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Freight carloads continue to slump

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Posted by Electroliner 1935 on Thursday, October 3, 2019 9:09 PM
Euclid
There has been some friction between the Administration and the Fed, with the Administration demanding that the Fed lower interest rates, which would improve the economy. At the same time, the Administration claims a roaring economy.......so here is the problem:  If the Fed lowers the rate to speed up a slow economy, it sends a signal that the economy needs a boost because it is too slow......it also sends the signal the economy is not roaring.

 

I'm getting dizzy from all the spin that spews out of the white house. The only way to tell if the current administartion is lying is if their lips are moving.

 

zardoz

Trump's business has much debt so he profits from low intrerest

 
 

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Posted by zardoz on Wednesday, October 2, 2019 2:06 PM

Euclid
There has been some friction between the Administration and the Fed, with the Administration demanding that the Fed lower interest rates, which would improve the economy. At the same time, the Administration claims a roaring economy.......so here is the problem:  If the Fed lowers the rate to speed up a slow economy, it sends a signal that the economy needs a boost because it is too slow......it also sends the signal the economy is not roaring.

I'm getting dizzy from all the spin that spews out of the white house. The only way to tell if the current administartion is lying is if their lips are moving.

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Wednesday, October 2, 2019 1:22 PM

Symptomatic doublespeak of an administration marked by prevarication and ignorance. 

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Posted by Euclid on Wednesday, October 2, 2019 1:17 PM

Ulrich
 

 

At least, to their credit, they saw this coming long ago. Why else would they be attempting to lower interest rates when the economy was supposedly on fire? The answer of course is that things aren't nearly as rosey as they're made out to be in the media at times. We in the freight industry have seen this coming for awhile..It will be a downturn, but we're overdue for one anyway as part of a natural economic cycle. 

 

There has been some friction between the Administration and the Fed, with the Administration demanding that the Fed lower interest rates, which would improve the economy.

At the same time, the Administration claims a roaring economy.  One can claim an economy roars, but an actual improvement adds credibility to the claim.  Hence, the call from the Administration for the Fed to lower rates.

However, when the Fed lowers rates, they do so to boost an economy that needs a boost. Roaring economies don’t need a boost. 

So here is the problem:  If the Fed lowers the rate to speed up a slow economy, it sends a signal that the economy needs a boost because it is too slow.  So, while lowering the rate would speed up the economy to bolster the claim that is a roaring economy, it also sends the signal the economy is not roaring.

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Wednesday, October 2, 2019 1:11 PM

Murphy Siding

 

 
Euclid

 

 
charlie hebdo

I do contract work for this sector and demand is dead flat.  I have never seen it this low before.  Prior to this, it slowed way down in the immediate wake of the bursting of the housing bubble.  But today it is as dead as a doornail. 

 

 

 

 

For which sector? Manufacturing, that this post refers to, or railroad freight, which the thread refers to?

 

 

They are positively correlated.

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Posted by Euclid on Wednesday, October 2, 2019 1:11 PM

Murphy Siding
 
Euclid

 

 
charlie hebdo

I do contract work for this sector and demand is dead flat.  I have never seen it this low before.  Prior to this, it slowed way down in the immediate wake of the bursting of the housing bubble.  But today it is as dead as a doornail. 

 

 

 

 

For which sector? Manufacturing, that this post refers to, or railroad freight, which the thread refers to?

 

 

For the manufacturing sector.  I do product development design. 

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Wednesday, October 2, 2019 12:51 PM

Euclid

 

 
charlie hebdo

I do contract work for this sector and demand is dead flat.  I have never seen it this low before.  Prior to this, it slowed way down in the immediate wake of the bursting of the housing bubble.  But today it is as dead as a doornail. 

 

 

For which sector? Manufacturing, that this post refers to, or railroad freight, which the thread refers to?

Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Wednesday, October 2, 2019 11:40 AM

zardoz

 

 
charlie hebdo
We have an idiot in charge of trade and manufacturing. 

 

We have an idiot in charge, period.

 

 

Although I agree that our stable genius is unbalanced,  I was referring to Peter Navarro, a fringe adviser in charge of manufacturing,  who keeps insisting everything is fine. 

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Posted by Ulrich on Wednesday, October 2, 2019 10:49 AM

zardoz

 

 
charlie hebdo
We have an idiot in charge of trade and manufacturing. 

 

We have an idiot in charge, period.

 

 

 

At least, to their credit, they saw this coming long ago. Why else would they be attempting to lower interest rates when the economy was supposedly on fire? The answer of course is that things aren't nearly as rosey as they're made out to be in the media at times. We in the freight industry have seen this coming for awhile..It will be a downturn, but we're overdue for one anyway as part of a natural economic cycle. 

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Posted by zardoz on Wednesday, October 2, 2019 10:36 AM

charlie hebdo
We have an idiot in charge of trade and manufacturing. 

We have an idiot in charge, period.

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Wednesday, October 2, 2019 9:59 AM

Lowest  US manufacturing levels since 2009.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/01/us-manufacturing-economy-contracts-to-worst-level-in-a-decade.html

 

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Posted by Euclid on Wednesday, October 2, 2019 9:51 AM

charlie hebdo

Manufacturing index is dropping like a lead balloon to the lowest level in years, yet Peter Navarro  continues to insist it is strong.  We have an idiot in charge of trade and manufacturing. 

U.S. companies with actual manufacturing in China have been told to immediately move out of that country.  Some of these are big companies such as Toro.  An implied order to move their manufacturing out of China is a very big deal.  Then we were told that the U.S. is seeking the means to make this order a legally mandatory order.  Is it any wonder there is a collapse of investment confidence in the U.S. manufacturing sector? 

I do contract work for this sector and demand is dead flat.  I have never seen it this low before.  Prior to this, it slowed way down in the immediate wake of the bursting of the housing bubble.  But today it is as dead as a doornail. 

Navarro has obsessive and radical ideas that morally demonize China as the cause of all our problems.  China probably feels blindsided by this sudden economic attack by the U.S.  They seem intent on just waiting it out because it is too radical to negotiate with. 

But the effects of this attack are naturally delayed.  So, this county will probably not wake up to what Navarro has done, until they see the delayed effects coming onto us like a giant tsunami wave.  By then it will be too late to stop it.   

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Wednesday, October 2, 2019 8:34 AM

Manufacturing index is dropping like a lead balloon to the lowest level in years, yet Peter Navarro  continues to insist it is strong.  We have an idiot in charge of trade and manufacturing. 

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Tuesday, September 17, 2019 12:11 PM

Coal usage in power generation continues to decline.  This link may have a paywall. 

https://digitaledition.chicagotribune.com/html5/mobile/production/default.aspx?pubid=3e7227b1-e3b7-4fac-aa07-5f943e58b4c5&edid=eb9ae930-ba92-4782-bcb4-4806201b4a37

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Tuesday, September 17, 2019 12:09 PM

zardoz

 

 
charlie hebdo
I recall the "Employee Owned" CNW.  Several posters here worked on it.  How did that work out? 

 

For the average production employee it was mostly a scam. The railroad had become so decrepit (Cheap & Nothing Works) that nobody really had any faith in management. So when the opportunity came along to purchase stock, few contract employees joined in--the vast majority of stock was bought by upper-management.

 

Of course, the joke was on the workers, as the stock split twice. I do not recall the factor of the second split (perhaps 4-to-1), but I do recall that the first split was 60-to-1. So if you invested $10,000 at the beginning of "Employee Ownership", you realized a final price of $2,400,000. For some reason, upper-management neglected to inform us grunts of the potential.

 

Wow!  Never knew that.  The newspapers did not publicize how little was owned by workers. Typical corporatism.  

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Posted by tin can on Tuesday, September 17, 2019 12:04 PM

All done to please Wall Street, and CSX investors.  Manipulating the operating ratio to look good is not sustainable.  But a railroad without customers is not a going concern, either.

Remember the tin can; the MKT's central Texas branch...
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Posted by BaltACD on Tuesday, September 17, 2019 11:58 AM

tin can

When you create a unique 'metric' no one can compare it to anything.  The uniqueness of EHH - nothing compares to him.

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

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Posted by tin can on Tuesday, September 17, 2019 11:41 AM

Interesting reading about CSX and PSR.  Customers are not happy.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/m/ebc411e6-4d9b-3b3a-9c2c-52e987117eea/special-report%3A-how-csx-is.html

Remember the tin can; the MKT's central Texas branch...
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Posted by zardoz on Tuesday, September 17, 2019 11:33 AM

charlie hebdo
I recall the "Employee Owned" CNW.  Several posters here worked on it.  How did that work out? 

For the average production employee it was mostly a scam. The railroad had become so decrepit (Cheap & Nothing Works) that nobody really had any faith in management. So when the opportunity came along to purchase stock, few contract employees joined in--the vast majority of stock was bought by upper-management.

Of course, the joke was on the workers, as the stock split twice. I do not recall the factor of the second split (perhaps 4-to-1), but I do recall that the first split was 60-to-1. So if you invested $10,000 at the beginning of "Employee Ownership", you realized a final price of $2,400,000. For some reason, upper-management neglected to inform us grunts of the potential.

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Tuesday, September 17, 2019 11:10 AM

We were referring to labor seats required by law as in Germany.  That has not happened here, your example notwithstanding.  I recall the "Employee Owned" CNW.  Several posters here worked on it.  How did that work out? 

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Posted by tree68 on Tuesday, September 17, 2019 7:21 AM

charlie hebdo
That's not going to happen here. 

Actually, it has.

I believe the location was a transmission plant in Livonia, MI.

Labor had to either work with management, or the factory was going to close.  Labor decided a job with slightly lower pay/benefits was better than no job at all.  The factory remained open.

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Posted by Psychot on Tuesday, September 17, 2019 1:30 AM

charlie hebdo

 

 
Psychot

 

 
charlie hebdo

 

 
zugmann

 

 
Psychot
Bingo. And the problem is exacerbated by the fact that we, as a country and a society, have done very little to help the workforce adjust to the emerging new reality.

 

And even if people do want to adjust/retrain, the simple fact we tie healthcare to our jobs mean that very few can take the opportunity/risk.

 

 

 

Standardized plans and public option with total portability should solve that problem.  Example: the German health insurance model. 

 

 

 

Another thing we could borrow from the Germans is cooperation between industry and unions, including giving the unions a seat on corporate boards. That would go a long way toward eliminating the destructive adversarial relationship between business and union labor which both sides had their part in creating.

 

 

 

That's not going to happen here. 

 

Probably not, but one can dream...

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Posted by CSSHEGEWISCH on Monday, September 16, 2019 7:13 AM

As the "gig economy" model used by Uber/Lyft amply demonstrates, the ultimate goal is to keep the labor force cheap and docile.  Gotta bust those unions.

The daily commute is part of everyday life but I get two rides a day out of it. Paul
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Posted by charlie hebdo on Sunday, September 15, 2019 10:54 AM

Psychot

 

 
charlie hebdo

 

 
zugmann

 

 
Psychot
Bingo. And the problem is exacerbated by the fact that we, as a country and a society, have done very little to help the workforce adjust to the emerging new reality.

 

And even if people do want to adjust/retrain, the simple fact we tie healthcare to our jobs mean that very few can take the opportunity/risk.

 

 

 

Standardized plans and public option with total portability should solve that problem.  Example: the German health insurance model. 

 

 

 

Another thing we could borrow from the Germans is cooperation between industry and unions, including giving the unions a seat on corporate boards. That would go a long way toward eliminating the destructive adversarial relationship between business and union labor which both sides had their part in creating.

 

That's not going to happen here. 

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Posted by Psychot on Sunday, September 15, 2019 2:59 AM

charlie hebdo

 

 
zugmann

 

 
Psychot
Bingo. And the problem is exacerbated by the fact that we, as a country and a society, have done very little to help the workforce adjust to the emerging new reality.

 

And even if people do want to adjust/retrain, the simple fact we tie healthcare to our jobs mean that very few can take the opportunity/risk.

 

 

 

Standardized plans and public option with total portability should solve that problem.  Example: the German health insurance model. 

 

Another thing we could borrow from the Germans is cooperation between industry and unions, including giving the unions a seat on corporate boards. That would go a long way toward eliminating the destructive adversarial relationship between business and union labor which both sides had their part in creating.

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Posted by Psychot on Sunday, September 15, 2019 2:54 AM

tree68

 

 
Psychot
And the problem is exacerbated by the fact that we, as a country and a society, have done very little to help the workforce adjust to the emerging new reality. 

 

That, and the fact that for too many years labor enthusiastically embraced Eugene Debs' exhortation in the early days of union organization.

"More!"

We priced ourselves out of the world labor market years ago, during that time when we were the dominant economic force in the world.  Now we're paying the price.

 

 

Very true, and there’s no better example than unions forcing railroads to keep 5-man train crews for decades after diesel locomotives and air brakes made the positions of fireman and brakeman obsolete. I remember watching cabooses roll by with the rear brakeman sitting up in the cupola watching the scenery go by and thinking “man, that’s a good gig if you can get it.”

Unions came about for a very good reason, because industrial workers were being exploited and mistreated. But there’s no question they overstepped their bounds—and in doing so, they did a great disservice to their members in the long run.

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Posted by BaltACD on Friday, September 13, 2019 8:29 PM

charlie hebdo
 
zugmann 
Psychot
Bingo. And the problem is exacerbated by the fact that we, as a country and a society, have done very little to help the workforce adjust to the emerging new reality. 

And even if people do want to adjust/retrain, the simple fact we tie healthcare to our jobs mean that very few can take the opportunity/risk. 

Standardized plans and public option with total portability should solve that problem.  Example: the German health insurance model. 

In the USA we can't even agree on Yard or Meters, and have wrecked some spacecraft because of the differences.

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Friday, September 13, 2019 7:23 PM

matthewsaggie

If you get to Dayton Ohio be sure to visit the Packard museum there. They built Merlin's under license from R-R during the war for the P-51 and ot

hers. Interesting exhibit of some of the early problems, such as converting the plans from metric to english, problems with the prototypes that R-R provided that didn't match the plans, reflecting changes that had been made on the shop floor on the fly there in Derby but not documented, etc. Fascinating exhibit. They also have a display of Packard PT boat engines, which were enormous. 

 

Thanks for the informative.  I always thought RR and all British products were still on Imperial measures at that time. 

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Friday, September 13, 2019 7:21 PM

zugmann

 

 
Psychot
Bingo. And the problem is exacerbated by the fact that we, as a country and a society, have done very little to help the workforce adjust to the emerging new reality.

 

And even if people do want to adjust/retrain, the simple fact we tie healthcare to our jobs mean that very few can take the opportunity/risk.

 

Standardized plans and public option with total portability should solve that problem.  Example: the German health insurance model. 

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