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Self-Driving Vehicles -- Are They that Great a Threat?

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Posted by BaltACD on Wednesday, October 26, 2016 8:02 PM

I wonder how self driving vehicles handle crossbuck crossings?  

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Posted by samfp1943 on Wednesday, October 26, 2016 9:06 PM

To sort of 'steer' this topic back to its original direction....

First: I'd like top say that personally, I am not sure I would embrace this technology [self-driving], but it seems to be the wave of the future.It will have companies who will use it; for the various reansons we have discussed in Threads here before:(ie; Driver shortages, etc.) Maybe they'll put a couple of the autonomous units together with only one driver in control?

"Self-Driving Vehicles -- Are They that Great a Threat?" 

Was watching some Television show in the last couple of days and was presented with a story of a new endeavor in Autonomous Heavy Vehicles.  So here it is:

Otto Autonomous Truck

 

 

Link @ https://www.trucks.com/2016/08/16/otto-autonomous-truck-tech/

"Otto Moving with ‘Urgency’ to Introduce Autonomous Truck Tech"

 

 

 

 


 

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Posted by schlimm on Wednesday, October 26, 2016 9:17 PM

Truckers probably do not like that company.

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Posted by Euclid on Wednesday, October 26, 2016 9:36 PM

What is the point of having a self-driving truck that still has a human driver on board?

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Posted by Semper Vaporo on Wednesday, October 26, 2016 9:47 PM

 

I saw the TV report where the OTTO truck was shown and there was a photo of the "driver required to be in the truck to take over in an emergency"... but the driver was sitting in the sleeper section of the cab... NOWHERE near the controls to take over in the event of an emergency!

I suppose this driver will also need to be prescient so they can get out of the sleeper portion and into the driver's seat to be there for the emergency when it arises.

I also seriously doubt if the driver would even be awake while sitting in the driver's seat doing nothing but watching the road go by.  The driver needs to be involved in the act of driving in order to be cognizant of the situation when the emergency arises.

 

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Posted by wanswheel on Wednesday, October 26, 2016 10:02 PM

Drivers won’t cease to ‘drive,’ they’ll just adjust.

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Posted by 466lex on Wednesday, October 26, 2016 10:25 PM
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Posted by Semper Vaporo on Wednesday, October 26, 2016 10:27 PM

@wanswheel ... what is with the Vanna White videos?  What do they have to do with the subject at hand?

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Posted by garr on Wednesday, October 26, 2016 11:57 PM

After reading thru this thread in one sitting, I will summarize my take and solution. 

Ultimately we will have driverless vehicles, both commercial and private. The ruling will come down from the federal government in the form of the ADA, no not the teeth group, but the Affordable Driving Act. The $2500 saved by each family will go into a federal fund to pay all the displaced truckers, engineers, cab drivers, and couriers each year. Any shortfalls will be covered in the fashion the federal government has become comfortable with, borrowing and deficits and additions to the national debt. (This is fully sarcasm, however, unfortunately, it is probably closer to the truth in the post '00 world than most would like to admit).

The obvious question is, if a job is going to be automated, why can the geniuses not find a way to automate a bureaucrats job? Lord knows it is about time the D.C. area experienced a recession so they will have empathy on the people paying their salaries.

 

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Posted by wanswheel on Thursday, October 27, 2016 12:46 AM

Semper Vaporo

@wanswheel ... what is with the Vanna White videos?  What do they have to do with the subject at hand?

Well, it’s a metaphor. See, Vanna is the driver and the letterboard is the driverless vehicle. Because in the old days she had to actually physically turn the letters or they couldn’t possibly appear. Of course someone (or something) still has to touch the letters. Maybe a robot.

http://www.law.uh.edu/faculty/mburke/Classes/Property_Current_Year/White_v_Samsung.pdf

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Posted by Ulrich on Thursday, October 27, 2016 10:34 AM

Euclid

What is the point of having a self-driving truck that still has a human driver on board?

 

Someone still has to secure/unsecure the load as well as to perform a number of other functions that a robot cannot yet do. Eventually trucks may become driverless, but in the meantime the emphsis will be on "dumbing down" the job as much as possible so that any idiot can do it. This is what Henry Ford was after when he championed the assembly line.. no smart business owner wants to be dependent on skilled labor.

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Posted by tree68 on Thursday, October 27, 2016 11:16 AM

wanswheel
Of course someone (or something) still has to touch the letters. Maybe a robot.

Or a technician in the "back room."  Throw in some fancy transition graphics and having a person even have to touch the screen becomes superfluous.  And if that nameless technician is never seen on the air, you don't have to pay him/her scale for the appearance.

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Posted by Euclid on Thursday, October 27, 2016 11:39 AM

Ulrich
 
Euclid

What is the point of having a self-driving truck that still has a human driver on board?

 

 

 

Someone still has to secure/unsecure the load as well as to perform a number of other functions that a robot cannot yet do. Eventually trucks may become driverless, but in the meantime the emphsis will be on "dumbing down" the job as much as possible so that any idiot can do it. This is what Henry Ford was after when he championed the assembly line.. no smart business owner wants to be dependent on skilled labor.

 

Well then will this "idiot" doing the "dumbed down" job be the one who is making sure that the brilliant automatic system is working correctly? 

According to the article, that is the purpose of having a human on board; that is to be a backup in case the autmatic system fails. 

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Posted by tree68 on Thursday, October 27, 2016 12:00 PM

Euclid
Well then will this "idiot" doing the "dumbed down" job be the one who is making sure that the brilliant automatic system is working correctly? 

I would opine that the system itself will be monitored remotely.  The person on board will be there only to assist with troubleshooting or to move the vehicle to a safe location if necessary.  If they are not sitting in the "driver's seat," they will be of little use should an emergency requiring instantaneous response crop up.

It's possible that you might see cabs with little more than "hostler's controls" in them.

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Posted by Semper Vaporo on Thursday, October 27, 2016 12:04 PM

tree68
 
wanswheel
Of course someone (or something) still has to touch the letters. Maybe a robot.

Who needs a technician in the back room?  With today's voice recognition abilities, just let a computer listen to the contestants and light the letters they name!

Then the savvy cheater contestant just needs an ear piece to listen to someone in the audience that is keying into an app the blank spaces and letters as they appear, doing a web search for the word or phrase, telling them what letter to guess or the solution to the puzzle.  Shades of IBM's "Watson" on Jeopardy.  :-)

 

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Posted by Euclid on Thursday, October 27, 2016 12:30 PM

From the above linked article, here is what they say about the onboard driver:

“Their vehicles are designed to drive from “exit to exit” on major highways, always with a driver on board to monitor progress and be ready to take over in an emergency. Otto’s technology is intended to improve safety and reduce driver fatigue on long trips,”

From that, I conclude that the purpose is not to save money by eliminating the driver.  It is only to add safety to the present human-driven trucks, and to make the on-board driver more comfortable and less subject to fatigue.  

So when you retain a qualified driver for each trip; plus adding a large, new technological responsibility/qualification to that driver; plus add all the cost of the new technology--  when you add all of that up, you have a truck transports system that is far more costly than the current bare bones human driver manual system.  Therefore, adding this system to your trucking business will make it impossible for you to compete with the companies that retain manual drivers. 

So why would a company to this?  The only net return on the automatic system is the added safety.  Is that enough to justify the conversion? 

It will be justified when you consider this:  When this is all perfected and proven, the government will mandate it as safety equipment for all trucking companies. To some extent, it will reduce cost because of a reduction of crashes.  And if there is any net increase in costs, they will be passed on to the consumer.  There will be nothing to prevent this because all companies will be under the same universal mandate.  So there will be no way for one company to underprice another on a competitive basis. 

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Posted by BaltACD on Thursday, October 27, 2016 12:38 PM

Euclid
From that, I conclude that the purpose is not to save money by eliminating the driver.  It is only to add safety to the present human-driven trucks, and to make the on-board driver more comfortable and less subject to fatigue.

If you believe that - do I ever have something to sell you!

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Posted by Euclid on Thursday, October 27, 2016 1:06 PM

BaltACD
 
Euclid
From that, I conclude that the purpose is not to save money by eliminating the driver.  It is only to add safety to the present human-driven trucks, and to make the on-board driver more comfortable and less subject to fatigue.

 

 

If you believe that - do I ever have something to sell you!

 

My point is only about what the promoters claim.  It has nothing to do with what I believe.  All of this vehicle automation cannot be separated from government, and there is no way that the team of government/labor unions is going to let drivers be eliminated. 

If anything, where it leads to is a fully automatic self-driving truck with a fully compensated "driver" on board who will not back up the automatic system under any circumstances.

In other articles related to this, there is an emerging consensus that vehicles must be either 100% manually driven or 100% automacially driven.  Earlier concepts that combine the two are being recognized as a bad approach. 

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Posted by challenger3980 on Thursday, October 27, 2016 1:08 PM

[quote user="BaltACD"]

 

 
Euclid
From that, I conclude that the purpose is not to save money by eliminating the driver.  It is only to add safety to the present human-driven trucks, and to make the on-board driver more comfortable and less subject to fatigue.

 

 

If you believe that - do I ever have something to sell you!

 

[/quote

 

Balt, you're not trying to sell him the same bridge I am are you?

If he is not interested in a bridge, I also have some Nice Oceanfront property for sale, just outside of Phoenix, AZ Wink

As I have posted before, I have been driving tractor/trailer for more than 28 years, and I have about another 15 years left, I am NOT worried about my job being replaced by a self driving truck, during my expected career.

 Will it SOME DAY happen, Possibly, but at 51 years old, I doubt that I will see fully autonomous trucks in my LIFETIME. I can see collision avoidance systems being likely. I can also invision vehicles communicating with each other, and not allowing a driver to follow to closely, or change lanes into/to close to another vehicle. People are NOT going to like having any of their control taken away, but I can see the safety advantages of vehicles being "Aware" of surrounding vehicles, and not allowing an unsafe manuever.

Doug

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Posted by BaltACD on Thursday, October 27, 2016 1:17 PM

Euclid
BaltACD
Euclid

If you believe that - do I ever have something to sell you!

My point is only about what the promoters claim.  It has nothing to do with what I believe.  All of this vehicle automation cannot be separated from government, and there is no way that the team of government/labor unions is going to let drivers be eliminated. 

If anything, where it leads to is a fully automatic self-driving truck with a fully compensated "driver" on board who will not back up the automatic system under any circumstances.

In other articles related to this, there is an emerging consensus that vehicles must be either 100% manually driven or 100% automacially driven.  Earlier concepts that combine the two are being recognized as a bad approach.

The purpose of the World is to accomplish something and save money in achieving the accomplishment.

Whenever someone says its not about the money - it is only about the money!

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Posted by Euclid on Thursday, October 27, 2016 2:01 PM

BaltACD
 
Euclid
BaltACD
Euclid

If you believe that - do I ever have something to sell you!

My point is only about what the promoters claim.  It has nothing to do with what I believe.  All of this vehicle automation cannot be separated from government, and there is no way that the team of government/labor unions is going to let drivers be eliminated. 

If anything, where it leads to is a fully automatic self-driving truck with a fully compensated "driver" on board who will not back up the automatic system under any circumstances.

In other articles related to this, there is an emerging consensus that vehicles must be either 100% manually driven or 100% automacially driven.  Earlier concepts that combine the two are being recognized as a bad approach.

 

The purpose of the World is to accomplish something and save money in achieving the accomplishment.

Whenever someone says its not about the money - it is only about the money!

 

Nobody has said that it is NOT about the money.  What I said is this: "From that [the statement by the developers], I conclude that the purpose is not to save money by eliminating the driver."

They SAY they do not intend to eliminate the drivers.  Sure there will be money made with this.  A lot of money will be made by the developers and vendors of the automatic equipment.  The government will gain the prosperity of vast expansion to administer the regulations, inspections, and fees.  The consumers of transportation, however, will not make money.  They will pay for the whole thing.   

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Posted by azrail on Thursday, October 27, 2016 3:07 PM

What happens when Bambi, or his cousin Bullwinkle up North, decides to take a stroll across the road in front of Otto? Or the sudden wind/dust storms we get out West?

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Posted by Ulrich on Thursday, October 27, 2016 3:16 PM

Eventually the driver will be eliminated altogether, but imho that's a couple of decades off. In the mean time the driver will become more of a systems monitor and a "troubleshooter".. i.e. someone who can apply the spring brakes, put out the reflective safety triangles,  and call 911 for help. Of course, the whole idea is to save money... labor is the largest cost component in trucking. Cut it down by a) reducing the need for skilled labor and 2) farther down the road eliminate the labor altogether where possible. 

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Posted by CandOforprogress2 on Thursday, October 27, 2016 3:26 PM

Self Driving buses and trucks should be coming soon. A "bus train" that does not need tracks that is in tandem with the bus in front  of it. A self driving truck on its own dedicated road from the port to the railhead would be next.

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Posted by rdamon on Thursday, October 27, 2016 3:46 PM

Or one driver will "command" more than truck.

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Posted by matthewsaggie on Thursday, October 27, 2016 3:57 PM

Watching this even strengthens my concern. How can you expect someone to stay reasonably alert to problems after sitting there doing nothing but looking ahead hour after hour. The actual act of driving helps keep me alert and awake. These guys will be daydreaming or snoozing off after 15 minutes of this.

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Posted by zugmann on Thursday, October 27, 2016 5:49 PM

matthewsaggie

Watching this even strengthens my concern. How can you expect someone to stay reasonably alert to problems after sitting there doing nothing but looking ahead hour after hour. The actual act of driving helps keep me alert and awake. These guys will be daydreaming or snoozing off after 15 minutes of this.

 

Inward facing cameras will solve that.

It's been fun.  But it isn't much fun anymore.   Signing off for now. 


  

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Posted by dakotafred on Thursday, October 27, 2016 7:53 PM

matthewsaggie

Watching this even strengthens my concern. How can you expect someone to stay reasonably alert to problems after sitting there doing nothing but looking ahead hour after hour. The actual act of driving helps keep me alert and awake. These guys will be daydreaming or snoozing off after 15 minutes of this.

 

Yes -- in cars and trucks both, we're talking the ultimate distracted driver. This is why the whole proposal is absurd, "something to sell, not to buy," as a frank bartender said of his own goods.

On rails? Semi-practical at best, for freight; for passengers, never.

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Posted by tree68 on Thursday, October 27, 2016 8:40 PM

I'm reminded of the old saw about a guy who called up an HVAC company to work on his furnace.  He told them he had to be there, whereupon they said their folks were competent and it would be fine if it was his wife.

He advised them that they didn't understand.  Only he knew where the real thermostat was - the other was a dummy for his wife to use...

(OK, so it's a little dated...)

That said - just install a "dummy" set of controls.  The "driver" can drive, but won't actually be controlling the vehicle unless he somehow over-rides the computer...  Kinda like a video game...

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Posted by BaltACD on Thursday, October 27, 2016 8:46 PM

dakotafred
matthewsaggie

Watching this even strengthens my concern. How can you expect someone to stay reasonably alert to problems after sitting there doing nothing but looking ahead hour after hour. The actual act of driving helps keep me alert and awake. These guys will be daydreaming or snoozing off after 15 minutes of this.

Yes -- in cars and trucks both, we're talking the ultimate distracted driver. This is why the whole proposal is absurd, "something to sell, not to buy," as a frank bartender said of his own goods.

On rails? Semi-practical at best, for freight; for passengers, never.

More practical for passenger than freight account less mechanical issues with passenger trains than freight trains. 

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