Recently, no less an eminence than our own Fred Frailey expressed some concern over the possibility of the development of "self-driving" (autonomous) autos and trucks. This subject has drawn a cionsiderable amount of attention at City-Data.com, a site I've been posting on regularly for the past five years. Below is a link to a long thread:
http://www.city-data.com/forum/automotive/2077630-do-you-want-self-driving-car.html
The original poster of the discussion above probably typifies the most vocal of the "self-drving" advocacy -- a 20-something male with the anxiety issues which seem to be incerasingly common among young men raised in single-parent, female-headed households.
Having spent the earliest years of my career in trucking, and continuing to follow industry trends, I really think a lot of years are going to pass before autonomous trucks will pose much of a threat. Within our own favorite industry, little progress has been made toward auronomous rail movements, despite the much smaller route structure, fixed right-of-way and guidance, and well-developed Centralized Traffic Contol systems. When the additional factors of weather, much more frequent movements, and the programming needed to negotiate as simple a matter as a left turn, we're a very long way from implementation -- even in streets with a stable grid pattern, or the closed confines involved in spotting trailers at dock doors.
Still, it seems that every couple of months, some bubbly, outgoing gadfly who majored in Broadcasting or Journalism will show up on a tea-time talk show to reassure Oprah, Ellen or Katie that "a self-driving car will be here in five years" -- and that started about three years ago.
The day might one day come when a hybrid of rail and highway transit will move all our heavy freight in driverless vehicles -- but I doubt that anyone now alive will be around to witness it. And even if it should evolve, It's going to be just about as stimulating as the technology that serves us at present.
If a lawyer that works for a company that builds a self driving car lets them do it they will keep other lawyers busy suing them when things go wrong!
Eddie Sandthat "a self-driving car will be here in five years" -- and that started about three years ago.
Well, they are here now. I'm sure you're aware of the fleet of self-driving Fusions Uber released in Pittsburgh. The cars seem to be pretty much capable now. It's the people that are hesitant and the insurance companies trying to figure out how to insure the things that are holding up mass integration.
Even with the bugs, they're probably better than most of the morons trying to drive while screwing with their phones.
It's been fun. But it isn't much fun anymore. Signing off for now.
The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer, any other railroad, company, or person.t fun any
zugmannEven with the bugs, they're probably better than most of the morons trying to drive while screwing with their phones.
AMEN!
Norm
Norm48327 zugmann Even with the bugs, they're probably better than most of the morons trying to drive while screwing with their phones. AMEN!
zugmann Even with the bugs, they're probably better than most of the morons trying to drive while screwing with their phones.
She who has no signature! cinscocom-tmw
Mookie Norm48327 zugmann Even with the bugs, they're probably better than most of the morons trying to drive while screwing with their phones. AMEN! +2
+2
+3
Except I like to drive. Can't see how my corvette will be much fun in self drive! Guess I grew up when cars were cool, you know, like my 67' VW Beetle or my 69' Chevelle SS396 or even my original high scool car, a 1940 Chevy Special Delux with 42,000 original miles only driven to church on Sunday by a little old lady, really!
It seems to me that self-driving vehicles are being promoted heavily by Elon Musk and other technophiles who seem to believe that advanced technology will solve the world's problems or have a pathological need to appear to be on the cutting edge of such advances.
After having read the threads related to train-handling and the infinite number of variables involved, I would think that Musk and his ilk have not given much thought to the similar number of variables involved in driving a vehicle in traffic, dealing with the kid trying to cross a four-lane arterial street in mid-block on his bicycle, the out-of-town driver who suddenly needs to make a right turn from the left lane, etc., etc., etc.
I can see this Chip 'n Dale scenario when two of the are at a four way stop.
"After you".
"No, after you".
zugmannWell, they are here now. I'm sure you're aware of the fleet of self-driving Fusions Uber released in Pittsburgh. The cars seem to be pretty much capable now. It's the people that are hesitant and the insurance companies trying to figure out how to insure the things that are holding up mass integration. Even with the bugs, they're probably better than most of the morons trying to drive while screwing with their phones.
They are and rapidly improving. If cars can self drive on highways with the need to steer and avoid other vehicles, often driven by fools, can engineerless trains be far off?
C&NW, CA&E, MILW, CGW and IC fan
Tesla has their own issues right now. They are being sued for the first fatal accident in Flordia when a Tesla car on Auto drive under rode a Tractor Trailer making a turn. It turned out the cars Autodrive system was programmed from the Factory to ignore large Vertical overhead obstructions in front of it to not panic over road signs. Trouble was it ran under a Trailer and decapitated the driver of the Tesla and never applied the brakes of the car.
Shadow the Cats owner Tesla has their own issues right now. They are being sued for the first fatal accident in Flordia when a Tesla car on Auto drive under rode a Tractor Trailer making a turn. It turned out the cars Autodrive system was programmed from the Factory to ignore large Vertical overhead obstructions in front of it to not panic over road signs. Trouble was it ran under a Trailer and decapitated the driver of the Tesla and never applied the brakes of the car.
Do you know the rules of capitalization?
schlimm zugmann Well, they are here now. I'm sure you're aware of the fleet of self-driving Fusions Uber released in Pittsburgh. The cars seem to be pretty much capable now. It's the people that are hesitant and the insurance companies trying to figure out how to insure the things that are holding up mass integration. Even with the bugs, they're probably better than most of the morons trying to drive while screwing with their phones. They are and rapidly improving. If cars can self drive on highways with the need to steer and avoid other vehicles, often driven by fools, can engineerless trains be far off?
zugmann Well, they are here now. I'm sure you're aware of the fleet of self-driving Fusions Uber released in Pittsburgh. The cars seem to be pretty much capable now. It's the people that are hesitant and the insurance companies trying to figure out how to insure the things that are holding up mass integration. Even with the bugs, they're probably better than most of the morons trying to drive while screwing with their phones.
The technology already exists and has been used on some isolated mining railroads all the way back to the late 1960's.
Getting regulatory approval to run unmanned trains over American freight mainlines with frequent grade crossings however, is a whole other ballgame, especially where any kind of Hazmat is concerned..
"I Often Dream of Trains"-From the Album of the Same Name by Robyn Hitchcock
AI is advancing as rapidly as computer chips and processors were advancing in the late 80's until recently. Before we know it, it'll be running our lives. Some will welcome it, some will be threatened by it.
I expect people-moving conveyances in built-up areas, urban areas, to be fully automated within a decade, maybe all the way out to two. They'll prove to be so utile and safe that personal automobiles will be banned...no licenses will be issued to humans. We screw up too much. Also, insurance will be so costly that only the wealthiest will be ablel to afford to drive their own vehicles in traffic...if legally allowed at all.
It's what I expect. Once the Teslas and the Bill Gates and others get wind in their sails, the world around them marches in step within a decade or so.
It's one thing for a car /truck to steer itself down the four lane on its own... but I would really like to see how they perform on skinny two lane roads in the wintertime. Also, I'd like to see it chain down its own load of steel and tarp it. There's alot more to driving than steering down a wide and dry pavement. We're probably very close to vehicles that have autopilot capabilities, but we're probably still a few decades away from completely autonomous vehicles that don't require any drivers.
Far out! .... und Seig Hiel?
This sort of thing -- the oversimplification, the unrealistically short time horizons, and especially, the appeal to the desire for "escape from freedom" which seems to be an epidemic among over-sheltered youngsters today, is the biggest reason why I fear for the future of what we have come to call the Enlightenment, and the Western tradition of democracy, pluralism, and freedom of expression.
Forget the self driving car.. keep your health by walking and biking whenever possible. I'd rather that than being ferried about by a robot car and being 200 lbs overweight.
No mass transit in my area and I'm NOT pushing my groceries five miles home in the winter.
selectorI expect people-moving conveyances in built-up areas, urban areas, to be fully automated within a decade, maybe all the way out to two. They'll prove to be so utile and safe that personal automobiles will be banned...no licenses will be issued to humans. We screw up too much. Also, insurance will be so costly that only the wealthiest will be ablel to afford to drive their own vehicles in traffic...if legally allowed at all.
I have a different view on this. I, and a bunch people that I know, enjoy driving, and the focus that it requires as a form of relaxation. (Several private pilots I know state this as part of the reason they love to fly. You think about other things and...) I think it is more likely that a manual mode will persist, but with computer protections against the bad choices we humans make.
PUBLIC MOTORS for the MOTORING PUBLIC
A self-driving car is the very last thing I would want. What is striking about the self-driving car movement is the degree to which it is overpromised by all the players including the potential users, the manufacturers, and the government.
This is being sold like utopianism. Self-driving cars will eliminate highway deaths, and their owners will ride in perfect leisure. The only problem is that these self-driving cars will require a lot of control. And that control will come from vast controlling systems and bureaucracies outside of the car, and like everything else, it will be outside of the control of the people in the car.
The roads and highways are public sector, and current driven vehicles are private sector. With self-driving cars will come a giant control and regulatory infrastructure that is not onboard the vehicle. I suspect that infrastructure will be government-run, public sector. The self-driving car itself will probably be public sector infrastructure that rented or leased to users on an on demand basis. Anything as complex and interconnected as a self-driving car will have to be standardized to fit into that interconnectedness.
People will miss the good old days when they could hop into their own happy little personal car and go anywhere, anytime, with no strings attached. Self-driving cars will be more like riding the bus, although a smaller bus.
And because of the safety pretext, self-driving cars will become as mandatory as seat belts. People with conventional, driven cars will not have to worry about the risk of sharing the road with self-driving cars because, as a matter of public safety, conventional, driven cars will not be allowed.
NorthWest and Euclid are on the right track. We already have self-driving cars ... cars driven by OURSELVES. That's what 'automobile' means. Not by horses, not by computers, but by free-born Americans.
I think the car has helped shape American character more than anything since Lexington and Concord ... more even than railroads and the passenger train. Once Americans could go where they wanted, when they wanted, without needing to consult a timetable or hitch up a horse ... the sky was the limit!
The projected new car turns us into passengers once more. If that's what you want, take a cab, bus or train. I'd rather match wits with even a stupid or distracted driver than with a computer chip reacting to an abstract rather than real-life situation.
And allow me to add my voice to the previous three. The responsible private citizen has access to four basic tools by which (s)he can defend him/herself aginst intrusions from overcentralized tyranny. The first three -- the telephone, the personal computer, and the private vehicle -- have all come under closer scrutiny from Big Brother/Sister? in recent years. And is anyone else familiar with the way telephone calls had to be made (and eavesdropped upon) from "public" exchanges in the pre-glasnost Soviet Union?
The fourth tool of self-defense is, obviously, a firearm in private hands. And I can assure everyone here that those who think they know what's best for all of us will save their harshest tactics for the seizure and control of that last-ditch safeguard; like everyone else, I hope and pray it won't come to that, but (s)he who expects the worst isn't always disappointed.
ndbprrOnce it is perfected it will be a tremendous asset to us older people. Many older people drive far beyond when they should out of necessity. It could allow seniors to stay in their homes for a decade or more with a self driving car for trips to the supermarket or church services
Thank you. This is often overlooked when talking about self-driving cars.
We'll see how the Uber self-driving Fusions do in the snow in Pittsburgh this winter. I'm very curious.
It's one thing for people that grew up in the 60s when gas was cheap and cars were cool. Today? There's little fun in everyday, normal driving. There's times I wish I could jump in my truck after a long day at work and tell the damned thing to drive me home.
PS> Maybe the autobot cars could actually STAY in their lane going around curves. Because most people seem incapable of that anymore. If I had a dollar every time I almost went head-on with some moron that can't be bothered to stay on their side of the yellow...
dakotafredThe projected new car turns us into passengers once more. If that's what you want, take a cab, bus or train.
Not convenient or accessible to a lot of people. That's the problem - we built a society based on the autmobile. So what happens when that person can't drive anymore? You force them into an urban area where they don't want to live? Seems kind of anti-American. So someone is creating a product based on a demand. Seems pretty basic.
I like driving my trucks, too, but I don't think the technology is going to stop.
Eddie Sand And allow me to add my voice to the previous three. The responsible private citizen has access to four basic tools by which (s)he can defend him/herself aginst intrusions from overcentralized tyranny. The first three -- the telephone, the personal computer, and the private vehicle -- have all come under closer scrutiny from Big Brother/Sister? in recent years. And is anyone else familiar with the way telephone calls had to be made (and eavesdropped upon) from "public" exchanges in the pre-glasnost Soviet Union? The fourth tool of self-defense is, obviously, a firearm in private hands. And I can assure everyone here that those who think they know what's best for all of us will save their harshest tactics for the seizure and control of that last-ditch safeguard; like everyone else, I hope and pray it won't come to that, but (s)he who expects the worst isn't always disappointed.
Wow! Been drinking paranoia-aide?
And people with disabilities. My son has a part time job and a disability. He cannot drive. A driverless car would give him independence from having to rely on us for transportation. If he wanted to go the movies, he could go to the movies, if he wanted to go to the store he could go to the store, if he wanted to go to church he could go to church.
Dave H. Painted side goes up. My website : wnbranch.com
dehusman ndbprr Once it is perfected it will be a tremendous asset to us older people. Many older people drive far beyond when they should out of necessity. It could allow seniors to stay in their homes for a decade or more with a self driving car for trips to the supermarket or church services And people with disabilities. My son has a part time job and a disability. He cannot drive. A driverless car would give him independence from having to rely on us for transportation. If he wanted to go the movies, he could go to the movies, if he wanted to go to the store he could go to the store, if he wanted to go to church he could go to church.
ndbprr Once it is perfected it will be a tremendous asset to us older people. Many older people drive far beyond when they should out of necessity. It could allow seniors to stay in their homes for a decade or more with a self driving car for trips to the supermarket or church services
All of the above. And as the technology improves, it could improve highway safety better for most folks. Also, it could make the commute less stressful.
Of course we might still have the would-be Dale Earnhardts driving their oversized pickup trucks like it was a slalom course.
My reservations aren't about the concept of autonomous vehicles; only with the disturbing fact that some new technologies seem to present new possibilities for further erosion of personal autonomy and privacy; remember that Orwell's 1984 was based largely on the unrealistic (at his time) premise of two-way television. And unfortunately, technology has likewise moved us closer to that scenario; compromise of individual liberties is sometimes "sold" to the less-self-reliant in the form of appeals to security and convenience.
I don't want this thread to devolve into an ideological flame-fest; but the development of some forms of centralized control is often about power -- consider the implications of dispatching authority on several major rail systems being consolidated in a single location.
"Remember, power tends to corrupt -- and absolute power corrupts absolutely." (John Dahlberg, Lord Acton)
I have never met anyone who has or works with computers that has never had a problem with said device. (It seems anymore that most mechanical problems on locomotives are computer related.) Yet most people are so quick to let computers do everything for them.
The maintenance on driverless vehicles, especially if the progress like some hope to having no occupant input (no steering wheel) is going to have to be perfect. (And expensive.) Some systems aren't going to be able to fail and then fixed later. They will have to be maintained so they don't fail in the first place. I have my doubts in that respect.
Jeff
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In the interest of fairness, I do hope that there will be self-driving motorcycles that will wiz in and out of lanes at a high rate of speed. I don't know that they would necessarily be carrying Uber type passengers or riders at all. Perhaps just a flaming skeleton that looks like Nicholas Cage would be sufficient to keep the excitement level up to what I’m used to on our city streets.
Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.
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