Mention of driverless cars and trucks and reliance on GPS reminds me of an experience I had in South Dakota a few years ago. My wife was using her Garmin and my brother-in-law was using his TomTom in the back seat. They programmed both devices to take us to a restaurant. Besides making the driver (me) crazy with simultaneous conflicting directions, we discovered that they were both leading us in a big circle ... in opposite directions! Never did find that restaurant and had to settle for a greasy spoon.
ChuckAllen, TX
schlimmOut resident accountant(s) could speak better to this, but it seems the railroads will decide to move to a partially automated system on PTC lines if the additional investment needed was less over a given period of time (20 years) than the savings in labor costs and savings from not having to stop for crew changes. There may well be other savings and the incremental cost of full automation may be astronomical, but all those dollars and cents factors will be the determining ones.
Railroads don't invest many millions of dollars just because there's a savings. It will be far more complicated than just "will this save us money and if it does, let's do it". Take a look at that Conrail electrification article in a recent issue of Trains for the analysis of a massive capital budget that would probably pale compared to major automation of a rail system. There was never any question that it would save money. But the financials simply didn't work out to justify it.
They're no different than we are, it's just on a much larger scale. My house has poor insulation and windows that are anything but energy efficient. Were I to rectify that, it would only be a few short years before it paid for itself and started saving me money.
But first I need access to capital to fund that work. And if that capital is available, it needs to be the best use of that capital. If there's something more valuable I could put those resources towards that would benefit me more, obviously the money if it's available will go elsewhere.
No one, from the personal level all the way up to the corporate level, can do everything that's projected to show a positive return on the balance sheet. There just isn't enough money so little things called capital availability and return on investment come into play. It's not good enough that it merely shows a profit.
BroadwayLion Leo_Ames BroadwayLion An automated train with no crew would not have caused an accident like this, because it would not have to be parked overnight... Just keep on running. Use your imagination a bit. What makes you think that just because a train is automated that it would never runaway, never spend time parked out on the line or in a siding, etc? What you say, is of course true. But giving the train over to automation makes it safer, not less safe. In the Lac Megantic example, the train was shut down for the night. An automated train would not be shut down, even if it were held on a siding, as it would have to be, it would still be fully powered up and have plenty of air to maintain the brakes.
Leo_Ames BroadwayLion An automated train with no crew would not have caused an accident like this, because it would not have to be parked overnight... Just keep on running. Use your imagination a bit. What makes you think that just because a train is automated that it would never runaway, never spend time parked out on the line or in a siding, etc?
BroadwayLion An automated train with no crew would not have caused an accident like this, because it would not have to be parked overnight... Just keep on running.
An automated train with no crew would not have caused an accident like this, because it would not have to be parked overnight... Just keep on running.
Use your imagination a bit. What makes you think that just because a train is automated that it would never runaway, never spend time parked out on the line or in a siding, etc?
What you say, is of course true. But giving the train over to automation makes it safer, not less safe. In the Lac Megantic example, the train was shut down for the night. An automated train would not be shut down, even if it were held on a siding, as it would have to be, it would still be fully powered up and have plenty of air to maintain the brakes.
What makes you think that? Again, use your imagination. What about automation makes you think that things can't go wrong, that trains don't have to stop, that malfunctions can't occur, that the human element still couldn't cause issues, etc?
Particularly what some have discussed in here in regard to the airlines where automation makes everyday operation more efficient and safer, but when it returns to the hands of humans in an emergency, it sometimes leaves them poorly prepared to handle something that a pilot decades ago would have had no issues with.
Introduce variability into your model railroad and watch. Railroads in real life are far from closed systems and have a lot of variability to deal with that makes automation extremely difficulty and far into the future. Real life isn't static like your model railroad essentially is.
JuniathaMy car to me : " Oh , June , I'll just go to the gas station , ok ?" Me : " What ? again? you've been there only yesterday !?" Car : " Uhm , well , yes .. but it's more for the social side of it .. you see .." " Why , whom are you going to meet with ? not this loose FIAT again , no ?" "Erh , no , I .. I think she's now down in South town , most of the time .." "So , when do you come back , you know perfectly well , I have an appointment with my hair-stylist 5:00h ! you hear ?" "No problem - btw , why do human women always fuss around with their hair ? it's ridiculous , why , cars don't care so much if they have a vinyl hardtop , paint job or other - tires are more ...!" " Jeezzus ! that reminds me , I *got* to go downtown to pick up those gorgeous shoes I saw in that boutique yesterday evening - sorry you'll have to take me .." " Byeeee - 'm leaving !" " Now wait a minute , stop ! - how am I supposed to get to the shop?" " Guess you'll have to take the subway , I really can't , you know ."
TooSmart Car?
I think that automated full scale railroading will be most applicable on closed off ore lines like the QNSL. The trains are all about the same size and weight, the lines' length are manageable, and most of it is in the wilderness.
NW
Juniatha Naw-naw-naw . Pop Mech in the 1950s by what I have seen in some old issues sold on flea market seems to have been a mixture of 'What's New in Technology' and far out Sci Fi - maybe ventilated or investigated by technicians well paid to put up some educated expertise on future development to be expected or rather not to be expected .
Naw-naw-naw . Pop Mech in the 1950s by what I have seen in some old issues sold on flea market seems to have been a mixture of 'What's New in Technology' and far out Sci Fi - maybe ventilated or investigated by technicians well paid to put up some educated expertise on future development to be expected or rather not to be expected .
Both PopSci and PopMech back issues are viewable on Google Books, and the "Skiffy" (sci-fi) views of the future were common to both mags from the 1920's up to the 1950's. From the late 50's, both mags were displaying future items that looked a bit more "realistic" than fantastic.
The latest issue of PopSci has a blurb from a 1967 issue with the "Urbmobile", a car that drove itself on electrified roadways - it showed a couple sitting in the car with the man wearing a hat and lighting the woman's cigarette. There didn't appear to be any reason why the "Urbmobile" format couldn't include a light truck design, though would take some scaling to make it compatible with heavy trucks.
- Erik
Still, I think a robot to clean the house would be great.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tLt5rBfNucc
Cleaning and entertainment for pets and people alike. How can you go wrong?
I could use one of those on our trains - just fire it up and hope it gets from one end of the car to another around the seats...
Larry Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date Come ride the rails with me! There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...
Well , the trouble about cars 'driving themselves' as the thread started with ( myself I would doubt they would very much 'drive' themselves - although , well , yes , now that I come to think about it : some *do* have a certain tendency for definitely putting a *drive* to everything ) - uhm , the trouble could be like that :
My car to me : " Oh , June , I'll just go to the gas station , ok ?" Me : " What ? again? you've been there only yesterday !?" Car : " Uhm , well , yes .. but it's more for the social side of it .. you see .." " Why , whom are you going to meet with ? not this loose FIAT again , no ?" "Erh , no , I .. I think she's now down in South town , most of the time .." "So , when do you come back , you know perfectly well , I have an appointment with my hair-stylist 5:00h ! you hear ?" "No problem - btw , why do human women always fuss around with their hair ? it's ridiculous , why , cars don't care so much if they have a vinyl hardtop , paint job or other - tires are more ...!" " Jeezzus ! that reminds me , I *got* to go downtown to pick up those gorgeous shoes I saw in that boutique yesterday evening - sorry you'll have to take me .." " Byeeee - 'm leaving !" " Now wait a minute , stop ! - how am I supposed to get to the shop?" " Guess you'll have to take the subway , I really can't , you know ."
O-M-G - now you just tell me : why on earth did I buy this car !?
= J =
Who would want that ? Now , earnestly : who would be prepared to post he wanted it ?
IBtw , guess the Romans back in the Ancient Empire thought of ( His Incredible Majesty ) Caligula ( no Cally-giggle-gula here ) much the same as we think of -- oh-oh , uhm , gee ...
got to leave .
Regards
Popular Mechanics has been promising driverless cars for years....They also have promised us monorails and robots that clean your house along with moving sidewalks....The problem has been conservitive republicans who believe that we should turn the clock back to 1942 to old fashioned yankee frugality and if we have too much free time on on hands due to high tech we will end up like the Roman Empire of Caligigula with wild oragies in the streets....Who wants that?
Cool...that's a good start! Still have to pull the weeds, rake the grass, and trim the hedges though. Maybe a better approach would be to replace me with a robot at work so that I can spend my days doing yard work. A driverless Ulrich, my wife would be happy. .
UlrichI wish they'd come up with a robot to do my yard work.
Don't know about weeding the daisies, but the lawn mowing part is covered (by several manufacturers):
To pull the discussion back to the original question, all of the discussion of regulation of driverless cars going on right now in the US seems to be leaning toward the requirement that a vehicle running on "autopilot" will be mandated by law to have a qualified,licensed (and sober & awake) person in the driver seat who can take over if the computer fails.
IIRC, the law in Nevada (the only state allowing autonomous vehicle operation on public roads presently ) means that if a Google driverless car passes a police officer with the driver nodded back in his seat asleep the cop is required to pull that vehicle over and cite the driver. If the officer suspects DUI he can require the driver to prove otherwise (field sobriety test,breathalyzer) and if the driver is found to be intoxicated he or she will be charged with an OUI exactly as if they had been driving a conventional vehicle...
So it is almost a certainty that heavy trucks on public roads will be required to have a live, functioning human operator behind the wheel, even if the computer is driving.
A possible exception might be dedicated seperated highway lanes for automated vehicles but that requires a significant amount of additional infrastructure cost and I still doubt that there would not be a human in the loop mandated for hazardous materials and other sensitive shipments.
"I Often Dream of Trains"-From the Album of the Same Name by Robyn Hitchcock
I wish they'd come up with a robot to do my yard work.
schlimm As an example of automated transit applications, consider the many airport shuttles all over the world. They have superb safety records, are unmanned and very reliable, but in a very limited closed circuit. As technology improves, it seems inevitable that automated rail transit will come next, followed by automation of certain terminal to terminal freight trains, such as coal mine to utility and some solid consist container trains. But the day that happens may be quite far in the future. The key factor swill be determined by accountants.
As an example of automated transit applications, consider the many airport shuttles all over the world. They have superb safety records, are unmanned and very reliable, but in a very limited closed circuit. As technology improves, it seems inevitable that automated rail transit will come next, followed by automation of certain terminal to terminal freight trains, such as coal mine to utility and some solid consist container trains. But the day that happens may be quite far in the future. The key factor swill be determined by accountants.
...and lawyers.
-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/)
Automated trucks and cars are much farther in the future than trains because the latter is in a more restricted access, nearly closed system. Our resident accountancy-oriented regulars such as Sam1 could speak better to this, but it seems the railroads will decide to move to a partially automated system on PTC lines if the additional investment needed was less over a given period of time (20 years) than the savings in labor costs and savings from not having to stop for crew changes. There may well be other savings and the incremental cost of full automation may be astronomical, but all those dollars and cents factors will be the determining ones. In the case of Amtrak, the largest component of operating expenses is labor. As a percentage, it is less for freight rails, but the numbers are huge. If the numbers are crunched and a realistic number for automation is calculated, it is likely the long-term ROI would be such to justify doing so. If not, or if the pay back period were too lengthy, then it will not be undertaken. Resistance to even considering automation sounds like the resistance to dieselization or elimination of cabooses or elimination of firemen on diesel locomotives.
C&NW, CA&E, MILW, CGW and IC fan
There have been several flying cars built. They are just not feasible in the transportation infrastructure. There are many small personal aircraft.
https://www.google.com/search?q=flying+cars&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=Y148UtHeGer_4APm6IHwDQ&sqi=2&ved=0CDQQsAQ&biw=1301&bih=540&dpr=1
25 years ago a cell phone was a large device with a telephone handset attached by a coiled chord and only worked in large cities.
NASA has not stagnated, they have changed their focus. They are maintaining an orbiting space station, and sending ever more sophisticated probes to explore the entire solar system. Bases on other bodies are not yet logistically feasible. Low Earth orbit missions are being privatized.
Compare a 2014 automobile to a 1980 automobile or a 1960 automobile. Check out the Tesla..
The future is probably closer than you think.
Dave
Lackawanna Route of the Phoebe Snow
Phoebe Vet History has repeatedly demonstrated that the future is seldom as far away as the doubters think. In one person's lifetime we went from Kitty Hawk to the moon. Orville Wright lived to see the dawn of jet powered aircraft.
History has repeatedly demonstrated that the future is seldom as far away as the doubters think.
In one person's lifetime we went from Kitty Hawk to the moon. Orville Wright lived to see the dawn of jet powered aircraft.
On the other hand... it took Mankind hundreds of thousands of years to go from grunting in the woods to inventing the wheel..
Back in the 50s the experts said we'd all have flying cars by 1980. I'm still waiting for mine.
Progress doesn't happen at a uniform rate. We'll have a lot of progress and change, and then we'll see stagnation for decades or even centuries. Look at space exploration. We really haven't advanced that much in 40 years. We should have colonies on the moon by now and we should have put people on Mars by now. But progress has slowed and it might be a while yet before we even send someone to the moon again.
Two person crews will be the norm for quite some time. Automating trains is very much along the lines of solving a problem that doesn't exist.
BroadwayLion it would still be fully powered up and have plenty of air to maintain the brakes.
Right, because locomotives never experience problems and shut down.
It's been fun. But it isn't much fun anymore. Signing off for now.
The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer, any other railroad, company, or person.t fun any
Leo_Ames BroadwayLion Ulrich One person crews took a hit with the Lac Megantic accident. Many are wondering if two people on board would have prevented this. Maybe not, but it has opened up the debate. An automated train with no crew would not have caused an accident like this, because it would not have to be parked overnight... Just keep on running. Use your imagination a bit. What makes you think that just because a train is automated that it would never runaway, never spend time parked out on the line or in a siding, etc? Like people keep telling you with your proof of concept model railroad in your bedroom, introduce some variables into the system and watch your model railroad fail to react to those conditions. That's the value of the human element and why automated systems largely have only existed in closed systems so far like a subway, a coal mine to power plant line without grade crossings and with identically sized trains, etc. Where there are lots of variables, the human operator remains very valuable and will be for decades to come.
BroadwayLion Ulrich One person crews took a hit with the Lac Megantic accident. Many are wondering if two people on board would have prevented this. Maybe not, but it has opened up the debate. An automated train with no crew would not have caused an accident like this, because it would not have to be parked overnight... Just keep on running.
Ulrich One person crews took a hit with the Lac Megantic accident. Many are wondering if two people on board would have prevented this. Maybe not, but it has opened up the debate.
One person crews took a hit with the Lac Megantic accident. Many are wondering if two people on board would have prevented this. Maybe not, but it has opened up the debate.
Like people keep telling you with your proof of concept model railroad in your bedroom, introduce some variables into the system and watch your model railroad fail to react to those conditions.
That's the value of the human element and why automated systems largely have only existed in closed systems so far like a subway, a coal mine to power plant line without grade crossings and with identically sized trains, etc. Where there are lots of variables, the human operator remains very valuable and will be for decades to come.
Yes, of course the (L) train has a crewman, yes he must operate the train from time to time, especially in the yards.
Of course this one *was* being operated by a motorman, who had a seizure.
ROAR
The Route of the Broadway Lion The Largest Subway Layout in North Dakota.
Here there be cats. LIONS with CAMERAS
The problem with "driverless" is the weather. Under fair weather conditions, a driverless vehicle should be able to equal a driver for trip time. But, what happens in foul weather? Does the driverless vehicle have to assume "worst case"? Would the vehicle have to have some system to test available adhesion on a continuous basis? Could it "see" black ice ahead? Ice under an underpass? Water laying in the grooves in the road? Would it know about leaves on the road? Recently wet and very slippery intersections after a long dry spell?
The first step for "driverless" would be as non-failsafe safety backstop, applying the brakes for you, if you fail to, warning about speed, following distances, etc. We are starting to see some of this stuff in production vehicles. But, the last problem to be solved would be the variable right of way conditions, mostly due to weather.
Concerning the one NYC Subway line that is automated. My impression was that there remains a "motorman" in the cab and he closes the doors at each station, and is there for any emergency, including taking the appropriate action if notified by a passenger on the emergeny intercom. I also believe that the operators on the "L" are required to know how to bypass the automation and run the train manually.
dknelson I hate to be superficial about a serious topic, but somehow the entire notion of driverless trucks brings memories of Dennis Weaver in the movie "Dual." I think that was the finest made for TV movie ever and fascinating portions are to be found on YouTube. There is almost a truck cult about the vehicle used in that film. Dave Nelson
Dave Nelson
See the "Goofs" webpage there for several interesting railroad-related items from the grade crossing scene.
- Paul North.
BroadwayLion carnej1 It's the same reason that unmanned freight trains are not likely in the near-to-mid future, the grade crossing liability issue is unresolved.. Grade crossings are 100% moot. No number of crewmen in the cab will stop a train fro some dope in the grade crossing. If there will be a "crewman" on such trains it will simply be as a sop to the public. My trains (in HO scale) are fully automated, making all station stops without any inputs from the tower. As tower operator, I give them the green signal at 242nd Street and they are 100% on their own until they get back 21 minutes later. They will stop at Dyckman Street, and I'll will have to give them a line up into 242nd Street. All automatic, and NO COMPUTERS: 100% analog operation. LOOK, IF I CAN DO IT< THEN IT CAN BE DONE IN ANY SCALE. ROAR
carnej1 It's the same reason that unmanned freight trains are not likely in the near-to-mid future, the grade crossing liability issue is unresolved..
Grade crossings are 100% moot. No number of crewmen in the cab will stop a train fro some dope in the grade crossing. If there will be a "crewman" on such trains it will simply be as a sop to the public.
My trains (in HO scale) are fully automated, making all station stops without any inputs from the tower. As tower operator, I give them the green signal at 242nd Street and they are 100% on their own until they get back 21 minutes later. They will stop at Dyckman Street, and I'll will have to give them a line up into 242nd Street.
All automatic, and NO COMPUTERS: 100% analog operation.
LOOK, IF I CAN DO IT< THEN IT CAN BE DONE IN ANY SCALE.
The Railroad industries insurance carriers would not agree with you that grade crossings are moot.
If you re-read my post I clearly stated that fully automated railroad operations are not only technically possible but have existed in some places for decades (mainly isolated heavy haul (ore,coal) operations and on some transit systems). The liability issue is real and can't be dismissed by a hand wave.
I do have a feeling the coming of Positive Train Control systems may lead to one man operations sooner rather than later on many lines. Some of the professional railroaders on these forums have explained why that may not be such a great thing...
Driverless trucks rolling down the highway are probably 50 years off, at least, and even then the economics may not make them viable. Sure, you would save the expense of having drivers, but there's also a cost to having much more sophisticated technology. At present some carriers are even balking at switching to automated transmissions as they are $2500.00 to $4000.00 per copy more expensive than your basic manual transmission. And have you ever heard of a manual transmission breaking down? The simple manual gearbox is probably one of the most reliable components in a truck. Same can't be said for the computerized automated gearbox.
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