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Toughest Challenge for Railroads in Coming Years ?

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Posted by henry6 on Friday, December 18, 2009 8:35 AM

Paul posed an intresting question and subject for discussion.  It is a shame it tumbled into the abyss of politics and parochialisms.  There is a lot to the discussion that does not deal with political postures and labor gripes.  The issues of traffic, products, markets, envriomnment, technology, domestic and global economies and other similar influences will all be making major impacts on what happens to railroading as we know it.  Politics is a small part of all of the above; labor will follow as needed.  So move on from these two elements and explore the world of railroads and railroading.

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Friday, December 18, 2009 8:18 AM

    At the risk of sounding like a broken record, at the risk of sounding like a broken record:  There are literally, thousands of political websites that feature lively political discussion.  There are very few forums to discuss railroads.  Can we keep this as one of them?

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Posted by schlimm on Friday, December 18, 2009 5:34 AM

selector
Yeah, this is going in the wrong direction. 

 

Agreed. 

But along the line of medium to long range planning (I trust that is not stepping over the line), how well will two of the major revenue sources hold up in the coming years - coal and transcontinental shipment of containers?  Coal sounds like it could become less significant, but that's pretty iffy.  What about the widening of the canal and the impact on container ships?

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Posted by selector on Friday, December 18, 2009 1:17 AM

Yeah, this is going in the wrong direction.  I still have hope, though....until a few hours from now, I'll let it go hoping that we can get back to the topic.  Let's can the notions of greed and incompetence, and lets forget the incongruities between governments in Europe and those on this side of the Atlantic.  If that's all you can bring to the discussion, one about challenges for railroads, then we're done here.

We have threads dealing with moving people, electrification, spending on other types of upgrades to infrastruture, fuel costs and efficiencies...what else of that nature may present problems?

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Posted by Railway Man on Friday, December 18, 2009 1:10 AM

Does anyone know of a forum that's about railways?

I see increasingly little point in continuing to share information about railways with a forum that seems to be far more fascinated in politics.

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Posted by greyhounds on Thursday, December 17, 2009 11:20 PM

schlimm

edblysard
I am free to assume

 

Assume away; my response was not directed at you.  I, at least do not hide behind a shroud of anonymity.  The assumption that anyone who suggests that mistakes are made in business must be a socialist and is against the profit motive, etc. would be laughable if it weren't so pathetically ill-conceived.  Are you actually stating the absurdity that no shot-sighted decisions were made in railroading, driven by the desire to make a quick buck (greed)?  Examples please!!

I think the telling point here is "schlimm's" pointing the finger only at business/railroads, along with his application of a "Standard of Perfection". 

He ignores government financial midseads, which are quite common in his Chicago, Illinois area of residence.  Government "mistakes" and "short sightedness" also extend to our Federal Government.  Here's one involving a "Government Sponsored 'Enterprise'" that helped get us into this current economic mess..

  http://www.slate.com/id/2107902/

Schlimm is using a blatant double standard.

He then asks if there are no (his emphasis) shot(sic)-sighted decisions made in railroading. Well of course there are.  That makes the system imperfect, but it does not make it "bad."  It is important to remember that perfection is not an option.  But if your desire is to discredit something you can simply point to the imperfections and try to smear everyone else with those failings.  That's what he's doing.  He ignores the fact that government consistently makes a lot of very bad mistakes.  More of the "double standard" thing.

(Maybe schlimm really meant "shot-sighted".  A former UP honcho was known for his alcohol problem.  The guy could have made a few bad decisions while under the influence.) 

What schlimm's doing is comparing reality in railroading with an "ideal" of government.  That's a false comparison.  Apples and oranges as it were.  It's a trick used by acitivists to advance an agenda in face of facts that don't go their way..

When the comparison is reality to reality the free market option consistenly produces superior economic results.  Schlimm doesn't seem to like those facts.  So he comes up with a false comparison, a "double standard", to discredit market oriented railroading and hopes most folks won't notice.

 

"By many measures, the U.S. freight rail system is the safest, most efficient and cost effective in the world." - Federal Railroad Administration, October, 2009. I'm just your average, everyday, uncivilized howling "anti-government" critic of mass government expenditures for "High Speed Rail" in the US. And I'm gosh darn proud of that.
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Posted by Last Chance on Thursday, December 17, 2009 10:21 PM

 I took college courses in Theory method with words and books. I didnt learn a darned thing.

 

Now, hands on... bring it.

[Edited for content by selector.]

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Posted by edblysard on Thursday, December 17, 2009 10:07 PM

Barry,

I couldn't agree more...my school district no longer offers what we called trade classes...no wood shop, no metal shop, no automotive repair, or drafting, you know, the manual trade courses.

Instead they teach to the test, the one that brings in the federal dollars.

Which is sad, because those kids who have no desire to be a MBA, doctor or lawyer have no recourse, they get bored, drop out and become a social burden.

And just as sad is the stereotypical representation of the kid who liked the shop classes, the "dummy" or "slow learner" when in fact, a lot of the guys I took shop with were quite bright and intelligent.

Our public school system here in Houston seems to have no desire to even attempt to teach any type of "trade" classes as part of the general curriculum, ....in fact, my daughter, who wants to be an engineer, attends a advanced class academy at her high school, referred to as a magnet program, it is the only type of program in our public schools that teach anything close to a trade.

It involves design, engineering, drafting and actual hands on construction of the course material, and is supported by several of the colleges in Texas, such as Texas A&M and Texas Tech.

My daughter has, in 11 grade, already earned 3 college credits in her engineer classes.

Simply put, they are recruiting at the high school level and starting the process there because as a matter of policy, the public school system does not graduate enough students interested in these type of trades.

Paul,

Your right, I too can think of no president or CEO of any of the railroads who lives extraordinary or extravagant lifestyles...although they do receive salaries and retirement packages which would seem large to the average American middle class, in comparison to chief executives of say, any major oil company or energy company, they the low man on the totem pole.

If by greed, one concludes that railroads wish to earn as much money and make as much profit as possible with in the frame work of our legal system, then I would tend to say that all businesses are to some extent greedy...but that is not necessarily a bad thing, as what is construed as greed translates to money to the shareholders, who in turn spend that money on consumer goods.

If by short sightedness one means that railroad management failed to see or stop the Railroad Retirement Board, a Federally managed system, from altering or changing the retirement requirements, then yes, they were indeed short sighted.

But then, I have never seen the crystal ball some seem to think they, railroad management, must have, so I can't really comment if it works or is broken!

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Posted by edblysard on Thursday, December 17, 2009 9:30 PM

schlimm

edblysard
I am free to assume

 

Assume away; my response was not directed at you.  I, at least do not hide behind a shroud of anonymity.  The assumption that anyone who suggests that mistakes are made in business must be a socialist and is against the profit motive, etc. would be laughable if it weren't so pathetically ill-conceived.  Are you actually stating the absurdity that no shot-sighted decisions were made in railroading, driven by the desire to make a quick buck (greed)?  Examples please!!

Assume away; my response was not directed at you. I, at least do not hide behind a shroud of anonymity.

Neither do I.

The assumption that anyone who suggests that mistakes are made in business must be a socialist and is against the profit motive, etc. would be laughable if it weren't so pathetically ill-conceived.

Was not assuming that anyone who suggests that mistakes are made in business must be anything…I was specifically stating that your responses indicate your preference for a socialist style of government.

Are you actually stating the absurdity that no shot-sighted decisions were made in railroading, driven by the desire to make a quick buck (greed)? Examples please!!

Truly greed exist, Enron comes to mind as a example, but you stated that greed and short-sightedness were present in railroads and could be responsible for the present crisis discussed here, and I was asking you to provide examples to back up your statement.

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Posted by Paul_D_North_Jr on Thursday, December 17, 2009 8:32 PM

Note that oltmannd / Don's original question was limited to railroads - not business generally, and then to Class I's, and then within the last 30 years, which would be from 1979 to date.

Also, what is 'greed' ?  Seeking to merely survive, obtain an advantageous route, a more profitable combination of railroads, maximize returns to stockholders or salvage proceeds to creditors, or even to cut costs to the bone, is not necessarily 'greed' to me.  None of the railroads has ever accumulated a surplus cash position anywhere near that of MicroSoft - something like $130 Billion around 10 years ago, if I recall correctly.  I'm not aware of any Class I railroad executives with yachts or palatial mansions - R. J. Corman's doesn't count - or pay or bonuses anywhere near that of the current Wall Street bankers, nor of corporate profit margins in excess of around 15% on the whole enterprise; it's hard to see how else 'greed' would manifest itself. 

I have no hesitancy to bash a carrier if I saw what I thought was a 'greedy' decision by its management.  But even with the recent mergers - most of which had implementation difficulties that cost way more money than was anticpated, and so were effectively 'anti-greed' - I too can't think of any outrageous behavior within the parameters that Don specified.  As John Kneiling used to write that he told shippers who complained about railroads, their services, and rates - "The railroad is not stealing your money - it is wasting it".

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Posted by blownout cylinder on Thursday, December 17, 2009 8:28 PM

edblysard

In virtually all of your postings, you put forth the concept and what appears to be a personal belief that all American business has some sort of social or moral obligation to do what you see as proper or right thing in preference to making a profit, which you seem to see as some sort of sin.

You make the statement/accusation of greed and shortsightedness, but in a later post, claim to have no experience in railroad financing, which raises the question of how, considering your self professed lack of expertise, you can even make such accusations

I'm still going to continue posting demographical arguements and the cost cutting of programmes in schools that would allow those mechanically inclined into entering the workforce----such as that is.

As for this--I think that the government was just as culpable in these scenarios--NYC/PRR being jammed into a type of shot gun marriage that devolved into that PCC disaster----all OK'd and promoted by those in government. Two drastically differing management styles cobbled into a hydra headed monster that went bankrupt even quicker than the previous issues were.

Newer problems? How about the wonderful oversight the markets got since 2000 or so? And the turf wars that developed/are being developed over who knew what when? How about what happened to that oversight during the real estate so called boom? There are many questions about those situations---and I'm not going to step into the issues around bailouts and uses of said to pay bonuses and the toothless responses therefrom---

As much as some seem to think, the private sector is not the SOLE source of trouble.

Hence my scepticism of governmental knowingnessGrumpy

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Posted by schlimm on Thursday, December 17, 2009 8:08 PM

edblysard
I am free to assume

 

Assume away; my response was not directed at you.  I, at least do not hide behind a shroud of anonymity.  The assumption that anyone who suggests that mistakes are made in business must be a socialist and is against the profit motive, etc. would be laughable if it weren't so pathetically ill-conceived.  Are you actually stating the absurdity that no shot-sighted decisions were made in railroading, driven by the desire to make a quick buck (greed)?  Examples please!!

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Posted by edblysard on Thursday, December 17, 2009 7:54 PM

schlimm

oltmannd
Can you give an example on a class 1 where they were greedy or shortsighted in the past 30 years? I can't think of a one.

 

I was referring to business decisions in general, as I am not an expert on the finances of RR's. However, I doubt that the decisions made in the railway industry have been totally exempt from those errors.  If you can't think of decisions in business or RR's where making the quick buck took precedence over sound longer range planning, you must be joking.

Ok,

Then cite a example where a railroad manager profited personally by making a greedy decision that was detrimental to the railroad and or the public at large.

Cite the persons name, the railroad he works/worked for, and give the example in detail.

If you are referring to some sort of corporate greed as a matter of a railroads policy, then cite that also with examples and details.

If you can not, or will not give examples, then I am free to assume this is simply another attempt by you to troll and start another debate to allow you to forward your agenda of "European is better and socialism is the way to go1" program which taints almost every one of your postings.

As for the short sightedness, the 60/30 retirement package was not the idea of the carriers, but an example of the government attempting social management, in an attempt to move out older employees to make room for younger entry level employees.

Add that to the guarantee of the union/labor vote for those who promoted this package.

More jobs for young people, early out for older people, looked great on paper and sounded great in speeches...pretty much failed in real life.

In virtually all of your postings, you put forth the concept and what appears to be a personal belief that all American business has some sort of social or moral obligation to do what you see as proper or right thing in preference to making a profit, which you seem to see as some sort of sin.

You make the statement/accusation of greed and shortsightedness, but in a later post, claim to have no experience in railroad financing, which raises the question of how, considering your self professed lack of expertise, you can even make such accusations.

So, it seems that if you have no expertise of railroad financing, you are making accusations and statements based on very limited knowledge of the matter at hand.

And no, I am not joking, I would like to see your specific examples of both the greed and the shortsightedness you accuse...please be detailed in your examples.

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Posted by Anonymous on Thursday, December 17, 2009 7:43 PM

Paul_D_North_Jr
Question:  What might happen - either now, soon, or in the near future, say within the next 3 to 5 years - that would challenge the profitability, propserity, and maybe even survival of the railroad business and railroad operations as we now know them ?

 

I think the main problem for railroads is not going to be with the railroads per se, but rather with the effect on railroads due to the onset of a prolonged contraction of prosperity, growth, and consumption in the U.S. economy.  Right now, it appears as though we are going through a recession merely as the normal pattern of the business cycles.  However, I suspect that the passage of time will prove that this so-called recession is actually a permanent transformation of the economy rather than a typical business cycle recession.    

 

It is the shrinkage of business that always seems to be the hardest problem for railroads to fight.  Many have disappeared while attempting to fight that fight.  I think we are heading into the age of lean and mean. 

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Posted by henry6 on Thursday, December 17, 2009 7:04 PM

Crane and company were old PC hands and that was their world.  In our discussion here, their forming CR in the image of PC reflects greed on their part.  Specifics included the ripping up of track on the NJ Cut Off (EL) so as to not give anybody else a chance at a route out of the NY Metropolitan Area; lifiting track out of the NYC Corning to Newberryport before the ink was dry on the ICC permission (actually that night); elimination of the EL line west of Hornell to Meadville and the downgrading of the Southern Tier LIne from Buffalo to New Jersey while it offered opportunities to by pass the Niagra Frontier bottleneck and was a better high and wide route than either PRR or NYC track (it was well known they did not want the track, didn't want to operate the track, but knew enough that anyone else getting the track could kill them!).  They cherry picked everything for what they wanted to make the PC a monopoly railroad in and out of New York and New England.  They went so far as to keep snips and pieces of other than PC lines in places, without ecnoomic or operating need, just to not allow anybody to put up a system to compete against PC as Conrail.  That could be construed as greed.  Any PRR that got discarded was secondary and branch lines; the EL, the E, and DLW, and LV tracks abandoned or decimated were main lines.  It was a masterful discecting then knitting together of trackage to preserve the Red and Green operations, enhance by getting rid of the Corridor and using the RDG and LV from  Harrisburg through Allentown to NJ as well as the RDG from Philadelphia to Bound Brook, NJ and casting the rest to the fates.  D&H's Bruce Sterzing did his best by taking trackage rights west from Bingahmton to Buffalo to give New England a westbound outlet via the B&M at Mechanicsville and Rotterdam Jct.  But from NY Harbor it was the PC stranglehold or the highway.  The NYSW did not exist beyond Butler NJ at that time and its present form did not take shape until well into the CR creation.  It was shrewed, it was masterful, it was destructive, it was creative, it was greed, it was how CR came about!

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Posted by schlimm on Thursday, December 17, 2009 6:49 PM

oltmannd
Can you give an example on a class 1 where they were greedy or shortsighted in the past 30 years? I can't think of a one.

 

I was referring to business decisions in general, as I am not an expert on the finances of RR's. However, I doubt that the decisions made in the railway industry have been totally exempt from those errors.  If you can't think of decisions in business or RR's where making the quick buck took precedence over sound longer range planning, you must be joking.

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Posted by oltmannd on Thursday, December 17, 2009 6:40 PM
henry6
Conrail.  Did a great job of dismantling a handful of railroads to create one.  Some can say that was certainly a good job.  But others can argue that greed was shortsighted on some of the lines that were degraded, discarded, and dismantled.  Some feel the Penn Central people deep sixed the Erie and Erie Lackawanna routes, for example in favor of the Red and the Green.  In otherwords, there has been a lot of give and take that can be construde or misconstrude as greedy and shortsighted.  Depends on what side of a line you are standing.
If it was greed, who got rich? Shortsighted w.r.t. which lines were chosen to be kept means that a different choice would have done better or a discarded line would now be valuable. So those who say this, which were the bad choices? I would like to know why Stanley Crane (who did the choosing, and was nobody's fool, would favor PC lines over the Erie? In my opinion, the NYC had the best routes (combination of grade, speed, on line traffic) and that's why Conrail wound up being about 60% ex-NYC. I'll bet you more PRR got discarded by CR than EL.

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Posted by samfp1943 on Thursday, December 17, 2009 5:29 PM

Murphy Siding

blownout cylinder

henry6

gabe

What is the challenge working for a lumber yard?  Do you get board?

Gabe

I planely saw you milling around here and barking up the wrong tree, so cut it out!

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Posted by Anonymous on Thursday, December 17, 2009 5:12 PM

Ulrich

what side of the line indeed..One man's greedy is another's profitable..

That is why I asked what greed is as it is applied to business.  Greed has become a fashionable term these days, and it is most often directed at corporations.  So I ask for a definition of greed as it applies to business.  So far, no definition.      

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Thursday, December 17, 2009 4:48 PM

     I have to think that railroads are no different than most other businesses right now.  The toughest challenges in the near future are change, and the unknown.

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Thursday, December 17, 2009 4:45 PM

blownout cylinder

henry6

gabe

What is the challenge working for a lumber yard?  Do you get board?

Gabe

I planely saw you milling around here and barking up the wrong tree, so cut it out!

My mother would nail dad over his puns----these ones sound kinda rough grade--Whistling



     Gabe- the hardest part about working in a lumberyard, is that we have so many studs here.  Somehow, we manage to lumber along.

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Posted by Ulrich on Thursday, December 17, 2009 4:04 PM

what side of the line indeed..One man's greedy is another's profitable.. and anything under 10 years is shortsighted for some..  

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Posted by henry6 on Thursday, December 17, 2009 3:09 PM

oltmannd

 Can you give an example on a class 1 where they were greedy or shortsighted in the past 30 years? I can't think of a one.

 

Conrail.  Did a great job of dismantling a handful of railroads to create one.  Some can say that was certainly a good job.  But others can argue that greed was shortsighted on some of the lines that were degraded, discarded, and dismantled.  Some feel the Penn Central people deep sixed the Erie and Erie Lackawanna routes, for example in favor of the Red and the Green.  In otherwords, there has been a lot of give and take that can be construde or misconstrude as greedy and shortsighted.  Depends on what side of a line you are standing.

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Posted by blownout cylinder on Thursday, December 17, 2009 3:04 PM

schlimm

 Perhaps the operative concepts that lead to all the aforementioned problems are GREED and SHORT-SIGHTEDNESS.

And there are some that think that governance---in the form of the public service--will control that----mmmm

I'm still going to suggest other things---such as our demographics

And the way that our education systems have short changed those students who were more mechanically inclined---with closure of school workshops and the like. Community colleges going more into theory---simply to avoid the cost of the machinery these students were learning from.

etc etc etc---

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Posted by oltmannd on Thursday, December 17, 2009 2:13 PM
schlimm

 Perhaps the operative concepts that lead to all the aforementioned problems are GREED and SHORT-SIGHTEDNESS.

Can you give an example on a class 1 where they were greedy or shortsighted in the past 30 years? I can't think of a one.

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Posted by oltmannd on Thursday, December 17, 2009 2:03 PM
MP173

Oltmann and RWM:

Bring me up to speed.

Why are the "50 somethings" leaving?  Is there a pension provision incentivizing their departures?

There was a big hiring "blob" in the post WWII years, then another in the late 60s thru the 70s to replace the first blob. Now, that blob is reaching the 60 years old/30 years service needed for full RR retirement, so out the door we go!

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Posted by Ulrich on Thursday, December 17, 2009 1:02 PM

not greed or shortsightedness...just the ebb and flow of supply and demand. Very rarely are both in perfect balance.

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Posted by Paul_D_North_Jr on Thursday, December 17, 2009 12:58 PM

bobwilcox
  [snip] . . . We are in the middle of a once every 80 year rummage sale in our economy.  The railroads with a future will be able to discern which of their customers will grow and which will die. Just think about the PRR and Espee in 1929 and 2009 in contrast to the then second tier N&W, SOU and Hill Lines. Ouch! 

MP173
   [snip]  . . . The earlier discussion regarding comparing the PRR and SP 70 years ago to the second tier railroads is brilliant.  Our consumption patterns have changed dramatically the past five years.  Frugality is now a preferred and required lifestyle, at least for now.  "Detroit" and it's based automotive industry has changed dramatically.  Infrastructure which was near capacity such as the ex Wabash line seems to have lost considerable traffic and now has excess capacity.  Temporary or permanently?  Where do the railroads invest their capital going forward?  New government requirements will demand significantly more of that capital it appears.

 This is only a hunch, as I am an outsider, but when contracts terminate and are being renegotiated, downward pricing pressure could begin to creep in (certain markets such as coal or intermodal). 

ed 

[emphasis added - PDN] 

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Posted by Paul_D_North_Jr on Thursday, December 17, 2009 12:51 PM

MP173
  Oltmann and RWM:

Bring me up to speed.

Why are the "50 somethings" leaving?  Is there a pension provision incentivizing their departures?

I am not sure if retirement is a prudent financial decision at this point in economic history, unless there are nice golden guarantees out there. 

ed

Good questions - ones that I was wondering, too.  Although not directed to me, here are some answers, pending a fuller response from those gentlemen

"Employees with 30 or more years of creditable service are eligible for full age and service annuities the first full month they are age 60, if their annuities begin January 1, 2002, or later." [emphasis added - PDN]  

 Hence the designation or reference to it of, "30 / 60" or "60 / 30"From -
"Railroad Retirement Age Reductions

April 2007" under 6. What age reductions are applied to employees who retired with 30 years of service prior to 2002?

at - http://www.rrb.gov/opa/qa/pub_0704.asp 

- Paul North.

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Posted by Anonymous on Thursday, December 17, 2009 12:38 PM

schlimm

 Perhaps the operative concepts that lead to all the aforementioned problems are GREED and SHORT-SIGHTEDNESS.

 How do you define "greed" as it applies to business?

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