kchronister wrote: IRONROOSTER wrote:The future of the hobby may will be in bringing in new modelers in their 50's and 60's who have the time, space, and money. Their children are launched, careers are winding down or they're already retired. That's the group from which to recruit new members.In my case, even though I have been in the hobby for 35 years, I had a long period of relative dormancy while the kids were growing up. Once I hit my 50's, my hobby activity picked up along with available funds and space.EnjoyPaul Paul, I not only agree, but don't even think that's the "future" so much as the past, present AND future. Heck, go out and get a copy of Model Railroader from the decade of your choice - preferably a couple different decades. Read it, and examine the age of the owner/builder of the feature layouts. Read the letters and look for clues as to the age of the correspondents, things like "after my kids moved out" or "when I worked in ____"... I think this hobby has long been the domain of empty-nesters, retirees or at least folks far enough along in life to have some good disposable income. I guarantee that you won't find any issue of Model Railroader from any decade suggesting that the hobby is driven by the youth. There's the occasional dedicated teenager or 20-something around, sure, and we applaud them highly. Rick of Rix products built an impressive layout by the time he was 30-ish, but that's the exception.
IRONROOSTER wrote:The future of the hobby may will be in bringing in new modelers in their 50's and 60's who have the time, space, and money. Their children are launched, careers are winding down or they're already retired. That's the group from which to recruit new members.In my case, even though I have been in the hobby for 35 years, I had a long period of relative dormancy while the kids were growing up. Once I hit my 50's, my hobby activity picked up along with available funds and space.EnjoyPaul
Paul, I not only agree, but don't even think that's the "future" so much as the past, present AND future.
Heck, go out and get a copy of Model Railroader from the decade of your choice - preferably a couple different decades. Read it, and examine the age of the owner/builder of the feature layouts. Read the letters and look for clues as to the age of the correspondents, things like "after my kids moved out" or "when I worked in ____"... I think this hobby has long been the domain of empty-nesters, retirees or at least folks far enough along in life to have some good disposable income. I guarantee that you won't find any issue of Model Railroader from any decade suggesting that the hobby is driven by the youth. There's the occasional dedicated teenager or 20-something around, sure, and we applaud them highly. Rick of Rix products built an impressive layout by the time he was 30-ish, but that's the exception.
No, I'm afraid it's not true. It's just that your statement is relevant to the post-1980's MR era, when the hobby had already begun to age dramatically. If you'll look at issues of MR from the 1940's, 50's, 60's, even into the 70's, you'll find that a great many of the authors were men of 30-something or younger. To be sure, there were older modelers too but they didn't dominate as today. A number of well known hobbyists today started contributing to MR in their late teens and early 20's during the 1950's, Earl Smallshaw being a perfect example. As to the hobby's make-up in general not having changed over the years, guess again! Based on their own published figures, the average age of an MR reader was reported as 32/33 from the 1940's until the mid 1970's. Likewise, in 1956 MR claimed that 1 in every 5 of its readers was a teen! Do you really think that those figures haven't changed drastically over the years? In fact, today the median age figure has almost doubled and there is virtually no teen element left at all!
CNJ831
jecorbett wrote: To me the best indicator of the health of the hobby is the number of times a desired item must be back ordered. It is a rare occurence when I do most of my non-railroading online shopping but happens frequently when I try to order model railroading items. I have had this happen with locos as well as structures. It happens when I try to order from an e-tailer, a phone in retailer like Trainworld, and even when I try to order direct from Walthers. Supply it seems can't keep up with demand. If the business wasn't healthy, we would be seeing inventories building up. We are seeing just the opposite. Model railroading is alive and well.
To me the best indicator of the health of the hobby is the number of times a desired item must be back ordered. It is a rare occurence when I do most of my non-railroading online shopping but happens frequently when I try to order model railroading items. I have had this happen with locos as well as structures. It happens when I try to order from an e-tailer, a phone in retailer like Trainworld, and even when I try to order direct from Walthers. Supply it seems can't keep up with demand. If the business wasn't healthy, we would be seeing inventories building up. We are seeing just the opposite. Model railroading is alive and well.
I iwsh that were true, but your analysis assumes manufacturers are trying to meet the demand.
In this case, they aren't. They'll produce whatever size run they want, and that's it. The "supply" is 10,000 or 25,000 units...and no more. If they sell out, great. If not, it doesn't matter.
Now, if, say, Athearn announced an RTR run of a certain roadname's F7's--which are not limited run--and you couldn't get one because of demand, that would validate your theory.
Mark P.
Website: http://www.thecbandqinwyoming.comVideos: https://www.youtube.com/user/mabrunton
Simon Modelling CB&Q and Wabash See my slowly evolving layout on my picturetrail site http://www.picturetrail.com/simontrains and our videos at http://www.youtube.com/user/MrCrispybake?feature=mhum
simon1966 wrote:There is a lot of conflicting evidence. With 2 MRR printed publications going out of business in the past couple of weeks, (Mainline Modeller and Model Railroading) with at least one publisher claiming the shrinking of the hobby due to lack of new blood being the reason.
NeO6874 wrote:Well, in that case it up to you guys who have (grand)kids to get them interested in trains so that, even if they move on to cars/girls/whatever, they may come back in the future - probably with the help that mass-marketing will provide (ie Lionel for Christmas Tree, or something like that). And its the job of those who are in HS/college to (when we have kids) get them involved (again, through mass market Lionels or Thomas or something).While mass-marketing might not the the 'silver-bullet' to get this hobby back to where people remember it, its a start. I mean, I was in a LHS a few weeks ago (maybe a month or so), and as I was looking for the stuff I needed to get a project done, someone came in with his kid - he asked the clerk if they sold motors as the one he had wasn't working anymore... The clerk seemed pretty helpful, but wasn't able to get him the motor (I think he told him to look it up through walthers or athearn or soemthing). The clerk did show the customer their selection of (running) used locos (which weren't that bad price-wise), saying it would probably be easier geting one of those running for the time being, as remotoring old equipment can get to be a headache...I don't know if he actually bought anything, but I'm willing to bet that if he didn't his son was asking him constantly when they were going to get a train...
Well i'm trying to do my part by getting my son involved when he was 12.
we joined a modular club and had lots of fun till he hit 16 then it was cars computers and girls
I even set the speed control down to 30% on my zephyr to let my grandsons run trains at the risk of
hearing them say "Grandpa your Locos are Sick"
They feel sorry for me because i don't have an X box which they would much rather play with !
TerryinTexas
See my Web Site Here
http://conewriversubdivision.yolasite.com/
Brunton wrote:Go read the Mainline Modeler magazine thread and think again!
When was the last time you heard a businessman say, "Well, we did our best but the competition was just better and they beat us"?
Never.
It is always the market's fault, or worse, the consumer's fault for not "supporting" the business that's going under, no matter what industry.
Model railroading's no different in that regard.
The failure of two publications is not an indicator of the overall health of the hobby. In every business there are going to be winners and losers. Those publications apparently were not capturing enough market share to stay in business. I think I subscribed to Model Railroading for about a year but that was a long time ago and sampled just a few issues of Mainline Modeler. I don't have any data but my guess is that MR and RMC are the two industry leaders. I subscribe to MR and buy RMC when I see something interesting and will probably start subscribing to RMC again now that retirement is allowing me to spend more time in the hobby. When one of those two giants goes belly up, then I will start to worry.
Joe Fugate Modeling the 1980s SP Siskiyou Line in southern Oregon
jecorbett wrote: simon1966 wrote:There is a lot of conflicting evidence. With 2 MRR printed publications going out of business in the past couple of weeks, (Mainline Modeller and Model Railroading) with at least one publisher claiming the shrinking of the hobby due to lack of new blood being the reason. {snip}
{snip}
What about Model Railroad News? I haven't seen anyone mention it, but it seems to be holding its own... I took them up on their 3 free issues thing earlier this year, and can't quite decide whether to subscribe or not, but am leaning toward doing so. It's a little product-review heavy for my taste, but they have some good layout visits, how-to articles, columns and such.
We ought to have a seperate forum called "Model Railroading is Dying" since we can't stop yaking about it!
Nothing's dying. I may be the eternal optimist, but I believe the hobby is getting better. When I had my layout at the show I had dozens, and dozens of people come up to me who weren't in the hobby but had been inspired by our layouts to start. If each one of us recruits just one hobbiest to replace us, the hobby will experience zero shrinkage. I have faith that at least one of my two sons will take up the hobby, and that doesn't count any of the folks from any of the shows I've displayed my layouts at who might also have been inspired to join.
Modeling the Rio Grande Southern First District circa 1938-1946 in HOn3.
Dave Vollmer wrote:We ought to have a seperate forum called "Model Railroading is Dying" since we can't stop yaking about it! ...
...
IRONROOSTER wrote: Dave Vollmer wrote: We ought to have a seperate forum called "Model Railroading is Dying" since we can't stop yaking about it! ... Sign me up!!EnjoyPaul
Dave Vollmer wrote: We ought to have a seperate forum called "Model Railroading is Dying" since we can't stop yaking about it! ...
May I volunteer to be the moderator for this separate forum???
The slot car guys and the model car building guys ask the same threads too all too often.....nothing new here.
I don't see much youth getting into anything requiring them to entertain themselves, tehy want to be entertained (Electonic stuff)....adults in general are impatient these days and want instat gratification....tough social trends to overcome but it is what it is.
-Dan
Builder of Bowser steam! Railimages Site
BillD53A wrote:Fine Scale Railroader is ending its run in January.
In reply to this line of comment over the past several posts, I believe that this may be a reflection of a savvy and responsive set of currently healthy suppliers/manufacturers who know what the modern hobbiest wants. In early times when models required a lot of tinkering and modification to make them look and run well, particularly for the craftsman, these magazines were an important conduit for information and tips. Now, with so much quality RTR stuff that needs much less craftsmanship to get it to look prototypical, there is less demand for the this type of publication. Very very few of us build our own locos and rolling stock. Modern kits of all kinds relevant to MRR are truly superb. So these publications have had their day.
My opinion.
I might also add that several times over the last few years, some of my customers in here - as you may have also - have noted that there are (has been) about 3 or 4 too many magazines going after the same market. People have commented that they have wondered who would be the first to go.
We all see some of the exact same stuff in different magazines. Not only is there a limited amount of consumer spending, and a limited amount of ad money...but there also is a limited amount of contributors.
IMO, this doesn't have as much to do with the hobby dying, as it does with simple economics.
One of the advantages of growing old is that you see things come around again and again. Take for instance gas prices. All through the 1960s, gasoline was cheap and so Americans fell in love with big gas guzzling cars. The result was demand outpaced supply so in the 1970s, gas prices started to skyrocket. So Americans began trading in the gas guzzlers for high mileage econo-boxes. Demand for gasoline fell and prices went flat for almost 20 years. By the 1990s, Americans again started falling in love with the big cars, this time in the form of SUVs. Demand shot up as did gas prices. Go figure.
What's this got to do with model railroading. Only that rising gas prices reduce disposable income meaning less money for hobbies like model railroading which could give the impression that interest is dying. The real point is that these sort of trends tend to repeat themselves in a cylical economy. I had my first HO layout as a boy in the early 1960s but like a lot of kids, other interests took over. I got back into the hobby in the late 1970s and I can remember the same kind of hand wringing about the future of the hobby even then. This was at the beginning of the video game boom and there was speculation that this was going to kill model railroading. Guess what. It didn't happen. Not then and not now. Model railroading is and always has been a niche market. It's not something that interests everybody. But once you get the bug, you're hooked. Certainly there are not a lot of young kids getting into the hobby but I'd bet it has always been that way. Trust me. Model railroading isn't going away. I've seen this movie before.
Hmm well here is something I hadn't thought of till now.... maybe the magazines are slowing because there is so much demand for RTR trains. Seems lots of the older magazines featured lots of how-tos and lots of modelers depended on that info to create their layouts. Now with so much available that makes it easy and quick I think waiting on that info seems moot but the internet is a factor as well. I am impressed with the latest releases of steam engines and diesels but I really have no need for sound in trains. I usually can run 3 trains at the same time and with all three of those locos chugging tooting and what not seems like too much racket to really enjoy...usually I just have one of my grandpa's old steam lp's playing lightly for background filler. I really dont like RTR or prebuilt stuff I like kits and have tried to scratchbuild a few items and will continue that way.
on30francisco wrote:A little off-topic but what Ne06874 mentioned brings back a lot of good memories. I remember the displays that Higbee's had in their store on Public Square around Christmas. They were beautiful and would further encourage my interests in model railroading.
CurtMc wrote:What does Thomas mean about the model train hobby .............nothing!
http://www.pegnsean.net/~railwayseries/ffarquhar.htm
CurtMc, read this link, and then try to repeat your last quote. Thomas is largly based on a real prototype (British), and the creators of Sodor and the TV show have probably forgotten more about model railroading than you will ever know - especially with the attitude exibited in your quote. Thomas has and will bring more people into our hobby than a thousand people with superior attitudes.
I doubt that the hobby is dying off, per se, but as the bean counters and marketing analysts call it, "going through an adjustment". My dad involved us in model and toy trains as kids. Our first sets were Marklin (dad was a career military man who happened to get stationed in France) and Lionel. We played with them for a few years, then they got put on the back burner as our interests changed (cars and girls, and in that order). Then as we got older, and cars got harder to work on and, well, so did girls, we looked for something to fill our spare time. And those memories of spending time with Dad, running trains, come back and we pick up a Model Railroader or two.
Hmmm... That space in the basement (or garage, or spare bedroom) might be just right for a small layout or module. Of course, by this time, we have children or grandchildren, that, believe it or not, DO become interested in what we're doing. They may not stick with it, for now. But then, neither did we, but the seeds were and are planted.
And remember, how many catalogs were anywhere near the size of a Walthers Reference Guide when we were kids? And that's just the HO one! Dying off? I think not...
Marlon
See pictures of the Clinton-Golden Valley RR