Is the hobby doomed?

[CNJ831]

QUOTE: Originally posted by Ibflattop

Oh Nooooooo not Gloomy Gus again. Is it time to give him another Kiwi Shine to the Hind, and kick him well ya know if ya been in the Military. I have been in this hobby for close to 40 years. And he shows up every once in a while. Ya just have to put up with him. Kevin

It's really sad to see on this forum that the last bastion of the naive or ignorant is always insults and name calling. Never changes.

CNJ831

[MidlandPacific]

QUOTE: It's really sad to see on this forum that the last bastion of the naive or ignorant is always insults and name calling. Never changes.

CNJ831

Please. You're the one who posted a message stating - not inferring, stating - that the discussion here was "totally uninformed." That's pretty insulting.

[MAbruce]

QUOTE: Originally posted by nucat78

QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831

Instead of an endless, totally meaningless, series of, "Well, I think..." or "In my opinion..." posts, how about someone offering some concrete evidence (facts, figures, surveys, industry publications) demonstrating the current state of the hobby and its future?

CNJ831

Good idea. Go to the Securities and Exchange Commission site and you can read all the financial filings for publicly held US model making companies. You can Google "investor relations" and company name to read the annual reports on each company's Web site, if you prefer.

Good idea. Trouble is all the MRR manufacturers are either privately owned (not required to file with the SEC), or foreign owned (who play by very different set of reporting rules).

The bottom line is that there is no definitive financial or sales information available to settle this issue.

However I do agree with CNJ831’s principle that you can’t say for sure what’s going on in the industry without concrete information. It may seem to be going well, but in reality we’re all only offering speculation on based partial indicators that may or may not be accurately telling us what’s really going on.

But for now the hobby is alive and I hope it stays that way. [^]

[Anonymous]

SO WHAT IF IT'S DOOMED!!!!!! Are you going to sell your stuff if it is? give it away? throw it out? No, I doubt it, this useless thread keeps coming up, people speculate,name call and tell stories of showing grandkids their trains,it's all moot. The redundancy here borders on ludicrous. People who like trains buy them, model them and enjoy them,what happens to the hobby , happens. Manufactuers come and go, look around folks, there's a whole lot of neat stuff out there for all scales. Some people get into trains and find out that even though it's a hobby, there's a lot of work and time in it, some leave, some stay. I don't give a rats tail about the future of it, I'm staying,what about you?????

[jfugate]

Well, lets talk about what we do know.

We do know that Magazine subscriptions are falling. The question is why?

Is the hobby shrinking, or is it because the internet is making so much info available for free that people don't see print magazines as all that necessary any more? Or is it because all the massive influx of new hobby members can't read? [swg]

I suspect the hobby numbers themselves are shrinking *and* some are letting their subscriptions lapse because the internet gives them the info they need for free -- so it's a bit of both.

However, the internet itself could also help give the hobby a shot in the arm. Take the slot car hobby, for instance.

Slot cars were all the rage in the 1960s, then the hobby waned and was given up for dead by the 1980s. Then in the 1990s, along came the internet and now the slot car hobby is seeing a rebirth of interest.

The reason is the internet. It's now possible for anyone on the planet who is interested in slot cars to get in contact, swap ideas, sell each other pieces parts, etc.

I expect the same is becoming true with the model railroading hobby. What the internet has taken away from the print publishing business it has given back by allowing us model train hobbists to connect with each other in a way that was unthinkable 15 years ago.

So is the hobby doomed? I think not. Is it shrinking? Perhaps, but then all hobbies go through ebb and flow growth cycles, and it's probably too early to tell where it's really all headed. In the meantime, the model train hobby market has more rich and robust offerings than ever, so I figure enjoy it while it lasts. [swg]

[CNJ831]

QUOTE: Originally posted by rripperger

QUOTE: It's really sad to see on this forum that the last bastion of the naive or ignorant is always insults and name calling. Never changes.

CNJ831

Please. You're the one who posted a message stating - not inferring, stating - that the discussion here was "totally uninformed." That's pretty insulting.

Yes, Rob, and I'd have to say that I was quite correct in saying it. Show me a single post in this or previous discussions of this subject where anyone has taken the time to actually research the available data and then present any facts, figures or trends that they found when posting. In four or five years on this forum I haven't seen it done by a single individual. Posts here always are limited to totally unsubstantiated speculation. And, yes, I have indeed taken the time myself to delve into the facts and figures and have posted them on this forum several times...always to be insulted or shouted down by those who haven't a clue.

CNJ831

[Walter Clot]

Did you know that the Boy Scouts have a badge (or something) in model railroading. They came to the TCRR Museum in Nashville and had a class on assembling Athearn box cars.
I think smart dads (and Moms) will seek every way possible to do things together with their kids. The mr hobby is a great way. The more you do with your kids, the less time and money they will have for all that bad stuff that is out there. I'm a 70 year old kid. Even my grand daughters like the hobby!

[MidlandPacific]

QUOTE: Yes, Rob, and I'd have to say that I was quite correct in saying it. Show me a single post in this or previous discussions of this subject where anyone has taken the time to actually research the available data and then present any facts, figures or trends that they found when posting. In four or five years on this forum I haven't seen it done by a single individual. Posts here always are limited to totally unsubstantiated speculation. And, yes, I have indeed taken the time myself to delve into the facts and figures and have posted them on this forum several times...always to be insulted or shouted down by those who haven't a clue.

CNJ831

Well, if you've done it, why not post it, instead of just resorting to the invective and insult ('haven't a clue,' 'uninformed,' and 'ignorant' being three choice terms) you claim to be decrying? That might actually advance the discussion - I mean, if that is your purpose.

[Walter Clot]

The tide comes in and the tide goes out. Did you know that the hoola hoop was making a come back? I really don't care. I couldn't do it when I was young. I'm not going to throw my back out (again) trying now. What is the mr hobby doing? I don't know. If anyone want to throw their stuff away, see me, I'll take it.

[CNJ831]

QUOTE: Originally posted by rripperger

QUOTE: Yes, Rob, and I'd have to say that I was quite correct in saying it. Show me a single post in this or previous discussions of this subject where anyone has taken the time to actually research the available data and then present any facts, figures or trends that they found when posting. In four or five years on this forum I haven't seen it done by a single individual. Posts here always are limited to totally unsubstantiated speculation. And, yes, I have indeed taken the time myself to delve into the facts and figures and have posted them on this forum several times...always to be insulted or shouted down by those who haven't a clue.

CNJ831

Well, if you've done it, why not post it, instead of just resorting to the invective and insult ('haven't a clue,' 'uninformed,' and 'ignorant' being three choice terms) you claim to be decrying? That might actually advance the discussion - I mean, if that is your purpose.

Rob - Why not take the time and go back through the older threads on the subject yourself and actually look up what I posted, in considerable detail, at least 3-4 times previously?

There's little point in my posting all that information again, simply because no one here seems to really care about being informed on the subject, let alone to research anything pertaining to it. Unpopular facts, statistics and trends are simply rejected outright, they don't advance any discussion here. What usually result is a flurry of insults, name calling and inneundos when these folks' fantasies are challenged - a perfect example being ibflatop's post. Is that what you consider an appropriate and intelligent response in any discussion?

It appears to me that most folks here are desperate to hold on to the concept that the hobby is absolutely flourishing and will continue to do so forever, or else their perfect little Never Never Lands will be threatened. Personally, in any discussion I'd much rather stand back and see a situation for what it is, pleasing or otherwise, rather than to endlessly delude myself.

CNJ831

[Tom Curtin]

I see evidence that model railroading is not at all failing. The best evidence is that the sheer variety and volume of stuff that is available continues to grow. If it's growing, it must be in demand, pure and simple.

That said, let me offer a few remarks about things on the down side .

1. Everybody says magazine subscriptions are declining. I can't comment on this since I don't follow the numbers (nor do I even know where to get them from). If this is true I don't know why. Now . . . Is it subscriptions that are declining, or actual circulation that is declining? Reason I ask is that you can buy MR in a variety of places --- even Barnes & Noble stores, believe it or not. Perhaps modelers find sources like that more cost-effective.

2. The LHS business is indeed disppearing. Nothing unique about this --- all kinds of local shops are disappearing. We may philosophically mourn their passing but the plain fact is that our American buying practices are creating the trend. We are becoming a nation of superstores, and on-line shoppers. Almost everything we buy, except high-end luxury merchandise, is being reduced to a commodity. In model railroading on-line outlets are cropping up at least as fast as LHS are failing.

3. Despite the McMansions we read about in Home magazines, I think more Americans are living in smaller spaces, such as condos. This often means little or no layout space. Another home building trend I am seeing and hearing about --- and this one utterly amazes me --- is slab houses being built even in northerly latitudes like Ohio and New Jersey!!! This is another thing that obviously takes away layout space. It's a good thing that publications like the annual Model Railroad planning that just came out are featuring more spare bedroom-size plans. (Geez, I can't talk --- my wife and I live in a Manhattan hi-rise without even a spare bedroom !!!). Anmyway, all these lifestyle trends will almost have to have some effect on the hobby's future.

4. I think there's no doubt craftsman-type modeling is dying. There are even more and more fully assembled buildings available!!! You never used to see any.

[Anonymous]

CNJ831,

I just tried a search to find your past posts on this subject. I must being doing something wrong. Could you at least provide the links to the past threads. I agree you shouldn't have to retype all that information more than once.

thanks.

[MidlandPacific]

QUOTE: Rob - Why not take the time and go back through the older threads on the subject yourself and actually look up what I posted, in considerable detail, at least 3-4 times previously?

Because I'm not that interested in what you have to say, and I'm not here to do the work of making your argument for you. That's your responsibility. I can only evaluate you on what you present, and up until now, you haven't presented much, other than the unsupported assertions you decry when they come from other people.

Look, my point is simple: if you have something to contribute, do it: you know where it is, it takes two seconds to cut and paste, and it would actually add something to the discussion. It would probably be more interesting than the name-calling you've been engaged in. You say it's out there: fine, then produce. I've challenged you three times now to offer something constructive and all you've done is dodge - not much of a response from a guy who insists that he represents the voice of analytic rigor. Nobody can make any kind of an assessment of your views without the "facts" that support them, and you've continually refused to provide them.

Under those circumstances, and given your own use of innuendo, insult and name-calling, you really can't expect people to respond in any other way. It's astonishing to me that you've continued to belittle everyone who's participating in this discussion without once feeling the need to provide the facts that you claim make your case airtight.

So unless you're going to provide something, as far as I'm concerned, this discussion is over.

[CNJ831]

QUOTE: Originally posted by rripperger

QUOTE: Rob - Why not take the time and go back through the older threads on the subject yourself and actually look up what I posted, in considerable detail, at least 3-4 times previously?

Because I'm not that interested in what you have to say, and I'm not here to do the work of making your argument for you.

A classic! "I'm not interested enough in the subject to look into what's been previously posted to see what's there...give it to me on a platter or I'll disregard you!" Just more of the same stuff I just talked about. Ignorance is bliss!

Anyone honestly interested would take the time. I've already explained why I feel it would do little good to re-post all the material. A few others have approached me and did look up the info on their own...whether you do or not doesn't concern me in the least but it certainly does demonstrate how much actual interest you have in this discussion. The information in those past threads can be found with little difficulty. Those with an interest in the subject can do a little researching without harming themselves.

QUOTE:
That's your responsibility. So unless you're going to provide something, as far as I'm concerned, this discussion is over.

Well...isn't that wonderful to know, Rob!

CNJ831

[IRONROOSTER]

QUOTE: Originally posted by Tom Curtin
...
1. Everybody says magazine subscriptions are declining. I can't comment on this since I don't follow the numbers (nor do I even know where to get them from). If this is true I don't know why. Now . . . Is it subscriptions that are declining, or actual circulation that is declining? Reason I ask is that you can buy MR in a variety of places --- even Barnes & Noble stores, believe it or not. Perhaps modelers find sources like that more cost-effective.
...

4. I think there's no doubt craftsman-type modeling is dying. There are even more and more fully assembled buildings available!!! You never used to see any.

If you look at the statement MR includes every year (all magazines are required by law to do this) and compare years, you'll see that total circulation is down.

What you and I don't know, is if this is due to fewer modelers. Or the same number of modelers but they subscribe to fewer magazines, because of increased subscription cost, can find the info other places, the number of magazines dilutes the pool, or some combination of these.

As for craftsman modelers (your term), I suspect that in the past a lot of people did not like craftsman kits but did them because there wasn't much choice. Now there is a choice and they can opt out. I think that the number of people who enjoyed craftsman modeling has remained constant. Also, even if you like it you may not have enough time for it. If you're building 500-1000+ sq ft layout you may have to use RTR so you can get the layout going.

I personally enjoy craftsman kits and scratch/parts building, but I don't have the time to do eveything that way. So I use RTR (or near RTR), but also build craftsman kits. Having both available is the best of all worlds.

Enjoy
Paul

[whitman500]

Several people on this thread have asked for financial information on the major hobby producers. I went and looked on CapitalIQ, which is a research service for the investment banking and private equity industries. They have Athearn and Walthers with about $15MM in revenue and LifeLike at $40MM. This information may be wrong since these companies don't publicly file and CapitalIQ gets these estimates from sources like press releases and newspaper articles. Anyway, with that caveat, this data highlights how small the major hobby producers are. Businesses of this size often don't have a lot of margin for error and so I think this is a concerning data point. It would not take a major decline in interest in the hobby to put these companies into financial trouble.

[jfugate]

CNJ:

I tried to do a search on here and find your prior posts. Here's what I tried:

1. Clicked on your ID and then did a search of all your prior posts. I got 4 pages of posts that went back to Feb, none with the data you reference.

2. Tried a general search of the forum. The first problem is what keywords you use to find the post. Here's what I tried:

- demographics
- market
- shrinking

I only got 2-4 pages of posts going back into February, none with the info you mention.

I recall you posting the info, but I don't recall the specifics. I looks like your past data may not be as readily available on here as you're suggesting. I'm always interested in your posts and read them, so here's one guy that isn't uninterested. If you recall, I've also checked Congressional Studies on Americans online, and post some of their findings on here, so I also am interested in more than mere speculation around the future of the hobby, the effect of the internet on the hobby, etc.

[selector]

This will get us close.

http://www.trains.com/community/forum/topic.asp?page=-1&TOPIC_ID=38525&REPLY_ID=401621#401621

[IRONROOSTER]

From http://www.greatesthobby.com/wgh/default.aspx?c=a&id=88

QUOTE:
More than 500,000 American adults enjoy the model railroading hobby, spending $500 million annually.

I have no idea where they got their figures, what year they are for, how they compare to other years, or what's/who's included. Nor does their site say. But they are the only figures I can find.

Enjoy
Paul

[jfugate]

QUOTE: Originally posted by selector

This will get us close.

http://www.trains.com/community/forum/topic.asp?page=-1&TOPIC_ID=38525&REPLY_ID=401621#401621

Selector:

Yay, you found one!

Also, I note this post following CNJ's stats-laden post in the thread above:

QUOTE: Originally posted by WickhamMan

CNJ,

Excellent post! [bow]

Looks like there are people on here who appreciate CNJ's posts, myself included.

These stats are from MR's own reader surveys, and since these surveys are voluntary, they could be skewed because the people who exhibit the characteristics being measured are the ones who typically respond to surveys (in other words, the younger modelers may not bother to fill out a survey).

This could skew the results, but the trends are probably still valid since they line up with people's observations for the most part.

CNJ points out the trends all break and head downhill before the rise of the internet. True enough, but I suspect the internet has only increased the downhill slide of magazine circulation. Meanwhile the internet has made it far easier for modelers to connect and share information, which would tend to inject more interest and energy into the hobby. So the effect of the internet may be a wash.

As you look at history in general, you notice things change over time. Those who are part of the prior area that is being overhauled because of changes in the public's desires and new technology nearly always decry their sacred cow is being slaughtered.

History shows, however, that those people who were part of the previous thing all eventually adapted and went on to the new thing and it was "the same thing just expressed differently." In other words, the model train hobby may be morphing into something expressed differently than it was in the past, but it will almost certainly not die. Just watching the popularity of Thomas and Polar Express shows there is a fascination with trains in the general public that will always remain.

[gmcrail]

Short answer : Yes!

Long answer: About 100 years after the last flanged wheel rolls on steel rail. [;)]

[Anonymous]

There are several negative indicators. CNJ's data seems to point to these trends: magazine circulation is falling off, there are fewer skilled model-makers, and the average age of the NMRA member and MR subscriber is getting older. Also, it has been pointed out that LHS's are disappearing.

With regard to the above, magazine circulation in general has been dropping off. Also, as pointed out the MR surveys are considered voluntary response and therefore not scientific. I'm not saying that it isn't true, just that there could be confounding variables that skew the results. The LHS's are disappearing because of the two trends already pointed out; one, small shops in general are disappearing, and two, the internet is weeding out the weak stores.

The only data that I find disturbing is that there are fewer skilled model-makers in the hobby. I think the NMRA data and the RMC data are related to this trend. I do see this trend where people don't want to scratch-build things and don't even want to assemble kits. This is reflected in the disappearing of kits in LHS's. I think this is due in part to the emergence of highly detailed RTR models. People who have joined the hobby in recent years seem to not be interested in learning those skills. I'm worried that these skills will disappear eventually.

I think there are three things that I think point to a positive future. One is the popularity of Thomas. I think it will encourage future interest. Another is the trend of people joining the hobby after they either have started a family or have retired. These people seem to have had some sort of interest in trains in their childhood and then moved away from it. I think Thomas plus this trend will mean more hobbyists in the future. Also, the fact that baby boomers are retiring now I think means that at least in the short term, there will be an upsurge in interest in this hobby.

[tangerine-jack]

Then there are guys like me who don't answer polls, who don't belong to clubs, and are not registered on anybody's rolls and can't even spell NMRA. We are loners and like it so. Doesn't mean we are not skilled in the arts of Model Railroading, whatever the scale.

This hobby has always had dips in popularity over the years. It's still here. It's not going away, just changing like it always has. Anybody notice the increase in Garden Railroaders lately? Come to York, PA March 31 to April 2 and get a surprise.

[CNJ831]

Joe F., et.al. - Yes, the thread to look up is #38525. I have a number of posts therein worth reading in regard to the general state of the hobby today and in recent years. However, the two by me - one each on the first and 2nd pages, dated June 6th and 10th 2005 (replying first to Fireman and then WickamMan), are the ones that are most detailed and based on several years of personal research.

Originally when I started my research on this subject, I went in with an opened mind and strictly out of curiousity, with no point to prove. I had expected to find at least a few verifiable indicators or trends that would at least imply things were better than the many downward facts, figures, and trends were at first suggesting. Unfortunately, I never found a single one. I've asked posters here and on other forums for 4 years now to please post any verifiable, published, positive indicators or figures about the hobby's recent changes in direction. To date not a single instance of this has been offered...only endless, baseless, opinion. From this, I can only conclude that there simply are no upbeat signs anywhere.

While each negative point I found, if taken totally alone, can in some manner have a possible alternate explanation, when all the points are considered together, as they should be, together with the total lack of positive facts or indicators, it is impossible to escape the conclusion that there is no bright future ahead for the hobby. It really all seems to come down to the fact that model railroading is pretty much a pre-Boomer and Boomer's hobby. These folks make up, by far, the majority of hobbyist. The facts and figures indicate that their influence has already peaked in the hobby and has started to decline, so there is simply no where to go but down. The manufacturers see it, the magazine publishers see it, only the hobbyists seem to refuse to acknowledge the situation. I, too, wish it weren't so but it is.

CNJ831

[NeO6874]

QUOTE: Originally posted by San Diego Coaster


The only data that I find disturbing is that there are fewer skilled model-makers in the hobby. I think the NMRA data and the RMC data are related to this trend. I do see this trend where people don't want to scratch-build things and don't even want to assemble kits. This is reflected in the disappearing of kits in LHS's. I think this is due in part to the emergence of highly detailed RTR models. People who have joined the hobby in recent years seem to not be interested in learning those skills. I'm worried that these skills will disappear eventually.

Well, thats going to be not so great for me then... I am returning to the hobby after about 4 years because of Highschool (granted being in college doesnt give me time or room to build _ANYTHING_). Now, I can't speak for all the new people to join this hobby in recent years, but i can speak for myself.

After browsing through many RTR sets (hey, i need a fix and i need it NOW) I ended up asking members of this forum which i should buy (based on their experiences with different vendor's product lines). I had some really good advice as to what sets I would be happy with (for the week before roundy roundy got boring) . But one of the last posts before the topic was doomed to the second page, one of the members here suggested looking at bowser kits. So I did.

Now _THOSE_ I can do. They wouldn't need too much space to assemble (pro for small dorm room), and even if they're sitting as a zinc casting on a 9" straight waiting till i can get paints, they'd be better than nothing. Not to mention that they don't even look that hard, well at least compared to the brass "how to build a..." models that MRR will run every so often. In all, I know that I will be buying kits at some point just for the "hey, i built that" factor... now if i hand spike an entire layout (hey, if the RR companies didnt have ready-made sections....) somebody get me whatever the MRR AA equivalent is [;)]

[MAbruce]

QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831


While each negative point I found, if taken totally alone, can in some manner have a possible alternate explanation, when all the points are considered together, as they should be, together with the total lack of positive facts or indicators, it is impossible to escape the conclusion that there is no bright future ahead for the hobby. It really all seems to come down to the fact that model railroading is pretty much a pre-Boomer and Boomer's hobby. These folks make up, by far, the majority of hobbyist. The facts and figures indicate that their influence has already peaked in the hobby and has started to decline, so there is simply no where to go but down. The manufacturers see it, the magazine publishers see it, only the hobbyists seem to refuse to acknowledge the situation. I, too, wish it weren't so but it is.

CNJ831

Sorry CNJ831 - got to call you out on this one.

While I agree with you that an argument could be made that the MRR industry is facing a big challenge with much a smaller post-Boomer customer base, I think you are contradicting your own criticism by making such a conclusion based on partial facts. Just because there is a lack of positive facts or indicators does not mean they don’t exist. You’re forgetting that the key indicators are not accessible: Sales data history, financial data history on each company, and any internal marketing studies that are doubtlessly done by each company.

If I made such conclusions based on partial information, I would lose my job. My answer would be that we are simply lacking the necessary information to make a determination.

[CNJ831]

QUOTE: Originally posted by MAbruce

QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831


While each negative point I found, if taken totally alone, can in some manner have a possible alternate explanation, when all the points are considered together, as they should be, together with the total lack of positive facts or indicators, it is impossible to escape the conclusion that there is no bright future ahead for the hobby. It really all seems to come down to the fact that model railroading is pretty much a pre-Boomer and Boomer's hobby. These folks make up, by far, the majority of hobbyist. The facts and figures indicate that their influence has already peaked in the hobby and has started to decline, so there is simply no where to go but down. The manufacturers see it, the magazine publishers see it, only the hobbyists seem to refuse to acknowledge the situation. I, too, wish it weren't so but it is.

CNJ831

Sorry CNJ831 - got to call you out on this one.

Just because there is a lack of positive facts or indicators does not mean they don’t exist. You’re forgetting that the key indicators are not accessible: Sales data history, financial data history on each company, and any internal marketing studies that are doubtlessly done by each company.

If I made such conclusions based on partial information, I would lose my job. My answer would be that we are simply lacking the necessary information to make a determination.

Bruce, I agree that it is difficult extrapolating from partial data sometimes. However, no one will ever see the manufacturers figures and I expect they might be misleading anyway. Certainly, manufacturing volume has decreased dramatically in recent years, while prices of quality items have increased at an all-time record rate, in spite of actual production moving overseas. Profit margins are definitely up, so it is likely that many company's bottom line hasn't changed all that much...yet. Even so, look at the rash of buyouts, closures and companies quietly up for sale currently. It's never happened in the hobby before on such a scale. So again...why just now?

As I've pointed out before, if I could have discovered upwards of a dozen indicators pointing to a downward trend, why has it been impossible for myself or anyone else to offer even a single, verifiable, positive figure/trend in four years? If they are out there, someone would have come across at least one by now. We certainly can't all have our heads in the sand. There are others with an interest in this area. In these discussions I always hear the cry, "Well, your research isn't complete and all inclusive enough to define the situation...you may be missing items!" If so, please by all means, let's see the documented findings of others that show the opposite situation. If it can't be done, then the fantasy of a supposedly flourishing hobby quickly desolves.

As to loosing one's situation by not presenting enough facts and indicators to solidify a position absolutely, how would you react in a business situation to those here whose only contribution is, "In my (baseless) opinion..."?

CNJ831

[grayfox1119]

Can the LHS make it today? Let me point to one LHS here in the Pioneer Valley of central west Massachusetts.
Tuckers is situated in a little old New England country town of Warren. Population is about 8k, as well as most of the surrounding towns. So the customer base is not like a big city. Yet, Bob Buck has survived very nicely, and continues to be a great little store. He is extremely knowledgeable, not only about the manufacturers, and the hobby itself, but about trains themselves. His store is actually on the 1st floor a 19th century victorian style house. He has it jam-packed with plenty of stock, old and new, brass and diecast. He carries all sorts of mags, books, videos, assessories, multi-scale also.
He offers discounts and has nice sales, will order anything you want, and is a very nice person to speak with, just a great guy in his 80's, I love the man, may God give him 20 more years !!!
Customers are coming in and out all the time, so I know that his business is doing well, they BUY. We all have a great time talking with other modelers, etc.

The bottom line, any shop can survive, even in a small country town away from huge population areas, given the right mix for the business, control of costs, and excellent stock.

[Anonymous]

Let me start by saying I havent done years of research in this subject.This is a uncomplicated observation from a regular guy.First, this is one of those subjects that could and is debated forever.There are alot of factors involved.I used to be a believer that the hobby someday within ,say, 50 years or so, was going to be greatly diminish for alot of the reasons already mentioned,but then you see all the new products.These products cost alot to produce and if there werent alot of people buying them they wouldnt be producing them.And then theres all the Train Shows and Epos.I've been to train shows in St Louis and Colinsville,Il.,large shows and medium sized ones and EVERY one of them was PACKED with people.i do believe that the younger people comming up in the hobby(especially ones with alot of excess cash) are going more and more for the RTR buildings,equip.etc.This is a result of the times we are living in.People have less and less time to do hobbies as they are working more andmore to make more money for expensive items that just 20years ago were deemed luxury items of the rich.This is driven by the advertising we are bondarded with everywhere.That 27 in TV that you used to be happy with,is now replaced with a 40in plasma flat panel.The vehicle you drive cost a fortune,and so on.So less time but more money for hobbies=RTR.I just like to say that I think model RR will be around for a long time,but it is and will continue to evolve.The hobby will be alot different 20 years from now.And yes I hate to see the true craftsmen in any hobby disappear as they are everyday.The 80year old master craftsmen are not being replaced on a 1:1 basis.

[jfugate]

Well, if the hobby was to go down the tubes, the scratchbuilders/craftsman will get their way.

With the market smaller, there would be fewer products and then you would have to scratchbuild a lot more -- so there you go! There's a bright side to every outcome. [swg]