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There are several negative indicators. CNJ's data seems to point to these trends: magazine circulation is falling off, there are fewer skilled model-makers, and the average age of the NMRA member and MR subscriber is getting older. Also, it has been pointed out that LHS's are disappearing. With regard to the above, magazine circulation in general has been dropping off. Also, as pointed out the MR surveys are considered voluntary response and therefore not scientific. I'm not saying that it isn't true, just that there could be confounding variables that skew the results. The LHS's are disappearing because of the two trends already pointed out; one, small shops in general are disappearing, and two, the internet is weeding out the weak stores. The only data that I find disturbing is that there are fewer skilled model-makers in the hobby. I think the NMRA data and the RMC data are related to this trend. I do see this trend where people don't want to scratch-build things and don't even want to assemble kits. This is reflected in the disappearing of kits in LHS's. I think this is due in part to the emergence of highly detailed RTR models. People who have joined the hobby in recent years seem to not be interested in learning those skills. I'm worried that these skills will disappear eventually. I think there are three things that I think point to a positive future. One is the popularity of Thomas. I think it will encourage future interest. Another is the trend of people joining the hobby after they either have started a family or have retired. These people seem to have had some sort of interest in trains in their childhood and then moved away from it. I think Thomas plus this trend will mean more hobbyists in the future. Also, the fact that baby boomers are retiring now I think means that at least in the short term, there will be an upsurge in interest in this hobby.
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