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Are modellers be priced out the hobby?

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Posted by rolleiman on Monday, December 19, 2005 7:39 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by vsmith

Ever seen a $500+ R/C plane take off on its maiden flight, get airborne, roll over and auger straight into the pavement completely disintegrating in a cloud of powered balsa wood?

You'll never say this hobby is to expensive after looking at other hobbies.


Nope.. But I've seen a $500+ RC boat catch something in the prop and pull itself to the murky bottom of the lake... I really felt bad for the owner.. I'll bet that there's someone here who forgot to put his liftout bridge back in and ran his $500 brass loco off of the table and on to the floor.. It wasn't me though, Mine was a $30 Athearn GP35. It happens in all hobbies.

Jeff
Modeling the Wabash from Detroit to Montpelier Jeff
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Posted by edkowal on Monday, December 19, 2005 11:20 PM
With all of the weeping and gnashing of teeth about modellers being priced out of the hobby, I think it might be relevant to ask the following:

How many here in this discussion thread actually know of someone who has been priced OUT of the hobby? And by that I mean just that, someone who gave up and no longer participates in any way, as a result of prices being too high. I am assuming that everyone that has posted a response here is still an active model railroader.

Sure, there are many who can't buy everything that they would like to, but that's always been true. Nobody that I know has an unlimited discretionary income fund. We all save up until we can afford a particularly choice item, we have to make prioritized lists, and above all, we have to be realistic in our expectations. None of those facts have changed in forty years. I doubt it was any different before that.

-Ed

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Posted by CNJ831 on Tuesday, December 20, 2005 8:38 AM
QUOTE: Originally posted by edkowal

With all of the weeping and gnashing of teeth about modellers being priced out of the hobby, I think it might be relevant to ask the following:

How many here in this discussion thread actually know of someone who has been priced OUT of the hobby? And by that I mean just that, someone who gave up and no longer participates in any way, as a result of prices being too high. I am assuming that everyone that has posted a response here is still an active model railroader.


Yes, as an older hobbyist I can point to several colleagues of my generation who have totally withdrawn from the purchasing aspect of the hobby where new motive power and rolling stock are concerned...simply because of price considerations. I know that is not quite the same as leaving the hobby altogether but in an economic sense, they certainly have. I would not consider any of them "poor", yet they all express that over their long stints in the hobby they have never seen prices increase the way they have over the past decade and can not afford any new items. These guys are making do with their older Athearn or similar engines and cars and have no plans to make further purchases in the future.

Likewise, I've been in the LHS twice now when individuals have come in asking about starting in the hobby and wanting to know the price of the materials necessary to construct a simple 4x8 project layout the like ones appearing in MR. After the store owner pointed out the need to purchase items of at least modest quality so that the newcomer won't be disappointed and gives a price, they left the store without comment!

CNJ831
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Posted by joeyegarner on Tuesday, December 20, 2005 9:18 AM
QUOTE: Originally posted by Student of Big Sky Blue

I don't think modelers are being priced out of the hobby. But they are definatly being "Ready to Runed" out of the hobby.

Current Walthers Catalong. Almost Every Locomotive, half the freight cars and 1/3 the building kits were Simply open the box and set on the layout. Next thing you know pre made Model Rairlaod Modules where all you have to do is bolt them together will be sold will become main stream. By then we will have to stop calling it model rairlaoding and start calling it miniature railroading because no one will be left who actually knows how to build a model.

James.

I agree, this has been mentioned here before and what bothers me most is a lot of the models today are RTR, I started at this over 30 years ago and most things had at least some assembly required. Now days you can buy it and set it on your layout. And what modeling skills does that take? I have no desire to buy RTR kitts because it takes the modeling out of model railroading. Like James said it then becomes miniature railroading.
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Posted by cmrproducts on Tuesday, December 20, 2005 9:58 AM
If you want to be in the hobby (any hobby) you will find a way.

From the sounds of things it seems like every one figures if we complain enough the prices will come down! They won’t until enough modelers quit buying the expensive stuff.

All hobbies require a lot of ca***o be involved in them if you are serious. (Try building a show car, once!) If you are not serious then you will spend a lot of money and soon lose interest as it will just be a passing fad.

I have seen this with many new members of our club. They jump right in (building their own home layout) but soon lose interest as the layout is not being built fast enough, or they get the layout done and wonder what else there is to do. They soon are off onto something else (R/C, fishing, boating, 4-wheelers, etc.) and again this only lasts a short while!

They do not want to spend the time to learn the skills of modeling as it takes too much time. But THIS is the fun of modeling the time involvement!

What gets me is the DCC thing and how few want to learn the basics of decoder installs. Why? Too much time to learn the basics of what makes an engine operate. Once the basics are learned then installing a decoder in no big deal. I have given several clinics on decoder installs and those in attendance are amazed as to the simplicity of the project.

It all boils down to, if you want to learn how to do something you can. But the trade off is time. If you don’t want to put in the time, then throw money at it and anything can be accomplished.

So don’t say it costs too much only because you want the RTR stuff and not put the time into a project to learn it.

Just my 2 cents

BOB H – Clarion, PA
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Posted by vsmith on Tuesday, December 20, 2005 10:01 AM
QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831

QUOTE: Originally posted by edkowal

With all of the weeping and gnashing of teeth about modellers being priced out of the hobby, I think it might be relevant to ask the following:

How many here in this discussion thread actually know of someone who has been priced OUT of the hobby? And by that I mean just that, someone who gave up and no longer participates in any way, as a result of prices being too high. I am assuming that everyone that has posted a response here is still an active model railroader.


Yes, as an older hobbyist I can point to several colleagues of my generation who have totally withdrawn from the purchasing aspect of the hobby where new motive power and rolling stock are concerned...simply because of price considerations. I know that is not quite the same as leaving the hobby altogether but in an economic sense, they certainly have. I would not consider any of them "poor", yet they all express that over their long stints in the hobby they have never seen prices increase the way they have over the past decade and can not afford any new items. These guys are making do with their older Athearn or similar engines and cars and have no plans to make further purchases in the future.

Likewise, I've been in the LHS twice now when individuals have come in asking about starting in the hobby and wanting to know the price of the materials necessary to construct a simple 4x8 project layout the like ones appearing in MR. After the store owner pointed out the need to purchase items of at least modest quality so that the newcomer won't be disappointed and gives a price, they left the store without comment!

CNJ831

Ah, but did that owner point out that model RRing takes time to build a good layout and that that eye popping pricetag can be spread out to a much more reasonable cost each month over the course of a year? or was the owner just trying to make a big sale? More likely, was the customer just looking for an open-the-box-and-plug-in layout?[;)]

Instant gratification devalues the worth of everything because no one has any investment in its actual creation.

I want it NOW daddy I want it NOWWWWW![V]

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Posted by vsmith on Tuesday, December 20, 2005 10:07 AM
QUOTE: Originally posted by rolleiman

QUOTE: Originally posted by vsmith

Ever seen a $500+ R/C plane take off on its maiden flight, get airborne, roll over and auger straight into the pavement completely disintegrating in a cloud of powered balsa wood?

You'll never say this hobby is to expensive after looking at other hobbies.


Nope.. But I've seen a $500+ RC boat catch something in the prop and pull itself to the murky bottom of the lake... I really felt bad for the owner.. I'll bet that there's someone here who forgot to put his liftout bridge back in and ran his $500 brass loco off of the table and on to the floor.. It wasn't me though, Mine was a $30 Athearn GP35. It happens in all hobbies.

Jeff



The wisest words regarding a hobby I ever heard was from the same guy who crashed the above plane...

As he surveyed the smoking remains of his plane he laughingly said "... Oh well, If you can't afford to wreck'em, don't bother fly'n'em (don't get into the hobby) ...!"[;)]

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Posted by andrechapelon on Tuesday, December 20, 2005 4:57 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831

QUOTE: Originally posted by edkowal

With all of the weeping and gnashing of teeth about modellers being priced out of the hobby, I think it might be relevant to ask the following:

How many here in this discussion thread actually know of someone who has been priced OUT of the hobby? And by that I mean just that, someone who gave up and no longer participates in any way, as a result of prices being too high. I am assuming that everyone that has posted a response here is still an active model railroader.


Yes, as an older hobbyist I can point to several colleagues of my generation who have totally withdrawn from the purchasing aspect of the hobby where new motive power and rolling stock are concerned...simply because of price considerations. I know that is not quite the same as leaving the hobby altogether but in an economic sense, they certainly have. I would not consider any of them "poor", yet they all express that over their long stints in the hobby they have never seen prices increase the way they have over the past decade and can not afford any new items. These guys are making do with their older Athearn or similar engines and cars and have no plans to make further purchases in the future.

Likewise, I've been in the LHS twice now when individuals have come in asking about starting in the hobby and wanting to know the price of the materials necessary to construct a simple 4x8 project layout the like ones appearing in MR. After the store owner pointed out the need to purchase items of at least modest quality so that the newcomer won't be disappointed and gives a price, they left the store without comment!

CNJ831


I wish people were more economically literate. Those wonderful RTR cars and locomotives require a capital investment by the manufacturer that HAS to be recovered. You can't sell something for less than it costs to build and make up the difference on volume. If all the tooling for (as an example) the BLI ATSF Northern costs $500,000, that cost has to be allocated to each piece produced. If there's a 5,000 piece run of the locos, $100 of the selling price that represents tooling costs (assuming no more are produced). And this is before all the other costs (marketing, distribution, cost of raw materials) are added in.

Tooling prices on a relative basis have actually come down over the years, thanks to CAD and CAM. Otherwise, we wouldn't have the variety of highly detailed plastic equipment we do now. When Gordon Varney was doing his thing, all that tooling was done by a tool and die maker by hand.

This hobby, for all the moaning about high prices, is not price sensitive in the same fashion as wheat or other commodities. Halving the price of the stuff we buy is not going to induce a mass influx of new hobbyists. At best it might induce someone already in the hobby to buy two of an item that he/she might only buy one of. But it's not going to bring scads of new people to the hobby. People in this hobby are in it because they like trains and models of same. The dilettante who comes into an LHS and asks desultory questions about what's involved and how much it costs is going to walk out of the hobby shop because: 1. That person has no real interest in the trains per se. 2. That person is not willing to put in the required work to learn and 3. Even at half price, the hobby's not cheap.

Where are the screaming hordes banging on Bowser's door to buy locomotive kits now that they have lowered prices (albeit temporarily)? Most of Bowser's steam locomotive kits are Pennsy prototype. While I'm happy that SPF's (Slobbering Pennsy Freaks) are getting a break, there's no inducement for me to rush out and buy a Bowser kit or two or three. About the only locomotive of theirs that I will consider buying is the USRA Light Pacific, and it's not high on my list of priorities. IOW, if I decide I really want one down the line, I'll pay the going price. OTOH, if they want to pay me to take some of those Pennsy locos off their hands, I might consider it.

As for those who have quit buying current production, that's their privilege, but they need some lessons in elementary manufacturing economics and a good overview of just how small the model railroad market is compared to the market for cell phones, computers, cars, etc.

I'm an older hobbyist, too. I've been retired for over 4 years. My income is not what it used to be. What that means is that I have to be judicious in what I buy rather than getting everything that strikes my fancy. If I can't afford it now, I'll use an old low tech technique for acquiring what I want. It's called saving. There's some really wild stuff going on out there. Banks will actually pay you for the privilege of storing your money for you. There are companies that will pay you for owning their stock. AND, if you pay you credit card bill off in full every month, you don't pay outlandish interest.

Andre






It's really kind of hard to support your local hobby shop when the nearest hobby shop that's worth the name is a 150 mile roundtrip.
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Posted by CNJ831 on Tuesday, December 20, 2005 9:20 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by andrechapelon

As for those who have quit buying current production, that's their privilege, but they need some lessons in elementary manufacturing economics and a good overview of just how small the model railroad market is compared to the market for cell phones, computers, cars, etc.



Andre, it will be the manufacturers who need the lessons in economics in just a few years when they see their customer base dwindle to almost nil because the average hobbyists will be unable to afford their products. It happened with brass, falling from about 35% of the market share in the 1960's to probably less than 3% today (and resulting in the some brass importers transfering much of their energy into high-end plastic models to survive). You can most definitely price yourself right out of a market and that's just what will happen as more and more of the Boomers retire and drop out of the hobby because of high prices.

CNJ831







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Posted by whitman500 on Wednesday, December 21, 2005 8:38 AM
I think the problem is not so much that hobby companies are gouging customers or making huge profits but rather that people's expectations about what their layout should look like has increased in recent years. With sound, DCC, photo realistic backdrops, etc., you can really make a top quality layout that looks like the real thing. Certainly that is the case with the layouts that are featured in MR. However, these layouts cost real money: tens of thousands of dollars. In the past, a rich man's layout probably didn't look a lot better than a poor man's but that gap has really widened, and I think that discourages newbies who see the layouts in the magazine and get excited and then realize to their dismay the vast financial resources that are required to meet their expectations.

Separately, a number of people have mentioned how the startup costs for the hobby are daunting and this drives people away. One factor that may be contributing to this is the cost of tools. You see fewer and fewer people with home workshops these days and so while in the past a new hobbyist probably had a power drill, a couple of power saws, a soldering iron, etc., today many do not. I came into the hobby a year ago with nothing and had to spend probably $500-600 just to get equipped with the tools I needed to build benchwork.
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Posted by BRAKIE on Wednesday, December 21, 2005 8:49 AM
Its not the evil of RTR..Todays modelers demand perfection from simply opening the box..Well guess what..That cost money for the manufacturers to do.RTR evil? Nope perfection from the box is the cost factor.

Again,for you that whine about the high prices stop paying FULL MSRP and start buying from on line shops that makes these perfect models we want affordable.

Larry

Conductor.

Summerset Ry.


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Posted by Anonymous on Wednesday, December 21, 2005 10:31 AM
No, I just find things I can afford. If I can't afford it, I scratchbuild it.
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Posted by GoodoleBob on Wednesday, December 21, 2005 11:01 AM
I'm so new here my paint still smells. But I've played with my trains for near 45 years. I am not rich and work for a living as part of the down troddened middle class. The cost has never been a problem. I allocate some hobby money, and I also save for things that are more pricey. Be patient and most purchses can become a reality in a short time.

The real problem that has always plagued me has been availability. Not all the beginner stuff necessarily, but the serious supplies that the avid modeler sees advertised, but can't ever seem to get the actual items in his hands. Back orders that don't get filled, out of stock issues that because of limited interest never seem to get resolved, and small cottage businesses making just a few items at a time have a way of jamming up a project. Again I'm not referring to the everyday stuff like we see piled up at train shows. Try a brass steam detailing project out for size, and see how long it takes you to amass all the parts. I'd pay double to get them if I only could.

Have to agree the newbies to the hobby will find it pricey to collect enough to get going

Now you have another opinion that's only worth two cent.

Bob
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Posted by andrechapelon on Wednesday, December 21, 2005 11:49 AM
QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831

QUOTE: Originally posted by andrechapelon

As for those who have quit buying current production, that's their privilege, but they need some lessons in elementary manufacturing economics and a good overview of just how small the model railroad market is compared to the market for cell phones, computers, cars, etc.



Andre, it will be the manufacturers who need the lessons in economics in just a few years when they see their customer base dwindle to almost nil because the average hobbyists will be unable to afford their products. It happened with brass, falling from about 35% of the market share in the 1960's to probably less than 3% today (and resulting in the some brass importers transfering much of their energy into high-end plastic models to survive). You can most definitely price yourself right out of a market and that's just what will happen as more and more of the Boomers retire and drop out of the hobby because of high prices.

CNJ831





Yeah, and this was due to rising wage levels in Japan and later Korea. What do you expect? No importer has any control over wage levels in the supplying country. Imported brass RTR was unnaturally cheap compared to domestic products in part because brass construction doesn't require a large investment in tooling and because wage levels in Japan were very low compared to the U.S. (a situation which changed rapidly in the 70's). That's when brass production was transferred to Korea. Now Korean brass is priced high because Korean wage levels have also risen. With the disappearance of cheap brass, there's an economic opportunity to produce highly detailied plastic equipment which is perhaps more expensive perhaps than the lumps of plastic or cast metal from the "good old days", but is still cheaper than high end brass where the production runs are a 10th the size of what they used to be. The brass that's being manufactured now is for collectors, not for people who actually run their equipment.

Cheap Japanese and later Korean brass was what hampered the US model railroad industry for years. And the history of the manufacturers is vastly different from those of Europe. Brass never really caught on in Europe due to low wage levels (it may have been cheap on a relative basis in the US, but was very expensive for a European hobbyist). I realize that European wages have pretty much caught up with the US, but in the early post-war period hand-made brass was expensive relative the the wage levels of the time. This provided the European manufacturers time to improve their lines. The kind of smooth running and detailed stuff we're only now getting from Spectrum, P2K, Atlas and Athearn Genesis has been available in Europe for nearly 30 years and with domestic production. I have a couple of Roco European locomotives I picked up on a European trip in the early 80's. The detail is comparable with the best of brass from that era. Better, actually, and the running qualities are superb. They were also cheap in dollar terms, thanks to favorable exchange rates at the time.

I am not saying that a given manufacturer might not go bankrupt (e.g. Roco, Rivarossi). European prices are pretty high even when you discount the unfavorable exchange rate of the dollar vs. the euro. However, where is it the manufacturer's fault? The only way they can hold prices in line is to ship production to China (as Bachmann did with Liliput after the buyout and as Hornby is doing with Rivarossi). There's a lot more resistance in Europe than in the U.S. to buying overseas manufactured goods (the blind worship of low price as the alpha and omega of existence hasn't caught on there, at least not to the same extent as here). In any case, China's wage advantage is not going to last that long. Japan's didn't. Korea's didn't. What's next, Bangladesh?

Model railroad manufacturers are subject to the same economic forces as everyone else. However, their situation is exacerbated by the fact that the model railroad market is highly segmented (by scale, era, prototype) and the products are highly differentiated. Furthermore, the model railroad market is very small compared to other industries. There is no possiblity of enjoying any kind of returns to scale. The market will just never be that big. Even if it quadrupled in size tomorrow, it'd still be a miniscule market. Compared to the model railroad market, the craft market is gigantic and it still would be gigantic in comparison even if the model railroad market grew by 4 times overnight.

It's not the manufacturers who are to blame for whatever perceived wrongs are going on. You either find a way to adapt to new conditions or shut up shop. Mantua finally killed itself because it tried to make "collectors items" out of items where the basic tooling was in excess of 50 years old and bore (at best) only a vague resemblance to prototype. That's got to be one of the stupidest blunders in this hobby. Instead of following (at least) or leading (better yet) the trend toward highly detailed and smooth running plastic a la Spectrum, P2K, etc., they tried to rest on their rather tattered laurels. Yeah, the new stuff would have been more expensive, but at least there would have been a market for it.

Model railroad manufacturers have no more control over the the general economy than your local oil dealer has over the well head price of crude. Blaming the manufacturers may make you feel better, but you're shooting at the wrong target with an obsolete weapon while wearing blinders in a dense fog.

Andre



It's really kind of hard to support your local hobby shop when the nearest hobby shop that's worth the name is a 150 mile roundtrip.
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Posted by MAbruce on Wednesday, December 21, 2005 12:04 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by andrechapelon
It's not the manufacturers who are to blame for whatever perceived wrongs are going on.


QUOTE: Mantua finally killed itself because it tried to make "collectors items" out of items where the basic tooling was in excess of 50 years old and bore (at best) only a vague resemblance to prototype. That's got to be one of the stupidest blunders in this hobby.


So you first tell us it's not the manufactures fault for what's been going on in the industry, and then you turn around and give us an example of how a manufacturer committed one of the stupidest blunders in history????

May I suggest you re-read your posts before you hit the “post reply” button next time?

QUOTE: Blaming the manufacturers may make you feel better, but you're shooting at the wrong target with an obsolete weapon while wearing blinders in a dense fog.

Andre


After reading your post(s), I wonder who's really in the dense fog wearing blinders firing away with a musket at an airplane?
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Posted by selector on Wednesday, December 21, 2005 1:38 PM
Well, I happen to agree with Andre. We ARE the market, and they provide what we tell them we'll buy. How? With our wallets. Some don't have the money, and they are the losers, but no one ever compelled a company to stay in business to satisfy customer demand at the expense of the corporation. Maybe in the old USSR, but not elsewhere.
We vote with our cash, and they capitalize on the the undertstanding that if we decline to buy what they offer, they lose. If nothing toy train related can be sold in sufficient numbers, your darned right the industry will collapse. And it should. Yes, it would be a pity, but it would be a fact. We'd all move to wood carving.

So, Andre is in no fog. He is clearly stating what others seem to feel is an infringement on their God-given right to have really nice hobby stuff at an affordable price. Sorry, but when trains become truly unaffordable for me, I had better have a fallback. So should you.
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Posted by SpaceMouse on Wednesday, December 21, 2005 1:59 PM
I started out with a bonus check and blew through it very quickly spending money vary inappropriately--meaning buying stuff I ended up not needing or wanting. Since then I've turned into Joe cheap.

Now, I go to construction sites and get pieces of 2" foam. I have enough now o do all the mountains in my basement, I've salvaged the wood for my benchwork.

My structures I get off eBay in "lots" and end up spending around $3-4 structure. I don't just buy anything, but look for the hidden treasures. I got 4 craftsmen kits for $12 because of the way the ad was listed.

I then spend 10 hours or so on each tricking them out with paint and scenic grasses.

I pay $3 per car of rolling stock by rooting out deals at Train Shows.

Something's there's no getting around--like my Digitrax Zephyr. But other things--get creative. It's more productive than complaining.

Chip

Building the Rock Ridge Railroad with the slowest construction crew west of the Pecos.

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Posted by SpaceMouse on Wednesday, December 21, 2005 2:07 PM
Another way to save money is to trade and sell your stuff. No, I don't mean on eBay, that's the hard way. I mean with each other. When it comes to trusting people, this hobby has some of the tightest butt people out there. And the stakes aren't that high.

For instance, in Cowboy Action Shooting, guys trade and sell guns to each other on line all the time and no one gets ripped off. The last one I got was a Sharps .45-70 that I paid $1100 sight unseen. It is a great gun.

Here, people are so afraid of being ripped off by people that they talk to every day that they won't consider trading coaches because the other person might steal their identity because they have their address.

It's just sad.

Chip

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Posted by CNJ831 on Wednesday, December 21, 2005 2:19 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by selector

Well, I happen to agree with Andre. We ARE the market, and they provide what we tell them we'll buy. How? With our wallets. Some don't have the money, and they are the losers, but no one ever compelled a company to stay in business to satisfy customer demand at the expense of the corporation.


The problem, Selector, that so many seem to fail to acknowledge, is that most of the current manufacturers are not aiming at the WE but instead are producing for a select well-heeled segment of the hobby. The marketing strategy currently in place demands that items be soldout almost as soon as they come on shore. Historically, the average hobbyist has alway bought on impulse and assumed the item of his desire would be there when either he really wanted it or could afford it. As I alluded to previously, in the past the makers of mrr items were mainly hobbyists themselves and understood this, stocking their products to be available longterm. That era has past and we now see very limited runs and a "buy it now or lose" mentality. This only works for a relatively small percentage of hobbyists since, as the prices continue to grow yearly, the wages most hobbyists are not in any way keeping pace. In the long run, the hobby is going to suffer greatly from this. Today we are starting to see major manufacturers fall by the wayside, particularly in Europe where they have indeed priced themselves out of business (read the comments of those corporation leaders). Some are attempting to re-organize and return but this will be only temporary. Stateside you are going to see a number of further companies drop out or be absorbed by 2010. So far only Atlas appears to have given consideration to perpetuating the hobby by introducing affordable locos and rolling stock of constant availability. If others do not follow relatively soon, model railroading as a fairly widely enjoyed, viable hobby, will be gone before 2025.

CNJ831
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Posted by GAPPLEG on Wednesday, December 21, 2005 2:29 PM
I really welcome Atlas's trainman series, if they are decent, I buy what I can get and repaint anyway, I'll detail what I want to detail myself, I don't need a manufacturer to do that for me. It's hard to get undecorated units anymore.
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Posted by andrechapelon on Wednesday, December 21, 2005 4:50 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by MAbruce

QUOTE: Originally posted by andrechapelon
It's not the manufacturers who are to blame for whatever perceived wrongs are going on.


QUOTE: Mantua finally killed itself because it tried to make "collectors items" out of items where the basic tooling was in excess of 50 years old and bore (at best) only a vague resemblance to prototype. That's got to be one of the stupidest blunders in this hobby.


So you first tell us it's not the manufactures fault for what's been going on in the industry, and then you turn around and give us an example of how a manufacturer committed one of the stupidest blunders in history????

May I suggest you re-read your posts before you hit the “post reply” button next time?

QUOTE: Blaming the manufacturers may make you feel better, but you're shooting at the wrong target with an obsolete weapon while wearing blinders in a dense fog.

Andre


After reading your post(s), I wonder who's really in the dense fog wearing blinders firing away with a musket at an airplane?


Yeah, Mantua committed a major blunder. That's Mantua, not all the manufacturers in the business who, if some are to be believed, are out to rob us blind and then sell us the white walking stick after they kick our feet out from under us. One manufacturer does not an industry make. Trying to pass off as collectibles items made with 50 plus year old tooling is just plain stupid. Mantua was faced with a choice and made a really bad one. It happens.

As opposed to Mantua, there's Walthers, which started out at roughly the same time and not only is still in business, but is probably the largest single manufacturer in the business in the US as well as the largest distributor. Well..... maybe calling Walthers a manufacturer is stretching it, since I believe all that stuff is "outsourced". Nonetheless, Walthers is a resounding success. Walthers understands the business.

As I said before, model railroad manufacturers are subject to the same economic forces as anyone else and since it's a small business with a small and highly segmented market, it's more vulnerable than most. Let's face it, we don't NEED this stuff, we WANT it and when push comes to shove we can do without it. Try doing without food, clothing and shelter.

If you don't want to pay the price, don't buy it. Just quit complaining about it. Or, you could try one of those futile one day boycotts like people have tried to use against the oil companies. "Hey everybody, on the Xth of Y, let's all not buy gasoline and see how they like it.". Yeah, right. I hate to tell you this, guys, but 6 days out of 7, I don't buy gasoline, so 6 days out of 7 am I boycotting gasoline? Or that inane "Buy Nothing Day" (the day after Thanksgiving when the Christmas buying season "officially" starts). Oh yeah, that's effective. I don't go near any store the day after Thanksgiving. It's not because I support "Buy Nothing Day", but because I'd rather have a root canal or run with the bulls at Pamplona than face the maddened hordes at the mall.

And just as an aside, I find the dire predictions of the hobby's imminent demise intensely amusing. There's more stuff available in greater variety than at any time in the hobby's history. Virtually every diesel model ever made has been done (sometimes multiple times) by various manufacturers. The explosion in the number of well detailed, smooth running (and often sound equipped) steam locomotives since Bachmann introduced the Spectrum 2-8-0 in 1998 is just phenomenal. You don't expand into a shrinking market. Not if you want to stay in business anyway. You don't make more buggy whips in a bigger variety in a society rapidly converting to the automobile. Nor do you invest considerable sums into a start up venture like Broadway Limited to sell hobby products into a dying hobby.

The problem with hobby is not price. It's the fact that so much is available, people actually have to think about what they're going to buy next and allocate their expenditures accordingly. That hasn't always been the case.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. THIS IS THE GOLDEN AGE of the model railroad hobby. Enjoy it while it lasts.

Andre
It's really kind of hard to support your local hobby shop when the nearest hobby shop that's worth the name is a 150 mile roundtrip.
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Posted by whitman500 on Wednesday, December 21, 2005 5:13 PM
I think the manufacturers are caught between two opposing forces. On the one hand, there is a large number of baby boomer hobbyists that are in their peak earning years and so it makes perfect sense for the manufacturers to focus their efforts on selling expensive, high-end products liek sound-equipped locos, pre-weathered buildings, etc. The problem, however, is that catering to this market simultaneously limits the growth of the hobby since new, younger hobbyists don't have the money to buy these products. For the manufacturers the issue is that doing the right thing in the near-term could prove to be disastrous in the long-term since the big spending baby boomers will eventually grow old and pass on and there aren't enough new, younger hobbyists to replace them.

I'm not trying to argue that the manufacturers are being irrational since on an NPV basis it may make sense to maximize profits for the next several years even if the result is long-term decline but for the hobby it is not a good thing in the long-term.
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Posted by andrechapelon on Wednesday, December 21, 2005 9:32 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by whitman500

I think the manufacturers are caught between two opposing forces. On the one hand, there is a large number of baby boomer hobbyists that are in their peak earning years and so it makes perfect sense for the manufacturers to focus their efforts on selling expensive, high-end products liek sound-equipped locos, pre-weathered buildings, etc. The problem, however, is that catering to this market simultaneously limits the growth of the hobby since new, younger hobbyists don't have the money to buy these products. For the manufacturers the issue is that doing the right thing in the near-term could prove to be disastrous in the long-term since the big spending baby boomers will eventually grow old and pass on and there aren't enough new, younger hobbyists to replace them.

I'm not trying to argue that the manufacturers are being irrational since on an NPV basis it may make sense to maximize profits for the next several years even if the result is long-term decline but for the hobby it is not a good thing in the long-term.


You're forgetting one thing. Us supposedly well heeled old codgers were once young puppies without a container in which to pass water. The hobby was just as expensive then as it is now relative to the overall cost of living and wage rates. Things weren't any better then. 35 cent a gallon gas in 1965 is roughly the equivalent of what gas sells for locally here in Monterey (about $2.21/gal at the cheapest places).There were people then at the peak of their earning years who could afford brass, just as there are people now who can afford the latest that BLI has to offer. Guess how many nice brass engines were offered as compared to new offerings of moderately priced plastic or cast metal engines.

People get into this hobby because they're interested in trains. Nobody (and certainly not a kid) does a cost/benefit analysis comparing the relative merits of one hobby over another. If kids aren't interested in trains these days, the hobby is going to die. Period. Lower prices won't save it, nor will they bring in additional model railroaders. The Baby Boomers who now appear to be the financial backbone of the hobby were once on the poorer end of the economic spectrum and couldn't afford the higher end goodies the hobby offered at that time. When my late father was young, he was dirt poor. When he was the age I am now, he was much better off. That's the way it works for most people. You don't get to start off in the upper income brackets.

Andre
It's really kind of hard to support your local hobby shop when the nearest hobby shop that's worth the name is a 150 mile roundtrip.
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Posted by Anonymous on Wednesday, December 21, 2005 10:38 PM
as a 40+ year buyer of H-O, I personally know the sting of the hundred dollar plastic diesel that was $20.00 a few years back...My suggestion to new comers is to buy one piece at a time and hang on to it with dear life.
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Posted by edkowal on Wednesday, December 21, 2005 11:17 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by whitman500

I think the problem is not so much that hobby companies are gouging customers or making huge profits but rather that people's expectations about what their layout should look like has increased in recent years. With sound, DCC, photo realistic backdrops, etc., you can really make a top quality layout that looks like the real thing. Certainly that is the case with the layouts that are featured in MR. However, these layouts cost real money: tens of thousands of dollars. In the past, a rich man's layout probably didn't look a lot better than a poor man's but that gap has really widened, and I think that discourages newbies who see the layouts in the magazine and get excited and then realize to their dismay the vast financial resources that are required to meet their expectations.


It is not necessary to spend tens of thousands of dollars to have a top quality layout that looks like the real thing. If, however, you are unwilling to learn how to make it look realistic yourself, or you want to have it NOW, and therefore must pay someone else to do that, then yes, you will pay a lot.

As just one example, take structure models. The recent revolution in laser cut and resin cast kits has made it possible to produce a beautiful structure relatively easily. But you have to pay the producer of the kit for the efforts that have gone into producing such an excellent model. But whether or not these two technologies existed, it was always possible to do such work. It just couldn't be done in a week of evenings until recently. If you don't believe me, look at some of the work that is on exhibit at the Pendon Museum in England pendonmuseum.com/index.jsp Some of the models in those exhibits were made in the 1930's and they have not been spruced up or made any better than they were when first completed. They have all been made of paper and cardboard in 1/76 scale by volunteers. They are still made in that same way. Those models were not completed in a week of evenings, though.

Similarly, the masters for a cast resin kit are produced by an individual using traditional materials and traditional techniques. The masters for resin model railroad kits are unlikely to be made by rapid prototyping and CAD/CAM. And here, too, the masters are not the result of a quick week at the workbench. Anyone with reasonable hand-eye coordination and a discerning eye can do excellent work. It takes practice, and it takes time to devote to each model.

When looking at the efforts of most of the modelers depicted in those articles in the magazines, with few exceptions, I think you will find that they took many years to get to the size and level of detail that you see.

QUOTE: Originally posted by whitman500

Separately, a number of people have mentioned how the startup costs for the hobby are daunting and this drives people away. One factor that may be contributing to this is the cost of tools. You see fewer and fewer people with home workshops these days and so while in the past a new hobbyist probably had a power drill, a couple of power saws, a soldering iron, etc., today many do not. I came into the hobby a year ago with nothing and had to spend probably $500-600 just to get equipped with the tools I needed to build benchwork.


Power tools are conveniences, not necessities. You can get a lot of good work done with files, razor saws, hand saws and screwdrivers while you are saving your money to buy those power tools. But you may take more time to get things done. Again, if you find it important to get it built in a hurry, then it's gonna cost ya.

-Ed

Five out of four people have trouble with fractions. -Anonymous
Three may keep a secret, if two of them are dead. -Benjamin Franklin
"You don't have to be Jeeves to love butlers, but it helps." (Followers of Levi's Real Jewish Rye will get this one) -Ed K
 "A potted watch never boils." -Ed Kowal
If it's not fun, why do it ? -Ben & Jerry

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Posted by rolleiman on Wednesday, December 21, 2005 11:38 PM
QUOTE: Pendon Museum in England


SHARP!! [tup] Just goes to show what can be done if willing to spend the time at it..

Jeff
Modeling the Wabash from Detroit to Montpelier Jeff
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Posted by CNJ831 on Thursday, December 22, 2005 8:13 AM
QUOTE: Originally posted by andrechapelon

People get into this hobby because they're interested in trains. Nobody (and certainly not a kid) does a cost/benefit analysis comparing the relative merits of one hobby over another. If kids aren't interested in trains these days, the hobby is going to die. Period. Lower prices won't save it, nor will they bring in additional model railroaders. The Baby Boomers who now appear to be the financial backbone of the hobby were once on the poorer end of the economic spectrum and couldn't afford the higher end goodies the hobby offered at that time. When my late father was young, he was dirt poor. When he was the age I am now, he was much better off. That's the way it works for most people. You don't get to start off in the upper income brackets.


Andre, you are absolutely correct in that the Boomers are the financial backbone, and a certain percentage are the driving force, in the hobby today. However, you fail to fully understand the motivation that got them here in the first place and the fact that current circumstances are not likely to supply their replacement in the future. Hobbyists are drawn to model railroading through exposure. The majority of Boomers saw real trains in their daily lives and, more importantly, model trains were fully the equivalent of (or more desirable than) computers and celphones for today's younger generation. They were once THE toy to have and I can't remember any friends I had back then who were without them.

That exposure is lacking post 1965, which is partly why we see progressively fewer and fewer younger people in the hobby today...just look at the hobby's demographics. Nevertheless, there is still a small percentage of folks who are coming to the hobby today. Unfortunately, they are running up against huge prices...well in excess of what it cost to enter model railroading years ago (don't go by memory, go back and look at the ad prices in old MRs compared with today...I have). As I noted earlier, I've personally witnessed exchanges with newbies at the hobby shop and their reactions on hearing how much it takes to get started.

Time, of course, is the other major constraint. It, alone, is enough to keep people from considering the hobby but it's severely compounded by today's high pricing. So, whether you put the ultimate blame "us" or the "manufacturers", the result is the same: any future the hobby has is being stifled by the current prices. You suggest that most of us started out on a lower financial rung of the ladder but today can afford these expensive items. To this I reply, if the younger, less afluent folks can't ever get into the hobby, what they make in their peak earning years in the way of affording trains will be totally irrelevant.

CNJ831
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Posted by Anonymous on Thursday, December 22, 2005 8:26 AM
walking thru the local LHS.......

Why does this n scale loco cost so much?..........because it is small.......um, ok.
Why does this O scale loco cost so much?.........because it is big............um, ok.

Why does this hobby cost so much?.............because we want it and will buy it.
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Posted by whitman500 on Thursday, December 22, 2005 8:39 AM
QUOTE: You're forgetting one thing. Us supposedly well heeled old codgers were once young puppies without a container in which to pass water. The hobby was just as expensive then as it is now relative to the overall cost of living and wage rates. Things weren't any better then. 35 cent a gallon gas in 1965 is roughly the equivalent of what gas sells for locally here in Monterey (about $2.21/gal at the cheapest places).There were people then at the peak of their earning years who could afford brass, just as there are people now who can afford the latest that BLI has to offer. Guess how many nice brass engines were offered as compared to new offerings of moderately priced plastic or cast metal engines.


If you actually look at the demographic data, this isn't really correct. In 1965 the poorest segment of the US population was retired people. Today they are the richest. While things have decidedly moved in their favor, the situation is the reverse for young people. Over the last 40 years, we've seen the creation of Medicare and vast increases in the generosity of Social Security which has materially improved the standard of living of retired people and people near retirement (who no longer have to save as much money as previously). On the otherhand, young people have to deal with higher education costs (which have grown much faster than inflation), higher health insurance costs (which have also grown much faster than inflation and which there is no Medicare-equivalent subsidy for), much higher Social Security payroll taxes, and much less generous pension plans from employers (requiring people to save more). I guarantee you that in terms of disposable income the gap between people in their 20s and 30s and people in their 50s and 60s has widened considerably over the last few decades.

While this may be something of a tangent, I do think this trend makes it more difficult for manufacturers to simultaneously appeal to new, younger hobbyists and baby boomers and exacerbates the tension between planning for the future and maximizing current profits.
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Posted by whitman500 on Thursday, December 22, 2005 8:47 AM
QUOTE: Power tools are conveniences, not necessities. You can get a lot of good work done with files, razor saws, hand saws and screwdrivers while you are saving your money to buy those power tools. But you may take more time to get things done. Again, if you find it important to get it built in a hurry, then it's gonna cost ya.


Ed,

My point here was that the increasing lack of home workshops is making it more difficult for people to enter the hobby. This is still true even if they try to go the hand tool route to save money. The advantage of power tools is not simply that they are faster but also that they are easier to use. I bought a band saw because having never done this before, I'm not very good with a hand saw (my arm is weak and I can't cut straight). Others can lecture me that I should stop complaining and learn how, but this is precisely how newbies get discouraged.

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