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Has anyone else's Local Hobby Shop gone out of business lately?

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Posted by Anonymous on Wednesday, June 22, 2005 4:23 PM
Slim,

If you ever decide to consider opening a hobby shop, open up a speadsheet on your computer and do a simple financial analysis. This will require a few telephone calls to gather some meaningful information. Anyone can do this to satisfy their curiosity.

I have spent some time looking over the shoulder of a close friend that owns an LHS. Here's what I have learned.

The rental cost of retail floor space varies from $1.00 to $2.00 per square foot per month. A 1,500 square foot store could cost you as much as $3,000 per month for rent alone. The better the location, the higher the rent. You will probably have to sign a "no out" contract for 3 years to 7 years for better locations.

You can't have a storefront without insurance. You need to have at least $1,000,000 in liability coverage as well as coverage for fire, theft, and damage to glass and store contents. Your deductible would very likely be about $500.00 per incident. So for every break-in or incident of vandalism, the first $500.00 comes out of your pocket. Plan on one break-in or act of vandalism every 12 months. Your monthly cost for insurance will probably be about between $125 to $300 depending on the neighborhood and your insurance company.

Utility costs really aren't too bad. For a 1,500 square foot store, your power bill will be about $100/mo and your heating bill (or air conditioning) will be about $50/mo. Garbage will cost about $25/mo. Water will also cost about $25/mo. Don't forget, each of the utility companys are going to want a deposit before they will start your service. Deposits are usually about $300 each.

Communications costs (telephone, fax, and internet) will likely be about $125/mo. A DSL connection is really useful when you have to put orders together over the internet. Walther, Great Planes, Horizon, and others all use internet based ordering systems.

If you plan to protect your store with an monitored alarm system you will be paying a monthly fee, probably about $20/mo.

Advertising is a must for any small business. A small dealer directory advertisement in Model Railroader runs about $50/mo One small ad in your local newspaper will run you anywhere from $100 to $300. This is for one issue! Forget about radio or television, you would not believe how expensive they can be.

You may need to plan on becoming an unpaid sales tax collector for your state. You get to do the record keeping for them and send them a check evey month or so. The penalties are pretty stiff if you fall behind or fail to keep accurate records. Be wary, the state will not hesitate to put a padlock on your doors.

You may be audited from time to time by either the state internal revenue department or the state department of labor and industries (if you have employees).

You will need to establish a business checking account. You can expect to pay anywhere from $10.00 to $30.00 per month. Business check printing is not free. An inital book of business checks (with carbons) will run you about $140.

Lots of folks like to pay for their goods with credit cards. If you want to accept crddit cards, then you will have to get an account with a credit card service provider and hook them up with your business checking account. You can expect to pay 2% to 4% of the value of the transaction plus about 25 cents per transaction to the credit card service company. American Express is the most expensive at about 4%. For planning purposes, consider that 50% of your monthly sales will be made by credit card. You may think twice about accepting a credit card for a $2 pack of rail joiners.

Bad checks are a problem for most retailers. Model railroaders are a pretty good bunch of folks, but a stinker slips in every once in a while. You need to estimate your monthly losses from bad checks. For planning purposes, allow about $20/month for bad check losses.

Theft or shoplifting is a problem for everyone. My friend has carefully laid out his shop and used lots of glass cases for hot theft items. N scale items need tio have extra protection since expensive items will fit easily in a shirt pocket. A lot of guys are using 2% of the retail values of their inventories as your annual inventory shrinkage. For example, if you have $150,000 of inventory, then your annual inventory shrinkage would be about $3,000. Divide that number by 12 to get you monthly losses. It is really hard to account for missing items because they are gone and you can't count them.

Damaged items will come out of your pocket. You will need to estimate your monthly losses resulting from damage in the same fashion as losses from theft. Sometimes you can discount the item and sell it "as is", other times you have to throw it away.

Anyone planning on opening any retail business has to pony up some cash up front. My friend networks a lot with other hobby shop owners. He estimates that a well stocked store will require an initial inventory (at cost) of about $200,000, plus or minus $50,000.
High value locomotives, cfaftman building kits, air brushes, compressors, Dremel tools, tons of small detail parts, racks full of paints, tools, screws and the like. A single empty paint rack costs about $200.00 Three paint racks full of paint will cost about $8,000.

Signage can vary from $500 to $5,000. How much you spend sort of depends on how badly you want to be noticed. A simple lit box sign measuring about 8' long x 2' high x 1' deep will be about $3,000 from most commercial sign makers. My friend cut letters out of 2" insulation foam board, painted it, and used Liquid Nails to glue it to the front of his store. It is important to note that some mall landlords may insist on specific signage that may cost more than $3,000

Fixtures run the gamut from $5,000 to $25,000. A 6' long glass counter display case will cost about $1,000 to $1,500. A 1,500 square foot store will probably require 5 cases at a minumum of $5,000. Shelving units made of steel with steel shelves and wooden pegboard panels can cost as much as $300 or more per 4' wide unit. You can make wooden shelving units yourself, but you will discover that wood isn't cheap either.

Most retail stores have one or two computers, one for a cash register and one for preparing and transmitting orders to suppliers. Most hobby stores have web sites and have email addresses. Plan on spending at leat $1,000 for computers (w/printers, etc.) and another $500 for software.

A credit card terminal and credit card printer will probably cost about $400 to $500 if you can buy it, or about $25.00 per month if you lease it. Credit card service companies will be happy to lease you a terminal.

When you rent a store space you end up with everything the last renter left behind, so you get to pay for cleanup, fix up and paint up costs. Here is where having a large family and lots of friends helps out a lot.

There are a lot of miscelaneous items to purchase before you can open the doors to your store. Usually cities will not issue a business license until the fire department inspects and approves of your store. Better buy a good fire extinguisher. Business licenses must be renewed each year, so you fire extinguisher will have to be tested/inspected once a year. Costs about $10 to $20 for certification.

In order to figure out how much money your $200,000 investment will make, you have to get some idea of how much you are going to have to sell. This is a little tricky, because your potential competitors may not be very interested in helping. You may want to find comparable communities and talk to the store owner to get and estimate of his monthly sales.

Another approach would be to work backwards by using our costs to calculate what your sales must be in order to be profitable. Most folks use, as a "rule of thumb", 65% as an average cost of goods. In other words you pay $65 to your suppliers for every $100 you sell to a customer. Most hobbiests think that for every $100 full retail they should pay only $65. You will be "overpriced" if you fail to meet their expectations. There has to be a compromise in there somewhere for any hobby shop to make a profit. Remember, the $35 out of $100 in sales represents "gross" profits before we pay for all of the expenses we listed above.

If we estimated gross sales to be $20,000 per month then we are left with $7,000 per month to pay for all of our expenses. You can play with the spreadsheet numbers to see just how much you have to sell in order to realize a profit. (Don't forget, if you borrow any money you have to add in the monthly payments in order to determine how much cash you will have left at the end of the month.)

Anyone that wants a reality check can use the information above, make adjustments for their particular situation, and see just what it will take to start up a profitable retail business. I was surprised to see what all was involved. Everytime I suggest to my friend that maybe he should consider lowering his prices, his face gets red.

If you don't understand how to do all of this number crunching, then you already have a handicap to overcome. It's all part of doing your homework before you put your savings at risk.
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Posted by Anonymous on Thursday, June 23, 2005 10:35 AM
CapnAmerica:

I run a third-generation manufacturing business with my brother. I can appreciate what you're saying. Add to that everything associated with keeping seventy employees happy, including Uncle Sam, and I'll gladly go the LHS route. . . .

However, my cardinal rule is not to make my hobby my business. It may work for some folk but not for this guy.

So - perhaps I mispoke when I said that I wouldn't mind running a LHS. I ran (not owned) a camera/card/hobby shop back in the late seventies. Perhaps I spoke out of nostalgia but there are days that I sure wish I was back at the old camera/hobby shop.

BTW, the Camera and Card shops ( there were about a half dozen of them in and around the Pittsburgh, PA area) gradually closed in the eighties. Fortunately for me I moved on before they closed their doors. Hallmark went the route of setting up their own stores. We never handled anything in the Nikon line but sold some mainstream Canon, Minolta, Mamiya cameras. We're talking the kind of stuff you see in today's X-mart store - maybe a little higher/mid range.

I started out as a "hobby boy". We sold the usual wood and plastic kits, slot cars, train sets, and rockets - stuff that was popular at that time. The highest end train stuff that we carried would be the AHM/Rivarossi locos.

My dad took me to the C&C shops back in the sixties. Our first layout was built with stuff from those stores. He also took me to *THE* LHS that had all the nifty brass and anything-else-you-could-imagine stuff. I'm happy to say that I take my son there now and the owner that waited on us when I was little is still there to wait on us today.

The store has grown through the years but has probably passed it's peak. I don't know if the son has quite the wherewithall that the old man has to keep it going. Nothing against his son really - it's just that the climate has gotten a whole lot different.

Cheers,

-slim
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Posted by Anonymous on Thursday, June 23, 2005 11:35 AM
using the number of hobby shops as a yardstick of the hobby's health is not a reliable method. I lament the slow death of LHS, but much of this trade has merely shifted.....the loss of the shops and the death of the hobby may be intertwined, but not not necessarily in a proportional way. I do see a decline coming, because of the factors many have mentioned.........I just feel it will be much slower than some of us seem to fear. Also the hobby is changing..less scratchbuiding more ready to run...........there will still be awesome scratchbuilt models by master builders, but easy access to decent models expands the hobby base.
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Posted by FCnota on Thursday, June 23, 2005 3:19 PM
While I hate to see anyone go out of business, in order to stay in the game you have to sometimes change your plan. Like it or not, the Internet is here (otherwise we wouldn't be in this forum right now!)and will only improve. The LHS might be forced to accept this "new" demon. Yes, I shop around on the internet to look for bargins. I also visit the LHS and buy theirs as well. Sometimes I find what I want on the internet from my LHS! After working a full day and then some, spending time with the family (like dinner), the LHS is long closed. The internet is always open. Everyone has to change or you'll be passed by. BY ALL MEANS, SUPPORT YOUR LHS as much as you can, but get the most for your dollar also. Just my opinion.
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Posted by on30francisco on Thursday, June 23, 2005 6:24 PM
Three hobby shops have closed in my area within the last five years. We currently have two hobby shops in San Francisco. One deals mostly with old Lionel and the other deals with trains and other hobbies. Both places sell at MSRP. I buy most of my supplies on-line or at arts & craft stores such as Pearl or Michaels. While I agree that hobby shops have to make a profit, I believe many of them are very overpriced. I needed some small wood screws to attach Kadee couplers to a piece of rolling stock. The LHS wanted almost $3 for a pack of Walthers screws. I then went to Pearl and the same pack of screws (not Walthers brand) were only 89 cents! The LHSs price was a 200% mark-up. These LHSs are also cliquish and seem aloof to customers who are not part of the clique (big spenders or big B.S.ers). When I buy supplies on-line or by phone the dealers treat me as if I'm the only customer they have. I have had more conversations about modeling and other related topics with the clerks and customers at Pearl and Michaels, as opposed to the people in the LHSs. There is a very good hobby shop I patronize in Santa Clara called The Train Shop. It is dedicated to model railroading, has a friendly and knowledgable staff, and sells from 10% to 20% below MSRP.
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Posted by Anonymous on Friday, June 24, 2005 11:58 AM
On30francisco,

You don't really the notion of markup. Markup is based on the price the LHS paind for the product. This guy probably paid $1.75 for the $3.00 pack of screws. If you check the Walthers catalog for MSRP, that's probably what the LHS guy was charging. The last pack of Walthers branded wood screws I purchased was $2.98. I can afford one pack of screws for #2.98 and it is more trouble and cost to jump in the car a find a craft shop selling less expensive screws. With the price of gas approaching $2.50 a gallon you might not want to drive too far to save a buck.

It may be a good idea to buy the lower cost screws, but don't puni***he dealer unjustly for selling a higher priced branded item. That's like telling everyone that Levi's are overpriced because you can buy cheap bluejeans at WalMart.
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Posted by MisterBeasley on Friday, June 24, 2005 5:07 PM
It's not just the LHS's that are the "wrong" place to buy things like screws. I went to our local True Value Hardware (a good, well-stocked True Value) and found 2-56 screws for something like 30 cents each, and they had maybe a dozen of them. I found them online at 3 bucks for a hundred. And yes, I am using them for Kadee couplers.

My LHS has adapted well to the times. They have a web presence, but they are also well-stocked, and give discounts to the "regulars." (I became a regular, I guess, when I made my first purchase and saw 10 percent go off the price.) The owner is extremely knowledgable, and also does custom painting and DCC installations. He also has a small layout in the shop, and when I walk in and accuse him of "playing with trains," he replies that he's just testing an engine he's customized. I think I'm lucky to have a shop like this one (Maine Trains in Chelmsford, MA) within a few miles, so I don't mind spending most of my RR dollars there.

It takes an iron man to play with a toy iron horse. 

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Posted by slotracer on Friday, June 24, 2005 5:20 PM
Hey, it's Friday afternoon, anyone recall hobby shops operated out of the propietors basement ? There's a blast from the past!

I will toss two out on the table.....Blasdell Hobbies in Blasdell NY south of Buffalo. Old man that operated it retired and the son inherited it....he was a goofball to say the least. Moved it to a store front on South Park Ave early eighties and lasted a couple years.

Her's an oldie......A forgotten Buffalo NY landmark SPOONLEY THE TRAINMAN !

Operated out of a basement on Choate ave near mercy hospital, closed sometime late sixties. I recall going there as a wee lad early sixties and going down the basement stairs to the shop, wall so flionel trains and tin signs.
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Posted by michaelstevens on Thursday, January 17, 2008 3:53 PM

We've recently lost two more in the Philadelphia area.

1/  M and G Hobbies on Rte 130 in Delran NJ  --  the stock appears to still be inside  --  but no-one seems to have seen or heard of George Ellenbark since October '07. I am affected by the fact that my 00 gauge County class 4-6-0 was (or probably still is) in there, to be repaired.

2/  Jenkintown Hobbies on Greenwood Ave.  --  the place has been cleaned out  --  apparently they have gone out of business.

Neither of them ever seemed to be very busy, so I guess that I shouldn't be too surprised. Just sad. Sad [:(]

British Mike in Philly
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Posted by Driline on Thursday, January 17, 2008 4:12 PM

I give my LHS that just changed owners and went to FULL MSRP last month a year if he's lucky. I can only hope he'll close sooner. The sooner the better.

 I'm now frequenting my other LHS thats only 20 minutes away and generously has been giving discounts of 20% to 30% for the last 15 years. Their new building they just built is very nice and well stocked. Kudo's to smart business people. I spoke with them just the other day and they said that many of the other owners  people have been treated with disrespect and are now flocking to his shop.

Modeling the Davenport Rock Island & Northwestern 1995 in HO
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Posted by vsmith on Thursday, January 17, 2008 5:16 PM

Well the large scale community here is in shock, we are losing one of the most popular shops (brick and moter AND online) as the owner has decided to retire.

SAN-VAL Discounters is revered in the LS circles, for great prices and selections, he decided about 2 weeks ago to post the notice, and he immediatly began selling stock at cost +10%, so while losing the store will certainly be painful, I really can't complain as I, among many, participated at the communal buffet lline feedtrough, and bought up all those things I thought I could really use, now or in the future, so at least I didnt find out by driving up to the place and finding a flower shop in its place!

PS he'll be open till he sells off everything, including the shelves.

   Have fun with your trains

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Posted by tradupj on Thursday, January 17, 2008 5:50 PM

I'm fortunate to have a very good store, Becker's Model RR Supply close to home. I try and buy as much as possible there if I can, but the internet is very tempting. Hopefully, in a small way I am helping to keep the local LHS alive.

Joel

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Posted by Carbarn O on Thursday, January 17, 2008 8:06 PM

I live near Lakeland Florida and just lost Alfa Hobbies my source for glue, paint, screws-nuts-washers, wood, plastic , and other good stuff. Now I must go to Orlando or Pinelas Park.

Even worse, I am an O Scaler-2 rail-that is. I much prefer to look, touch, and feel models which I cannot do by mail order or on line. The same goes for browsing for parts. As an O Scaler I must do most of my shopping at meets and shows featuring O Scale. It's a long ride from central Florida to the best shows. The same goes for my traction interests.

The Maine modelers have Norm's . I go to that area when my lobster tank needs filling. I also get to run a trolley at Kennebunk.

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Posted by BlueHillsCPR on Thursday, January 17, 2008 8:14 PM

Not to minimize the distress of others over the loss of "an old friend", (the LHS).  But frankly I would love to see the LHS's near me go out of business.  They are nothing but a bunch of...Pirate [oX)]

Laugh [(-D]

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Posted by Great Western Rwy fan on Thursday, January 17, 2008 8:16 PM

Mountain Trains in Manchester New Hampshire and Modelers Junction in Salem Massachusetts both closed their doors in the fall. I still have a few good ones close to me tho.

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Posted by ngartshore350 on Thursday, January 17, 2008 9:09 PM

I have used the internet and the LHS and I noticed somethings in the LHS are more expensive than the internet while other items are very close if not better once you add postage & Handling to Australia. I have a look on the internet then go to the shop and compare, if the LHS is comparable I will support his business.

Nige.

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Posted by Conrail5 on Thursday, January 17, 2008 9:13 PM
 michaelstevens wrote:

We've recently lost two more in the Philadelphia area.

1/  M and G Hobbies on Rte 130 in Delran NJ  --  the stock appears to still be inside  --  but no-one seems to have seen or heard of George Ellenbark since October '07. I am affected by the fact that my 00 gauge County class 4-6-0 was (or probably still is) in there, to be repaired.

2/  Jenkintown Hobbies on Greenwood Ave.  --  the place has been cleaned out  --  apparently they have gone out of business.

Neither of them ever seemed to be very busy, so I guess that I shouldn't be too surprised. Just sad. Sad [:(]

 

Mike, Jenkintown was a huge loss to me. As a kid I bought many a balsawood windup airplanes from there. As an adult 90% of my train equipment came from there. Not to mention they were only 10 minutes from my house. Now I have to travel more than 45 minutes to Lansdale.

Empire under construction !

The early bird catches the worm.

But, the second mouse gets the cheese!

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Posted by mobilman44 on Thursday, January 17, 2008 9:17 PM

Hi,

  I've read all the previous postings and have to get in my 2 mils worth.........

While a lot of factors are involved in LHS's going out of business, I firmly believe that two primary factors are central to the situation. 

It is fairly obvious that young folks today are not inclined to "play with trains", as we who grew up in the '40s-early '60s were.  In the last umpteen years, I've lived/worked in Chicago, Louisville, Joliet (Ill), Dallas, and Houston, and the trend is pretty much the same.  The simple fact is, young folks are not clamoring to get into the hobby shops as they were years ago.  

The other factor - a giant elephant sitting in the middle of our train room that can't be ignored - is the fact that pretty much anything and everything related to our hobby is readily available on the internet. 

Mobilman44

 

ENJOY  !

 

Mobilman44

 

Living in southeast Texas, formerly modeling the "postwar" Santa Fe and Illinois Central 

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Posted by GTX765 on Friday, January 18, 2008 2:25 AM

mobilman smacked it right on the head..........

I am the only person i know in my age group (30) that likes trains. All my friends do not even have a hobby. Unless going to the bar is a hobby. The internet is where I do all my shopping. The LHS here in Omaha is way over priced even compared to EBay. So really I have no other options. I still go to hobby town and hobby lobby for sales but the dedicated LHS here is for the rich and ignorant who do not care what they pay as long as they have it now. So that is that. I would have a small store and large warehouse and sell on the internet and have limited hours for the store front.

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Posted by Phoebe Vet on Friday, January 18, 2008 7:23 AM

It is not unique to Hobby Stores.

Small independent stores are a dying breed.  Just as Circle K and 7-11 killed small neighborhood stores, so goes the entire retail market.  Independents cannot compete with the economy of scale.  I knew a woman who ran a store in a small community who used to drive to a larger community and buy products at a major chain store to mark up and sell in her store because she could buy it cheaper retail at that chain store than she could from her wholesale supplier in the quantities she needed.

A smart hobby shop would sell on the internet from his store, combining the two worlds.

Dave

Lackawanna Route of the Phoebe Snow

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Posted by Northeastrrfan on Friday, January 18, 2008 8:35 AM

Hello all,

We lost a great little hobby store in Collinsville, where they hold the N.E. Prototype Meet in late May or early June.  The owner retired (losing his eyesight), it was a great place and he had some good deals and very knowledgeable to the hobby.  When he closed he was selling everything at great low prices, I tried to buy as much as I could.  He gave me a bunch of decals sheets and detail parts. I even bought the layout he had in the store (me and a friend are redoing and adding to it). I wish more people were like him in the business. There is another LHS in Wethersfield (Tom's Trains) he sells online and has a small store, great prices and service, how a hobby store should be!

Just my two cents!

Frank

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Posted by Caso.Sub on Friday, January 18, 2008 8:47 AM

In my area in southern Ontario one of my fav. local shops is thinking about closing down.

Reasons 

1. depleting customer base

2. not enough local guys supporting him

And just to put something in perspective every year I buy a lot of model trains, some years as high 15k CAD, its all come from local hobby shops, unless the odd brass piece or rare kit. I support local businesss, because without we would not have the services through tax collection and job growth and support.

As pointed out earlier, the GM example. Why scream we are losing jobs, when your buying an import!!!

CASO

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Posted by my05hammer on Friday, January 18, 2008 11:26 AM

I have lived in Dixon, IL for the last 7 years and I just got back into the hobby after 20 years.  Our LHS was sold when the ol'man (Dave) wanted to retire.  So some kid took it over and bought out all of his stock.  The kid seemed more interested in selling Nextel than anything else and eventually went bust. 

The kid sold the shop back to Dave but lost the storefront.  So Dave is selling from the basement of the original shop where the 40X70 foot layout still exists, and is only open for a couple of hours 3 days a week. 

It is a bummer because he can't get back into selling Athearns, as Horrizon wants you to be able to support a certain amount of buisness per month as well as have a certain amount in stock at all times.  He can move the required buisness but doesn't have the resorces to purchase/hold the stock.  

I wish I had the cash to partner up with him (silent partner) and get a storefront by the new Walmart and get his hobby shop up and running again but I am just a working stiff with a wife, 4 kids, 2 mortgages, and a dog.  I am lucky enough to be able to get back into the hobby as it is.

Love all Worship One
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Posted by trainfan1221 on Friday, January 18, 2008 11:30 AM
Almost all of them around here, and others are cutting back on the model trains.   My biggest loss was a couple of months ago when Manhattan Trains went out, though there is a long established store across the road there.  I get tired of the lack of stores to buy my supplies, not everyone wants to order on the internet.
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Posted by Anonymous on Friday, January 18, 2008 2:30 PM

 CNJ831 wrote:
QUOTE: Originally posted by FiremanLA

ill get back to you but its not even arguable on "'published data"...tsk..tsk...the plethora of products is its own obvious answer........manufacturers follow the money.......more manufacturers+more products=a much bigger market......im surprised one would have to prove something so de facto evident.../...once again, more manufacturers+more products=biggermarket.......if the dollars werent there the manufacturers would be building widgets....as near as i can tell they are elbowing their way past each other to deliver new product.....


Fireman, I think you need to step back and look at the actual situation more honestly. Your statement that manufacturers are elbowing their way past each other to deliever new products and that this is an era of "bigmarket " (profits) for the hobby are well off the mark.

If you examine the current listing of manufacturers in the 2005 and past Walthers, you'll find that there hasn't been a new major player entering the hobby in more years than I care to count - hardly a sign of hobby prosperity. You statement that "manufacturers follow the money" is correct...and no important new ones are entering model railroading! In fact, even the secondstring companies haven't changed very much in the past decade (although a number of longtime examples have dropped out). It would appear that the actual view of things is that start-up costs are too great and the hobby's future far too iffy for anyone fre***o enter the marketplace in a big way today. Another sign of a lack of great prosperity in the hobby is that a number of the existing companies had to change their ways or face going out of business because the hobby's economic realities were in decline, not expansion. Look at Atlas and Life-Like. For years they were among the high volume suppliers of cheap department store trains. As that market vanished both changed to supplying serious modelers with small numbers of quality locomotives. Model Power was in the same boat but didn't alter direction enough (they did take a stab at it) and they now a very minor player in the hobby.

While it is true we are seeing more new products per year, almost all of these are done in ever diminishing limited production runs and when the item is gone in a couple of months, it's pretty much gone. In the past their profits allowed most companies to have large, stabile, product lines such that the hobbyist could purchase any item at any time. Today, at any given time there are probably LESS items in actual numbers available across the hobby then previously, not more. While prices have gone up, the number units available has gone down dramatically, so we are hardly looking at an era of the "bigmarket" in the hobby.

Relating this more to the thread's original subjectline, we all wi***he hobby was growing and expanding. Unfortunately, the dramatic, steady, decline of hobby shops tells quite a different story. Yes, the Internet has certainly cut deeply into their market but their decline reflects much more than that. I can not image that In the future many people will be introduced to our hobby strictly via the Internet. Hobby shops were always the means of exposing new people to model railroading and it kept our hobby thriving for many decades. I'm very much afraid that when the LHS finally vanishes completely, it will seal the hobby's fate as well.

CNJ831

 

Good assessment.

The decline and decay of this hobby/LHS also means that the value of trains will decline..fewer buyers with fewer dollars.

I suspect that we will see a serious decline in prices on collectibles in the future...who will want them?


TMT

  • Member since
    July 2006
  • From: Pocono Mts. of Pa
  • 196 posts
Posted by LNEFAN on Friday, January 18, 2008 3:05 PM
Last week I stopped by one of the few MR oriented hobby shops in the area. I found out that the owner and his wife will be retiring in June after a 31 yr. run. And there's no plans to sell the business-only the building in which it's housed. A real shame as this shop had/has a great supply of hard to find items and everything was displayed in an easy to find arrangement. I'll miss it a lot.
  • Member since
    January 2002
  • From: Portland, OR
  • 3,119 posts
Posted by jfugate on Friday, January 18, 2008 3:22 PM

Is the hobby moving away from the old hobby shop sales model -- absolutely!

Does that mean the hobby will die -- nope. All hobbies ebb and flow, and we've been in an ebb for a couple decades -- and now thanks to things like the internet and popular hollywood movies like Polar Express, the hobby growth is flat or slightly increasing at the moment.

Model railroading is rapidly becoming a historical modeling hobby. Model ship builders and model airplane builders all model mostly prototypes from history that people don't routinely encounter every day. Yes, it's true people still travel by ship -- and that air travel is common -- so even though the prototypes aren't the same, the basic mode is there to spark the initial interest in youngsters.

If you follow what's going on in the rail industry, then you know that high-speed rail transportation is poised to make a comback. It's going great guns in Japan and Europe, with the Chunnel train now booking 60% of all Britain to France passenger miles. Japan is interested in expanding their bullet train operation. The US has the Acela Express, with more high-speed rail projects on the drawing board.

If you roll the clock ahead 20 years, it could be the young in the US will again be familiar with rail transportation as riders, and like model airplanes are today -- will get interested in model trains. Once the interest is there, they will discover the fascinating area of historical railroad modeling. In model airplanes, there is a vibrant and enthusiastic following for WWII aircraft modeling. I see the steam-to-diesel era as remaining popular in model railroading well into the future.

Will every kid want a trainset for Christmas as was popular in the 50s and early 60s? No, but that's when the hobby was something of a popular fad. What's happened is the hobby moved back to its more natural home of enthusiasts rather than a general public fad in the 70s and 80s.

But thanks to things like the internet, the hobby won't die. You would have thought slot cars died after they were a public fad in the 1960s, but not so! The internet has given the slot car hobby a real shot in the arm and it's doing better than it's ever done since the fad died out in the 70s. 

Joe Fugate Modeling the 1980s SP Siskiyou Line in southern Oregon

  • Member since
    June 2007
  • From: Indiana
  • 3,549 posts
Posted by Flashwave on Friday, January 18, 2008 3:26 PM

There was a really good one up around Indy known as Metzler's. Nice guy, nice place. age caught up to him.

 

 

-Morgan

  • Member since
    December 2003
  • From: Ft. Wayne Indiana Home of the Lake Division
  • 574 posts
Posted by Ibflattop on Friday, January 18, 2008 4:52 PM
My shop in Ft.Wayne Indiana closed in October leaving us to travel to Kokomo Indiana to a super Train shop! One good thing in Indiana left.   Kevin 
Home of the NS Lake Division.....(but NKP and Wabash rule!!!!!!!! ) :-) NMRA # 103172 Ham callsign KC9QZW
  • Member since
    March 2001
  • From: Mishawaka, IN
  • 243 posts
Posted by jjbmish on Monday, January 21, 2008 8:57 AM
Which Hobby shop in Kokomo do you go to?

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