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[quote user="CNJ831"][quote]QUOTE: Originally posted by FiremanLA ill get back to you but its not even arguable on "'published data"...tsk..tsk...the plethora of products is its own obvious answer........manufacturers follow the money.......more manufacturers+more products=a much bigger market......im surprised one would have to prove something so de facto evident.../...once again, more manufacturers+more products=biggermarket.......if the dollars werent there the manufacturers would be building widgets....as near as i can tell they are elbowing their way past each other to deliver new product..... [/quote] Fireman, I think you need to step back and look at the actual situation more honestly. Your statement that manufacturers are elbowing their way past each other to deliever new products and that this is an era of "bigmarket " (profits) for the hobby are well off the mark. If you examine the current listing of manufacturers in the 2005 and past Walthers, you'll find that there hasn't been a new major player entering the hobby in more years than I care to count - hardly a sign of hobby prosperity. You statement that "manufacturers follow the money" is correct...and no important new ones are entering model railroading! In fact, even the secondstring companies haven't changed very much in the past decade (although a number of longtime examples have dropped out). It would appear that the actual view of things is that start-up costs are too great and the hobby's future far too iffy for anyone fre***o enter the marketplace in a big way today. Another sign of a lack of great prosperity in the hobby is that a number of the existing companies had to change their ways or face going out of business because the hobby's economic realities were in decline, not expansion. Look at Atlas and Life-Like. For years they were among the high volume suppliers of cheap department store trains. As that market vanished both changed to supplying serious modelers with small numbers of quality locomotives. Model Power was in the same boat but didn't alter direction enough (they did take a stab at it) and they now a very minor player in the hobby. While it is true we are seeing more new products per year, almost all of these are done in ever diminishing limited production runs and when the item is gone in a couple of months, it's pretty much gone. In the past their profits allowed most companies to have large, stabile, product lines such that the hobbyist could purchase any item at any time. Today, at any given time there are probably LESS items in actual numbers available across the hobby then previously, not more. While prices have gone up, the number units available has gone down dramatically, so we are hardly looking at an era of the "bigmarket" in the hobby. Relating this more to the thread's original subjectline, we all wi***he hobby was growing and expanding. Unfortunately, the dramatic, steady, decline of hobby shops tells quite a different story. Yes, the Internet has certainly cut deeply into their market but their decline reflects much more than that. I can not image that In the future many people will be introduced to our hobby strictly via the Internet. Hobby shops were always the means of exposing new people to model railroading and it kept our hobby thriving for many decades. I'm very much afraid that when the LHS finally vanishes completely, it will seal the hobby's fate as well. CNJ831 [/quote] Good assessment.The decline and decay of this hobby/LHS also means that the value of trains will decline..fewer buyers with fewer dollars.I suspect that we will see a serious decline in prices on collectibles in the future...who will want them? TMT
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