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Manufacturer Model Duplication Timing

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Posted by dknelson on Saturday, May 23, 2020 2:02 PM

You don't hear about this now, but back in the 1960s there was a problem with special interest groups with elaborate letter writing campaigns to the brass importers asking for this or that somewhat obscure steam locomotive, with the implication if not overt promise that a market of X number of modelers was waiting and ready to buy.  For fairly obvious reasons they'd send the same communications to various importers and from time to time more than one importer would snap at the bait and have the same locomotive (or other model) produced, only to learn that the promised "lead-pipe cinch" group of buyers was now split between multiple options.

Whether that explains some of the duplication we see from time to time I do not know.  But it's not surprising that competitors who serve the same markets sometimes make parallel decisions, because they are listening to the same "noises."  It happens in book publishing from time to time -- two parallel biograpies of the same person released at the same time, to the commercial detriment of both.  Sometimes it even happens with movies.

Dave Nelson

 

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Posted by csxns on Saturday, May 23, 2020 12:31 PM

Paul3
Because models can take years to get to market,

If Scale Trains made the DODX flats i have some by now.

Russell

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Posted by tstage on Saturday, May 23, 2020 11:19 AM

John-NYBW
Paul3


John-NYBW,
The one thing that's good about long waits is that it gives one time to save up.  In today's limited run world, if you wait until you see it you might miss it entirely.  Personally, I'd much rather have this kind of marketplace vs. one where I either miss things because it sold out before I knew about it, or where things don't get made in the first place because companies only make the most popular items for decades (like the old days).

For some reason I have never understood, we seem to be willing to accept things in this hobby that we would never accept with any other consumer product. Do you think Apple would still be in business if they had delivered the original MacIntosh computer 3 years after their original announced delivery date?

Apples Watermelons and oranges, John.  Personal computers (PC or Mac) and MRRing are two totally different markets.  The former is very large and ubiquitous, with a wide application field - even into MRRing; the latter is fairly niche with a much more limited market.

So, you just can't draw an anology between the two because they are so different from one another.

Tom

https://tstage9.wixsite.com/nyc-modeling

Time...It marches on...without ever turning around to see if anyone is even keeping in step.

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Posted by SeeYou190 on Saturday, May 23, 2020 10:56 AM

NittanyLion
Guns N' Roses Chinese Democracy was supposed to be released in 1999. It was released in late 2008.

Bat Out Of Hell 2 was just as ridiculous from announcement to eventual release.

-Kevin

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Posted by NittanyLion on Saturday, May 23, 2020 10:52 AM

John-NYBW

 

 
Paul3


John-NYBW,
The one thing that's good about long waits is that it gives one time to save up.  In today's limited run world, if you wait until you see it you might miss it entirely.  Personally, I'd much rather have this kind of marketplace vs. one where I either miss things because it sold out before I knew about it, or where things don't get made in the first place because companies only make the most popular items for decades (like the old days).

 

 

 

For some reason I have never understood, we seem to be willing to accept things in this hobby that we would never accept with any other consumer product. Do you think Apple would still be in business if they had delivered the original MacIntosh computer 3 years after their original announced delivery date?

 

It happens in the movies, music, video games, and other things that I'm not pulling off the top of my head. 

Guns N' Roses Chinese Democracy was supposed to be released in 1999. It was released in late 2008.

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Posted by John-NYBW on Saturday, May 23, 2020 10:39 AM

Paul3


John-NYBW,
The one thing that's good about long waits is that it gives one time to save up.  In today's limited run world, if you wait until you see it you might miss it entirely.  Personally, I'd much rather have this kind of marketplace vs. one where I either miss things because it sold out before I knew about it, or where things don't get made in the first place because companies only make the most popular items for decades (like the old days).

 

For some reason I have never understood, we seem to be willing to accept things in this hobby that we would never accept with any other consumer product. Do you think Apple would still be in business if they had delivered the original MacIntosh computer 3 years after their original announced delivery date?

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Posted by tstage on Saturday, May 23, 2020 10:33 AM

Given the popularity of the Pennsy, as well as help from the PRRT&HS, I think a streamlined PRR K4 will probably sell well.  And, depending on how many units Bachmann and BLI end up manufacturing, they probably can be had at discount IF you're willing to wait for the price to drop after it's been on the market awhile.

That seems to be the norm now in MRRing.  Pay full-price now, or...take a chance and purchase it at discount later when the sellers are trying to move them.

Tom

https://tstage9.wixsite.com/nyc-modeling

Time...It marches on...without ever turning around to see if anyone is even keeping in step.

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Posted by Paul3 on Saturday, May 23, 2020 10:30 AM

This is not a new problem.  In the early 1980's, Atlas, Stewart and MDC/Roundhouse all released RS-3's at the same time.

Today, with more product coming out than ever before, duplicate models are more likely.  Why?  Because models can take years to get to market, and all that time spent on research, design, and tooling will be wasted if a company cancels a product after they learn someone else is doing it.  And because profits in this hobby are not vast, companies are very reluctant to throw away R&D/tooling money.  They'll do it if the orders aren't there, but if there's a chance to make money, they will release the model.

In this particular case, they are chasing different markets.  BLI is high end, and Bachmann isn't.  Apparently, both feel they can sell enough to make a profit.

davidmurray,
Announcements are at least a year before delivery these days, and some times much longer.  Stuff happens, as they say, and delays due to factory problems, lack of pre-orders, tooling issues, and global economic problems can all cause huge headaches for everyone.

John-NYBW,
The one thing that's good about long waits is that it gives one time to save up.  In today's limited run world, if you wait until you see it you might miss it entirely.  Personally, I'd much rather have this kind of marketplace vs. one where I either miss things because it sold out before I knew about it, or where things don't get made in the first place because companies only make the most popular items for decades (like the old days).

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Posted by John-NYBW on Saturday, May 23, 2020 9:52 AM

davidmurray

 

 
FlyingScotaman
BLI have had the chassis for this for years and years so why now? Why not pick something more unique. Just pondering.

 

From management decision until product in stores is a fairly lengthy process.  Some times faster than others, but slow.   And no one announces upcoming produces until they are very close to a production run.

A unique item, probably is from obsurce prototype, which means a small potential market.

At least this is how it seems to me.

 

 

Unless things have changed in recent years, I don't think that is true that no one announces upcoming products unless they are close to a production run. I remember BLI announcing a delivery date within few months for their Dreyfus streamlined Hudson. I waited close to three years before it hit the market. Even then they might have been pushed by MTH announcing they were going to offer the same loco. I had a similar experience with Walthers original 130' turntable. As I recall, the delivery date kept getting pushed back for more than a year. 

I no longer take announced delivery dates seriously. I'll believe it when I see it. Until somebody actually has a product to sell, I'm not interested in what they are planning. It means nothing to me. 

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Posted by SeeYou190 on Saturday, May 23, 2020 9:14 AM

I don't think the K4 has a limited maket.

Ever since I was a little kid, it has been a Railfan culture thing to debate whether the SOUTHERN PS4 or the PENNSYLVANIA K4 was the best Pacific locomotive.

The K4 models always sell. It seems like an easy decision to make a model of one every few years.

-Kevin

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Posted by davidmurray on Saturday, May 23, 2020 9:11 AM

FlyingScotaman
BLI have had the chassis for this for years and years so why now? Why not pick something more unique. Just pondering.

From management decision until product in stores is a fairly lengthy process.  Some times faster than others, but slow.   And no one announces upcoming produces until they are very close to a production run.

A unique item, probably is from obsurce prototype, which means a small potential market.

At least this is how it seems to me.

 

David Murray from Oshawa, Ontario Canada
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Manufacturer Model Duplication Timing
Posted by FlyingScotaman on Saturday, May 23, 2020 8:40 AM

I would like to know why after decades of neglect 2 manufacturers will produce the same model within months of one another.

Example. The HO streamlined PRR K4. 1st Bachmann then BLI.

I can see why everyone will want to field a UP SD70 or a Big Boy, but the K4? Now that has to be a slim market and where there may be the Bachmann guys who just wont come up with the cash for a BLI and vice versa there will be those who buy BLI and wouldn't accept the Bachmann specimen there must be a fair sized mid ground who are slightly ambivalent and they are the first come first to buy folks who have been missed by the second offering.

BLI have had the chassis for this for years and years so why now?

Why not pick something more unique.

Just pondering.

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