SeeYou190Things are changing in Asia.
Not just Asia, but Africa as well. In the mid nineteen-eighties the G7 leaders realized that shoveling billions of dollars to third world countries year after year in food aid was not the way to go and decided that floating all boats was better for everyone. Here are the leaders that worked hard and got the ball rolling on the plan that would take a couple of generations to come to fruition. Who knows what was discussed at the last G7 summit, anyone?
Core G7 members (1988)Host state and leader are shown in bold text.MemberRepresented byTitle
CanadaBrian MulroneyPrime Minister
FranceFrançois MitterrandPresident
West GermanyHelmut KohlChancellor
ItalyCiriaco De MitaPrime Minister
JapanNoboru TakeshitaPrime Minister
United KingdomMargaret ThatcherPrime Minister
United StatesRonald ReaganPresident
European CommunityJacques DelorsCommission PresidentHelmut KohlCouncil President
Brent
"All of the world's problems are the result of the difference between how we think and how the world works."
York1His most common is changing "Made in China" to "Made in Vietnam".
.
We remodeled our youngest daughter's bedroom when she started high school, and I was amazed that all her new furniture was made in Vietnam.
During the kitchen remodel there were options we looked at that were made in Vietnam.
Some parts for engines are showing up that are made there also.
Things are changing in Asia.
-Kevin
Living the dream.
York1 My friend is a commercial graphic artist. He has been swamped with businesses that are changing labels. His most common is changing "Made in China" to "Made in Vietnam".
My friend is a commercial graphic artist. He has been swamped with businesses that are changing labels.
His most common is changing "Made in China" to "Made in Vietnam".
Yeah. I've read recently that companies that make other products have been moving out of China leaving some empty factories. I'd have to think if that trend continues, ...
Rio Grande. The Action Road - Focus 1977-1983
York1 John
ATLANTIC CENTRAL I have most of the expensive stuff I need or want......... Like Tom, I will evaluate costs when it is time to purchase something. Interesting sidebar, as originally written, the US Constitution only allowed the central goverment two forms of taxation, tariffs and duties - one in the same really, OR a direct apportioned tax, which works like this - there are one thousand citizens, the government has a budget that requires $10,000, each citizen pays $10. Sheldon
I have most of the expensive stuff I need or want.........
Like Tom, I will evaluate costs when it is time to purchase something.
Interesting sidebar, as originally written, the US Constitution only allowed the central goverment two forms of taxation, tariffs and duties - one in the same really, OR a direct apportioned tax, which works like this - there are one thousand citizens, the government has a budget that requires $10,000, each citizen pays $10.
Sheldon
Actually, if you look at Article 1, Section 2, Clause 3, you'll see that the apportionment applies to the states according to their population as defined below.
"Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers, which shall be determined by adding to the whole Number of free Persons, including those bound to Service for a Term of Years, and excluding Indians not taxed, three fifths of all other Persons."
In any event this was changed by the 16th Amendment.
In the long run tariffs mean that we pay more.
Like others have mentioned, I already have most of what I need which is fortunate since most of my S scale stuff was made in China.
Paul
MisterBeasley We have been lucky to have low train prices for a decade or more, as US manufacturers moved production to Asia. It's caught up to us.
We have been lucky to have low train prices for a decade or more, as US manufacturers moved production to Asia. It's caught up to us.
Manufacturing has moved around asia for quite some time, from Japan, to South Korea to China.
LOL, prices have been catching up to us for the past decade or more. Freight cars routinely go for $45 to 55+ or even pushing $100 (Genesis light equipped cabooses and IMRC auto racks), while salaries have stagnated and only recently have begun to creep up a bit.
It takes an iron man to play with a toy iron horse.
NittanyLion wjstix NittanyLion Apparently it was totally tariff related, in BLI's case: Today, August 13, 2019, the USTR (Office of the United States Trade Representative) announced that toys, including model trains, are on List 4B. This means that Broadway Limited Imports' products will not be tariffed on September 1, as originally announced. Since we will not be incurring immediate additional costs of import, products will revert to their original pricing. Items on list 4B are to be tariffed effective December 15, 2019, according to USTR. As this date draws closer, we will be in contact regarding any products that may incur the tariff at that time. My understanding is that a number of large retailers pressured the administration to at least postpone tariffs long enough that it wouldn't affect the 2019 Christmas buying season, which for many retailers is the difference between making a profit or not. Yeah, that's why you've got that 12/15 date in there. Anything arriving after that point, more or less, isn't going to be around at Christmas anyhow. When I worked retail (in the last decade), our Christmas stock started arriving in the first half of September. Given that the tariff impacts start on the 1st....
wjstix NittanyLion Apparently it was totally tariff related, in BLI's case: Today, August 13, 2019, the USTR (Office of the United States Trade Representative) announced that toys, including model trains, are on List 4B. This means that Broadway Limited Imports' products will not be tariffed on September 1, as originally announced. Since we will not be incurring immediate additional costs of import, products will revert to their original pricing. Items on list 4B are to be tariffed effective December 15, 2019, according to USTR. As this date draws closer, we will be in contact regarding any products that may incur the tariff at that time. My understanding is that a number of large retailers pressured the administration to at least postpone tariffs long enough that it wouldn't affect the 2019 Christmas buying season, which for many retailers is the difference between making a profit or not.
NittanyLion Apparently it was totally tariff related, in BLI's case: Today, August 13, 2019, the USTR (Office of the United States Trade Representative) announced that toys, including model trains, are on List 4B. This means that Broadway Limited Imports' products will not be tariffed on September 1, as originally announced. Since we will not be incurring immediate additional costs of import, products will revert to their original pricing. Items on list 4B are to be tariffed effective December 15, 2019, according to USTR. As this date draws closer, we will be in contact regarding any products that may incur the tariff at that time.
My understanding is that a number of large retailers pressured the administration to at least postpone tariffs long enough that it wouldn't affect the 2019 Christmas buying season, which for many retailers is the difference between making a profit or not.
Yeah, that's why you've got that 12/15 date in there. Anything arriving after that point, more or less, isn't going to be around at Christmas anyhow. When I worked retail (in the last decade), our Christmas stock started arriving in the first half of September. Given that the tariff impacts start on the 1st....
I think the whole message of this thread is to wait and see what actually happens. Things have a way of not having the impact the experts think they should, so I wouldn't be concerned about having to possibly spend 10% for trains a few months from now.
Besides, the model train industry began to bring us highly detailed high fidelity models back when they moved production to China decades ago, something we wouldn't have enjoyed if production didn't move.
I can't imagine what prices would be for the same models if production stayed domestic. In terms of labor expense, relocating production was tremendously deflationary for companies' labor costs, allowing them the money for R&D of new models and the application of details under the same MSRP.
Having to now pay an additional 10% seems long overdue, IMO. And it won't impact what I'll buy or the timing of when I buy.
- Douglas
I hope this doesn't lead to a repeat of the Atlas track shortage debacle.
NittanyLionApparently it was totally tariff related, in BLI's case: Today, August 13, 2019, the USTR (Office of the United States Trade Representative) announced that toys, including model trains, are on List 4B. This means that Broadway Limited Imports' products will not be tariffed on September 1, as originally announced. Since we will not be incurring immediate additional costs of import, products will revert to their original pricing. Items on list 4B are to be tariffed effective December 15, 2019, according to USTR. As this date draws closer, we will be in contact regarding any products that may incur the tariff at that time.
As the issue of tariffs is inextricably related to trade policy, admins will be closely monitoring this thread. Keep discussion to the effect tariffs will or might have on model railroading, and we're all good. Resist the urge to stray into discussion of government policy, or the thread may have to be locked. Thank you. - Mgmt.
--Steven Otte, Model Railroader senior associate editorsotte@kalmbach.com
Doughless SpringStreet In practice, importers might or might pass the currency savings along to retail customers. In the opening example, BLI could undo some of the pending price increase in light of the Chinese currency devaluation. Or it could keep the new, higher price based on the tariff (since customers have heard about that and expect an increase), and pocket the compensating savings due to the devaluation (since perhaps fewer people have heard of, or understand, that change).Time will tell.... Which is something that struck me when reading BL1s message. I don't know their situation, but part of me was wondering if they simply are not just choosing to increase prices to see what the market will bear in traditional fashion and it's not really totally tariff related.
SpringStreet In practice, importers might or might pass the currency savings along to retail customers. In the opening example, BLI could undo some of the pending price increase in light of the Chinese currency devaluation. Or it could keep the new, higher price based on the tariff (since customers have heard about that and expect an increase), and pocket the compensating savings due to the devaluation (since perhaps fewer people have heard of, or understand, that change).Time will tell....
Which is something that struck me when reading BL1s message. I don't know their situation, but part of me was wondering if they simply are not just choosing to increase prices to see what the market will bear in traditional fashion and it's not really totally tariff related.
Apparently it was totally tariff related, in BLI's case:
Doughless The devaluation of the yuan in response to US tariffs causes a lower inflation rate for the USA and the rest of the world. In China, their people experience a higher inflation rate. I think that's the effect.
The devaluation of the yuan in response to US tariffs causes a lower inflation rate for the USA and the rest of the world. In China, their people experience a higher inflation rate. I think that's the effect.
And, unless the Chinese economy is willing to charge less, it means Chinese earning X Renminbi per hour won't be able to purchase as much in their local economy. They'll need a wage increase, or prices reduced, or subsidies (AKA tariffs of their own, including on what the USA exports to them...)
Nobody wins.
I know this is anecdotal ...
My friend is a graphic artist with a contract with a large U.S. pharmacy. He is swamped with work changing labels from "Made in China" to "Made in Vietnam".
ATLANTIC CENTRALInteresting sidebar, as originally written, the US Constitution only allowed the central goverment two forms of taxation, tariffs and duties
And a year later came excise tax and the Whiskey Rebellion.
Huge companies hedge their currency exposure, sometimes correctly, sometimes not. I don't know if MR companies to that, nor how it's done. Passing price increase along, like fuel surcharges, is fairly common. Passing along price decreases...does it happen?
Brent I think? we are on the same page.
Henry
COB Potomac & Northern
Shenandoah Valley
wjstix Since China, although it has some free enterprise, is still primarily a "command economy" (i.e. the government controls who gets paid what etc.), inflation and recessions and such don't really affect their people that much. Remember BTW that China doesn't pay the tariffs, the US purchaser of the Chinese product does.
Since China, although it has some free enterprise, is still primarily a "command economy" (i.e. the government controls who gets paid what etc.), inflation and recessions and such don't really affect their people that much.
Remember BTW that China doesn't pay the tariffs, the US purchaser of the Chinese product does.
We just talked about that upstream. Yes, the mechanics of tariffs is that the consumer traditionally pays the additional tax that's leveed at the port when they buy the product off of the local shelf.
Except what's been happening in this case is that China wants to protect its industries so they are (commanding via currency devaluation) the producers charge 25% less than before in order for the leveed tariff to have no effect on the American consumer. So the consumer has not really been paying the tariff, the chinese producers have.
AFAIK, no American importer of chinese made trains has raised their prices over the past year until BL1 just announced it, and I have some skepticism that tariffs are the legit reason.
Maybe the first hit of 25% tariffs didn't apply to goods like model trains, but this next 10% does. But no matter, what the Chinese have been doing to offset other tariffs still might apply to trains.
Atlas posted an article pertaining to this topic on its Facebook . Among the comments in the article is it is uncertain if the 10% tariff will actually go into effect. Potential events might change it. Also, the date of September 1 is not clear. It might be the date shipped from China or the date arriving in the USA.
Also, some people here are commenting on China devaluing its currency . That is true, and it should offset the new tariff if it actually goes into effect.
GARRY
HEARTLAND DIVISION, CB&Q RR
EVERYWHERE LOST; WE HUSTLE OUR CABOOSE FOR YOU
ATLANTIC CENTRAL the US Constitution only allowed the central goverment two forms of taxation, tariffs and duties - one in the same really
the US Constitution only allowed the central goverment two forms of taxation, tariffs and duties - one in the same really
So central were tariffs to the early nation that they stood down the Continental Navy to save money, found out they needed a maritime service to enforce tariffs, and founded the precursor to the Coast Guard.
Four years later, figured out that whole no Navy thing was penny wise and pound foolish and bought a Navy too.
SeeYou190 I'll stick to buying used brass steam locomotives that are already in the USA. . I would have done that anyway. This effects nothing for me. . -Kevin .
I'll stick to buying used brass steam locomotives that are already in the USA.
I would have done that anyway. This effects nothing for me.
Kevin, I been buying used for years.. That's how my champagne tastes fits my beer wallet.
Larry
Conductor.
Summerset Ry.
"Stay Alert, Don't get hurt Safety First!"
BATMAN tstage I haven't purchased a BLI product "new" in 10-11 years and I don't expect that the change anytime soon. The tariff applies to all our toy train companies and their made in China products, not just BLI.
tstage I haven't purchased a BLI product "new" in 10-11 years and I don't expect that the change anytime soon.
The tariff applies to all our toy train companies and their made in China products, not just BLI.
Yea, I get that, Brent. It was primarily a comment on the length of time that I've purchased anything new from BLI. Should the time come when I do purchase something new from a manufacturer whose product is shipped from China, I'll evaluate whether the higher price is worth it to me or not.
Right now I have more than enough locomotives and rolling stock. So I don't expect to make very many additional purchases of either of those - unless it's something very specific to my prototype, or something I don't already have.
Tom
https://tstage9.wixsite.com/nyc-modeling
Time...It marches on...without ever turning around to see if anyone is even keeping in step.
BATMAN Which causes a lower inflation rate, which causes lower wages and on it goes. The U.S. tariffs will give the rest of the world a break on prices on all those products made in China until the yuan claws its way back up from its temporary dip.
Which causes a lower inflation rate, which causes lower wages and on it goes. The U.S. tariffs will give the rest of the world a break on prices on all those products made in China until the yuan claws its way back up from its temporary dip.
Riogrande5761, love your Father Ted reference.
SpringStreetAlso note that some other exporting countries have devalued their currencies to try to match the Chinese move.
How can the U.S., Canada, and other industrialized countries have enough workers to fill all these manufacturing jobs with such a low unemployment rate? These current labour shortages were predicted when I was a kid in the sixties as the boomers would leave the labour pool.
In the meantime maybe I will get a price break on the next two steamers Rapido is bringing out. Though I suspect the Yuan will have long since bounced back.
I think a lot of the MRR companies are doing cash flow analysis as we speak, it will be interesting to see if others follow suit.
Doughless I believe that the current way China is dealing with the tariffs is to lower the price of the product so that the American consumer is paying the same price they would if there was no tariff.... [snip].... I believe China devaluing its currency is the mechanical process by how they are eating the cost of the tariff.....
I believe that the current way China is dealing with the tariffs is to lower the price of the product so that the American consumer is paying the same price they would if there was no tariff.... [snip].... I believe China devaluing its currency is the mechanical process by how they are eating the cost of the tariff.....
Yes, China quickly devalued its currency after the USA imposed the new tariffs. In theory, if the devaluation exactly matches the tariff, the end purchaser sees no price change--the importer is paying the tariff, raising the cost of the Chinese made item, but the basic cost of the import has gone down because the importer's currency (US dollars, in this case) is worth more in transactions with Chinese businesses, i.e., 1 USD buys more Chinese currency (or stuff) than it previously did.
In practice, importers might or might pass the currency savings along to retail customers. In the opening example, BLI could undo some of the pending price increase in light of the Chinese currency devaluation. Or it could keep the new, higher price based on the tariff (since customers have heard about that and expect an increase), and pocket the compensating savings due to the devaluation (since perhaps fewer people have heard of, or understand, that change).Time will tell....
And note that the currency devaluation lowers prices of Chinese goods for everyone except the Chinese themselves; e.g., 1 Euro, 1 CAD, 1 pound, etc. buys a little more Chinese stuff than it previously did (all else being equal). Also note that some other exporting countries have devalued their currencies to try to match the Chinese move.
Douglas is correct about the currency devaluation, it may ease the blow by 4% or so. China's currency tends to claw its way back up fairly quickly though so the price will be in flux and that is never as good as stability. The price of anthracite, natural gas, and oil will be an interesting watch as so many products are made out of both. I smell oppourtunity. Got to love the free market economy.
Not being political but trying to be somewhat factual. There is rhetoric that misrepresents the mechanics of how the money flows.
I believe that the current way China is dealing with the tariffs is to lower the price of the product so that the American consumer is paying the same price they would if there was no tariff. If not, the consumer would be paying the tariff, or a 25% higher price as an example. I believe China devaluing its currency is the mechanical process by how they are eating the cost of the tariff. I assume if it gets bad enough for them, they would eventually have to pass on the costs to the American consumer.
So, we should not have seen any increase in prices of our model trains because the more centrally run Chinese economy is forcing the producers...not our importers....to eat the costs so far.
Not sure about products produced in Canada or Mexico but I assume independent producers would choose to react in the same way at first, but because they are more independent they might not get the benefit of a government policy that devalued the currency, so they might have to pass along the cost of the tariff to the consumer more quickly.
Perhaps the additional 10% crossed the line and more costs have to now be passed along. I don't know who manufactures BLI.