I remember years back ........I had worked for a hobby shop called the Train Depot that was in Winter Park Florida..........the owner Stu Marshall was complaining to the LGB rep about their prices not being set in stone...........there were "Basement & Garage" dealers that would advertise 20-30% off...........
...............Well what exactly was the 20-30% off of ?????..........what they would do is add 85% then claim the 20-30% off was a deal.
The train Depot would sell at full price and there were actually people that were either dumb enough or were friends with Stu and buy from him..............people like me would go to BKW or Colonial Photo and Hobby <-------back when they still had trains.
Dennis Blank Jr.
CEO,COO,CFO,CMO,Bossman,Slavedriver,Engineer,Trackforeman,Grunt. Birdsboro & Reading Railroad
Well, since I'm a fan of "good enough, but not strict enough to drive me batty", so I model a fictional Southwestern short/bridge line (which in reality likely might never have happened - or lasted very long. But that's my story and I'm stickin' to it! I try to follow (generally/loosely) some of the practices of Southwestern RR's and have their rolling stock interchanging with 'my' RR line.
For me, it's designed to be fun most of the time (maybe except for wiring, ballasting and - when I get to THAT - DCC.
Jim in Cape G.
NP2626 BRAKIE Paul3So, I will re-phrase my question as, "How many hobby shops can afford the wholesale cost of a quarter million dollars of retail value to invest in stock?" The above question is pretty meaningless. A hobby shop is going to put as much stock on it's shelves, as it can afford and still be a viable business doing the things a business needs to do. However, there certainly are hobby businesses that have more the a quarter of a million in whole sales dollars on their shelves!
BRAKIE Paul3So, I will re-phrase my question as, "How many hobby shops can afford the wholesale cost of a quarter million dollars of retail value to invest in stock?"
Paul3So, I will re-phrase my question as, "How many hobby shops can afford the wholesale cost of a quarter million dollars of retail value to invest in stock?"
The above question is pretty meaningless. A hobby shop is going to put as much stock on it's shelves, as it can afford and still be a viable business doing the things a business needs to do.
However, there certainly are hobby businesses that have more the a quarter of a million in whole sales dollars on their shelves!
NP2626 is right on point here.
I will not get into hard numbers because every time I have in the past, I get nasty private messages from shop owners who read this board who say I should not talk about wholesale prices and store volumes and such.
BUT, I know many shops that existed in the late 70's, when I was managing a train department, that easily had inventories in the $500,000 to $1 million dollar range - in 1978 dollars. $500,000 would be nearly $2 million today - assuming you believe the US government - personally my own research shows the inflation level to be much higher.
As a practical business model, a retail hobby shop should be turning the VALUE of its inventory at least 4 times a year and six would be better - assuming a gross margin of at least 30%. If you can't buy the product well enough to make 30% (part of the problem for many small shops today) you need to be above 6 turns a year to even make a modest profit.
So figured backwards, a shop selling $1 million in trains a year would need $200,000 in inventory - assuming $200,000 in inventory could attract enough customers.
Now, remember I said turn the VALUE 4 times a year - not every product. Some items will sell every month - some only once a year - a few worth while items may take even longer.
In the late 70's, we could see all this coming - the discounting, the higher product count, better detail, higher retail pricing, more product going direct from the manufacturers to the retailers.
We tried to find investors to open a "mega store" - buy direct, sell mail order, discount prices, BIG inventories. We almost put it together, but it really was a "venture capital" kind of thing and we just could not find the right partners.
The shops like Caboose Hobbies, Train World, MB Klein ( I've known Mr Klein casually since I was a teen), Star Hobby, and other BIG boys know you have to have stuff to sell - they buy mountains of it - to get the best price and have it when people want it.
I have no real sympathy or concern for people who try to run businesses on a shoe string, or who do not understand the market they are in. And I don't buy model trains from basement operators acting as special order outlets hoping to skim 10% off the sale of something I could just get from one of the BIG boys.
Back in the day, you could walk into MB Klein with a list of Athearn Blue Box kits (locos, cars, whatever) and walk out with six or 12 or more of each of at least 80% of what was on your list. To a large degree that's how that business still is to the limits of the current production schedules.
That's how you make money and have loyal customers.
I sold MATCO tools at one point in my life - my father and I had side by side MATCO territories here in Baltimore. That is another business were inventory is KING. You roll into a garage, the mechanic needs a tool - he needs it NOW, not next week. My father and I both had retail inventories on our tool trucks in the $100,000 range - in 1984 dollars. We turned that inventory over about 4 times a year.
I have considered getting into the hobby business a few times - and always thought better of it - I know how tough a business it is.
We have no way to know how big the model train industry really is because 99% of the businesses are privately held and their sales numbers are not public. But I suspect that if our little store was doing over $400,000 a year in the 1970's (full line hobby shop - about 1/3 trains) than there are lots of retail/internet/mailorder outlets today doing 20 times that volume - and a few doing way more than that. But I suspect the the ones doing the best, are the ones buying case lots from Athearn, Walthers, Bachmann, etc, etc - not the guy buying one or two of each item from Walthers at prices barely below what you and I can buy the stuff from Trainworld.
If you can't run with the big dogs - stay on the porch.
The fact remains the preorder thing is bad for brick and mortar retailers and not really good for the consumer either. Bachmann, Athearn, Walthers and a few others seem to be usning the preorder thing to their advantage while still putting product "on the shelf".
But outfits like BLI remain cash poor "special oder" brokers who never have anytihng to sell and who play games with prices - Why is it my local shop can buy BLI cheaper from Walthers than direct from BLI, but neither price is low enough to compete with FDT? Yet he can buy Athearn well enough to compete with Trainworld?
Why can a local shop/train show vender like Star Hobby have the same low prices and good inventory on Bachmann as Trainworld? But has little BLI on the shelf - because Bachmann makes the trains first and sells them at the same price to everyone who can buy resonable volume. He can't sell "preorders" at the train show - that takes actual product. Last time I was in Star Hobby, just a few weeks ago, his "on the shelf" inventory of Specturm locos was about 900 pieces - just Spectrum black/red/green/blue boxes - some made 10 years ago, some brand new releases - again 900 pieces x average selling price? - $175? = $157,000, just in HO Spectrum locos.
I don't know were you shop, but I shop in stores that have trains to sell.
Sheldon
BRAKIE Paul3So, I will re-phrase my quesion as, "How many hobby shops can afford the wholesale cost of a quarter million dollars of retail value to invest in stock?"
Paul3So, I will re-phrase my quesion as, "How many hobby shops can afford the wholesale cost of a quarter million dollars of retail value to invest in stock?"
NP 2626 "Northern Pacific, really terrific"
Northern Pacific Railway Historical Association: http://www.nprha.org/
Paul,A quarter million dollars would be a lot of stock..
I suspect not to many small shops could afford that but,let's not fool our selves there are shops that have that much tied up in stock-trains,R/C models,supplies,slot cars,kits etc...We both know the owner didn't work his way up to a large store by sitting on his hands complaining about the Internet and all to sadly a lot of shop owners isn't willing to go that extra mile to become a top notch store..Like any business to become successful you gotta work at it by going that extra mile.
Larry
Conductor.
Summerset Ry.
"Stay Alert, Don't get hurt Safety First!"
Sorry for taking so long to reply... It's been a busy week here in Eastern Massachusetts and I've been distracted by non-hobby events. Not that I'm even near it, but I admit to being glued to the TV. Anyways...
Brakie,First of all, you're right. I should have worded my posting better. Obviously, I was throwing retail numbers out there when of course the dealers are paying wholesale. So, I will re-phrase my quesion as, "How many hobby shops can afford the wholesale cost of a quarter million dollars of retail value to invest in stock?" (italics are the changes)
Secondly, books are not the best comparison. There are no "kits vs. RTR" in books. No "limited runs" except for monthly series like Harlequins and Gold Eagle titles. There still is a real demand for older titles as folks discover an author and then want to go back and read them all. So it's not quite the same.
Still, I don't disagree. New stock in an LHS is required to stay in business. But is it logical to demand and expect an LHS to have it all in stock years after the models are made, just like what happened in the 1970's and 1980's? I don't.
Sheldon,Yeah, I talk about locomotives for simple reasons: there are relavtively fewer engines and it's a constant over the years. I just spent hours going over every loco Athearn announced in 2012 and there are hundreds of data points I typed into an Excel file. Do you want me to put in other stuff, too? Freight and passenger cars? Decals and paint? Building kits and ground foam? Throttlepacks and DCC? Plywood and 1x4's? Sorry, but I'm sticking to locos because I already have the info, and it's good info.
Ignore it all you want, but the reality is that there have been more Athearn locos announced in one calendar year (2012) than was available from Athearn in all of 1971.
Paul A. Cutler III
Paul,
Once again my response is simple:
You ALLWAYS talk about this in terms of LOCOMOTIVE models, and I am talking about ALL THE SUPPLIES needed to build a WORKING layout. I'm not just talking about kit bashing locomotives, but rolling stock, structures, etc. Now we are even moving into built up structures?
There is a thing in this life called "balance". Sure a shop needs fresh inventory and needs to know its customer base - it also needs something to sell other than photos of future models. At first the pre order thing was only about locos, but it has moved into rolling stock and who knows what next? Track? Structures?
Your Athearn example is a straw man, because regional preferences can easily rule out "complete" or heavy inventories of some items. Here in Maryland B&O and C&O locos out sell UP locos 10 to 1.
Today - it is the places that HAVE INVENTORY that get my business - TrainWorld, MB Klein, Star Hobby - they have trains, and lots of them, sitting on the shelf for me to buy - and I do.
The BLI drivers were, or became through operation, both out of quarter and out of square - removal and resetting, and/or some replacement parts were required to do the job.
Paul3 If you ran a train LHS today, would you stock the shelves like it was done in 1971? Paul
If you ran a train LHS today, would you stock the shelves like it was done in 1971?
Paul
There's always two sides to a story.
Could a dealer sell (say) books if all he has in stock is stale books that's been on his shelves for years? I don't think so..The same applies for hobby shops you can't sell models if you don't turn over your stock and keep it fresh.You gotta have your customers wanting to return to your store to buy the latest model instead of going elsewhere or buying on line.You gotta invest money in order to make money since you can sell what you don't have.
BTW.Your prices is retail not wholesale..Shops buy wholesale.
Sheldon,Why were you taking the BLI drivers apart?And what if one doesn't want to kit bash? What good is it to have a ton of kitbash-able models for those people? And you do realize that kit bashers are the minority, and always have been, right? The far majority of modelers have pretty much run their Athearns right out of the box, possibly with only the addition of railings and other included details to finish the kit, even back in the day. Manufacturers are going to go after the largest market possible, and that's not kit bashers.
Pre-ordering is not a "gimmick". It's not a trick. They aren't fooling you. It really is a measure of the demand for a model. Not enough pre-orders, the model doesn't get made. Makes sense to me.
I seriously doubt anyone was "happy" to invest in inventory. AFAIK, no one is "happy" about it. It's a big risk, no matter the business one is in. Buy too little, you lose potential sales; buy too much, and you lose your shirt.
And I wonder how many sales were lost in yon olden days when guys would go into a hobby shop, year after year, and find the same old stuff on the shelves. Heck, one could travel across the USA and find the same stock at just about every model train shop he came across for most of a decade. How many exact copies of the same engine (same name, same number, same performance) does one need?
As far as business is concerned, I also work & manage in small retail and have for the past 24 years (starting when I was 14). I guess I don't know about business, either, right?So let us test our business skills. In 1971, Athearn cataloged 275 different locomotive SKU's, counting powered and dummy units. The retail price of every single Athearn loco available in 1971 came to a total of $2,790.97 (that's $16,039.16 in today's money, according to the BLS.gov calculator). So to fully stock a hobby shop with say, 2 copies of every loco, would have cost $5,581.94 ($32,078.32 in 2013 dollars).In 2012, Athearn announced 480 locomotive SKU's, counting sound and non-sound units (but only counting 2-loco box sets as one SKU). Retail price for all that? $129,390.40. Buy two of everything like the above example? $258,780.80. That's just one calendar year. How many hobby shops can afford a quarter million dollars to invest in stock? All just in case John Doe wants one in 10 to 15 years? It makes no sense to expect any LHS to have that kind of inventory, let alone keep it for a decade plus just so some newbie model railroader doesn't get all disappointed that what he wants isn't available when he's ready to buy it.
Ulrich I currently model the prototype, but I'd like to try something more along the lines of proto freelance..i.e. modelling a railroad that perhaps existed once and extending it in time to the present day by rewriting history. For example, building a present day version of the Lehigh Valley would be fun.
I currently model the prototype, but I'd like to try something more along the lines of proto freelance..i.e. modelling a railroad that perhaps existed once and extending it in time to the present day by rewriting history. For example, building a present day version of the Lehigh Valley would be fun.
Paul3 NP2626,IIRC, the problem with the first run Hudsons was with the pick up wipers. They were too stiff and did not make good contact. And yes, oddly enough, one has to be extremely carefull when picking up steam engines that have a ton of detail parts of them. If one wants bullet-proof detailed models, buy brass. Paul A. Cutler III
NP2626,IIRC, the problem with the first run Hudsons was with the pick up wipers. They were too stiff and did not make good contact. And yes, oddly enough, one has to be extremely carefull when picking up steam engines that have a ton of detail parts of them. If one wants bullet-proof detailed models, buy brass.
Nope, the problem as I understand it, from Broadway Limited Inc., was that the motor drive was connected to driver set # 3(rear). The newer production runs have the motor drive connected to driver set # 2 (middle). I saw on several occasions where the rear drivers would turn past being in quarter with the front two sets and lock the whole thing up! Also, there's some type of problem with the spring pressure used to equalize the drivers and effect good footing on the rails which allowed the front drivers to lift over the rails, causing the locomotive to derail.
Nothing was ever said about problems with electrical wipers and I never saw anything that would lead me to believe there was a problem with electrical pick-up.
I do buy some New Old Stock kind of stuff, kits never built, Proto locos obviously never out of the box with the shells still separate from the drives, Bachmann locos with all packing still in place or the shrink wrap still on the box.
But very, very, very, very rarely do I buy truly "used" equipment.
I don't have enough brass to say I buy brass - just one old PFM/United USRA 4-6-2, now fitted with a Bachmann tender - bought that from a friend. Never had much interest in brass for the some of the same resons I don't like the preorder system now.
And one Orient Limited Powerhouse USRA Pacific, bought NOS, also now with a Bachmann tender.
On a few of those BLI drivers, the cheap material in the centers disintegrated upon dis-assembly. So I had to buy the newer version of the driver, and take them apart and turn the bearings around - one of the design changes of the new vendor.
Back in the day all those "boring" generic, always on the shelf products that you like to disparage, many of those items made for great kit bashing starting points. And you could count on being able to get them. Today if they are still available, they are RTR in only a few roadnames and nearly impossible to dis-assemble - example the full range of MDC old time passenger cars.
Paul, I build a lot of stuff, I buy a lot of RTR, a great deal of which gets some sort of kit bashing, upgrading or modifying - but I'm not a collector of high end RTR model trains - regardless of the materials used to construct them.
And batch production or not, I think manufacturers should make stuff then sell it, not the other way around.
Truth is model trains have ALWAYS been produced in small limited production "rotation" batches. Truth also is that today's "batches" are generally larger than when those models were made here in the USA. Truth is the preorder thing is just a gimmick to get faster turnover, while providing a lower level of customer service. Truth is when people paid retail prices manufacturers, distributors and retailers were happy to "invest" in inventory. Truth is the elimination of the distributor, heavy discounting and overseas production has created the need for quicker turnover of more product. But there is no clear picture as to if this makes the hobby better or worse for the average modeler - it is just different
In the past, Athearn made a "batch" of F7's and actually hoped they stayed on the shelves of distributors and retailers until they got back around to making more. Running out would mean loosing potential sales. I often wonder how many sales have been "lost" in the current market to simply not having product on the shelf to sell?
But what would I know about it? I just worked in hobby shops starting at age 13, managed a train department in one, have run/owned other retail businesses, and have been self employed most of my life, I'm now 56 - you're right I surely can't know anything about business.
Trend towards prototype modeling?? Maybe…Seems to me that you might end up closer to this area the farther you advance your skills in the hobby. If the goal is to be realistic, you naturally start gravitating to what the prototype did to increase realism. Not necessarily in terms of slavishly following every operating practice and aspect of a specific road, but you get there by trying to model things accurately. How tall is a telephone pole? What color is the ballast? The list is endless. As you do this, it becomes a slippery slope and soon you buy a scale ruler and are scratch building stuff, rooting about for the right caboose, buying brass locos of specific prototypes…etc
I am a proto-freelancer. I like the idea of combining scenes and equipment together that look like they are real but never occurred in nature. I have combined several prototypes that ran in the same location and era to get the feel I want. This limits me to a certain subset of equipment and scenes but there is more freedom than strict prototype modeling. I am modeling mostly prototype scenes but they are a mash-up of areas from different railroads.
As for not buying used equipment, I would say that this will limit you to what is still around as NOS or in current production. If I followed that idea, I would have very few locos and almost no cabooses. If you are talking steam, most of the locomotives and cabooses that are accurate for a particular road are only available in brass. Many of them are small, one time only runs that sold out many years ago. This means you are in the used market….
One other comment: There are a lot of great modelers in the prototype area of the hobby. Seeing their work is always inspiring and I think magazines are following the talent. I see an equal amount of great freelance modeling/articles so I am not sure there is a trend one way or the other. I would say the trend is towards more realistic models in general, regardless of the overall vision of the modeler.
Your mileage may vary,
Guy
see stuff at: the Willoughby Line Site
Brakie,In the past 7 years, I've been to Rochelle, IL. I've been to Blue Island and Dolton, IL. I've been to Horseshoe Curve (twice). I've stayed overnight at Bridgeview, Cresson, and Galitzin, PA. I think I've gone to some serious railfan locations. Of course, I had to travel hundreds of miles to find any...which was my point.
Look at a tonnage map of the US, and New England may as well not even exist. And it's not like no one lives here. There's 14.5 million people in New England. That would make us the 5th most populous state. All these people don't see the kind of tonnage that rolls through Ohio every day. It just doesn't exist over here. So there's plenty of "ho hum" modern railroading for a significant portion of the population in this country. If you came East, Brakie, you'd be bored to tears. Around here, you can wait all day to see 1 (yes, one!) freight train. Excited yet? Me neither. Passenger trains? We got lots. Freight...not so much.
Sheldon,Judging by the traffic at eBay and at train shows, I'd say you are in a tiny minority in not ever buying used equipment from strangers. I, myself, have a pretty good NH brass collection (2 dozen pieces), all but two of which were purchased 2nd hand. Some of them I bought a good 30 years after they had been made, going through who knows how many modelers before I got my hands on them. Sure, most of my plastic was purchased "new in box", but when I see a NH P2K GP9 in good shape at a train show for $25, I'm gonna buy it. Same goes for my NH P2K PA-1 for $40 with DCC installed. I don't turn up my nose at them because they are used. It's not like they are a pair of dirty old shoes.
So if you think that building your own is the way to go when the manufacturers don't make what you want, then why the big rant against the amoutn of items that are out of stock? Aren't these mutually exclusive ideas?
And what parts needed to be replaced? Drivers that slipped on the axles? What about just using Loctite?
Both of them, one a Bachmann two truck climax and the other the first production run of BLI's NYC J1e Hudson, had problems stemming from issues that led to a redesign of the drive systems and in the climax's case a change to a completely different locomotive.
I am unwilling to fix a poor design, which is what was going on, here. I also felt that at least with the BLI Hudson, you have to be so careful picking it up, with all the extremely fragile details glued onto the shell, that fixing when BLI had decided they would exchange my loco for the latest production run, it would have been pretty stupid not take advantage of this, even though I lost all the work I put into it, bashing it into something else.
NP2626 Paul3 NP2626,If you can build MDC kit steam engines, why are you sending back RTR steam engines to have someone else fix it? I would think that someone who can rivet together valve gear can fix any steam loco drive problem up to and including re-gearing and re-motoring. Paul A. Cutler III Because there was no way to repair them.
Paul3 NP2626,If you can build MDC kit steam engines, why are you sending back RTR steam engines to have someone else fix it? I would think that someone who can rivet together valve gear can fix any steam loco drive problem up to and including re-gearing and re-motoring. Paul A. Cutler III
NP2626,If you can build MDC kit steam engines, why are you sending back RTR steam engines to have someone else fix it? I would think that someone who can rivet together valve gear can fix any steam loco drive problem up to and including re-gearing and re-motoring. Paul A. Cutler III
Because there was no way to repair them.
The problem is parts, one might be a very skilled and experienced kit builder, but not be a machinist. Bachmann, BLI, Athearn, Walthers/Proto and rest have only limited parts supplies for these import locos.
In 1970 I repaired all manner of model trains and got paid to do it - I was 14 years old. I still work on a lot of locos, and choose to fix many of these RTR locos when need be. But again, parts are a challenge.
I surely understand NP's position of not wanting to fix some RTR loco he paid good money for.
I bought two BLI heavy Mikes - like NP's past problems, they both developed problems after I kit bashed them. BLI could not provide the correct parts do to changes in vendors - I bought parts that were close and reworked them myself. Both locos had to be "rebuilt" from the ground up to fix drivers that slipped out of quarter and other drive line issues. I decided to do it - but I surely understand why others would not.
And I have had to fix way less Bachmann locos than BLI locos, yet I have 6 times as many Bachmann locos.
b60bpIn all seriousness, there is really a lot of stuff to be had nowadays, at least if you move really fast or don't mind ordering a year of two in advance.
I only have two points of response - I don't buy "used" model trains from strangers, and I buy very, very little "pre owned", even if I know where it came from. So I don't count the "secondary" modeler to modeler market in such discussions.
And, true, not everything is given to model railroaders on a silver platter - some of us actually build what we want rather than wait for manufacturers to make it.
Paul3 Brakie,Again, where there are Class I rails it tends to be pretty busy, mostly because of the concentration of increasing traffic on fewer and fewer track miles. The problem is that we don't have that here in New England. The nearest "heavy traffic" line is in Albany, NY. Heck, Boston just lost it's last freight yard downtown when CSX closed ex-B&A Beacon Park Yard (three others have already closed). The only one left is Readville Yard, a dozen miles from downtown on the very outskirts of town. The point is that yes, railroads still do what they have always done in providing transportation. But compared to what used to be, it's pretty boring unless you happen to live on a busy Class I mainline...and even if you do, it's probably going to be a stack train or a coal train. When I was in Rochelle, IL a few years ago, all I was seeing was stacks and coal, with maybe one boxcar train out of the 2 dozen trains I saw. Meanwhile, on the old NH, there was an all-LCL train, an all reefer train, an all TOFC train, an all empties train, etc., every day. Today, on the same NH route, there is not one freight train that runs through from town except for one local freight. Therefore, ho-hum.
Brakie,Again, where there are Class I rails it tends to be pretty busy, mostly because of the concentration of increasing traffic on fewer and fewer track miles. The problem is that we don't have that here in New England. The nearest "heavy traffic" line is in Albany, NY. Heck, Boston just lost it's last freight yard downtown when CSX closed ex-B&A Beacon Park Yard (three others have already closed). The only one left is Readville Yard, a dozen miles from downtown on the very outskirts of town.
The point is that yes, railroads still do what they have always done in providing transportation. But compared to what used to be, it's pretty boring unless you happen to live on a busy Class I mainline...and even if you do, it's probably going to be a stack train or a coal train. When I was in Rochelle, IL a few years ago, all I was seeing was stacks and coal, with maybe one boxcar train out of the 2 dozen trains I saw. Meanwhile, on the old NH, there was an all-LCL train, an all reefer train, an all TOFC train, an all empties train, etc., every day. Today, on the same NH route, there is not one freight train that runs through from town except for one local freight. Therefore, ho-hum.
Paul,You can't judge todays railroads by a railfan location or a downsized NH line.
Come to Bucyrus or Fostoria and you will see what todays railroading is all about..NS enlarged their Bellevue yard,you want to see a reefer train? Hang aroung Fostoria and you will see one wanna see more freight trains then stack trains? Go to Berea,Fostoria or Bellevue..
There is no "oh hum" to todays railroading-unless one closes his eyes and mind or never railfans.
NP2626,If you can build MDC kit steam engines, why are you sending back RTR steam engines to have someone else fix it? I would think that someone who can rivet together valve gear can fix any steam loco drive problem up to and including re-gearing and re-motoring.
Sheldon,There were "way less" prototypes to choose from in 1980? Compared to the total number of locos ever made, including the steam era, that would be an incorrect statement. Sure, there have been a couple to several dozen new prototype locos made since 1980, but that isn't much compared to the 150 years of loco prototypes before that. As for the 4 (actually 5, sorry) new Athearn locos of the 1980's, only the prototype GP50 was created after the 1970's (in 1980, to be exact). The others (GP40-2, SD40-2, SD40T-2, GP38-2) date back to the early 1970's (1972, in fact).
The internet has a ton of bearing on availablity, and I'm surprised you don't see it. What you're missing is that direct sales of models from hobbyist to hobbist with eBay, HO Yard Sale, and others. In yon olden times, when a modeler wanted to sell off his unwanted models, he'd have to rent a table at a train show, consign them at a hobby shop, advertize in a magazine or newspaper, or have a yard sale. The possible customer base numbered in the hundreds. Today, they list them online and sell them across the world to hundreds of thousands of potential customers...all without leaving their house. IOW, direct sales from modeler to modeler was rare then, and it's common now. Can find a model in a hobby shop or via mail order? It'll probably pop up on eBay before too long. And that's a game changer.
You know, Sheldon, in 1990-1991, I did exactly what you said to do. I picked a railroad (NH) and an era (Transition to 1968), made a rolling stock, locomotive and structure list for a medium sized layout. And guess what? The stuff I wanted did not exist! I wanted to model Boston to Providence. I needed I-5 4-6-4's (brass only), R-1 4-8-2's (brass only), Y-3 0-8-0's (brass only), PA-1's (Athearn but not in NH or brass), DL-109's (brass only), S-1's (Cary body or brass), HH660's (brass only), FL9's (brass only), NE-5 and NE-6 cabooses (brass only), RDC's (shorty Athearn rubberband power or brass), and NH coaches (brass only). See the pattern? Today, I have all these things in plastic except for the FL9's, and they are in the works. About the only thing I needed that was available at that time was RS-3's, RS-11's, and S-2's.
So as far as I see it, I can have 50% availability (as you said) of what I want at this very second, or 0% availablity of what's out there because what I want did not exist and never had (at least not in brass). I don't know about you, but half a loaf is better than nothing. And better yet, because I bought the models when they came out, I have almost 100% of what I wanted. Your way would leave me with perhaps 25%...if that (with only 5 new models a decade from the biggest company). No thanks.
And if new modelers get frustrated because they can't get everything they ever wanted whenever they get around to paying for it? Too bad. I survived. They can, too. It's completely unrealistic to think that every possible model ever made will be 100% available at all times. Why should some hobby shop or wholesaler stock all that on the odds that someday, 10 to 15 years from now, John Doe from Peoria, IL will buy it? It doesn't make any economic sense. Sorry, but not everything is given to model railroaders on a silver platter...they actually have to work for what they want by going to train shows, calling hobby shops, and hunting on eBay. If they can't do that, then perhaps some other hobby is better for their impatient attitude.
dehusmanI'm going to have to side with the there is more availability group. In 1974 when I first bacme really serious about model railroading I had a choice of 3 cast metal Ulrich hoppers, 2 versions of the B&O offset quad, the Roundhouse triple and the Varney derivative USRA twins
dehusmanIn the 1970's I started modeling the LV, but I switched to the RDG. Why? Because in the 1970's models of Alco engines that ran worth a darn were very rare. They weren't made (except in brass).
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Dave & folks,
1974? Well, I try to make allowances for newbies but weren't there three versions of Athearn twin hopper by then? And didn't the Train Miniature offset and ribbed cars come out before that?
As far as Alcos went, yes there were problems, but Hobbytown had some pretty decent kits available, including the PA, FA, RS3 and an RSC or RSD. They took some work, but boy could they pull!
In all seriousness, there is really a lot of stuff to be had nowadays, at least if you move really fast or don't mind ordering a year of two in advance. There are only a few cars I'd like to aquire, and one of them, Bowser's Pennsy H30 coverd hopper isn't even out yet. Sure like to have one of Atlas's 1932 USRA box cars, the SAL one with the plate ends. I missed pre-ordering (at full list price plus shipping that added about 1/3 to the price) and have never seen one anywhere. Instead of wondering if they'd even reissue the car I said to hell with their limited edition nonsense (something we didn't often have to deal with in the 1960's) and decided to roll my own. I've got a Funaro 1932 car around here to which I/m going to graft TM X29 ends from a parts-only car, use some Micro decals, add some Kadee trucks and couplers and call it a day. Since this is all stuff I have on hand I'll save about $25-30 and a lot of waiting.
When I think about it, all those kitbashing articles really paid off and have given me countless hours of pleasure. Heck, even some of those Athearn ersatz cars have turned out pretty well.
Oh well, enjoy.
Benny
I'm going to have to side with the there is more availability group. In 1974 when I first bacme really serious about model railroading I had a choice of 3 cast metal Ulrich hoppers, 2 versions of the B&O offset quad, the Roundhouse triple and the Varney derivative USRA twins. Now I have literally dozens of choces for hoppers from a wide variety of manufacturers. Might I have to root around a bit to get one of each. But the points that no matter how rare they are, they do exist. In 1970 they didn't exist. Yes the hobby shops all had stock, but it was the SAME stock. I had my choice of buying the same Varney twin at 6 different hobby shops. Did any of them stock a Stewart fishbelly hopper? Nope, they hadn't been made. did any of them stock a Bowser GLa? Nope, they hadn't been made. What was available? 4000 copies of the Varney twin.
In the 1970's I started modeling the LV, but I switched to the RDG. Why? Because in the 1970's models of Alco engines that ran worth a darn were very rare. They weren't made (except in brass). So I changed focus to a railroad for which engiens were being made. Now today there are models of GP-18's, RS2's, RS3's, RS11's, C628's, PA's, FA's, all manner of F units. Are some of them rare. Yes. But they exist. They did not exist in 1970. Could I have bought an engine in 1970 at my hobby shop? Sure, every hobby shop had AHM RS2 and GP-18's.
The difference between 30-40 years ago and today is that 30-40 years ago there were 50 models and more hobby shops that had pleanty of them. Today there are 1000 models, but they are spread over more venues.
Ironically the one place that hasn't changed is the era I'm in. The exact same half dozen models for the 1900 era in production today are the same models that were in procution in 1974.
Dave H. Painted side goes up. My website : wnbranch.com
ATLANTIC CENTRAL alco_fan Some of the usual suspects finding a way to be offended _at nothing_ here. Offended??????????????????????????????????? Seemed like a nice friendly conversation to me? Sheldon
alco_fan Some of the usual suspects finding a way to be offended _at nothing_ here.
Some of the usual suspects finding a way to be offended _at nothing_ here.
Offended???????????????????????????????????
Seemed like a nice friendly conversation to me?
So far everyone is behaving themselves "alco_fan" ...
Any argument carried far enough will end up in Semantics--Hartz's law of rhetoric Emerald. Leemer and Southern The route of the Sceptre Express Barry
I just started my blog site...more stuff to come...
http://modeltrainswithmusic.blogspot.ca/
You said, "Because the fact is there is only slightly more product in production and actually available at ANY GIVEN MONMENT then there was 30 years ago." I'm sorry, but you're dead wrong. There is far, far more available today than there was in 1983. The availablity what's on the internet alone can argue the point. And new models? Athearn made, what, 4 new loco models in the 1980's? Athearn is announcing 4 new models this year.
Paul, the product availability dynamic is very complex. In 1970, or 1980, there were way less prototypes to make models of - so the ever expanding list of possible prototypes dilutes the choices for manufacturers and modelers alike. How many of those four prototypes existed in 1980? or 1970 when I was new in the hobby?
As for what is on the Internet, that has no bearing - because in 1980 that product was on the shelves of hobby shops and distributors - distribution has changed a lot, and will continue to change - that does no mean there is more product.
Here is my point - pick a railroad, and an era, make a rolling stock, locomotive and structure list for a medium sized layout. Base that list on products cataloged by manufacturers over the last 15 years. Go on the Internet, to the hobby shop, or on the phone and see how much of your list you can buy - money is no object - I'll bet you will have a hard time getting to 50%.
Do the same thing but pretend you are transported back in time to 1975, so you must use pick a railroad and era of that date or before. Make a similar list from the available products - you would have had easily been able to fill your shopping cart to about 80% just by going to MB Klein, Gilberts in Gettysburg, etc.
It does not matter that "at some point" all this product has been made - what only matters is what I can or cannot buy TODAY to build a layout today. It does not matter what "might" be made next week or next year. It does not matter what has been made in the past unless it is readily available new in the box.
When building a layout back then one could say to one's self - "when I get ready I'm going to get that Mikado kit from Mantua and kit bash it into a DT & I Mike". Today you can't ket that Mantua kit nor can you get a DT & I Mike - from anyone.
Yes, a lot of the product was generic - but you could get it any time, when you needed/wanted it - without "preordering", and without buying it used from some clown on the internet.
In the 1970's and 1980's there was lots of new product - Walthers, Roundhouse, Train Miniature, Athearn had a steady stream of new rolling stock offerings. Yes, locos where limited somewhat, but by the late eighties that changed too.
When I ran a train department we would be frustrated because Walthers only had about 75-80% of what was in the catalog - if they have 50% now that's a lot - and their catalog represents much less of the industry than it did in 1980.
I have bought about 100 locos over the last 15 years - I would bet if I tried to replace them all right now less than 10% are readily available new in the box - If I was new in this hobby, the preorder, limited production thing would frustrate me real fast.
Does product availabliy effect peoples modeling choices? I'm sure it does. I would rather choose from stuff I can actually buy right now rather than stuff I might be able to buy or stuff I should have bought 3 years ago if I had known I was going to want it.
NP2626I think the supposed swing to prototype layouts might be more wishful thinking on the part of those people who think that is the direction things should be headed!
Perhaps..But,shouldn't we look beyond MR and other magazines for the direction the hobby is heading? There are forums and on line sig sites that specializes in prototype modeling.
Now and IMHO say my freelance railroad is the Hooten Hollow & Soggy Creek and all you see is (say) ConRail power then by all rights I modeling CR and not a freelance railroad.
This is what a freelance locomotive should look like:
Not this:
I look at equipment availability, as there has always been brass available and I liked kit bashing a generic Roundhouse MDC steamer; or, other manufacturer, into a specific Northern Pacific loco, if I could find one with any semblance to my loco of interest. Now, all steam locos are pretty expensive and cutting up a BLI, Athearn; or Bachmann loco is far less appealing when they cost so much. The other problem I see (and this has happened twice to me in the very recent past) is if I bash a loco and that loco develops problems, there is a very strong likelihood that when I send the loco in for repair, the loco will be exchanged (nobody fixes anything anymore, they just replace) and all the work I did on the kit bash, will be lost!
So, I'm not happy with the high cost and poor performance of the motive power available today, even though it is highly detailed, while my simply designed and built; but, no longer available MDC and other stuff keeps on running like the Everready bunny!
Alco Fan did get a couple things right and one of them is that most of the layouts presented in MR recently have been free lanced; or, proto-freelanced. I think the supposed swing to prototype layouts might be more wishful thinking on the part of those people who think that is the direction things should be headed!
Paul3Brakie,Actually, modern railroading is boring as heck, when & where there is any of it. The uniformity of the North American loco fleet has never been greater, and US track miles haven't been this low since the 1890's. Sure, where there is a Class I mainline, it tends to be pretty busy...as long as you like a lot of coal trains and container trains. Ho hum.
Hi Paul..I guess you don't railfan much or fail to fully understand today's railroads do the same business as the NH did(except operate money losing commuter trains)..They haul freight and switch industries...Nothing new there.
So,I maintain there's far more to modern railroads then the "ho hum" like you been lead to believe.