BRAKIE CNJ831: The DC vs. DCC question is going to have a simpler answer. Look for all future runs to come in as dual mode DCC, with sound probably as standard and no choice of sound/no sound. It's the most logical approach in a shrinking market and the one that both simplifies manufacturing and provides the highest profit return for the manufacturer. ----------------------------------------------- Wow! That is a old time battle cry I first heard on the Atlas DCC forum in 2002/3.. I still haven't seen solid proof that says the market is shrinking ..
CNJ831:
You're not one of the true believers and therefore not on the distribution list.
I don't know what the big deal is, anyway. The world's supposed to come to an end on December 12, 2012. Unless the market completely dries up in the next 31 months give or take, who cares?
On another note, it's my understanding that the market for cars with hand cranked windows, manual transmissions, and rubber floor mats in lieu of wall to wall carpeting has all but disappeared. Let's face it, cars no longer have chokes (manual or otherwise), carburetors, bias ply tires, wind wings, bench seats, and hood ornaments because the evil manufacturers are trying to force us to buy what they want to produce, not what we want to buy.
Andre
The market may come back for hand cranked windows as the motor repairs are $400-500 each.
rrebell The market may come back for hand cranked windows as the motor repairs are $400-500 each.
You can get hand cranked windows yet---
Any argument carried far enough will end up in Semantics--Hartz's law of rhetoric Emerald. Leemer and Southern The route of the Sceptre Express Barry
I just started my blog site...more stuff to come...
http://modeltrainswithmusic.blogspot.ca/
True, but you don't need to repair something that's not broken. I finally gave my '97 Camry to a niece of mine about a year ago. She tells me everything on the car is still working fine including all the windows.
My 2002 Ranger's got hand cranked windows. OTOH, it's a bottom of the line model I bought because I needed a work vehicle and didn't care about abiout much else.
I don't know about you, but I'm old enough to remember when a radio and a heater were still optional equipment on most makes and a well equipped car had radio, heater and white sidewall tires.
When times are getting rough, people will appreciate hand cranked windows, rubber mats and basic, no- frills and down to the earth quality, like they will appreciate basic, but good quality locos for their hobby. And times are not getting rough - they are rough already, only some people have not yet noticed that.
One of the most popular cars sold in Germany to private households was a Dacia Sandero, a Romanian brand owned by Renault. That car is exactly what people are looking form - a basic, but sturdy form of transport, low cost of ownership, no gimmicks and gadgets, that can break . It sells for a little over a half of the price Vplkswagen is asking for their cheapest model.
blownout cylinder The collector willl eventually stop buying the big boy challenger FEF's and then what? We are now technically at market saturation------it is time to think "OTHER"---
The collector willl eventually stop buying the big boy challenger FEF's and then what? We are now technically at market saturation------it is time to think "OTHER"---
Maybe in your opinion.
However, I just got rid of my last non-articulated steamer today (a Spectrum K-4).
I'm currently buying only large articulated steam power, and will be quite happy to get more of what is available as my funds allow.
Regarding the comment someone else made about BLI's quality control, I purchased a factory refurbished Y-6B from them--it arrived in perfect condition with a paint finish rivaling the finest brass models I've ever seen, and runs just great! I plan to buy more of their factory refurbished engines because they are a great value.
Would I like to see a B&O EM-1 2-8-8-4 in plastic or hybrid? Or the DM&IR 2-8-8-4? Or the NP 4-6-6-4? Maybe (but not the NP 4-6-6-4 for me--I'd much rather see the Western Pacific version). Yes to the others...
Will that stop me from buying more UP Challengers/Big Boys/N&W Y-6B's--no. I'm planning to buy another Y-6B now.
I don't think the market is too saturated--I hope there's still some left when I have more money!
Regarding Train World--their website is very difficult to navigate and find what I want; their phone customer service could be better, and consequently I usually do not deal with them.
My 2c.
John
andrechapelonOn another note, it's my understanding that the market for cars with hand cranked windows, manual transmissions, and rubber floor mats in lieu of wall to wall carpeting has all but disappeared. Let's face it, cars no longer have chokes (manual or otherwise), carburetors, bias ply tires, wind wings, bench seats, and hood ornaments because the evil manufacturers are trying to force us to buy what they want to produce, not what we want to buy. Andre
Some of those items were made obsolete by the government. Won't pass emissions standards. I had a '88 Crown Vic with a carburetor. I wished it had fuel injection, as I find FI cars run better and last longer. Wing windows seem to have gone away due to theft. They were easy to break into.
Our vans at work have rubber mats, 3 benches in the back, and Armstrong power windows. They also have 4 wheel drive. Wish they would have speed control, as we drive a lot, 50-60 miles at a time to get crews to trains.
There are some who say the P2K E-unit body is hosed dimensionally a bit. They say the BLI E-unit body is a bit better, but still not quite right. If you try grafting a Highliner F-unit nose (probably the best F-unit nose to date) on, the body won't match up right.
The P2K GP body has an error at the top, the radius of the top of the carbody. The bolts on the top are supposed to be not on the curved part. We'll see if the forthcoming Genesis GPs fix this. Then maybe enough of the older runs P2Ks will come onto the used market for me to acquire some.
The new P2K gearing seems to match up very nicely with Atlas & Kato engines. Same 14:1 ratio. The old P2K and Athearns all had 12:1. With a bit of DCC programming I am getting the Athearns slowed down to run well with the Atlas/P2Ks. The new P2K drive is pretty smooth. Just wish the sound GP9 had weight similar to the older ones. It doesn't pull much.
Mike WSOR engineer | HO scale since 1988 | Visit our club www.WCGandyDancers.com
UP 4-12-2Regarding Train World--their website is very difficult to navigate and find what I want; their phone customer service could be better, and consequently I usually do not deal with them.
John, the "secret" to dealing with TrainWorld is to know exactly what you want, OR, call their regular number, not the 800 number.
They clearly advertize that the 800 number is for orders only. The people who answer it know nothing about trains. I have recieved very good customer attention calling the regular number. When you call the regular number, you actually get someone who can go check stock, as deeper access into their data base, and who likely has at least some understanding of wht you are asking about. And they were very patient and helpful every time.
Just remember John, you are in a different hobby than Barry and I. Obviously with only articulated locos from various roads, you really are not "modeling" anything, just collecting and running. We do crazy stuff like buy undecorated models and build kits - not to mention having a theme to our layouts.
BLI just sent me another incorrect part for my broken Mikado - I think I will have to give up, buy another one to complete the "project" (two heavy Mikado's needed for the roster) and seriously consider limiting any future BLI purchases.
But what do I know, I'm just a hick with a pickup, a gun and some quiet radio controlled DC powered trains.
Sheldon
WSOR 3801 andrechapelon On another note, it's my understanding that the market for cars with hand cranked windows, manual transmissions, and rubber floor mats in lieu of wall to wall carpeting has all but disappeared. Let's face it, cars no longer have chokes (manual or otherwise), carburetors, bias ply tires, wind wings, bench seats, and hood ornaments because the evil manufacturers are trying to force us to buy what they want to produce, not what we want to buy. Andre Some of those items were made obsolete by the government. Won't pass emissions standards. I had a '88 Crown Vic with a carburetor. I wished it had fuel injection, as I find FI cars run better and last longer. Wing windows seem to have gone away due to theft. They were easy to break into. Our vans at work have rubber mats, 3 benches in the back, and Armstrong power windows. They also have 4 wheel drive. Wish they would have speed control, as we drive a lot, 50-60 miles at a time to get crews to trains.
andrechapelon On another note, it's my understanding that the market for cars with hand cranked windows, manual transmissions, and rubber floor mats in lieu of wall to wall carpeting has all but disappeared. Let's face it, cars no longer have chokes (manual or otherwise), carburetors, bias ply tires, wind wings, bench seats, and hood ornaments because the evil manufacturers are trying to force us to buy what they want to produce, not what we want to buy. Andre
I'm not allowed to talk about cars on here, no mater how much others do. As soon as I say anything about cars the thread gets edited or locked or worse.
But a Checker Marathon with todays fuel injection and 4 wheel disc ABS brakes would be a great car, rubber floor mats, crank up windows and all. Especially with a 3 speed manual with overdrive!
I had two Crown Vic's, a 97 and a 02, both with fuel injection and the HP package - great cars!
WSOR 3801There are some who say the P2K E-unit body is hosed dimensionally a bit. They say the BLI E-unit body is a bit better, but still not quite right. If you try grafting a Highliner F-unit nose (probably the best F-unit nose to date) on, the body won't match up right.
Mike, even though the nose is the same on EMD F's and E's, the side panels are completely different on the prototype - that's why making E's out of F's never quite works.
I understand the small errors you mention, way past my need for prefection. I have lots of Proto E's and GP's and their more than close enough for me.
Since I model the early 50's, Atlas and Kato are not on my radar much, little thay have is in my era.
Still very happy with my 50+ Proto2000 locos.
Not to offend, but thank the lord they keep doing the same thing! For some of us just entering the hobby, it's often hard to track down a repeat engine. If BLI did not produce their T-1, I-1sa, M-1a, or J-1, I'd be left looking at brass or hand-me down Bowser/Penn Line kits without sound or DCC. If Bachmann didn't have a host of K-4's flooding the marketplace, my fleet would be 1 or 2 instead of 4.
BLI frankly is what got me back into the hobby and what got me hooked on sound and DCC. They also led to my purchase of PRR items which now has extended into brass models, most of which aren't made anymore. I wish they'd remake a few more like the E6's or L-1's. Heck, I'm in agreement with the others that I'd kill for an H-9 or 10 under $300.00. Nonetheless, I'm still thankful I've been able to build a decent Pennsy and NCY roster from current manufacturers.
Not all of us have been in the hobby for 20-30 years. We missed most of the production runs you are referring to and I frankly, am a bit worried about picking up more K-4's because it seems Bachmann has discontinued them according to their website.
Flynn Not to offend, but thank the lord they keep doing the same thing! For some of us just entering the hobby, it's often hard to track down a repeat engine. If BLI did not produce their T-1, I-1sa, M-1a, or J-1, I'd be left looking at brass or hand-me down Bowser/Penn Line kits without sound or DCC. If Bachmann didn't have a host of K-4's flooding the marketplace, my fleet would be 1 or 2 instead of 4. BLI frankly is what got me back into the hobby and what got me hooked on sound and DCC. They also led to my purchase of PRR items which now has extended into brass models, most of which aren't made anymore. I wish they'd remake a few more like the E6's or L-1's. Heck, I'm in agreement with the others that I'd kill for an H-9 or 10 under $300.00. Nonetheless, I'm still thankful I've been able to build a decent Pennsy and NCY roster from current manufacturers. Not all of us have been in the hobby for 20-30 years. We missed most of the production runs you are referring to and I frankly, am a bit worried about picking up more K-4's because it seems Bachmann has discontinued them according to their website.
Flynn, No offense taken at all, in fact, except for the K4, all the locos you mentioned have not been over produced by any means and it is a good thing that they were brought to market.
But understand that if BLI and MTH had stayed out of the K4 market, Bachmann would have had an incentive to both improve and continue theirs. Instead, they likely feel the market has become saturated and its time to move on.
Now three companies have tooling for K4's, none of which are currently in production and it is questionable if two of the really made any money selling K4's. Is that good for the hobby?
No doubt in a few years some or all of these companies will rerun their K4. It has always happened in the past, it will continue.
Same is likely true regarding the EMD E units I mentioned. The BLI product is not near as good as the Proto2000 product in my view. My view is based strictly on fine details which the Proto loco has more of. Operationaly I consider them equal, except that being a DC operator, I prefer locos without DCC or sound - Proto always offers both, BLI not so much so. All BLI did was tie up money and "divide" the market for that product a few years ago, making less money for both them and LifeLike/Walthers.
But what do I know.....
... And let's not even get started on this problem in N Scale. We've got no fewer than four different manufacturers offering Alco PA's. As nifty as the prototype was, it had a very short life span, and only saw service on a relative few lines that had passenger service.
Meanwhile, we waited for almost 20 years to get a decent F-7 to compete with the Kato offering, which gets produced only sporadically, and then only in a handful of roadnames.
Then, there's the completely bone-headed marketing approach that some manufacturers (who shall remain nameless, but whose initials are WKW) who base their production of N scale models on the sales generated in HO. That's like being a hardware dealer and deciding that you won't carry lawn mowers in the spring because you didn't sell many storm windows over the winter.
The up side of the much maligned "made to order" protocol is that it allows manufacturers to try some new things, offer them in limited batches that meet the immediate demand, then gauge their ability to re-run the item again later. This has netted us such oddities as the Baldwin VO-1000 switcher, the Atlas two truck Shay, and a bunch of small road paint schemes that we would never have seen under the old system.
Lee
Route of the Alpha Jets www.wmrywesternlines.net
I waited and waited for the M1b #6755 to come out as I fell in love with the static display of it at the RR Museum of PA. I would have paid up to about $300 just to have a copy model of the one I fell in love with with DCC installed.
WEll,, they came out with the M1a under different numbers than I wanted and never did produce the M1b #6755, at least if they did I could never find any anywhere. apperntly they did sell quite a few, but not enough to warrant producing all 4 models/numbers they promised in the M1a and M1b series.
It seems to me that they are willing to produce detailed accurate models-if we will pay the price for them. I can ask for a Owego-Harford Rail Road model xyz1abc just like they run on the Owego-Harford rail road around here but no one else is going to buy it. SO why produce it.
Pennsys and B&Oand incarnates, UP modelers may have all the fun, cuz there is a lot of stuff available to them to buy because they were popular lines in the history of RRing.
If they would actually take orders THEY WOULD REALLY DELIVER IN A TIMELY MANNER, and make 10-20% more for "overstock" for those who missed the ordering or saw one and liked it, they might succeed at profiting wisely and satifying us.
Not matter how you look at MRRing, it is a racket just like anything else. One thing about "limited production runs" I see cropping up more and more is that if they make a limited number, they will quickly run out of spare parts and won't be able to "fix" your failed loco as "parts aren't available anymore", leaving you hanging and them off the hook for repairs.
WE are more or less forced into buying cars with power and automatic and computer controlled everything because that is what they produce. WE will adapt. SOme of those are Gov't imposed laws for the car manufacturers to abide by. Car buying/selling is a racket. SO is getting one repaired. Apparently two different mechanical {nat'l shops} replaced sensors and told me the computer was failing and only a dealer could fix rthe computer. I spent about $1200 at those shops for sensors and equipment and it still didn't solve the engine problem. It turns out at the dealer that there was SIMPLY A LOOSE WIRE in the engines wiring harness that they fixed and zip striped into place guaranteeing me it would never come loose again and solved the problems. all that for only $64.00. What a racket.
-G .
Just my thoughts, ideas, opinions and experiences. Others may vary.
HO and N Scale.
After long and careful thought, they have convinced me. I have come to the conclusion that they are right. The aliens did it.
I have to agree with the OP. There is a glut on the market of several locomotives. And by the same token a distinct lack of variety for others. Just look in the Walthers catalog, Just about every manufacturer offeres an F uint, some even offer several (not counting paint schemes or numbers) But currently only 1 Sharknose, and only 1 Lima diesel.
So let's put it this way: say 20 people (manufacturers) walk into a bakery, the shelves have 1 apple pie (f unit market), 1 cherry pie (gp market) and a variety of donuts (everyone else) The manufacturers are fighting over 2 pies which means they only get small pieces but, noone wants the donuts even though you can get more for the same price.
Sure smaller demand for some off the wall stuff but you simply charge more for it and those who want it will pay more. You don't need a huge production run with marginal profit to make money. Add in the trend toward preorders and it makes even more sense for manufacturers to actually do some market research into whats wanted.
Funny the comparison to the auto market came up. Let it be a warning to the modeling manufacturers. I don't buy new cars simply because I'm priced out of it. I can't get a basic stripped down truck with the power I need for hauling. I can get the power but I am forced to buy A/C, Automatic, leather, power windows etc etc etc. The model world is heading the same way, DCC/Sound is the way they want to get profit but what if you don't need or like the dcc system they include? Wouldn't you rather get dcc ready?
Modeling the Cleveland and Pittsburgh during the PennCentral era starting on the Cleveland lakefront and ending in Mingo junction
ATLANTIC CENTRAL Just remember John, you are in a different hobby than Barry and I. Obviously with only articulated locos from various roads, you really are not "modeling" anything, just collecting and running. We do crazy stuff like buy undecorated models and build kits - not to mention having a theme to our layouts. Sheldon
Uh, last time I checked, scenery is also something we model, and though I may be accused of "collecting" articulateds from various roads, I actually am attempting to model southwestern scenery--and doing desert "well" is not quite as simple as it might sound due to the variety of plants and relative rarity of ho scale versions of many of them. I have a lot of scenery work ahead of me.
My layout does have a theme--it's southwestern mainline operations. For space limitations--and the fact that the actual mainline mileage greatly outnumbered terminal areas, I've chosen to delete terminal and switching operations almost entirely from the layout. I've even got video of UP switching cars with not one but two big articulateds coupled together, anyway.
Also, the big articulateds actually did migrate more than most smaller power. William Kratville documented that Union Pacific 4-6-6-4's actually operated on Santa Fe, Rio Grande, Northern Pacific, and Southern Pacific during periods when the UP mainline was blocked by snow or otherwise. Additionally, Union Pacific borrowed 4-6-6-4's from the Western Pacific around 1950. DM&IR 2-8-8-4's wintered for more than one season on the Rio Grande.
Finally, even the Mexicans received large modern roller-bearing equipped Alco-built 2-6-6-2's that did sorta resemble early version Challengers, and received the nickname "Mexican Big Boys". Given the plethora of American steam that went south to Mexico, it wouldn't necessarily be out of "theme" to have some ex-American articulateds in the Sonoran desert there (though to my knowledge that did not happen in real life). Lots of folks take more imaginary liberties than that with their "theme".
Mexico actually boasted a fleet of perhaps 36 standard gauge 2-6-6-2's, of more than one class--some early, some very late. Here's a good image of a late version:
http://www.rrpicturearchives.net/showPicture.aspx?id=1570177
Flynn--
To my knowledge the Spectrum K-4 was produced several years ago, now. The revised version currently seen on the market was produced sometime during the early 2000's in both early and late versions. The dealers have been sitting on them for many years--which is one reason for the current preorder system.
There are plenty of Spectrum K-4's out there, new in the box, if you just hunt for them.
Alternatively, I know a dealer that has a really good used one, DC only, for sale right now at an affordable price. Also a new, DCC version.
UP 4-12-2To my knowledge the Spectrum K-4 was produced several years ago, now. The revised version currently seen on the market was produced sometime during the early 2000's in both early and late versions. The dealers have been sitting on them for many years--which is one reason for the current preorder system.
I beg to differ, Bachmann has K4's with DCC only listed in their 2010 catalog as a new current run.
Their 2008 catalog had DCC with sound versions, I do not have a 2009 catalog to check.
The Spectrum K4 has been rerun many times, upgraded several times and offered DCC ready, DCC and DDC with sound at different times over its long history.
And yes, lot of dealers still have them in stock as it sohuld be, you should be able to go to the store and buy this stuff.
Flynn, If you are interested in more K4's, Star Hobby in Annapolis MD has a large stock of Bachmann Spectrum, always at the best prices, never any pricing games. They do not advertise on the web, but they are at all train shows here in the east and will deal with you by mail. Give them a call.
UP 4-12-2The dealers have been sitting on them for many years--which is one reason for the current preorder system.
John, Bachmann has not gone the preoder route, nor have they made ANY indication that they will or need to. Star Hobby and Peach Creek and others have tons of it and are selling tons of it. WHY?
Because it is well detailed, runs good and is AFFORDABLE. And most of it makes good kitbash fodder for modelers and most of it represents "everyday" railroading, something a great many of us are interested in.
When I was recently at Peach Creek picking up my latest two Bachmann locos, they were busy packing orders and answer phones and several went out the door as well.
If this hobby becomes nothing but high priced RTR "HO Highrail" it really will be the death of it. BECAUSE when those type of people "get bored" with their expensive toys, there will be nothing left for the modelers.
I've seen this first hand with O guage, a local shop within walking distance of my house sells mostly O guage and large scale. He did great for years as MTH and Lionel revived interest in high rail, now he says business is only 1/4 of what it was 3 years ago. YET, most of the special orders in his "special order pickup pile" are modeler type stuff (like the undecorated cars I order) in HO - imagine that.
He will tell you straight out that those who where buying O guage are now saying "I don't have that kind of money" since the market went down, etc. OR, they have simply lost interest, OR, because of prices, they look for bigger discounts than he can give.
Collectors come and go, sell off collections, move on to other interests, but modelers often plod along for a lifetime, never "dumping" their stuff on the used market until they die and spending a steady amount every year - for decades. I've worked in hobby shops starting at age 14 and been active in this hobby since age 12 - that was 41 years ago, I've seen a little of what goes on.
John, I have no problem with how/what you model, but whether you realize it or not, you come across very negative toward those of us who's modeling interests are more "model building" centered. You have no interest in building rolling stock kits, etc - that's fine - I have no interest in entertaining children with big flashy locos with sound and smoke - that should be fine too.
ATLANTIC CENTRAL UP 4-12-2The dealers have been sitting on them for many years--which is one reason for the current preorder system. John, Bachmann has not gone the preoder route, nor have they made ANY indication that they will or need to. Star Hobby and Peach Creek and others have tons of it and are selling tons of it. WHY? Because it is well detailed, runs good and is AFFORDABLE. And most of it makes good kitbash fodder for modelers and most of it represents "everyday" railroading, something a great many of us are interested in. When I was recently at Peach Creek picking up my latest two Bachmann locos, they were busy packing orders and answer phones and several went out the door as well. If this hobby becomes nothing but high priced RTR "HO Highrail" it really will be the death of it. BECAUSE when those type of people "get bored" with their expensive toys, there will be nothing left for the modelers. I've seen this first hand with O guage, a local shop within walking distance of my house sells mostly O guage and large scale. He did great for years as MTH and Lionel revived interest in high rail, now he says business is only 1/4 of what it was 3 years ago. YET, most of the special orders in his "special order pickup pile" are modeler type stuff in HO - imagine that. He will tell you straight out that those who where buying O guage are now saying "I don't have that kind of money" since the market went down, etc. OR, they have simply lost interest, OR, because of prices, they look for bigger discounts than he can give. Collectors come and go, sell off collections, move on to other interests, but modelers often plod along for a lifetime, never "dumping" their stuff on the used market until they die and spending a steady amount every year - for decades. I've worked in hobby shops starting at age 14 and been active in this hobby since age 12 - that was 41 years ago, I've seen a little of what goes on. Sheldon
I've seen this first hand with O guage, a local shop within walking distance of my house sells mostly O guage and large scale. He did great for years as MTH and Lionel revived interest in high rail, now he says business is only 1/4 of what it was 3 years ago. YET, most of the special orders in his "special order pickup pile" are modeler type stuff in HO - imagine that.
Surprisingly, I have to agree with your sentiments about hi rail. As someone who regularly buys O gauge items, its a little frustrating to see the prices go so out of sight simply because of all the bells and whistles and other gizmos. Look at Lionel's Vision line products, around $1500 for the Pennsy CC2, its fairly detailed, but not on par with brass. It costs so much simply because of all of the new smoke features and the moving bell, and of course its Legacy equipped.
Other examples are the Lionel M1b $1300, the vision line Hudson (at least $1700 I think), station sounds dining cars which run $250 (for a single very toy like car with sound mind you).
Life is short, and I don't have that kind of money to spend on all of those gadgets, and even if I did, I'm not sure that I would want to. (I'm not knocking those who do, but its not my cup of tea.)
Its fun to run maybe 1 or 2 high end lionel engines with sound or smoke, but after that, you are right it gets boring. These things are loud, they take up the whole basement, and I believe they are more for a model railroad club than for home use, but thats just me. I will never collect Lionel, in O gauge I think there is too much focus on collecting, instead of scenery and actually building something that looks like a railroad. This is just my experience. I don't want shelves and shelves of $1500 locos and passenger car sets.
And to tell you the truth, I'm starting to feel this way about HO as well. I want highly detailed items for reasonable prices, and I don't want every single engine I have to be equipped with sound or smoke.
ATLANTIC CENTRAL John, I have no problem with how/what you model, but whether you realize it or not, you come across very negative toward those of us who's modeling interests are more "model building" centered. You have no interest in building rolling stock kits, etc - that's fine - I have no interest in entertaining children with big flashy locos with sound and smoke - that should be fine too. Sheldon
Wow, ok, I was certainly not intending to be "negative" toward "modelers", only have shared some of the "facts" or perhaps, more correctly, "information" passed along to me by my favorite dealer. The facts, in his opinion, were that undecorated really doesn't sell very well anymore--though he'd be glad to order undecorated XYZ for anyone who really wants it, he will not be stocking it as a regular item.
As you and others have chosen to point out, there are other dealers who still do cater to that niche--and that is fine.
But it seems to me that some of the modelers are over-exaggerating the number of people who really want to buy undecorated. Just because a number of (perhaps) the most vocal people on internet train forums want something to be so does not mean that it actually IS so for the other group of customers who choose not to post on internet train forums.
Finally, I have always considered myself a "modeler" because I am active in modeling some things--just not in the same manner as some of you. To me, the collector has always been the person who buys, stores, perhaps doesn't even display his trains, but most often never actually runs them--or indeed, often never runs them more than one test run when they are new. And I have perceived a lot of negativity from those who consider themselves to be "the real modelers" vs. those who buy a higher percentage of RTR (perhaps because they don't have time or patience, or for other reasons). For example--I never mentioned "hi-rail" in any of my posts yet a certain segment of HO modelers choose to lump me in with that particular crowd.
Regarding other posts about this hobby dying off--my favorite dealer has lost as many as 7 regular customers in one month due to their death, and will tell you he's not seeing that many new customers replacing the regulars who die off. That's anecdotal, non-statistically significant, but nevertheless, is...
I did not mean to say or imply that Bachmann implemented or was considering a pre-order system--but the gobs of legacy Bachmann product remaining out there in some dealers' inventory is exactly the reason that other importers/manufacturers have chosen to adopt a pre-order only system.
UP 4-12-2 I did not mean to say or imply that Bachmann implemented or was considering a pre-order system--but the gobs of legacy Bachmann product remaining out there in some dealers' inventory is exactly the reason that other importers/manufacturers have chosen to adopt a pre-order only system. John
Which is exactly the reason there is the squawking about the prices going up and up and up!! I do not see the HUMONGOUS piles of Bachmann locomotives sitting in the LHS's up here--you may see them there---but we don't---
That makes no sense, why would one manufacturer base his business on his perception of how well or poorly another manufacturer is doing?
I shop is several shops with large Bachmann inventories, but I know for a fact they sell large volumes of it. They CHOOSE to have big inventories BECAUSE they want to have a wide selection of items even while some items are "in between" production runs. Its called investing in your business.
I do realize not every shop is in a position to do this, but that does not make it wrong or bad business for those who can.
These shops buy direct, in large quantities and sell at the lowest price ALL the time to insure the kind of volume to support their large inventories. When a new item comes out from Bachmann, it is 35% to 40% off, just like all the other Bachmann in their stores.
Sure, do a few items sit a little, yes, that is NORMAL in retail. BUT by having that kind of selection keeps people coming back because they know they can get what they want. I don't go to stores that don't have INVENTORY - I can special order without leaving the house. Likely why I don't shop at your friend's shop.
AGAIN, I managed a train department in a full line hobby shop in the early 80's, and we saw this comming then. All of it, the expanded selection of products, the discounting, the China production. And we knew that only by being big, buying direct, and have a SUPER sized store with a super selection at the right price, would any brick and mortar store survive. And it would likely need mailorder too.
I have no sympathy for dealers who stagnated and failed to see the changes in the market and adapt.
As for the "highrail" thing, I, coined the name "HO Highrail" to discribe the new MTH, BLI type products with smoke, sound, station announcements, working class lights, etc. Smoke and station announcements are toy like features in my view. Sound in HO or N, do to its poor audio quality is nearly as toy like to my ears. And, the scale might be smaller, but the modeling style is the same, build a layout but run out of the box, expensive, elaberate models of only the "famous" locomotives from every/any era, railroad or locale, often all together at the same time - like the classic large Lionel layout. That may or may not discribe you, but it is clear it describes a lot of people in the hobby today, even in the smaller scales. And that is fine, just don't expect the rest of us to "imbrace" all this high priced product that suits that kind of modeling, or the toy like features like "station announcements".
That's what that reference was about. and those features have driven up prices - prices I won't pay for toy features I don't want.
And, today I think I fixed the BLI Heavy Mike that they don't have parts for. After requartering all four drivers and working on the valve gear it actually ran reasonably well today, no thanks to their parts department or their quality control. glad it was bought real cheap. Never had to do that to a Bachmann.
This is interesting--maybe we are arguing over specific localities LHS's rather than a general overview of it? The ones I have around here seem to have NO problem at all with oversupply of Bachmann locomotives---they seem to have an undersupply here--due to the popularity of it--
John---I am wondering why there should be a problem in oversupply if the LHS is having issues keeping them in stock. Why should everything be done in the pre-order route anyways? I am not surprised that the cost of the storage of these things has become an issue---this is due to the problem of the bean counter having the attitude of everything being a cost--to the point that we now have internet based "stores" being run in the basement of a house wherein the stock has to be ordered from Walthers or Horizon then you may finaly get it--mmmmm---kind of useful here--
Well, engines that sit unsold for years are usually considered dead inventory--and whether or not one chooses to assign a cost to them, there is a cost. The money invested in that dead inventory is not being turned over, reinvested, and made into any kind of new profit. It is a dead cost, sitting there, month after month--a virtual loss.
A local train store in my area is sitting on multiple original 1980's run Atlas HO Alco Century diesels--with the Kato drive--brand new in the yellow and white boxes.
He is also sitting on a few brand new Bachmann Spectrum steamers--at significantly higher prices than some big mail order places have on them.
He is also sitting on a bunch of LGB large scale engines--brand new in the box.
What happened between the 1980's and today is that many distributors stopped borrowing money to finance large runs of locomotives--they reduced their orders with each successive run--and the runs got much smaller--then many (but as Sheldon has pointed out, not all) manufacturer/importers put the current pre-order system in place perhaps partly as a result--and because they didn't want to be stuck with inventory.
It is not my favorite sales model; I'm not advocating it; it is just the reality we live with.
Some dealers have been stuck with inventory. Their desire to get some kind of mark-up and not lose money blowing it out at a loss means it continues to sit--unsold.
My favorite, larger train store has a simple buying system now: they get 2 of every Atlas diesel, and only more than that if there are pre-orders for more.
As Pacific Western Rail Services has pointed out: If it doesn't sell within about 2 months of hitting American shores, it is considered "dead" and becomes much less likely to sell after that. That is a generalization, and certainly not applicable everywhere or for all. There will always be those few people who "miss" an announcement and try to find an item after the 2 months. But they are considered to be a small minority.
Bachmann is the largest importer with arguably the deepest pockets--they can best afford to do things closer to "the old way".
John,
Having run my share of a hobby shop, and several other businesses as well, I don't disagree with any of that in theory.
A few basic points however. In the retailing of any product that has "companion products" associated with each sale (I.E. Hobbies, tools, electronics, etc), it is likley better to look at overall turnover rates rather than individual product turnover rates.
If a product sells AT ALL, and it completes the servicablity/selection of your inventory, and your overall cash turnover rate is acceptable, than you NEED that product on your shelves. Otherwise you will likely loose customers do to your inabilty to serve their special needs at some point.
Truely dead inventory should be moved out at some point, but, if an item is a non mover for you because you did not buy it at the right price and therefore your price is too high, that is a problem YOU created by not being a good businessman.
UP 4-12-2 He is also sitting on a few brand new Bachmann Spectrum steamers--at significantly higher prices than some big mail order places have on them. He is also sitting on a bunch of LGB large scale engines--brand new in the box. What happened between the 1980's and today is that many distributors stopped borrowing money to finance large runs of locomotives--they reduced their orders with each successive run--and the runs got much smaller--then many (but as Sheldon has pointed out, not all) manufacturer/importers put the current pre-order system in place perhaps partly as a result--and because they didn't want to be stuck with inventory.
The discounting thing did not happen overnight. It was risky in the first place to buy Bachmann from Walthers or some other distributor and put it on your shelves at 10-20% off when big retailers all over are selling it for 40% off, because they buy direct. That was the mistake.
If you can't run with the big boys stay on the porch. Customers do not understand the distribution channels and markups, all they know is the big shop down the street has a lower price, you must be trying to rip them off asking so much more.
So is it hard to be a little guy in the hobby business anymore - sure it is - but that has nothing to do with the "preorder business model" or the over duplication of efforts by these manufacturers.
Even if I was inclined to preorder, I'm still going with the big guy with the lower price. I have a pocket full of credit cards and he will ship it right to my door when the boat lands. Preorders do NOTHING good for small shops.
As I have said before, I knew in 1980 that small shops would be out of the picture before long. If you are in this business today and are not buying most of your inventory direct, you are going to fail - distributors are dead - the few that remain just don't know it yet.
Bachmann has become their own distributor, and so has Athearn, Intermountain, Branchline and a host of others. AND, so has Walthers for the most part. The "distributor" side of Walthers is almost gone. Most of what they sell is their sourced product, they are only still in the distribution business by tradition and default.
And the hobby is better off without distributors.
A mutual friend of ours who owns a shop down here simply goes on line and knows what Bachmann has, when its comming and orders what he needs, just like a distributor. He got me two Bachmann locos that he was out of in only two weeks time - direct from Bachmann - his price 38% off retail.
If you can't sell Bachmann at those prices, you can't sell it. I won't pay more, I don't know why anyone would.
Two other thoughts:
One, I don't know that Bachmann is the largest importer. Kader may be the largest manufacturer at this point, but I suspect in both dollars and items, Athearn and Walthers are bigger than Bachmann in the North American market.
Two, thinking about all your responses on this and similar topics, I have to ask a question. What kind of money are you paying for all these new locos you have been buying? Meaning are you paying retail? 20% off, 30% off, more?
I don't buy much BLI, mainly because not that much of it interests me, but what I have bought from BLI/PCM has all been bought at at least 25% off, most a lot more off than that.
I have a lot of Bachmann and Proto - all bought at 25-40% below retail.
And lots of Athearn - new and old, all bought at 20-25% below retail.
These companies have established "street" prices for their products by virtue of their wholesale pricing policies. Paying more is foolish.
The new wave is not preorder, it is direct distribution and putting the distributor markup back in the customers pocket. Athearn and Bachmann are leading the way, and there are signs that even Walthers gets it.
You know Sheldon, I went back to your original post, and I don't think that there is any discussion or points that will give you a satisfactory answer.
I've not been in the hobby business directly so frankly, I'm not going to comment on the changes over the last 30 years since every industry has changed in the last 30 years and as can be seen in a variety of businesses from car dealers to grocers to gas/service stations, the game has changed. Successful businessmen adapt and overcome.
As for the original premise, I got that same email from Trainworld. I even looked online at trainworldonline.com. My personal opinion was that although the K-4 was tempting, it still wasn't worth dropping $200+ on given that it's unlettered, I have 4 Bachmann K-4's already, and I'm using those as my "test" work for installing sound/DCC. If I wanted another K-4, I could buy and install the sound card for about $120 with a $65.00 base K-4 from Bachmann. Gross we're talking about an equivalent expenditure of money. It's a split decision there on my end.
As for the E-units they had on sale, I looked at those and none of the road names are one's I remotely model or were undecorated. I have enough "projects" so I don't view dropping $110.00 on one of the A-units, stripping the paint, repainting, and retailing to be a good use of my money. If one matched my road names modeled, or even remotely ran near my modeled roads, I'd be tempted.
Some of the things you are stating are a Catch-22 in terms of not liking the "Hi-Rail" aspect of the hobby but none of the items left, except 1 K-4 and 2 N&W J's seem to fit into the Lionel Hi-Rail type of modeling. Instead, they were obscure names like Gulf Mobile or undecorateds.
I'm aware of Trainworld but frankly, I've never ordered from them. I tried to check whether they had an item in stock some time ago, got some bad customer service, and I've never bothered calling back. You'll notice though, that MB Klein is out of their K-4's the last time I looked, for both Bachmann and BLI. Just some more food for thoughts from one modeler to another. All of us have our opinions but each opinion is neither right nor wrong.
blownout cylinder This is interesting--maybe we are arguing over specific localities LHS's rather than a general overview of it? The ones I have around here seem to have NO problem at all with oversupply of Bachmann locomotives---they seem to have an undersupply here--due to the popularity of it-- John---I am wondering why there should be a problem in oversupply if the LHS is having issues keeping them in stock. Why should everything be done in the pre-order route anyways? I am not surprised that the cost of the storage of these things has become an issue---this is due to the problem of the bean counter having the attitude of everything being a cost--to the point that we now have internet based "stores" being run in the basement of a house wherein the stock has to be ordered from Walthers or Horizon then you may finaly get it--mmmmm---kind of useful here--
But everything is a cost, Barry. The real problem with beancounters is that they're blind to the aspects of business that don't readily fit onto balance sheet or profit & loss statement. Or, to put it more succinctly, they don't understand the non-quantitative aspects of business. Of course, there is another side to that, the people who haven't a clue as to business finances, but that's another topic.
As for the basement Internet stores, they're trying to run those in a similar manner to the just-in-time inventory systems of some of the larger and more famous manufacturers (Toyota comes to mind here) where stuff comes into one end of the bulding and exits the building (as cars in Toyota's case). Problem is, JIT doesn't work with the relatively low volume and fluctuating demand patterns of the model railroad market (actually a lot of little sub-markets, but that's a topic for another time).
Minimizing inventory carrying costs has been a goal in retail for quite a while. Wal-Mart's pretty good at it. Stuff comes into one of their distribution centers and is almost immediately routed to stores that are just about to run out of this, that or the other but for the just-in-time arrival of a shipment. WMT has decades of experience fine-tuning their distribution channel. Unfortunately, demand in our hobby is lumpy and low volume and is not predictable to the degree that high volume turnover is. It's too bad, but that's the way it is. Some hobby shops are saddled with a type of inventory one wag labeled "FISH" (first in, still here). Even the really good ones have some FISH inventory, they're just better at minimizing it than others.
In a perfect world, someone would announce a new product that I can't live without with a target arrival date 6 months down the line. I would order one and start saving my money for it at a rate that would allow me to pay for it in 6 months when it was due. At the end of six months I would call my local dealer to see if the item had arrived and, upon being told it was being unpacked as we speak, would rush down to get it. I would pay my dealer and walk off with this wondrous thing. My dealer would not have to even put the thing on display and would have the cash to pay his supplier immediately under standard commercial terms (i..e 2% 10, net 30). Life would be beautiful and there would be smiles all around. Unfortunately, it doesn't work that way.