I know this is a well discussed issue, but yesterday I recieved an e-mail from Train world about closeouts of BLI items.
Now at closeout prices a large selection of BLI EMD E units and several steam locos, amoung them N&W J's and PRR K4's.
All locos produced in large qauntities by other manufacturers over the last 10-15 years.
And, in a recent trip to a LHS that sells a lot of Bachmann at good prices, some versons of N&W J's could be had at blowout prices.
So if there is so much "demand" for more of the same, or "new" versions with DCC and sound, why are these locos not sold out?
Surely most everyone who wants these locos knows about a big, low price, mail order and brick and mortar retailer like Train World?
Could it be most everyone who wanted an EMD E unit already bought them from Proto2000 long before BLI brought them out?
Could it be the Proto2000 model is more detailed and less expensive?
Could it be most who wanted a N&W J are happy with the Bachmann model (OK we know a few who are not) and the Bachmann price?
Could it be all the PRR fans have all the K4's they could ever use? Even though the rest of us are hard pressed to even have a non PRR 4-6-2 on our layouts?
Could it be DCC and sound is not as compelling/popular as some think? Or maybe many are willing to install their own decoders in those older Proto's/Bachmann's they bought?
Could it be the manufacturers have no idea what the "market" is but they just keep aiming at one part of it, fragmenting it even more and driving down their own volume?
What could it be?
Sheldon
Are you taking over Philosophy Friday this week, Sheldon?
https://tstage9.wixsite.com/nyc-modeling
Time...It marches on...without ever turning around to see if anyone is even keeping in step.
I think you may be barking up the wrong tree to some extent. Every iteration of equipment that has come out has had improvements over what was previously available. I don't play the game of newer and better as cost is a major factor to me but my blue box F units have been retired because they don't measure up to what I am seeing elsewhere. If Trainworld said, "we have seven of these and four of those" etc. it would have clarified how many are involved in the sale. Capital tied up in non-selling stock is the bain of every business and subject to taxes at the end of the year. Most of the roads listed aren't major ones modeled by the majority. Why they got hidden on shelves or even if they didn't is a Trainworld issue not a manufacturing one. If I decide to make an engine and advertise it and you as a reseller decide to buy a number of them for your inventory then it was you who guessed wrong on the demand. My demand was satisfied and thank you for your business. I suppose resellers could demand the government write a law saying if they can't sell all they ordered the manufacturer has to take the product back but nobody holds a gun to their head in the first place.
Seems to me a couple of years ago there were at least four companies making a UP Challenger model in HO. Would be nice to see say an NP Challenger as a change of pace; not everyone wants to model the UP. Instead of doing another variation of the NYC Hudson, maybe a CP "Royal" Hudson?? I've wondered sometimes too if the number of N&W models available isn't rather high compared to number of modellers of the railroad. I mean, are there really so many more N&W modellers than say Great Northern modellers that it makes sense to have three companies making models of the N&W "J" Northern, but no GN Northerns (or Pacifics, or Mountains)??
Train World is one of the few remaining hobby shop outlets that can afford to buy a given item in any quantity (obviously also at a better discount than is offered to smaller dealers). Thus, they often end up with a significant percentage of leftovers as initial sales peter out. This was dramatically illustrated with a number of different company's nicely operating HO diesels that were over produced back in the 90's. Their eventual selling price was well below cost and some still couldn't even be given away in the end . That event was what sounded the death knell of large runs and their replacement with the limited runs we know today.
I agree with the take that, even today, some of the manufacturers are somewhat over estimating the size of the market, especially in regard to demand for items that recently had already been offered by other companies, or offered simultaneously. Even the collector's market can become saturated. This is why there tends to be a race between companies to bring their model in first in case of duplication. The outfit that's #2 can lose big time.
If they are not in fact already doing so, all the manufacturers will soon be ordering nothing beyond the absolute minimum run figures for each new item (which seems to be around or a little over 2,000 units). They'll likely also be battling with the producers in China to reduce that minimum order figure, because the retailers aren't going to be willing to keep getting stuck with excess product that can only be sold at a loss by them.
The DC vs. DCC question is going to have a simpler answer. Look for all future runs to come in as dual mode DCC, with sound probably as standard and no choice of sound/no sound. It's the most logical approach in a shrinking market and the one that both simplifies manufacturing and provides the highest profit return for the manufacturer.
CNJ831
Neither BLI themselves or Factory Direct Trains ( a very close cousin web retailer) seem to be liquidating these models so I suspect that CNJ is correct that this might simply be an overstock issue at this particular retailer.
Simon Modelling CB&Q and Wabash See my slowly evolving layout on my picturetrail site http://www.picturetrail.com/simontrains and our videos at http://www.youtube.com/user/MrCrispybake?feature=mhum
Sheldon,There is one piece of critical information that you are missing. Namely, you do not know the production numbers of anything you've listed. For all we know, they have made tens of thousands of N&W J's, EMD E-units, and PRR K4's and sold 99% of them with the remainder being blown out at "give-away" prices long after they have made a nice profit from the production run. Meanwhile, the other types of engines that are sold out and gone months or years before may only have been produced in extremely limited numbers by comparison.
For example, do you really think that Atlas made just as many Providence & Worcester B23-7's as ATSF B23-7's in the same production run? I don't. There are far, far more ATSF modelers than P&W modelers, and it only makes sense that Atlas would modify their production numbers accordingly. I'm sure it's no different between items like you've listed above.
But as for actual numbers? We just don't know and we'll never know because production numbers are the most closely guarded secret in the hobby. I have heard about models in pre-production sometimes years in advance of the model's eventual entry onto the market, but I've never ever heard a single confirmed production amount from any of the "big" hobby manufacturers (like Atlas, Athearn, P2K, etc.). Overland is about the only one that gives out any production numbers (it's printed on the bottom of each model, as in "5 of 100"), and the Brown Book gives production numbers for all the old brass, too. But in the plastic business, one cannot confirm production numbers. They won't tell.
I can tell you that when my club does a custom run of cars from Atlas, Athearn, etc., we run 300 to 500 cars. I know the NHRHTA's new HH660 model from Atlas will be 300. I know the minimum for a custom Walthers car is 1000. But numbers of plastic production runs might as well be locked up in Fort Knox.
Paul A. Cutler III
Maybe the original prices have nothing to do with cost.
Maybe Train World and BLI still make a nice profit at "Blowout" prices.
Maybe initial sales are just icing on the cake and closeout sales are the real money maker.
When I see places like Micro-Mark regularly selling certain lines at around 40-50% off list, it's hard to believe that MSRP for those lines is anything other than a fantasy.
Enjoy
Paul
tstage Are you taking over Philosophy Friday this week, Sheldon?
"The true sign of intelligence is not knowledge but imagination."-Albert Einstein
http://gearedsteam.blogspot.com/
Let's consider Why the repitition happens. You want to become a model railroading manufacturer for whatever reason. You can announce that you will produce The Ingalls diesel of which one was made and sold to the GM&O. You will probably sell one to each of the three people modeling the GM&O and about ten to people in an undecorated version who want one for the private road name model railroad. You will also go broke very quickly. So where will we start. How about we build a better whatever (Insert one of the engines produced in multiplicity). First you come up with a couple of hundred thousand dollars for die work. Then you find a manufacturer and work out all the problems and make the improvements you think will sell. Oh and, by the way, all this needs to be secret or someone like MTH will announce they are going to do it just to tie up some of the market. Two to three years later you can hit the market with your product. Success? Maybe not because you didn't know another company or two or three was on the same track. So suddenly your market for x number of engines is now half or less because others have/had designs on the same market. How can you prevent this? Well I suppose collusion could work where you all discuss what you are doing and hope others will give you free reign to do what you want. It is illegal though and I want all the market not just part. After all I know mine is superior, You can establish your superiority. Stewart is a good example to my way of thinking. You can offer excellent service or replacement (P2K). And lastly you can build a better product. But what defines better? Is it the slope of the nose on an F unit? Is it DCC installed with sound at a lower price? Is it price? I as this secretive manufacturer trust my opinion and those I trust and run with it. This is one of the reasons MTH doesn't get it in HO with their unique DCC system. Competing in the Lionel market with no competition in DCC got rave reviews and lots of business. We'll just move this over to HO and take over the market because we know all about how it will be received. Wrong and a bad case of group think without knowing the market. Most manufacturers probably risk a great deal to bring new products to the market place. Modelers are alway clamoring for something unique until it comes out. I'd bet that all that pent up demand for an E6 and a DL109 was more hot air than anything. Some products are disasters and tie up needed capital for years until they sell. I think I will make a better F unit I know they are selling. What! another F unit. Yep and it won't be the last one either.
Trainworld is large enough that I am sure they can lose a box or two and find it later. At least that was their story a while back when I ordered something and they had a note about another item to push if the had any orders for the first item (the extra item was supposed to be long gone). Needless to say I bought all I could afford of the extra item.
Paul3 But as for actual numbers? We just don't know and we'll never know because production numbers are the most closely guarded secret in the hobby. I have heard about models in pre-production sometimes years in advance of the model's eventual entry onto the market, but I've never ever heard a single confirmed production amount from any of the "big" hobby manufacturers (like Atlas, Athearn, P2K, etc.). Overland is about the only one that gives out any production numbers (it's printed on the bottom of each model, as in "5 of 100"), and the Brown Book gives production numbers for all the old brass, too. But in the plastic business, one cannot confirm production numbers. They won't tell.
Come on, Paul, you know that's not true, at least in one instances and that I've pointed this out to you here on several occasions! The New Haven Historical and Technical Association, on their website in which you are a very frequent poster, listed for all to see the production numbers for the NH DL-109 in the first run, which their tech group had given advice on to the manufacturer. That first run consisted of two gross of each of the two NH road numbers. Two other road names were run in that batch; I think they were the Santa Fe and the GM&O.
Now the NH was THE big user of DL-109s by far, although the Santa Fe is certainly a more popular road name. Still, if LL did only around 600 units in NH colors, would they really have done more for the railroads that never mustered more one or two such units? That solidly implies to me that the first run didn't consist of more than 2,000 units. While there might have been 10,000 unit runs from the early 1990's on back (and thus resulting gluts in the marketplaces in the 90's), it is utter foolishness to propose that they are being done today. If they were that large, how do you explain that new models don't generally remain widely available in the marketplace longer than a month, or two, these days?
Similarly, there apparently was such initial demand for the NH DL-109s that the locos sold out in less than a single week! After that, scarcity caused some to sell for $300+ (retail was $75!) on eBay. However, when the second run appeared, retailers couldn't get rid of the darn things! The market saturated at just over 600 units for the NH. Check and see just how long the later ones hung around in Walthers.
When you have a situation where there is little or no stocking done by the manufacturer, then you do not do very large runs because you want to get rid of them all quickly. The whole concept in the model railroad industry these days is for the quickest turnover possible of you latest product, so you can get your money and plan for the next model ASAP.
ATLANTIC CENTRAL Now at closeout prices a large selection of BLI EMD E units and several steam locos, amoung them N&W J's and PRR K4's. All locos produced in large qauntities by other manufacturers over the last 10-15 years.Could it be all the PRR fans have all the K4's they could ever use? Even though the rest of us are hard pressed to even have a non PRR 4-6-2 on our layouts? Could it be the manufacturers have no idea what the "market" is but they just keep aiming at one part of it, fragmenting it even more and driving down their own volume? Sheldon
Let's back up a minute. What are the most famous locomotives in the model railroad world? I submit the legendary model locomotives are (in no particular order):
There might be a couple of inclusions/exclusions to the list but I submit that all but the rankest beginner knows the basic outline of each of those locomotives. And for the less experienced, they probably know the outline of very few others.Study the list carefully and you can come to several conclusions:
For the above reasons, each of these will sell well out of proportion to prototype popularity and layout usefulness. Which is why so many are made by several model locomotive manufacturers - often to the point of market saturation and beyond.my thoughts, your choices
Fred W
fwrightFor the above reasons, each of these will sell well out of proportion to prototype popularity and layout usefulness. Which is why so many are made by several model locomotive manufacturers - often to the point of market saturation and beyond.
This is very true---but does it have to be?
Why not think "OTHER" than the usual go-round? I'm suggesting that it does not have to be this way every dang time--I get the point that big sells but herein lies the issue. The collector willl eventually stop buying the big boy challenger FEF's and then what? We are now technically at market saturation------it is time to think "OTHER"---
Any argument carried far enough will end up in Semantics--Hartz's law of rhetoric Emerald. Leemer and Southern The route of the Sceptre Express Barry
I just started my blog site...more stuff to come...
http://modeltrainswithmusic.blogspot.ca/
Hmmm...looking at the original premise, and then at Fred's thoughts and list, BLI seems to be doing a fine job of widening our choices. AT&SF 4-8-4, Y6b, PRR J1, T1, M1, and K4 (..oops, strike that last one...), I1, Q2, UP TTT-6, some switchers and high nosed whatevers, SD-40 variants, heavy and light Mikes, A Class, AC variants, NYC Niagara and Mohawk...just a sampling of how this company has tried to stretch the market a bit.
-Crandell
That's true, but incomplete. The full question is OTHER WHAT? A nice layout sized steam engine is a 1050 class ATSF 2-6-2. The steam era Santa Fe freaks would love 'em (until everyone except Jared Harper's got his fill - I think Jared's already's bagged his limit, but with brass). How many people who don't worship at the Santa Fe altar will buy one even if they're offered undecorated and with optional details for coal AND oil burners.
Let me throw this out. How about those that have done USRA engines make more of them, but detailed for for some individual roads as with the Spectrum C&O J-2 variant, which is a USRA heavy 4-8-2 underneath. Bachmann's already done a good job with the Russian Decapod, producing no fewer than 5 variants that are close, if not dead on correct to the prototypes for which they're detailed. Spectrum's also done that to some extent with the USRA light 2-10-2 although they seem obsessed with Southern valve gear as does Walthers with the heavy version. How about samples with disc main driver, Delta trailing truck (with or without booster), maybe a Vanderbilt tender.
A USRA light 4-8-2 is nice. How about one detailied like this? http://www.yesteryeardepot.com/NCSL561.JPG IIRC, the 1923 builds were also equipped with Worthington BL type feedwater heater. The Vanderbilt tender is very close to the oil version of Spectrum's medium Vanderbilt although these were coal burners.
A Southern Ts-1. Same design, different details. http://www.yesteryeardepot.com/SOU6495.JPG
New Haven: http://abpr.railfan.net/abprphoto.cgi?//march99/03-29-99/nh3341.jpg
L&N: http://abpr.railfan.net/abprphoto.cgi?//june99/06-18-99/lxn415.jpg
Just a thought. Bachmann could lose the Baker valve gear on its Spectrum 2-8-0, change out the cylinider saddle to the type used by UP and SP 2-8-0's and come very close to all those lovely Harriman 2-8-0's with Stephenson valve gear.
I see that BLI is releasing the modernized ATSF 3800 class 2-10-2 with the drifting valves, LFM disc main drivers and other details that the Santa Fe cognoscenti have screamed about since the as-built version was released several years ago. Maybe someone's started to listen. Don't release all new engines, use the basics of what you already have and change the details.
Amdre
CNJ wrote:
2). Even if all the DL109 production runs had been posted on the NH forum, that's still not a 1st source material. If you can get Athearn's John Engstrom or Atlas' Rob Pisani or whoever worked at LL pre-Walthers to post production numbers, then I won't question it. Until then, the NHRHTA is at best a 2nd source...and who knows where they got that information?
3). The NHRHTA NH Forum dates back to 6/23/03 in their archives. I found a thread reference on 9/8/03 about the NH DL109 that sold on eBay for $306 (another thread refers to this madness saying that they were available "less than 1 year ago"). IIRC, the P1K DL109's came out around January 2003 as I was able to get my first one at the Fall River (MA) Show (which is always in January). Therefore, it appears that the DL109's 1st run actually predates the current NHRHTA Forum (before then, IIRC, all archived posts vanished in a forum software change-over, or even earlier were on the old long gone RR.net).
4). The very first run of LLP1K DL109's were for: ATSF, NH, GM&O, CNW, SOU, MILW & RI.
5). Perhaps you are thinking of the 2nd run of LLP1K NH DL109's? This was a special custom run made for Hobbytyme Distributers. In a post dated 10/2/03 on the NH Forum, it was said that Hobbytyme had Life-Like run custom DL109's strictly for their use in 4 NH numbers: the original run's 0704 and 0709 (dumb move), plus two new numbers 0700 and 0702. It was said by "John B" that they would be making 250 of each NH number for a total of 1000 NH units (Page 6 of Archive #1). IIRC, Hobbytyme also had a custom run of ATSF units as well (and perhaps GM&O? I was thinking SOU).
6). Since it certainly appears that what you recall only refers to a custom run of models made for a specific distributer, it does not count as "real" production numbers. As I said in my 1st post, my club had a custom run of 500 Atlas cars, namely the 25,500g tanks. Does that mean that Atlas only made 500 of each other paint scheme? I don't think so. We asked for the minimum and that's 500 cars. They could have made thousands of the other non-custom 25,500g tanks for all we know. We still have no confirmed production numbers for any non-custom run in plastic.
It wasn't my point to say that manufacturers make tens of thousands of models or mere hundreds. My actual point is that we don't know, and we'll never know because they won't talk. Believe me. Not to drop names or anything, but I know a couple people in the business, and they won't tell me even after a lot of drinks at the bar.
Sheldon's point was to argue that since "big" & "popular" models are in the clearance bin, they aren't selling well at all and therefore manufacturers should step away from "big" & "popular" models and make "small" & "unpopular" engines that he wants them to make.
My counterpoint was that for all we know, they made a lot of these "big" & "popular" models and made a nice profit. These models in the clearance bins could be all that's left of a successful run. Meanwhile, the "small" & "unpopular" models could have been made in extremely limited numbers by comparison. Their absence from the clearance bin could mean that they made just enough of them to satisfy a small demand...or it might not. We just don't know.
IMHO, what I think happened is that LL made an equal number of DL109's in all paint schemes in the very 1st production run. NH fans being like we are, we scooped up all they had because the NH had 60 out of the 74 real DL109's ever made. To model NH mainlines from Dec. 1941 to the 1950's, you need DL109's. That's why they went fast and went for crazy amounts on eBay (three others went for well over $200 ea.). Meanwhile, other roads were plentiful (other than ATSF...that, too, went quick).
FYI: there was also a 3rd run that came out in NH in the warm orange and hunter green scheme.
Andre,While that's a good idea with the NH loco, but I'd love to see this from Bachmann Spectrum:
It's essentially the USRA Light 4-8-2 with a 6-axle Vandy tender and an Elesco and pilot mounted air pumps. Spectrum already makes the USRA Light 4-8-2 and sells a very close 6-axle Vandy tender (the coal bunker is about 3 feet too large, but it's not that noticable). I'm currently in the process of doing this conversion myself, but I'm having trouble locating the Cal-Scale air pumps I need.
Paul,
I'd have posted a pic of one with the Vanderbilt tender, but only went to sources I was completely familiar with and didn't find one.
A lot of resources are now in place where the manufacturers could make quite a number of variants of USRA engines that are railroad specific. For that matter, existing chassis could be used to make different models. There's no reason, for example, that BLI couldn't make, say, an SP F-3/4/5 using the ATSF or UP 2-10-2 mechanism as a starting point. The Reading T-1 chassis could be used as the starting point for a NC&STL J-3 or a Cotton Belt L-1. For that matter, a Pennsy K-4 mechanism could be used as the starting point for a lot of Pacifics (including maybe an NH I-4). Why re-invent the wheel? Bachmann Spectrum has done a fairly good of getting bang for buck out of their tooling, but it seems to me that more could be done in that regard.
Andre
Andre,For a NH Steam picture website, try:http://sites.google.com/site/nynhhsteam/
Every NH Steam Class of the 20th Century (and some from the 19th) is listed in alphabetical order from Class A (4-4-0) to Class Z (Bogies).
Paul3 CNJ wrote:Come on, Paul, you know that's not true, at least in one instances and that I've pointed this out to you here on several occasions! The New Haven Historical and Technical Association, on their website in which you are a very frequent poster, listed for all to see the production numbers for the NH DL-109 in the first run, which their tech group had given advice on to the manufacturer. That first run consisted of two gross of each of the two NH road numbers. Two other road names were run in that batch; I think they were the Santa Fe and the GM&O.1). It hasn't been several occasions because I have hardly debated you at all on production numbers. Mostly, it's been about other subjects (that we don't need to go into). There's no way that you have pointed out supposed DL109 production numbers 3 or more times to me because we're always talking about something else. 2). Even if all the DL109 production runs had been posted on the NH forum, that's still not a 1st source material. If you can get Athearn's John Engstrom or Atlas' Rob Pisani or whoever worked at LL pre-Walthers to post production numbers, then I won't question it. Until then, the NHRHTA is at best a 2nd source...and who knows where they got that information? 3). The NHRHTA NH Forum dates back to 6/23/03 in their archives. I found a thread reference on 9/8/03 about the NH DL109 that sold on eBay for $306 (another thread refers to this madness saying that they were available "less than 1 year ago"). IIRC, the P1K DL109's came out around January 2003 as I was able to get my first one at the Fall River (MA) Show (which is always in January). Therefore, it appears that the DL109's 1st run actually predates the current NHRHTA Forum (before then, IIRC, all archived posts vanished in a forum software change-over, or even earlier were on the old long gone RR.net). 4). The very first run of LLP1K DL109's were for: ATSF, NH, GM&O, CNW, SOU, MILW & RI. 5). Perhaps you are thinking of the 2nd run of LLP1K NH DL109's? This was a special custom run made for Hobbytyme Distributers. In a post dated 10/2/03 on the NH Forum, it was said that Hobbytyme had Life-Like run custom DL109's strictly for their use in 4 NH numbers: the original run's 0704 and 0709 (dumb move), plus two new numbers 0700 and 0702. It was said by "John B" that they would be making 250 of each NH number for a total of 1000 NH units (Page 6 of Archive #1). IIRC, Hobbytyme also had a custom run of ATSF units as well (and perhaps GM&O? I was thinking SOU). 6). Since it certainly appears that what you recall only refers to a custom run of models made for a specific distributer, it does not count as "real" production numbers. As I said in my 1st post, my club had a custom run of 500 Atlas cars, namely the 25,500g tanks. Does that mean that Atlas only made 500 of each other paint scheme? I don't think so. We asked for the minimum and that's 500 cars. They could have made thousands of the other non-custom 25,500g tanks for all we know. We still have no confirmed production numbers for any non-custom run in plastic. Now the NH was THE big user of DL-109s by far, although the Santa Fe is certainly a more popular road name. Still, if LL did only around 600 units in NH colors, would they really have done more for the railroads that never mustered more one or two such units? That solidly implies to me that the first run didn't consist of more than 2,000 units. While there might have been 10,000 unit runs from the early 1990's on back (and thus resulting gluts in the marketplaces in the 90's), it is utter foolishness to propose that they are being done today. If they were that large, how do you explain that new models don't generally remain widely available in the marketplace longer than a month, or two, these days? It wasn't my point to say that manufacturers make tens of thousands of models or mere hundreds. My actual point is that we don't know, and we'll never know because they won't talk. Believe me. Not to drop names or anything, but I know a couple people in the business, and they won't tell me even after a lot of drinks at the bar. Sheldon's point was to argue that since "big" & "popular" models are in the clearance bin, they aren't selling well at all and therefore manufacturers should step away from "big" & "popular" models and make "small" & "unpopular" engines that he wants them to make. My counterpoint was that for all we know, they made a lot of these "big" & "popular" models and made a nice profit. These models in the clearance bins could be all that's left of a successful run. Meanwhile, the "small" & "unpopular" models could have been made in extremely limited numbers by comparison. Their absence from the clearance bin could mean that they made just enough of them to satisfy a small demand...or it might not. We just don't know. Similarly, there apparently was such initial demand for the NH DL-109s that the locos sold out in less than a single week! After that, scarcity caused some to sell for $300+ (retail was $75!) on eBay. However, when the second run appeared, retailers couldn't get rid of the darn things! The market saturated at just over 600 units for the NH. Check and see just how long the later ones hung around in Walthers.Sigh. You know, John, sometimes you do have to re-check your sources before posting. As I said above, Hobbytyme had LL make 1000 NH DL109's just for them (250 in 4 numbers) according to "John B" on the NH Forum. And who knows how many NH DL109's were made in the 1st run? IMHO, what I think happened is that LL made an equal number of DL109's in all paint schemes in the very 1st production run. NH fans being like we are, we scooped up all they had because the NH had 60 out of the 74 real DL109's ever made. To model NH mainlines from Dec. 1941 to the 1950's, you need DL109's. That's why they went fast and went for crazy amounts on eBay (three others went for well over $200 ea.). Meanwhile, other roads were plentiful (other than ATSF...that, too, went quick). FYI: there was also a 3rd run that came out in NH in the warm orange and hunter green scheme.
Paul, I bow in acknowledgement of the fact that there were 6 and not 3 roadnames in the first run of DL-109s from LL. That isn't the way I recalled it and I was very much into NH at the time, so I usually paid special attention to any new offerings regarding them. On the other hand, checking the LL ads of the day indeed indicates the 6 roadnames in that 1st run to be correct.
However, the reference to the 2 gross per engine number, as cited on the NHH&TA forum by an official committee of that organization, most certainly referred to the 1st run and not any special run for Hobbytime. And I would question why the tech committee would cite a production number without honestly believing it to be correct. In spite of production numbers not being spread around as common knowledge, is doesn't require figures openly stated by a company's CEO to make very reasonable assumptions these days.
If somewhat less than 600 units per roadname were in the 1st run of the DL-109, that would put the maximum production run at about 3500 units, at most, since we don't know if the other roadnames were all run in numbers equal to the NH engines. And I'll bet they weren't, since all the other roads only mustered one or two units, total, compared with the NH's sixty, or so. Thus, this number of 3500 is still a very logical maximum number for any single run of any HO locomotive in recent years, especially considering the swiftness with which some have sold out. There definitely aren't the many hundreds of thousands of more-or-less serious modelers, or collectors, that would be needed to justify runs larger than this. And I strongly believe that current runs of "big and popular" steam aren't much more then 2/3's of the DL-109s 1st run figures were...maybe even less.
Let me point out that in today's market it would be reckless to do even modestly larger runs on pure speculation, especially when it is possible to easily do a second follow-up run within a year or two if demand warrants. This is why one does indeed sees certain locomotives re-run over and over - but only in small numbers that appear warranted by hobbyists' current demands.
You constantly see the manufacturers fishing around regarding what to make next with their pre-order system and the way several of the locomotive manufacturers operate today. On a number of occasions they've reported coming up short of needed numbers even for models that would seem almost a sure thing. That's highly suggestive that they are surviving only from one new model to the next. It seems likely that a single poor choice in just a 3500 unit run could spell disaster and might result in their overnight disappearance. I suspect that the only truly "large" locomotive manufacturer in the marketplace today immune to such a one time failure would be Bachmann.
CNJ,I was finally able to access the Internet Archive website just now (yesterday it was too slow for words). This is the original production run (available at www.archive.org, search for www.lifelikeproducts.com, pick the date July 31, 2003, then navigate to the P1K area).
ITEM #
ROADNAME AND NUMBER
PAINT SCHEME
The above chart is copied and pasted from the archived 2003 LL website. There are seven roadnames but only for 12 actual road numbers due to CNW and ATSF only having one DL109 A-unit each.
I'm sorry, but I'm going to have to ask for proof of this "double gross" of production per number for the above first run from anyone at the NHRHTA. And for what it's worth, the "NHRHTA Tech. Committee" consisted of only Rick Abramson (a committee of one) so it should make your search go faster. I think you're going to have trouble with that search because the NH Forum archives don't really go back far enough, and I've already gone over every page of NH Archive #1 and found only the 2nd run numbers.
A "reasonable assumption" is still an assumption. Again, we just don't know the real numbers. And even if you could find production numbers for LLP1K DL109's, how germaine can they be to Sheldon's original point? LLP1K DL109's came out seven years ago from a company that no longer exists. How does that have anything to do with whether or not today's manufacturers should be making more or fewer "big" & "popular" models?Paul A. Cutler III
ndbprrI think you may be barking up the wrong tree to some extent. Every iteration of equipment that has come out has had improvements over what was previously available. I don't play the game of newer and better as cost is a major factor to me but my blue box F units have been retired because they don't measure up to what I am seeing elsewhere.
Of course if you compare the 60+ year old tooling of the Athearn/Globe F7 to current F units, from Athearn Genesis or any of the others, it will be sub standard. BUT, that tooling was so good for its time, it took 40+ years for it to be seriously outdated. And as a "train set grade" product in the Athearn RTR line, with a few upgrades and a current drive it holds up pretty well still.
My BB F units are still on my layout. True, they have can motors in their 1980's drives, different wheel sets, the newset trucks with updated side frames, Walthers diesel dress up kits, Detail Associates MU hoses, American Limited close coupling and diaphragms and GSB cab interior kits - but they look just fine next to my Genesis, Intermountain and Proto2000 F units.
To say that each "new" release by company "B" is better than what company "A" released two years ago is non sense. The detail of a Proto2000 E unit is far superior to the much newer E units produced by Broadway Limited.
And, Proto2000 has ket up with offerings of DCC and sound, so the newer products from BLI have no edge there either.
On the topic of just this one group of locos, EMD E units, my view on BLI is "why did they bother?" - just to be a thorn in the side of LifeLike/Walthers? That is what I don't understand?
Note to all, I do not claim to have ALL the answers on this topic, and I got many of the responses I expected from the people I expected them from. Some need no response, some more I will respond to as time allows.
It is easy to single out a few examples on either side of this issue, the bigger questions are where is this industry going and will it serve the needs/wants of its consumers? I don't konw, but having been in business for my self most of my life, and having worked in the model train retail business, I think my insights may have some merrit.
simon1966 Neither BLI themselves or Factory Direct Trains ( a very close cousin web retailer) seem to be liquidating these models so I suspect that CNJ is correct that this might simply be an overstock issue at this particular retailer.
BLI no longer tells us what they have in stock - but we can likely assume they do not have any old production E units, K4's or N&W J's.
FDT dose not have them either - so they sold all of theirs - so what, how many were made, how many did BLI sell to FDT, how many to Train World? We don't know.
BUT in these days of internet, free long distance and credit cards, it would be a safe bet that most people who really want this stuff will find in the hands of whatever retailer has it. ESPECIALLY a big well advertised one like Train World.
So my question remains - could the market for these particular items be more than saturated? I think the answer is YES, dispite all the unanswered questions of production run sizes, number of hobbiest's vs number of collectors, etc, etc.
AND could the market for any number of other over produced and over duplicated items (regardless of the "size of steam loco" issue) be saturated? Keep in mind, although I sited an ad for a locomotive, this situation is not just about locomotives - even if they are the worst offending catigory.
Likely yes.
All you old timers like me, get out your Walthers catalog from 1980, compare the Athearn product line to the Roundhouse product line - look for duplication/overlap. I'll bet you run out of duplicated items before you run out of fingers and toes - those two old guys were smart, and were friends, unlike these guys running these companies today.
But what do I know........
Now that this is over with, no item in our hobby is ever over made, it is just a mater of price, that dose not mean a profit for the manufacturer just because of #'s. People are still buying original Varney stuff, only it has been relabeled.
CNJ831The DC vs. DCC question is going to have a simpler answer. Look for all future runs to come in as dual mode DCC, with sound probably as standard and no choice of sound/no sound. It's the most logical approach in a shrinking market and the one that both simplifies manufacturing and provides the highest profit return for the manufacturer.
If everything you say about the market is true, I have a better idea.
Make all the locos DC only, but with the provisions for sound and DCC to just "drop in" and sell DCC or DCC/sound upgrade kits.
This would keep prices low, expand the market to the widest range of customers, simplify production and lower inventory needs. Quality dealers could offer free or low cost installation of the upgrade kits for thier "plop and run" or "collector" customers who did not want to install the upgrades themselves.
AND, modelers yet to go DCC/sound would feel confortable that anything they invested in could be easily upgraded latter.
AND, with some planning, the number of upgrade kits could be reduced since many different locos could share them - Every E unit of any type would only need one. That same one might even be effective for other EMD models.
Admittedly such a plan might not show its benifits until fully implimented across an intire product line. But it is an idea - especially if the market really is shrinking. And it speaks to the question of "why is the market shrinking?"
Is the price of all this high tech driving some out of the hobby?
Paul3 It wasn't my point to say that manufacturers make tens of thousands of models or mere hundreds. My actual point is that we don't know, and we'll never know because they won't talk. Believe me. Not to drop names or anything, but I know a couple people in the business, and they won't tell me even after a lot of drinks at the bar. Sheldon's point was to argue that since "big" & "popular" models are in the clearance bin, they aren't selling well at all and therefore manufacturers should step away from "big" & "popular" models and make "small" & "unpopular" engines that he wants them to make. My counterpoint was that for all we know, they made a lot of these "big" & "popular" models and made a nice profit. These models in the clearance bins could be all that's left of a successful run. Meanwhile, the "small" & "unpopular" models could have been made in extremely limited numbers by comparison. Their absence from the clearance bin could mean that they made just enough of them to satisfy a small demand...or it might not. We just don't know.
PauL I agree, we don't know. But having worked in retail I know that anything you have to "blowout" did not make as much money as something you don't.
Maybe the manufactures did do very well, but SOMEONE did not when you see it new in the box at give away prices from a retailer or on Ebay, or were ever.
It's not about making what I want, I didn't bring up the "size and popularity issue" except to make the Pacific comment. And admit it, it makes no sense that the single most popular wheel arangement in passenger steam is so poorly represented in HO today - considering the other models out there in the last 10-15 years.
Like Barry and I have said over and over - variety MIGHT just actually GROW the market, and allow even bigger profits which would fuel more availablity and more variety, rather than everyone trying to cut each others throats selling UP Big Boys, PRR K4's and EMD F7's, etc, etc.
Paul3A "reasonable assumption" is still an assumption. Again, we just don't know the real numbers. And even if you could find production numbers for LLP1K DL109's, how germaine can they be to Sheldon's original point? LLP1K DL109's came out seven years ago from a company that no longer exists. How does that have anything to do with whether or not today's manufacturers should be making more or fewer "big" & "popular" models?
Interesting point this. My issue would be that if we do not know what the real numbers are we will stay at the level of assumption and hence anything will go. The argument here now seems to be that we are seeing what appears to be a saturation mark in the market right now. Whether we like it or not it remains that as long as those numbers remain top secret--and lets face it, the fact that we are seeing no one being forthright in terms of their sales figures here should tell us something--we will see this perception continue to exist.
I'm very willing to suggest therefore that the fact that no one seems to have the final answer to this issue--in that there are sales numbers that can be used---I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that there are going to be a lot of modellers out here doing the scratchbuilding thing in the not too distant future. In most other areas we see sales figures but here we hide them. Why? Are we afraid of the truth here?
If its an overstock of BLI maybe its all the returned locos that they fixed but that customers didnt want back!!
CNJ831:
Larry
Conductor.
Summerset Ry.
"Stay Alert, Don't get hurt Safety First!"