The 2000s gave us:
- DCC- The rise of the online hobby shop- "The Polar Express" getting a new generation excited about trains/train sets- The death of Athearn Blue Box kits- Styrofoam as an accepted layout scenery material- LEDs replacing incandescent bulbs in our trains- Laser cutting/etching- Higher detail level in the smaller scales (N and Z)
So what do you foresee in the new decade for the hobby? Trends, practices, innovations, etc?
Let's hear it...
I think we will see more locos have LEDs and other lighting effects already installed at the factory.
I hope the kit manufacturers (Accurail and others) will stay in business.
We will probably see more locos that are offered with DCC on board than standard DC.
Maybe some more economical scenery techniques.
I am not a fortune teller so I don't know much.
Will
The industry will continue to evolve. It has since it started. Not to worry.
Rich
If you ever fall over in public, pick yourself up and say “sorry it’s been a while since I inhabited a body.” And just walk away.
On 12/21/2012, the world will come to an end and the hobby will cease to exist.
The Mayans have been predicting the death of the hobby longer than our resident Prophet O'Doom.
Andre
andrechapelon So what do you foresee in the new decade for the hobby? Trends, practices, innovations, etc? Let's hear it... On 12/21/2012, the world will come to an end and the hobby will cease to exist. The Mayans have been predicting the death of the hobby longer than our resident Prophet O'Doom. Andre
Andre:
Oh, Good God, did you go see that stupid movie, too, LOL?
Tom
Tom View my layout photos! http://s299.photobucket.com/albums/mm310/TWhite-014/Rio%20Grande%20Yuba%20River%20Sub One can NEVER have too many Articulateds!
The only quibbles I would have with your examples would be styrofoam accepted as a scenery material - it has been in widespread use since at least the early/mid 80s - and DCC, while it has become much more prevalent, has been around since since well before the millenium. Its predecessors date to the 60s, although they were not digital.
David
twhite andrechapelon So what do you foresee in the new decade for the hobby? Trends, practices, innovations, etc? Let's hear it... On 12/21/2012, the world will come to an end and the hobby will cease to exist. The Mayans have been predicting the death of the hobby longer than our resident Prophet O'Doom. Andre Andre: Oh, Good God, did you go see that stupid movie, too, LOL? Tom
Nope. I wouldn't waste a dime on it. I've just known about this so-called prediction for years.
andrechapelon On 12/21/2012, the world will come to an end and the hobby will cease to exist. The Mayans have been predicting the death of the hobby longer than our resident Prophet O'Doom.
Yes, BLI, in accordance with Mayan prophecy, will announce the end of the world in 2012. In November of 2012, they will announce that the end of the world has slipped, and will happen at a some later time, To Be Announced.
It takes an iron man to play with a toy iron horse.
DavidHThe only quibbles I would have with your examples would be styrofoam accepted as a scenery material - it has been in widespread use since at least the early/mid 80s - and DCC, while it has become much more prevalent, has been around since since well before the millenium. Its predecessors date to the 60s, although they were not digital. David
I'm referring to their general acceptance and commercial availability. Surely DCC was developed decades ago, but it didn't become mainstream until the 2000s. For example, the Wright Brothers invented human flight in the early 1900s, but people as a whole didn't take airline flights until the 1930s. Likewise, the Internet started in 1969, but it didn't enter the mainstream consciousness until the 1990s.
As for styrofoam, I've been in this hobby since 1980, and didn't hear about extruded styrofoam rock carvings in books, magazine or online until just a few years ago. Also, Woodland Scenics' foam products have only hit the market just a few years ago. That is where I base my facts on.
MisterBeasleyandrechapelon On 12/21/2012, the world will come to an end and the hobby will cease to exist. The Mayans have been predicting the death of the hobby longer than our resident Prophet O'Doom. Yes, BLI, in accordance with Mayan prophecy, will announce the end of the world in 2012. In November of 2012, they will announce that the end of the world has slipped, and will happen at a some later time, To Be Announced.
I think/hope that some time with in the next decade someone will come out with flex track on a roll.
No soldering no gluing just peel off a protective strip on the bottom and roll it on to the roadbed and press it down. Heck the advanced version will even have ballast in place.
Seriously though with technology the way it is and everything developing so fast and so unbelievable The possibility's seem almost limitless. I hope dcc and the control systems go the way of the pocket calculator and the PC cost wise. Remember how much you paid for your first pocket calculator and how BIG it was?Now there every where for a fraction of their original cost. Same with PC's what you paid a couple of thousand dollars for back in 2000 is now a tinker toy compared to what they have out now for a quarter of the price. Think about an I pod, where they even around back in 2000? but how you can fit literally thousands of songs on something not much larger then a credit card. I want to see those leaps and bounds an cost reductions come to the hobby. Old school modeling is good nothing wrong with it as it will always be here and never change but some of the new stuff is just so darned neat.
Difficult to predict any new trends in model railroading technologies and materials. The last two decades have seen leaps forward in electronics, which made sound and multi-train control on single track affordable to the masses. We will most likely see a lot more animated accessories entering the market, as those sub-miniature servos open up a whole bunch of new opportunities for this. Sound may become more sophisticated and enter the smaller scales, providing that the speaker issue can be solved and the chuff of a steamer is not a squeak, but a bark...
The global financial crisis has set limitations on the funds spendable for model railroading purposes. The last few year have seen the demise of many a renowned manufacturer, some of which were saved, but not all. We could thus see a smaller number of suppliers in the market. Traditional brands, like Rivarossi, Jouef, Lima, Arnold are now Hornby, Liliput is Bachmann, and Roco acquired Fleischmann. IHC, who used to be the sales outlet for Mehano locos, appears to be history by now. How other US brands will be affected, I don´t want to predict...
In any case, I don´t see our hobby to become cheaper.
Here's my predictions:
- Nanotechnology: It already exists, it's just going to be useful for modelers. You know those fans on top of your SD70ACe? Now imagine them spinning. In Z scale.
- Wireless. Wireless DCC is already here, but like telephones, it's going to be the norm rather than a gimmick.
- Interfacing with other technologies. How about using your iPhone or Blackberry as a (wireless) DCC throttle and programmer?
- Continued popularity of smaller scales. As population increases and the average size of households decreases, N and Z gain even more in popularity, with N virtually equaling the popularity of HO by the end of the decade.
- Holographic animation. Wanna see people walk your model streets? Automobiles drive around your layout town? Wanna see steam, smoke and diesel exhaust in your layout without having to breathe it? Holographic technology can make it all possible.
- Scale model sound units will enter leaps and bounds with a sound system that combines current sound technology methods with surround sound (picture a subwoofer under the layout and speakers in various locations around the pike. Prototype trains are mostly lower frequency rumble, which the current systems totally lack, and this can be simulated with the new sound technology.
- Mag-lev models. Not just mere models of magnetic levitation trains, but models that, like the prototype, run on magnetic levitation as well!
- Kato will partner with Parvia in manufacturing a semi-prefab structure/scenery system for the masses as a compliment to the Unitrack system. Think of the midway point between LEGO and fine-scale modeling. Will be popular with children who are old enough to handle smaller scales, yet too young for truly detailed modeling.
My predictions are a continuation of current trends:
1. Continued loss of economy kits such as Accurail. By the end of the decade they are all gone.
2. Continued increase in high cost low production resin kits.
3. Computer software to run your DCC layouts becomes available and easy to use.
4. HO remains the most popular scale but it's share of modelers declines. N gains the most and rivals HO by the end of the decade, but Z, S, and O all gain in popularity albeit behind N and HO.
5. Hobby shops continue to disappear, by the end of the decade all but a few large ones remain. Most of their business is online, but they have a small on site retail space.
6. All print magazines except Model Railroader are gone.
Enjoy
Paul
One thing I see is we will enjoy more excellent models from the box as the manufacturers compete for our hobby dollars.
Larry
Conductor.
Summerset Ry.
"Stay Alert, Don't get hurt Safety First!"
dinwittyThe industrial revolution hits central Africa, all our stuff is made by trained chimps.
You saw "Planet of The Apes" right?
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Niche markets open up for specialized locomotives--small steam, logging locomotives, that type o' thing. Cost? Different story---depends on mode of building them.
Sound will improve over time--Bose may start building small speakers to fit in HO/N scale trains
Earphones may be used for the locomotives sounds as well----dinged frying pans will be no longer an issue
Prices will, on the majority of things go up and up and up as fewer buyers have $$$ to buy
Instead of actually working to GROW the market, the idea will be to shrink it by promoting video train simulation even more----forget about RTR
RTR in HO/N scale locomotives will be priced so high that brass will come to be seen as cheap
And the Barrowsian Domino scheme will be the only thing left-------
Any argument carried far enough will end up in Semantics--Hartz's law of rhetoric Emerald. Leemer and Southern The route of the Sceptre Express Barry
I just started my blog site...more stuff to come...
http://modeltrainswithmusic.blogspot.ca/
In 2011 the forums will have a heated discussion of whether the term "switch" or "turnout" is prototypically correct.
In 2012 MTH will sue another manufacturer for patent infringement.
In 2013 the forums will have a heated discussion of whether the term "switch" or "turnout" is prototypically correct.
In 2015 an RFID car identification system will become available.
In 2016 the forums will have a heated discussion of whether the term "switch" or "turnout" is prototypically correct.
In 2017 the last plastic kit for a rail car will be produced, every car sold after that will either RTR or a craftsman kit.
In 2018 the forums will have a heated discussion of whether the term "switch" or "turnout" is prototypically correct.
In 2019 a computer program will be perfected to let the modeler build track on a "green screen" layout and then then use CGI to build scenery so the modeler can watch his models operate through whatever scenery he wants.
In 2019 the forums will have a heated discussion of whether the term "switch" or "turnout" is prototypically correct.
Dave H. Painted side goes up. My website : wnbranch.com
Metro Red LineSo what do you foresee in the new decade for the hobby? Trends, practices, innovations, etc?
I foresee:
-- Higher prices
-- Fewer LHS's
-- More BIG (special-interest) steam from MTH and BLI
Other Developments I Foresee in 2010:
-- An unanticipated shortage of empty Athearn Blue Boxes, finally vindicating a few certain sellers on ebay
-- Bachmann unveils their Spectrum version of an 0-5-0 (BLI soon follows with their version equipped with sound)
-- Walthers purchases the one lone remaining holdout manufacturer not already owned by Walthers
-- MRC introduces the first "green" power-pack, complete with a solar cell for sunny days and a wind-up key for when it rains.
-- Tsunami comes out with their first low-cost sound module aimed at the DIY crowd. I've obtained an advance copy of the user's manual:
Step 1. Clear your throat. Step 2. Follow your train and utter the words "Choo" and "Choo" in rapid succession.Step 3. At periodic intervals loudly exclaim "Woo Woo!" Step 4. At road crossings and station stops make a loud "Ding Ding" type noise. Note: If supported by your prototype you may substitute either "Ding Dong" or "Clang Clang" instead.Step 5. Repeat steps 2 through 4 in any order
Step 1. Clear your throat.
Step 2. Follow your train and utter the words "Choo" and "Choo" in rapid succession.
Step 3. At periodic intervals loudly exclaim "Woo Woo!"
Step 4. At road crossings and station stops make a loud "Ding Ding" type noise.
Note: If supported by your prototype you may substitute either "Ding Dong" or "Clang Clang" instead.
Step 5. Repeat steps 2 through 4 in any order
-- President Obama reveals that he has long been a closet Model Railroader and is a fan of the Illinois Central. Orders the secret service to change out of their MIB uniforms and adopt the more traditional striped overalls, red kerchef, and Hardee Hat. President Obama also ordered the U.S. Mint to issue authentic gold railroad watches to all senior government officials.
-- The price of plastic escalates skyward due to the increasing demand for finely-detailed locomotives and rolling stock. Forces mfgrs to revert to cheaper methods, such as handcrafted brass, to produce their products
-- North Korea's Kim Jong-Il announces he'll give up on trying to get nuclear weapons and will open the borders to free trade with South Korea and the rest of the world in return for two MTH Railking PRR K4 Pacifics (Post War Edition), a UP "Big Boy", and an NW2 undecorated.
-- Bill and Hillary take a break from government service and politics and put out their first historic model locomotive, the "DeWitt"....
(wait for it...)
-- Model Railroader magazine announces a strategic merger with the National Lampoon. The first post-merger edition features Tony Koester's short story novella "My 2-8-8-2", and Andy Sperandeo reveals his secret love for Icelandic railroading tradition.
-- In a good-will gesture Rod Stewart, Mandy Patinkin and Neil Young band together to purchase the Chinese company "New Bright". Their first directive to employees is to send out apologies to everybody who's ever purchased one of their products.
-- The BNSF Railroad re-introduces passenger service to several major U.S. cities and includes a new class of self-serve diner known as the "Buffet" car.
1. Self propelled trains, with minute and very long lasting batteries, with wireless control. Instead of DCC programming tracks, we will have recharging tracks to avoid having to remove the batteries (until they create the battery that lasts a lifetime -- that comes in the 2020s).
2. More Z scale. Maybe not at the expense of other scales, but more Z.
3. The price advantages of manufacturing in China will decrease as the Chinese people start to demand something higher than subsistence wages. Think North Korea. Maybe Africa. But the bosses will be Chinese.
4. NMRA splits into scale specific organizations, and within each scale, more divisions into regular standards, semi-exact, and absolute scale. This means there might be less mass marketing of trains and thus higher prices, with new locomotives being offered in three versions.
5. Sound in everything (see battery discussion above).
6. More animation. Cars will move, trees will sway, flags will flutter. We won't even talk about the scale pigeons!
7. Backdrops will be plasma screens with slow moving clouds, distant moving traffic, changes in sun angle.
8. Swear words will be allowed in these Forums. Prohibitions on nudity will mostly remain (but wait for the 2020s!)
9. The Barrowsian Domino scheme will enjoy its well deserved total triumph because "lifetime" layouts will take less time to build and restless modelers will keep changing layouts, changing scales, eras, and prototypes, or will be moving from one degree of scale accuracy to another -- and lumber will be so darned expensive that any method that encourages its re-use (or sale to others if you leave the hobby) will be almost mandatory.
Dave Nelson
But they encourage you to pre-order to be among the first notified when it occurs.
IRONROOSTER My predictions are a continuation of current trends: 1. Continued loss of economy kits such as Accurail. By the end of the decade they are all gone. 2. Continued increase in high cost low production resin kits. 3. Computer software to run your DCC layouts becomes available and easy to use. 4. HO remains the most popular scale but it's share of modelers declines. N gains the most and rivals HO by the end of the decade, but Z, S, and O all gain in popularity albeit behind N and HO. 5. Hobby shops continue to disappear, by the end of the decade all but a few large ones remain. Most of their business is online, but they have a small on site retail space. 6. All print magazines except Model Railroader are gone. Paul
Based on what has transpired over the past few decades, Paul's prognostications are probably far more likely to come to pass than what many others have suggested. To his list, I would add that the following will likely come to pass by the end of the decade if current trends hold:
1. Most locomotives and rollingstock will only be available on a pre-ordered, pre-paid, basis. A great many obscure engines will be "announced" but never produced because of lack of subscription. The popular segment of the hobby will be almost exclusively RTR.
2. By the end of the decade the price of the average quality plastic steam loco will be in the $1,500 range, while that of diesels will be $500 per switcher, $750+ for a road engine and a minimum of $1,250 for any A+B sets. Brass will remain but not as a part of the actual layout operating hobby. Low-end, or entry-level equipment will disappear from the marketplace totally and those brave enough to enter the hobby will be forced to deal almost exclusively with on-line auction sites to purchase older, OOP items.
3. The hobby will continue to shrink and age, dropping to perhaps 100,000 participants (all scales) as older hobbyists (the hobby's majority) fade away, the RR hobby shops totally disappear and the hobby's exposure to the general public through auditorium-type shows dwindles due to the costs associated with putting them on steadily riisng.
4. The availability of craftsman laser structure kits will continue to expand but with limited production runs of 100-150 pieces, or so, and their prices will increase dramatically. At the same time, plastic structures will become strictly RTR.
5. The consolidation of the major manufacturers will continue. By the end of the decade little beyond Atlas, Walthers, and Horizon will remain. The continuing search for cheaper off-shore builders will be complicated by quality control problems.
6. We will see more and more specific name-trains offered, but at truly premium prices.
7. Ready-made layout sections, fully scenicked and RTR, will become available, making the truly plug-and-play layout a reality...at a price. The same may be true of smaller but fully detailed, pre-built, layout industrial scenes that can be added to existing layouts.
8. The current dicotomy in the hobby will widen, with the craftsman aspect becoming universally regarded as a separate hobby from the RTR segment, just as occurred with O/HO scale and tin-plate/Hi-Rail in the 1950's. This will be likewise reflected in the two remaining major magazines, of which one will become essentially just for the RTR enthusiast, while the other will be aimed at the traditional hands-on modeler/craftsman. Both magazines may shrink to 6 issues a year. Most serious layout building/assembling information will come through the purchase of DVDs, or on-line downloads...part of the pay-as-you-go future Internet (i.e. no more free sites).
9. Model Railroader's circulation will drop below 90,000 and its page-count to 75, or even less (unless it goes bi-monthly), be almost ad free and cost at least $9.95 per issue at the news stand...if it can be found their at all.
10. The Lionel market will decline dramatically and finally disappear altogether by the mid 2020's, as those who actually recall Lionel from their childhood vanish from the scene.
CNJ831
CNJ831,
the picture you paint is a failrly bleak one, but I am afraid, your are not that far off, if current trends continue.
CNJ8318. The current dicotomy in the hobby will widen, with the craftsman aspect becoming universally regarded as a separate hobby from the RTR segment, just as occurred with scale and tin-plate in the 1950's. This will be likewise reflected in the two remaining major magazines, of which one will become essentially just for the RTR enthusiast, while the other will be aimed at the traditional hands-on modeler/craftsman. Both magazines may shrink to 6 issues a year. Most serious layout building/assembling information will come through the purchase of DVDs, or on-line downloads...part of the pay-as-you-go future Internet (i.e. no more free sites).
There is already talk of pay-as-you-go Internet sites now. A couple of them are charging "membership" now---part of that growing "market". I could also see most MR magazines being quarterly--at 80-100 pages and premium prices.
As for that dichotomy I suspect we will see what could be seen in some places in Europe---MR and Fine Scale.
CNJ8315. The consolidation of the major manufacturers will continue. By the end of the decade little beyond Atlas, Walthers, and Horizon will remain. The continuing search for cheaper off-shore builders will be complicated by quality control problems
I think the QA issue will kill that outsourcing --- either that or you'll see a further drop in quality as end-user repairs become "normal" It may in fact force hobbyists out completely as they discover that there still needs be some form of hands on being done, or, some people discover the joy in fiddling/tinkering and start up "garages" to repair locomotives for others. The idea of Africa being the last bastion of cheap labour may already be problematic as there is a sort of movement now to get workers there up to speed on their own rights---
CNJ8317. Ready-made layout sections, fully scenicked and RTR, will become available, making the truly plug-and-play layout a reality...at a price. The same may be true of smaller but fully detailed, pre-built, layout industrial scenes that can be added to existing layouts.
Interesting thing about the diorama idea being already built---we already have the platforms for this very thing now---give it about 3 years and we'll see this. Would there be even domino layouts?
Basically what we are seeing is a market being strangled by restricting--instead of GROWING--that market. This will be the way it'll go--
---unless some of us start rejigging our sharpened pencils and GROW our own market--
Sir Madog CNJ831, the picture you paint is a failrly bleak one, but I am afraid, your are not that far off, if current trends continue.
The picture was bleak in 1934, but some how we made it to now.
People, all people everywhere, tend to look at history, the world and the future from the limited frame of reference of their own experiances.
The world is much bigger than any of us, and it will keep moving along.
The economies will improve, things will shift, but there is little chance of knowing exactly what those shifts will be.
I guess I'm more optimistic than most of you, but as a self employed believer in capitalism, I have to be.
Marklin, LGB, IHC or whoever are not "entitled" to stay in business, no more than anyone else in business in the whole history of the world. Markets change, companies evolve or die. Athearn has evolved, I think they are well positioned for the nex decade. BLI or MTH may want to decide who their customers really are and find out what those customers want.
Sheldon
CNJ8317. Ready-made layout sections, fully scenicked and RTR, will become available, making the truly plug-and-play layout a reality...at a price. The same may be true of smaller but fully detailed, pre-built, layout industrial scenes that can be added to existing layouts. 8. The current dicotomy in the hobby will widen, with the craftsman aspect becoming universally regarded as a separate hobby from the RTR segment, just as occurred with scale and tin-plate in the 1950's. This will be likewise reflected in the two remaining major magazines, of which one will become essentially just for the RTR enthusiast, while the other will be aimed at the traditional hands-on modeler/craftsman. Both magazines may shrink to 6 issues a year. Most serious layout building/assembling information will come through the purchase of DVDs, or on-line downloads...part of the pay-as-you-go future Internet (i.e. no more free sites). 9. Model Railroader's circulation will drop below 90,000 and its page-count to 75, or less (unless it goes bi-monthly), be almost ad free and cost at least $9.95 per issue at the news stand...if it can be found their at all.
8. The current dicotomy in the hobby will widen, with the craftsman aspect becoming universally regarded as a separate hobby from the RTR segment, just as occurred with scale and tin-plate in the 1950's. This will be likewise reflected in the two remaining major magazines, of which one will become essentially just for the RTR enthusiast, while the other will be aimed at the traditional hands-on modeler/craftsman. Both magazines may shrink to 6 issues a year. Most serious layout building/assembling information will come through the purchase of DVDs, or on-line downloads...part of the pay-as-you-go future Internet (i.e. no more free sites).
9. Model Railroader's circulation will drop below 90,000 and its page-count to 75, or less (unless it goes bi-monthly), be almost ad free and cost at least $9.95 per issue at the news stand...if it can be found their at all.
#7 is already pretty much out there, although not a true "RTR" thing-- Woodland Scenics has a line of railroad modules that come complete with everything you need to set them up and scenic them-- at least to basic terrain / terraforming. And then they have a number of building kit "sets" (or maybe they're RTR, not sure) for industrial, light commercial, residential, etc. that you can add to them. Similar to their layout-in-a-box products.
#8 I don't think will happen quite the to the extent that you suggest and here's why-- I don't disagree that there is a widening gap between craftsmen and RTR'ers, but take it to the extreme-- the craftsmen will always have something to talk about and "do" that's worth reporting and circulating. What will the RTR'ers have? An RTR catalog? And hold that thought a sec...
#9 While MR's circulation might be declining (and I don't know if that's true or not, just going on your statement), I don't think it has to lose ad revenue-- if anything it could (and should anyway, IMO) *ADD* more ads, perhaps even include that whole RTR catalog from #8 above. Whatever works to sell the magazine and get the articles out there. MR, IMO, should do more to embrace the "new media" and integrate their print copy with the web and online media. MRH e-zine is showing them the way to a new and prosperous future, IMO. No need to discontinue the print edition. Frankly its a little unweildy trying to balance the laptop whilst on the throne, if you catch my drift...
But I personally REALLY REALLY ENJOY the ads-- truly I do. I like looking at them, seeing what's available, keeping up with a sense of the pricing and all that. And when the advertiser includes a link to something online, or if I'm accessing the copy via an online-enabled medium, I happily click on anything that strikes my fancy.
What the publishers of MR and their advertisers may not realize is that MR is a highly-focused and mostly self-selected group of *INTERESTED* potential customers. The best dollars an advertiser can ever hope to spend and the best kind of eyeballs a publisher can ever hope to offer.
Sell me something! I've got bucks and wanna spend 'em. Show me what I can buy.
(Seriously!)
That's my two-cents of course, others may have alternate opinions.
ATLANTIC CENTRAL I guess I'm more optimistic than most of you, but as a self employed believer in capitalism, I have to be. Marklin, LGB, IHC or whoever are not "entitled" to stay in business, no more than anyone else in business in the whole history of the world. Markets change, companies evolve or die. Athearn has evolved, I think they are well positioned for the nex decade. BLI or MTH may want to decide who their customers really are and find out what those customers want.
You are, in a way, right. The point is that somewhere the idea of one GROWING the market was seemingly thrown out and in it's place we get this "bottom line" approach that really is not what we started with. FIRST we provided the goods/services and THEN--after we did our jobs so that clients came-- could we talk about profits. Now we look first at the ROI--determine the product--then push that.
But if we continue to do the "deer caught in the headlights" thing what we are seeing will happen. Time to think about what a "market" is--a thing with limited resources---or something that can change---hence grow
RE 2012: "...Misinterpretation of the Mesoamerican Long Count calendar is the basis for a New Age belief that a cataclysm will take place on December 21, 2012. December 21, 2012 is simply the last day of the 13th b'ak'tun. But that is not the end of the Long Count because the 14th through 20th b'ak'tuns are still to come...." (from the Wikipedia)
RE the Hobby:
More RTR - Less Kits
More DCC - Less Analog
More On30 offerings - Less G scale offerings
More online ordering - Less Brick & Morter shops
and finally;
More longtimers dying off - Less newbies to replace them
Have fun with your trains
Frankly, I do not like the picture painted here for the future of our hobby. I do hope that things will turn around and the hobby remains as enjoyable as it is today - with a wealth of different manufacturers catering to our various needs. To a degree, this is up to us, supporting manufacturers and local hobby shops of our choice. I really hate to see the hobby turning into a pastime of aging rich men...
Strictly staying with the OP's question
As someone stated, more nanotechnology (like spinning exhaust fans)
DCC Throttle/Camera combination: Input type of loco, screen will appear with correct interior view of control stand and view from the windshield via a tiny camera so you can run your loco on your layout, just make sure you keep the windshield clean!
More accurate scenery products such as trees, crops, bushes.
More modular kits that move beyond brick as the building material.
Kits to completely assemble modules based on existing standards (NMRA, N-Trak, Free-Mo).
Ricky