blownout cylinderYou are, in a way, right. The point is that somewhere the idea of one GROWING the market was seemingly thrown out and in it's place we get this "bottom line" approach that really is not what we started with. FIRST we provided the goods/services and THEN--after we did our jobs so that clients came-- could we talk about profits. Now we look first at the ROI--determine the product--then push that.
Barry, I agree with you completely on the issue of growing the market rather than "milking" it, which is largely what is done now.
The problem has a lot to with private vs public investment. I doubt Mr Athearn had any stock holders to answer to back in the day.
And, when I complain (yes, I konw I do) about MTH and BLI and their marketing, I am actually complaining about the same issue. They want to control the market by forcing us to buy what they make, rather than making what we want.
Admittedly, some of us want different things, OK, Walthers, Bachmann, Athearn, Intermountain and long list of others seem to be able to offer products with different features and different price ranges for different segments of the market, dispite the current world economics - why can't BLI or MTH?
One they don't want to - they would rather tell us what we should have, its easier.
Two, at least in the case of BLI, I don't think they have enough working capital.
Sheldon
Quality plastic U25c's in ho
HO C636 (although that may be pushing it for 2010 maybe 2011)
The ability for throttles to show levels of fuel and water/coal will become more widespread
Athearn using led's (lol right)
As much as I'd hate to sound negative, CNJ and Iron rooster's scenarios eem most likely.
What I hope happens:
Vincent
Wants: 1. high-quality, sound equipped, SD40-2s, C636s, C30-7s, and F-units in BN. As for ones that don't cost an arm and a leg, that's out of the question....
2. An end to the limited-production and other crap that makes models harder to get and more expensive.
MisterBeasley Yes, BLI, in accordance with Mayan prophecy, will announce the end of the world in 2012. In November of 2012, they will announce that the end of the world has slipped, and will happen at a some later time, To Be Announced.
Yes, BLI, in accordance with Mayan prophecy, will announce the end of the world in 2012. In November of 2012, they will announce that the end of the world has slipped, and will happen at a some later time, To Be Announced.
And they will be sued by another manufacturer who says he thought of the end of the world first.
Dave H. Painted side goes up. My website : wnbranch.com
You all have got me thinking. After reading some of these posts and going back to work on the milling machine I started doing mental comparisons to my trade, machining. Here's what I see happening, and I think we'll all be happier. (Or our children anyway)
There's a huge trend in engineering towards "rapid prototyping" machines. I see the time in the not to far distant future where all you buy is a standadized motor and gearbox pack, a standard power pack (think rechargable tools, but smaller) and you design the rest. You've got the RP machine, cartridges of powdered plastic, nickel silver, brass, etc. You download a file from the net, or fire up the CAD program and do the design of your loco. Standard sub-files are available for details like drivers, truck frames and anything else that may be common to an era. Once you've got your design done, you download the program into the RP machine and get cracking. In a hour, you've got a still warm version, in whatever scale you desire, of the loco you want. A quick shot with low VOC paints for weathering and you're good to go.
Who cares what BLI, Athearn, Walthers or any of the rest of them does. With a deal like this, you're your own manufacturer. If your buddy likes yours, you zap him the file and he makes one just like yours, but of course with the whistle, sandboxes and so on edited to suit his prototype.
Cost? Right now, it's pretty pricey, and the materials are somewhat limited. Thing is, this technology is growing at an exponential rate. Just like so many of the things we take for granted now, demand and technology will make things possible in 10-20 years that we can only wish for today. Cool part is, if you model trains, your son models warships, and your wife wants new napkin rings for the party this weekend, everybody gets to play. The machine doesn't care what it makes, as long as it's within it's operating envelope. As soon as you're done with whatever you've made, you grind up the model and reuse the powder. Dropped it on the floor and broke it? Grind it up, load the file and make a new one. Sounds neat to me.
Lou
2016: Intermountain Railway N scale SP Cab Forwards finally arrive.
Javelina You all have got me thinking. After reading some of these posts and going back to work on the milling machine I started doing mental comparisons to my trade, machining. Here's what I see happening, and I think we'll all be happier. (Or our children anyway) There's a huge trend in engineering towards "rapid prototyping" machines. I see the time in the not to far distant future where all you buy is a standadized motor and gearbox pack, a standard power pack (think rechargable tools, but smaller) and you design the rest. You've got the RP machine, cartridges of powdered plastic, nickel silver, brass, etc. You download a file from the net, or fire up the CAD program and do the design of your loco. Standard sub-files are available for details like drivers, truck frames and anything else that may be common to an era. Once you've got your design done, you download the program into the RP machine and get cracking. In a hour, you've got a still warm version, in whatever scale you desire, of the loco you want. A quick shot with low VOC paints for weathering and you're good to go. Who cares what BLI, Athearn, Walthers or any of the rest of them does. With a deal like this, you're your own manufacturer. If your buddy likes yours, you zap him the file and he makes one just like yours, but of course with the whistle, sandboxes and so on edited to suit his prototype. Cost? Right now, it's pretty pricey, and the materials are somewhat limited. Thing is, this technology is growing at an exponential rate. Just like so many of the things we take for granted now, demand and technology will make things possible in 10-20 years that we can only wish for today. Cool part is, if you model trains, your son models warships, and your wife wants new napkin rings for the party this weekend, everybody gets to play. The machine doesn't care what it makes, as long as it's within it's operating envelope. As soon as you're done with whatever you've made, you grind up the model and reuse the powder. Dropped it on the floor and broke it? Grind it up, load the file and make a new one. Sounds neat to me. Lou
I think it will take quite a while for the "Pocket Calculator Effect" to bring prices down to an anywhere reasonable level for the home modeler to ever own one of these. So perhaps instead of having a personal RP machine in your basement, perhaps an online service where you send in your model and specs desired, make your downpayment then its banged out with perhaps a online realtime feed to see the model testing, then its sent and you pay the final retainer on acceptance at delivery. The advantage is that 3D computer models are cheap to store, you can have 100s or 1000s to chose from, so if I want a Darjeeling Class B locomotive in On30 scale, it can be assembled from a kit of parts in the computers database on the RP machine, that would be very interesting indeed
Have fun with your trains
vsmithI think it will take quite a while for the "Pocket Calculator Effect" to bring prices down to an anywhere reasonable level for the home modeler to ever own one of these. So perhaps instead of having a personal RP machine in your basement, perhaps an online service where you send in your model and specs desired, make your downpayment then its banged out with perhaps a online realtime feed to see the model testing, then its sent and you pay the final retainer on acceptance at delivery. The advantage is that 3D computer models are cheap to store, you can have 100s or 1000s to chose from, so if I want a Darjeeling Class B locomotive in On30 scale, it can be assembled from a kit of parts in the computers database on the RP machine, that would be very interesting indeed
Interesting point this one. There seems to be one firm that I'm regularly getting information from that appears to be heading in that general direction. Kind of intriguing that the rapid prototyping idea has picked up as the equipment has come down in price. The only problem is that I'm still not really impressed with the little rills that one gets as the piece is profiled. 3D computer models, however, are more interesting in that one can sort of set out kits in a modular form that much more quicker and can be more cost effective in some ways. One can set up a nice little cottage industry doing it this way.
Any argument carried far enough will end up in Semantics--Hartz's law of rhetoric Emerald. Leemer and Southern The route of the Sceptre Express Barry
I just started my blog site...more stuff to come...
http://modeltrainswithmusic.blogspot.ca/
vsmith I think it will take quite a while for the "Pocket Calculator Effect" to bring prices down to an anywhere reasonable level for the home modeler to ever own one of these. So perhaps instead of having a personal RP machine in your basement, perhaps an online service where you send in your model and specs desired, make your downpayment then its banged out with perhaps a online realtime feed to see the model testing, then its sent and you pay the final retainer on acceptance at delivery. The advantage is that 3D computer models are cheap to store, you can have 100s or 1000s to chose from, so if I want a Darjeeling Class B locomotive in On30 scale, it can be assembled from a kit of parts in the computers database on the RP machine, that would be very interesting indeed
I was counting on a rapid proto machine to be useful for so much that it would "substitute" for any number of sources we use now for a wide range of products. We (model railroaders) spend lots of money on locos, rolling stock, track, structures an so on. Add it all up and I'll bet the number would be substantial, maybe even enough to justify a machine. Not to mention the other uses(the napkin rings above) we would have for it. I do like the offsite idea though, especially for big stuff or materials that are not readily available. In any case, the independence from "big-time" manufacturers is what appeals to me. It'd be like the best of R-T-R and scratchbuilt all in one package.
vsmithI think it will take quite a while for the "Pocket Calculator Effect" to bring prices down to an anywhere reasonable level for the home modeler to ever own one of these.
You mean one of these?
Reprap - Rapid Prototyping System
You can build one from scratch with complete plans online. Or purchase critical subassemblies already assembled. Or buy a complete kit of parts. Or buy a completely assembled machine (RTR).
The question is, the way I see it, is which way are you gonna go? The "craftsman" route and make your own "Santa Claus machine" from scratch... or the "RTR" route??? I think the Rapid Prototyping hobby may be about to split...
2020?? I thought the world was going to end Dec 21, 2012?? That's what they keep saying on the History Channel anyway....
wjstix 2020?? I thought the world was going to end Dec 21, 2012?? That's what they keep saying on the History Channel anyway....
Shoot. According to Nina Gordon, it's already ended.
Why does the sun go on shining Why does the sea rush to shore Don't they know it's the end of the world'Cause you don't love me any more Why do the birds go on singing Why do the stars glow above Don't they know it's the end of the worldIt ended when I lost your love...........
Andre
1) 3D TV arrives on the market this summer. Pentrex, Green Frog will sell Blue Ray 3D video. The 3D glasses will fit on the brim of a railroad cap. Your choice of road name.
2) Model Railroader on the net may be the last all scale general model railroad magazine, with a heavy Internet content. Model videos will be converted to the 3D TV format.
3) Model Railroader will sponsor the first 3D TV Virtual Model Railroad.
4) On a worldwide basis, N scale will match & pass HO scale. Z may grow to 3rd place. Larger scales will hold on in gardens. Toy trains like Lionel O & American Flyer S exist only in museums where aging boomers entertain a new generation of grandkids.
5) HSR may exist in California, IL, & the Northeast. HSR models will be popular. The trains will be done in regional color schemes.
6) Financial difficulty (bankruptcy) will force the breakup of CSX & NS into smaller regional systems. UP/BNSF will share a lot of trackage in the West to preserve some competition from the 2 carriers.
7) Modelers will debate the merits of Kato, Atlas, Athearn, MTL, Bachmann products.
More manufacturers will resort to polling the customer base to see what models they should build.
The first battery powered locomotive for HO scale will arrive. LiAsGa
One major manufacturer will be bought by another, another victim of the Recession.
More Hobby shops will close.
A company will FINALLY come out with a 40' Rio Grande boxcar that isn't either wood-braced or the silver steel "Cookie Box". Oh, wait a moment, I see that Accurail just DID! A 40' steel Rio Grande boxcar in the late 'forties boxcar red. And it's a KIT! Thank you, Accurail.
BLI, MTH, Genesis and Proto 2000 will all come out (at the same time) with models of the Missabe M-3/4 2-8-8-4 Yellowstones. They will all sue each other over the copyrights to who owns the sound effects. Meanwhile, those that buy either the BLI, MTH, Genesis or Proto 2000 Yellowstones will suddenly realize that because of all the electronic sound, smoke and general DCC gizmos taking up all the weight in the locomotives, that they can barely pull their tenders.
There is a sudden rush to hunt up all of the remaining Akane brass 1964 models. Again.
Athearn and BLI will finally come out with their 1937 and 1948 "Coast Daylight" trains. MTH will consider sueing them until they suddenly realize that their "Daylight" cars are instead based on the 1950 "Shasta Daylight" trains, which are a whole other ball of wax. SP modelers will be the happiest people in the world.
BLI will hesitantly release a Pennsy H-series 2-8-0 in lieu of another Pennsy Duplex and be amazed that it turns out to be the best-selling steam locomotive it ever produced.
With the sudden success of their HO "Mountain Lions", Woodland Scenics will release Bobcats, Lynx and field mice. The HO field mice will come in VERY small plastic packages.
Tom
Tom View my layout photos! http://s299.photobucket.com/albums/mm310/TWhite-014/Rio%20Grande%20Yuba%20River%20Sub One can NEVER have too many Articulateds!
The Location: Forests of the Pacific Northwest, OregonThe Year: 1948The Scale: On30The Blog: http://bvlcorr.tumblr.com
andrechapelon wjstix 2020?? I thought the world was going to end Dec 21, 2012?? That's what they keep saying on the History Channel anyway.... Shoot. According to Nina Gordon, it's already ended. Why does the sun go on shining Why does the sea rush to shore Don't they know it's the end of the world'Cause you don't love me any more Why do the birds go on singing Why do the stars glow above Don't they know it's the end of the worldIt ended when I lost your love........... Andre
The End of the World has been forecast for millenia----
1. Several times a year, on this very forum, people will lament the lost "good old days".
2. At least once a month on this forum, someone will start a thread complaining about pricing in the hobby and will accuse one or more manufacturers of being driven by pure greed.
3. Several times a year someone will start a thread complaining about the "dumbing" down of content in MR.
4. Several times a year someone will start a thread complaining about Mike Wolfe and/or MTH.
5. At least once a week, someone will start a thread asking "What's the best <fill in the blank>?".
6. Several times a year, someone will post a cryptic question along the lines of "My <fill in the blank> doesn't work, what's wrong with it?". It will take at least two pages of posts to determine what the OP was actually referring to.
7. Sometime in the next 10 years, yours truly will find the Joe G. Collias letter to the editor from sometime in 1959 or so which lamented the direction the hobby was taking then. I will then alter the wording slightly to disquise the fact that the Collias rant is a half century old and post it. At least 50% of those responding will aqree.
8. Of the the above 7 predictions, the first 6 will be shown at the end of 10 years to have been 100% correct. The 7th would also be shown to be correct if I actually cared enough to make the effort.
ANdre
andrechapelon8. Of the the above 7 predictions, the first 6 will be shown at the end of 10 years to have been 100% correct. The 7th would also be shown to be correct if I actually cared enough to make the effort.
I think one could go with a few others in the magazine-----b/c they seem to fit the same thread pattern
You forgot another one---there will usually be---but not always a jousting match between 2 or 3 main characters in the story line
Wdlgln005 1) 3D TV arrives on the market this summer....
1) 3D TV arrives on the market this summer....
Aug 5, 3:00pm the first 3-D TV hits the market
Aug 5, 3:01pm the first 3-D DVD porno hits the market
betcha ol' Criswell is 100% correct on this one
vsmithWdlgln005 1) 3D TV arrives on the market this summer.... Aug 5, 3:00pm the first 3-D TV hits the market Aug 5, 3:01pm the first 3-D DVD porno hits the market betcha ol' Criswell is 100% correct on this one
Aug 5, 3:02pm Joan Rivers and Phyllis Diller team up for the first female 3D TV Comics Hour
Aug 5, 3:03pm 3D TV relegated to the dustbin of history