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The market is killing me ( may be a bit off topic ) Locked

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Posted by Tjsingle on Monday, June 30, 2008 11:23 PM

What most people don't relize is that there is a good amount of oil left, some examples are in Russia, Canada, Oil sands in canda or alaska. But one solution is more US drilling, Americans rely to heavilly on imported oil, from the middle east which, it seems like there is always a issue, like wars, fighting, and just unrest. Americans Should be happy that gas is not $8 a gallon like it is in European Countries like England. Personally I believe that this whole thing will blow over, but we will never see gas under $3 a gallon ever again. One thing that i'm asking myself is why are we wasting so much money in Iraq, and wasting gasoline in Iraq. One  solution is Iraq Paying us back for what we have risked and done for there people, paying us back in the oil in Iraq, but hey will that ever happen? Oil Will hold out for 150 years i bet, and we will gradually decrease the use of it, until we use other sources of energy. Also the USA has ALOT of coal, coal can not only be used for energy, but can be exported to other countries. There will never Be a clean coal, but we can make it  "cleaner", by using filters, and other ways. Nuclear energy doesn't look so bad ethier, people are just afaird of  another Three Mile Island.

Well just my view on this topic.

Tjsingle

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Posted by loathar on Monday, June 30, 2008 11:27 PM

 SteamFreak wrote:




I was reading a National Geographic article today about kids in Ghana burning the insulation off of wiring stripped from dead computers and breathing clouds of black, poisonous smoke just to make a few bucks from the scrap copper.

NEWSFLASH! They're doing that here in Lawrenceburg Tn.Whistling [:-^] I was at the dump the other day and there was dump truck sized load of wire insulation someone had stripped off with a razor knife to get at the copper. (guess they couldn't afford the diesel fuel to burn it.)

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Posted by rolleiman on Tuesday, July 1, 2008 6:28 AM
 loathar wrote:

 SteamFreak wrote:




I was reading a National Geographic article today about kids in Ghana burning the insulation off of wiring stripped from dead computers and breathing clouds of black, poisonous smoke just to make a few bucks from the scrap copper.

NEWSFLASH! They're doing that here in Lawrenceburg Tn.Whistling [:-^] I was at the dump the other day and there was dump truck sized load of wire insulation someone had stripped off with a razor knife to get at the copper. (guess they couldn't afford the diesel fuel to burn it.)

Detroit Too.. And it doesn't matter where the wire comes from. Some small businesses find they have no power and it's because someone pillaged the copper wiring from the side of the building. Only in this case, you aren't likely to see a truck load of wire insulation dumped anywhere, it's all gone up in a cloud of black smoke (to pay for another kind of smoke). 

Modeling the Wabash from Detroit to Montpelier Jeff
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Posted by SteamFreak on Tuesday, July 1, 2008 6:37 AM
 loathar wrote:

 SteamFreak wrote:




I was reading a National Geographic article today about kids in Ghana burning the insulation off of wiring stripped from dead computers and breathing clouds of black, poisonous smoke just to make a few bucks from the scrap copper.

NEWSFLASH! They're doing that here in Lawrenceburg Tn.Whistling [:-^] I was at the dump the other day and there was dump truck sized load of wire insulation someone had stripped off with a razor knife to get at the copper. (guess they couldn't afford the diesel fuel to burn it.)

I'm sending Packers#1 to Tennessee to be your life coach. Mischief [:-,]

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Posted by Angus99 on Tuesday, July 1, 2008 7:51 AM

 

ouengr wrote the following post at 06-30-2008 10:34 PM:

I have seen and read a number of models predicitng all sorts of scenarios for the oil market.  I have haeard several analysts say that the oil market is highly unstable and a signifigant downward force would break the bubble.  I have heard the exact opposite as well.  Truthfully, no one on this planet can tell you for sure.

I know that a couple of years ago I was watching the real estate market and there were analysts who said that the gravy train would continue forever.  Others thought that the market was overblown.  I was in the second catagory.  The price of a good can only go so high before alternatives become practical.  If the markets sense that we are all looking to alternatives, then the market will shift.  

Right now we are dealing with a bubble in the market.  Individuals invested in the dot com bubble and then went to real estate.  Now they are ar commidities whether oil, grains, etc.  Some of the speculators are afraid that they will get caught short and are starting to pull back.  Some of the reportst that I have read indicate that the new commidties dollars are down singifigantely. At this point, I would not put one red cent in the commidities market.  Simply put, everyone is there and competing for dwendling profits.   I am looking at other investment sectors.  If the areas that I am interested in investng in become the next thing, I will sell out of them.  The hard part is not knowing when the bubble will burst

 

 

Demand is not down.  Globally, it's increasing at the fastest rate ever recorded.  Demand is flattening in the US - the US is no longer the only 500lb consumer gorilla at the global table.  That's the key point about comparing this to the energy crisis of the 70's - that was a political event, and did not reflect the real price of oil as set by the law of supply and demand.  This time, it's all about supply and demand.  In my previous post, I noted that the increase in cost for fuel for airlines means they would have to quintuple profitability to achieve last year's performance.  It's fascinating to speculate the impacts on the rail industry - both positive and negative.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/01/news/economy/oil_speculation/index.htm?cnn=yes

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Posted by Autobus Prime on Tuesday, July 1, 2008 9:23 AM
 loathar wrote:
 Angus99 wrote:

 Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries signalled short term increases in production - with virtually no impact on price.

 

The only debate currently occupying our scenario planners is the question of how long it will take gas price to double again.  

 

These are the two things that are really bugging me. When the supply goes up, the prices are staying high. (artificially??)

Look at how many decades it took for gas to hit $1. Then it took less than a decade to hit $2. Then less than 5 years for $3. Now it's gone to $4 in less than a year. And probably up to $5 in the next 6 months. You start expecting it to go up 10 cents/month for the rest of your life and that's a future that doesn't seem real rosy to me. It won't be long before our economy looks like Germany's did before WWII.Sigh [sigh]



L:

Well, for the first thing, yes. It's possible for prices to become decoupled from supply and demand in the short run. Look at what happened with dot-com stocks. A baby should have known they weren't worth what they were selling for, but people were excited, so they paid it, and the "product" was quite profitable for the producer - "cheap" to produce, but selling at a good price, so the stock offerings kept coming. That bubble was inflated by excitement. This one is inflated largely by fear. In the long run, though, supply and demand must rule, so the correction will come.

Production increases haven't impacted price because, at this point, people are buying oil on wild speculation that it will go up even more next month. And the speculation is strong enough that it does. So more speculators jump in. It's the same thing that happened with home sales in some parts of the country. Those houses weren't worth the selling price, but people kept building more, because it was so profitable. And what happened?

It may well be that the price won't correct down to 2000 levels. I think gasoline will go down to about $2.50 or so, because there /is/ a strong demand for it. When you think about it, though, that price is not so out of line. Remember that 18 cent gas sign on a pump, posted a while back? At the time that sign was installed, that 18 cents was about $2.66.

Getting back to supply and demand would be a mixed blessing, of course. The fear of oil's unreliability has killed the SUV grocery getter (HOORAY! I CAN SEE IN TRAFFIC NOW!), driven people to conserve, and driven the guv'mint to look a little harder at mass transit. It's driving people to move closer to work, also a Good Thing. If we could just hang on to those improvements, we'd feel a lot richer and happier when the times get good again. I'm afraid that if the oil goes back down, we'll just forget. Of course, at the same time, oil that is this high is not at all a good thing, not for people who heat with oil, not for transportation, and not for progress in general.

But at least the basement-dwelling troglodytes who crowed all over Usenet that America was DOOMED when gas went up to $5/gal have been proven utterly wrong. Unless that extra half dollar is a REAL dealbreaker. Remember them? (Remember Usenet? Sad [:(] )

 Currently president of: a slowly upgrading trainset fleet o'doom.
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Posted by ouengr on Tuesday, July 1, 2008 10:14 PM

I have been listening to the oil use and milage driven statistics adn both are down signifigantely throughout the world except in nations where the fuel price is subsidized.   I have read reports that expect the miles driven in the United States to be down 3% to 6%.  In addition the average milage per gallon of fuel is rising dramatically.  From what I have heard, the overall demand globally is down and headed lower. 

OPEC came out today and expressed concerns about the future supply due to a lack of investment.  The media jumped all over the story and claimed that this was justification for higher prices.  When you read more of the story, OPEC expressed concerns about justifying increased supply due to falling demand.  Apparently someone at OPEC is concerned the the prices have been too high for too long and that alternatives are being more feasible.  The US is livid and looking to any alternative to lower energy prices.  I  think that the price of oil will drop because the commidities market is an unjustifed bubble.  If it is not a bubble it will only be because the US has failed to develop its own resources.

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Posted by TheK4Kid on Tuesday, July 1, 2008 10:44 PM

Yep, life is tough all over.
My company downsized and cut my salary almost in half.

Now I only make $300,000 per year for doing essentially nothing( "im a campaign tactics consultant to the Democratic Party), but they really ticked me off when they took my 25 foot by 30 foot HO layout  out of the lunchroom and it was conveniently located next to the junk food machines.Now it's in the executives lounge next to the bar.
Then they took my taxpayer paid for SUV ( and gas too) away from me.
Now I have to walk almost 3 blocks to the LHS!!!
What a bummer when it rains!!!!

The final insult was when they told me I could no longer go over to the LHS shop and play with the trains over there or go railfanning on "company time."

They really cracked down on me!

 I start work at 9 am, go on morning break at 9:01 to 11:01, the go on lunch break from from 11:01 to 1:01, the work until 1:02, and go on aftrnoon break from 1:02 until 3:29 pm, then work until 3:30 pm, and then go home!

It's TOUGH GRUELING job, but somebody has to do it!

Dag nabbing Democrats, they'l take it all away from you fellas, so WATCH OUT!!!!

 

Hey looookeeeeee over there, there's John McCain!!!

Psssssst hey John, do you need a campaign tactics advisor???
You say you like my trains do you????
Hey John, come on over here , let's talk!!!!

 

You say I can put my trains in the lunchroom eh???
Yeah John, walking 3 blocks to the LHS is tough on an old man like me.
You say I can use the Lincoln Towncar over there eh???

It's full of gas too eh???
Oh, okay, if it runs low on fuel just use that John Doe taxpayer credit card to fill it back up you say?

 Yeah fellas it's just REAL TTOUGH all over!!!

 

 

IF ---- You all believe this I have an HO layout, triple decked, and 125 feet by 50 feet I'll sell you too!!!!

LOL!

 

 

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Posted by TheK4Kid on Tuesday, July 1, 2008 11:01 PM

Sorry guys, my sense of humor just took over and I couldbn't help myself!

 But I DO have a new idea on how to make BIG MONEY!!!!

 Sean Hannity gave me the idea. A NEW TRAIN named the 

"Stop O'---a Express!!!!

 

LOL!

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Posted by Bergie on Wednesday, July 2, 2008 9:44 AM

I think this topic has run its course, and since politics were just thrown into the ring (thanks to TheK4Kid), I'm locking it.

Bergie

Erik Bergstrom

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