It is a topic that always finds its way to this point, but has never seemed to be able to get past it. So, Howard, with my compliments and regrets, I'm going to close your thread.
-Crandell
In fact, I had consulted several hundred MR author's bios spanning a number of years since 2000 before first posting. While some were too brief to be of use, some failing to address how the initial interest arose, or were one sentence bio's of authors with already long association with the magazine, a very substantial number did cite the desired information. The breakdown of that data went as follows:
Electric trains in childhood 60%
Influenced by hobby mag/visit hobbyshop 20%
Family member in real railroading 12%
Other 7%
Other than having received Lionel, Flyer, Marx, or a scale train set as a present (Christmas most often cited), as I had pointed out very early on, hobby shops and the magazines obtained therein, turned out to be a very important element in the past for recruiting new hobbyists. This is a type of hands-on exposure that the Internet can not offer.
In the first place, surveys (mentioned in an earlier post of yours) are not scientifically valid polls, in part since the respondents are self selected. The same goes for the above, as well as the objection that a few hundred MR authors does not define the universe of model railroaders. I assume that I would be in the "other" category since what really got me going is the fact that we lived close to a D&RGW branch line when I was in kindergarten and I happened to be fascinated by the smoke belching monsters that kept its rails shiny. This was followed by a couple of years in Mojave during the final years of SP steam operation over Tehachapi and a visit to an club show at the Antelope Valley Fairgrounds where I found out that scale model railroading existed. The discovery of hobby shops and MR only reinforced what was already there.
I had trains in childhood as a result of my exposure to the real thing earlier, it wasn't a case that I got interested in trains with my first electric train set. I won't even presume to guess how others ACTUALLY came by their interest as opposed to what they might say in their bios. For instance, how many of those who say they were influenced by entering a hobby shop were actually interested in trains when they first walked in. Did they walk in alone or were they in the company of a relative who was already in the hobby?
You're not even asking the really interesting questions. How many who did have electric trains never entered the hobby subsequently? What proportion of the population that did have electric trains as a kid actually become model railroaders later? This would give some kind of info as to the relative influence of the electric train. How many of those who got electric trains were already interested in the prototype before they received the train set perhaps as a result of a parent recognizing the kid's interest and trying to encourage it in toy form since it also neatly coincided with the myth of the perfect family so artfully used as a marketing ploy by the folks at Lionel? Of course, Lionel was only exploiting the myth that was already out there.
The 12% who got into the hobby ostensibly as a result of a family member being a railroader is rather interesting. Unfortunately, that influence today is probably minimal given that railroad employment fell from about 1.5 million in 1947 to 224,000 in 2004, a factor of nearly 7. http://www.railserve.com/employment.html (you're not the only one who looks up things). Since the 12% figure represents approximately 1 in 8 model railroaders, it's a self-evident truth (you're evil, Andre) that we have to do something to compensate for the loss of a significant factor. Given the 60% figure you cited for electric trains as an influence, it's also a self-evident truth (Satan his own self stands in awestruck admiration at the depth of your evil, Andre) that what we gotta do is buy kids/grandkids train sets just as fast as our incomes will allow. Not only that, we've got to drag them into hobby shops whether they want to go or not. Naturally, we also have to buy them subscriptions to MR, RMC, CTT, Garden Railways, Trains, Railfan, and any other railroad/model railroad publication that we can. It's a self-evident truth, isn't it?
I'm doing my part. What are you doing? Or would you rather have the hobby die so that you can be proved right?
"Just the place for a Snark!" the Bellman cried,As he landed his crew with care;Supporting each man on the top of the tideBy a finger entwined in his hair.
"Just the place for a Snark! I have said it twice:That alone should encourage the crew.Just the place for a Snark! I have said it thrice:What i tell you three times is true."
Excerpt from "The Hunting Of The Snark" by Lewis Carroll
So, I now await the rush of countering facts and figures from those critical of my posts...not that I honestly expect to see anything other than more of the usual bovine scat.
You seem to have an unusual interest in bovine scat. Is there something you're not telling us?
Peace out,
Andre
CNJ831 wrote:...In fact, I had consulted several hundred MR author's bios spanning a number of years since 2000 before first posting. While some were too brief to be of use, some failing to address how the initial interest arose, or were one sentence bio's of authors with already long association with the magazine, a very substantial number did cite the desired information. The breakdown of that data went as follows:Electric trains in childhood 60%Influenced by hobby mag/visit hobbyshop 20%Family member in real railroading 12%Other 7% Other than having received Lionel, Flyer, Marx, or a scale train set as a present (Christmas most often cited), as I had pointed out very early on, hobby shops and the magazines obtained therein, turned out to be a very important element in the past for recruiting new hobbyists. This is a type of hands-on exposure that the Internet can not offer. So, I now await the rush of countering facts and figures from those critical of my posts...not that I honestly expect to see anything other than more of the usual bovine scat. CNJ831
CNJ831
That's interesting and indicates that among MR authors only 10% were introduced through the hobby shop (Assuming the magazine and hobby shop split 50-50). But the overwhelming number were through trains in their childhood. This would indicate that getting trains into Toy R Us is important.
Unfortunately, this type of survey is by it's nature not a representative sampling of model railroaders. It's also, probably age biased since those who write articles tend to have been in the hobby awhile.
Still and all, it does suggest that the hobby shop is not very important to the future of the hobby. But Thomas the Tank Engine is - I guess it's a good thing he's so popular.
Thanks for sharing
Paul
...In fact, I had consulted several hundred MR author's bios spanning a number of years since 2000 before first posting. While some were too brief to be of use, some failing to address how the initial interest arose, or were one sentence bio's of authors with already long association with the magazine, a very substantial number did cite the desired information. The breakdown of that data went as follows:
Going with the spirit of: "Now pay attention you might learn something!" I have to tell you that although your research is thorough and informative, it's not accurate. There is no way that every single model railroader has been interviewed to assess how he/she got in this hobby. The data you gathered can be categorized as a rough guesstimate and if this were a court of law, I'd call it circumstantial.
TONY
"If we never take the time, how can we ever have the time." - Merovingian (Matrix Reloaded)
jecorbett wrote: To quote Ronald Reagan, "Well, there you go again". You continue to insist that I present evidence to substantiate my position while you feel to express yours without any evidence of your own. You may well have offered evidence on other subjects in other threads but you have offered absolutely nothing of the sort in this thread. The fact is, neither of us has offered any evidence to substantiate our opinions and observations on this subject. Apparently it is OK for you to do so but you insist I provide more. Please explain the double standard.
To quote Ronald Reagan, "Well, there you go again". You continue to insist that I present evidence to substantiate my position while you feel to express yours without any evidence of your own. You may well have offered evidence on other subjects in other threads but you have offered absolutely nothing of the sort in this thread. The fact is, neither of us has offered any evidence to substantiate our opinions and observations on this subject. Apparently it is OK for you to do so but you insist I provide more. Please explain the double standard.
Another good quote is, "Now pay attention and you might learn something!" You will find that I do not post to this, or any other forum, regarding such a discussion without having first done my homework. I always have the facts that back me up at the ready. However, as I've said, facts around here mean little because of the group's refusal to accept anything regarding the hobby that is not absolutely all sunshine and roses. Folks here are in for some very rude awakenings over the course of the next ten years or so.
SpaceMouse wrote: Crox wrote:With posts like this and attitudes such as this I see a dim future for the hobby as why would anyone wish to participate if this is typical.Not to worry. All the seven dwarfs are represented in this hobby.
Crox wrote:With posts like this and attitudes such as this I see a dim future for the hobby as why would anyone wish to participate if this is typical.
Not to worry. All the seven dwarfs are represented in this hobby.
Ahhhhh, but who is who? and who decides?
Enjoy
Chip
Building the Rock Ridge Railroad with the slowest construction crew west of the Pecos.
CNJ831 wrote: jecorbett wrote: Let me make this perfectly clear. My objections are not to the opinions you express on this forum. My objections are the way you come in here on your high horse demanding that others who want to express their opinions back up those opinions with what you deem to be "verifiable facts" while you feel free to express your own view sans such facts. That is hypocrisy, pure and simple. To me, a verifiable fact to support your position would be a survey which indicates that signficant numbers of new modelers became interested in model railroading while visiting a hobby shop for non railroading items. The joke here is that the posting of actual numerical results of surveys appears to mean absolutely nothing toward substantiating a position here. I've posted valid figures more than once on differing subjects on this forum. However, in doing so, such numbers were immediately claimed to be not representative, bias, or irrelevant, even though based on published hobby sources others could consult for themselves, simply because they were counter to the group's general "opinion" of things. And, of course, no substantial or verifiable counter evidence is ever offered, just further personal opinion. Attempting to address any serious hobby matter here is very much like dealing with a group of small children - if the answers offered don't seem to agree with what most want things to be, then the answers are regarded as being untrue...no matter what evidence is provided. In this current thread, mere personal conjecture is taken to trump observation and numbers would undoubtedly do no better. Even more disappointing is that nothing in the way even observational counter evidence is offered, only that my observations be mistaken because they point toward an unpleasant situation for the hobby.I do not wish this to sound hostile but in the particular instance of your posts, you disagree with what I've said and insist that my take is not substantiated. So, I've asked repeatedly for you to explain and/or demonstrate how the Internet (or whatever you think will serve as a replacement for LHS) is, or will be, employed as a valid and successful means of introducing the hobby to those of the general public not previously exposed to model trains. If you could offer anything of substance, then perhaps one might be able to attempt to compare that to the job the vanishing hobbyshops have done in the past. So far, I've seen nothing from you other than complaining that my position is incorrect and lacks evidence. Will anything in the way of counter evidence, or of any substance at all that contributes to this thread's question, be forthcoming from you?CNJ831
jecorbett wrote: Let me make this perfectly clear. My objections are not to the opinions you express on this forum. My objections are the way you come in here on your high horse demanding that others who want to express their opinions back up those opinions with what you deem to be "verifiable facts" while you feel free to express your own view sans such facts. That is hypocrisy, pure and simple. To me, a verifiable fact to support your position would be a survey which indicates that signficant numbers of new modelers became interested in model railroading while visiting a hobby shop for non railroading items.
Let me make this perfectly clear. My objections are not to the opinions you express on this forum. My objections are the way you come in here on your high horse demanding that others who want to express their opinions back up those opinions with what you deem to be "verifiable facts" while you feel free to express your own view sans such facts. That is hypocrisy, pure and simple. To me, a verifiable fact to support your position would be a survey which indicates that signficant numbers of new modelers became interested in model railroading while visiting a hobby shop for non railroading items.
The joke here is that the posting of actual numerical results of surveys appears to mean absolutely nothing toward substantiating a position here. I've posted valid figures more than once on differing subjects on this forum. However, in doing so, such numbers were immediately claimed to be not representative, bias, or irrelevant, even though based on published hobby sources others could consult for themselves, simply because they were counter to the group's general "opinion" of things. And, of course, no substantial or verifiable counter evidence is ever offered, just further personal opinion. Attempting to address any serious hobby matter here is very much like dealing with a group of small children - if the answers offered don't seem to agree with what most want things to be, then the answers are regarded as being untrue...no matter what evidence is provided. In this current thread, mere personal conjecture is taken to trump observation and numbers would undoubtedly do no better. Even more disappointing is that nothing in the way even observational counter evidence is offered, only that my observations be mistaken because they point toward an unpleasant situation for the hobby.
I do not wish this to sound hostile but in the particular instance of your posts, you disagree with what I've said and insist that my take is not substantiated. So, I've asked repeatedly for you to explain and/or demonstrate how the Internet (or whatever you think will serve as a replacement for LHS) is, or will be, employed as a valid and successful means of introducing the hobby to those of the general public not previously exposed to model trains. If you could offer anything of substance, then perhaps one might be able to attempt to compare that to the job the vanishing hobbyshops have done in the past. So far, I've seen nothing from you other than complaining that my position is incorrect and lacks evidence. Will anything in the way of counter evidence, or of any substance at all that contributes to this thread's question, be forthcoming from you?
With posts like this and attitudes such as this I see a dim future for the hobby as why would anyone wish to participate if this is typical.
loathar wrote:Craig- (just curious?) Do you have a brick&mortar store that's open to the public? I've heard stories of people trying to start on-line only stores and the distributors wouldn't sell to them without a separate building and address. Just wondering how true this is??
About 25 years ago, a fellow model railroader got an idea to buy wholesale from Walthers by starting his own hobby run out of his house. He intended to sell some goods to his friends that way but his main purpose was buy stuff for his own layout through his "store". He hit a brick wall when Walthers asked to see a picture of his store. Apparently, he wasn't the first one who got that idea. There was no online commerce back then but there were mail order houses. I don't know what the rules were back then as far as starting phone and mail order only businesses.
IRONROOSTER wrote: jecorbett wrote: ...A few might stumble onto the hobby through other means, such as through an LHS, an internet search, or as was my case, when I came across an issue of Model Railroader back in the mid 1970s. ... Yep, that's how I got started. Came across the Nov 71 Model Railroader in the PX newstand in Germany.
jecorbett wrote: ...A few might stumble onto the hobby through other means, such as through an LHS, an internet search, or as was my case, when I came across an issue of Model Railroader back in the mid 1970s. ...
...A few might stumble onto the hobby through other means, such as through an LHS, an internet search, or as was my case, when I came across an issue of Model Railroader back in the mid 1970s. ...
Yep, that's how I got started. Came across the Nov 71 Model Railroader in the PX newstand in Germany.
MR is how I got started, too. I was browsing magazines in the school library in 1969, picked up an innocent looking periodical, nothing has been the same since then. Perhaps MR should have a warning label.
Phil, I'm not a rocket scientist; they are my students.
Jimmydieselfan wrote:I think the main reason that hobby shops will keep on closing is the fact that almost all of them charge MSRP. Those prices are almost always 30-40% more than ''internet prices''.
I think the main reason that hobby shops will keep on closing is the fact that almost all of them charge MSRP. Those prices are almost always 30-40% more than ''internet prices''.
I recently spoke to the owner of a HobbyTown about his prices. He said they are set by corporate HQ. The HQ sets prices based on the distributors. (Horizon in this case) He said Horizons dealer prices are not good at all. HobbyTown is negotiating with Tower Hobbies right now trying to get a better deal so they can lower their prices. I wonder how much of this problem lies with the big distributors and not the "greedy" LHS?? If a big nationwide chain like HT is having trouble getting good prices, what chance does a single mom&pop store have?The owner said he's love to carry more train stuff, but it doesn't sell at the prices he's forced to charge. It was a pretty enlightening conversation...
jecorbett wrote:...A few might stumble onto the hobby through other means, such as through an LHS, an internet search, or as was my case, when I came across an issue of Model Railroader back in the mid 1970s. ...
Howard Zane wrote: Hey guys............come on over and play with the electric trains, then youse guys may choose your weapons.When I wrote the original post for this chat group it was just after our spring show, and I was indeed concerned about our future. The thrust was to wake up and smell the outhouse.All of my comments about the future are indceed conjecture, but based on decades in the hobby........many being as a professional. If facts are to be compared, then there must be a fallacy somewhere. To me a fact must be a fact.................otherwise pure conjecture!!I'm gonna stand down, unless something profound is posted..................got a railroad to run!!!HZ
Hey guys............come on over and play with the electric trains, then youse guys may choose your weapons.
When I wrote the original post for this chat group it was just after our spring show, and I was indeed concerned about our future. The thrust was to wake up and smell the outhouse.
All of my comments about the future are indceed conjecture, but based on decades in the hobby........many being as a professional. If facts are to be compared, then there must be a fallacy somewhere. To me a fact must be a fact.................otherwise pure conjecture!!
I'm gonna stand down, unless something profound is posted..................got a railroad to run!!!
HZ
I doubt any of us really have a problem with anything you said in your first post or in subsequent posts, Howard. Your words are an expression of legitimate concern. What causes the real brouhaha around here is the incessant drumbeat of gloom and doom by a single individual who claims to be the world's greatest living authority on the hobby past and present.
CNJ831 wrote:The joke here is that the posting of actual numerical results of surveys appears to mean absolutely nothing toward substantiating a position here. I've posted valid figures more than once on differing subjects on this forum. However, in doing so, such numbers were immediately claimed to be not representative, bias, or irrelevant, even though based on published hobby sources others could consult for themselves, simply because they were counter to the group's general "opinion" of things. And, of course, no substantial or verifiable counter evidence is ever offered, just further personal opinion. Attempting to address any serious hobby matter here is very much like dealing with a group of small children - if the answers offered don't seem to agree with what most want things to be, then the answers are regarded as being untrue...no matter what evidence is provided. In this current thread, mere personal conjecture is taken to trump observation and numbers would undoubtedly do no better. Even more disappointing is that nothing in the way even observational counter evidence is offered, only that my observations be mistaken because they point toward an unpleasant situation for the hobby.I do not wish this to sound hostile but in the particular instance of your posts, you disagree with what I've said and insist that my take is not substantiated. So, I've asked repeatedly for you to explain and/or demonstrate how the Internet (or whatever you think will serve as a replacement for LHS) is, or will be, employed as a valid and successful means of introducing the hobby to those of the general public not previously exposed to model trains. If you could offer anything of substance, then perhaps one might be able to attempt to compare that to the job the vanishing hobbyshops have done in the past. So far, I've seen nothing from you other than complaining that my position is incorrect and lacks evidence. Will anything in the way of counter evidence, or of any substance at all that contributes to this thread's question, be forthcoming from you?CNJ831
Your whole argument is that hobby shops have been a fertile ground for recruiting new modelers who don't already have an interest in the hobby. In an earlier post you claimed this is self evident which it most certainly is not. First of all, you have to get the kid into the LHS. If he's not coming in for the trains, he's coming in for something that he is interested in. I suppose it is possible that such a kid could see something in the model train section that could catch his eye and get him started in model railroading, but I would wager few come to the hobby that way. I would argue that it is just as possible that a kid is going to get hooked on model railroading through the internet. Anyone who has ever googled for information or used some other search engine knows you get a lot of unintended hits and sometimes these turn out to be more interesting than what was initially sought. Just as it is possible for a kid to get hooked on trains by a wandering eye in a LHS, he could accidentally get his interest sparked while searching for something else online. I doubt we are going to get a lot of new recruits to the hobby through such serendipity, whether it be at the LHS or online. I think most of the new blood will be brought into the hobby by friends or relatives introducing them to it. A few might stumble onto the hobby through other means, such as through an LHS, an internet search, or as was my case, when I came across an issue of Model Railroader back in the mid 1970s. However, I think it is quite a stretch to suggest that the closing of hobby shops is going to mean the loss of the most effective means of recruiting new modelers. I just don't believe it happens that way very often.
There are a few things an LHS can do that on-line retailers can't and I really think they should exploit these opportunities:
Service: Howard touched on how good and how poor it can be. A hobby store should be more than a warehouse of train stuff. People go to businesses where they feel valued and validated. Shop owners should show an interest in their customers and do everything they can to make them successful. A LHS should never forget that it costs a customer time and fuel to visit their store - they should come away with something (at least a good feeling) every time they visit.
I urge LHSs to be innovative, too. Here are a couple of suggestions:
The other place where an LHS can win is shipping time. Keep track of how much you sell and of which products. Learn to predict when you'll run out and order in time to restock before the bin is empty. On those occasions that the bin is empty, offer to have the item shipped directly to the customer's home and eat the shipping cost. You may lose a couple of bucks, but you'll get it to them faster than they can get it online - you'll build loyalty and keep a customer.
Many interesting comments and suggestions. The real question is what venues will keep our hobby healthy.
Like doctors and lawyers where 50% graduate in the bottom half of their class; hobby shops, train shows and whatevers are quite similar. I could literally write volumes on my experiences in hobby shops. For 9 years I drove a corporate airplane for a major company. In my brain (flight) bag was always a Model Railroader magazine. Layovers were plentiful and in just about every state except the big one in the middle of the Pacific. Any ground time that exceeded 4 hours found me in a borrowed car or cab visting the local hobby shop. Some were quite good....well stocked and with friendly counter folks................others...."What the hell are you doing here" looks.
One shop, actually near by in Silver Spring...........the owner would toss a Walthers catalog at me upon entering! "Go find what you need!" and go on with what he was doing not giving a tinker's *** if I left or stayed. This idiot did not last long and rightly so.
We are all ambassadors for our hobby be it show promoter, shop owner, club member, or just sharing your layout with others and the public!
About the argument that many have made about kids and whatevers being exposed and turned on to this hobby through web sites..........I feel is greatly flawed. Kids from 3 to 103 have to see items in the flesh to have the seed planted. I also realize that today's youngster lacks somewhat in one to one communicative skills due to on line everythings, but I feel they must have verbal contact from someone already in this hobby for their interest to take hold and continue.
I greatly understand how important it is to find the best price, and many times these will be found on line. I also understand the frustrations when entering an understocked shop with full retail prices and aloof sales people. My suggestion..............FIND ANOTHER SHOP! In my area (central Maryland), we are lucky to have several good shops, Tommy Gilbert has won most if not all of my business by his wonderful service. He is 80 miles north west, and 90% is done through the mail. We also have Peach Creek, Moose Caboose, Mail Bag, M.B.Klein, and others........all excellent and I'm sure I could have received equal service from them............just Tommy made an extreme sales effort for my business and his pitch was excellent and it was the service issue, not the price which turned me his way.
I doubt seriously that by clicking on a "shopping cart" will result in this kind of service. This hobby is more than buying trains at the best price on line............it is about people and sharing ideas and yes...........bestowing our knowledge and experience on newbies and possible newbies.
Happy choo choos and thought for the day...."It is better to be seen than viewed" At my age, this has some meaning.
[/i]In short, it is illogical to conclude that interest in model railroading is waning because so many LHSes are closing their doors. It is probably more accurate to say that so many LHSes are closing their doors because interest in model railroading and other hands on hobbies is waning. [/i]
It's probably more accurate to say either that LHS's are closing their doors because the owner is retiring and can't find a buyer for the shop or that the person didn't know what he was doing in the first place. As others have pointed out, the sure way for a business to fail in the first year or so is under-capitalization.
Other than that, I pretty much agree with you.
selector wrote: You make a good point, Craig, but if a person only has so much time in a 24 hour period, and they are largely consumed with exposure of self on a communication device (the new society), something else has to give. Studies are still required by law in most jurisdictions, and a body will demand to eat and to defecate...those things will not change, I agree...but the market for "free time" and "free money" is changing. Hobbies may still commmand some attention and money, but it won't be the market that the hand-helds of this kind can command.-Crandell
You make a good point, Craig, but if a person only has so much time in a 24 hour period, and they are largely consumed with exposure of self on a communication device (the new society), something else has to give. Studies are still required by law in most jurisdictions, and a body will demand to eat and to defecate...those things will not change, I agree...but the market for "free time" and "free money" is changing. Hobbies may still commmand some attention and money, but it won't be the market that the hand-helds of this kind can command.
I hear you, but if I look back to my youth in the 60s/70s, only one of my hordes of friends was interested in hobbies to the degree I was/am. (We are still friends today despite a 1000 mile separation. He still models today as does his 11 year-old.)
My point is, there never have been very many of us serious hobbyist-types in the general population anyway.
The trend of youth moving away from hobbies because of other distractions has always existed as acknowledged many times on these forums but if that creative/hobbyist spark is in your DNA, you always come back to it.
You'll just be buying it online.
I'll bet $5 on it -- check back in 20 years!
Craig
DMW
CNJ831 wrote: jecorbett wrote: What you just posted hardly qualifies as verifiable data. These are your observations and opinions. You are perfectly entitled to hold these opinions and express them on this forum but then you chastise others when they state their observations and opinions without facts to back them up. There are no verifiable facts or data in your post. Stating that something is self evident does not make it so. You are playing by a double standard. If you are going to demand that others present what you call verifiable facts when stating their positions, you should demand no less of yourself. Not verifiable facts...you can't be serious. Are not hobbyshops in business to supply the needs of those with hobbies? Do not hobbies include such items as model cars kits, coin collecting albums, Pine Derby cars, RC cars and a host of other similar items? Have not young people always been the traget consumers for the majority of these products? Is it necessary that I cite the stock of several LHS to prove that they are in business for this purpose?Regarding the widely recognized aspects of human nature, is it truly called for to cite texts on human psychology to affirm that for tens of thousands of years man has been a creature whose world revolves around curiosity, the noticing of motion, bright colors and sounds? By virtue of that fact, can there be a better salesman, or a more logical choice, for garnering the attention of customers than a colorful, moving, chugging-tooting-clanging train display in the LHS? J.L.Cowen knew this over 100 years ago and made tens of millions from Lionel via it. Need I say more?Now look at any poll, hobby survey, or compilation of author bio's from MR, addressing a person's initial contact with model trains. Examples that have appeared here and others are to be found on various forums. I'd think most of us had seen some and I can certainly list examples if need be. They generally indicate around 3/4 of all adult model railroaders point to having had electric trains of some sort as a child at Christmas, had a good friend who had them, or perhaps a relative involved in model trains at some stage in their early years. The majority of the remainder often recall having their interest spurred by seeing holiday train displays in stores and shops as kids. Personally, I have never heard of anyone walking into this hobby cold. Exposure is the key from which any personal interest in model trains springs.All the above are self evident to almost anyone. So how then does the Internet approach, equal, or trump, any of these for exposing the general public to model trains today, or in the future?CNJ831
jecorbett wrote: What you just posted hardly qualifies as verifiable data. These are your observations and opinions. You are perfectly entitled to hold these opinions and express them on this forum but then you chastise others when they state their observations and opinions without facts to back them up. There are no verifiable facts or data in your post. Stating that something is self evident does not make it so. You are playing by a double standard. If you are going to demand that others present what you call verifiable facts when stating their positions, you should demand no less of yourself.
What you just posted hardly qualifies as verifiable data. These are your observations and opinions. You are perfectly entitled to hold these opinions and express them on this forum but then you chastise others when they state their observations and opinions without facts to back them up. There are no verifiable facts or data in your post. Stating that something is self evident does not make it so. You are playing by a double standard. If you are going to demand that others present what you call verifiable facts when stating their positions, you should demand no less of yourself.
Not verifiable facts...you can't be serious.
Are not hobbyshops in business to supply the needs of those with hobbies? Do not hobbies include such items as model cars kits, coin collecting albums, Pine Derby cars, RC cars and a host of other similar items? Have not young people always been the traget consumers for the majority of these products? Is it necessary that I cite the stock of several LHS to prove that they are in business for this purpose?
Regarding the widely recognized aspects of human nature, is it truly called for to cite texts on human psychology to affirm that for tens of thousands of years man has been a creature whose world revolves around curiosity, the noticing of motion, bright colors and sounds? By virtue of that fact, can there be a better salesman, or a more logical choice, for garnering the attention of customers than a colorful, moving, chugging-tooting-clanging train display in the LHS? J.L.Cowen knew this over 100 years ago and made tens of millions from Lionel via it. Need I say more?
Now look at any poll, hobby survey, or compilation of author bio's from MR, addressing a person's initial contact with model trains. Examples that have appeared here and others are to be found on various forums. I'd think most of us had seen some and I can certainly list examples if need be. They generally indicate around 3/4 of all adult model railroaders point to having had electric trains of some sort as a child at Christmas, had a good friend who had them, or perhaps a relative involved in model trains at some stage in their early years. The majority of the remainder often recall having their interest spurred by seeing holiday train displays in stores and shops as kids. Personally, I have never heard of anyone walking into this hobby cold. Exposure is the key from which any personal interest in model trains springs.
All the above are self evident to almost anyone.
So how then does the Internet approach, equal, or trump, any of these for exposing the general public to model trains today, or in the future?
Let me make this perfectly clear. My objections are not to the opinions you express on this forum. My objections are the way you come in here on your high horse demanding that others who want to express their opinions back up those opinions with what you deem to be "verifiable facts" while you feel free to express your own view sans such facts. That is hypocrisy, pure and simple. To me, a verifiable fact to support your position would be a survey which indicates that signficant numbers of new modelers became interested in model railroading while visiting a hobby shop for non railroading items. In lieu of that, anecdotal evidence for the same might also bolster your argument. You have provided neither. If you are not going to do so, then you ought not to be so condescending to those who offer differing views simply because they offer no more verifiable data backing up those views than you do.
As for the substance of your arguments, tbey are hardly self evident as you claimed in a prior post. There are any number of ways a young person could get their first exposure to model railroading, and it is my educated guess that those who got hooked on the hobby because they saw railroading items at an LHS while shopping for something else would be way down the list. You speak of LHSes as if they are all inclusive of every type of hobby imaginable and that they naturally are fertile grounds for inspiring new recruits to the hobby. In fact, the LHSes I am familiar with are very diverse in the hobbies that they cater to. The LHS I do most of my business with deals only in trains, so a youngster who is not already interested in trains is unlikely to ever set foot in it. A few miles away is a more general purpose LHS which in addition to model railroading supplies, carries, model cars and ships, RC planes and boats, and military modeling supplies. While it is possible that a youngster might enter the establishment with an interest in one of the above and suddenly be drawn to MR stuff, I find that to be highly unlikely. First of all, I rarely see younger modelers in there for any reason. Most of the customers I see in that place are adults of various ages who already are committed to a particular hobby. Second, when I go into that place, I know what it is I want and I know where it is. I walk right by the other stuff and never give it a look. I suspect most other hobbyists, regardless of age, will do the same.
In short, it is illogical to conclude that interest in model railroading is waning because so many LHSes are closing their doors. It is probably more accurate to say that so many LHSes are closing their doors because interest in model railroading and other hands on hobbies is waning.
CNJ831 wrote:Paul, what evidence can you point to that supports your views? Exactly why would anyone without any previously existing interest in model railroading come to this, or any similar site, in the first place?
While again, I agree with most of the post, I have to agree with Paul here. My son got a train set for Christmas that came from an outlet store. On December 27th, I jumped on the net and found this place. Three months later I bought my first MR.
There is so much more information here than 3 months worth of MRs. My town had no hobby shops and when I looked after the fact, my local library and bookstore had no books on Model Railroading.
I always look to the web first.
I just don't believe our hobby hinges on the local Hobby shop. A great many young Model Railroaders have prior exposure to the hobby from their Parents or Grand Parents.
Also...to the forum poster that spoke about How kids could get exposure to the Hobby by going to their local Hobby Shop to buy Kites, Pinecars and Coin Collecting supplies: Ummm I don't know what century you live in, but here in the 21st century Kids have zero interest in such things. If it's not X-box, Facebook, Jackass the movie or southpark most Kids could care less.
Our local Scout chapter closed about five years ago due to lack of interest, I haven't seen a Kid fly a kite in Fifteen years, and if people think our Hobby is facing demise they need to check out Scale Model Building, R/C Modeling or Slot Car racing. These guys have been forced to buy from catalogs and off the net for years because their hobbies are considered "niche" at best.
I just don't think that some rotund shop owner that insist on charging MSRP for stock that is years old, and uses the phrase 'Fircking Kids" any time anyone under Thirty enters his shop is the ambassadors of the hobby like some insist they are. I would argue that our local clubs serve this function, and for the most part they do this extremely well. Our local club has a very active youth membership, and many of these kids (Mostly between the ages of Fourteen and Seventeen) never even considered that Model Railroading could be more than setting up a Choo Choo around the tree once a year.
Our Hobby has survived and even thrived under much harsher conditions. I remember reading in MR on the experiences of a Modeler and his club in the Former soviet Union, and marveled over some of the beautiful scratch built pieces the gentleman created using whatever he could scrounge, and the challenges these guys faced even meeting. I wonder how some of our forum members would handled being questioned by the government for just getting together with friends to discuss Model Railroading. Lamenting over the demise of our Hobby because there isn't a shop in every town is a very American reaction.
Is our hobby waning? Maybe it's hard to tell. A good many modelers today have their own layouts, shop on the Internet exclusively and refuse to anywhere near a Rail meets, because they don't fit into the stereotypical Model Railroader mold. (I.E. Middle aged white guy with a 250 K home and a endless stream of cash to throw at his hobby)
I'll start worrying about the demise of our hobby when Athearn, Atlas, Walthers and Lionel stop producing product, and even if that does happen I will still be a Model Railroader, if I can't buy em anymore I'll start building them, and if I didn't have that kind of passion for the Hobby, I would find something else to do.
For a change, Andre, we are largely in agreement. Hobby shops have become very much an afterthought in our society. High rents no longer allow them occupancy in the high-traffic downtowns of cities, or in large malls. Those that try are very short lived today. Likewise, 95% of kids do not engage in any sort of craft hobbies, so the potential for exposure to trains at the LHS is small but it is still the only viable venue.
Incidentally, the shop I frequent most is a general purpose hobby shop but nevertheless has two display layouts: one for HO, the other tin-plate. I've often seen folks in the store for other interests amble over to the HO train layout and watch fascinated for several minutes, often commenting that they never realized there was anything like this beyond Lionel. Incidentally, this particular shop does sell books on coins, as well as various collector albums to store them in. While not a place for a serious numismatist, for dabblers in common American coins and such, it's still quite suitable.
As to train shows serving as a media for exposure, with the exception of one or two examples I can point to, over the past 20 years I've seen a dramatic drop off in the attendence of most...and the decided majority of those folks staying home were already hobbyists. Here in the Northeast many shows have closed their doors for good, including some of the big traveling shows, due to falling gates. The all important free advertising in the pages of MR has been lost, leaving RMC the only other major magazine with coverage. Once a place to get bargins, most train shows today have items priced fairly close (sometimes even above) the LHS. It is eBay that has largely replaced shows as a source of low cost hobby products and answers for much of the decline in shows. With their recent track record and the rising fees charged by the show venues, I give most train shows less than a decade before they disappear. Even Howard admits the demographics of his great show (back in the 80's and 90's by far the greatest train shows I've ever attended...and that includes the Springfield ones) have distinctly changed over the years.
While it is laudable that most of us attempt to expose our children and grandchilden to the world of model railroading, the likely return rate will probably be around 1% of what interest was in kids of the Boomer generation. Already the general public looks upon model railroaders very differently than they did years ago. Once it was a hobby the public recognized as including people like Joe DiMaggio, Frank Sinatra, or Johnny Carson and when depicted on the silver screen, we were genial, often lovable older characters, or at the worse, somewhat airheaded. Yes, there are still famous public figures who are modelers but the media insists on downplaying that as much as possible, as if it were a pox. And look how we are presented in the movies, or on TV, nowadays - as latent psychopaths, perverts and megalomaniacs (see recent threads here regarding model railroading in today's movies). Don't think that this impression is lost on the viewing public. We may be at the beginnings of an incredible mutlimedia electronic age but it is unlikely to be an enviroment supportive of model railroading.
If an LHS closes, then it's because they didn't adjust their business practices to reflect modern times. I've heard of a few hobby shops that have closed their brick and mortar store to become an online only entity. This to me implies that they have had better sucess with online sales than with people walking into their shops when they had it. Hobby shops like this will no doubt have more sucess than a hobby shop that refuses to invest in going online.
For big purchases, I look online. My first priority is to save money where I can, after all, this is a hobby and not a charity. I won't go to a full price LHS to make a major purchase when I can find the same item for a lot less on the net.
Not at all. It is perfectly self evident that younger people will frequent a LHS (if one is available) for innumerable reasons: the purchase of plastic vehicle model kits, kites, school project supplies, Pine Car models for Scouting, et al. But at the same time it places them in an enviroment where model trains are distinctly evident.
Self evident, how? Just from personal experience, the first time I went to an LHS was AFTER I had been to a club open house at the Antelope Valley Fair in the early 1950's. I'll grant you I was already interested in trains (hard not to be since we were living in Mojave at the time), but I had no idea such heavens on earth actually existed as I was only about 7 at the time. Your typical LHS is not located in the venue most youngsters are familiar with today, the suburban mall. Mall real estate is expensive and not conducive to success in the hobby business. Witness the demise of "The Great Train Store", a hobby chain that started with with high hopes and ended up going under fairly rapidly. My own LHS is located in an old strip mall with an Ace Hardware store, a barber shop, a beauty salon, a Japanese restaurant, a liquor store and a travel agency. Fortunately, it's at the intersection of two busy streets, the area is not in any way "depressed", does quite a mail order business even without a 'Net presence and was founded by someone with quite a bit of hobby AND business experience. It's also one of those fortunate few hobby (actually trains only) stores where the original proprietor retired and his son took over. That rarely happens and it's the only instance of which I'm aware. There was a very large (almost big box) general purpose hobby store up in the Palo Alto area that closed within the last few years simply because the owner wanted to retire and couldn't find anyone willing to take the thing over. For a general purpose hobby shop, the store was extremely well stocked with train items. Hobby shops are most often sole proprietorships and if the proprietor can't find a buyer when he wants to retire, the thing will close even if the store is doing a reasonably good business.
Just as a side note, traffic in my favorite LHS increases fairly substantially when there are train shows in the area and quite a few first-timers show up. Although it's only anecdotal evidence, it would seem that the local train show is more instrumental in getting new people inside the doors than walk-in (or bike-in) traffic.
When in such a shop, one's natural instinct is to spend some time looking around at items which might otherwise be outside one's current interests. It is the nature of humankind to be curious and attracted by action, bright colors and sound (thus the enormous popularity of video games today). In a shop that includes perhaps an operating layout(s) with a sound system, display cabinets containing rows of colorful locomotives, and racks of magazines with strikingly beautiful images of model railroads, it is easy to grab the viewer's attention in that direction (in a hobby shop, model trains are likely to be the only major product actually in motion). Exposure can lead to sparking an interest in a new area and for model railroading exposure is the one and only key to generating any new interest in this hobby, at least in any quantity. Such interest simply does not come out of the blue.
You been in a general purpose hobby shop lately? Most of the time, trains are something of an afterthought. It's more likely you'll find an operating layout in a specialty train store. They're also the ones that have rows of colorful locomotives, and racks of model railroad magazines. As for the age of the customers, even in the general purpose hobby shop I've found that the majority of the customers are those with the disposable income to spend. If kids get trains, it's because adults purchase them. My first exposure to scale model railroading (after the club open house mentioned in a previous paragraph) was because my dad bought me a Mantua Little Six kit, a Silver Streak caboose kit an oval of track and a power pack for Christmas. One of the reasons that most model railroaders are Boomers is that we've had the time to accumulate enough to be able to afford the hobby.
Conversely, please tell us what possible reason can you offer for individuals interested in kites, coin collecting, or the Pine Car Derby, to flock to a model railroad related website and thereby be exposed for the very first time to our hobby? Put bluntly, there is none whatever. And that's where the Internet fails miserably as a recruiter.
Why would anyone interested in kites, etc., lose interest in their hobby and convert to model railroading in a "Saul On The Road To Baghdad" moment even if the store had an operating layout? Certainly not coin collectors, who would be going to numismatic stores rather than a hobby shop. Kites are available other than in hobby shops. As for Pine Car Derby, I'd never heard of it until it was mentioned here. I Googled to see what I could find and the first site to appear was A2Z Hobbies in Elmhurst, IL. They have trains, sort of (Lionel and Bachmann and not a lot of that). http://www.a2zhobbies.com/model_trains.html They also carry a few numismatic supplies, sort of. http://www.a2zhobbies.com/coin_collecting.html Why, I don't know since they don't appear to carry that which coin collectors actually collect, which is coins. A look around the site indicates they don't carry much of anything in any depth with the possible exception of RC airplanes and plastic kits. They've lasted 12 years, which is an indication that they're actually selling stuff, but they carry such a mishmash of items that it would seem they can't really decide what they are. But I digress.
As a stand-alone recruiting tool, the Internet certainly isn't going to do it. First comes awareness, usually obtained at train shows, or, if a kid, having a parent or grandparent interested in the hobby. Sometimes awareness sparks interest, sometimes not. If interest is sparked, and a trip to an LHS ensues with an initial purchase, then the Internet can follow. Kids are pretty computer literate today (my 7 year old granddaughter certainly is for her age). Just for a giggle, I Googled the word "trains" to see what came up. The first site is Amtrak. The second one is www.trains.com/ Lo and behold, a website with 5 (count 'em) publications listed and a bunch of train related forums. Hallelujah! I tried "model trains" and while this site wasn't first, it was on the first page, along with Walthers, several online train stores, Atlas, the NMRA, Lionel, and eBay. IOW, with minimal knowledge of the hobby, it is quite easy to find interesting sites to nurture a growing interest. Of course, the same can be said for Pine Car Derby if interest in that is sparked by initial exposure. In any case, one's first exposure to model railroading is not likely to be a hobby shop unless a parent or grandparent takes you along. My nearly 4 year old granddaughter's first exposure was at the age of 18 months when I took her with me on an expedition. She was quite fascinated and I bought her a Thomas push around train to play with. Whether or not that will translate into a full-blown hobby down the line, I can't say. She, her 7 year old cousin and her 2 1/2 year old cousin (he's obsessed with Thomas to the point where he even gives Thomas names to the prototype) have all been exposed because I saw to it and the 9 month old grandson will soon get his first exposure. Again, whether or not any or all of them adopt the hobby remains to be seen. At least an effort is being made to spark an interest instead of incessantly wringing my hands at the imminent demise of the hobby.