The demise of model railroading…………

[jfugate]

I don't need any crystal ball to tell that the content of this news release indicates nothing that can be regarded as particularly promising, let alone reflecting some great boom in the hobby's popularity. Quite honestly, I find it unfortunate and disappointing that you would attempt to mislead readers here that somehow it did.

CNJ831 

So if I post a data point that doesn't agree with your opinion now I'm being sneaky and underhanded am I?

I seem to recall one somewhat questionable strategy in a debate is when you can't refute some hard data you then revert to personal attacks.

Too bad it's come to this ... you'd think we were talking about politics or religion instead of some hobby pastime.

[Shilshole]

Go back 2-3 years on this forum and you will find the same arguments and discussions going on about the hobby's future. That's not changed.

But then if you go online and google "Model trains sales comeback" you get links to news that hobby sales have grown up to 40% in the last two years.

If we're all so smart with our crystal balls, why didn't the posts 3 years ago from the so-called hobby history experts predict this turn of events?

Now how about passing on to posters what the real content of that Reuters article was, Joe?

In fact, it dealt specifically with a comeback for tinplate reported by Lionel, who has had a dismal sales record to the general public in recent years. There is no mention of scale model railroading in the story, nor any claim whatever of any resurgence therein.

Except, of course, for the quote of 'resurgence' by the managing editor of some obscure scale model railroading magazine:

Dick Christianson, managing editor of Model Railroader magazine, said the resurgence in trains would probably start up a whole new, younger generation of model railroaders.
"One day they'll remember they had a train as a kid and say, 'Hey, I wonder if Mom has that in her attic somewhere'," he said.

I don't need any crystal ball to tell that the content of this news release indicates nothing that can be regarded as particularly promising, let alone reflecting some great boom in the hobby's popularity. Quite honestly, I find it unfortunate and disappointing that you would attempt to mislead readers here that somehow it did.

Just in case you missed it:

Dick Christianson, managing editor of Model Railroader magazine, said the resurgence in trains would probably start up a whole new, younger generation of model railroaders.
"One day they'll remember they had a train as a kid and say, 'Hey, I wonder if Mom has that in her attic somewhere'," he said.

HTH.  HAND. 

[IRONROOSTER]

Sheesh...a number of hard core modellers could have passed on, the hobby could have had a resurgence or it could have vanished forever...all within the time it has taken to build up this agonizingly long and pointless thread.

Don't you folks have anything better to talk about

Ahhhh, I see by your question that you are a newcomer - welcome.

Be sure to tune in next month when we go this again - same folks, same arguments, same anectodal evidence, same conclusions.  

In this rapidly changing world it's comforting to know that here is one rock we can all cling to that never changes. 

Enjoy

Paul 

[BlueHillsCPR]

Ahhhh, I see by your question that you are a newcomer - welcome.

Be sure to tune in next month when we go this again - same folks, same arguments, same anectodal evidence, same conclusions.  

In this rapidly changing world it's comforting to know that here is one rock we can all cling to that never changes. 

Enjoy

Paul 

 

HAHAHA!  Thanks for that Paul.  The most entertaining and informative post I've read in this thread so far!

[Dave Vollmer]

Ahhhh, I see by your question that you are a newcomer - welcome.

Be sure to tune in next month when we go this again - same folks, same arguments, same anectodal evidence, same conclusions.  

In this rapidly changing world it's comforting to know that here is one rock we can all cling to that never changes. 

Enjoy

Paul 

Amen, brother!!!

[tomikawaTT]

Ahhhh, I see by your question that you are a newcomer - welcome.

Be sure to tune in next month when we go this again - same folks, same arguments, same anectodal evidence, same conclusions.  

In this rapidly changing world it's comforting to know that here is one rock we can all cling to that never changes. 

Enjoy

Paul 

Amen, brother!!!

Paul, Dave and any other adult present -

Let's all duck over to the Barn and have a brew.  Let the children of all ages argue among themselves.

Beware of insisting on the last word.  You may get it.

Chuck (modeling Central Japan in September, 1964 - no matter what)

[andrechapelon]

Sheesh...a number of hard core modellers could have passed on, the hobby could have had a resurgence or it could have vanished forever...all within the time it has taken to build up this agonizingly long and pointless thread.

Don't you folks have anything better to talk about

Actually, I'm retired, my wife and I are trying to get our new house together and in a short while, we'll be working on sprucing up the old place as a rental. All my model railroad stuff is packed up so it's going to be a while before I can get back to it and go onto something more productive. Despite the work involved in the move, I have occasional moments to engage in activities that might seem unproductive to the uninitiated. OK, so they ARE unproductive. I'm retired. I don't need to be productive all the time.

And you? If it's it's agonizingly long and pointless, why contribute(?) to it in the first place.

I'm kinda enjoying this agonizingly long and pointless thread, so no, at the moment I have nothing better to talk about. I'll let the others speak for themselves as to why they are similarly engaged.

NOTE to CNJ re: the supply of 59 year old men (give or take) who are presumably the very rock upon which the hobby stands. From the demographic data I have at my disposal, the supply of 59 year old men (presumably the average age of modelers) will actually continue to increase between now and 2016 and will remain relatively stable until 2022, when it will begin falling. However, it won't go to zero (barring a killer asteroid or something like that).

Incidentally, some of us old guys like to share our love of trains with our grandkids and are buying trains for them and not just for ourselves. Now that may not convert those grandkids to model railroaders, but it's still better to light one candle than to curse the darkness. 

I should give it up as it won't do any good, but to quote George Patton (or at least George C. Scott playing Patton), "God forgive, me I love it so".

TTFN

Andre

[CNJ831]

Go back 2-3 years on this forum and you will find the same arguments and discussions going on about the hobby's future. That's not changed.

But then if you go online and google "Model trains sales comeback" you get links to news that hobby sales have grown up to 40% in the last two years.

If we're all so smart with our crystal balls, why didn't the posts 3 years ago from the so-called hobby history experts predict this turn of events?

Now how about passing on to posters what the real content of that Reuters article was, Joe?

In fact, it dealt specifically with a comeback for tinplate reported by Lionel, who has had a dismal sales record to the general public in recent years. There is no mention of scale model railroading in the story, nor any claim whatever of any resurgence therein.

Except, of course, for the quote of 'resurgence' by the managing editor of some obscure scale model railroading magazine:

Dick Christianson, managing editor of Model Railroader magazine, said the resurgence in trains would probably start up a whole new, younger generation of model railroaders.
"One day they'll remember they had a train as a kid and say, 'Hey, I wonder if Mom has that in her attic somewhere'," he said.

I don't need any crystal ball to tell that the content of this news release indicates nothing that can be regarded as particularly promising, let alone reflecting some great boom in the hobby's popularity. Quite honestly, I find it unfortunate and disappointing that you would attempt to mislead readers here that somehow it did.

Just in case you missed it:

Dick Christianson, managing editor of Model Railroader magazine, said the resurgence in trains would probably start up a whole new, younger generation of model railroaders.
"One day they'll remember they had a train as a kid and say, 'Hey, I wonder if Mom has that in her attic somewhere'," he said.

HTH.  HAND. 

I'm afraid that is called an opinion regarding a possible future development...not evidence of a current resurgence. 

CNJ831

[CNJ831]

So if I post a data point that doesn't agree with your opinion now I'm being sneaky and underhanded am I?

I seem to recall one somewhat questionable strategy in a debate is when you can't refute some hard data you then revert to personal attacks.

Too bad it's come to this ... you'd think we were talking about politics or religion instead of some hobby pastime.

I'm sorry too, Joe, but you presented your post as fact of a resurgence in our hobby, when in reality the Reuters story clearly pertained to just one tinplate manufacturer and had nothing to do with scale model railroading's situation. You are an accomplished hobbyist and obviously no fool when it comes to assessing the meaning and presentation of things, so totally mistaking the content/meaning of that press release seems a bit hard to accept.

I have never and will never post any information here that I can not back up with some sort of published data. If others would do the same, whatever the subject might be, hobbyists here would not be continuously misinformed and in this instance there would be little question as to the state of the hobby and how it will likely evolve in the future.

CNJ831    

[Midnight Railroader]

Except, of course, for the quote of 'resurgence' by the managing editor of some obscure scale model railroading magazine:

Dick Christianson, managing editor of Model Railroader magazine, said the resurgence in trains would probably start up a whole new, younger generation of model railroaders.
"One day they'll remember they had a train as a kid and say, 'Hey, I wonder if Mom has that in her attic somewhere'," he said.

Okay.

He says he hopes the resurgence in tinplate train sales will have an effect on younger people and whether they get into scale model railroading.

So do I.

 

[Midnight Railroader]

But then if you go online and google "Model trains sales comeback" you get links to news that hobby sales have grown up to 40% in the last two years.

The article that comes up when one does this suggests that Lionel's sale increase means the hobby is "coming back."

"Now, the company [Lionel] is bringing trains back to young people, and sales are up 40 percent in the last two years," the story says.

If we're going to base our judgment of the health of the hobby on the health of one manufacturer, then every time one goes out of business, we're in trouble, right?

I still haven't seen a story that says "hobby sales have grown up to 40% in the last two years," as you suggest.

And if you buy this whole line of reasoning, then weren't all those people who argued "two or three years ago"--as several of you love to point out--that the hobby wasn't in decline wrong about that? After all, something would have to have been in decline to be resurgent, right?

[BRAKIE]

I am glad Lionel sales are up 40% but,how much was that 40% new modelers seeing Lionel sets run from $150.00(The cheapest I saw a starter set)-1200.00?

Naw,saying the hobby is up 40% is using the old slight of hand trick to prove a point when that 40% increase was Lionel sales and not overall hobby sales.

Still we can't overlook the WGH push and the closing of hobby shops for reasons other then retirement or passing of the owners which many overlook in their replies.

It would do well IF MR would present us with facts and figures concerning hobby growth.

 

[Shilshole]

I don't need any crystal ball to tell that the content of this news release indicates nothing that can be regarded as particularly promising, let alone reflecting some great boom in the hobby's popularity. Quite honestly, I find it unfortunate and disappointing that you would attempt to mislead readers here that somehow it did.

Just in case you missed it:

Dick Christianson, managing editor of Model Railroader magazine, said the resurgence in trains would probably start up a whole new, younger generation of model railroaders.
"One day they'll remember they had a train as a kid and say, 'Hey, I wonder if Mom has that in her attic somewhere'," he said.

HTH.  HAND. 

I'm afraid that is called an opinion regarding a possible future development...not evidence of a current resurgence.

 

I'm afraid you are quite wrong.  Mr. Christianson, in his position as managing editor of the leading scale model railroading magazine, acknowledged a resurgence.  His opinion ("would probably start up a whole new, younger generation of model railroaders") regards a possible consequence of the acknowledged resurgence.

Quite honestly, I find it unfortunate and disappointing that you would attempt to mislead readers with respect to what Mr. Christianson, as managing editor of the leading scale model railroading magazine and arguably much more aware of the state of the hobby than you or me, considers to be factual.

 

[Shilshole]

Except, of course, for the quote of 'resurgence' by the managing editor of some obscure scale model railroading magazine:

Dick Christianson, managing editor of Model Railroader magazine, said the resurgence in trains would probably start up a whole new, younger generation of model railroaders.
"One day they'll remember they had a train as a kid and say, 'Hey, I wonder if Mom has that in her attic somewhere'," he said.

He says he hopes the resurgence in tinplate train sales will have an effect on younger people and whether they get into scale model railroading.

 

In the Reuters article, Mr. Christianson didn't mention 'tinplate'.  Nor did he express his hopes.  He offered his professional opinion, as managing editor of Model Railroader, based on the acknowledged 'resurgence in trains' (no modifier) that he has observed.[1]  Although I doubt it's the case, his professional opinion may differ substantially from his hopes and personal opinion. 

[1]I think it's telling that Mr. Christianson's quoted reference was to trains, in general, as opposed to 'toy' trains, 'tinplate' trains, 'scale model' trains, or even 'model railroading'.  My take is that he sees a resurgence in interest in trains among the young, and that the current increased interest will translate into some percentage of the interested becoming future model railroaders, be they the young or their parents -- much like the post-WW2 boom in the hobby.

 

If we're going to base our judgment of the health of the hobby on the health of one manufacturer, then every time one goes out of business, we're in trouble, right?

 

Whatever led to that bit of breathtaking illogic?  Interest, reflected in sales, is indicative of hobby health.  Lionel is a major player.  An increase in sales by Lionel of 40% or whatever shows a substantial increase in interest.  By contrast, there are hundreds of minor manufacturers in the hobby.  Their closure would hardly be noticed, let alone reflect interest in toy trains as a gateway to model railroading or an interest in model railroading in general.

And if you buy this whole line of reasoning, then weren't all those people who argued "two or three years ago"--as several of you love to point out--that the hobby wasn't in decline wrong about that? After all, something would have to have been in decline to be resurgent, right?

Decline and resurgence by which metric?  If in participation, then no one has denied a decline in the number of younger model railroaders in the 80s and 90s, and no one has provided unequivocal data for participation in this decade.  If in the quality and variety of products, then no one (well, except for the pathologically nostalgic) has argued against an increase in both for any period.

A few souls continue to use the reduced number of magazine subscriptions and hobby shops as their metric for evaluating hobby health.  What they continue to ignore is that magazines are but one method of communication, and that other methods, such as e-mail lists, e-forums, personal web pages, and magazine websites, do a better job of communicating to today's modelers.  (By 'better', I mean more immediate, more detailed, more complete, and generally more authoritative.)  What they also continue to ignore is that hobby shops are but one method of retailing, and that other methods, such as on-line shops, do a better job of providing a greater variety of products at lower cost to today's modelers.  

 

[Autobus Prime]

Folks:

I like little trains.

Do you like little trains?

 

[Midnight Railroader]

Mr. Christianson, in his position as managing editor of the leading scale model railroading magazine, acknowledged a resurgence. 

Of course, he also has a vested interest in saying such.

He's about as far as possible from an impartial observer.

My take is that he sees a resurgence in interest in trains among the young, and that the current increased interest will translate into some percentage of the interested becoming future model railroaders, be they the young or their parents -- much like the post-WW2 boom in the hobby.

Your take? Okay, that's your opinion.

And you keep leaving off the modifier "probably" when you talk about his quote, preferring to say things like "the current interest will translate..." which is not what the DC quote says.

[Midnight Railroader]

[

If we're going to base our judgment of the health of the hobby on the health of one manufacturer, then every time one goes out of business, we're in trouble, right?

Whatever led to that bit of breathtaking illogic?  Interest, reflected in sales, is indicative of hobby health.  Lionel is a major player.  An increase in sales by Lionel of 40% or whatever shows a substantial increase in interest.  By contrast, there are hundreds of minor manufacturers in the hobby.  Their closure would hardly be noticed, let alone reflect interest in toy trains as a gateway to model railroading or an interest in model railroading in general.

And if you buy this whole line of reasoning, then weren't all those people who argued "two or three years ago"--as several of you love to point out--that the hobby wasn't in decline wrong about that? After all, something would have to have been in decline to be resurgent, right?

Decline and resurgence by which metric? 

You can't have it both ways. A few years back, Lionel was in the dumper and just about shut down entirely.

Now it is back.

Was the hobby close to "shutting down" also when Lionel was in ill financial health? No?

Then how can you use its return to profitability as a standard to say the hobby is "resurgent"?

like I said, you can't have it both ways. Either:

 (a) Lionel is the gauge by which the health of this hobby is judged (and the hobby nearly died when it did)

OR  (b) Lionel is not that gauge, and you can't use it now to judge that the hobby is doing well.

Pick one.

[Shilshole]

Mr. Christianson, in his position as managing editor of the leading scale model railroading magazine, acknowledged a resurgence. 

Of course, he also has a vested interest in saying such.

He's about as far as possible from an impartial observer.

 

So, you assume that one who is in a position to have abundant knowledge and perception of the hobby's furure is also likely to be deceptive?

 

My take is that he sees a resurgence in interest in trains among the young, and that the current increased interest will translate into some percentage of the interested becoming future model railroaders, be they the young or their parents -- much like the post-WW2 boom in the hobby.

Your take? Okay, that's your opinion.

And you keep leaving off the modifier "probably" when you talk about his quote, preferring to say things like "the current interest will translate..." which is not what the DC quote says.

Of course it's my opinion.  That's what 'My take...' means, which is utterly sufficient to denote its application to all that follows in the sentence.

And if you buy this whole line of reasoning, then weren't all those people who argued "two or three years ago"--as several of you love to point out--that the hobby wasn't in decline wrong about that? After all, something would have to have been in decline to be resurgent, right?

Decline and resurgence by which metric? 

You can't have it both ways. A few years back, Lionel was in the dumper and just about shut down entirely.

Now it is back.

 

Indeed I can have it both ways;  it's precisely why I asked you "which metric?".  Would you care to respond to that?

Notice also how you are conflating 'health of the hobby' during a given period -- say, during Lionel's nadir -- with interest and potential future participation indicated by Lionel's current sales increase, about which Mr. Christianson was speculating.

 

Was the hobby close to "shutting down" also when Lionel was in ill financial health? No?

 

Ah, now you've moved the goalposts to 'shutting down' instead of declining interest and participation.  Obviously, the hobby didn't shut down during Lionel's sales valley;  plenty of manufacturers remained to feed the wants and needs of those already on board, and new manufacturers surfaced to accommodate increased interest in more prototypical models.

By contrast, interest and participation in the hobby did decline, at least in the US, during and after Lionel's troubles.  Their lower sales figures obviously reflected a lack of interest in their product among their targeted consumers, but said nothing about those already involved in the hobby.

Then how can you use its return to profitability as a standard to say the hobby is "resurgent"?

Um, I didn't.  You even quoted what I said, which was "An increase in sales by Lionel of 40% or whatever shows a substantial increase in interest."  See the difference?

My own opinion as a rivet-counting/prototypical practice/craftsmen kit/kit-bashing/scratch-building model railroader is that, by the metric of quality and variety of products, the hobby has been resurgent ever since Gould/Tichy, IMWX/Red Caboose, and Intermountain kits were introduced, Detail Associates and others expanded their product lines, and information on the prototype became more accessible.  I couldn't care less about the future of 'The Hobby' because it won't affect my hobby.

like I said, you can't have it both ways. Either:
 (a) Lionel is the gauge by which the health of this hobby is judged (and the hobby nearly died when it did)
OR  (b) Lionel is not that gauge, and you can't use it now to judge that the hobby is doing well.

Pick one.

Whyever should I choose between end points of a false dichotomy?

[marknewton]

I have never and will never post any information here that I can not back up with some sort of published data.

Good on yer - cite the published data that supports your opinion that Thomas has had no influence on people in the US becoming modellers.

If others would do the same, whatever the subject might be, hobbyists here would not be continuously misinformed and in this instance there would be little question as to the state of the hobby and how it will likely evolve in the future.

Meaning: No-one would dare question your pronouncements.

Fat chance.

One question I have is this. Why are you so determined to be the reigning Prophet of Doom? Why spend so much energy talking the hobby down? What satisfaction do you get from doing that?

[marknewton]

[q

Quite to the contrary, Mark. I'm very much familiar with the Rev. Awdry's Railway series of books and stories. But I'm also well aware, as you apparently are not, that Awdry and Thomas were largely unknown in the United States until the appearance of Shining Time Station on PBS 20 years ago.

That claim has been contradicted by a number of others on this thread, so I'll take it with a grain of salt.

As I've reminded you before, this is 99% an American hobbyists' forum and what goes on, or went on in the hobby, or influences it in foreign lands, is generally not applicable or relevant to the hobby's evolution over here.

Okay, so you reckon US model railroading exists in a vacuum. When the hobby has died there, as you claim it inevitably must, those of us in "foreign lands" will spare a thought for you, in between running trains.

To date, I've seen no one able to provide even the least shred of evidence that Thomas serves as an influence to becoming a model railroader over here. It's always baseless opinion that is put forward.

You, OTOH, have evidence that it doesn't?

Some here have expressed in posts that playing with Lionel as teens often brought with it a certain sigma back in 70's or 80's. I would suggest that Thomas could prove a far worse stigma for younger hobbyists to bear in the future.

What younger hobbyists in the future? There aren't going to be any - the hobby is dying, remember?

[marknewton]

Quite honestly, I find it unfortunate and disappointing that you would attempt to mislead readers with respect to what Mr. Christianson, as managing editor of the leading scale model railroading magazine and arguably much more aware of the state of the hobby than you or me, considers to be factual.

Be fair, Andre - Mr. Christianson is a mere industry professional. He hasn't got the knowledge, credibility or gravitas of our very own Visting Professor of MR History...

Cheers,

Mark.

[BlueHillsCPR]

One question I have is this. Why are you so determined to be the reigning Prophet of Doom? Why spend so much energy talking the hobby down? What satisfaction do you get from doing that?

 

And the next question would be why do so many others enable the doomsday prophets?  Andre says it's cause he is retired and has nothing better to talk about...I wonder if that applies to everybody?  Not that you all aren't entitled to go on endlessly arguing the imminent death of the hobby but since I assume most of you are highly skilled model railroaders, why wouldn't you spend more time posting informative, educational, inspiring threads or contributing to productive discussions in other threads in an attempt to share your wealth of knowledge with the less experienced MRR's who might come here.  It would sure be sad if some kid latched onto this thread and got discouraged because of this sort of thing...that I'm told crops up over and over again about once every month, for some asinine reason.

No doubt this could result in a number of indignant inflammatory posts verging on direct personal attacks, but I put my flame suit on before I came and piddled on your bonfire.  So bring it if you got to.

[marknewton]

And the next question would be why do so many others enable the doomsday prophets? Andre says it's cause he is retired and has nothing better to talk about...I wonder if that applies to everybody?

It'll be a long time before I can retire! I often have a look at the forum during quiet moments at work. I usually can't do any modelling there, but I can keep up to speed on what's happening in the hobby. This is one of the ways I do that.

As for "enabling" doomsayers, I think they're fair game. If blokes want to post pessimistic opinions predicting the death of the hobby, I see no reason not to post contrary optimistic opinions.

Not that you all aren't entitled to go on endlessly arguing the imminent death of the hobby but since I assume most of you are highly skilled model railroaders, why wouldn't you spend more time posting informative, educational, inspiring threads or contributing to productive discussions in other threads in an attempt to share your wealth of knowledge with the less experienced MRR's who might come here.

That assumes that the only legitimate purpose of the forum is the dissemination of knowledge and information to the less experienced. It isn't. It's equally legitimate for experienced modellers to discuss their views of the hobby, and to have differences of opinion.

There are any number of threads that are informative, educational, and inspiring, that contribute to productive discussions that share knowledge, as you put it.

Speaking for myself, I try to do my bit, but in all honesty I wouldn't have the faintest idea what a less experienced modeller needs to know, nor should I be expected to. I didn't take up railway modelling to become a teacher.

It would sure be sad if some kid latched onto this thread and got discouraged because of this sort of thing...

Yeah, sad, but in my opinion highly unlikely.

All the best,

Mark.

[3railguy]

If the model railroading hobby dies, there will be lots of great trains for sale at dirt cheap prices.

[BRAKIE]

Mark,In some ways we are teachers when we help others by answering questions or perhaps discuss short lines,yards etc base on our knowledge and in other ways we are still a student due to the ever changing railroad scene and hobby.

As far as the hobby I heard the preaching of the doom and gloom sayers for the last five decades but,never seen anything like WGH push before or closing of hobby shops for reasons other then retirement of the owners or in some cases the passing of the owner.As far as dying does any hobby really die? I think not.I think they toddle on after all slot car racing is still with us as is fly tying,kite flying, butterfly collecting and other lessor known hobbies..On the other hand I haven't seen kids shot marbles in years nor have I seen that many "sand lot" baseball games.

As far as Thomas,The Hogwarts Express,The Polar Express,Train Sim etc I think they may play a small part in getting kids(and adults) interested in the hobby but,I don't think model railroading will ever be as popular as it once was..

In all honesty I excpect the doom and gloom sayers to preach on in the coming decades.

[SteamFreak]

To throw my own anecdotal and highly subjective observation into this discussion, I was shocked at the turnout for the Greenberg show here in NJ after Thanksgiving. It was packed - I mean sardine can, NYC Subway at rush hour kind of packed - to the point that I wasn't enjoying myself and wanted to get the heck out of there. I noticed a definite up-tic in the attendance last year, but this year was unprecedented. There seemed to be an equal ratio of old-timers to parents with young kids, and there may have been a lot of window shopping going on, but at least people were thinking about it. I don't know if the recent Polar Express film is responsible for the increased interest, but something is happening. I wasn't aware of any greater advertising for the show than usual.

The most heartening sight that day was that of a group of boys probably in the 5-6 year age range laying on the floor in front of the MTH display mesmerized by a T1 and several other locos going in loops. I think a bomb could have dropped without their notice. It sure looked to me like there is another generation to carry the torch.

[eeyore9900]

In all honesty I expect the doom and gloom sayers to preach on in the coming decades.

I agree. I just got back into the hobby about 2 years ago after a hiatus of around 25 years. Back then it seemed to me (my opinion) that model railroading was a dying thing then. As a young pup at the time it seemed I was involving myself in a dying hobby, & once the folks that were a good bit older at that time passed on (the ones that knew what was what, & kept the flame going at the time)  that things would go galley west once they did. But getting back into things at the age of 39, & with the internet being a completely new medium that wasn't thought of then, I was truly amazed at the amount of young folk that have taken up the hobby. A good amount of them that wasn't even born when I was into things, & a few of them know more about model railroading then I ever did.

Things will keep going just as always IMO. As a musicologist (somewhat) specializing in classic country & oldies, I can relate. Bluegrass music is my fave music probably, & recall reading about 20 years ago about bluegrass music in Japan. There are a good amount of folk over there that love & play the music, & at the time, they were worried that once the father of bluegrass music, Bill Monroe, passed on, the music interest, etc, would die with him. (the Japanese consider father figures as sacred from what I understand-& a stabilizing figure if you will.) Bill passed on in 1996, & bluegrass music is as stronger than ever. (Ralph Stanley actually performed on the TONIGHT SHOW a few years ago!) Granted, 90% of the music coming out now is too polished & clean for my tastes, but it's still going strong.

Digressing a bit maybe, but a similar interest in what some consider "old time" but still going stronger than ever-& will continue to do so (IMO) 

[jfugate]

To throw my own anecdotal and highly subjective observation into this discussion, I was shocked at the turnout for the Greenberg show here in NJ after Thanksgiving. It was packed - I mean sardine can, NYC Subway at rush hour kind of packed - to the point that I wasn't enjoying myself and wanted to get the heck out of there.

The most heartening sight that day was that of a group of boys probably in the 5-6 year age range laying on the floor in front of the MTH display mesmerized by a T1 and several other locos going in loops. I think a bomb could have dropped without their notice. It sure looked to me like there is another generation to carry the torch.

That's been my experience too at the WGH shows -- they're packed, with youngsters under 12. My NMRA sources tell me their studies show most people in the hobby today got interested in it from about the ages of 8-12.

Of course our resident all-knowing hobby history expert will tell us that most of these kids won't ever look at another train again, and that this is not evidence of anything. WGH is catering to 45-59 year olds, don't you know? If those of us who have attended these WGH shows would just go look around for the real true hard evidence, we'd find all the 45-59 year olds that the WGH shows are reaching.

[CNJ831]

[q

Quite to the contrary, Mark. I'm very much familiar with the Rev. Awdry's Railway series of books and stories. But I'm also well aware, as you apparently are not, that Awdry and Thomas were largely unknown in the United States until the appearance of Shining Time Station on PBS 20 years ago.

That claim has been contradicted by a number of others on this thread, so I'll take it with a grain of salt.

As I've reminded you before, this is 99% an American hobbyists' forum and what goes on, or went on in the hobby, or influences it in foreign lands, is generally not applicable or relevant to the hobby's evolution over here.

Okay, so you reckon US model railroading exists in a vacuum. When the hobby has died there, as you claim it inevitably must, those of us in "foreign lands" will spare a thought for you, in between running trains.

To date, I've seen no one able to provide even the least shred of evidence that Thomas serves as an influence to becoming a model railroader over here. It's always baseless opinion that is put forward.

You, OTOH, have evidence that it doesn't?

Some here have expressed in posts that playing with Lionel as teens often brought with it a certain sigma back in 70's or 80's. I would suggest that Thomas could prove a far worse stigma for younger hobbyists to bear in the future.

What younger hobbyists in the future? There aren't going to be any - the hobby is dying, remember?

Mark, as I've pointed out to you repeatedly, your location half a world away puts you at a decided disadvantage when it comes to knowing and undertanding how model railroading has evolved in America.

I expect that reading Awbry's Railway series is quite different and perhaps more influential than from the manner in which we see them depicted over here on TV. Thomas in America is a goggly-eyed, totally fantasy character, in the same sense as Jay Jay the Jet Plane, or Wags (the Wiggles' dog, with whom you might be more familiar). Thomas does not reflect either the real world or even real trains, in the minds of its U.S. general audience.

The marketing of Thomas in America is clearly aimed at pre-schoolers, around 99% of Thomas items being targeted at those 5 and under. Thomas train items are mainly wooden push, wind-up, or battery-powered, toys. Thomas electric trains in O and HO amount to only a minute fraction of the Thomas market and rarely part of Thomas products ads from major toy retailers.

On the other hand, American tinplate trains were replicas of real American trains that, in the past, dominated transportation here. Lionel (as well as Flyer, Marx, et al.), J.L.Cowen indicated, was targeted at boys 8-12 and their fathers. Kids of that age have begun dreaming of adulthood and controlling their own lives. Playing with Lionel gave boys control over an imaginary adult world of powerful locomotives and industries. To their fathers was provided an avenue for bonding with his growing child, a link to his own childhood and to become temporarily subservient to the child. Thomas offers none of this and giving a 10-12 year old a Thomas set for Christmas today would more likely embarrass him then send him on the path to becoming a model railroader.

In the news release that Joe F. cited, Lionel was quick to associate its recent growth to the popularity of The Polar Express and the Hogwart's (Harry Potter series) train. Both situations involve real, recognizable, steam trains. Even though Lionel has marketed Thomas sets, please note that no mention is made of them assisting in Lionel's improving sales figures.

Quite some time ago, in a thread similar to this one, the question was posed who among us got their start in the hobby through Thomas? There was but a single positive response. Now this forum claims something like 45,000 members, perhaps about a quarter of all the actual HO hobbyists in America. Even if we consider that no more than 5% ever actually post, a positive response from just one person clearly serves to demonstrate that, after 20 years in the U.S. public's eye, there has been little influence to Thomas in our hobby. I'm afraid that the idea Thomas has become a substantial factor in recruiting HO hobbyists in America is simply because many of today's greener model railroaders, through a very bias view, feel anything that depicts a train in any fashion will somehow result in an individual becoming a model railroader. Sadly, the facts suggest otherwise.

CNJ831    

[BRAKIE]

To throw my own anecdotal and highly subjective observation into this discussion, I was shocked at the turnout for the Greenberg show here in NJ after Thanksgiving. It was packed - I mean sardine can, NYC Subway at rush hour kind of packed - to the point that I wasn't enjoying myself and wanted to get the heck out of there.

The most heartening sight that day was that of a group of boys probably in the 5-6 year age range laying on the floor in front of the MTH display mesmerized by a T1 and several other locos going in loops. I think a bomb could have dropped without their notice. It sure looked to me like there is another generation to carry the torch.

That's been my experience too at the WGH shows -- they're packed, with youngsters under 12. My NMRA sources tell me their studies show most people in the hobby today got interested in it from about the ages of 8-12.

Of course our resident all-knowing hobby history expert will tell us that most of these kids won't ever look at another train again, and that this is not evidence of anything. WGH is catering to 45-59 year olds, don't you know? If those of us who have attended these WGH shows would just go look around for the real true hard evidence, we'd find all the 45-59 year olds that the WGH shows are reaching.

Joe,I have attended many shows as a part time dealer and of late as a attendee and I have seen just the opposite and as anybody can tell you that goes to more then one or two shows a year you will see far more middle age adults then kids.So please refrain from insulting our intelligence..

The cold hard facts remain kids are more interested in rock 'em,sock 'em,shoot 'em up blow 'em up video games than running toy choo-choos in endless loops..And as my youngest grandson once said  "What's so exciting playing with toy trains papaw?"