dstarr wrote: Soo Line fan wrote: Down boys, I am not referring to present day. I came across an interesting interview with Nat Polk. His theory of why trains declined back in the 60s was the following:"The demise of toy trains came when everybody began to chase the $19.95 or $24.95 starter sets of trains from Sears and Montgomery Ward.In other words, the manufacturers all thought that the starter sets had to sell for $19.95 or $24.95, and they couldn't come up with any kind of quality at that price, so things got worse and worse quality wise.People had bad quality experiences with them. Even the small storekeepers had bad experiences with them.You know it all culminated in that Scout set. The Scout set was the final ruination of all the cheap, cheap catalog sets that we all, sadly, had to have." -Nat Polk 1995JimThe December 2007 RMC lists train sets for Christmas. In HO they start at $99.98 (Athearn) and go all the way up to $416 (Trix) . Bit pricey for a child's toy. Looks like the $19.95 price line has failed to hold. One of the Bachmann sets comes with the 2-8-0 Consoidation, which is one hell of a nice locomotive for a trainset.
Soo Line fan wrote: Down boys, I am not referring to present day. I came across an interesting interview with Nat Polk. His theory of why trains declined back in the 60s was the following:"The demise of toy trains came when everybody began to chase the $19.95 or $24.95 starter sets of trains from Sears and Montgomery Ward.In other words, the manufacturers all thought that the starter sets had to sell for $19.95 or $24.95, and they couldn't come up with any kind of quality at that price, so things got worse and worse quality wise.People had bad quality experiences with them. Even the small storekeepers had bad experiences with them.You know it all culminated in that Scout set. The Scout set was the final ruination of all the cheap, cheap catalog sets that we all, sadly, had to have." -Nat Polk 1995Jim
Down boys, I am not referring to present day.
I came across an interesting interview with Nat Polk. His theory of why trains declined back in the 60s was the following:
"The demise of toy trains came when everybody began to chase the $19.95 or $24.95 starter sets of trains from Sears and Montgomery Ward.
In other words, the manufacturers all thought that the starter sets had to sell for $19.95 or $24.95, and they couldn't come up with any kind of quality at that price, so things got worse and worse quality wise.
People had bad quality experiences with them. Even the small storekeepers had bad experiences with them.
You know it all culminated in that Scout set. The Scout set was the final ruination of all the cheap, cheap catalog sets that we all, sadly, had to have." -Nat Polk 1995
Jim
The December 2007 RMC lists train sets for Christmas. In HO they start at $99.98 (Athearn) and go all the way up to $416 (Trix) . Bit pricey for a child's toy. Looks like the $19.95 price line has failed to hold. One of the Bachmann sets comes with the 2-8-0 Consoidation, which is one hell of a nice locomotive for a trainset.
David,The cheapest train set I found was a LL at $59.99..
http://www.walthers.com/exec/productinfo/433-8992
With that said was I to buy one for a kid I would buy a Bachmann Santa Fe Flyer for $83.00 unless the kid showed a genuine interest in the hobby.Then I would buy the kid a Athearn or Atlas set.
Larry
Conductor.
Summerset Ry.
"Stay Alert, Don't get hurt Safety First!"
Autobus Prime wrote: Athearn's Hi-F drive was there, but it's easy to forget that Athearn also had a gear drive at the same time, and at any rate Hi-F drive wasn't typical. .... As for the Hi-F drive, it was controversial even then. Some authors would express doubts in MR, and then somebody would write in claiming that his Hi-F locos were the best he had. They say the units operate very well in multiple-unit lashups. I can't vouch for that.
As for the Hi-F drive, it was controversial even then. Some authors would express doubts in MR, and then somebody would write in claiming that his Hi-F locos were the best he had. They say the units operate very well in multiple-unit lashups. I can't vouch for that.
We look back and laugh at Athearn Hi-F drive today [for those too young to remember, it was the one with rubber bands], but as long you kept a supply of rubber bands on hand** at all times, they worked OK and could pull a resonable-size train. We all owe Irving Athearn a lot for producing those affordable diesels*** --- and by the standards of the time, very nice models! --- in the 50s. BTW, I shouldn't restrict it to the 50s, since I remember Hi-F diesels being around at least till the mid 60s.
_____________________________________
** One slight irritant was that the size of bands used didn't match anything you could get in an office supply store, so you had to buy your bands from Athearn! I guess Irving figured out how to control the supply.
***F-7, GP-9, Hustler, RDC --- Let's see, did I miss any?
Little or nothing of what is said in this post is fact. It's merely an observation from a young, new modeler.
I asked the "heyday" question for this reason. It seems that the reference to how things were better was based on excitement for trains. I'm sure the fifties were really exciting for the hobby. Trains were the "it" toy. Somehow, I don't think the high numbers reported for playing with trains translated into hobbyists. Buying a train for the Christmas tree does not make you a modeler. It makes you a consumer. I believe this difference is what led to the split of toy train collectors and scale modelers. I also think that it's easy to increase numbers ten fold when something is new and exciting. Do I think that the golden era is now, not really. As has been pointed out in numerous threads, not as many kids are into trains as before. I don't really think that means the death of model railroading.
Just for some perspective..
That $25 train set in 1975 would cost $95 now when adjusted for inflation..
I used this inflation calculator: http://www.westegg.com/inflation/
Chris
tomikawaTT wrote: WARNING! This is an opinion which, while based on observation, should not be mistaken for fact!Anyone who thinks that the 1950s were some kind of golden age probably thinks that the 4-4-0 was the ultimate development of the steam locomotive.Yes, there were magnificent models built by master craftsmen, often with only rudimentary tools. Bill Hoffmann's Sacramento Northern and Pacific Electric interurban cars were NOT made with laser-cut parts. Mel Thornburgh used all hand tools - his workshop was a roll-top desk.OTOH, the typical products available to the average hobbyist (including me!) looked like something cut out of odd scraps with stone tools. MR featured a couple of construction series on locomotives with boilers that started life as broom handles. Not until late in the decade did aftermarket detail parts start to approach what we consider 'average' quality.As far as the popularity of model railroading as measured against other hobbies, in my house the only competition is high quality crocheting! (My wife can, and does, make lace.) As far as the demise of the hobby, it will die when I do - but not before.Chuck (modeling Central Japan in September, 1964 - for the forseeable future)
WARNING! This is an opinion which, while based on observation, should not be mistaken for fact!
Anyone who thinks that the 1950s were some kind of golden age probably thinks that the 4-4-0 was the ultimate development of the steam locomotive.
Yes, there were magnificent models built by master craftsmen, often with only rudimentary tools. Bill Hoffmann's Sacramento Northern and Pacific Electric interurban cars were NOT made with laser-cut parts. Mel Thornburgh used all hand tools - his workshop was a roll-top desk.
OTOH, the typical products available to the average hobbyist (including me!) looked like something cut out of odd scraps with stone tools. MR featured a couple of construction series on locomotives with boilers that started life as broom handles. Not until late in the decade did aftermarket detail parts start to approach what we consider 'average' quality.
As far as the popularity of model railroading as measured against other hobbies, in my house the only competition is high quality crocheting! (My wife can, and does, make lace.) As far as the demise of the hobby, it will die when I do - but not before.
Chuck (modeling Central Japan in September, 1964 - for the forseeable future)
Actually the 50s was rather interesting..New brass steam engines came out on a monthly bases as did seveal plastic cars and engines..A lot of layout ideas we embrace today was discuss in the 50s as was operation..
Now let's try taking brass or tin stock along with detail parts from Cal-Scale and turn it into a operating locomotive.My dad could but,I can't.Can you?
The brass steamers had tons of details.
Actually I thought the 60s was better model wise.
And now for a lighter moment...
This hobby will not die until I authorize it to die! You will need to pry my DT400 throttle from my cold, dead hands before this hobby will be allowed to meet its demise!
Ifn' I have to build trains from empty Play Station 3 and XBox360 game cartridge boxes, then that, by gum, is what I'm gonna do!
...and, they'll probably still run better than a Tyco!
And now back to your regularly scheduled "hobby death/cost" debate...!
Modeling the Rio Grande Southern First District circa 1938-1946 in HOn3.
If you look around you, it's hard to argue that RIGHT NOW isn't the Golden Age. Adjusted for inflation, model trains are as affordable as ever, and available in greater variety and quantity than ever before.
There's tons of younger guys involved in the hobby, and tons more guys in their 40's who are coming out of the woodwork all the time now that they have careers in place, the mortgage payment is manageable, and the crumb catchers have grown to actual size. There are certainly more hobby choices these days, but hasn't that always been the case?
Part of the enjoyment of a hobby comes from the development of skills and expansion of knowledge. That's why many of us are getting grey around the temples... We're in the part of our lives where this type of thing is interesting!
As long as guys keep turning 40, there'll be a market for model railroad stuff.
Lee
Route of the Alpha Jets www.wmrywesternlines.net
wm3798 wrote: As long as guys keep turning 40, there'll be a market for model railroad stuff.
I'm not doing the PRR M1 kitbash as an excercise in the lost art of craftsmanship (of course, under close scrutiny, my work isn't all that...look at Max Magliaro if you want N scale steam craftsmanship!). Rather, I'm doing it of necessity, doing what a well-advertised manufacturer failed to do.
You're welcome, Dave, and what you said is precisely the point. It was pretty much the point in the 50's/60's as well. You scratchbuilt/kitbashed something because it just wasn't available, not as an exercise in showing off your skills. Interestingly enough, the word "kitbash" was borrowed from the Brits and was a relatively unknown term here until about the mid-1960's.
I could kid you a bit and suggest that you'd have a lot less work to do in HO scale, since BLI/PCM actually did release an M-1 and one is available in kit form from Bowser, but I don't want to ignite the war of the scales especially since I don't care what scale it's in. Good modeling is good modeling.
Andre
Dave Vollmer wrote: And now for a lighter moment...This hobby will not die until I authorize it to die! You will need to pry my DT400 throttle from my cold, dead hands before this hobby will be allowed to meet its demise!Ifn' I have to build trains from empty Play Station 3 and XBox360 game cartridge boxes, then that, by gum, is what I'm gonna do!...and, they'll probably still run better than a Tyco!And now back to your regularly scheduled "hobby death/cost" debate...!
Now just wait a minute there, Dave. Nobody has the authority to authorize the hobby to die unless I give them that authority and I ain't giving that up until I die.
That's going to be a while because my wife refuses to authorize my death. 'Course, that could change at any time.
If it dies tomorrow, then you and I will be the envy of the neighbors. WE HAVE OURS.
I have enough trains to hold me until my end of days. I'll just spend the rest of my life tinking with the structures and terrain.
Sincerely'
Other Dave
Dave
Lackawanna Route of the Phoebe Snow
on30francisco wrote:For the holidays, the San Francisco Public Library set up a Christmas display of an O gauge Lionel Thomas and regular steam engine pulling lighted passenger cars. The trains and lights in the village can be controlled by the public by pushing various buttons. There is always a standing crowd around it of both kids and adults.
wm3798 wrote: If you look around you, it's hard to argue that RIGHT NOW isn't the Golden Age. Adjusted for inflation, model trains are as affordable as ever, and available in greater variety and quantity than ever before.
No disagreement with those points
wm3798 wrote: There's tons of younger guys involved in the hobby, and tons more guys in their 40's who are coming out of the woodwork all the time now that they have careers in place, the mortgage payment is manageable, and the crumb catchers have grown to actual size. There are certainly more hobby choices these days, but hasn't that always been the case?
You're making that assertion with all the authority in the world. I hope you're right!!
Midnight Railroader wrote: on30francisco wrote:For the holidays, the San Francisco Public Library set up a Christmas display of an O gauge Lionel Thomas and regular steam engine pulling lighted passenger cars. The trains and lights in the village can be controlled by the public by pushing various buttons. There is always a standing crowd around it of both kids and adults.Encouraging, but that really doesn't have any bearing on the number of people involved with scale model railroading as their hobby.
Encouraging, but that really doesn't have any bearing on the number of people involved with scale model railroading as their hobby.
Unfortunately, absolutely nothing whatever. Many these days like to point to Thomas as in some manner the hobby's potential savior and as generating future hobbyists, in the same manner that Lionel and Flyer did for youths of two generations ago. However, there hasn't been even a shred of evidence that their actually exists any such tie-in. Looked at objectively, Thomas appeals largely to pre-schoolers, not particularly to kids in their later pre-teens, where yesteryear's model railroad hobbyists came from. Further, Lionel and Flyer represented real trains in miniature, while Thomas is simply a fantasy character, the same as TV's Jay Jay the Jet Plane.
So far no one has been able to show any fact or figure even suggesting that kids who watched the Thomas series in their earliest years are influenced toward becoming model railroaders. The Thomas series began in the United States nearly 20 years ago (1989), making its earliest viewers perhaps 20-25 today. So where is the influx of new blood as a result? A posted question here from a while back asked who among forum members had been influenced by Thomas to later take up model railroading. Only a single individual came forward to indicate he had. On a forum of supposedly 40,000+ members, that is hardly an influential or encouaging figure!
My advice is to forget Thomas as being in any manner influential in helping generate future hobbyist..it just isn't a realistic idea.
CNJ831
"while Thomas is simply a fantasy character, the same as TV's Jay Jay the Jet Plane. "
Try telling that to my granddaughters. They have ridden Thomas. The rest of the tour of the Transportation museum where it took place has generated a tremendous fascination with trains.
The eldest now reads my Model Railroader magazine, and begs to go to a crossing to watch freight trains go by, and is in heaven ever time she gets to ride our local light rail.
I really need to take her somewhere on Amtrak.
CNJ831 wrote: The Thomas series began in the United States nearly 20 years ago (1989), making its earliest viewers perhaps 20-25 today. So where is the influx of new blood as a result?
The Thomas series began in the United States nearly 20 years ago (1989), making its earliest viewers perhaps 20-25 today. So where is the influx of new blood as a result?
C:
Dating. They'll be back around age 35, after being married a few years.
It will be interesting to see what influence (if any) Thomas has on model railroaders in future years. It may still be a little early to tell, since the Thomas "boom" really only goes back to the nineties. I know in my generation (49 now) and older there was often a pattern - O27 or S train set as as kid, sometimes continuing in tinplate into the teen years or switching to scale trains along the way, then a hiatus during college / military service / girls / starting a career and family, then returning to the hobby in their 30's or 40's.
I know my alma mater has a model railroad club now (I'm an alumni member) and is building a substantial layout on campus. We didn't have any such club c.1980 when I was there, so it does appear there is perhaps a growing interest in model railroading among the younger folks...or maybe they're just better organized than we were at that age?!
On an inflation adjusted basis, a train set going for $24.95 in 1960 would sell for $176.11 today and a $19.95 set went for today's equivalent of around $141. Both Walthers and Athearn have sets for less and the 6 car Athearn passenger set sells for roughly the inflation adjusted price of the $24.95 set in 1960.
Incidentally, most HO sets back then didn't include a power pack.
I wish this hobby would hurry up and die so I can get some real bargains on eBay. Imagine a box full of brass locomotives for $10. I can't wait.
Enjoy
Paul
Autobus Prime wrote: CNJ831 wrote: The Thomas series began in the United States nearly 20 years ago (1989), making its earliest viewers perhaps 20-25 today. So where is the influx of new blood as a result? C:Dating. They'll be back around age 35, after being married a few years.
And upon what bit of insight re Thomas' influence on the hobby do you base that? As always, I am afraid when it comes to Thomas such linkage is only the wishful thinking of the hobbyist, not based on any actual evidence or even a rational evaluation of the situation.
If I am incorrect about Thomas having no influence whatever on creating future hobbyists, please do point out what varifiable evidence indicates otherwise. Some posters claim, "My kids love Thomas and my layout", or something similar. What does that indicate? Odds are it's only true for them simply because they are modelers already.
In reality, if there is no indication of new hobbyists coming from the ranks of Thomas lovers after 20 years of the show being on TV, you can pretty much write off the idea of it having any hobby influence. By comparison, in the days of tinplate the evidence of that influence in creating new scale hobbyist, from pre-teens on up in age, was overwhelming...and most didn't wait until 35+ to exhibit it, according to MR, 1 hobbyist in 5 was a teen in 1956!
CNJ831 wrote: Autobus Prime wrote: CNJ831 wrote: The Thomas series began in the United States nearly 20 years ago (1989), making its earliest viewers perhaps 20-25 today. So where is the influx of new blood as a result? C:Dating. They'll be back around age 35, after being married a few years.And upon what bit of insight re Thomas' influence on the hobby do you base that? As always, I am afraid when it comes to Thomas such linkage is only the wishful thinking of the hobbyist, not based on any actual evidence or even a rational evaluation of the situation.If I am incorrect about Thomas having no influence whatever on creating future hobbyists, please do point out what varifiable evidence indicates otherwise. Some posters claim, "My kids love Thomas and my layout", or something similar. What does that indicate? Odds are it's only true for them simply because they are modelers already. In reality, if there is no indication of new hobbyists coming from the ranks of Thomas lovers after 20 years of the show being on TV, you can pretty much write off the idea of it having any hobby influence. By comparison, in the days of tinplate the evidence of that influence in creating new scale hobbyist, from pre-teens on up in age, was overwhelming...and most didn't wait until 35+ to exhibit it, according to MR, 1 hobbyist in 5 was a teen in 1956!CNJ831
Some people think the cup is half full. Others think it is half empty. Then there are the few who think that the cup is a mythical beast and arguing about its contents is an exercise in futility.
Have fun with your trains
I too tire of all the chest beating going on about who has the best knowledge of the future of the hobby.
The truth is none of us knows exactly what the future holds -- but I can guarantee you this -- it will be different than it is today. As long as there's an internet and at least two people in the hobby, they can share ideas instantly and keep in contact to send each other parts, etc. This is way better than the fix we'd be in if the hobby died after the 1960s as was predicted back then.
Thanks to the internet, the hobby will continue to survive well into the future, which works for me.
Joe Fugate Modeling the 1980s SP Siskiyou Line in southern Oregon
Since none of those teenagers/young adults who are or aren't present/potential model railroaders live under my personal roof, I'm not going to worry about them - or their potential influence on this hobby.
As for the bucket of brass for $10.00, wait for my estate sale. Of course, the brass will be 1:80 scale Japanese prototype. (Don't hold your breath waiting. My father died in his 90s, and I'm WAY healthier than he was at my age.)
The ones who should be concerned about a possible decline are all you DCC hounds. Anyone who knows the difference between an electron and a proton can build an analog DC power pack from electronic parts house components. DCC items usually require an electrical engineer with a minor in data processing (and a skilled hand with a pencil iron!)
Chuck (modeling Central Japan in September, 1964)
vsmith wrote:Thomas is bigger today than ever, and those kids have parents that are buying an awful lot of Thomas stuff today. So the New Blood is disguised as such, the income is coming into those making the Thomas stuff but there's a negligable overflow into true scale modeling, so we get stealth hobbiests who dont even realize they are part of the hobby with all that Thomas purchases.
Look, I love this hobby.
But it does no good for people to say things like they see lots of people looking at holiday train displays or that their kids like Thomas or that the hobby shop looks busy or that a manufacturer just came out with the model they need.
That's called anecdotal evidence. If I go in to Caboose Hobbies on Monday at 2pm and there's no one there, it wouldn't be right for me to claim the hobby is dead because of that. If a hobby shop closes down, that MIGHT be evidence that the hobby's in decline--or it could mean the owner mismanaged the place and went bankrupt.
The hard evidence--number of people involved in the hobby, i.e., building scale models, layouts, operating, etc., is not at a record high. It is dropping.
To quote the Vulcan Ambasador, Sarek:
"Telarites do not debate, they just argue"
Okay, I have to ask...
If you knew for sure, with irrefutable evidence, that the hobby was in fact going to die in 20 years, what would you do differently?
If the answer is "nothing," then the argument is eventually futile.
If the answer is to hoard up as many model trains as possible, get spendin'!
If the answer is to quit the hobby, then have fun in whatever else you choose to do.
For me, I'd do nothing different.
We need hard numbers. I suggest the federal government to a trace on all purchases of model train-related products and track that number monthly. More importantly, they need to identify the number of people making purchases rather than simply the number of purchases.
Sound silly? Well, I can't think of a more irrefutable way to get hard evidence. All this "I know a guy on the inside" is no more concrete than "my kids love Thomas" or "my LHS closed" or "that WGH show was packed."
So, in all seriousness, it's agonizingly clear that some people have rose-colored glasses, others have very dark-colored glasses, and the rest have fogged-up glasses (like me). No one has changed anyone's mind in the dozens of threads on this topic. We all claim our own anticdotal or incomplete data are all the evidence we need to prove our point, but in the end we can't predict how much the hobby has declined, will decline, or when and if it will plateau, or if it will, in fact, die completely.
Just don't tell the manufacturers the death throes have begun, because some of them seem to think there's still money to be made in the hobby!
I have a great respect for some of the long-time hobbyists who can vouch for their personal observations of the hobby of the past 50 years. But in science, we have a thing we call "the dangers of extrapolation." That is, trends that are not linear cannot be extrapolated into the future with 100% certainty.
Case in point: the housing market. Just a few years ago, if you'd extrapolated the then-current trend, the average US home would be going for close to a half mil. The "trend" didn't foresee the market collapse. The same is true here.
Will the hobby continue to decline to zero? I doubt it, but I don't know. Will it get smaller but more focused? That's my personal bet, but I don't know. All I know is that it will be different. Model railroading is a nonlinear system; there are natural unpredictabilities that are profound enough to render this whole debate irrelevant IMHO.
Whew!