Wow. No I can't say that I agree with that. My experiences were not the same. I received a Tyco starter set around 1973 when I was about ten. For me that Tyco set started what has become a lifelong fascination with Model Railroading. I had hours of fun with that first set and a 4X8 sheet of plywood...later a cousin gave me an identical set and then I had two! I still have some of those old sets around here. Nothing but good memories attached to the old Tyco stuff in my basement.
The sets today may be a fine example of what you are suggesting but I sure liked my old Tyco!
In the early to mid 60's, there were two major issues with model train sales(both scale and tinplate):
Right now we are seeing electronic games/computers taking market share away from model trains - Nothing new here. There will always be cheap train sets(as long as 'big box' stores set a 'price point'). Model train have been in a slide, but DCC has drawn younger folks to the hobby. This same 'electronic' draw started earlier with RC airplanes/cars, and look how they have grown. Those teens and 20 year olds will drift away from the hobby(we all seem to fall in love and have 'family' obligations). And by the time we are 40, we are pulling that stuff out and 'playing' again....
Jim
Modeling BNSF and Milwaukee Road in SW Wisconsin
Dr. Frankendiesel aka Scott Running BearSpace Mouse for president!15 year veteran fire fighterCollector of Apple //e'sRunning Bear EnterprisesHistory Channel Club life member.beatus homo qui invenit sapientiam
There may be some truth is what Nat Polk said. But sales dropped off because people bought trains at Sear and Montgomery Wards instead of Nat Polk's hobby shop (either in person or mail order).
There was a lot of really bad cheap stuff comng out in the discount stores back in the late 50's and early 60's. A lot of people got burned by buying from the discount stores. The discount stores did not do repair work. The local hobby shop didn't want to repair stuff he did not sell.
I believe the biggest hit for model trains then was the "Model Motoring" concept that came out by Aurora. You could have moving electric cars running with your trains. The cars had their own roads (with slots to control them) and were to scale.
Kids like to run trains fast. Fast running trains do not stay on the track on curves. Take the Model Motoring cars and run them as race cars. Racing cars around the track was a lot more enjoyable/exciting to young kids than watching a slow moving train.
While I definitely acknowledge Nat's being a hobby authority from his involvement at the retail level, I would look to a number of other factors that most definitely influenced the decline of model/toy trains during the period in question.
First off, Americans were coming out of a deep, late 50's, recession. The cheap trains Nat mentions could have been largely in response to that, as folks were being much more careful with their money. In the post-war euphoria of the early to mid 50's, Lionel, et al, had no problem selling $50-$75 sets in great quantities. By 1959-60, that situation had totally evaporated and Lionel was loosing huge money annually (after seeing record profits less than half a dozen years earlier!).
Likewise, Lionel (for one) had gone from offering largely prototypical, unoffensive, freight cars and locomotives, to issuing increasingly disturbing, gimmicky items, or sets with a downright "dark" implication: nuclear waste, attack missles, exploding rolling stock, etc. These were not well received by a public that recalled the horrors of the recent Second World War and the perceived threats of the new Atomic Age.
Even more damaging was the advent of the Space Age. Kid's heros weren't locomotive engineers any more, nor were their dreams about operating the real thing (steam was dead anyway). Their heroes were astronauts and commercial airline pilots...a far, far cry from those at the controls of lumbering, smoke-belching, locomotives. Trains were looked upon as backward, dirty and an inconvenient method of transportation. Toy trains were largely considered a dinosaur by the public.
The final contributing factor, whose influence still reverberates in the hobby today, was the introduction of slot cars. Like it or not, their appearance on the scene replaced tin-plate trains for perhaps an entire generation of kids and were directly responsible for the hobby's "greying" we've seen over the past 20-30 years. The simple fact is that the fraction of teenage participants in the hobby dropped from 20% to just a few percent between 1956 and 1976.
All these factors contributed to the decline of toy trains and by association, our adult hobby.
CNJ831
I don't think the cheapie sets were responsible for the decline in sales.
They were bought mostly for kids, most of whom didn't know any better. Some grew up and kept with the hobby, learning about better products as they went along.
But the kids who grew apart from the "toys"--yet came back later--didn't go buy Tyco sets from Sears when they became "serious' about the hobby.
There have been a lot of societal factors that have drawn kids' attention from trains, not the least of which is the fact that, nowadays, the only impact railroads have on their lives, if any, is to hold them up at a grade crossing. Blaming department stores is to ignore reality.
It seems to me every decade the pall bearers for model railroading was nearing the gates and the buzzards was begining to circle over the dying but,once proud hobby.
Any time I read a death song from a well known hobby shop owner I take it with a table spoon of salt after all the magic statement was ""The demise of toy trains came when everybody began to chase the $19.95 or $24.95 starter sets of trains from Sears and Montgomery Ward." That should warn the gentle reader that there is personal interest involved.
If memory serves Polk specialized in Lionel.
Also the 60 era saw Brass locomotives from $24.99-89.99..Saw several improvements to include things like the RP25 wheel,KD couplers begining to become the "defacto standard".
To my mind the 60 era was the first "boom" era of model railroading and the dawning of the hobby we have today.
Larry
Conductor.
Summerset Ry.
"Stay Alert, Don't get hurt Safety First!"
I have fond memories of Tyco. In the early 70's my wife bought me a set for Christmas with the ten wheeler locomotive. It started me on the hobby. I added the prairie shortly thereafter. I had a lot of fun with those running on my Atlas snap track on my first 4x8 layout.
The Lionel set I bought in the late 70's for my son was a disaster - it never worked right. It was junk. The locomotive drivers were plastic, the trucks on the freight cars had only one plastic axle/wheels at each end - the other axle position was dummy. The accessories didn't go together and work. It became the first and only train I threw away.
Enjoy
Paul
I think the main reason peple are not into model trains is because they don't like them as a hooby. They prefer to do something else. Like any real hooby, trains take a huge amunt of time. People like to look at my layout once, but that does not mean they will want to drop all their other time consuming hobbies and spend all that time in the train room.
I am willing to accept the fact that people avoid trains for the same reason they avoid golf or counted cross stitch, that is not what they like to do.
I agree with the cheap theory, that's why I'm not in N scale. In 1973 I purchased a Bachmann Postage Stamp train set. I could barely get it to run and returned it. Had that first experience been positive, or at least better, I would be modeling N scale today.
Tilden
Tilden wrote: I agree with the cheap theory, that's why I'm not in N scale. In 1973 I purchased a Bachmann Postage Stamp train set. I could barely get it to run and returned it. Had that first experience been positive, or at least better, I would be modeling N scale today.Tilden
Beat ya! My first N Scale train set was from Atlas..Mind you in the mid 60s "serious" modelers thought N Scale was a passing fad and not to be taken seriously.
I ran mine on the kitchen table and ran that little train loop after loop after loop.
Folks:
Model railroading seems to be a rather active corpse. People like trains. What can I say? I can't explain it, either. Look at Thomas, look at Geotrax, look at Harry Potter. The kids are running more steamers than the PRR had.
Honestly, the modern basic sets aren't all that bad. Even the cheapie Life-Like sidewinders do pretty much what they are supposed to. The kids want to see it go, and it goes. I have found that even the sidewinders, though nothing special, are much more durable and better-looking than the PT Tycos. Even at that, though, I had a lot of fun with my PT Tycos as a kid, and the unit went back together after a tumble down some stairs. What eventually killed it was probably an attempt to "fix it". As a youngster, disassembly was my strong point...let's leave it at that.
The plastic-roadbed track systems have solved one problem by allowing track to be solidly and easily connected on the floor. The major problem with kids' HO are when daddy's fingers are too big to get the thing on the tracks, and he ends up making up new words. The skill comes with time. Another problem is that most people don't know how to clean track and wheels, so the train only lasts one season.
Trains don't need to be perfect, from our viewpoint, for kids to like them. They do have to be fun. I think a line of reliable operating accessories and cars, included Tyco-style in train sets, would do a lot to make HO sets even more fun.
I had better stop before people start throwing Tyco GG1s...
Here is the link to the Nat Polk interview:
http://www.aristocraft.com/articles/nat/natpolk.html
He has some other interesting comments worth reading.
I think that whether a particular individual has a positive or negative experience with his first toy train set depends largely on what he does when he begins to experience troubles with it.
My grandfather had a 4 x 6 HO layout with mostly TYCO equipment that ran fairly well. Because I liked his trains, I went out and bought my own train set (an AHM set with their Plymouth switcher, two cars, a caboose and a loop of track). Then, when I started having problems with the couplers on the locomotive I asked my grandfather for advice. Naturally, he directed me to the two LHS' in town, where I got some real help from both proprietors and picked up my first copy of MR. So, when the time came for me to upgrade my locomotive, I already knew where to go. Once I got that first, nearly indestructable, Athearn geep, there was no turning back for me.
However, if there had been no LHS, I might have given up. I have heard LHS owners complain about train sets sold at discount stores - both because of their own lost revenue, and because of the number of dads and kids that come in a month after Christmas with a broken engine who then leave in disgust when they learn it can't be fixed (cheaply). However, there will always be one or two of these kids that decide to stick around and see what they could get instead, and I believe that is where the future of the hobby lies.
If we had the statistics available, we could calculate a ratio of kids that stick with the hobby vs. total kids that get a train set for Christmas. But, with the declining number of brick-and-mortar shops, where a kid with a broken train can turn for help, advice, and better equipment, that ratio may well be trending down. Another potential factor, if that ratio is truly dropping, may be the fewer numbers of "Blue Box" locomotives and freight car kits that are available these days. When the least expensive of the medium quality locomotives is twice the price of the original train set, it can be a tough sell.
I know the topic of dwindling numbers of LHS' (and the trend away from blue box) comes up on this forum constantly, so I don't want to belabor those points. But, when the day comes that MRRing becomes an internet/mail order hobby only, and there is no opportunity for a budding MRR to get the help he needs now and a friendly demonstration of why that $100 engine is worth the price, that's when the hobby may be in trouble.
Just my 2 cents.
Tom
Chip
Building the Rock Ridge Railroad with the slowest construction crew west of the Pecos.
The cheap train sets didn't help the hobby, but another thing that I think is a great contributing factor as to why so many get out of the hobby is their own patience (or lack of.)
I look back at my own experiences and at one point was about to give up on the hobby myself. Nothing came out right. My track soldering was horrible, my scenery looked like something out of Land of the Giants and those old Monty Python cartoon clips, and in general, I didn't know what i was doing at the time nor how to get to the point of quality modeling.
One thing I did have was patience and perseverance. (If at first you don't succeed, try, try, again.) After my first two layout disasters, I started to read a lot about the hobby, listened to some of the old guys, and eventually learned the techniques to do it. A lot of people are too easily frustrated when things don't go right on the first try and soon after, lose all interest, weither it was a cheap tyco or quality equipment. I think that people fall away from the hobby because of their own demeaner. Either a person is willing to have the patience it takes to model or they don't....chuck
Hehe.... Our weekly "hobby death" thread...
Fortunately, there are some decent starter sets out there these days. Now, my father still has an original Athearn train set from the early 60s that was probably top-of-the-line trainset material then. Not much change from the current day Blue Box items.
Varney, Athearn, MDC, and Mantua seem to have been the products of choice for my Dad in the late 50s into the 60s. Tyco was certainly a step down in quality. But it was a step up in affordability.
A friend of mine had a Tyco trainset that he and his dad built a layout around. It was good kiddie fodder, but he didn't stick with the hobby. Although I had a few Tyco items, my dad ensured I had better stuff on my layout, and I stuck with the hobby.
Tyco bad? No, not at all. Depends on what you're looking for. Tyco good for the hobby? Hard to say. I don't know how many Tyco-ites stuck with the hobby, or how many left in frustration. Tyco responsible for the decline of the hobby? Ha! That's a good one.
I always come back to this; I believe that those with a deep passion for trains and modeling them in miniature will stay with the hobby no matter what the challenge. Those that are just looking for a hobby ("Hey,maybe I'll try model trains!") are less likely to stick with it. Many will, no doubt, but I feel it's a deep-seated love of railroading prior to the first train set purchase that makes the model railroader that will rise up beyond the challenges of bad equipment or budget constraints.
Modeling the Rio Grande Southern First District circa 1938-1946 in HOn3.
Autobus Prime wrote:The kids are running more steamers than the PRR had.
The kids are running more steamers than the PRR had.
Can you blame them (us)? Steam is definately better than diesel! Especially to a kid -- from a kid's PoV, Diesel = big boring box on wheels; whereas steam locos have all those moving bits that you don't exactly know what they do, but they're really (and I mean REALLY) cool to watch.
I envy those of you lucky enough to have seen a big, breathing, living steam loco going about it's daily work. The best I can accomplish is old 50's and 60's era video (either put out by the RR's themselves, or shot by railfans) and the amusement park or museum RR's that use steam locos.
-Dan
Builder of Bowser steam! Railimages Site
I think that the rise of the video game in the 80s marked the real end to train sets as a popular toy as well as a slew of other toys that took a lot more effort to play with. Yeah.. I used the "T" word.. but for purposes of this discussion it fits. I look back and my last Model Railroader as a teen arrived in 1983, the same year I got my own computer (TRS-80 model 1!). My issues start again in 2000.. a 17 year lapse of interest.
I think that the rise of cheap HO train sets didnt help.. they were quite aggravating if you wanted to set up with them on the floor to play with. Lionel and American Flyer had been much better suited to the rug empire. Its too bad the kind of plastic roadbed track we have now was not available then. I know in the 70s I enjoyed my Dad's American Flyer more when visiting my grandparents then I did my own HO set at home. Eventually I got into model trains more seriously but thats due to my grandfather's layout more then the train set..
I think that to interest kids in model trains now you have to lead by example.. they are going to want to participate with a parent (or whatever) in building a model railroad as opposed to playing themselves with a train set. I am sure there are exceptions, but with my son (all of 8 weeks!) I am hoping tio quietly get him interested by just being interested in it myself rather then by trying to flood him with toy train stuff. At least, not so much flooding of stuff!
Chris
NeO6874 wrote: Autobus Prime wrote: The kids are running more steamers than the PRR had.Can you blame them (us)? Steam is definately better than diesel! Especially to a kid -- from a kid's PoV, Diesel = big boring box on wheels; whereas steam locos have all those moving bits that you don't exactly know what they do, but they're really (and I mean REALLY) cool to watch. I envy those of you lucky enough to have seen a big, breathing, living steam loco going about it's daily work. The best I can accomplish is old 50's and 60's era video (either put out by the RR's themselves, or shot by railfans) and the amusement park or museum RR's that use steam locos.
Autobus Prime wrote: The kids are running more steamers than the PRR had.
NeO:
You won't get any argument from me on that. I've only seen 3 real live steam engines in action, all in foamer service, and that's enough. The combination of coal smoke and steam oil is powerfully addictive, as is the aura of lost legend.
Diesels are all right, and I like watching them, too, but steam is king.
I have no doubt that cheap train sets did their share of harm, but the hobby obviously survived.
I think the greatest current hindrance (not demise) is cost. Limited runs and advancements in technologies/detail continue to run up the prices. It leaves me wondering just how close the market is to bearing it all - particularly in the current state (downward trending) of the economy.
secondhandmodeler wrote:When was this 'hay-day' of model railroading everyone refers to? As far as I can tell, people have been saying it's declining since it started.
I think you've pretty well hit the nail on the head. Everything was always better during some golden age (always undefined as to actual time frame) in the past.
But then, I'm a contrarian. I personally believe that the golden age is right now. OTOH, you gotta take what I say with a grain of salt. I invested in Apple Computer when everyone else was at the point of writing it off.
Andre
andrechapelon wrote:I invested in Apple Computer when everyone else was at the point of writing it off. Andre
Isn't that still where we are with Apple today!
Seems like that is where we are with the hobby too...every other day there is a new thread...the dimise...the cost...the quality...it's a wonder anybody just runs trains anymore.
Bachmann did not market Postage Stamp Trains. Aurora did. They were made by Minitrix and they were definitely not junk. My F9 loco that I got in 1970 still runs.
David
Choose a decade..You will find a "hay day".Every decade had at least one.
No,I never heard of such till Linn Westcott mention it during the height of the slot car craze of the 60s.
"Rumors of my demise have been greatly exaggerated!"
From the far, far reaches of the wild, wild west I am: rtpoteet
andrechapelon wrote: secondhandmodeler wrote:When was this 'hay-day' of model railroading everyone refers to? As far as I can tell, people have been saying it's declining since it started.I think you've pretty well hit the nail on the head. Everything was always better during some golden age (always undefined as to actual time frame) in the past.But then, I'm a contrarian. I personally believe that the golden age is right now. OTOH, you gotta take what I say with a grain of salt. I invested in Apple Computer when everyone else was at the point of writing it off.
No...there most certainly was a golden age in model railroading and it surely isn't now. In the mid 1950's model trains was ranked as the second most popular and practiced hobby in America, only edged out by philately! Is there anyone here so naive as to think our hobby even ranks in the top 100 today?
Between 1948 and 1955, toy train sales reached mindboggling heights, with major commercial Lionel and Flyer outlets selling out their stock completely often weeks prior to Christmas. America was obsessed with trains, large and small, and Christmas just wasn't Christmas unless you had toy trains under the tree back then. That all ended by the 60's.
Likewise, from the mid 1940's through the 1950's, during which we saw the introduction of good looking shake-the-box plastic rolling stock and diecast RTR locomotives that sold for less than half of what loco kits were going for before the war, the HO hobby grew in size by nearly ten-fold. Since most scale hobbyists were craftsmen back then, at least to some degree, one saw the magazines continuously presenting inexpensive projects applicable to most every layout. Back then the hobby was also about the enjoyment of really building things, things that developed your modeling talents...not about buying and collecting, often to no point, as has become so much a part of the hobby today.
The biggest failing in the threads one sees here concerning the hobby's history is that so very few have any real idea of what actually went on in the hobby more than a few years ago. As a result, I'm afraid one usually sees simply a series of baseless speculations and opinions unrelated to the actual facts.
secondhandmodeler wrote:Were the fifties the best time for modeling, or buying toy trains?
Both.
For me Tyco was a lesson. The difference between cheap and quality.
I recall a commercial for thier Chattanooga Choo Choo. All black background with just the engine racing down the track. Boy all the kids just had to have one.
The actual product. Well... it was a incredible example of marketing for it's own sake; a means to feed a company with cash until they can crank out a different box-o-crap.
I dont have anything left bad to say about it except that money was wasted on this cheap trainset that could have gone into a nice Athearn Bluebox that had two flywheels, can motor of sorts and all wheel pickup.
They say the hobby has been dying for a long long time. I dont see it. I see it pink, full of life and infused with vigor and flood of wonderful new widgets every month. Indeed I think we are in the best of times right now. Open a catalog and type a few numbers into a internet keyboard and have it shipped to you with a very good price.
In the old days we had to take a bus to the store door, slog through a warehouse to dig up a box of trains, fight crowds, walk up hill both ways in a howling storm and learn quickly new ways of fixing things that dont work out of the box with these cheap toys.
ESPECIALLY cheap trainsets deliberately designed around a short lifespan.
Nowadays I walk past nicer trainsets. But feel a cold wind and pull my jacket closer.
Now Ive seen or is seeing demise of companies that are ahem.. struggling to get products delivered. Ive seen the courts groan with burden of lawsuits that seemed to threaten the hobby with a crushing death blow. Ive seen once great products get reissued cheaply without the necessary electronics generating pain, pleas and supplications for help.
But a dead hobby? Nah! It's only dead when you cart the whole mess to a roll off/on dumpster and have it shipped to the landfill and take up another hobby.
That's a fact. In addition to my "real" trains, my 2 car garage size layout also has Thomas the Tank Engine and Hogwart's Express sitting in the yard. After all, the grandchildren like the trains, too.
Dave
Lackawanna Route of the Phoebe Snow
Tilden wrote:I agree with the cheap theory, that's why I'm not in N scale. In 1973 I purchased a Bachmann Postage Stamp train set. I could barely get it to run and returned it. Had that first experience been positive, or at least better, I would be modeling N scale today.Tilden
Have you tried N scale lately? I agree that much of what was available back in the dark ages was worse than the worst. However, N scale now offers a wide variety of very reliable and smooth running engines, exquisitely detailed rolling stock, and a plethora of support supplies. The bulk of it is competitively priced compared to HO.
In this case, the sins of the old stuff shouldn't be visited on the new.
Lee
Route of the Alpha Jets www.wmrywesternlines.net
NeO6874 wrote: Autobus Prime wrote:The kids are running more steamers than the PRR had.Can you blame them (us)? Steam is definately better than diesel! Especially to a kid -- from a kid's PoV, Diesel = big boring box on wheels; whereas steam locos have all those moving bits that you don't exactly know what they do, but they're really (and I mean REALLY) cool to watch. I envy those of you lucky enough to have seen a big, breathing, living steam loco going about it's daily work. The best I can accomplish is old 50's and 60's era video (either put out by the RR's themselves, or shot by railfans) and the amusement park or museum RR's that use steam locos.
I second that! I've always liked steam even though I've never seen a steamer in revenue service. To me, diesels are boring big boxes on wheels, although the prototypes in service are more efficient.
Alright so I've got to admit, I have a guilty secret in the hobby: I like the cruddy toy-trains.
Yes, on my layout I've got my Katos and Atlas that run like swiss watches, but I'll still pick up an old Tyco or AHM at yard sales. Usually I play around with them for a while, then use them for paint testing or parts, but there are some that I like enough to keep on the shelves in my office, just because I can.
It's kind of the so-ugly-it's-cute thing in my mind. I'm keeping an eye out for the Tyco Alco Super 630, the Sharknose and other odd ones. My first train set was a Tyco with an absolutely horrific Alco Century 430 in Santa Fe. Thankfully my grandfather bought me an Athearn F7A as soon as he found out what I was running. Amazingly, the old Tyco power pack still works and I use it on my circle around the Christmas tree every year.
Personally I think the worst thing about the cheap train sets is the fact that they are marketed as though they are realistic and true model railroads. Corporations that sell both cheap products and higher-end models should illustrate the difference.
Cheers!
~METRO
CNJ831 wrote:No...there most certainly was a golden age in model railroading and it surely isn't now. In the mid 1950's model trains was ranked as the second most popular and practiced hobby in America, only edged out by philately! Is there anyone here so naive as to think our hobby even ranks in the top 100 today?
Likewise, from the mid 1940's through the 1950's, during which we saw the introduction of good looking shake-the-box plastic rolling stock and diecast RTR locomotives that sold for less than half of what loco kits were going for before the war, the HO hobby grew in size by nearly ten-fold.
Since most scale hobbyists were craftsmen back then, at least to some degree, one saw the magazines continuously presenting inexpensive projects applicable to most every layout.
Back then the hobby was also about the enjoyment of really building things, things that developed your modeling talents...not about buying and collecting, often to no point, as has become so much a part of the hobby today.
In 1972-73 I worked at a discount store in Anderson, In. We sold Tyco train sets by the ton, especially that C-mas. About a month after C-mas, a friend of mine who also worked there made a deal with the toy dept supervisor and we bought - and I mean this literally- 32 (IIRC) Tyco train and slot car sets that had been returned!
We re-wired the engines, soldered the track, in general made them usable, and proceeded to slam them around his basement for about 2 years before they were all sent to the big trainyard in the sky. We ambushed them with BB guns, packed them with firecrackers, and generally just had a great time with them.
That was about the only fun I ever had with Tyco stuff. I was quite pleased when they left the hobby business.
BRAKIE wrote:Actually RTR isn't new to the hobby..We had RTR in the 50/60s..
marknewton wrote: CNJ831 wrote: No...there most certainly was a golden age in model railroading and it surely isn't now. In the mid 1950's model trains was ranked as the second most popular and practiced hobby in America, only edged out by philately! Is there anyone here so naive as to think our hobby even ranks in the top 100 today?Who cares how it ranks with other hobbies? I'm not a railway modeller because I want to compete with other people with other hobbies over which is most "popular". Using that as a measure of the hobby's health is meaningless. I'm led to believe philately is not as popular as it once was either, but no-one's predicting the death of stamps.Your insistence that the 50s was a golden age is laughable from my perspective. In the 50s none of the things that enrich my hobby experience were available. Likewise, from the mid 1940's through the 1950's, during which we saw the introduction of good looking shake-the-box plastic rolling stock and diecast RTR locomotives that sold for less than half of what loco kits were going for before the war, the HO hobby grew in size by nearly ten-fold.Yes, and most of those products look like junk compared to today's models - some golden age that was! Since most scale hobbyists were craftsmen back then, at least to some degree, one saw the magazines continuously presenting inexpensive projects applicable to most every layout.Hobbyists had to be craftsmen back then, since there wasn't as much RTR available, nor were the models anything like the quality they are now. You're trying to make a virtue out of necessity, but it's an unconvincing argument. Back then the hobby was also about the enjoyment of really building things, things that developed your modeling talents...not about buying and collecting, often to no point, as has become so much a part of the hobby today.That's just your curmudgeonly take on things - you don't care for other people's approach to the hobby so you run it down at every opportunity. And you've contradicted yourself - what was the mad scramble for Lionel and AF if not buying and collecting to no point? It certainly wasn't building on your modelling talents. The biggest failing in the threads one sees here concerning the hobby's history is that so very few have any real idea of what actually went on in the hobby more than a few years ago. As a result, I'm afraid one usually sees simply a series of baseless speculations and opinions unrelated to the actual facts.Which is funny, because a lot of your posts come across as exactly that - opinions unrelated to the actual facts. When did you get appointed Professor Emeritus of MR History?Cheers,Mark.
CNJ831 wrote: No...there most certainly was a golden age in model railroading and it surely isn't now. In the mid 1950's model trains was ranked as the second most popular and practiced hobby in America, only edged out by philately! Is there anyone here so naive as to think our hobby even ranks in the top 100 today?
Aw come on, Mark. Tell us how you REALLY feel.
I don't know why CNJ thinks the 50's were the golden age. I was there, too, and I remember it very distinctly myself. Compare a Walther's SP C30-1 caboose to the Silver Streak caboose based on that prototype. There's no comparison. If you like kits, American Model Builders has one of the same prototype that makes the Silver Streak kit look positively crude in comparison.
Compare Walther's heavyweight passenger cars of today to the wood and metal kits of the time. There's no comparison. And if I were to run a price comparison of yesterday's kits to today's RTR adjusted for inflation it would, at worst, be a wash.
The hobby back then was largely about building the individual components rather than creating a cohesive whole. There were exceptions of course, but the primary emphasis was still on the parts rather than the whole.
Craftsmanship? Look at what Dave Vollmer's doing in N with a Spectrum 4-8-2 and a couple of K-4 boiler and tender shells. Have a gander at Doctorwayne's kitbashed motive power or Ray Breyer's work. How about Pelle Soeborg? Not only can the man detail and paint otherwise RTR motive power, but he can create a layout based on a town I lived in for 2 years as a kid and which I drove through less than a month ago and make me see the resemblance. The only thing missing on Pelle's layout are Joshua trees. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Jtree.jpg
I don't know if you ever watched the TV series "MASH", but all this talk of some past golden age is, in the immortal words of Col. Sherman T. Potter, "Horsehockey!!"
I don't want to rain on this walk down memory lane, but back then there were 2 major players in the toy train industry (Lionel and American Flyer) and a couple of minor ones (Kusan-Auburn and one other one whose name escapes me).
Lionel is still around and going strong. MTH didn't even exist in the 50's/60's. Neither did Weaver or Williams (recently bought by Bachmann). Interestingly enough, if you type "Lionel" into Google, the first thing that appears is the website for Lionel Model Trains. Instead of 1 manufacturer for S gauge toy trains there are now 3 (AF by Lionel, American Models, and S Helper Service). Oh yeah, they're more scale than toy now. If you're into 3 rail O gauge, there are more products available today than Lionel has probably made since its founding and if you prefer S, more is available now than at any other time. Shoot, Lionel's even gone across the pond for its new "Harry Potter" set. I've seen one. It's a beaut and it's not that expensive.
G gauge (regardless of the scale used) didn't even exist back then. Now you can get items in 1:29 scale, 1:32 scale, 1:20.3 (3 ft narrow gauge) and 1:22.5 (European meter gauge). How many garden railroads existed in the 50's? Now there's an entire magazine devoted to that hobby. There are 2 devoted to toy trains (CTT and O Gauge).
We haven't even gotten to the other scales like O 2 rail, HO and N scale. Oh yeah, did I mention that you can buy live steam locomotives in various scales off the shelf.
I don't know about you, but there are going to be trains running under the tree at the Chapelon house for the amusement of the Chapelon grandchildren, 3 of which just love them. The 4th is only 4 months old and can be excused at this point.
Yup. It's dying alright.
P.S. I forgot to mention that the inflation adjusted price of that 'Harry Potter" set is just under $39 in 1954 dollars.
Not to mention that K-Line is now owned by Lionel.
WARNING! This is an opinion which, while based on observation, should not be mistaken for fact!
Anyone who thinks that the 1950s were some kind of golden age probably thinks that the 4-4-0 was the ultimate development of the steam locomotive.
Yes, there were magnificent models built by master craftsmen, often with only rudimentary tools. Bill Hoffmann's Sacramento Northern and Pacific Electric interurban cars were NOT made with laser-cut parts. Mel Thornburgh used all hand tools - his workshop was a roll-top desk.
OTOH, the typical products available to the average hobbyist (including me!) looked like something cut out of odd scraps with stone tools. MR featured a couple of construction series on locomotives with boilers that started life as broom handles. Not until late in the decade did aftermarket detail parts start to approach what we consider 'average' quality.
As far as the popularity of model railroading as measured against other hobbies, in my house the only competition is high quality crocheting! (My wife can, and does, make lace.) As far as the demise of the hobby, it will die when I do - but not before.
Chuck (modeling Central Japan in September, 1964 - for the forseeable future)
OK, the 50's. As I recall, my best Lionel Locomotive was a used 1940's model that someone gave my Dad. Stuff was so expensive, we only had two cars in our train, a tank car and a gondola. When I got into HO in about 1958, Iliked the idea that I could buy a half dozen Athearn box car kits for the price of one Lionel box car. Come to think of it, not much has changed.
But then the 50's made the great automobiles, right? NOT! A few of the looked really classy, but look at the engineering advances in automobiles over the past 50 years. Same with our toy trains, everything is better built, more reliable and actually cheaper than it was back then.
Least that is the way I remember it.
Oh, want to argue about the car thing, a friend is rebuilding a 55 Chevy and he reminded me that they had vacuum windshield wipers. Even the electric windsheild wipers of the 57 Chevy suck compared to the stuff on my Tahoe.
Athearn had rubber band drive, now that was smooth and reliable. My Lionels would only sit and tick when I tried to get them to move, did they call it the E unit?
No, today is the best years of model railroading, just log off your computer next week end and go find a show, swap meet or visit one of the big layouts around.
But hey, this is only my 2 cents, never worth another penny.
Joe Daddy
You mean like disc brakes and ABS, cruise control, variable intermittent wipers, collapsible steering columns, airbags, padded dashes, computer controlled fuel injection, and 200+ horsepower engines that get 25 MPG?
Naw, things were better in the 50's.
Does anyone in here actually care how many other people share their hobby?
Did you get into it because YOU like it, or because other people like it?
It's a safe bet that everyone in here enjoys it. Who cares about everyone else?
Besides I have other problems. Where, exactly should I put Hogwart's Castle in early 1950s Upstate New York and Pennsylvania? Maybe it was in the Poconos. They had all those places with the heart shape bathtubs and champagne glass hot tubs.
Things got so complicated when the grandchildren discovered the joy of railroading. It's just hard to work Thomas the Tank Engine and Hogwart's Express into the Erie Lackawanna and Delaware and Hudson systems........... I have built a small staging yard in a tunnel to park them out of sight when the grandchildren are not present.
PS:
I hope they don't decide they want Polar Express. There is no room in the tunnel to park it.
Folks let's stop and catch our respective breaths for a second on this matter. There are, as I see it, two principal issues surrounding the future of model railroading: 1) Availability of quality items; and 2) ability of the hobby to attract younger modelers to counter the "grim reaper effect."
There is no question in my mind, and this is supported by a lot of the previous comment on this thread, that the answer to #1 is that things are improving all the time. In a few weeks it will be my 50th anniversary in the hobby; and the options available today absolutely boggle the mind as compared to what was available even 20 years ago, let alone 50!
That said, #2 concerns me. I'm afraid that is not happening. There's a staggering amount of activity competing for young people's attention and time today (Just the sports activities alone make me think that if I was a kid today, I, with my general incompetence at athletics, just couldn't cope!) I guess dealing with this issue is what the "World's Greatest Hobby" campaign that we read so much about in Model Railroader is all about. I hope they succeed.
Thomas beating up Horseshoe Curve on a visit from the UK towing a hatful of happy children.
No need to hide anything. Maybe it's me, but if you are quick you might catch me inventorying the latest in the Thomas stuff. If Strasburg can arrange for a steam Thomas and run it on thier line I dont see a problem as long the children enjoy it.
The real test is when the old gaurd rolls in for the ops session. What do you suppose will happen if they were confronted with Sodor and Sir Toppenhat with a fist ful of train orders and waybills?
Once we get past that, we might have a little fun. I recall a trainshow recently where they had a small layout that featured Thomas and Sodor running inside a armored and child proof glass display case. It was right next to a highly finished quality built HO scale layout with a reasonable reproduction of a town, yard etc.
The children didnt pay the big layout any mind. All they wanted to see was Thomas.
I take the position that perhaps the big trains have thier time and when Children are over, break out the Thomas and let them run it. Once they get old enough they might get into the bigger trains.
The challenge is in us old folks who may be too corroded by life to consider it.
The other challenge and a much bigger one is stopping the kids from zoning out on the end of the Ethernet Cable or transporting themselves to neverland on a video game long enough to actually enjoy something that requires laws of physics and mechanical/electrical power of the old style to provide entertainment.
If you keep a home free of such distractions the school will feed them the internet and ruin em that way. In fact, with the wealth of knowledge now on the Internet, who needs skool anyway? =) Just a retorical question folks...
In trucking at a place in Missouri there was a old style electro mechanical game that required a dime to run. It was carefully balanced with a helicopter on a pole where you had to fly it to hit the various trip wires. I recall one evening where about 200 dollars fell into that thing sitting in a hall full of the latest, loudest and best high tech video games. All the drivers had a good time trying to get all of the sensor hits in the shortest time. They actually wore it out a little bit. Some of these fellas were old with one foot in the grave but for a time, everyone was having fun and none of that mattered.
Those big fancy video games? Not one game played on there all that night.
We're run into a problem defining "heyday."
The 1950's were the height of popularity for model and toy trains, as has been described. That's a heyday.
However, the technological development of the hobby is obviously much better today, which can also be defined as a heyday.
The concern of those who worry about such things is that, as the pool of people interested in scale model railroading shrinks--and don't kid yourself, your personal experience notwithstanding, it HAS shrunk--there will be less impetus for new technological development and prices for individual models will rise.
Falls Valley:
Just a month ago the grandchildren (& I) attended "A day out with Thomas" at the North Carolina Transportation Museum.
They got to ride on the full size Thomas, and to see many real trains, both steam and diesel. They got to explore the insides of several cars, including a railway post office, and there were about a dozen running layouts provided by local clubs. One very well done and quite large HO club railroad. One fairly large S guage railroad with dozens of buttons they could push that made things happen on the layout. Two Thomas layouts, one HO and one wooden. Etc.
The highlight of the day, though, seemed to be the turntable ride.
That day did more to foster their fascination with model railroading that anything I ever did.
And yes, I have converted both Thomas and Hogwarts to DCC with working headlights. Kids are not concerned with prototypical realism. Thomas looks really weird running in the subway tunnel. The turns in the subway are too sharp for Hogwarts...
joe-daddy wrote: Athearn had rubber band drive, now that was smooth and reliable. My Lionels would only sit and tick when I tried to get them to move, did they call it the E unit?
I doubt many of the current crop of toy or model trains will be able to make that same claim in 2040 or so.
I don't know why CNJ thinks the 50's were the golden age. I was there, too, and I remember it very distinctly myself..
Compare a Walther's SP C30-1 caboose to the Silver Streak caboose based on that prototype. There's no comparison. If you like kits, American Model Builders has one of the same prototype that makes the Silver Streak kit look positively crude in comparison.
Craftsmanship? Look at what Dave Vollmer's doing in N with a Spectrum 4-8-2 and a couple of K-4 boiler and tender shells. Have a gander at Doctorwayne's kitbashed motive power or Ray Breyer's work. How about Pelle Soeborg? Not only can the man detail and paint otherwise RTR motive power, but he can create a layout based on a town I lived in for 2 years as a kid and which I drove through less than a month ago and make me see the resemblance.
marknewton wrote: BRAKIE wrote:Actually RTR isn't new to the hobby..We had RTR in the 50/60s..I realise that. My point was that the RTR of that period wasn't as plentiful as it is now, nor was it as good in quality as it is now. Modellers then had no choice but to be craftsman. If CNJ were to remove his rose-tinted welding goggles he'd acknowledge that. But I don't think he likes to let the facts get in the way of a good story.
Yes RTR was look down on back then more then today..Athearn,Varney,Mantua,brass engines and cars(true the majority had to be painted),Tyco,Lionel(HO) Atlas,Linbergh and others had RTR cars or engines but,there was still tons of kits and more modelers willing to build those kits or buy brass.Even I looked down on RTR back then but,embrace it today.
You and CNJ will need to hash out the "rose-tinted welding goggles" thing.
tomikawaTT wrote: WARNING! This is an opinion which, while based on observation, should not be mistaken for fact!Anyone who thinks that the 1950s were some kind of golden age probably thinks that the 4-4-0 was the ultimate development of the steam locomotive.Yes, there were magnificent models built by master craftsmen, often with only rudimentary tools. Bill Hoffmann's Sacramento Northern and Pacific Electric interurban cars were NOT made with laser-cut parts. Mel Thornburgh used all hand tools - his workshop was a roll-top desk.OTOH, the typical products available to the average hobbyist (including me!) looked like something cut out of odd scraps with stone tools. MR featured a couple of construction series on locomotives with boilers that started life as broom handles. Not until late in the decade did aftermarket detail parts start to approach what we consider 'average' quality.
TTT:
When I read something like this, I can't help but feel the urge to throw on a little cold water, because I have made a lot of observations of my own. Warning - this is going to be long. I tend to do that.
I like the present day. I don't think the hobby is dying. I prefer, though, to defend our present era on its own merits, and I don't feel we should put down an earlier one by saying it was worse than it really was.
The 1950s were actually not that long ago in model railroading, when we speak of rolling stock technology...and the blanket era-term is misleading, as there was a *ton* of advancement in that decade. Manufacturers and modelers alike were very progressive, and the model-railroad world of 1951 was far, far different from that of 1959, way more than the comparatively miniscule difference between, say, 1999 and 2007.
The typical products available to the average hobbyist -- are still available to the average hobbyist, in many cases, and they were not crude. Mantua was the Athearn of their day, a good, solid product that everybody owned, and some of the best engineering in economical HO steam. Older die-cast steam wasn't generally superdetailed, but for durability and repairability it's hard to beat, and once you get the binds out, they usually run very well. Nothing crude about Penn-Line's large flywheel-worm, much like a Helix Humper, or Bowser's pillow-block bearings.
Diesels were a little different. Diesel drives hadn't developed as long, so there were all sorts of different designs. Athearn's Hi-F drive was there, but it's easy to forget that Athearn also had a gear drive at the same time, and at any rate Hi-F drive wasn't typical. If anything was, it was a chassis-mounted motor driving one truck through some sort of flexible shaft, possibly with another shaft below the chassis connecting the two trucks. Done well, this could work beautifully (Hobbytown). Done badly - ditto. Power trucks were also common. Done well, these could work beautifully (Lindsay). Done badly - likewise. Again, though, the worst of the power-truck drives weren't a product of the 1950s.
As for the Hi-F drive, it was controversial even then. Some authors would express doubts in MR, and then somebody would write in claiming that his Hi-F locos were the best he had. They say the units operate very well in multiple-unit lashups. I can't vouch for that.
Much later, we see a lot of cheaping-out on some formerly good lines, notably Varney, but also MDC, and later Tyco. MDC would redeem itself before Horizon ruined it as a steam line, and Mantua would do the same before trying to be the Franklin Mint. Varney would never recover. I really wonder - is it people's experience with downgraded mid-60s to 70s versions of 1950s locomotives that color their opinions of the decade? Originally, though, they were not crude.
As for crudity of detail, that wasn't entirely typical, either. Molded-plastic and die-cast models could have very good detail, again, much better than some of the stuff that came later. The blue-box Athearn F7 shell was designed back then. It's not perfect, but it's certainly not crude, and the 1950s-designed Athearn Blomberg truck is positively beautiful. The average modeler's equipment wasn't particularly bad. What I see in photos from back then is a lot of Varney and Mantua equipment. The average modeler did also build some craftsman kits. These weren't crude, either. The proportions were usually good, if the superfinest detail wasn't there, and if assembled carefully they got good models -- judging by the photos, a lot of ordinary people could find the needed skill.
I am always amused when I read some Super Modeler in MR describe How Much Better It Is Today, and talks about how crude his old kitbuilt models were, or maybe how he failed to build one and gave up. Well, of course, silly. Skills develop. If you never build that first bad one, and get some practice, you'll never build that first *good* one that makes you feel proud for 3 months. I ruined 6 model car kits before that first perfect 1957 Chevy. I ruined my first locomotive kit by rushing through it, and drove myself nuts on an Arbour kit with a warped frame, but then I bought an MDC Mogul and took my time and it runs like a watch. Nobody ever made progress by fearing to take a step.
The Kitchen Table Loco series you refer to was a sort of gimmick, and again, like the Hi-F drive, it was controversial, and not really typical of the time. It would have been more typical of the HO modeling of the Thirties, when such materials were promoted by Eric La Nal, who made decent if simply detailed models from them. He even tried making truck frames from oak tag paper. Even in the Thirties, however, this sort of thing raised considerable letters-page controversy. These techniques still crop up now and again. Bud Sima wrote an MR article about his wood-and-card Ma & Pa 2-8-0, built on an Old Lady chassis, in 1972.
The only time when a lot of average hobbyist products really looked like something "cut from scraps with stone tools" :), in HO, was at the very beginning, in the 1930s, and even then there were many fine models available. Things got better through the 1940s, and by the late 1950s the scale was really not so different from today. N saw a similar, faster evolution. O was already pretty good in the 1930s. Later we would see various devolutions and revolutions in the various scales, but that's a story for another day.
In the end, though, what makes the 1945-1959 period of model railroading so attractive isn't related to the models themselves, but to the attitude of the modelers. There was a huge increase in popularity, and a lot more innovation than we see today. People really wanted to have fun with their trains. I love reading old RMC's and MRs. What I like about this forum is that a lot of that attitude exists here, too.
andrechapelon wrote:Craftsmanship? Look at what Dave Vollmer's doing in N with a Spectrum 4-8-2 and a couple of K-4 boiler and tender shells. Andre
Craftsmanship? Look at what Dave Vollmer's doing in N with a Spectrum 4-8-2 and a couple of K-4 boiler and tender shells.
Thanks for the shout-out, Andre! But this makes an excellent point I've tried to make before.
I'm not doing the PRR M1 kitbash as an excercise in the lost art of craftsmanship (of course, under close scrutiny, my work isn't all that...look at Max Magliaro if you want N scale steam craftsmanship!). Rather, I'm doing it of necessity, doing what a well-advertised manufacturer failed to do.
It seems to me much of the craftsmanship of old comes of necessity, not as some Zen art. My father is a true craftsman; he still scratchbuilds from basswood with plans he builds himself. But he does this for things he can't buy. He has RTR stuff too.
So my M1 kitbash is not as much a means to keep a golden art alive as it is to fill a need. I suspect that is why so many modelers in the 50s did what they did. Were RTR so prolific then as now, I think the history of the hobby would be different. After all, even in the 50s, TV had begun seriously competing for spare time with traditional hobbies in well-to-do households.
Soo Line fan wrote:Down boys, I am not referring to present day. I came across an interesting interview with Nat Polk. His theory of why trains declined back in the 60s was the following:"The demise of toy trains came when everybody began to chase the $19.95 or $24.95 starter sets of trains from Sears and Montgomery Ward.In other words, the manufacturers all thought that the starter sets had to sell for $19.95 or $24.95, and they couldn't come up with any kind of quality at that price, so things got worse and worse quality wise.People had bad quality experiences with them. Even the small storekeepers had bad experiences with them.You know it all culminated in that Scout set. The Scout set was the final ruination of all the cheap, cheap catalog sets that we all, sadly, had to have." -Nat Polk 1995Jim
Down boys, I am not referring to present day.
I came across an interesting interview with Nat Polk. His theory of why trains declined back in the 60s was the following:
"The demise of toy trains came when everybody began to chase the $19.95 or $24.95 starter sets of trains from Sears and Montgomery Ward.
In other words, the manufacturers all thought that the starter sets had to sell for $19.95 or $24.95, and they couldn't come up with any kind of quality at that price, so things got worse and worse quality wise.
People had bad quality experiences with them. Even the small storekeepers had bad experiences with them.
You know it all culminated in that Scout set. The Scout set was the final ruination of all the cheap, cheap catalog sets that we all, sadly, had to have." -Nat Polk 1995
The December 2007 RMC lists train sets for Christmas. In HO they start at $99.98 (Athearn) and go all the way up to $416 (Trix) . Bit pricey for a child's toy. Looks like the $19.95 price line has failed to hold. One of the Bachmann sets comes with the 2-8-0 Consoidation, which is one hell of a nice locomotive for a trainset.
David Starr www.newsnorthwoods.blogspot.com
dstarr wrote: Soo Line fan wrote: Down boys, I am not referring to present day. I came across an interesting interview with Nat Polk. His theory of why trains declined back in the 60s was the following:"The demise of toy trains came when everybody began to chase the $19.95 or $24.95 starter sets of trains from Sears and Montgomery Ward.In other words, the manufacturers all thought that the starter sets had to sell for $19.95 or $24.95, and they couldn't come up with any kind of quality at that price, so things got worse and worse quality wise.People had bad quality experiences with them. Even the small storekeepers had bad experiences with them.You know it all culminated in that Scout set. The Scout set was the final ruination of all the cheap, cheap catalog sets that we all, sadly, had to have." -Nat Polk 1995JimThe December 2007 RMC lists train sets for Christmas. In HO they start at $99.98 (Athearn) and go all the way up to $416 (Trix) . Bit pricey for a child's toy. Looks like the $19.95 price line has failed to hold. One of the Bachmann sets comes with the 2-8-0 Consoidation, which is one hell of a nice locomotive for a trainset.
Soo Line fan wrote: Down boys, I am not referring to present day. I came across an interesting interview with Nat Polk. His theory of why trains declined back in the 60s was the following:"The demise of toy trains came when everybody began to chase the $19.95 or $24.95 starter sets of trains from Sears and Montgomery Ward.In other words, the manufacturers all thought that the starter sets had to sell for $19.95 or $24.95, and they couldn't come up with any kind of quality at that price, so things got worse and worse quality wise.People had bad quality experiences with them. Even the small storekeepers had bad experiences with them.You know it all culminated in that Scout set. The Scout set was the final ruination of all the cheap, cheap catalog sets that we all, sadly, had to have." -Nat Polk 1995Jim
David,The cheapest train set I found was a LL at $59.99..
http://www.walthers.com/exec/productinfo/433-8992
With that said was I to buy one for a kid I would buy a Bachmann Santa Fe Flyer for $83.00 unless the kid showed a genuine interest in the hobby.Then I would buy the kid a Athearn or Atlas set.
Autobus Prime wrote: Athearn's Hi-F drive was there, but it's easy to forget that Athearn also had a gear drive at the same time, and at any rate Hi-F drive wasn't typical. .... As for the Hi-F drive, it was controversial even then. Some authors would express doubts in MR, and then somebody would write in claiming that his Hi-F locos were the best he had. They say the units operate very well in multiple-unit lashups. I can't vouch for that.
We look back and laugh at Athearn Hi-F drive today [for those too young to remember, it was the one with rubber bands], but as long you kept a supply of rubber bands on hand** at all times, they worked OK and could pull a resonable-size train. We all owe Irving Athearn a lot for producing those affordable diesels*** --- and by the standards of the time, very nice models! --- in the 50s. BTW, I shouldn't restrict it to the 50s, since I remember Hi-F diesels being around at least till the mid 60s.
_____________________________________
** One slight irritant was that the size of bands used didn't match anything you could get in an office supply store, so you had to buy your bands from Athearn! I guess Irving figured out how to control the supply.
***F-7, GP-9, Hustler, RDC --- Let's see, did I miss any?
Little or nothing of what is said in this post is fact. It's merely an observation from a young, new modeler.
I asked the "heyday" question for this reason. It seems that the reference to how things were better was based on excitement for trains. I'm sure the fifties were really exciting for the hobby. Trains were the "it" toy. Somehow, I don't think the high numbers reported for playing with trains translated into hobbyists. Buying a train for the Christmas tree does not make you a modeler. It makes you a consumer. I believe this difference is what led to the split of toy train collectors and scale modelers. I also think that it's easy to increase numbers ten fold when something is new and exciting. Do I think that the golden era is now, not really. As has been pointed out in numerous threads, not as many kids are into trains as before. I don't really think that means the death of model railroading.
Just for some perspective..
That $25 train set in 1975 would cost $95 now when adjusted for inflation..
I used this inflation calculator: http://www.westegg.com/inflation/
tomikawaTT wrote: WARNING! This is an opinion which, while based on observation, should not be mistaken for fact!Anyone who thinks that the 1950s were some kind of golden age probably thinks that the 4-4-0 was the ultimate development of the steam locomotive.Yes, there were magnificent models built by master craftsmen, often with only rudimentary tools. Bill Hoffmann's Sacramento Northern and Pacific Electric interurban cars were NOT made with laser-cut parts. Mel Thornburgh used all hand tools - his workshop was a roll-top desk.OTOH, the typical products available to the average hobbyist (including me!) looked like something cut out of odd scraps with stone tools. MR featured a couple of construction series on locomotives with boilers that started life as broom handles. Not until late in the decade did aftermarket detail parts start to approach what we consider 'average' quality.As far as the popularity of model railroading as measured against other hobbies, in my house the only competition is high quality crocheting! (My wife can, and does, make lace.) As far as the demise of the hobby, it will die when I do - but not before.Chuck (modeling Central Japan in September, 1964 - for the forseeable future)
Actually the 50s was rather interesting..New brass steam engines came out on a monthly bases as did seveal plastic cars and engines..A lot of layout ideas we embrace today was discuss in the 50s as was operation..
Now let's try taking brass or tin stock along with detail parts from Cal-Scale and turn it into a operating locomotive.My dad could but,I can't.Can you?
The brass steamers had tons of details.
Actually I thought the 60s was better model wise.
And now for a lighter moment...
This hobby will not die until I authorize it to die! You will need to pry my DT400 throttle from my cold, dead hands before this hobby will be allowed to meet its demise!
Ifn' I have to build trains from empty Play Station 3 and XBox360 game cartridge boxes, then that, by gum, is what I'm gonna do!
...and, they'll probably still run better than a Tyco!
And now back to your regularly scheduled "hobby death/cost" debate...!
If you look around you, it's hard to argue that RIGHT NOW isn't the Golden Age. Adjusted for inflation, model trains are as affordable as ever, and available in greater variety and quantity than ever before.
There's tons of younger guys involved in the hobby, and tons more guys in their 40's who are coming out of the woodwork all the time now that they have careers in place, the mortgage payment is manageable, and the crumb catchers have grown to actual size. There are certainly more hobby choices these days, but hasn't that always been the case?
Part of the enjoyment of a hobby comes from the development of skills and expansion of knowledge. That's why many of us are getting grey around the temples... We're in the part of our lives where this type of thing is interesting!
As long as guys keep turning 40, there'll be a market for model railroad stuff.
wm3798 wrote: As long as guys keep turning 40, there'll be a market for model railroad stuff.
You're welcome, Dave, and what you said is precisely the point. It was pretty much the point in the 50's/60's as well. You scratchbuilt/kitbashed something because it just wasn't available, not as an exercise in showing off your skills. Interestingly enough, the word "kitbash" was borrowed from the Brits and was a relatively unknown term here until about the mid-1960's.
I could kid you a bit and suggest that you'd have a lot less work to do in HO scale, since BLI/PCM actually did release an M-1 and one is available in kit form from Bowser, but I don't want to ignite the war of the scales especially since I don't care what scale it's in. Good modeling is good modeling.
Dave Vollmer wrote: And now for a lighter moment...This hobby will not die until I authorize it to die! You will need to pry my DT400 throttle from my cold, dead hands before this hobby will be allowed to meet its demise!Ifn' I have to build trains from empty Play Station 3 and XBox360 game cartridge boxes, then that, by gum, is what I'm gonna do!...and, they'll probably still run better than a Tyco!And now back to your regularly scheduled "hobby death/cost" debate...!
Now just wait a minute there, Dave. Nobody has the authority to authorize the hobby to die unless I give them that authority and I ain't giving that up until I die.
That's going to be a while because my wife refuses to authorize my death. 'Course, that could change at any time.
If it dies tomorrow, then you and I will be the envy of the neighbors. WE HAVE OURS.
I have enough trains to hold me until my end of days. I'll just spend the rest of my life tinking with the structures and terrain.
Sincerely'
Other Dave
on30francisco wrote:For the holidays, the San Francisco Public Library set up a Christmas display of an O gauge Lionel Thomas and regular steam engine pulling lighted passenger cars. The trains and lights in the village can be controlled by the public by pushing various buttons. There is always a standing crowd around it of both kids and adults.
wm3798 wrote: If you look around you, it's hard to argue that RIGHT NOW isn't the Golden Age. Adjusted for inflation, model trains are as affordable as ever, and available in greater variety and quantity than ever before.
No disagreement with those points
wm3798 wrote: There's tons of younger guys involved in the hobby, and tons more guys in their 40's who are coming out of the woodwork all the time now that they have careers in place, the mortgage payment is manageable, and the crumb catchers have grown to actual size. There are certainly more hobby choices these days, but hasn't that always been the case?
You're making that assertion with all the authority in the world. I hope you're right!!
Midnight Railroader wrote: on30francisco wrote:For the holidays, the San Francisco Public Library set up a Christmas display of an O gauge Lionel Thomas and regular steam engine pulling lighted passenger cars. The trains and lights in the village can be controlled by the public by pushing various buttons. There is always a standing crowd around it of both kids and adults.Encouraging, but that really doesn't have any bearing on the number of people involved with scale model railroading as their hobby.
Encouraging, but that really doesn't have any bearing on the number of people involved with scale model railroading as their hobby.
Unfortunately, absolutely nothing whatever. Many these days like to point to Thomas as in some manner the hobby's potential savior and as generating future hobbyists, in the same manner that Lionel and Flyer did for youths of two generations ago. However, there hasn't been even a shred of evidence that their actually exists any such tie-in. Looked at objectively, Thomas appeals largely to pre-schoolers, not particularly to kids in their later pre-teens, where yesteryear's model railroad hobbyists came from. Further, Lionel and Flyer represented real trains in miniature, while Thomas is simply a fantasy character, the same as TV's Jay Jay the Jet Plane.
So far no one has been able to show any fact or figure even suggesting that kids who watched the Thomas series in their earliest years are influenced toward becoming model railroaders. The Thomas series began in the United States nearly 20 years ago (1989), making its earliest viewers perhaps 20-25 today. So where is the influx of new blood as a result? A posted question here from a while back asked who among forum members had been influenced by Thomas to later take up model railroading. Only a single individual came forward to indicate he had. On a forum of supposedly 40,000+ members, that is hardly an influential or encouaging figure!
My advice is to forget Thomas as being in any manner influential in helping generate future hobbyist..it just isn't a realistic idea.
"while Thomas is simply a fantasy character, the same as TV's Jay Jay the Jet Plane. "
Try telling that to my granddaughters. They have ridden Thomas. The rest of the tour of the Transportation museum where it took place has generated a tremendous fascination with trains.
The eldest now reads my Model Railroader magazine, and begs to go to a crossing to watch freight trains go by, and is in heaven ever time she gets to ride our local light rail.
I really need to take her somewhere on Amtrak.
CNJ831 wrote: The Thomas series began in the United States nearly 20 years ago (1989), making its earliest viewers perhaps 20-25 today. So where is the influx of new blood as a result?
The Thomas series began in the United States nearly 20 years ago (1989), making its earliest viewers perhaps 20-25 today. So where is the influx of new blood as a result?
C:
Dating. They'll be back around age 35, after being married a few years.
It will be interesting to see what influence (if any) Thomas has on model railroaders in future years. It may still be a little early to tell, since the Thomas "boom" really only goes back to the nineties. I know in my generation (49 now) and older there was often a pattern - O27 or S train set as as kid, sometimes continuing in tinplate into the teen years or switching to scale trains along the way, then a hiatus during college / military service / girls / starting a career and family, then returning to the hobby in their 30's or 40's.
I know my alma mater has a model railroad club now (I'm an alumni member) and is building a substantial layout on campus. We didn't have any such club c.1980 when I was there, so it does appear there is perhaps a growing interest in model railroading among the younger folks...or maybe they're just better organized than we were at that age?!
On an inflation adjusted basis, a train set going for $24.95 in 1960 would sell for $176.11 today and a $19.95 set went for today's equivalent of around $141. Both Walthers and Athearn have sets for less and the 6 car Athearn passenger set sells for roughly the inflation adjusted price of the $24.95 set in 1960.
Incidentally, most HO sets back then didn't include a power pack.
I wish this hobby would hurry up and die so I can get some real bargains on eBay. Imagine a box full of brass locomotives for $10. I can't wait.
Autobus Prime wrote: CNJ831 wrote: The Thomas series began in the United States nearly 20 years ago (1989), making its earliest viewers perhaps 20-25 today. So where is the influx of new blood as a result? C:Dating. They'll be back around age 35, after being married a few years.
And upon what bit of insight re Thomas' influence on the hobby do you base that? As always, I am afraid when it comes to Thomas such linkage is only the wishful thinking of the hobbyist, not based on any actual evidence or even a rational evaluation of the situation.
If I am incorrect about Thomas having no influence whatever on creating future hobbyists, please do point out what varifiable evidence indicates otherwise. Some posters claim, "My kids love Thomas and my layout", or something similar. What does that indicate? Odds are it's only true for them simply because they are modelers already.
In reality, if there is no indication of new hobbyists coming from the ranks of Thomas lovers after 20 years of the show being on TV, you can pretty much write off the idea of it having any hobby influence. By comparison, in the days of tinplate the evidence of that influence in creating new scale hobbyist, from pre-teens on up in age, was overwhelming...and most didn't wait until 35+ to exhibit it, according to MR, 1 hobbyist in 5 was a teen in 1956!
CNJ831 wrote: Autobus Prime wrote: CNJ831 wrote: The Thomas series began in the United States nearly 20 years ago (1989), making its earliest viewers perhaps 20-25 today. So where is the influx of new blood as a result? C:Dating. They'll be back around age 35, after being married a few years.And upon what bit of insight re Thomas' influence on the hobby do you base that? As always, I am afraid when it comes to Thomas such linkage is only the wishful thinking of the hobbyist, not based on any actual evidence or even a rational evaluation of the situation.If I am incorrect about Thomas having no influence whatever on creating future hobbyists, please do point out what varifiable evidence indicates otherwise. Some posters claim, "My kids love Thomas and my layout", or something similar. What does that indicate? Odds are it's only true for them simply because they are modelers already. In reality, if there is no indication of new hobbyists coming from the ranks of Thomas lovers after 20 years of the show being on TV, you can pretty much write off the idea of it having any hobby influence. By comparison, in the days of tinplate the evidence of that influence in creating new scale hobbyist, from pre-teens on up in age, was overwhelming...and most didn't wait until 35+ to exhibit it, according to MR, 1 hobbyist in 5 was a teen in 1956!CNJ831
Some people think the cup is half full. Others think it is half empty. Then there are the few who think that the cup is a mythical beast and arguing about its contents is an exercise in futility.
Have fun with your trains
I too tire of all the chest beating going on about who has the best knowledge of the future of the hobby.
The truth is none of us knows exactly what the future holds -- but I can guarantee you this -- it will be different than it is today. As long as there's an internet and at least two people in the hobby, they can share ideas instantly and keep in contact to send each other parts, etc. This is way better than the fix we'd be in if the hobby died after the 1960s as was predicted back then.
Thanks to the internet, the hobby will continue to survive well into the future, which works for me.
Joe Fugate Modeling the 1980s SP Siskiyou Line in southern Oregon
Since none of those teenagers/young adults who are or aren't present/potential model railroaders live under my personal roof, I'm not going to worry about them - or their potential influence on this hobby.
As for the bucket of brass for $10.00, wait for my estate sale. Of course, the brass will be 1:80 scale Japanese prototype. (Don't hold your breath waiting. My father died in his 90s, and I'm WAY healthier than he was at my age.)
The ones who should be concerned about a possible decline are all you DCC hounds. Anyone who knows the difference between an electron and a proton can build an analog DC power pack from electronic parts house components. DCC items usually require an electrical engineer with a minor in data processing (and a skilled hand with a pencil iron!)
Chuck (modeling Central Japan in September, 1964)
vsmith wrote:Thomas is bigger today than ever, and those kids have parents that are buying an awful lot of Thomas stuff today. So the New Blood is disguised as such, the income is coming into those making the Thomas stuff but there's a negligable overflow into true scale modeling, so we get stealth hobbiests who dont even realize they are part of the hobby with all that Thomas purchases.
Look, I love this hobby.
But it does no good for people to say things like they see lots of people looking at holiday train displays or that their kids like Thomas or that the hobby shop looks busy or that a manufacturer just came out with the model they need.
That's called anecdotal evidence. If I go in to Caboose Hobbies on Monday at 2pm and there's no one there, it wouldn't be right for me to claim the hobby is dead because of that. If a hobby shop closes down, that MIGHT be evidence that the hobby's in decline--or it could mean the owner mismanaged the place and went bankrupt.
The hard evidence--number of people involved in the hobby, i.e., building scale models, layouts, operating, etc., is not at a record high. It is dropping.
To quote the Vulcan Ambasador, Sarek:
"Telarites do not debate, they just argue"
Okay, I have to ask...
If you knew for sure, with irrefutable evidence, that the hobby was in fact going to die in 20 years, what would you do differently?
If the answer is "nothing," then the argument is eventually futile.
If the answer is to hoard up as many model trains as possible, get spendin'!
If the answer is to quit the hobby, then have fun in whatever else you choose to do.
For me, I'd do nothing different.
We need hard numbers. I suggest the federal government to a trace on all purchases of model train-related products and track that number monthly. More importantly, they need to identify the number of people making purchases rather than simply the number of purchases.
Sound silly? Well, I can't think of a more irrefutable way to get hard evidence. All this "I know a guy on the inside" is no more concrete than "my kids love Thomas" or "my LHS closed" or "that WGH show was packed."
So, in all seriousness, it's agonizingly clear that some people have rose-colored glasses, others have very dark-colored glasses, and the rest have fogged-up glasses (like me). No one has changed anyone's mind in the dozens of threads on this topic. We all claim our own anticdotal or incomplete data are all the evidence we need to prove our point, but in the end we can't predict how much the hobby has declined, will decline, or when and if it will plateau, or if it will, in fact, die completely.
Just don't tell the manufacturers the death throes have begun, because some of them seem to think there's still money to be made in the hobby!
I have a great respect for some of the long-time hobbyists who can vouch for their personal observations of the hobby of the past 50 years. But in science, we have a thing we call "the dangers of extrapolation." That is, trends that are not linear cannot be extrapolated into the future with 100% certainty.
Case in point: the housing market. Just a few years ago, if you'd extrapolated the then-current trend, the average US home would be going for close to a half mil. The "trend" didn't foresee the market collapse. The same is true here.
Will the hobby continue to decline to zero? I doubt it, but I don't know. Will it get smaller but more focused? That's my personal bet, but I don't know. All I know is that it will be different. Model railroading is a nonlinear system; there are natural unpredictabilities that are profound enough to render this whole debate irrelevant IMHO.
Whew!
Midnight Railroader wrote: vsmith wrote:Thomas is bigger today than ever, and those kids have parents that are buying an awful lot of Thomas stuff today. So the New Blood is disguised as such, the income is coming into those making the Thomas stuff but there's a negligable overflow into true scale modeling, so we get stealth hobbiests who dont even realize they are part of the hobby with all that Thomas purchases.But where's the evidence that those kids continue to stay with the hobby when they grow out of the Thomas age?Look, I love this hobby. But it does no good for people to say things like they see lots of people looking at holiday train displays or that their kids like Thomas or that the hobby shop looks busy or that a manufacturer just came out with the model they need.That's called anecdotal evidence. If I go in to Caboose Hobbies on Monday at 2pm and there's no one there, it wouldn't be right for me to claim the hobby is dead because of that. If a hobby shop closes down, that MIGHT be evidence that the hobby's in decline--or it could mean the owner mismanaged the place and went bankrupt. The hard evidence--number of people involved in the hobby, i.e., building scale models, layouts, operating, etc., is not at a record high. It is dropping.
I cant prove anything other than I know alot of LHS here make their bread and butter with Thomas stuff sales, I'd agree that most of these kids move on to other things as they get older, some may return when they themselves start having families but I would agree that number is small.
All I was observing was that while the hardcore modelers do appear to be a dying breed, the manufacturers ARE finding ways to adjust to the new market and continue to make money, another is the plethora of RTR cars and buildings, and what about all that plastic ballasted snap-track out there, which I think looks like crap, all which old timers point to the as the death, or at least severe wounding, of true craftsman building, which I do agree with. RTR, Thomas, dont do the "Old School" modelers any good, but as things change, the hobby changes, and we have to adjust to those changes, I'm not saying we have to go along with them but change happens whether we like it or not. Its how we adapt to them that counts.
Dave Vollmer wrote: Okay, I have to ask...If you knew for sure, with irrefutable evidence, that the hobby was in fact going to die in 20 years, what would you do differently?Whew!
Well, there are a few things I'd try to add to my roster before the meteor takes out the factory
Midnight Railroader wrote:... The hard evidence...
...
The hard evidence...
Well that's the rub. We don't have any, so no one really knows. Some magazine circulation numbers are lower now than a selected point in the past, some hobby shops are closed, train shows and Internet dealers seems to have arisen as major points of sales. But no one knows how any of that correlates to the number of model railroaders or if there even is a correlation. Heck, we can't even agree on who is a model railroader.
This is one of my favorite monthly threads. We all pool our ignorance with much argument and not a whisper of knowing.
vsmith wrote:All I was observing was that while the hardcore modelers do appear to be a dying breed, the manufacturers ARE finding ways to adjust to the new market and continue to make money, another is the plethora of RTR cars and buildings, and what about all that plastic ballasted snap-track out there, which I think looks like crap, all which old timers point to the as the death, or at least severe wounding, of true craftsman building, which I do agree with. RTR, Thomas, dont do the "Old School" modelers any good, but as things change, the hobby changes, and we have to adjust to those changes
All I was observing was that while the hardcore modelers do appear to be a dying breed, the manufacturers ARE finding ways to adjust to the new market and continue to make money, another is the plethora of RTR cars and buildings, and what about all that plastic ballasted snap-track out there, which I think looks like crap, all which old timers point to the as the death, or at least severe wounding, of true craftsman building, which I do agree with. RTR, Thomas, dont do the "Old School" modelers any good, but as things change, the hobby changes, and we have to adjust to those changes
vs:
But preballasted sectional track used to be hugely popular: Tru-Scale Ready-Track. Lots of people used it! Like preballasted snap-track today, it looked a little stiff and was a bit restrictive, but it was a huge convenience for a lot of people.
I used to worry about RTR taking over, but I've gotten over that. I think there will always be plenty people in this hobby who like kits best, plenty of RTR fans who want to branch out, and plenty of manufacturers to supply the material. I now suspect that the big expansion of RTR was a filling of a supply void that had developed somehow.
The first RTR boom by Mantua etc. years and years back probably got a lot of people into scale railroading. I think this hobby has always been a largely RTR thing for a lot of the people in it -- before the RTR (and simple screwdriver kits), Joe Sixpack was probably a hi-railer. At some point, somehow, RTR became synonymous with the top-end brass and the bottom-end trainset stuff, and all the "good stuff" was some sort of kit.
Of course, I have a book from the early 1940s, MODEL RAILROAD ENGINEERING, a very good work by an editor of Popular Mechanics, and excellent good reading, which explains the merits of the currently available loco kits, but is quite careful to explain that something so simple "can hardly be considered model building". He's mostly referring to 1940s O, folks. Scale-Craft and the like...
This is the thread that never ends...This is the thread that never ends....This is the thread that never ends....Let's sing it again, This is the thread that never ends....
Oh, you may have thought it ended. But it'll be back next week under a different title. Can't seem to get enough of beating that horse carcass, even though it's unrecognizeable due to all the mutilation.
David beat me to the bunch: what difference is it going to make to me if one side or the other is correct? If the hobby is going to die soon, I have no additional $$ to buy while I still can. If the hobby is still going to be around, then I have no reason to change what I am doing.
It's a hobby, and we're supposed to having fun. So, bye for now.
jfugate wrote: I too tire of all the chest beating going on about who has the best knowledge of the future of the hobby. The truth is none of us knows exactly what the future holds -- but I can guarantee you this -- it will be different than it is today. As long as there's an internet and at least two people in the hobby, they can share ideas instantly and keep in contact to send each other parts, etc. This is way better than the fix we'd be in if the hobby died after the 1960s as was predicted back then. Thanks to the internet, the hobby will continue to survive well into the future, which works for me.
Some times one can judge the hobby by what we see or don't see..Again the WGH push back by those that stand to lose the most isn't a unexplainable anomaly as its real and verifiable as is the closing of hobby shops beyond the normal retirement or passing of the owner.
tomikawaTT wrote:As for the bucket of brass for $10.00, wait for my estate sale. Of course, the brass will be 1:80 scale Japanese prototype. (Don't hold your breath waiting. My father died in his 90s, and I'm WAY healthier than he was at my age.)
jfugate wrote:Thanks to the internet, the hobby will continue to survive well into the future, which works for me.
Joe,
I've met your grandson - twice now. Even let him run my personal locomotive that was visiting the Siskiyou Line the first time.
I know _exactly_ who is going to inherit your railroad stuff, as he's already inherited your passion.
Autobus Prime wrote: vsmith wrote:All I was observing was that while the hardcore modelers do appear to be a dying breed, the manufacturers ARE finding ways to adjust to the new market and continue to make money, another is the plethora of RTR cars and buildings, and what about all that plastic ballasted snap-track out there, which I think looks like crap, all which old timers point to the as the death, or at least severe wounding, of true craftsman building, which I do agree with. RTR, Thomas, dont do the "Old School" modelers any good, but as things change, the hobby changes, and we have to adjust to those changesvs:But preballasted sectional track used to be hugely popular: Tru-Scale Ready-Track. Lots of people used it! Like preballasted snap-track today, it looked a little stiff and was a bit restrictive, but it was a huge convenience for a lot of people.I used to worry about RTR taking over, but I've gotten over that. I think there will always be plenty people in this hobby who like kits best, plenty of RTR fans who want to branch out, and plenty of manufacturers to supply the material. I now suspect that the big expansion of RTR was a filling of a supply void that had developed somehow.The first RTR boom by Mantua etc. years and years back probably got a lot of people into scale railroading. I think this hobby has always been a largely RTR thing for a lot of the people in it -- before the RTR (and simple screwdriver kits), Joe Sixpack was probably a hi-railer. At some point, somehow, RTR became synonymous with the top-end brass and the bottom-end trainset stuff, and all the "good stuff" was some sort of kit.Of course, I have a book from the early 1940s, MODEL RAILROAD ENGINEERING, a very good work by an editor of Popular Mechanics, and excellent good reading, which explains the merits of the currently available loco kits, but is quite careful to explain that something so simple "can hardly be considered model building". He's mostly referring to 1940s O, folks. Scale-Craft and the like...
Whats the old saying? "I used to be offended, now I'm just amused"
I agree with you, I never said the stuff wasnt popular, then or now, even that crappy looking old wood tru-scale stuff, I knew a guy whos whole layout was that stuff. I just chose not to use it myself (too poor)
The RTR trend is definetly here to stay, I've known that for a long time. You should check out my scale, in G, everything is RTR, literally! Use to be in HO or O you bought a kit to save money, but in G, the only affordable kits to really speak of are just structures, and even most of those like Piko or Pola kits, are pre-colored, snap together type kits with predetermined signage stickers and get put together out of the box and plopped down on a layout without a wink, so theres a very annoying aspect to large scale in that almost everyone has the exact same buildings on their layouts, and to make matters worse they run their trains straight out of the box so many people have the same trains running around the same buildings! the only thing unique is the track plan!
THAT is the true danger of RTR, the numbing conformity of complacency, of same trains, of same structures, what next, is someone going to market RTR layouts straight out of the box?
Now I'm old enough to have grown up reading about the older generation who virtually carved their HO trains out of styrene, and scratchbuilt almost everything they had. I have tremendous admiration for layouts like the Gorre & Dephitid or the Crooked Mountain Lines, from them I learned to carve the styrene RTRs into kitbashes, cut my fingers a lot but I did learn...I guess I just find that resistance to trying to learn hardest to accept in some (not all) model railroaders today, regardless of what scale they run, they just "want it now".
But where's the evidence that those kids continue to stay with the hobby when they grow out of the Thomas age?
Well, build me a time machine and I'll go forward 30-40 years into the future and find out for you. It's the only way to find out if the hobby will still be alive and kicking. 'Course, it might then be in the process of shuffling off this mortal coil and I would have to return to tell you that the hobby's dying, but you got the time frame all wrong.
For crying out loud, could anyone have predicted back in 1951 when I was 5 and watching the daily D&RGW local go by our house that, at the age of 61, I would still be interested in trains? Yeah, there were toy trains and steam in revenue service when I was a kid and this is touted as a reason that Boomers who are into the hobby ARE into the hobby, but how many others of my age had similar experiences and could care less about trains today?
Boomers weren't all born at once and the birth rate peaked in the years 1957-1961, essentially after steam was gone and after Lionel's and American Flyer's businesses had started to decline significantly. There's a lot of Boomers out there who never actually saw a steam engine in regular service and who didn't have an electric train set when they were kids. For those of us Boomers who were born prior to 1950, steam was essentially gone well before we reached puberty (SP's last official revenue steam trip occurred several months before I turned 11 and 350 miles from where I lived at the time).
Oh no? One could have made the same observation when I was a kid. Lots of people did look at holiday train displays back then. Kids did like Lionel and American Flyer (Thomas was in the future). Some even got train sets. Not everyone who did became a model railroader, but some certainly did. From what our pal CNJ writes, one gets the impression that Thomas emerged full blown as a phenomenon back in the late 80's/early 90's and has remained steady state ever since. That's not the case. It started relatively small and grew larger year by year until you can't go into any store that carries toys without finding Thomas in some form. We're not talking flash-in-the-pan fads like Cabbage Patch Kids, either. Thomas has demonstrated a staying power that other toys can only wish for.
O.K. You've made the claim, you provide the numbers. Are you including 3 rail O gauge, garden railroads, etc., or are you blowing them off as something that shouldn't be counted? And if the numbers are dropping, why is that there is more stuff available than at any other time in history with more on the way? The manufacturers must lack any business sense whatsoever to be investing in new tooling when their market is shrinking as we speak.
Maybe the hobby will die, I don't know. What I do know for sure is that I will eventually die and what I object to is the non-stop playing of funeral dirges (for the hobby, not me). The reason I say this is that I have much more of my life behind me than in front of me. Having said that, I intend to have some fun with whatever time I have left. The hobby's not dead yet, so why not enjoy it and quit worrying about its demise (imminent or otherwise)? As a grandparent, all I can do is expose my grandkids to the hobby (be it through Thomas or some other method or a combination). Whether or not memories of Grandpa and their own experiences will be enough to induce one or more of the grandkids to take up the hobby remains to be seen. And in the end, who cares? Life is to be lived and you don't live by constantly obsessing about your own death or the death of your favorite hobby.
If you ask the question - why do people get involved in model trains, then the answer to the prophets of doom is that our hobby will always be around.
IMO, the main reasons why people start in this hobby are a love of trains, a love of creation or both. This is why you see layouts where the trains dominate and others where the trains only seem to serve to animate a static model display. The former group are the ones who fall for the hobby as kids, maybe drop it for wine, women and song but return once their life is settled. The latter group are the ones who take the hobby up from scratch at a later time in life.
Numbers will rise and fall, but there will always be a percentage of the population with the mindset and the time to take up the hobby.
Escalating costs are down to volume and the demand for models of higher standards. The costs do not stop determined and committed modellers from shelling out the bucks or getting creative. Down here we pay the best part of $700 for a BLI standard loco with DCC and sound. Make that over $900 for a garret. If our loco of choice is not available RTR, then a whitemetal and brass kit (2 months of spare time to assemble and paint) will come in between $350 and $550. We are just happy to have models of our favourite Aussie locos available.
The high cost here probably explains why the vast majority of Aussie modellers are trains fans first and foremost. The high costs of the models push the creative types into some other persuit.
Cheers, Ian from Oz.
ps: Multiply those numbers by 0.9 for US dollars.
vsmith wrote: I agree with you, I never said the stuff wasnt popular, then or now, even that crappy looking old wood tru-scale stuff, I knew a guy whos whole layout was that stuff. I just chose not to use it myself (too poor) THAT is the true danger of RTR, the numbing conformity of complacency, of same trains, of same structures, what next, is someone going to market RTR layouts straight out of the box? Now I'm old enough to have grown up reading about the older generation who virtually carved their HO trains out of styrene, and scratchbuilt almost everything they had. I have tremendous admiration for layouts like the Gorre & Dephitid or the Crooked Mountain Lines, from them I learned to carve the styrene RTRs into kitbashes, cut my fingers a lot but I did learn...I guess I just find that resistance to trying to learn hardest to accept in some (not all) model railroaders today, regardless of what scale they run, they just "want it now".
No, I knew you weren't saying the prefab track wasn't popular. You were saying it was sort of ugly. I can agree with that. I was just trying to say it wasn't a new thing. I think when Tru-Scale went out, it left a track-shaped hole in the available product range, until the plastic-roadbed stuff came in.
You also make a good point regarding sameness. This also happens with kits. The great thing about that is that it tends to self-limit. Sooner or later somebody gets tired of the same damned Walthers/Suydam/Plasticville on every damned layout and decides to do some customizing.
The old-timers did that a lot, as you have noted.
I think what keeps people from doing more is that people want their first attempt to turn out perfectly, and if it doesn't, they give up and decide they can't learn. Well, not that way, you can't.
I don't think you understand the prophets of doom. They aren't happy unless they're convinced everything is going to Hades in a handbasket. There are several variants to this as follows:
1. The hobby is dying. Reminding the POD's that this has been forecast since before you reached your teen years (in the 50's) doesn't matter. It actually doesn't matter to the POD's whether or not the hobby actually dies as long as they can suck energy out of everyone else.
2. The hobby is overpriced. It doesn't matter that the hobby has always been "overpriced", the POD's are outraged that it's "overpriced" now and something should be done about it. None of the suggestions for fixes are workable because none of these guys understand the economics of a restricted market, which is probably just as well. If there wasn't the outrage, the POD's of this variant would have to find something else about which to be outraged.
3. Craftsmanship is dead. Apparently the craftsmanship that goes into making the tooling for a highly detailed ready to run model is not considered craftsmanship. Counter-examples won't sway them. The work of such people as Lance Mindheim, Eric Brooman, Tom Johnson (GMR 2008), Allen McClelland, our own Dave Vollmer and Doctorwayne is ignored. I don't know why. It seems to me that if you can create an overall effect that bears a striking resemblance to the real world then that's craftsmanship. No doubt there are some painters out there who long for the "golden age" when painters had to grind their own pigments to make their own paint (i.e. "scratchbuild").
There may be more, but these seem to be the Holy Trinity for the POD.
Me, I like to refer to them as "The Three Faces Of Peeve"
andrechapelon wrote:From what our pal CNJ writes, one gets the impression that Thomas emerged full blown as a phenomenon back in the late 80's/early 90's and has remained steady state ever since. That's not the case. It started relatively small and grew larger year by year until you can't go into any store that carries toys without finding Thomas in some form. We're not talking flash-in-the-pan fads like Cabbage Patch Kids, either. Thomas has demonstrated a staying power that other toys can only wish for.
From what our pal CNJ writes, one gets the impression that Thomas emerged full blown as a phenomenon back in the late 80's/early 90's and has remained steady state ever since. That's not the case. It started relatively small and grew larger year by year until you can't go into any store that carries toys without finding Thomas in some form. We're not talking flash-in-the-pan fads like Cabbage Patch Kids, either. Thomas has demonstrated a staying power that other toys can only wish for.
andrechapelon wrote:And if the numbers are dropping, why is that there is more stuff available than at any other time in history with more on the way? The manufacturers must lack any business sense whatsoever to be investing in new tooling when their market is shrinking as we speak.
And if the numbers are dropping, why is that there is more stuff available than at any other time in history with more on the way? The manufacturers must lack any business sense whatsoever to be investing in new tooling when their market is shrinking as we speak.
Does anybody besides me find it highly amusing that the guy who is taking shots on train set quaility was the same guy responsible for the New One line of Aristocraft die cast locomotives?
And I know whereof what I speak...My first HO "scale" (??!!) locomotive was an Aristocraft 2-8-0. Ah the thrill of out of round drivers, missing parts, no quaility motors, christmas sticker type lettering! Compared to those engines, Tyco was a Cadillac, and AHM a BMW.
And in spite of it all, I'm still a model railroader and rather enjoyed the entire experience. I think some people just like trains, and the hobby will be with us for some time. I'd bet there are the same number of scratchbuilders and craftsman kit builders out there as there were in the 50s. There's also a lot of guys who have great layouts thanks to todays high quaility RTR stuff who would at best have been armchair modelers back then.
Model railroading will survive, tho in a different form than in the days of the Christmas train set. Afterall we were supposed to die from TV, or was it slotcars? We seem to be dealing with computers rather well. Pretty lively corpse I'd say from the discussion on this board.
JBB
marknewton wrote: andrechapelon wrote: From what our pal CNJ writes, one gets the impression that Thomas emerged full blown as a phenomenon back in the late 80's/early 90's and has remained steady state ever since. That's not the case. It started relatively small and grew larger year by year until you can't go into any store that carries toys without finding Thomas in some form. We're not talking flash-in-the-pan fads like Cabbage Patch Kids, either. Thomas has demonstrated a staying power that other toys can only wish for.For a bloke that presents himself as the forum's official historian, CNJ displays an astonishing ignorance of Thomas, and his influence on modellers. As I've pointed out to him before, the Thomas books were first published in the UK just after WW2 , and some of the best known and talented modellers there, and in Australia, have readily acknowledged that they were inspired and influenced by the Thomas books they read as children. But he's strangely silent on this - apparently only those Golden Age Craftsmen who got Lionel trains for Xmas are worth considering.All the best,Mark.
andrechapelon wrote: From what our pal CNJ writes, one gets the impression that Thomas emerged full blown as a phenomenon back in the late 80's/early 90's and has remained steady state ever since. That's not the case. It started relatively small and grew larger year by year until you can't go into any store that carries toys without finding Thomas in some form. We're not talking flash-in-the-pan fads like Cabbage Patch Kids, either. Thomas has demonstrated a staying power that other toys can only wish for.
Well, Thomas did start outside the boundaries of North America, so it is suspect on that basis alone. . My wife and I were in a COSTCO (big box warehouse store, don't know if any are in Australia yet) and there was a rather large display of Thomas books for sale, including all of Awdry's original stories in a single collection. Most people who might buy that collection probably wouldn't have a clue as to who Awdry was but would buy the collection based solely on the fact that they were Thomas stories. I wanted to buy the collection to read to my grandchildren, but my wife threatened me with grievious bodily harm since we had already bought quite a bit of Thomas related stuff. Oh well, I'll just have to go shopping by myself. The thing that strikes me about this is that COSTCO is a high volume retailer. If the powers that be aren't reasonably confident an item will sell, it won't go on COSTCO shelves.
Personally, I'm rather pleased that Thomas has become the phenomenon he has here in North America. Unfortunately, we haven't had someone like Rev. Awdry to do for us what he did for the UK, Australia, New Zealand, et. al.
Just as an aside, last night I watched "The Titfield Thunderbolt". I just recently bought the DVD because I wanted to see if I would react the same way I did when I first saw the movie (about 1960 or so). I can't say as I reacted the same way as I did when I was a teen, but I still enjoyed the movie thoroughly. I still think the funniest scene is where Stanley Holloway and Hugh Griffith steal another ex-GWR 14xx off the turntable and run it through town, across a highway and into a tree. The movie may be a bit of fluff, but it's a thoroughly enjoyable one. I plan to watch it again with the grandkids.
Hmm, a quick search of the net revealed that COSTCO is going to start building stores in Australia. http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/costco-megastores-may-be-heading-for-australia/2007/06/01/1180205497420.html
Here are my reasons why I believe that there is no demise to model railroading
1. Tyco trains, I had one that I ran for over 7 years with no issues. Mine was the yellow and red Rock Island. Remember the cool Tyco TV commercials?
2. As long as there are new customers (like me) then there will be people to sell it. Capitalism at its best.
3. DCC and sound. I would not have gotten into the hobby again until one day I got a wild hair......and walked into a train store in Lincoln NE. I saw an O scale lionel making sounds and being controlled with a DCC remote.
4. Thomas the Train, people are fighting over this stuff to buy for their kids. So when their kids are a little older what we be the next step? Hmmm maybe a trip to the LHS?
5. Us in general. I have had two friends seen my small first time layout and they have already annouced they will be starting railroad modeling right after tax season.
6 On Ebay under toys and hobbies, Model railroading is one of the largest subcategories.
This is just my from the great plains of the noob
andrechapelon wrote: But where's the evidence that those kids continue to stay with the hobby when they grow out of the Thomas age?Well, build me a time machine and I'll go forward 30-40 years into the future and find out for you. It's the only way to find out if the hobby will still be alive and kicking.
Well, build me a time machine and I'll go forward 30-40 years into the future and find out for you. It's the only way to find out if the hobby will still be alive and kicking.
We don't need that. As has been pointed out, Thomas has been around for decades already but has had a very small impact on the number of scale model railroaders he's recruited, at least in the US.
marknewton wrote: andrechapelon wrote: From what our pal CNJ writes, one gets the impression that Thomas emerged full blown as a phenomenon back in the late 80's/early 90's and has remained steady state ever since. That's not the case. It started relatively small and grew larger year by year until you can't go into any store that carries toys without finding Thomas in some form. We're not talking flash-in-the-pan fads like Cabbage Patch Kids, either. Thomas has demonstrated a staying power that other toys can only wish for.For a bloke that presents himself as the forum's official historian, CNJ displays an astonishing ignorance of Thomas, and his influence on modellers. As I've pointed out to him before, the Thomas books were first published in the UK just after WW2 , and some of the best known and talented modellers there, and in Australia, have readily acknowledged that they were inspired and influenced by the Thomas books they read as children. But he's strangely silent on this - apparently only those Golden Age Craftsmen who got Lionel trains for Xmas are worth considering.
Quite to the contrary, Mark. I'm very much familiar with the Rev. Awdry's Railway series of books and stories. But I'm also well aware, as you apparently are not, that Awdry and Thomas were largely unknown in the United States until the appearance of Shining Time Station on PBS 20 years ago. As I've reminded you before, this is 99% an American hobbyists' forum and what goes on, or went on in the hobby, or influences it in foreign lands, is generally not applicable or relevant to the hobby's evolution over here. To date, I've seen no one able to provide even the least shred of evidence that Thomas serves as an influence to becoming a model railroader over here. It's always baseless opinion that is put forward.
In the States, lots of kids read The Little Engine That Could or Tootles The Train (or had it read to them) as small children, more-or-less in place of Awdry's books, but there is certainly nothing to suggest that it led any of them into taking up model railroading in their later years. Certainly, I've never heard it claimed.
My point regarding Thomas has always been that the American audience it appeals to is largely pre-school children who, in my day, played with such as TinkerToys....and who did not grow up to have structural engineering as a hobby, by the way! Potential model railroaders over here have, historically, almost always come from older pre-teens and teens that had classic Lionel, Flyer, Marx, et al. - even Tyco HO - of their own, or in the families' background. In the majority of cases this interest was carried well into their teen years before going "underground" for a time, only to re-surface once they became established adults. Now I realize this isn't everyone's background but I'd bet it was the formative and deciding element in about 80% of the instances for those over 45 years of age.
Today those same pre-teens that would have played with the classic tinplate train sets in years past are playing with video games, or spending hours on-line with their friends. The pre-schoolers move right into this same venue quickly as they age and never seem to look back. I'd say that the odds are if they do look back upon Thomas in their adult years it will be as nothing more than a young child's toy and certainly not as the inspiration for an adult hobby interest.
Some here have expressed in posts that playing with Lionel as teens often brought with it a certain sigma back in 70's or 80's. I would suggest that Thomas could prove a far worse stigma for younger hobbyists to bear in the future.
Midnight Railroader wrote: andrechapelon wrote: But where's the evidence that those kids continue to stay with the hobby when they grow out of the Thomas age?Well, build me a time machine and I'll go forward 30-40 years into the future and find out for you. It's the only way to find out if the hobby will still be alive and kicking. We don't need that. As has been pointed out, Thomas has been around for decades already but has had a very small impact on the number of scale model railroaders he's recruited, at least in the US.
Very true..How many kids had trains and as Adults they are no longer interested in "toy trains" but,will enjoy golf,fishing,restoring cars,hiking,coin collecting,stamp collecting,photography bicycling etc etc..After all these are "adult hobbies".
Of course comments like "relive your childhood dreams" doesn't help the image of modelers in general when there are some that think we are immature adults playing with "toy trains".
OTOH there are those that enjoy looking at "toy train setups" and ask many questions.I have also notice during the week of the County fair-the Bucyrus club is located at the fair grounds open for the week-many use "model trains and your layout" rather then "toy train set or toy train set up and many adults and kids made return trips to view the layout.
What does that mean in reality? More then likely nothing more then a passing interest or questions along with the normal pleasantries.
Not only in Australia, Mark - I saw my first Thomas book in the mid-1970s; some of the tourist railroads here in the States sold them in gift shops. I still have seven or eight, and one of my neighbors had the entire collection - and this was years before the TV show appeared. It wasn't the phenomenon it is now, but the books were definitely around.
http://mprailway.blogspot.com
"The first transition era - wood to steel!"
CNJ831,As far as Thomas and Friends/Shining Time Station our local PBS station doesn't air it and hasn't for quite some time. Some department stores no longer carry the Thomas toys.
IMHO I don't think Thomas or even the Hogwarts Express will have a lasting impact unless the child develops a interest in the hobby while enjoying the hours spent playing with those trains.
Phoebe Vet wrote: Does anyone in here actually care how many other people share their hobby?
Kind of. The more people in the hobby will keep companies alive and hopefully drive the production of new items and lines and help keep prices low. Plus it's nice to have a large group of like minded people to share ideas with.
I've only been to a couple train shows, but I saw no lack of young people getting started in the hobby. I was really surprised to see the amount of women and young girls taking an interest.
Go back 2-3 years on this forum and you will find the same arguments and discussions going on about the hobby's future. That's not changed.
But then if you go online and google "Model trains sales comeback" you get links to news that hobby sales have grown up to 40% in the last two years.
If we're all so smart with our crystal balls, why didn't the posts 3 years ago from the so-called hobby history experts predict this turn of events?
So much for our crystal ball gazing about the future of the hobby. Truth is its future will have ebb and flows, but overall I believe we can say the hobby has a long future ahead of it in some form -- like WWII vehicles, these railroad machines are just too interesting to totally disappear from the hobby landscape, especially when the model trains *do stuff*.
You seem to think that Thomas has been a phenomenon ever since the publication of Rev. Awdry's books. This hasn't been the case, not even in the UK where the whole thing started. I didn't hear about Awdry until I was in my teens (1960's) and then only because I picked up a couple of British model railway magazines that had somehow made it to a newstand in my area. The popularity of Thomas has grown over the last 60 years from a number of stories by the Rev. Awdry until it's almost an industry unto itself. It's not just books anymore for (as CNJ puts it) pre-school kids. Several major manufacturers make Thomas sets including Bachmann, Hornby and Lionel. Being full fledged electric trains, these are not really designed for the pre-school set, although indulgent parents (not to mention grandparents) will sometimes buy these sets with the excuse they are for their pre-school kids/grandkids. Thomas is a relatively recent phenomenon (last 15 years or so) in the US and we haven't yet had the time to see how things pan out. As Mark Newton pointed out, where Thomas has been around longer than here, a number of modelers have cited Thomas as one of the reasons they got into the hobby.
I don't know if my grandkids' experience with Thomas coupled with Grandpa's love of trains will translate into future model railroaders. What I am pretty sure of is that the probability dimishes quite a bit without some encouragement from me and fond memories of that funny old man who just loved trains. Whether or not the hobby dies, I think it's rather more productive to play trains with the grandkids than wail, gnash my teeth and wear a hair shirt because "the hobby is doomed, doomed I say".
"In the long run, we're all dead" - John Maynard Keynes
"Who cares? There are trains to be played with until that happens" - Yours Truly
jfugate wrote: Go back 2-3 years on this forum and you will find the same arguments and discussions going on about the hobby's future. That's not changed.But then if you go online and google "Model trains sales comeback" you get links to news that hobby sales have grown up to 40% in the last two years.If we're all so smart with our crystal balls, why didn't the posts 3 years ago from the so-called hobby history experts predict this turn of events?
Now how about passing on to posters what the real content of that Reuters article was, Joe?
In fact, it dealt specifically with a comeback for tinplate reported by Lionel, who has had a dismal sales record to the general public in recent years. There is no mention of scale model railroading in the story, nor any claim whatever of any resurgence therein.
The story goes on to point out, and those interviewed acknowledge, the rapidly increasing age of those who are purchasing "model trains." The figure provided by Kelly Shaw of Kalmbach's Classic Toy Trains, at the time the story was written, averaging 59 years (and essentially what MR's many years of published figures implied for current scale modelers). The implication here is that the "model train" hobby is composed today largely of post-middle age men and very few youths.
I don't need any crystal ball to tell that the content of this news release indicates nothing that can be regarded as particularly promising, let alone reflecting some great boom in the hobby's popularity. Quite honestly, I find it unfortunate and disappointing that you would attempt to mislead readers here that somehow it did.
Sheesh...a number of hard core modellers could have passed on, the hobby could have had a resurgence or it could have vanished forever...all within the time it has taken to build up this agonizingly long and pointless thread.
Don't you folks have anything better to talk about
CNJ831 wrote:I don't need any crystal ball to tell that the content of this news release indicates nothing that can be regarded as particularly promising, let alone reflecting some great boom in the hobby's popularity. Quite honestly, I find it unfortunate and disappointing that you would attempt to mislead readers here that somehow it did.CNJ831
So if I post a data point that doesn't agree with your opinion now I'm being sneaky and underhanded am I?
I seem to recall one somewhat questionable strategy in a debate is when you can't refute some hard data you then revert to personal attacks.
Too bad it's come to this ... you'd think we were talking about politics or religion instead of some hobby pastime.
CNJ831 wrote: jfugate wrote: Go back 2-3 years on this forum and you will find the same arguments and discussions going on about the hobby's future. That's not changed.But then if you go online and google "Model trains sales comeback" you get links to news that hobby sales have grown up to 40% in the last two years.If we're all so smart with our crystal balls, why didn't the posts 3 years ago from the so-called hobby history experts predict this turn of events?Now how about passing on to posters what the real content of that Reuters article was, Joe?In fact, it dealt specifically with a comeback for tinplate reported by Lionel, who has had a dismal sales record to the general public in recent years. There is no mention of scale model railroading in the story, nor any claim whatever of any resurgence therein.
Except, of course, for the quote of 'resurgence' by the managing editor of some obscure scale model railroading magazine:
Dick Christianson, managing editor of Model Railroader magazine, said the resurgence in trains would probably start up a whole new, younger generation of model railroaders. "One day they'll remember they had a train as a kid and say, 'Hey, I wonder if Mom has that in her attic somewhere'," he said.
Just in case you missed it:
HTH. HAND.
BlueHillsCPR wrote:Sheesh...a number of hard core modellers could have passed on, the hobby could have had a resurgence or it could have vanished forever...all within the time it has taken to build up this agonizingly long and pointless thread. Don't you folks have anything better to talk about
Ahhhh, I see by your question that you are a newcomer - welcome.
Be sure to tune in next month when we go this again - same folks, same arguments, same anectodal evidence, same conclusions.
In this rapidly changing world it's comforting to know that here is one rock we can all cling to that never changes.
IRONROOSTER wrote:Ahhhh, I see by your question that you are a newcomer - welcome. Be sure to tune in next month when we go this again - same folks, same arguments, same anectodal evidence, same conclusions. In this rapidly changing world it's comforting to know that here is one rock we can all cling to that never changes. EnjoyPaul
HAHAHA! Thanks for that Paul. The most entertaining and informative post I've read in this thread so far!
Amen, brother!!!
Dave Vollmer wrote: IRONROOSTER wrote:Ahhhh, I see by your question that you are a newcomer - welcome. Be sure to tune in next month when we go this again - same folks, same arguments, same anectodal evidence, same conclusions. In this rapidly changing world it's comforting to know that here is one rock we can all cling to that never changes. EnjoyPaul Amen, brother!!!
Paul, Dave and any other adult present -
Let's all duck over to the Barn and have a brew. Let the children of all ages argue among themselves.
Beware of insisting on the last word. You may get it.
Chuck (modeling Central Japan in September, 1964 - no matter what)
BlueHillsCPR wrote: Sheesh...a number of hard core modellers could have passed on, the hobby could have had a resurgence or it could have vanished forever...all within the time it has taken to build up this agonizingly long and pointless thread. Don't you folks have anything better to talk about
Actually, I'm retired, my wife and I are trying to get our new house together and in a short while, we'll be working on sprucing up the old place as a rental. All my model railroad stuff is packed up so it's going to be a while before I can get back to it and go onto something more productive. Despite the work involved in the move, I have occasional moments to engage in activities that might seem unproductive to the uninitiated. OK, so they ARE unproductive. I'm retired. I don't need to be productive all the time.
And you? If it's it's agonizingly long and pointless, why contribute(?) to it in the first place.
I'm kinda enjoying this agonizingly long and pointless thread, so no, at the moment I have nothing better to talk about. I'll let the others speak for themselves as to why they are similarly engaged.
NOTE to CNJ re: the supply of 59 year old men (give or take) who are presumably the very rock upon which the hobby stands. From the demographic data I have at my disposal, the supply of 59 year old men (presumably the average age of modelers) will actually continue to increase between now and 2016 and will remain relatively stable until 2022, when it will begin falling. However, it won't go to zero (barring a killer asteroid or something like that).
Incidentally, some of us old guys like to share our love of trains with our grandkids and are buying trains for them and not just for ourselves. Now that may not convert those grandkids to model railroaders, but it's still better to light one candle than to curse the darkness.
I should give it up as it won't do any good, but to quote George Patton (or at least George C. Scott playing Patton), "God forgive, me I love it so".
TTFN
Shilshole wrote: CNJ831 wrote: jfugate wrote: Go back 2-3 years on this forum and you will find the same arguments and discussions going on about the hobby's future. That's not changed.But then if you go online and google "Model trains sales comeback" you get links to news that hobby sales have grown up to 40% in the last two years.If we're all so smart with our crystal balls, why didn't the posts 3 years ago from the so-called hobby history experts predict this turn of events?Now how about passing on to posters what the real content of that Reuters article was, Joe?In fact, it dealt specifically with a comeback for tinplate reported by Lionel, who has had a dismal sales record to the general public in recent years. There is no mention of scale model railroading in the story, nor any claim whatever of any resurgence therein.Except, of course, for the quote of 'resurgence' by the managing editor of some obscure scale model railroading magazine:Dick Christianson, managing editor of Model Railroader magazine, said the resurgence in trains would probably start up a whole new, younger generation of model railroaders."One day they'll remember they had a train as a kid and say, 'Hey, I wonder if Mom has that in her attic somewhere'," he said.I don't need any crystal ball to tell that the content of this news release indicates nothing that can be regarded as particularly promising, let alone reflecting some great boom in the hobby's popularity. Quite honestly, I find it unfortunate and disappointing that you would attempt to mislead readers here that somehow it did.Just in case you missed it:Dick Christianson, managing editor of Model Railroader magazine, said the resurgence in trains would probably start up a whole new, younger generation of model railroaders."One day they'll remember they had a train as a kid and say, 'Hey, I wonder if Mom has that in her attic somewhere'," he said.HTH. HAND.
Dick Christianson, managing editor of Model Railroader magazine, said the resurgence in trains would probably start up a whole new, younger generation of model railroaders."One day they'll remember they had a train as a kid and say, 'Hey, I wonder if Mom has that in her attic somewhere'," he said.
I'm afraid that is called an opinion regarding a possible future development...not evidence of a current resurgence.
jfugate wrote: So if I post a data point that doesn't agree with your opinion now I'm being sneaky and underhanded am I?I seem to recall one somewhat questionable strategy in a debate is when you can't refute some hard data you then revert to personal attacks.Too bad it's come to this ... you'd think we were talking about politics or religion instead of some hobby pastime.
I'm sorry too, Joe, but you presented your post as fact of a resurgence in our hobby, when in reality the Reuters story clearly pertained to just one tinplate manufacturer and had nothing to do with scale model railroading's situation. You are an accomplished hobbyist and obviously no fool when it comes to assessing the meaning and presentation of things, so totally mistaking the content/meaning of that press release seems a bit hard to accept.
I have never and will never post any information here that I can not back up with some sort of published data. If others would do the same, whatever the subject might be, hobbyists here would not be continuously misinformed and in this instance there would be little question as to the state of the hobby and how it will likely evolve in the future.
Shilshole wrote:Except, of course, for the quote of 'resurgence' by the managing editor of some obscure scale model railroading magazine: Dick Christianson, managing editor of Model Railroader magazine, said the resurgence in trains would probably start up a whole new, younger generation of model railroaders."One day they'll remember they had a train as a kid and say, 'Hey, I wonder if Mom has that in her attic somewhere'," he said.
He says he hopes the resurgence in tinplate train sales will have an effect on younger people and whether they get into scale model railroading.
So do I.
jfugate wrote: But then if you go online and google "Model trains sales comeback" you get links to news that hobby sales have grown up to 40% in the last two years.
"Now, the company [Lionel] is bringing trains back to young people, and sales are up 40 percent in the last two years," the story says.
If we're going to base our judgment of the health of the hobby on the health of one manufacturer, then every time one goes out of business, we're in trouble, right?
I still haven't seen a story that says "hobby sales have grown up to 40% in the last two years," as you suggest.
And if you buy this whole line of reasoning, then weren't all those people who argued "two or three years ago"--as several of you love to point out--that the hobby wasn't in decline wrong about that? After all, something would have to have been in decline to be resurgent, right?
I am glad Lionel sales are up 40% but,how much was that 40% new modelers seeing Lionel sets run from $150.00(The cheapest I saw a starter set)-1200.00?
Naw,saying the hobby is up 40% is using the old slight of hand trick to prove a point when that 40% increase was Lionel sales and not overall hobby sales.
Still we can't overlook the WGH push and the closing of hobby shops for reasons other then retirement or passing of the owners which many overlook in their replies.
It would do well IF MR would present us with facts and figures concerning hobby growth.
CNJ831 wrote: Shilshole wrote: CNJ831 wrote:I don't need any crystal ball to tell that the content of this news release indicates nothing that can be regarded as particularly promising, let alone reflecting some great boom in the hobby's popularity. Quite honestly, I find it unfortunate and disappointing that you would attempt to mislead readers here that somehow it did.Just in case you missed it:Dick Christianson, managing editor of Model Railroader magazine, said the resurgence in trains would probably start up a whole new, younger generation of model railroaders."One day they'll remember they had a train as a kid and say, 'Hey, I wonder if Mom has that in her attic somewhere'," he said.HTH. HAND. I'm afraid that is called an opinion regarding a possible future development...not evidence of a current resurgence.
Shilshole wrote: CNJ831 wrote:I don't need any crystal ball to tell that the content of this news release indicates nothing that can be regarded as particularly promising, let alone reflecting some great boom in the hobby's popularity. Quite honestly, I find it unfortunate and disappointing that you would attempt to mislead readers here that somehow it did.Just in case you missed it:Dick Christianson, managing editor of Model Railroader magazine, said the resurgence in trains would probably start up a whole new, younger generation of model railroaders."One day they'll remember they had a train as a kid and say, 'Hey, I wonder if Mom has that in her attic somewhere'," he said.HTH. HAND.
CNJ831 wrote:I don't need any crystal ball to tell that the content of this news release indicates nothing that can be regarded as particularly promising, let alone reflecting some great boom in the hobby's popularity. Quite honestly, I find it unfortunate and disappointing that you would attempt to mislead readers here that somehow it did.
I'm afraid you are quite wrong. Mr. Christianson, in his position as managing editor of the leading scale model railroading magazine, acknowledged a resurgence. His opinion ("would probably start up a whole new, younger generation of model railroaders") regards a possible consequence of the acknowledged resurgence. Quite honestly, I find it unfortunate and disappointing that you would attempt to mislead readers with respect to what Mr. Christianson, as managing editor of the leading scale model railroading magazine and arguably much more aware of the state of the hobby than you or me, considers to be factual.
Midnight Railroader wrote: Shilshole wrote:Except, of course, for the quote of 'resurgence' by the managing editor of some obscure scale model railroading magazine: Dick Christianson, managing editor of Model Railroader magazine, said the resurgence in trains would probably start up a whole new, younger generation of model railroaders."One day they'll remember they had a train as a kid and say, 'Hey, I wonder if Mom has that in her attic somewhere'," he said.He says he hopes the resurgence in tinplate train sales will have an effect on younger people and whether they get into scale model railroading.
In the Reuters article, Mr. Christianson didn't mention 'tinplate'. Nor did he express his hopes. He offered his professional opinion, as managing editor of Model Railroader, based on the acknowledged 'resurgence in trains' (no modifier) that he has observed.[1] Although I doubt it's the case, his professional opinion may differ substantially from his hopes and personal opinion.
[1]I think it's telling that Mr. Christianson's quoted reference was to trains, in general, as opposed to 'toy' trains, 'tinplate' trains, 'scale model' trains, or even 'model railroading'. My take is that he sees a resurgence in interest in trains among the young, and that the current increased interest will translate into some percentage of the interested becoming future model railroaders, be they the young or their parents -- much like the post-WW2 boom in the hobby.
Whatever led to that bit of breathtaking illogic? Interest, reflected in sales, is indicative of hobby health. Lionel is a major player. An increase in sales by Lionel of 40% or whatever shows a substantial increase in interest. By contrast, there are hundreds of minor manufacturers in the hobby. Their closure would hardly be noticed, let alone reflect interest in toy trains as a gateway to model railroading or an interest in model railroading in general.
Decline and resurgence by which metric? If in participation, then no one has denied a decline in the number of younger model railroaders in the 80s and 90s, and no one has provided unequivocal data for participation in this decade. If in the quality and variety of products, then no one (well, except for the pathologically nostalgic) has argued against an increase in both for any period.
A few souls continue to use the reduced number of magazine subscriptions and hobby shops as their metric for evaluating hobby health. What they continue to ignore is that magazines are but one method of communication, and that other methods, such as e-mail lists, e-forums, personal web pages, and magazine websites, do a better job of communicating to today's modelers. (By 'better', I mean more immediate, more detailed, more complete, and generally more authoritative.) What they also continue to ignore is that hobby shops are but one method of retailing, and that other methods, such as on-line shops, do a better job of providing a greater variety of products at lower cost to today's modelers.
I like little trains.
Do you like little trains?
Shilshole wrote:Mr. Christianson, in his position as managing editor of the leading scale model railroading magazine, acknowledged a resurgence.
He's about as far as possible from an impartial observer.
Shilshole wrote: My take is that he sees a resurgence in interest in trains among the young, and that the current increased interest will translate into some percentage of the interested becoming future model railroaders, be they the young or their parents -- much like the post-WW2 boom in the hobby.
Your take? Okay, that's your opinion.
And you keep leaving off the modifier "probably" when you talk about his quote, preferring to say things like "the current interest will translate..." which is not what the DC quote says.
Shilshole wrote:[ If we're going to base our judgment of the health of the hobby on the health of one manufacturer, then every time one goes out of business, we're in trouble, right?Whatever led to that bit of breathtaking illogic? Interest, reflected in sales, is indicative of hobby health. Lionel is a major player. An increase in sales by Lionel of 40% or whatever shows a substantial increase in interest. By contrast, there are hundreds of minor manufacturers in the hobby. Their closure would hardly be noticed, let alone reflect interest in toy trains as a gateway to model railroading or an interest in model railroading in general.And if you buy this whole line of reasoning, then weren't all those people who argued "two or three years ago"--as several of you love to point out--that the hobby wasn't in decline wrong about that? After all, something would have to have been in decline to be resurgent, right?Decline and resurgence by which metric?
Decline and resurgence by which metric?
You can't have it both ways. A few years back, Lionel was in the dumper and just about shut down entirely.
Now it is back.
Was the hobby close to "shutting down" also when Lionel was in ill financial health? No?
Then how can you use its return to profitability as a standard to say the hobby is "resurgent"?
like I said, you can't have it both ways. Either:
(a) Lionel is the gauge by which the health of this hobby is judged (and the hobby nearly died when it did)
OR (b) Lionel is not that gauge, and you can't use it now to judge that the hobby is doing well.
Pick one.
Midnight Railroader wrote: Shilshole wrote:Mr. Christianson, in his position as managing editor of the leading scale model railroading magazine, acknowledged a resurgence. Of course, he also has a vested interest in saying such.He's about as far as possible from an impartial observer.
So, you assume that one who is in a position to have abundant knowledge and perception of the hobby's furure is also likely to be deceptive?
Shilshole wrote: My take is that he sees a resurgence in interest in trains among the young, and that the current increased interest will translate into some percentage of the interested becoming future model railroaders, be they the young or their parents -- much like the post-WW2 boom in the hobby.Your take? Okay, that's your opinion.And you keep leaving off the modifier "probably" when you talk about his quote, preferring to say things like "the current interest will translate..." which is not what the DC quote says.
Of course it's my opinion. That's what 'My take...' means, which is utterly sufficient to denote its application to all that follows in the sentence.
And if you buy this whole line of reasoning, then weren't all those people who argued "two or three years ago"--as several of you love to point out--that the hobby wasn't in decline wrong about that? After all, something would have to have been in decline to be resurgent, right? Decline and resurgence by which metric? You can't have it both ways. A few years back, Lionel was in the dumper and just about shut down entirely. Now it is back.
And if you buy this whole line of reasoning, then weren't all those people who argued "two or three years ago"--as several of you love to point out--that the hobby wasn't in decline wrong about that? After all, something would have to have been in decline to be resurgent, right? Decline and resurgence by which metric?
Indeed I can have it both ways; it's precisely why I asked you "which metric?". Would you care to respond to that?
Notice also how you are conflating 'health of the hobby' during a given period -- say, during Lionel's nadir -- with interest and potential future participation indicated by Lionel's current sales increase, about which Mr. Christianson was speculating.
Ah, now you've moved the goalposts to 'shutting down' instead of declining interest and participation. Obviously, the hobby didn't shut down during Lionel's sales valley; plenty of manufacturers remained to feed the wants and needs of those already on board, and new manufacturers surfaced to accommodate increased interest in more prototypical models. By contrast, interest and participation in the hobby did decline, at least in the US, during and after Lionel's troubles. Their lower sales figures obviously reflected a lack of interest in their product among their targeted consumers, but said nothing about those already involved in the hobby.
My own opinion as a rivet-counting/prototypical practice/craftsmen kit/kit-bashing/scratch-building model railroader is that, by the metric of quality and variety of products, the hobby has been resurgent ever since Gould/Tichy, IMWX/Red Caboose, and Intermountain kits were introduced, Detail Associates and others expanded their product lines, and information on the prototype became more accessible. I couldn't care less about the future of 'The Hobby' because it won't affect my hobby.
like I said, you can't have it both ways. Either: (a) Lionel is the gauge by which the health of this hobby is judged (and the hobby nearly died when it did) OR (b) Lionel is not that gauge, and you can't use it now to judge that the hobby is doing well. Pick one.
CNJ831 wrote:I have never and will never post any information here that I can not back up with some sort of published data.
I have never and will never post any information here that I can not back up with some sort of published data.
If others would do the same, whatever the subject might be, hobbyists here would not be continuously misinformed and in this instance there would be little question as to the state of the hobby and how it will likely evolve in the future.
CNJ831 wrote:Quite to the contrary, Mark. I'm very much familiar with the Rev. Awdry's Railway series of books and stories. But I'm also well aware, as you apparently are not, that Awdry and Thomas were largely unknown in the United States until the appearance of Shining Time Station on PBS 20 years ago.
Quite to the contrary, Mark. I'm very much familiar with the Rev. Awdry's Railway series of books and stories. But I'm also well aware, as you apparently are not, that Awdry and Thomas were largely unknown in the United States until the appearance of Shining Time Station on PBS 20 years ago.
As I've reminded you before, this is 99% an American hobbyists' forum and what goes on, or went on in the hobby, or influences it in foreign lands, is generally not applicable or relevant to the hobby's evolution over here.
To date, I've seen no one able to provide even the least shred of evidence that Thomas serves as an influence to becoming a model railroader over here. It's always baseless opinion that is put forward.
Shilshole wrote:Quite honestly, I find it unfortunate and disappointing that you would attempt to mislead readers with respect to what Mr. Christianson, as managing editor of the leading scale model railroading magazine and arguably much more aware of the state of the hobby than you or me, considers to be factual.
Quite honestly, I find it unfortunate and disappointing that you would attempt to mislead readers with respect to what Mr. Christianson, as managing editor of the leading scale model railroading magazine and arguably much more aware of the state of the hobby than you or me, considers to be factual.
marknewton wrote:One question I have is this. Why are you so determined to be the reigning Prophet of Doom? Why spend so much energy talking the hobby down? What satisfaction do you get from doing that?
And the next question would be why do so many others enable the doomsday prophets? Andre says it's cause he is retired and has nothing better to talk about...I wonder if that applies to everybody? Not that you all aren't entitled to go on endlessly arguing the imminent death of the hobby but since I assume most of you are highly skilled model railroaders, why wouldn't you spend more time posting informative, educational, inspiring threads or contributing to productive discussions in other threads in an attempt to share your wealth of knowledge with the less experienced MRR's who might come here. It would sure be sad if some kid latched onto this thread and got discouraged because of this sort of thing...that I'm told crops up over and over again about once every month, for some asinine reason.
No doubt this could result in a number of indignant inflammatory posts verging on direct personal attacks, but I put my flame suit on before I came and piddled on your bonfire. So bring it if you got to.
And the next question would be why do so many others enable the doomsday prophets? Andre says it's cause he is retired and has nothing better to talk about...I wonder if that applies to everybody?
Not that you all aren't entitled to go on endlessly arguing the imminent death of the hobby but since I assume most of you are highly skilled model railroaders, why wouldn't you spend more time posting informative, educational, inspiring threads or contributing to productive discussions in other threads in an attempt to share your wealth of knowledge with the less experienced MRR's who might come here.
It would sure be sad if some kid latched onto this thread and got discouraged because of this sort of thing...
Mark,In some ways we are teachers when we help others by answering questions or perhaps discuss short lines,yards etc base on our knowledge and in other ways we are still a student due to the ever changing railroad scene and hobby.
As far as the hobby I heard the preaching of the doom and gloom sayers for the last five decades but,never seen anything like WGH push before or closing of hobby shops for reasons other then retirement of the owners or in some cases the passing of the owner.As far as dying does any hobby really die? I think not.I think they toddle on after all slot car racing is still with us as is fly tying,kite flying, butterfly collecting and other lessor known hobbies..On the other hand I haven't seen kids shot marbles in years nor have I seen that many "sand lot" baseball games.
As far as Thomas,The Hogwarts Express,The Polar Express,Train Sim etc I think they may play a small part in getting kids(and adults) interested in the hobby but,I don't think model railroading will ever be as popular as it once was..
In all honesty I excpect the doom and gloom sayers to preach on in the coming decades.
To throw my own anecdotal and highly subjective observation into this discussion, I was shocked at the turnout for the Greenberg show here in NJ after Thanksgiving. It was packed - I mean sardine can, NYC Subway at rush hour kind of packed - to the point that I wasn't enjoying myself and wanted to get the heck out of there. I noticed a definite up-tic in the attendance last year, but this year was unprecedented. There seemed to be an equal ratio of old-timers to parents with young kids, and there may have been a lot of window shopping going on, but at least people were thinking about it. I don't know if the recent Polar Express film is responsible for the increased interest, but something is happening. I wasn't aware of any greater advertising for the show than usual.
The most heartening sight that day was that of a group of boys probably in the 5-6 year age range laying on the floor in front of the MTH display mesmerized by a T1 and several other locos going in loops. I think a bomb could have dropped without their notice. It sure looked to me like there is another generation to carry the torch.
Nelson
Ex-Southern 385 Being Hoisted
BRAKIE wrote:In all honesty I expect the doom and gloom sayers to preach on in the coming decades.
I agree. I just got back into the hobby about 2 years ago after a hiatus of around 25 years. Back then it seemed to me (my opinion) that model railroading was a dying thing then. As a young pup at the time it seemed I was involving myself in a dying hobby, & once the folks that were a good bit older at that time passed on (the ones that knew what was what, & kept the flame going at the time) that things would go galley west once they did. But getting back into things at the age of 39, & with the internet being a completely new medium that wasn't thought of then, I was truly amazed at the amount of young folk that have taken up the hobby. A good amount of them that wasn't even born when I was into things, & a few of them know more about model railroading then I ever did.
Things will keep going just as always IMO. As a musicologist (somewhat) specializing in classic country & oldies, I can relate. Bluegrass music is my fave music probably, & recall reading about 20 years ago about bluegrass music in Japan. There are a good amount of folk over there that love & play the music, & at the time, they were worried that once the father of bluegrass music, Bill Monroe, passed on, the music interest, etc, would die with him. (the Japanese consider father figures as sacred from what I understand-& a stabilizing figure if you will.) Bill passed on in 1996, & bluegrass music is as stronger than ever. (Ralph Stanley actually performed on the TONIGHT SHOW a few years ago!) Granted, 90% of the music coming out now is too polished & clean for my tastes, but it's still going strong.
Digressing a bit maybe, but a similar interest in what some consider "old time" but still going stronger than ever-& will continue to do so (IMO)
SteamFreak wrote:To throw my own anecdotal and highly subjective observation into this discussion, I was shocked at the turnout for the Greenberg show here in NJ after Thanksgiving. It was packed - I mean sardine can, NYC Subway at rush hour kind of packed - to the point that I wasn't enjoying myself and wanted to get the heck out of there.The most heartening sight that day was that of a group of boys probably in the 5-6 year age range laying on the floor in front of the MTH display mesmerized by a T1 and several other locos going in loops. I think a bomb could have dropped without their notice. It sure looked to me like there is another generation to carry the torch.
That's been my experience too at the WGH shows -- they're packed, with youngsters under 12. My NMRA sources tell me their studies show most people in the hobby today got interested in it from about the ages of 8-12.
Of course our resident all-knowing hobby history expert will tell us that most of these kids won't ever look at another train again, and that this is not evidence of anything. WGH is catering to 45-59 year olds, don't you know? If those of us who have attended these WGH shows would just go look around for the real true hard evidence, we'd find all the 45-59 year olds that the WGH shows are reaching.
marknewton wrote:[q CNJ831 wrote: Quite to the contrary, Mark. I'm very much familiar with the Rev. Awdry's Railway series of books and stories. But I'm also well aware, as you apparently are not, that Awdry and Thomas were largely unknown in the United States until the appearance of Shining Time Station on PBS 20 years ago.That claim has been contradicted by a number of others on this thread, so I'll take it with a grain of salt. As I've reminded you before, this is 99% an American hobbyists' forum and what goes on, or went on in the hobby, or influences it in foreign lands, is generally not applicable or relevant to the hobby's evolution over here.Okay, so you reckon US model railroading exists in a vacuum. When the hobby has died there, as you claim it inevitably must, those of us in "foreign lands" will spare a thought for you, in between running trains. To date, I've seen no one able to provide even the least shred of evidence that Thomas serves as an influence to becoming a model railroader over here. It's always baseless opinion that is put forward.You, OTOH, have evidence that it doesn't? Some here have expressed in posts that playing with Lionel as teens often brought with it a certain sigma back in 70's or 80's. I would suggest that Thomas could prove a far worse stigma for younger hobbyists to bear in the future.What younger hobbyists in the future? There aren't going to be any - the hobby is dying, remember?
CNJ831 wrote: Quite to the contrary, Mark. I'm very much familiar with the Rev. Awdry's Railway series of books and stories. But I'm also well aware, as you apparently are not, that Awdry and Thomas were largely unknown in the United States until the appearance of Shining Time Station on PBS 20 years ago.
Mark, as I've pointed out to you repeatedly, your location half a world away puts you at a decided disadvantage when it comes to knowing and undertanding how model railroading has evolved in America.
I expect that reading Awbry's Railway series is quite different and perhaps more influential than from the manner in which we see them depicted over here on TV. Thomas in America is a goggly-eyed, totally fantasy character, in the same sense as Jay Jay the Jet Plane, or Wags (the Wiggles' dog, with whom you might be more familiar). Thomas does not reflect either the real world or even real trains, in the minds of its U.S. general audience.
The marketing of Thomas in America is clearly aimed at pre-schoolers, around 99% of Thomas items being targeted at those 5 and under. Thomas train items are mainly wooden push, wind-up, or battery-powered, toys. Thomas electric trains in O and HO amount to only a minute fraction of the Thomas market and rarely part of Thomas products ads from major toy retailers.
On the other hand, American tinplate trains were replicas of real American trains that, in the past, dominated transportation here. Lionel (as well as Flyer, Marx, et al.), J.L.Cowen indicated, was targeted at boys 8-12 and their fathers. Kids of that age have begun dreaming of adulthood and controlling their own lives. Playing with Lionel gave boys control over an imaginary adult world of powerful locomotives and industries. To their fathers was provided an avenue for bonding with his growing child, a link to his own childhood and to become temporarily subservient to the child. Thomas offers none of this and giving a 10-12 year old a Thomas set for Christmas today would more likely embarrass him then send him on the path to becoming a model railroader.
In the news release that Joe F. cited, Lionel was quick to associate its recent growth to the popularity of The Polar Express and the Hogwart's (Harry Potter series) train. Both situations involve real, recognizable, steam trains. Even though Lionel has marketed Thomas sets, please note that no mention is made of them assisting in Lionel's improving sales figures.
Quite some time ago, in a thread similar to this one, the question was posed who among us got their start in the hobby through Thomas? There was but a single positive response. Now this forum claims something like 45,000 members, perhaps about a quarter of all the actual HO hobbyists in America. Even if we consider that no more than 5% ever actually post, a positive response from just one person clearly serves to demonstrate that, after 20 years in the U.S. public's eye, there has been little influence to Thomas in our hobby. I'm afraid that the idea Thomas has become a substantial factor in recruiting HO hobbyists in America is simply because many of today's greener model railroaders, through a very bias view, feel anything that depicts a train in any fashion will somehow result in an individual becoming a model railroader. Sadly, the facts suggest otherwise.
jfugate wrote: SteamFreak wrote:To throw my own anecdotal and highly subjective observation into this discussion, I was shocked at the turnout for the Greenberg show here in NJ after Thanksgiving. It was packed - I mean sardine can, NYC Subway at rush hour kind of packed - to the point that I wasn't enjoying myself and wanted to get the heck out of there.The most heartening sight that day was that of a group of boys probably in the 5-6 year age range laying on the floor in front of the MTH display mesmerized by a T1 and several other locos going in loops. I think a bomb could have dropped without their notice. It sure looked to me like there is another generation to carry the torch. That's been my experience too at the WGH shows -- they're packed, with youngsters under 12. My NMRA sources tell me their studies show most people in the hobby today got interested in it from about the ages of 8-12.Of course our resident all-knowing hobby history expert will tell us that most of these kids won't ever look at another train again, and that this is not evidence of anything. WGH is catering to 45-59 year olds, don't you know? If those of us who have attended these WGH shows would just go look around for the real true hard evidence, we'd find all the 45-59 year olds that the WGH shows are reaching.
Joe,I have attended many shows as a part time dealer and of late as a attendee and I have seen just the opposite and as anybody can tell you that goes to more then one or two shows a year you will see far more middle age adults then kids.So please refrain from insulting our intelligence..
The cold hard facts remain kids are more interested in rock 'em,sock 'em,shoot 'em up blow 'em up video games than running toy choo-choos in endless loops..And as my youngest grandson once said "What's so exciting playing with toy trains papaw?"
BRAKIE wrote: jfugate wrote:That's been my experience too at the WGH shows -- they're packed, with youngsters under 12. My NMRA sources tell me their studies show most people in the hobby today got interested in it from about the ages of 8-12.Joe,I have attended many shows as a part time dealer and of late as a attendee and I have seen just the opposite and as anybody can tell you that goes to more then one or two shows a year you will see far more middle age adults then kids.So please refrain from insulting our intelligence..
jfugate wrote:That's been my experience too at the WGH shows -- they're packed, with youngsters under 12. My NMRA sources tell me their studies show most people in the hobby today got interested in it from about the ages of 8-12.
Okay, Larry ... you win. Your experiences are obviously are magically prophetic of the hobby's future, while my experiences simply insult people's intelligence.
marknewton wrote: Shilshole wrote:Quite honestly, I find it unfortunate and disappointing that you would attempt to mislead readers with respect to what Mr. Christianson, as managing editor of the leading scale model railroading magazine and arguably much more aware of the state of the hobby than you or me, considers to be factual.Be fair, Andre
I'm not Andre. Can't you blokes keep your pollyannas straight?
Mr. Christianson is a mere industry professional. He hasn't got the knowledge, credibility or gravitas of our very own Visting Professor of MR History...
I sincerely apologize to both Mr. Christianson and Mr. Dr. Visiting Professor for any confusion I may have created regarding the relative veracity associated with their respective positions.
CNJ831 wrote:In the news release that Joe F. cited, Lionel was quick to associate its recent growth to the popularity of The Polar Express and the Hogwart's (Harry Potter series) train.
Whoopsie! Bad assumption. The date of the article was 3 March 2007. Lionel released Hogwart's only in the last few months of 2007, so it's pretty near impossible in the real world for Lionel to be quick to associate anything with Hogwart's.
Just a hunch, but Lionel's self-acknowledged change in marketing strategy (focused adverts, displays, retail partnerships, participation in WGH -- all mentioned in the article) and reorganization since filing for bankruptcy in 2004 might have a slight bit to do with increased sales.
Even though Lionel has marketed Thomas sets, please note that no mention is made of them assisting in Lionel's improving sales figures
Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. The article was a fluff marketing piece, not a quarterly financial report. It offered no breakdown of sales figures according to Lionel product line. The only relevant number provided by the Reuters reporter was "sales are up 40 percent in the last two years."
Shilshole wrote:[ CNJ831 wrote:In the news release that Joe F. cited, Lionel was quick to associate its recent growth to the popularity of The Polar Express and the Hogwart's (Harry Potter series) train.Whoopsie! Bad assumption. The date of the article was 3 March 2007. Lionel released Hogwart's only in the last few months of 2007, so it's pretty near impossible in the real world for Lionel to be quick to associate anything with Hogwart's.Just a hunch, but Lionel's self-acknowledged change in marketing strategy (focused adverts, displays, retail partnerships, participation in WGH -- all mentioned in the article) and reorganization since filing for bankruptcy in 2004 might have a slight bit to do with increased sales. Even though Lionel has marketed Thomas sets, please note that no mention is made of them assisting in Lionel's improving sales figuresAbsence of evidence is not evidence of absence. The article was a fluff marketing piece, not a quarterly financial report. It offered no breakdown of sales figures according to Lionel product line. The only relevant number provided by the Reuters reporter was "sales are up 40 percent in the last two years."
I'm can only go by what the press release actually says and that is they credit the upswing in sales to their product's association with the Potter series and The Polar Express. I'm sure if Thomas were creating runaway sale for them, they unquestionably would are mentioned it. When a corporation issues a press release of this nature, they will cite anything that tends to backup their premise. So, absence of Thomas mention is indeed evidence of absence of Thomas sales for Lionel.
CNJ831 wrote:Mark, as I've pointed out to you repeatedly, your location half a world away puts you at a decided disadvantage when it comes to knowing and undertanding how model railroading has evolved in America.
American tinplate trains were replicas of real American trains that, in the past, dominated transportation here....
CNJ831 wrote: Shilshole wrote:[ CNJ831 wrote:In the news release that Joe F. cited, Lionel was quick to associate its recent growth to the popularity of The Polar Express and the Hogwart's (Harry Potter series) train.Whoopsie! Bad assumption. The date of the article was 3 March 2007. Lionel released Hogwart's only in the last few months of 2007, so it's pretty near impossible in the real world for Lionel to be quick to associate anything with Hogwart's.Just a hunch, but Lionel's self-acknowledged change in marketing strategy (focused adverts, displays, retail partnerships, participation in WGH -- all mentioned in the article) and reorganization since filing for bankruptcy in 2004 might have a slight bit to do with increased sales. Even though Lionel has marketed Thomas sets, please note that no mention is made of them assisting in Lionel's improving sales figuresAbsence of evidence is not evidence of absence. The article was a fluff marketing piece, not a quarterly financial report. It offered no breakdown of sales figures according to Lionel product line. The only relevant number provided by the Reuters reporter was "sales are up 40 percent in the last two years." I'm can only go by what the press release actually says and that is they credit the upswing in sales to their product's association with the Potter series and The Polar Express.
I'm can only go by what the press release actually says and that is they credit the upswing in sales to their product's association with the Potter series and The Polar Express.
No, they don't. Think for a minute. As of the article's dateline, 3 March 2007, Lionel hadn't delivered Hogwart's to distributors, let alone released it for retail sales. Without sales of Hogwart's, there are no sales figures to associate with Hogwart's. This is really simple stuff, John.
Further, this is not a press release. It's a puff piece assembled by a Reuters reporter from several sources (do you really think Lionel would quote MTH in a Lionel press release?). It's your interpretation of the piece that's faulty, not Lionel's or the reporter's verbage.
So, absence of Thomas mention is indeed evidence of absence of Thomas sales for Lionel.
Nope. Never has been and never will be. Especially in a puff piece serving as feel-good seasonal filler for news outlets. You're reading waaay beyond the article's content. Make your case, if you have one, with real Thomas data or real Lionel sales figures, not wishful thinking.
marknewton wrote:American tinplate trains were replicas of real American trains that, in the past, dominated transportation here....Yeah, real American trains - like the giraffe car and the exploding boxcar. What were their AAR classifications again, I seem to have forgotten?
Giraffe car: RB, converted from an RS having roof bunkers -- prolly Canadian. Or how about LC? Exploding boxcar: XC4? XTNT? "Boom car" won't work...
jfugate wrote: BRAKIE wrote: jfugate wrote:That's been my experience too at the WGH shows -- they're packed, with youngsters under 12. My NMRA sources tell me their studies show most people in the hobby today got interested in it from about the ages of 8-12.Joe,I have attended many shows as a part time dealer and of late as a attendee and I have seen just the opposite and as anybody can tell you that goes to more then one or two shows a year you will see far more middle age adults then kids.So please refrain from insulting our intelligence..Okay, Larry ... you win. Your experiences are obviously are magically prophetic of the hobby's future, while my experiences simply insult people's intelligence.
If I didn't know better, I'd say there are some old-timers here who want the hobby to die with them.
SteamFreak wrote: jfugate wrote: BRAKIE wrote: jfugate wrote:That's been my experience too at the WGH shows -- they're packed, with youngsters under 12. My NMRA sources tell me their studies show most people in the hobby today got interested in it from about the ages of 8-12. Joe,I have attended many shows as a part time dealer and of late as a attendee and I have seen just the opposite and as anybody can tell you that goes to more then one or two shows a year you will see far more middle age adults then kids.So please refrain from insulting our intelligence..Okay, Larry ... you win. Your experiences are obviously are magically prophetic of the hobby's future, while my experiences simply insult people's intelligence.If I didn't know better, I'd say there are some old-timers here who want the hobby to die with them.
jfugate wrote: BRAKIE wrote: jfugate wrote:That's been my experience too at the WGH shows -- they're packed, with youngsters under 12. My NMRA sources tell me their studies show most people in the hobby today got interested in it from about the ages of 8-12. Joe,I have attended many shows as a part time dealer and of late as a attendee and I have seen just the opposite and as anybody can tell you that goes to more then one or two shows a year you will see far more middle age adults then kids.So please refrain from insulting our intelligence..Okay, Larry ... you win. Your experiences are obviously are magically prophetic of the hobby's future, while my experiences simply insult people's intelligence.
BRAKIE wrote: jfugate wrote:That's been my experience too at the WGH shows -- they're packed, with youngsters under 12. My NMRA sources tell me their studies show most people in the hobby today got interested in it from about the ages of 8-12. Joe,I have attended many shows as a part time dealer and of late as a attendee and I have seen just the opposite and as anybody can tell you that goes to more then one or two shows a year you will see far more middle age adults then kids.So please refrain from insulting our intelligence..
I just want a factual, realistic representation of where the hobby stands.
Problem is, people who are certain everything is fine keep giving us ancedotal evidence or getting angry or using one tinplate manufacturer's sales increases as a gauge of the whole hobby's health, which does not help answer the question.
I'd like to know how many people are scale model railroaders today.
Okay, let's give it a rest. When we start with the insults it means time's up.
Next thing we'll be calling each other outside.
-Crandell