CNJ831 wrote:Sorry, Dancer, but those 1979 Blue Box Athearns were, at the time, the hobby standard against which all other products were measured, warts and all. They were the top-of-the-line production item, as good as it got over the counter. If you wanted better, you had to rework them yourself.
justincase65 wrote: gandy dancer wrote: jusincase65 wrote:With decoders in each car and a solinoid switch that works each coupler it could be done. What I don't understand is why one would want that, very unprototypical.Secondly, what do you mean unprototypical? Like using a bamboo skewer is a protypical way of uncoupling cars?
gandy dancer wrote: jusincase65 wrote:With decoders in each car and a solinoid switch that works each coupler it could be done. What I don't understand is why one would want that, very unprototypical.
jusincase65 wrote:With decoders in each car and a solinoid switch that works each coupler it could be done.
In fact, our automatic coupling when we press cars up against each other isn't too prototypical either. In real life a person has to manually go and open the coupler (more like the Lionel or Sargents brand couplers) and connect the brake hose.
Tom Curtin wrote: Since my day job is teaching strategy to executives, I offer some observations on #1 and #2.Regarding #1, I think there is a lot of concern about decreasing population of modelers. I haven't seen any credible, professionally obtained data showing the age distribution of the model railroading community today compared to, say, 30 years ago. However, I see some evidence suggesting that the bigwigs in the hobby are concerned about this. Perhaps the biggest piece of evidence is Model Railroader's ongoing "WGH" campaign which must be costing Kalmbach significant $$$ and is, in my opinion, unquestionably being done because they desperately see a need to attract some new blood.
Since my day job is teaching strategy to executives, I offer some observations on #1 and #2.
Regarding #1, I think there is a lot of concern about decreasing population of modelers. I haven't seen any credible, professionally obtained data showing the age distribution of the model railroading community today compared to, say, 30 years ago. However, I see some evidence suggesting that the bigwigs in the hobby are concerned about this. Perhaps the biggest piece of evidence is Model Railroader's ongoing "WGH" campaign which must be costing Kalmbach significant $$$ and is, in my opinion, unquestionably being done because they desperately see a need to attract some new blood.
Tom, WGH is by no means simply MR's/Kalmbach's project. The five year WGH campaign is sponsored by members of the HMA...to the initial tune of over a million contributed dollars and I'm not sure they haven't coughed up more, recently. Kalmbach is only a minor player in the grand scheme of this effort to drum up new blood. However, when you look at their actual stated goals, foremost isn't to encourage younger people into the hobby. To the contrary, their stated target is men 45 to 64...the potential biggest spenders. Never in past hobby history has the industry ever felt its future so threatened that it even gave a thought to such a program as WGH. That says a lot right there.
CNJ831
Looking ahead over the next 25 years, I think the following will happen:
DCC will become standard probably with upgraded standards. It will be cheaper, easier, and a basic board will come installed on locomotives. Upgrade plugins with better/more controls and sound will be available. The throttle will be wireless either to the dcc base station or to the board in the locomotive, users option.
Computer interface and programs will be available to enable full operations with the computer taking all the roles that humans aren't available for - running trains, dispatching, etc. as needed.
RTR will continue to surge, but towards the end of 25 years will decline a little due to high cost of labor overseas.
On demand kits/RTR will be available so that you can have the model of your choice. The technology will still be somewhat expensive limiting it's market. This will change going further ahead.
Lionel will be making better giraffe cars.
Todays' 30 year olds will sit around saying the hobby's not like it used to be. These young people don't know what it was like in the good ol days.
Enjoy
Paul
I just checked my crystal ball. You wouldn't believe how things have changed twenty years from now. Here are a few highlights.
1. People are complaining about the price of new equipment.
2. Older modelers are talking about how things were better twenty years ago.
3. Some folks are talking about how the hobby is declining.
4. Others are discussing what the future of the hobby is.
Being realistic, the level of detail and smoothness of operation will go up, track will be made better so there are fewer derailments, DCC will be less expensive as it gets more common, as will sound, the quality of sound systems will be better, there will be more readily available scenery products hopefully at lower prices, and Horizon will discontinue all Athearn kits.
Now for a little more fun, everything will have in-duh-vidual self-sustaining power supplies, operation will be controlled by a thinking cap with a little blinking light on top, modern trains will be magnetically levitated, P2K will be the Tyco of the railroad world while Model Power will dominate with their amazing quality and detail, engines and cars will have artificial intelligence so they know not to derail, 75% of the world population will be model railroaders, so prices will be reduced significantly ($12 for a PCM Big Boy), and so many other things.
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Dave Vollmer wrote: In 2032, a new model railroad control system (an over-the-air control and power system) called SkyNet will become self-aware. It will then launch a nuclear strike against humankind, ushering in the rise of the machines and a long, devistating war for the survival of humanity. The resistance will be led by a model railroader named John Conner."Hasta la vista, baby!"
In 2032, a new model railroad control system (an over-the-air control and power system) called SkyNet will become self-aware. It will then launch a nuclear strike against humankind, ushering in the rise of the machines and a long, devistating war for the survival of humanity. The resistance will be led by a model railroader named John Conner.
"Hasta la vista, baby!"
No, this will be more like one of those "Benevolent Dictatorships" some of us learned about in high school. RailNet will impose a surcharge on something like your electric bill, and use it to fund a program in which Internet model dealers would receive orders to send trains out to non-modellers. Everyone would start getting trains delivered, and suddenly the whole planet would be seething with layouts in every scale. The problems of the Middle East would be forgotten as the Isrealis and Hamas would compete for the best pictures on Weekend Photo Fun, which might have to be shifted to midweek to avoid various Sabbaths and so forth. China would have to out-source Model Railroad production to the United States to keep up with production demands. Global Warming fears would diminish as people forsake their cars for train travel. Apple will come out with the iTrain.
Seriously? Well, I see more and better engine-cams. After building a layout, modellers will run their trains from another room, watching the scenery through video cameras in front of the engine.
It takes an iron man to play with a toy iron horse.
Classic Dave, when I got to "Skynet" I knew were you were going.
The responses to the initial question here seem to fit onto the following categories:
1. Demographics & population size of the future modeling community.
2. Economics (specifically, expense) of pursuing the hobby
3. Technology options we might see.
I am going to skip #3, since I am really not "into" DCC and those advanced things (which is somewhat surprising in view of my technological background! My biggest investment in model electronics is: I love highway crossing flashers)
One category of modeler that is disappearing for sure is the true craftsman. I see a large trend away from kits of any kind, into "open up the box and put the contents in place." Here's one dramatic example: Who'd have thunk 20 years ago that you'd see the variety of pre-built plastic structures that are around today?
Regarding #2, yes, everything's getting more expensive. One reason is that the modeling community is getting more demanding about the fine points of fidelity of everything they see. That fidelity costs ya. The other reason is the big shift in production strategies, to 1) larger variety, and 2) smaller run sizes. Everyone must understand that those two parameters have to go together. Strategists have invented the term "mass customization" to describe this phenomenon. Advances in design and manufacturing technology, plus the ability to off-shore production, are making this possible; but it inexorably drives prices up. Yes, I like to buy American too --- I drive a Buick --- but I'm afraid the off-shoring is a necessary piece of this strategic puzzle.
Greg H. wrote: IIRC didn't the old GE Astrac system run on 24 volt AC? I think I remember a comment by Allen McClelland where he said that the higher voltage made contact problems pretty rare, but if you forgot and laid put your bare hand on the track (it was constant voltage) you'd know it!GeorgeI don't know.I thought the article was talking about 24 V DC but DC could cause some safety issues. I can see where 24 V AC could be better suited to such an application, and as far as safety is concerned would probably be better I have never been bitten by 24 V AC, but, I have been by 120 V AC, when I was taking a plug from a socket and my fingers had slipped a little to far forward and bridged the gap - not something I would want to do again but it was survivable for the amount of time it took to remind me to be more careful - I imagine that 24 V AC would be more so, just a good bite to remind you to be careful.I would think that directional control is probably a PITA with AC as compared with DC.
IIRC didn't the old GE Astrac system run on 24 volt AC? I think I remember a comment by Allen McClelland where he said that the higher voltage made contact problems pretty rare, but if you forgot and laid put your bare hand on the track (it was constant voltage) you'd know it!George
IIRC didn't the old GE Astrac system run on 24 volt AC? I think I remember a comment by Allen McClelland where he said that the higher voltage made contact problems pretty rare, but if you forgot and laid put your bare hand on the track (it was constant voltage) you'd know it!
George
I don't know.
I thought the article was talking about 24 V DC but DC could cause some safety issues. I can see where 24 V AC could be better suited to such an application, and as far as safety is concerned would probably be better
I have never been bitten by 24 V AC, but, I have been by 120 V AC, when I was taking a plug from a socket and my fingers had slipped a little to far forward and bridged the gap - not something I would want to do again but it was survivable for the amount of time it took to remind me to be more careful - I imagine that 24 V AC would be more so, just a good bite to remind you to be careful.
I would think that directional control is probably a PITA with AC as compared with DC.
Greg
I couldn't swear it was AC, but I'm sure about the 24 volts. It was quite a while ago that I saw it and haven't been able to find it since.
"And the sons of Pullman porters and the sons of engineers ride their father's magic carpet made of steel..."
Gandy Dancer wrote: Any economic factor I can come up with results in cheaper models of higher quality. I think the real issue is no one is willing to settle for comparable products. Everyone wants to compare the new top quality stuff to the old run of the mill stuff. That is just not a reasonible comparison. Holding one's model expectations constant, the prices have come down through the years.
Any economic factor I can come up with results in cheaper models of higher quality. I think the real issue is no one is willing to settle for comparable products. Everyone wants to compare the new top quality stuff to the old run of the mill stuff. That is just not a reasonible comparison. Holding one's model expectations constant, the prices have come down through the years.
Sorry, Dancer, but those 1979 Blue Box Athearns were, at the time, the hobby standard against which all other products were measured, warts and all. They were the top-of-the-line production item, as good as it got over the counter. If you wanted better, you had to rework them yourself.
Now were they comparable in fidelity, detail and electrical technology to today's top-of-the-line? Of course not! Who could ever expect them to be? Time doesn't stand still. There are little things like progress and the advance of technology that intervene. Just look at the late 1970's pocket calculator vs. today's home computers. Hasn't there been a bit of an advancement there, or for any other of today's products you'd care to name? Like it or not, you have to compare the top-of-the-line, mass produced items of each period against one another in price to fairly judge the situation.
And since I go back way before 1979, I can tell you with considerable assurance that the hobby, overall, is currently the most expensive it has ever been since the mid to late 1950's. The real bargin years in model railroading were between the late 1960's and the early 1980's, when pricing remained almost flat over that long period. Judging by what I seen in the past decade, you're never likely to see that happen again!
Some will scratchbuild
Some will buy RTR
Some will run holographic layouts driven by a laser ball on the ceiling and laptop
And others will complain it is to hard to scratch build, expensive to by RTR and think it is too complicated to learn how to link the laser ball and the laptop.
And Bergie's grandson will be trying to catch the troll. . .
Joe
Gandy Dancer wrote: justincase65 wrote:I don't think DCC can handle that many decoders at a time on a layout particularly the larger layouts with hundreds of cars to program. ???? Where did you get an idea like that???? Current DCC systems can handle 9999 decoder addresses. jusincase65 wrote:With decoders in each car and a solinoid switch that works each coupler it could be done. What I don't understand is why one would want that, very unprototypical.
justincase65 wrote:I don't think DCC can handle that many decoders at a time on a layout particularly the larger layouts with hundreds of cars to program.
I don't have a DCC system yet and wasn't aware that they could handle that many decoders. Thanks for the insight.
Secondly, what do you mean unprototypical? Like using a bamboo skewer is a protypical way of uncoupling cars?
loathar wrote:I hope it doesn't advance too much more. I get tired of things getting so expensive that I can't afford them anymore.
A most simple example - in 1979 an Athearn Blue Box GP9 cost me $18 street price. The detail was terrible with a way wide hood and it sucked 2.5 amps on start up. Now an Athearn RTR RS-3 retails for $90 with a street price of about $50. Lets see, as I recall minimum wage was $2.10 back then, so it took me 8.5 hours of work to make enough money for the loco. Now depending on which state one lives the minimum wage is an average of $7. So it now it only takes 7.1 hours of work to earn a similar Athearn locomotive. And that is a much better locomotive. Better looking, better running, and consumes much less power.
And to stay on topic, I believe that will be the trend into the future. There will be much better and more variation of models produced. The high end models will will continue to raise the bar on what is expected. People unwilling to be satisfied with what they used to have will gripe because things are getting too expensive, but those will be the same people that blast the old things like brass track, locos without can motors & fly wheels, DC, and other things that are being put down today. I am certain there are model railroaders out there that are more satisfied with, have more fun, and enjoy their "toy train" layouts much more than some of those with all the most modern, top of the line, and trendy things available in the hobby today.
I agree 100% sadly though things will change, manufacturers have a knack of finding ways to plunder your wallet, IMO advancement in technology is not always a good thing.
Modeling the Rio Grande Southern First District circa 1938-1946 in HOn3.
oleirish wrote: I think It will be radio control even in the "N" scale.Think about It??no wires under the lay out,no block controls,ECT,ECT.radio is getting smaller everyday!It is allredy used in "G" scale,and some "O" scale,"HO" is close allso at the present.JIM
I think It will be radio control even in the "N" scale.Think about It??no wires under the lay out,no block controls,ECT,ECT.radio is getting smaller everyday!It is allredy used in "G" scale,and some "O" scale,"HO" is close allso at the present.
JIM
How would the radio control work? You would need a some very nice electronics in the engines. The R/C hobby cars are far more pricy when it comes to the electronics and radio controlled systems. Would the engines run on a battery then? Just wondering, I have not seen any trains yet with R/C and wondered if it was the same as R/C cars.
oleirish wrote:I think It will be radio control even in the "N" scale.Think about It??no wires under the lay out,no block controls,ECT,ECT.radio is getting smaller everyday!It is allredy used in "G" scale,and some "O" scale,"HO" is close allso at the present.JIM
Great minds must think alike, I model Southern Pacific in N scale and I agree that this is where the future lies, in fact I stated today at our open house that I don't believe DCC will be around much in a couple of years, but Radio Control with battery powered locos will be all the rage, if track voltage is involved, it will only be to keep batteries charged.
Teditor
Greg H. wrote: I ran into an artical in an older book ( printed in the eartly 70's or so ), where the author made a fairly good argument, for doubling the voltage ( and dropping the amps by half ), that the trains run at. Since then keep seeing I seeing it show up from time to time and it's still a fairly good argument, but time will tell.
I ran into an artical in an older book ( printed in the eartly 70's or so ), where the author made a fairly good argument, for doubling the voltage ( and dropping the amps by half ), that the trains run at.
Since then keep seeing I seeing it show up from time to time and it's still a fairly good argument, but time will tell.
A couple of trends:
1. Technology will make things cheaper, better, and faster. Both in model production and electronics.
2. Any piece of equipment that has a following will be offered commercially, albeit in a small run.
3. Modelers will be more attuned to subtle differences in prototypes. The differences between Frisco's Alco Russian Decapods and Frisco's Baldwin Russian Decapods will be significant - as will be the difference between "in service" and "preserved" variations.
4. We'll see layouts based on prototypes that are not reasonable to model today, like a substantial layout based on the South Shore Line (a 20 car roster would be a significant part of the importer's run of brass cars - and what about all those catenary towers!).
5. We'll see more "unusual" layout concepts. Someone will model a railroad museum. Someone will model a "retro" layout with 1950's and 1960's trains.
6. We'll see more "what if" layout themes. Expect to have a good idea of what a PRR 4-8-4 would have looked like - and someone to build a live steam model. Also expect to see a layout based on mergers happening differently.
7. There still will be LHS, but they will either be one man shows or big stores. However, most of the basic hobby supplies (wood, paint, plastic stock) would be available retail.
8. The "community" of people with similar interests would be worldwide.
9. There still will be lots of straight DC layouts and "plywood central" layouts in 3-rail O.
justincase65 wrote: Varnet wrote:I'm looking forward to having digital couplers on everything some day. It will be fun to switch/shunt almost completely hands free! This is what I'm waiting for. I've thought about it a lot in fact. With decoders in each car and a solinoid switch that works each coupler it could be done. Unfornutaely, I don't think DCC can handle that many decoders at a time on a layout particularly the larger layouts with hundreds of cars to program.
Varnet wrote:I'm looking forward to having digital couplers on everything some day. It will be fun to switch/shunt almost completely hands free!
This is what I'm waiting for. I've thought about it a lot in fact. With decoders in each car and a solinoid switch that works each coupler it could be done. Unfornutaely, I don't think DCC can handle that many decoders at a time on a layout particularly the larger layouts with hundreds of cars to program.
My DCS 200 can handle 100-120 seperate decoders at once.
Average train length 15 cars, not a problem.
I think uncouplers already are coming onto the market, they use modified switch machines and are quite expensive. Frankly Im sticking to Kadee which I hope is still around 50 years from now.