Some will scratchbuild
Some will buy RTR
Some will run holographic layouts driven by a laser ball on the ceiling and laptop
And others will complain it is to hard to scratch build, expensive to by RTR and think it is too complicated to learn how to link the laser ball and the laptop.
And Bergie's grandson will be trying to catch the troll. . .
Joe
Gandy Dancer wrote: Any economic factor I can come up with results in cheaper models of higher quality. I think the real issue is no one is willing to settle for comparable products. Everyone wants to compare the new top quality stuff to the old run of the mill stuff. That is just not a reasonible comparison. Holding one's model expectations constant, the prices have come down through the years.
Any economic factor I can come up with results in cheaper models of higher quality. I think the real issue is no one is willing to settle for comparable products. Everyone wants to compare the new top quality stuff to the old run of the mill stuff. That is just not a reasonible comparison. Holding one's model expectations constant, the prices have come down through the years.
Sorry, Dancer, but those 1979 Blue Box Athearns were, at the time, the hobby standard against which all other products were measured, warts and all. They were the top-of-the-line production item, as good as it got over the counter. If you wanted better, you had to rework them yourself.
Now were they comparable in fidelity, detail and electrical technology to today's top-of-the-line? Of course not! Who could ever expect them to be? Time doesn't stand still. There are little things like progress and the advance of technology that intervene. Just look at the late 1970's pocket calculator vs. today's home computers. Hasn't there been a bit of an advancement there, or for any other of today's products you'd care to name? Like it or not, you have to compare the top-of-the-line, mass produced items of each period against one another in price to fairly judge the situation.
And since I go back way before 1979, I can tell you with considerable assurance that the hobby, overall, is currently the most expensive it has ever been since the mid to late 1950's. The real bargin years in model railroading were between the late 1960's and the early 1980's, when pricing remained almost flat over that long period. Judging by what I seen in the past decade, you're never likely to see that happen again!
CNJ831
Greg H. wrote: IIRC didn't the old GE Astrac system run on 24 volt AC? I think I remember a comment by Allen McClelland where he said that the higher voltage made contact problems pretty rare, but if you forgot and laid put your bare hand on the track (it was constant voltage) you'd know it!GeorgeI don't know.I thought the article was talking about 24 V DC but DC could cause some safety issues. I can see where 24 V AC could be better suited to such an application, and as far as safety is concerned would probably be better I have never been bitten by 24 V AC, but, I have been by 120 V AC, when I was taking a plug from a socket and my fingers had slipped a little to far forward and bridged the gap - not something I would want to do again but it was survivable for the amount of time it took to remind me to be more careful - I imagine that 24 V AC would be more so, just a good bite to remind you to be careful.I would think that directional control is probably a PITA with AC as compared with DC.
IIRC didn't the old GE Astrac system run on 24 volt AC? I think I remember a comment by Allen McClelland where he said that the higher voltage made contact problems pretty rare, but if you forgot and laid put your bare hand on the track (it was constant voltage) you'd know it!George
IIRC didn't the old GE Astrac system run on 24 volt AC? I think I remember a comment by Allen McClelland where he said that the higher voltage made contact problems pretty rare, but if you forgot and laid put your bare hand on the track (it was constant voltage) you'd know it!
George
I don't know.
I thought the article was talking about 24 V DC but DC could cause some safety issues. I can see where 24 V AC could be better suited to such an application, and as far as safety is concerned would probably be better
I have never been bitten by 24 V AC, but, I have been by 120 V AC, when I was taking a plug from a socket and my fingers had slipped a little to far forward and bridged the gap - not something I would want to do again but it was survivable for the amount of time it took to remind me to be more careful - I imagine that 24 V AC would be more so, just a good bite to remind you to be careful.
I would think that directional control is probably a PITA with AC as compared with DC.
Greg
I couldn't swear it was AC, but I'm sure about the 24 volts. It was quite a while ago that I saw it and haven't been able to find it since.
"And the sons of Pullman porters and the sons of engineers ride their father's magic carpet made of steel..."
The responses to the initial question here seem to fit onto the following categories:
1. Demographics & population size of the future modeling community.
2. Economics (specifically, expense) of pursuing the hobby
3. Technology options we might see.
I am going to skip #3, since I am really not "into" DCC and those advanced things (which is somewhat surprising in view of my technological background! My biggest investment in model electronics is: I love highway crossing flashers)
Since my day job is teaching strategy to executives, I offer some observations on #1 and #2.
Regarding #1, I think there is a lot of concern about decreasing population of modelers. I haven't seen any credible, professionally obtained data showing the age distribution of the model railroading community today compared to, say, 30 years ago. However, I see some evidence suggesting that the bigwigs in the hobby are concerned about this. Perhaps the biggest piece of evidence is Model Railroader's ongoing "WGH" campaign which must be costing Kalmbach significant $$$ and is, in my opinion, unquestionably being done because they desperately see a need to attract some new blood.
One category of modeler that is disappearing for sure is the true craftsman. I see a large trend away from kits of any kind, into "open up the box and put the contents in place." Here's one dramatic example: Who'd have thunk 20 years ago that you'd see the variety of pre-built plastic structures that are around today?
Regarding #2, yes, everything's getting more expensive. One reason is that the modeling community is getting more demanding about the fine points of fidelity of everything they see. That fidelity costs ya. The other reason is the big shift in production strategies, to 1) larger variety, and 2) smaller run sizes. Everyone must understand that those two parameters have to go together. Strategists have invented the term "mass customization" to describe this phenomenon. Advances in design and manufacturing technology, plus the ability to off-shore production, are making this possible; but it inexorably drives prices up. Yes, I like to buy American too --- I drive a Buick --- but I'm afraid the off-shoring is a necessary piece of this strategic puzzle.
Dave Vollmer wrote: In 2032, a new model railroad control system (an over-the-air control and power system) called SkyNet will become self-aware. It will then launch a nuclear strike against humankind, ushering in the rise of the machines and a long, devistating war for the survival of humanity. The resistance will be led by a model railroader named John Conner."Hasta la vista, baby!"
In 2032, a new model railroad control system (an over-the-air control and power system) called SkyNet will become self-aware. It will then launch a nuclear strike against humankind, ushering in the rise of the machines and a long, devistating war for the survival of humanity. The resistance will be led by a model railroader named John Conner.
"Hasta la vista, baby!"
Classic Dave, when I got to "Skynet" I knew were you were going.
No, this will be more like one of those "Benevolent Dictatorships" some of us learned about in high school. RailNet will impose a surcharge on something like your electric bill, and use it to fund a program in which Internet model dealers would receive orders to send trains out to non-modellers. Everyone would start getting trains delivered, and suddenly the whole planet would be seething with layouts in every scale. The problems of the Middle East would be forgotten as the Isrealis and Hamas would compete for the best pictures on Weekend Photo Fun, which might have to be shifted to midweek to avoid various Sabbaths and so forth. China would have to out-source Model Railroad production to the United States to keep up with production demands. Global Warming fears would diminish as people forsake their cars for train travel. Apple will come out with the iTrain.
Seriously? Well, I see more and better engine-cams. After building a layout, modellers will run their trains from another room, watching the scenery through video cameras in front of the engine.
It takes an iron man to play with a toy iron horse.
Being realistic, the level of detail and smoothness of operation will go up, track will be made better so there are fewer derailments, DCC will be less expensive as it gets more common, as will sound, the quality of sound systems will be better, there will be more readily available scenery products hopefully at lower prices, and Horizon will discontinue all Athearn kits.
Now for a little more fun, everything will have in-duh-vidual self-sustaining power supplies, operation will be controlled by a thinking cap with a little blinking light on top, modern trains will be magnetically levitated, P2K will be the Tyco of the railroad world while Model Power will dominate with their amazing quality and detail, engines and cars will have artificial intelligence so they know not to derail, 75% of the world population will be model railroaders, so prices will be reduced significantly ($12 for a PCM Big Boy), and so many other things.
_________________________________________________________________
I just checked my crystal ball. You wouldn't believe how things have changed twenty years from now. Here are a few highlights.
1. People are complaining about the price of new equipment.
2. Older modelers are talking about how things were better twenty years ago.
3. Some folks are talking about how the hobby is declining.
4. Others are discussing what the future of the hobby is.
Looking ahead over the next 25 years, I think the following will happen:
DCC will become standard probably with upgraded standards. It will be cheaper, easier, and a basic board will come installed on locomotives. Upgrade plugins with better/more controls and sound will be available. The throttle will be wireless either to the dcc base station or to the board in the locomotive, users option.
Computer interface and programs will be available to enable full operations with the computer taking all the roles that humans aren't available for - running trains, dispatching, etc. as needed.
RTR will continue to surge, but towards the end of 25 years will decline a little due to high cost of labor overseas.
On demand kits/RTR will be available so that you can have the model of your choice. The technology will still be somewhat expensive limiting it's market. This will change going further ahead.
Lionel will be making better giraffe cars.
Todays' 30 year olds will sit around saying the hobby's not like it used to be. These young people don't know what it was like in the good ol days.
Enjoy
Paul
Tom Curtin wrote: Since my day job is teaching strategy to executives, I offer some observations on #1 and #2.Regarding #1, I think there is a lot of concern about decreasing population of modelers. I haven't seen any credible, professionally obtained data showing the age distribution of the model railroading community today compared to, say, 30 years ago. However, I see some evidence suggesting that the bigwigs in the hobby are concerned about this. Perhaps the biggest piece of evidence is Model Railroader's ongoing "WGH" campaign which must be costing Kalmbach significant $$$ and is, in my opinion, unquestionably being done because they desperately see a need to attract some new blood.
Tom, WGH is by no means simply MR's/Kalmbach's project. The five year WGH campaign is sponsored by members of the HMA...to the initial tune of over a million contributed dollars and I'm not sure they haven't coughed up more, recently. Kalmbach is only a minor player in the grand scheme of this effort to drum up new blood. However, when you look at their actual stated goals, foremost isn't to encourage younger people into the hobby. To the contrary, their stated target is men 45 to 64...the potential biggest spenders. Never in past hobby history has the industry ever felt its future so threatened that it even gave a thought to such a program as WGH. That says a lot right there.
justincase65 wrote: gandy dancer wrote: jusincase65 wrote:With decoders in each car and a solinoid switch that works each coupler it could be done. What I don't understand is why one would want that, very unprototypical.Secondly, what do you mean unprototypical? Like using a bamboo skewer is a protypical way of uncoupling cars?
gandy dancer wrote: jusincase65 wrote:With decoders in each car and a solinoid switch that works each coupler it could be done. What I don't understand is why one would want that, very unprototypical.
jusincase65 wrote:With decoders in each car and a solinoid switch that works each coupler it could be done.
In fact, our automatic coupling when we press cars up against each other isn't too prototypical either. In real life a person has to manually go and open the coupler (more like the Lionel or Sargents brand couplers) and connect the brake hose.
CNJ831 wrote:Sorry, Dancer, but those 1979 Blue Box Athearns were, at the time, the hobby standard against which all other products were measured, warts and all. They were the top-of-the-line production item, as good as it got over the counter. If you wanted better, you had to rework them yourself.
Tom Curtin wrote:...One category of modeler that is disappearing for sure is the true craftsman. I see a large trend away from kits of any kind, into "open up the box and put the contents in place." Here's one dramatic example: Who'd have thunk 20 years ago that you'd see the variety of pre-built plastic structures that are around today?...
...
I don't think the true craftsman has disappeared (remember when he was the guy who bought castings and strip wood as opposed to kits? - remember when "craftsman" kits were more than assembling a plastic jigsaw puzzle?). I think he is doing just fine.
What has shrunk are the guys who used to built kits because that's all there was (RTR being too toyish and/or poorly operating). With the advent of good and high quality RTR that costs less than Brass and only a small amount more than kits, no one has to build if they don't want to.
And it turns out that a lot of folks want a model railroad but don't have the desire or time to build all the components.
I know that I don't have the time. I have been accumulating kits and parts for retirement in a couple of years, but at the moment I use RTR where I can because I want to get the railroad going. Which, come to think of it, is like a giant kit.
Gandy Dancer wrote: loathar wrote:I hope it doesn't advance too much more. I get tired of things getting so expensive that I can't afford them anymore.I really really really do not understand this. Things are SO relatively cheap now compared to what they used to be and they are better to boot. A most simple example - in 1979 an Athearn Blue Box GP9 cost me $18 street price. The detail was terrible with a way wide hood and it sucked 2.5 amps on start up. Now an Athearn RTR RS-3 retails for $90 with a street price of about $50. Lets see, as I recall minimum wage was $2.10 back then, so it took me 8.5 hours of work to make enough money for the loco. Now depending on which state one lives the minimum wage is an average of $7. So it now it only takes 7.1 hours of work to earn a similar Athearn locomotive. And that is a much better locomotive. Better looking, better running, and consumes much less power.Any economic factor I can come up with results in cheaper models of higher quality. I think the real issue is no one is willing to settle for comparable products. Everyone wants to compare the new top quality stuff to the old run of the mill stuff. That is just not a reasonible comparison. Holding one's model expectations constant, the prices have come down through the years. And to stay on topic, I believe that will be the trend into the future. There will be much better and more variation of models produced. The high end models will will continue to raise the bar on what is expected. People unwilling to be satisfied with what they used to have will gripe because things are getting too expensive, but those will be the same people that blast the old things like brass track, locos without can motors & fly wheels, DC, and other things that are being put down today. I am certain there are model railroaders out there that are more satisfied with, have more fun, and enjoy their "toy train" layouts much more than some of those with all the most modern, top of the line, and trendy things available in the hobby today.
loathar wrote:I hope it doesn't advance too much more. I get tired of things getting so expensive that I can't afford them anymore.
A most simple example - in 1979 an Athearn Blue Box GP9 cost me $18 street price. The detail was terrible with a way wide hood and it sucked 2.5 amps on start up. Now an Athearn RTR RS-3 retails for $90 with a street price of about $50. Lets see, as I recall minimum wage was $2.10 back then, so it took me 8.5 hours of work to make enough money for the loco. Now depending on which state one lives the minimum wage is an average of $7. So it now it only takes 7.1 hours of work to earn a similar Athearn locomotive. And that is a much better locomotive. Better looking, better running, and consumes much less power.
And to stay on topic, I believe that will be the trend into the future. There will be much better and more variation of models produced. The high end models will will continue to raise the bar on what is expected. People unwilling to be satisfied with what they used to have will gripe because things are getting too expensive, but those will be the same people that blast the old things like brass track, locos without can motors & fly wheels, DC, and other things that are being put down today. I am certain there are model railroaders out there that are more satisfied with, have more fun, and enjoy their "toy train" layouts much more than some of those with all the most modern, top of the line, and trendy things available in the hobby today.
Some things are getting pricier in this hobby. I'm not ranting about RTR locos or rolling stock as the quality and detailing are supurb compared to what was available twenty years ago. Since I do a lot of scratchbuilding and am not interested in the latest gadgets or fads, save for high quality RTR locos, my costs used to be minimal. I've noticed a trend in the pricing of dedicated detail parts and other supplies such as stripwood and especially paints. The prices are going through the roof! The prices on dedicated stripwood and paints has almost doubled in a few years and probably will continue this trend in the near future. Since I model in Large Scale and On30, I can use the dimensional stripwood, artists acrylics, and many other supplies available at discount craft stores at prices much lower than most LHSs. I don't fault the LHSs because they have to make a living and charge Walthers MSRP, however, with the many alternative online and discount stores, they will have a much harder time competing for our hobby funds. The trend for inflated prices will probably continue but modelers should try to utilize other sources for supplies whenever possible.
Me!
All the teenagers will be old, thats what I foresee :D
Alex
Gandy Dancer wrote: CNJ831 wrote:Sorry, Dancer, but those 1979 Blue Box Athearns were, at the time, the hobby standard against which all other products were measured, warts and all. They were the top-of-the-line production item, as good as it got over the counter. If you wanted better, you had to rework them yourself.Hmmm... Not that I don't understand your point, but I have to disagree and say I've never considered the Athearn Blue box to be top of the line. Atlas had them beat hands down with Roco drive, Hobby Town had can motors and the centrifugal clutch system, even the Model Power E units had those massive can motors by then. It wasn't until GSB announce their "bull dog" drive for the SD40 that Athearn improved the Blue box line to try to contend for top-of-the-line, but then Atlas trumped them with the Kato drive.
In point of fact, in 1979 Hobbytown of Boston was such a minor player in the hobby as to be largely unknown to the majority of hobbyists. They were mentioned by a few hobbyist in MR occasionally but they appear to have largely been a word of mouth product. They certainly didn't advertise what they had available in the way of motive power in the hobby press. And while their mechanisms could indeed "pull down the walls", that was largely all they offered. What few customers bought them assembled completed units with other company's shells, so they can't be called an individual product.
Model Power's E's were nice too, but outside of that one item, their products were considered junk. One loco, of very limited appeal, does not make a state-of-the-art standard. If it did, you could certainly find obscure, singular items today (especially European) that are decidely superior to the accepted best general runs of ours today. For detail, if you want to see "plastic brass", they really do have it.
I will agree that Atlas had started to introduce some nice running diesels at that point. However, their availability and selection was still quite limited...just check the hobbyshop/mail order dealers' listings of the day and see how very few carried Atlas (I found almost none early in the year!). I think that Hobbies For Men, in Beacon, NY, may have been the first major retailer (beyond Atlas themselves) to give the product any ad space.
In 1979 the standards in the hobby were Athearn, MDC, Bowser, Mantua, and AHM. Of these, by shear volume and reputation, Athearn would have to be considered as far and away the leader and "state-of-the art" among what was available in a complete line of HO motive power and to which everything else was to be compared. If you ran diesels back then, odds were at least 25:1 that they were made by Athearn.
IRONROOSTER wrote: I don't think the true craftsman has disappeared (remember when he was the guy who bought castings and strip wood as opposed to kits?
I don't think the true craftsman has disappeared (remember when he was the guy who bought castings and strip wood as opposed to kits?
No, I agree he hasn't disappeared. However the population of craftsmen is declining, and I think rapidly. I think he will disappear sooner or later.
IRONROOSTER wrote: - What has shrunk are the guys who used to built kits because that's all there was (RTR being too toyish and/or poorly operating). With the advent of good and high quality RTR that costs less than Brass and only a small amount more than kits, no one has to build if they don't want to. And it turns out that a lot of folks want a model railroad but don't have the desire or time to build all the components.
- What has shrunk are the guys who used to built kits because that's all there was (RTR being too toyish and/or poorly operating). With the advent of good and high quality RTR that costs less than Brass and only a small amount more than kits, no one has to build if they don't want to.
Gandy Dancer wrote:A real person has to manually go to the car and pull the uncoupling handle. They cannot sit up in a tower somewhere and push a button to uncouple where ever they want.In fact, our automatic coupling when we press cars up against each other isn't too prototypical either. In real life a person has to manually go and open the coupler (more like the Lionel or Sargents brand couplers) and connect the brake hose.
A real person has to manually go to the car and pull the uncoupling handle. They cannot sit up in a tower somewhere and push a button to uncouple where ever they want.
Now I know you're not suggesting someone invent a tiny little android person/brakeman/engineer to go around coupling & uncoupling our cars are you? Maybe running our tiny little live steam units built in N scale according to our giant wims and jumping off to run and switch a turnout just for prototypical realism.
All I was trying to say is I don't want to reach into my artificial scene to use a bamboo skewer to uncouple my cars. I'm modeling in N-scale and my giant fingers fumbling around in that little scene just doesn't do it for me on the realism side. I think it would be much more realistic if I could punch in a code and tell the car to uncouple itself just as if that tiny little guy had done it.
I do think automatic uncoupling is possible its just a matter of making it practical.
Technology-wise, DCC still the standard for command control, but the decoders will have power capacitors to hold a charge to run the locomotive over dirty track (Lenz is using this now). I predict that someone will have a DCC system that is simply a program on your PC with an interface to the track boosters, and you will be able to use a cell phone as a wireless throttle. You will also be able to see the view from the locomotive cab mini-cam on your cell phone screen as you run the train.
Sound will be standard even in low end train set locomotives.
The NMRA will finally adopt an HO scale knuckle coupler standard which will still not be near as good as Kadee's.
Model RR only LHS's will likely disappear. Only the largest retailers in the big cities will remain, with most of the smaller businesses going to internet sales. One of the big-box retailers may add a hobby section to their stores, at best, carrying strictly RTR. There will be more small scale home industries making and selling limited run models and kits, again on the internet.
John
If everybody is thinking alike, then nobody is really thinking.
http://photobucket.com/tandarailroad/
jfallon wrote:I predict that someone will have a DCC system that is simply a program on your PC with an interface to the track boosters,
and you will be able to use a cell phone as a wireless throttle.
jfallon wrote: snipModel RR only LHS's will likely disappear. Only the largest retailers in the big cities will remain, with most of the smaller businesses going to internet sales. One of the big-box retailers may add a hobby section to their stores, at best, carrying strictly RTR. There will be more small scale home industries making and selling limited run models and kits, again on the internet. John
It is interesting that people write off the LHS now and in the future. Denver has TWO of the best hobby shops in the entire US, maybe even the world! And that is fact. Caboose is always busy, Sunday morning, Tuesday afternoon, perhaps they are slow during the Bronco games but I doubt that too. And they are my favorite web place too! AN Don's in Greeley is nothing to dismiss either!
Everyone thought that Wally Mart would destroy the hardware and lumber yards. Not a chance, HD and Lowes thrive, I have THREE Lowes very close to me and a FOURTH is about to rise out of the ground 2 miles from the house.
Model railroading is typically an old man's hobby, and I am certainly following into that mold. The boomers are heading into the last turn. Will these high tech, toy loving, well healed fellows migrate to the model railroad hobby? Certainly some will.
I am optimistic, the hobby will continue to florish, attract new hobbyists and the demand for stuff will remain strong. That means someone must sell the goods. Take Ebay out of the picture and tell me an exciting web hobby shop to visit, something that will captivate me like an hour at Mizells or the Caboose. Don't even bother trying to tell me there is one, I've visited them all and nothing fulfills like seeing the wall of trains or the brass case. Nothing.
Only my 2 cents, never worth an extra penny!
DCC is the wave of today, however in a few years, as batteries inprove and get smaller, I'd like to see wireless controlled battery powered locomotives that can run for an hour or more on one charge.
Loco's would be "refueled" on charging track(s). These could be at diesel refueling facilities or coaling towers and would be fully automatic quick charging, say less than five real time minutes.
Imagine, wireless "DCC" with no power to the tracks, no wiring issues, no rail gaps, no reverse loop wiring, no turntable wiring, no need for isolating blocks, all rail switches with all metal parts inculding tie bars, no short circuits through poor wiring, no short circuits due to trailing through a switch, no shorts due to wheels touching the backs of switch blades, no power blocks, no "boosters" etc., etc.. The advantages of battery power are endless.
Cheers
Roger T.
Home of the late Great Eastern Railway see: - http://www.greateasternrailway.com
For more photos of the late GER see: - http://s94.photobucket.com/albums/l99/rogertra/Great_Eastern/
GTX765 wrote: oleirish wrote: I think It will be radio control even in the "N" scale.Think about It??no wires under the lay out,no block controls,ECT,ECT.radio is getting smaller everyday!It is allredy used in "G" scale,and some "O" scale,"HO" is close allso at the present.JIMHow would the radio control work? You would need a some very nice electronics in the engines. The R/C hobby cars are far more pricy when it comes to the electronics and radio controlled systems. Would the engines run on a battery then? Just wondering, I have not seen any trains yet with R/C and wondered if it was the same as R/C cars.
oleirish wrote: I think It will be radio control even in the "N" scale.Think about It??no wires under the lay out,no block controls,ECT,ECT.radio is getting smaller everyday!It is allredy used in "G" scale,and some "O" scale,"HO" is close allso at the present.JIM
I think It will be radio control even in the "N" scale.Think about It??no wires under the lay out,no block controls,ECT,ECT.radio is getting smaller everyday!It is allredy used in "G" scale,and some "O" scale,"HO" is close allso at the present.
JIM
How would the radio control work? You would need a some very nice electronics in the engines. The R/C hobby cars are far more pricy when it comes to the electronics and radio controlled systems. Would the engines run on a battery then? Just wondering, I have not seen any trains yet with R/C and wondered if it was the same as R/C cars.
I predict that it won't be batteries, but miniature fuel cells that will power our future locos. There will also be wireless DCC. Hey, maybe each car will have wireless technology to control their couplers as well?
So now there will be no need for cleaning track, and it can be made out of cheaper materials. Also add that traction tires can be more extensively used on locos, so they will be able to haul more without fear of compromising electrical/signal pickup (since there will be none).
Probably something that will happen more than 25 years from now. But I have read that computer makers are aggressively pursuing fuel cell technology for laptop PCs. They want to do away with batteries altogether because fuel cells will outlast them and weigh much less. Several other industries are also trying to develop fuel cells to replace batteries in various equipment that is currently battery operated.
joe-daddy wrote: jfallon wrote: snipModel RR only LHS's will likely disappear. Only the largest retailers in the big cities will remain, with most of the smaller businesses going to internet sales. One of the big-box retailers may add a hobby section to their stores, at best, carrying strictly RTR. There will be more small scale home industries making and selling limited run models and kits, again on the internet. John It is interesting that people write off the LHS now and in the future. Denver has TWO of the best hobby shops in the entire US, maybe even the world! And that is fact. Caboose is always busy, Sunday morning, Tuesday afternoon, perhaps they are slow during the Bronco games but I doubt that too. And they are my favorite web place too! AN Don's in Greeley is nothing to dismiss either!Everyone thought that Wally Mart would destroy the hardware and lumber yards. Not a chance, HD and Lowes thrive, I have THREE Lowes very close to me and a FOURTH is about to rise out of the ground 2 miles from the house.Model railroading is typically an old man's hobby, and I am certainly following into that mold. The boomers are heading into the last turn. Will these high tech, toy loving, well healed fellows migrate to the model railroad hobby? Certainly some will. I am optimistic, the hobby will continue to florish, attract new hobbyists and the demand for stuff will remain strong. That means someone must sell the goods. Take Ebay out of the picture and tell me an exciting web hobby shop to visit, something that will captivate me like an hour at Mizells or the Caboose. Don't even bother trying to tell me there is one, I've visited them all and nothing fulfills like seeing the wall of trains or the brass case. Nothing.Only my 2 cents, never worth an extra penny! Joe
As far as LHSs go, Caboose Hobbies is the exception rather than the norm. Most cities, even some large ones, either have no LHS or skimpily stocked, poorly-ran ones which makes online ordering a must. If it wasn't for places like Caboose Hobbies, and had to rely strictly on our LHSs, my modeling would be severely limited. I believe tmany smaller LHSs will be going the way of the 8 track while places like Caboose, Trainworld and other shops that are up-to-date with online ordering will prosper.
When HDTV becomes the law a huge amount of band width will become available with no interference on it. The FCC plans to auction it off. Experts are forecasting that this event will make all kinds of broadcast applications possible that were not heretofore.
With 15 volt AC on the tracks, and diodes in the engine for conversion to DC, radio control will be a reality. An alternative will be batteries recharged by DC track current which can be at 3 volts to operate LEDS and recharge batteries (2 1.5 V cells). Any thing is possible when the electronic geniuses put there mind to it.
DC was a big improvement over AC. 12 volts was a big improvement over 6 volts. DCC was another step up. We just don't know yet where UP really is.
But I am betting it will be a big improvement over DCC and will be compatible with both DC and DCC equipped engines. The track can then be blocked for signalling and crossing controls, etc. without regard to the control system.
I would suggest that the Craftsman is not vanishing from the hobby. They may not be here on this forum, but there is a vibrant and thriving craftsman segment of this hobby. The recent narrow gauge convention, which features many craftsmen, had a greater attendance than the NMRA convention. There is a first annual Craftsman Structure Show coming up this fall. http://www.craftsmanstructureshow.com/ Registration has been high to the extent that they are no longer accepting registrations for the hands on clinic. As I have entered this new world I have been discovering that there are dozens of companies producing high quality craftsman style kits.
I think the hobby will become more and more segmented and specialized. Cottage industries will serve these segments. To an extent this has largely happened already. Even the "Big Players" in DCC are small specialized companies.
I don't have a clue what will happen with technology in the future, but I would suggest that at least for the next decade the craftsman segment of MRR will actually grow.
Simon Modelling CB&Q and Wabash See my slowly evolving layout on my picturetrail site http://www.picturetrail.com/simontrains and our videos at http://www.youtube.com/user/MrCrispybake?feature=mhum
In the future, I suspect that DCC will become ubiquitous, with the systems getting more powerful and yet smaller, and moreover, simpler and ever-more user friendly. And probably less expensive. That's always been the way with technology. And kids growing up today are growing up in a tech-heavy world....there won't be as much aversion to it. Instead of 20% of MR's being in DCC, like today, it will be more like 80%.
I also think that N will become the new HO. N offers greater scale for layouts and greater ability to run, in a smaller space, the longer freight cars of today, the ones that kids are growing up seeing. And N products will grow in quantity and detail.
And I speak this as someone who is dedicated to HO, and who is pretty technologically challenged at times.
Advertisers will work with publishers to build 'purchase account options' priced directly into subscriptions. A reader will then be allowed to scan a product barcode in the magazine from their living room via wireless technology --- and the item ordered will be processed and shipped with no further action by the subscriber. Easy shopping!
I WISH the future of model railroading included a model of every locomotive ever made. Good running, well detailed models of every locomotive you can think of...
The future of this forum should include no trolls.