I've seen the MR article about what some people think about the future of model trains, but that's only like 10 people. I want to know what other people think. It could be anything. Like I think someday, they will have mini diesel engines that will fit inside HO scale locomotives and have a real horns and air brakes.
Decoders in each train car speaking to your PDA by wireless preciesly what is loaded (Or not loaded) and where it needs to go.
Instead of shuffling car cards one would tap a bunch of buttons and squint into a small screen.
Trains will have sort of mini GPS onboard and know pretty much where your track goes and where down to the milli-meter level. If you hooked a local engine to a train full of decoders talking to it it might be able to proceed to a town and switch it without human input.
You probably will be reduced to a role of MOW.. fixing derailments and balky couplers asap.
People will log onto your home server and operate your railroad by Signalling via the Internet instead of actually trying to meet together one night a month.
Maybe a virtual railroad will be build that precisely replicate your layout down to the last tie and spike so that these operators from the other side of the globe will know where they have been and where they are going. Thier virtual trains will be updated by your layout's sensors and loconet plus signals data from all the trains currently running.
We already have people commuting to a base in Nevada to fly combat missions via remote control of unmanned robot aircraft 24/7 around the globe in real time. So it should not be too difficult.
In fact, it might be easier for a real railroad to allow control of thier trains this way instead of trying to maintain actual humans on that engine obeying the hog law.
The prototype technology being modeled will advance somewhat behind the prototype technology in the real world, just as it has always done. Fewer people will model steam, and those that do will model it as used on tourist lines or in excursion operation. There will always be a market for the very latest locos and rolling stock, and an even larger market for prototypes a decade or two old.
The reason is simple. Most folks model what they saw when they were at their most impressionable age. For folks currently drawing Social Security that's the age of superpower steam, and the first diesel generation. People getting their portfolios into shape for retirement model the later transition era and road switchers begin to dominate. New empty-nesters go for Conrail and early Amtrak...
Of course there will always be exceptions. After all, ship modelers still build clippers and 74s, and none of them have been in service during the lifetime of the centenarians among us...
Anyone for an HO model of NYC 999 as-built, with the monster drivers, DCC, sound and smoke?
Chuck (modeling Central Japan in September, 1964)
Based on how the hobby has evolved over the last 25 years and thus based far more on fact than on fantasy, the next 25 will see the number of hobbyists shrink to only a small fraction of what it is today, perhaps even back to the levels where the hobby was in 1945. This will be as the result of a number of changing societal factors which are already clearly apparent.
The pricing of all hobby items will escalate to the point where only a relatively well off segment of the population can participate fully and have complete layouts. Technology will allow every item to be done as an extremely limited run...perhaps no more than 100 units at a time...yet still be profitable to the manufacturers because of the prices charged the buyer. Personal craftsmanship and advanced modeling skills will have dwindled to almost nil, their place taken by the store bought, highly advanced technology offered from the manufacturers.
Nearly all layouts will be assembled from commercially made, totally finished-out, modules that can go together in a number of possible arrangements. Personally building your own individual unique layout of any size from the benchwork up will be an looked upon as an anachonism. The trains, themselves, will be completely operated through a computer program, without any need for human operator intervention. You will plug-in a pre-written chip, or maybe occasionally punch in yourself, a set of routing instructions for the train, hit enter, and it will go dutifully through all its stops, setouts and pickups automatically as the "operator" simply stands by and watches.
"Model railroaders", themselves, essentially will have become computer/electrical technophiles, no longer skilled hobbyists in the way we understand the term today, basically using someone else's (the manufacturers' or some custom builders') layout and equipment, much as is done with virtual layouts on-line today. Virtual layouts, in particular, will constitute a very large segment of the hobby and be in great demand, again because of societal changes and time limitations. They will replicate all the famous layouts of the past for you to call up and play on...in full 3-D, with prototype surround sound and seen from a viewpoint as if the operator were 1/87 scale...and riding in the cab, of course!
CNJ831
In response to CNJ831, I believe that within 25 years, there will be a surge in the hobby, as people my age (people in their mid teens) will come back into the hobby after college and marriage. I foresee myself participating in the hobby for the rest of my life, and I'm sure there are other teens with me. For example...I was in a hobby store the other day (about 2 hours from my house) and met a 17 year old, who was an employee! Obviously there are younger modelers out there.
Also, I'm surprised nobody has mentioned the fact of increased technology. I'm sure as the hobby becomes for digital, and as RRs come into the public spotlight again (Amtrak ridership is up, NS has commericals on everyday, GE has locomotive commericals on everyday, and government grants are being passed out left and right), it may create an whole new batch of modelers, who are drawn to the digital and computer aspect of the hobby.
Also, I can't say that people purchasing commerically available modules is a bad thing. Remember that many manufacturers produce these, and if their module sales are up, it increases their bottom line, so that they can increase production in their other lines.
Just my 2 cents
I think it can be summed up with one term: better technology.
The advances of the past 30 years have been incredible.
DCC is huge - now we can control the locos instead of just controlling the power to the tracks. Styrene injection molding is so much crisper. Technology has also allowed many small manufacturers to exist; there is so much more to choose from today.
I think the biggest advances will be in electronics. There will be more animation as in roundhouse doors that open and so forth; ultra-easy to use and install signal systems; building illumination. Maybe even automobiles that drive around on their own.
Craig
DMW
Controllers that are implanted in your brain, so you can control your entire layout by force of will.
The logical pinnacle of RTR evolution - layouts that spontaneously build and operate themselves when you open the box.
Four-figure price tags on average-to-good quality locomotives, so loaded with features that an engineering degree is required to operate them properly.
Layouts that need to be plugged into the wall to run considered to be quaint relics.
Of course, we were also predicting atomic-powered automobiles in the '50's...
"I am lapidary but not eristic when I use big words." - William F. Buckley
I haven't been sleeping. I'm afraid I'll dream I'm in a coma and then wake up unconscious. -Stephen Wright
I ran into an artical in an older book ( printed in the eartly 70's or so ), where the author made a fairly good argument, for doubling the voltage ( and dropping the amps by half ), that the trains run at.
Since then keep seeing I seeing it show up from time to time and it's still a fairly good argument, but time will tell.
I think It will be radio control even in the "N" scale.Think about It??no wires under the lay out,no block controls,ECT,ECT.radio is getting smaller everyday!It is allredy used in "G" scale,and some "O" scale,"HO" is close allso at the present.
JIM
Varnet wrote:I'm looking forward to having digital couplers on everything some day. It will be fun to switch/shunt almost completely hands free!
This is what I'm waiting for. I've thought about it a lot in fact. With decoders in each car and a solinoid switch that works each coupler it could be done. Unfornutaely, I don't think DCC can handle that many decoders at a time on a layout particularly the larger layouts with hundreds of cars to program.
justincase65 wrote: Varnet wrote:I'm looking forward to having digital couplers on everything some day. It will be fun to switch/shunt almost completely hands free! This is what I'm waiting for. I've thought about it a lot in fact. With decoders in each car and a solinoid switch that works each coupler it could be done. Unfornutaely, I don't think DCC can handle that many decoders at a time on a layout particularly the larger layouts with hundreds of cars to program.
My DCS 200 can handle 100-120 seperate decoders at once.
Average train length 15 cars, not a problem.
I think uncouplers already are coming onto the market, they use modified switch machines and are quite expensive. Frankly Im sticking to Kadee which I hope is still around 50 years from now.
A couple of trends:
1. Technology will make things cheaper, better, and faster. Both in model production and electronics.
2. Any piece of equipment that has a following will be offered commercially, albeit in a small run.
3. Modelers will be more attuned to subtle differences in prototypes. The differences between Frisco's Alco Russian Decapods and Frisco's Baldwin Russian Decapods will be significant - as will be the difference between "in service" and "preserved" variations.
4. We'll see layouts based on prototypes that are not reasonable to model today, like a substantial layout based on the South Shore Line (a 20 car roster would be a significant part of the importer's run of brass cars - and what about all those catenary towers!).
5. We'll see more "unusual" layout concepts. Someone will model a railroad museum. Someone will model a "retro" layout with 1950's and 1960's trains.
6. We'll see more "what if" layout themes. Expect to have a good idea of what a PRR 4-8-4 would have looked like - and someone to build a live steam model. Also expect to see a layout based on mergers happening differently.
7. There still will be LHS, but they will either be one man shows or big stores. However, most of the basic hobby supplies (wood, paint, plastic stock) would be available retail.
8. The "community" of people with similar interests would be worldwide.
9. There still will be lots of straight DC layouts and "plywood central" layouts in 3-rail O.
Greg H. wrote: I ran into an artical in an older book ( printed in the eartly 70's or so ), where the author made a fairly good argument, for doubling the voltage ( and dropping the amps by half ), that the trains run at. Since then keep seeing I seeing it show up from time to time and it's still a fairly good argument, but time will tell.
IIRC didn't the old GE Astrac system run on 24 volt AC? I think I remember a comment by Allen McClelland where he said that the higher voltage made contact problems pretty rare, but if you forgot and laid put your bare hand on the track (it was constant voltage) you'd know it!
George
"And the sons of Pullman porters and the sons of engineers ride their father's magic carpet made of steel..."
oleirish wrote:I think It will be radio control even in the "N" scale.Think about It??no wires under the lay out,no block controls,ECT,ECT.radio is getting smaller everyday!It is allredy used in "G" scale,and some "O" scale,"HO" is close allso at the present.JIM
Great minds must think alike, I model Southern Pacific in N scale and I agree that this is where the future lies, in fact I stated today at our open house that I don't believe DCC will be around much in a couple of years, but Radio Control with battery powered locos will be all the rage, if track voltage is involved, it will only be to keep batteries charged.
Teditor
oleirish wrote: I think It will be radio control even in the "N" scale.Think about It??no wires under the lay out,no block controls,ECT,ECT.radio is getting smaller everyday!It is allredy used in "G" scale,and some "O" scale,"HO" is close allso at the present.JIM
How would the radio control work? You would need a some very nice electronics in the engines. The R/C hobby cars are far more pricy when it comes to the electronics and radio controlled systems. Would the engines run on a battery then? Just wondering, I have not seen any trains yet with R/C and wondered if it was the same as R/C cars.
In 2032, a new model railroad control system (an over-the-air control and power system) called SkyNet will become self-aware. It will then launch a nuclear strike against humankind, ushering in the rise of the machines and a long, devistating war for the survival of humanity. The resistance will be led by a model railroader named John Conner.
"Hasta la vista, baby!"
Modeling the Rio Grande Southern First District circa 1938-1946 in HOn3.
loathar wrote:I hope it doesn't advance too much more. I get tired of things getting so expensive that I can't afford them anymore.
I agree 100% sadly though things will change, manufacturers have a knack of finding ways to plunder your wallet, IMO advancement in technology is not always a good thing.
IIRC didn't the old GE Astrac system run on 24 volt AC? I think I remember a comment by Allen McClelland where he said that the higher voltage made contact problems pretty rare, but if you forgot and laid put your bare hand on the track (it was constant voltage) you'd know it!George
I don't know.
I thought the article was talking about 24 V DC but DC could cause some safety issues. I can see where 24 V AC could be better suited to such an application, and as far as safety is concerned would probably be better
I have never been bitten by 24 V AC, but, I have been by 120 V AC, when I was taking a plug from a socket and my fingers had slipped a little to far forward and bridged the gap - not something I would want to do again but it was survivable for the amount of time it took to remind me to be more careful - I imagine that 24 V AC would be more so, just a good bite to remind you to be careful.
I would think that directional control is probably a PITA with AC as compared with DC.
justincase65 wrote:I don't think DCC can handle that many decoders at a time on a layout particularly the larger layouts with hundreds of cars to program.
jusincase65 wrote:With decoders in each car and a solinoid switch that works each coupler it could be done.
A most simple example - in 1979 an Athearn Blue Box GP9 cost me $18 street price. The detail was terrible with a way wide hood and it sucked 2.5 amps on start up. Now an Athearn RTR RS-3 retails for $90 with a street price of about $50. Lets see, as I recall minimum wage was $2.10 back then, so it took me 8.5 hours of work to make enough money for the loco. Now depending on which state one lives the minimum wage is an average of $7. So it now it only takes 7.1 hours of work to earn a similar Athearn locomotive. And that is a much better locomotive. Better looking, better running, and consumes much less power.
Any economic factor I can come up with results in cheaper models of higher quality. I think the real issue is no one is willing to settle for comparable products. Everyone wants to compare the new top quality stuff to the old run of the mill stuff. That is just not a reasonible comparison. Holding one's model expectations constant, the prices have come down through the years.
And to stay on topic, I believe that will be the trend into the future. There will be much better and more variation of models produced. The high end models will will continue to raise the bar on what is expected. People unwilling to be satisfied with what they used to have will gripe because things are getting too expensive, but those will be the same people that blast the old things like brass track, locos without can motors & fly wheels, DC, and other things that are being put down today. I am certain there are model railroaders out there that are more satisfied with, have more fun, and enjoy their "toy train" layouts much more than some of those with all the most modern, top of the line, and trendy things available in the hobby today.
Gandy Dancer wrote: justincase65 wrote:I don't think DCC can handle that many decoders at a time on a layout particularly the larger layouts with hundreds of cars to program. ???? Where did you get an idea like that???? Current DCC systems can handle 9999 decoder addresses. jusincase65 wrote:With decoders in each car and a solinoid switch that works each coupler it could be done. What I don't understand is why one would want that, very unprototypical.
I don't have a DCC system yet and wasn't aware that they could handle that many decoders. Thanks for the insight.
Secondly, what do you mean unprototypical? Like using a bamboo skewer is a protypical way of uncoupling cars?