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Are modellers be priced out the hobby?

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Posted by Anonymous on Thursday, December 22, 2005 9:45 AM
QUOTE: Originally posted by ctcbound

I had an interesting chat with a gent a couple of days ago. He said, that his friends either stopped buying trains completely or got out the hobby because the cost were increasing too fast. Has anyone else heard this? And if so why aren't the companies responding to this?

Roger


This hobby is like any other hobby that people spend money on according to their own interest.

You can spend way too much or just a little and still enjoy the hobby. You have to know "when to hold them and when to walk away. "
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Posted by andrechapelon on Thursday, December 22, 2005 9:52 AM
QUOTE: Originally posted by whitman500

QUOTE: You're forgetting one thing. Us supposedly well heeled old codgers were once young puppies without a container in which to pass water. The hobby was just as expensive then as it is now relative to the overall cost of living and wage rates. Things weren't any better then. 35 cent a gallon gas in 1965 is roughly the equivalent of what gas sells for locally here in Monterey (about $2.21/gal at the cheapest places).There were people then at the peak of their earning years who could afford brass, just as there are people now who can afford the latest that BLI has to offer. Guess how many nice brass engines were offered as compared to new offerings of moderately priced plastic or cast metal engines.


If you actually look at the demographic data, this isn't really correct. In 1965 the poorest segment of the US population was retired people. Today they are the richest. While things have decidedly moved in their favor, the situation is the reverse for young people. Over the last 40 years, we've seen the creation of Medicare and vast increases in the generosity of Social Security which has materially improved the standard of living of retired people and people near retirement (who no longer have to save as much money as previously). On the otherhand, young people have to deal with higher education costs (which have grown much faster than inflation), higher health insurance costs (which have also grown much faster than inflation and which there is no Medicare-equivalent subsidy for), much higher Social Security payroll taxes, and much less generous pension plans from employers (requiring people to save more). I guarantee you that in terms of disposable income the gap between people in their 20s and 30s and people in their 50s and 60s has widened considerably over the last few decades.

While this may be something of a tangent, I do think this trend makes it more difficult for manufacturers to simultaneously appeal to new, younger hobbyists and baby boomers and exacerbates the tension between planning for the future and maximizing current profits.


Had you really read what I said, I talked about people in their peak earning years, not retired people. There's a difference.

Andre
It's really kind of hard to support your local hobby shop when the nearest hobby shop that's worth the name is a 150 mile roundtrip.
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Posted by Anonymous on Thursday, December 22, 2005 10:33 AM
Andre said it,I said it,YOU HAVE TO LIKE TRAINS TO WANT TO MODEL THEM. How many people would buy trains if they were cheap? Oh, sure, there would be a jump, but don't think it would be the rage it was back in the fifties/sixties, when it was the gotta have toy. The reason us babyboomers are into model railroading is because we had it in our youth, a lot of us left the hobby in mid sixties as we grew up,went to college,war,got married,did other things, then in 80's/90's, we all discovered our old friend,model trains.
Have you been to walmart/k-mart, or toysrus?How many model cars and airplanes do you see now? Not as many as a few years back. Why? Prices? No, lack of interest. Go buy a kid an eractor set, see how long before it sits idle. Buy him a gamecube, and try to pry him from it to eat dinner. No my freinds,prices are higher,but the interest has dropped and the two aren't necessarily related.
Mike
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Posted by whitman500 on Thursday, December 22, 2005 10:45 AM
Read your first two sentences. You specifically mentioned young versus old in the context of differences in earning power.

However, if you want to shift your argument to the claim that income disparities were just as great 40 years ago as they are today that is also not correct. The distribution of both income and wealth in the US has widened significantly over the last 25 years and is much higher than in the 1950s and 1960s (i.e., the gap between the wealthiest Americans and everyone else has widened significantly).
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Posted by Anonymous on Thursday, December 22, 2005 10:51 AM
For those who think they are being priced out of the hobby, I believe some of the manufacturers have heard you now you must respond. Atlas is now offering their "Trainman" line of products. Cars will be selling for 10 dollars and their first engine will be 50 dollars. Broadway Limited is now offering some of their units as "stealth" units, cutting the price in half.

If you think you are being priced out of the hobby I suggest you buy these products immediately! The only thing that these companies will listen to is the ring of the cash registers when these products are sold. If the intial run of these products is successful then they will produce more. The manufactors are listening and it's time for you to say "YES WE HEAR YOU AND WE WANT MORE!"
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Posted by slotracer on Thursday, December 22, 2005 12:23 PM
In the fifties things were probably considerably more expensive compared to average wages....and the quality was considerably less than even Athearn blue box so the value quotient was way low.

I remember thinking through the mid seventies up to the very early nineties of how little inflation there was at all (At least in HO)....particulalry Ahearn, MDC and similar stuff, one could get Blue box engines, shake the box kits and so many other items at pices within dimes of what the item cost a decade or more prior.

The move to RTR is one factor, the move to high quality stuff is another and many items who's prices were stagnant for years have ahd an inflationary "catch up"

The $100 diesels are a landmark piece but one needs to consider these $100 Sugested lsit items can be picked up at shows and discounts for $50 to $75 pretty frequently.

I recall in teh late eighties taking Athearn Blue box engines for about $20 new, adding $25 to remotor and upgrade teh drive and another $20 minimum to add details and probably paint and decals so the price comes out about the same, when one fgures the $100 list engine today is of far better die work, better detail, better running characteristics and does not require many hours of time to create, they are a comparitive bargain Consider teh value of a buck in say 1988 vs 2005 and it is cheaper today in literal tersm and definitely in value consideration
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Posted by Anonymous on Thursday, December 22, 2005 1:48 PM
Some posters should just stick to their repetitious warnings about the end of the hobby, because their stats work is poor.

According to the US Dept of Labor, 1980 average weekly earnings for non-supervisory and production workers (to leave out those accursed high wage earners some posters so despise) was $240.77. So far in 2005, it is $543.04.

So in 1980 the Atlas diesel I mentioned in an earlier post that cost $21.99 street price would have been about 9% of a week's salary for a production worker. An Atlas Trainman diesel at $55 street price in 2005 would be 10% of the week's salary for a worker making the average non-supervisory or production worker's wage.

1% difference in real cost for a vastly improved product? Sounds like the hobby is pretty cheap. Again, this is without extensive shopping around.

How about retirees? In 1980, the average social security weekly benefit to a male was $86.31. The Atlas diesel of 1980 was just over 25% of Grandpa's weekly Social Security benefit. In 2003 (the last year I had figures handy), the average weekly Social Security benefit paid to a man was $239.75. A Trainman diesel sets today's AARP member back 22.9% of the weekly benefit. Cheaper today in relative terms.

Sorry to intrude on all the gloom and doom with real data ... we now return you to the usual whining session.

Jon
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Posted by dcgrosvold on Thursday, December 22, 2005 1:53 PM
Hmmm... Let's see - compared to my other hobbies:

Astronomy - telescope, camera and accessories - $4000
Photography - another camera: $1299 lenses: $800- $900 each
SCUBA - regulator: $300 -$800 mask $ fins: $200, dive computer $800;
wetsuit: $250 - $400, BCD: $950 (times TWO - hers and mine)
Woodworking - tools $8000 - $10000, shop space: $80 - $100 per square foot.
RV - $15,000 (truck camper, used at equine events)
Equestrian - horses: $4000 - $12000 each, saddles: $1200 - $3500 each,
other tack: $400 - $1000, horse trailer: $15,000 trucks: $32,000
tractor - $10,000, well - you get the idea.

Model railroading expensive? I don't think so. You can scratchbuild a lot of your model railroad for a fairly small investment, or you can buy everything Ready-To-Run, including your layout.

I don't think I'm all that different from the other average joes on this forum. I'm sure we all have more than one hobby. How do I get my wife to let me spend money on mine? I take her camping. I take her SCUBA diving. SHE gets most of the horse stuff (yes, I have my own as well,) Generally, we play together. She does model railroading as well. NOW she's talking about 12" guage live steam! She wants us to be able to ride around the ranch on our own railroad! Can't argue with THAT! [:D]

Dave Grosvold Canehill, AR

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Posted by selector on Thursday, December 22, 2005 4:08 PM
Those last two posts are super. Thanks. Unfortunately, some will NOT be told. It just doesn't fit with their world-view.
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Posted by andrechapelon on Thursday, December 22, 2005 4:22 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by alco_fan

Some posters should just stick to their repetitious warnings about the end of the hobby, because their stats work is poor.

According to the US Dept of Labor, 1980 average weekly earnings for non-supervisory and production workers (to leave out those accursed high wage earners some posters so despise) was $240.77. So far in 2005, it is $543.04.

So in 1980 the Atlas diesel I mentioned in an earlier post that cost $21.99 street price would have been about 9% of a week's salary for a production worker. An Atlas Trainman diesel at $55 street price in 2005 would be 10% of the week's salary for a worker making the average non-supervisory or production worker's wage.

1% difference in real cost for a vastly improved product? Sounds like the hobby is pretty cheap. Again, this is without extensive shopping around.

How about retirees? In 1980, the average social security weekly benefit to a male was $86.31. The Atlas diesel of 1980 was just over 25% of Grandpa's weekly Social Security benefit. In 2003 (the last year I had figures handy), the average weekly Social Security benefit paid to a man was $239.75. A Trainman diesel sets today's AARP member back 22.9% of the weekly benefit. Cheaper today in relative terms.

Sorry to intrude on all the gloom and doom with real data ... we now return you to the usual whining session.

Jon


There ya go John. Raining all over everyone's parade with that factal material. [:D]

I still haven't been able to convince a friend of mine that it's better to own your home outright than it is to spend $1 in mortgage interest to save 25 cents in Federal income tax (assuming you're in the 25% marginal bracket).

No mortgage. No mortgage payment. No mortgage payment, no need for income to cover mortgage payment.

Andre

Andre

It's really kind of hard to support your local hobby shop when the nearest hobby shop that's worth the name is a 150 mile roundtrip.
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Posted by ngartshore350 on Thursday, December 22, 2005 4:29 PM
The pricing is relative to the quality and detail. There have been numerous posts above looking at CPI that seem to show the prices compared to wages are comparative.

One thing we are getting is extra detail and smooth running. You look at a loco from 7 - 10 years ago and it doesn't compare to the detail you get now, some you almost don't need to touch before running them. I used to spend a fortune on Detail West products every time I bought a new loco. Now I just buy bits and pieces. But I must admit sound is expensive!

The really anying thing I find is that manufacturers seem to be running batches of products, so if you don't get one when they come out, sorry you lose, we've stopped production of that!

It makes it difficult to see what you like and save for it. If you don't get it then & there it more than likely won't be there next week.

Anybody else finding this?

NG
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Posted by selector on Thursday, December 22, 2005 4:50 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by ngartshore350

The pricing is relative to the quality and detail. There have been numerous posts above looking at CPI that seem to show the prices compared to wages are comparative.

One thing we are getting is extra detail and smooth running. You look at a loco from 7 - 10 years ago and it doesn't compare to the detail you get now, some you almost don't need to touch before running them. I used to spend a fortune on Detail West products every time I bought a new loco. Now I just buy bits and pieces. But I must admit sound is expensive!

The really anying thing I find is that manufacturers seem to be running batches of products, so if you don't get one when they come out, sorry you lose, we've stopped production of that!

It makes it difficult to see what you like and save for it. If you don't get it then & there it more than likely won't be there next week.

Anybody else finding this?

NG


Well, it limits the exposure of the company to liability if the model doesn't do well. If it does, and they announce a second run, the word-of-mouth campaign in support of the model will ensure that it also sells. It's really a win-win, when you see it that way; the company keeps a strong balance sheet, we get an initial run of a successful model, report on our enjoyment of it, and the second run is highly anticipated. BLI seems to be following this approach to an extent. I just purchased one of their second (third) runs of the all-metal K4's.
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Posted by CNJ831 on Thursday, December 22, 2005 4:51 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by alco_fan

Some posters should just stick to their repetitious warnings about the end of the hobby, because their stats work is poor.

According to the US Dept of Labor, 1980 average weekly earnings for non-supervisory and production workers (to leave out those accursed high wage earners some posters so despise) was $240.77. So far in 2005, it is $543.04.

So in 1980 the Atlas diesel I mentioned in an earlier post that cost $21.99 street price would have been about 9% of a week's salary for a production worker. An Atlas Trainman diesel at $55 street price in 2005 would be 10% of the week's salary for a worker making the average non-supervisory or production worker's wage.

1% difference in real cost for a vastly improved product? Sounds like the hobby is pretty cheap. Again, this is without extensive shopping around.

How about retirees? In 1980, the average social security weekly benefit to a male was $86.31. The Atlas diesel of 1980 was just over 25% of Grandpa's weekly Social Security benefit. In 2003 (the last year I had figures handy), the average weekly Social Security benefit paid to a man was $239.75. A Trainman diesel sets today's AARP member back 22.9% of the weekly benefit. Cheaper today in relative terms.

Sorry to intrude on all the gloom and doom with real data ... we now return you to the usual whining session.

Jon


Talk about poor stats work, Jon! How about comparing apples with apples?

For 1981 an Athearn F7, GP9, SW1500, S12, GP35 from Standard Hobby Supply were $9.69 - the U28, U30, U33B - $9.99 , while the rest of the line was under $10.50 . Athearn car kits $1.50 to $1.84 . Please, let's not forget that technological progress does actually take place in our hobby, it doesn't stand absolutely still. Items improve as technology advances. You can not make a fair price comparison of medium price range items from one era vs. extreme low end range items decades later and say, "Oh look, nothing's changed!"

Athearn offered at least standard quality items for the day back in 1981, essentially mid-range, so you would need to compare them to the mid-range, average items of today to be at all fair. That means diesel locomotives that are currently in the $85 to $120 range for street price. That's a helluva rise if you ask me! Has your salary increased 10-fold? Mine certainly hasn't!

CNJ831
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Posted by ngartshore350 on Thursday, December 22, 2005 5:51 PM


Well, it limits the exposure of the company to liability if the model doesn't do well. If it does, and they announce a second run, the word-of-mouth campaign in support of the model will ensure that it also sells. It's really a win-win, when you see it that way; the company keeps a strong balance sheet, we get an initial run of a successful model, report on our enjoyment of it, and the second run is highly anticipated. BLI seems to be following this approach to an extent. I just purchased one of their second (third) runs of the all-metal K4's.


Yes your right, it does limit their exposure. It is just annoying, when the stores run out.[:(]

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