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Lionel Centry Club 1- What happened to our investment value?

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Posted by Deputy on Friday, December 22, 2006 5:01 PM

Frank: While I agree that recently there have been more than a few posts that might be considered "anti-Lionel", I think if a survey were done for and against Lionel and MTH on THIS forum, the pro-Lionel people would far outnumber the antis. I was fairly surprised by the level of hostility from the Lionel folks when people discuss MTH on this forum. After a while I sorta understood the loyalty some folks have to Lionel. 

Now myself, I'm a neutron. I have about an equal balance of Lionel and MTH products. I don't hold any loyalty to EITHER one. I certainly have personal preferences as far as features of one manufacturer over the other. But neither one is putting any food on my table. Heck, it's the other way around!! Big Smile [:D]

Dep

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Posted by jefelectric on Friday, December 22, 2006 5:02 PM
 MartyE wrote:

One more then for you all...

 

 

Nice collection Marty.

One comment, there is still a belief among the general public that old lionel is worth it's weight in gold.  Almost weekly someone walks into one of the local train shops and wants to sell a box of old bent, dented and rusty Lionels.  They get very insulted when offered what they are worth.  Big disapointment.  Occasionally a gem does surface, but they are getting fewer and fewer.

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Posted by Dave45681 on Wednesday, December 27, 2006 5:52 PM
 Deputy wrote:

LOL...I'm with you. Dang E-Bay addiction. Here's the Century Club item I'd like to get:

8< link snipped to get rid of the horiz scroll bar >8

Gee...only going for a paltry NINE HUNDRED DOLLARS. Wonder what it cost new?

Dep

 

Sorry I am jumping in here a bit late, but I think we need to distinguish the "going" (or "sold for") prices from some sellers' "asking" prices. 

The link above seems to have ended today, and it doesn't look like it sold.

I could write a very off target price guide if I listed some of what I repeatedly see at shows (because it is lots of times priced to not move)  with the asking prices recorded as "going" or "sold for" prices.  Same for ebay auctions that end with no bids but high "buy it now" or 1st bid price.

At shows, I think the over priced dealers are just hoping for the uneducated consumer to wander past and see something he(or the spouse or kids for an even easier sell) has to have. 

On-line it's a similar fishing expedition, but with less overhead than hauling the stuff to shows all the time.

 I'll agree with some of the other sentiments too.  1) Anything made to be collectable isn't, 2) MTH Proto 1 trains have to have at least the same depreciation as Century Club issues, 3) Expecting to get "what you put in" for almost anything is unrealistic(except maybe real estate - current slump noted, but over the long (think 10 years or more) term, RE will likely appreciate unless there is a major change in the characteristic of the property due to development/neighborhood issues or disaster). 

If someone has a 1965 Corvette in showroom condition, he could probably get what he paid for it.  Then again, he probably spent more money over the last 41 years keeping it in that condition than may be easy to make up for in any current sales price.

  

-Dave

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Posted by Deputy on Thursday, December 28, 2006 9:30 AM

Dave: Glad you replied to this thread. Let's me ogle and drool over Marty's CC collection all over again Big Smile [:D] Personally, I like Marty's stuff better than some other pics of prewar locos that have frequently appeard on the forum. No offense to those who post them Wink [;)]

As to advertised and sell prices...no doubt about it people ask high for some stuff. If you track the prices of 682 locos you will see that right away. Even the junk gets a high asking price, and even if they are junk, they still sell for quite a bit. There is NOT a big selection of Lionel CC items available on E-Bay at any one time, so I suspect that raises the asking price quite a bit. Plus they are all pretty much "premium locos" that are loaded with the best options Lionel has. So that also keeps the asking price up. I am still on the hunt for a CC NYC F3. If I can find one NIB for a price I can afford, I'll grab it. Not because it's a collectors item, but because I WANT it. I think that is also the driving force for many of the prices paid on E-Bay.

As to Proto 1...I just bought an MTH FM Trainmaster in Jersey Central colors off E-Bay that has Proto 1. It has a new battery and has been run-tested for operation. I am VERY interested to hear what this loco sounds like as far as the "crew talk" and other sound options is concerned. I have heard a LOT of bad-mouthing about what Proto 1 sounds like and I'd like to form my own opinion about it. I already know what Lionel's "unintelligible crewtalk" sounds like, and it really is AWFUL. If I can just UNDERSTAND what the Proto 1 crewtalk is saying, then they are already way ahead of any of that Lionel stuff that they are STILL releasing in 2006. Eventually, I will convert the Proto 1 to Proto 2, mainly because of the increased features on Proto 2.

Dep

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Posted by daan on Thursday, December 28, 2006 9:59 AM

Hi Deputy,

The crewtalk in proto 1 contains a few randomly triggered sentences a crew member says to the control tower in neutral. Loud and clear! Also different locomotives have different messages. They tell you "track is clear" or "is that switch aligned, eeehm, it need to be lined back" and so on. You can clearly hear what they say, but the number of messages on one locomotive is very limited (3 or 4).

I'm very curious about what you think of protosound 1!

 And my two cents about investment on toy trains.. There are a few 1000 different models for sale right of the shelf today and williams also makes great reissues of postwar collectibles. But the modern remakes are NOT the same as an original one. Most people however are operators and don't want to spend a lot of money on an item if they can't run it without hesitation.

The collectors willing to pay high $ for an item are more scarce then the number of models being scarce enough to sell for high prices.. Investments never have the guarantee to be an investment, they become an investment after they are sold, not in before of it.

Otherwise making money on investments would be way too easy and money wouldn't be of any value anymore. Just plain labour guarantees money in the pocket. All the rest is plain luck!

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Posted by Dave45681 on Thursday, December 28, 2006 11:50 AM
 Deputy wrote:

......... There is NOT a big selection of Lionel CC items available on E-Bay at any one time, so I suspect that raises the asking price quite a bit. Plus they are all pretty much "premium locos" that are loaded with the best options Lionel has. So that also keeps the asking price up. I am still on the hunt for a CC NYC F3. If I can find one NIB for a price I can afford, I'll grab it. Not becasue it's a collectors item, but because I WANT it. I think that is also the driving force for many of the prices paid on E-Bay.............
Dep

Dep,

I'll certainly admit to not checking ebay as often as you for these items, so I will take your word for it on how frequently these things are offered.  My comment was just that the particular one you linked to seemed to have not sold.

I just remember many of the comments heard over the years at shows with some dealers putting the CC stuff down.  I remember one dealer even making a joke of paying $10 per pound for CC items.  I realize there are not many shows or hobby dealers where you are, I am probably almost 100% on the other side of that situation here in SE PA.  (although there are less good large shows in my immediate vicinity now that Fort Washington Expo Center is no more)

I suspect you (and myself and Marty, based on one of Marty's above comments.) are probably in that very small cross section of operators who want the classic postwar look but with all the neat gizmo's included. 

True to their word, there was never another set of PW style NYC F3s with TMCC in them made by Lionel.  For people who are not necessarily set on having PW-like (or even Lionel) items though, there were of course the scale offerings over the last few years.  And of course if you start crossing the brand lines, there are even more examples of NYC F3s with various levels of detail with either TMCC or DCS in them.

We were certainly the type of operators/collectors whom Lionel was targeting with CC I.  I think Lionel simply adjusted to the changing market with their approach for CCII, which most engines are considered desireable by the scale audience as well. (less a few people who had mechanical problems with an engine here or there, but that goes with all products today to some extent)

I think we should remember that CCI was introduced just before the explosion of product that is offered to us via catalogs each year was as vast as it is now.  It was a world with less places to spend your train dollars at that point, which gradually changed as the later CC items came about.

 

-Dave

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Posted by Deputy on Thursday, December 28, 2006 12:38 PM

daan: Thanks for that info on Proto 1. I'm still waiting for delivery of my FM, so it may be a while before I can report my opinion of it. If all the speech is clear and understandable, then I'm REALLY looking forward to it!!! Either way, I'll post an honest opinion of it in this thread (if nobody objects).

Dave: I envy where you live. I used to live in the Chicago area and train and hobby stores were VERY common. I hope that one that didn't sell gets relisted at a lower price. That's the good thing about E-Bay, you aren't limited to show dates to pick up on stuff. If a guy doesn't sell it, he can relist it for less. As a matter of fact, there IS a NYC F3 CC item listed on E-Bay right now. Current bid is $198 with only one bidder. Maybe I'll get lucky and can "vulch" it at the last minute for a fair price Big Smile [:D]. We can also track it and see what it sells for.

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=170064413417&fromMakeTrack=true

HA! I just noticed that original E-Bay F3 I posted aboiut is RELISTED FOR THE SAME PRICE!!!
LOL..."if at first you don't succeed..." Laugh [(-D]

http://cgi.ebay.com/LIONEL-CENTURY-CLUB-NEW-YORK-CENTRAL-F-3-OB-w-CASE_W0QQitemZ110072770249QQihZ001QQcategoryZ4148QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

Dep

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Posted by 3railguy on Thursday, December 28, 2006 1:10 PM
If it's made for collectors, it ain't collectible. Buy trains to run. Buy mutual funds to invest.
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Posted by Kooljock1 on Thursday, December 28, 2006 3:27 PM
A couple of things that haven't been pointed out in this thread: 1. The influence of the Post War Celebration Series. This series was in answer to the success of the original Century Club sign up rate. While CC1 engines "will never be offered again in these configurations" ie: with gold accent trim etc... Lionel can still make a #682 Turbine, #736 Berkshire, #2340 GGI etc... Savvy operators will wait for a different version to pop up in a catalog somewhere down the road. 2. The influence of technological change. When CC1 came out, Lionel state of the art was open frame universal motors tooled in the 1940's. Today there's Odyssey, CAN motors, and soon Legacy. Savvy operators will wait for the version they want with the new technology. Personally I'm waiting for a Post War style GG-1 casting with twin CAN motors and cruise control under the hood. Those twin PullMor's are just power hogs! 3. All else said, folks need to take marketing hype with a spoonfull of sugar. But if everybody did that, then folks wouldn't consider that "artist of light" dude an actual artist! And what would the people employed at the Danbury mint do without pages of Parade Magazine filled with Limited Edition "Stations of The Cross" HO Scale boxcars? Jon I apologize for the spacing. I'm a 21st Century iMac user typing in a 20th Century environment!
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Posted by Deputy on Thursday, December 28, 2006 3:40 PM

Kool: Unfortunately, some of us older geezers can't wait for Lionel to come out with another 682 turbine. So we are "unsavvy" Big Smile [:D] We have to "grab what we can WHILE we can". For younger guys, they can plan for the long range releases. I already have the two super-size versions of the 682 in the scale-size Lionel 6-38028 and Lionel 6-18010. Plus I grabbed TWO of the semi-scale MTH S2 turbines (MTH 30-1395-1). And of course, the postwar 671 and 681 turbines are in my roster. I envy the heck out of Marty's collection. While I have a very nice scale NYC A-B-A setup from MTH, I would LOVE to land the CC NYC F3s. There is actually an S2 CC 671 turbine on E-Bay right now. The price isn't horrible at $515, but no PayPal/VISA stops me from buying it.

http://cgi.ebay.com/LIONEL-18057-CC-6-8-6-671-S2-PENN-TURBINE-NEW-SEAL_W0QQitemZ110071382512QQihZ001QQcategoryZ4148QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

Dep

 

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edw
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Posted by edw on Thursday, December 28, 2006 5:13 PM

I couldn't agree more, Allan. One should only collect toy trains for the pleasure and satisfaction that comes from owning them in the present.

Unfortunately, demographics, along with the aging of the baby boomers who grew up playing with trains in their youth, practically guarantees that all but the rarest of items will be worth less in the future.

Sure, some new fans join the ranks each year, but they will never equal the number of collectors who are gradually phasing out of the hobby. Baby boomers are the ones who have been driving this industry, and statistically speaking, they have been at their peak earning years, just prior to retirement. That translated into a lot of disposable income available for discretionary spending on hobbies such as collecting toy trains. Now, however, as baby boomers begin their retirements on reduced, fixed incomes, overall spending on this hobby will decrease substantially. Not only are younger newcomers to the hobby fewer in number, but they just aren't in the same financial position to support the high prices currently being charged for state of the art trains.

As baby boomers retire and pass from the scene, expect to see more and more train collections being sold off. This, coupled with fewer new collectors, will result in an inexorable decline in the prices of toy trains in the future and the failure of many of the current manufacturers. We can think of this as the natural completion of the demographic shift that adversely affected Lionel 40 years ago. Nostalgia and lots of disposable income has fueled the renaissance of the toy train industry over the past two decades. Alas, all good things must come to an end.

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Posted by Deputy on Thursday, December 28, 2006 5:24 PM

edw: Geez....thanks for brightening up our day.

"as baby boomers begin their retirements on reduced, fixed incomes, overall spending on this hobby will decrease substantially."

Well I'm one baby boomer that has MORE money AND time to spend on trains than I did when I was working. Maybe your analysis has some flaws in it. Most of my fellow baby boomers were smart enough to put a good deal of cash away for retirement as well as invest wisely. It's the NEXT generation that is spending money faster than they earn it.

Dep

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Posted by Anonymous on Thursday, December 28, 2006 5:45 PM
 Deputy wrote:

edw: Geez....thanks for brightening up our day.

"as baby boomers begin their retirements on reduced, fixed incomes, overall spending on this hobby will decrease substantially."

Well I'm one baby boomer that has MORE money AND time to spend on trains than I did when I was working. Maybe your analysis has some flaws in it. Most of my fellow baby boomers were smart enough to put a good deal of cash away for retirement as well as invest wisely. It's the NEXT generation that is spending money faster than they earn it.

Dep

Generalizations will hurt you nearly every time... careful how you phrase things Dep.  There are some baby boomers that DID invest and lost everything (think Enron).  There are some generation Xers (myself included) that have a nice salary and therefore have a nice disposable income and can also save for retirement... or there are those of us who are fortunate enough to have found a wife who has just as nice a salary as ourselves who happen to like trains and are willing to part with some of their disposable income to purchase us nice presents...

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Posted by Kooljock1 on Thursday, December 28, 2006 6:51 PM
Dep, Notice I said savvy "Operators" not Savvy "Collectors". Collectors can and will do whatever turns them on. Operators only need one Turbine, 'cause that's all the P-Company had! Jon
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Posted by Frank53 on Thursday, December 28, 2006 7:42 PM
 edw wrote:

Unfortunately, demographics, along with the aging of the baby boomers who grew up playing with trains in their youth, practically guarantees that all but the rarest of items will be worth less in the future.

Sure, some new fans join the ranks each year, but they will never equal the number of collectors who are gradually phasing out of the hobby. Baby boomers are the ones who have been driving this industry, and statistically speaking, they have been at their peak earning years, just prior to retirement. That translated into a lot of disposable income available for discretionary spending on hobbies such as collecting toy trains. Now, however, as baby boomers begin their retirements on reduced, fixed incomes, overall spending on this hobby will decrease substantially. Not only are younger newcomers to the hobby fewer in number, but they just aren't in the same financial position to support the high prices currently being charged for state of the art trains.

As baby boomers retire and pass from the scene, expect to see more and more train collections being sold off. This, coupled with fewer new collectors, will result in an inexorable decline in the prices of toy trains in the future and the failure of many of the current manufacturers. We can think of this as the natural completion of the demographic shift that adversely affected Lionel 40 years ago. Nostalgia and lots of disposable income has fueled the renaissance of the toy train industry over the past two decades. Alas, all good things must come to an end.

Exactly teh point I was making a few weeks ago. There will always be a market for very rare and MIB material, but the sheer volume of material out there, and much of it isn't "junk" coupled with a declining collecting base equals lower prices.

As a post war operator, I welcome the declining prices.

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Posted by Deputy on Thursday, December 28, 2006 8:12 PM

 Kooljock1 wrote:
Dep, Notice I said savvy "Operators" not Savvy "Collectors". Collectors can and will do whatever turns them on. Operators only need one Turbine, 'cause that's all the P-Company had! Jon

Jon: I beg to differ. With SO MANY varieties of S2s flaoting around, you can NEVER have "enough" Big Smile [:D]. And I am an OPERATOR that will be running ALL my S2s at one time or another. Wink [;)]

S2...it's an ADDCITION Laugh [(-D]

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Posted by klahm on Saturday, December 30, 2006 9:51 PM

I bought CC-I NYC F3s for nostalgia, display, and running.  Are the more recent Lionel F3s more prototypical, detailed, etc.?  Of course!  If both were priced the same on the used market, which would I prefer?  The newer, of course!  But my CC-I ABA units are unique and nostalgic, which is worth something to me.

I bought a CC-I Pennsy GG-1 mainly as a curiousity, hoping to eventually trade it for a NYC item of similar value.  But I ended up selling it at just under half its original cost when thinning out my collection in preparation for a new house.

Others have commented on the aging of us boomers and various other phenomena, but the simple fact is that the same money now buys much better fidelity to the prototype and probably better performance, so it is no wonder that prices of "enhanced post-war" product have fallen.  Or scale product from 10-15 years ago, to wit: Lionel 700E, Weaver Dreyfus, Weaver E8s.

The prices are sustained by perceived value and rarity.  When multiple manufacturers flood the market with better product, both attributes are gone and so is the resell price.

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Posted by 3railguy on Sunday, December 31, 2006 1:07 AM

A true collector surrounds himself with trains purely for enjoyment. It can be a nostalgia trip, a fascination for trains, or whatever. He might buy shrewdly or foolishly. What really matters is he's having fun and could care less what the stuff is worth twenty years from now.

I can think of lots of ways to spend money and have absolutely nothing to show for it. For some reason, those things don't count.

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Posted by rthomps on Sunday, December 31, 2006 1:11 AM
 MartyE wrote:

One more then for you all...

 

 

 

 

THAT'S GORGEOUS!

Nice line-up!  Smile,Wink, & Grin [swg]

 

 

RT NTLB
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Posted by broadythecableguy on Sunday, January 14, 2007 11:38 PM

I would guess the cc1 hudson took a hit. The PWC Hudson has more. (Towercom, Cabchatter) it has the 700T Tender and I have seen venders sell it for under a grand with the super O set. 

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Posted by Deputy on Monday, January 15, 2007 11:26 AM

I came close to bidding on the Century Club NYC F3 I posted about earlier in this thread. I figured the price bidding would skyrocket, but it went for pretty reasonable ($356). I started comparing it to my MTH NYC F3 and the MTH just has more features and looks better (also comes with a B unit). I will still keep an eye out for a Lionel CC F3 though. I still like 'em Big Smile [:D]

Dep

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Posted by MartyE on Monday, January 15, 2007 12:12 PM
 3railguy wrote:

A true collector surrounds himself with trains purely for enjoyment. It can be a nostalgia trip, a fascination for trains, or whatever. He might buy shrewdly or foolishly. What really matters is he's having fun and could care less what the stuff is worth twenty years from now.

 You nailed that one. 

Trying to update my avatar since 2020 Laugh

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Posted by luther_stanton on Monday, January 15, 2007 8:55 PM
 Deputy wrote:

I came close to bidding on the Century Club NYC F3 I posted about earlier in this thread. I figured the price bidding would skyrocket, but it went for pretty reasonable ($356). I started comparing it to my MTH NYC F3 and the MTH just has more features and looks better (also comes with a B unit). I will still keep an eye out for a Lionel CC F3 though. I still like 'em Big Smile [:D]

Dep

Ah, alas, the MTH units will never be a Lionel CC F3!  For me, with these particular engines - NYC F3s - it is all about the the very fact that they are Lionels. Maybe one day I will take the plunge and buy an original PW setSmile [:)]

I will take my Lionel NYC F3 CCs over the MTH units any day!

- Luther 

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Posted by MartyE on Monday, January 15, 2007 9:04 PM
The CC F3s IMO have one of the best RS in the PWC types that I've heard.  The horn just has a really unique sound.  One of my favorites.

Trying to update my avatar since 2020 Laugh

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Posted by Craignor on Thursday, February 1, 2007 9:01 AM

Folks,

 I am really diggin the NYC f3. I ran one at a friends house a few weeks ago, it was sweet.

 What was the original price on that?

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Posted by MartyE on Thursday, February 1, 2007 9:17 AM

Craig

 

I want to say in the $600 range and I think the B unit was seperate.  This is one of my favorite engines.  The horn is unique to all my other PWC F3s (Southern 2356 and ACL F3).  The operation is smooth and IMO the engine if this is possible ooozzzesss Lionel PW.  I can see how you could be hooked.  I have been looking for just the right consist to run behind it. 

Trying to update my avatar since 2020 Laugh

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Posted by laz 57 on Thursday, February 1, 2007 9:34 AM

MARTY,

  What are you running behind your NYC f3s?  I am looking for passenger cars with the cigar stripe and without the silloettes of people?  Any idears?

laz57

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Posted by laz 57 on Thursday, February 1, 2007 9:35 AM

I'm also looking at the NYC F3s from 2005 on Ebay with PS2.0 for $399.

laz57

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Posted by Craignor on Thursday, February 1, 2007 9:41 AM

Folks,

 Does the CC NYC f3s have Oddyssy, crew figures, smoke, or traction tires?

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Posted by Deputy on Thursday, February 1, 2007 9:51 AM
 Craignor wrote:

Folks,

 Does the CC NYC f3s have Oddyssy, crew figures, smoke, or traction tires?

2 powerful Lionel Pullmor motors in its power unit, Lionel Command reverse unit for use with Lionel TrainMaster Command control system, Railsounds from real Electro-Motive Division F3 in non-powered unit, Magne-Traction, Die-cast electrocouplers, directional headlights, and Crewtalk in 2-part TowerCom.

have to ask Marty about the rest. Smile [:)] 

Dep

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