Amtrak Train 188 - Possibly some answers coming soon?

[samfp1943]

This morning MSN carried an Associated Press Story by Michael Sisak, about the pending release of the NTSB Preliminary Report on the crash of Train 188, May 12,2015.

linked @ http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/hope-for-answers-as-release-of-amtrak-crash-evidence-nears/ar-BBoTX4e?ocid=spartanntp

FTA:"...PHILADELPHIA (AP) — Eight months after a deadly Amtrak derailment, federal investigators are poised to release evidence and reports that could help clear up the mystery of why the train streaked into a sharp curve at double the speed limit.

The release, expected Monday [02/01/2016], will be the first major development in the investigation since a preliminary report a few weeks after the May 12 crash in which the National Transportation Safety Board pinpointed excessive speed as a key factor. A final report isn't expected for months.

The train was accelerating out of an 80 mph speed zone when it should have been slowing to 50 mph for the coming curve, investigators said. It reached 106 mph just before the engineer activated emergency brakes..."

THis should spark some more conversations on this crash around this Forum.

[Firelock76]

I wonder.  It all comes down to the engineer, what he did or didn't do, why he did what he did or didn't do, especially since he'd had a good record up to the crash and was supposed to have been familiar with the route and any speed restrictions.

I've refrained from any speculations, I certainly wasn't there, although I'm hoping for the engineer's sake there's some kind of mitigating circumstances.

[Norm48327]

Firelock76

I'm hoping for the engineer's sake there's some kind of mitigating circumstances.

It's within the realm of possibility the NTSB could recommend him for 'return to service'. They have done that for airline pilots who were cooperative in helping them find the cause of an accident. What I bolded is the key factor but it doesn't necessarily mean Amtrak would place him back in engine service.

Eagerly awaiting the preliminary and some FACTS.

[Euclid]

The report will be interesting to see because I cannot imagine any possible new revelations.  The one key revelation would be the explanation for the engineer's failure to slow for the curve, and what caused him to have memory loss.  However, I assume that the investigation has not found the answers to those questions yet, and may never find them. 

Another key revelation would be an explanation of the locomotive windshield damage.  I doubt that will be in the report. 

What will be in tomorrow's report will be the absolute ruling out of rocks or other objects being thrown and striking the locomotive.  This may have been absolutely ruled out already.  But it will be clearly stated as a conclusion in the report.   

[Leo_Ames]

What's to explain about his memory loss? 

[Euclid]

Leo_Ames

What's to explain about his memory loss? 

 

The reason why it happened, when it began, and how it affected the engineer's actions during its existence, if it began prior to the accident.

[ndbprr]

There is speculation that the hole in the windshield was from a thrown rock that hit his head causing the black out.

[Euclid]

ndbprr

There is speculation that the hole in the windshield was from a thrown rock that hit his head causing the black out.

 

There was speculation as follows:

1)   Rocks being thrown at the train.

2)   Gunshots being fired at the train.

3)   The windshield damage being caused by rocks.

4)   The windshield damage being caused by gunshots.

5)   The report of hearing a radio transmission from the engineer saying that his locomotive had been hit by rocks. 

 

 

Items #2 and #4 have been said not to have happened. 

It was said that no evidence has been found for item #5.

Items #1 and #3 have not been reported as resolved.

 

I expect tomorrow’s report to declare the following with 100% certainty:

No radio transmission by the engineer regarding thrown rocks ever happened.

Items #1-4 did not happen.

[Paul of Covington]

Euclid

 

Leo_Ames

What's to explain about his memory loss? 

 

 

 

 

The reason why it happened, when it began, and how it affected the engineer's actions during its existence, if it began prior to the accident.

 

    I think Schlimm might be able to help us on this, but it is my understanding that memory loss leading up to a traumatic event is not unusual.   Remember the crash that killed Princess Di?   As I recall, the driver in that case also had no memory of events leading up to the accident.

   Somewhere I saw or heard that the brain works with a sort of temporary memory for immediate functions and takes some time to process and sort out what it will store permanently.   In the case of a traumatic event, this process is interrupted and the last events never get stored permanently.  Anyway, that's my un-expert way of thinking of it.

[tdmidget]

There was no hole in the windshield.

It is true that the driver of the car in which Dianna died had no memory of it but that is because he was dead.

[Paul of Covington]

   OK, it appears my old mind mis-remembered, so I did a little checking.   It was bodyguard Trevor Rees-Jones that survived the wreck, not the driver.   He suffered serious head injuries and didn't recall what happened.

[Norm48327]

Euclid

I expect tomorrow’s report to declare the following with 100% certainty:

Posters expecting earth-shattering revelations from the preliminary report are likely to be disappointed.

[Norm48327]

tdmidget

It is true that the driver of the car in which Dianna died had no memory of it but that is because he was dead.

DOH! Whoda thunk?

[Euclid]

Norm48327

 

Euclid

I expect tomorrow’s report to declare the following with 100% certainty:

 

 

Posters expecting earth-shattering revelations from the preliminary report are likely to be disappointed.

 

 

Norm,

 

You forgot to finish your quote of what I said.  This is a super easy prediction.  Here it is again for your reference:

 

There was speculation as follows:

1)   Rocks being thrown at the train.

2)   Gunshots being fired at the train.

3)   The windshield damage being caused by rocks.

4)   The windshield damage being caused by gunshots.

5)   The report of hearing a radio transmission from the engineer saying that his locomotive had been hit by rocks. 

 

 

Items #2 and #4 have been said not to have happened. 

It was said that no evidence has been found for item #5.

Items #1 and #3 have not been reported as resolved.

 

I expect tomorrow’s report to declare the following with 100% certainty:

No radio transmission by the engineer regarding thrown rocks ever happened.

Items #1-4 did not happen.

[Wizlish]

Paul of Covington

I think schlimm might be able to help us on this, but it is my understanding that memory loss leading up to a traumatic event is not unusual.

I think schlimm has in fact commented on this in one of the previous threads.  Google 'retrograde amnesia' for some independent corroboration.

Not an unusual event in a combination of physical and emotional trauma, I think.  On the other hand, I believe there are other mechanisms (again, which schlimm is the best qualified here to comment on) like primacy, latency, and recency, which might tend to make some aspects of a traumatic experience more, rather than less, memorable for recall. 

The big problem here is that anything involving Bostian's mental state is basically the most extreme sort of speculation.  We can't possibly 'know', and I suspect the NTSB may not be able to 'know' either.  It's likewise speculation to muse about how the memory loss is going to be treated or handled in the various official outcomes, including what a future career with Amtrak would involve...

[Euclid]

The engineer has defined the duration of his memory loss as sees it from the perspective of the time after the derailment occurred.  He said that his memory loss extended from the point of leaving the last station up to the point where the derailment ended.  This means that the engineer may have had a loss of memory during this time period; or may have been functioning perfectly normal during this period.  If it were the latter, then the memory loss occurred after this period, and then extended back through it retroactively. 

So, this raises the question of what the locomotive data recorder can tell us about the engineer’s performance during the time span of the memory loss.

For instance, if the recorder shows a variety of several different proper responses on the part of the engineer, it reinforces the possibility that his mental state was normal during the time that he now cannot remember. 

However, if the data recorder shows improper, unusual, or failed response on the part of the engineer during this period which he now cannot remember, it suggests that might have been affected during this timeframe by the conditions related to his present inability to remember it.

I hope that today’s report will fully detail what the data recorder shows during the timeframe that the engineer says he cannot remember.      

[Wizlish]

There is another piece of data that would 'corroborate' any evidence from the recorders, a piece of information which I continue to think is more significant as evidence of a 'thinking' state.  (Evidence of brake and throttle actuation isn't exactly proof of 'consciousness', as I distinctly recall from the history of 'sleepy' crew behavior we've run through in various threads...)

Remember the witness testimony of the series of staccato horn bursts that took place immediately before the crash?  I do not think those came from any 'work crew' or switching vehicles; that was the engineer of 188 warning anyone that the juggernaut was off the rails...

[Euclid]

Wizlish,

I understand and agree with your point that proper operational responses from the engineer during the lost memory phase are not proof of unimpaired mental condition because these responses can be more or less performed unconsciously, as you say.  However, improper or no responses when required would be evidence of impaired mental condition. 

The emergency horn signal as the derailment commenced was certainly a clear and proper response, and so was the application of the brakes into “Emergency.”  But these proper responses were at the point where the memory lapse is thought to have ended.  So they do not indicate anything about mental impairment during the phase of memory lapse.     

[schlimm]

Wizlish

The big problem here is that anything involving Bostian's mental state is basically the most extreme sort of speculation.  We can't possibly 'know', and I suspect the NTSB may not be able to 'know' either.

We certainly cannot know.  The investigators, if able to examine Bostian with appropriate experts, might be able to make some more knowledgeable conclusions.

[petitnj]

Reading through the reports, does anyone see any new information that was relevant to the accident? It looks like the engineer lost awareness for some time before realizing he entered the slow order. Lots of details but no useful information.

NTSB Report 

[wanswheel]

petitnj

NTSB Report 

Bostian interview, May 15

http://dms.ntsb.gov/pubdms/search/document.cfm?docID=436072&docketID=58167&mkey=91159

“Unfortunately, the last memory I have on the way back is approaching and passing the platforms in North Philadelphia. I remember turning on the bell, and the next thing that I remember is when I came to my senses I was standing up in the locomotive cab after the accident.”

 

Bostian interview, Nov. 10

http://dms.ntsb.gov/pubdms/search/document.cfm?docID=436074&docketID=58167&mkey=91159

 

“The memory I think I may have from that night was that I came out of the 65 mile an hour curve. I pushed the throttle forward to accelerate my train. And as I approached 70 miles an hour, I have a memory I backed off the throttle by mistake because I was targeting 70 miles an hour instead of 80 miles an hour. And as I approached 70 miles an hour, I have  a memory that I took action to bring the train up to 70  miles an hour. And I have a memory that I realized my mistake, that I should have been operating at 80 miles an hour. And that I pushed the throttle forward in order to accelerate from 70 to 80.   And I don't remember anything from that point until after the train was already in the curve. And again, with that memory of bringing the train to 70, realizing a mistake and then making an attempt to bring the train from 70 to 80. There's a very good possibility that could have occurred on a previous trip because that sort of mistake is something that could have happened on any trip. So I don't know. I can't tell you with accuracy, with certainty that that was on the night of the accident. But in my mind, that's what I believe. That's when I believe that memory was from. As I said, once I pushed the throttle forward in an attempt to bring the train up to 80 miles an hour, I don't have any other memories until after the train was already in the curve. And the memory that happened from that point was, the memory from there is very vague. The only word, and I hesitate to use the word dream-like because it sounds like I was asleep and I don't believe that I was asleep at all. But kind of a very foggy memory as in I don't have, the memory doesn't includes much visual memory. I don't remember hearing much. It was more of a feeling. I remember feeling my body lurch to the right, towards the right side of the engine. I remember feeling as though I was going too fast around a curve. In response to that feeling, I put the train brake on, made about a ten pound application of the brake. On a normal operating day, that would be my normal response to slowing down the train for a normal speed reduction. Would be to put a ten pound application of the brake on, give it about maybe five or ten seconds for the brakes to apply. And then apply the brakes further to make a smooth brake application for comfortable train handling. Very soon -- this again, I don't know if this memory is accurate. But my memory is, very quickly after I made that ten pound reduction, I realized from the force on my body, I realized that this is something that's very serious and I need to bring down the train speed quickly. And so, almost immediately after I made that ten pound reduction, I went to full service on the brakes which would be, you know, I need to slow down this train quickly, right now. At some point after I made that reduction of the brake, from my memory, I felt a sensation of the fireman's side of the locomotive lifting up. In other words, the train felt, the engine felt as though it were tilting over. But I remember taking a few seconds -- I say seconds, I don't mean that literally. I don't know how long it physically took me to realize. But it felt like it took some amount of time for me to realize the sensation, put together that the sensation of the fireman's side of the engine tilting up really meant that the train engine was tilting over. And that's when I realized that it wasn't that the train was going somewhat fast around the curve. The train was going significantly fast around the curve. And that's when I put the train into emergency."

 

[Euclid]

That is an amazing interview from 11/10.  I am surprised to see it in the report.

In a recent post by David Schanoes, he blasted the NYT for being too dramatic in the synopsis of the wreck a few days earlier than this report.  Yet the above interview paints a very dramatic picture.

[Euclid]

As I understand it, the engineer had been traveling at a speed lower than the 80 mph limit on the line leading to the curve.  Nearer the curve, the speed limit drops to 50 mph for the curve itself. 

But the engineer had not yet reached the 50 mph speed limit territory when he decided to accelerate to that 80 mph speed limit.  Then apparently, the engineer never reduced the throttle when he reached the 80 mph limit, and then made no attempt to reduce speed to the 50 mph limit nearer to the curve.  In other words, he began accelerating with the intent to reach 80 mph and level off, but he continued to accelerate past 80 mph to reach 102 mph.  And during this same time, the speed limit dropped from 80 mph to 50 mph. 

I am not sure if this information is in the report, but here is what I would like to know: 

What is the elapsed time and distance from the point where the engineer decided to accelerate up to 80 mph and the point where the 50 mph limit begins?  What was the speed limit prior to his decision to accelerate up to 80 mph?

A clear, graphic layout of this whole sequence of speed limits, and actual train speed during the last few miles approaching the curve would be very helpful. 

[samfp1943]

wanswheel

 

petitnj

NTSB Report 

 

 

 

Bostian interview, May 15

http://dms.ntsb.gov/pubdms/search/document.cfm?docID=436072&docketID=58167&mkey=91159

“Unfortunately, the last memory I have on the way back is approaching and passing the platforms in North Philadelphia. I remember turning on the bell, and the next thing that I remember is when I came to my senses I was standing up in the locomotive cab after the accident.”

 

Bostian interview, Nov. 10

http://dms.ntsb.gov/pubdms/search/document.cfm?docID=436074&docketID=58167&mkey=91159

 

“The memory I think I may have from that night was that I came out of the 65 mile an hour curve. I pushed the throttle forward to accelerate my train. And as I approached 70 miles an hour, I have a memory I backed off the throttle by mistake because I was targeting 70 miles an hour instead of 80 miles an hour. And as I approached 70 miles an hour, I have  a memory that I took action to bring the train up to 70  miles an hour. And I have a memory that I realized my mistake, that I should have been operating at 80 miles an hour. And that I pushed the throttle forward in order to accelerate from 70 to 80.   And I don't remember anything from that point until after the train was already in the curve. And again, with that memory of bringing the train to 70, realizing a mistake and then making an attempt to bring the train from 70 to 80. There's a very good possibility that could have occurred on a previous trip because that sort of mistake is something that could have happened on any trip. So I don't know. I can't tell you with accuracy, with certainty that that was on the night of the accident. But in my mind, that's what I believe. That's when I believe that memory was from. As I said, once I pushed the throttle forward in an attempt to bring the train up to 80 miles an hour, I don't have any other memories until after the train was already in the curve. And the memory that happened from that point was, the memory from there is very vague. The only word, and I hesitate to use the word dream-like because it sounds like I was asleep and I don't believe that I was asleep at all. But kind of a very foggy memory as in I don't have, the memory doesn't includes much visual memory. I don't remember hearing much. It was more of a feeling. I remember feeling my body lurch to the right, towards the right side of the engine. I remember feeling as though I was going too fast around a curve. In response to that feeling, I put the train brake on, made about a ten pound application of the brake. On a normal operating day, that would be my normal response to slowing down the train for a normal speed reduction. Would be to put a ten pound application of the brake on, give it about maybe five or ten seconds for the brakes to apply. And then apply the brakes further to make a smooth brake application for comfortable train handling. Very soon -- this again, I don't know if this memory is accurate. But my memory is, very quickly after I made that ten pound reduction, I realized from the force on my body, I realized that this is something that's very serious and I need to bring down the train speed quickly. And so, almost immediately after I made that ten pound reduction, I went to full service on the brakes which would be, you know, I need to slow down this train quickly, right now. At some point after I made that reduction of the brake, from my memory, I felt a sensation of the fireman's side of the locomotive lifting up. In other words, the train felt, the engine felt as though it were tilting over. But I remember taking a few seconds -- I say seconds, I don't mean that literally. I don't know how long it physically took me to realize. But it felt like it took some amount of time for me to realize the sensation, put together that the sensation of the fireman's side of the engine tilting up really meant that the train engine was tilting over. And that's when I realized that it wasn't that the train was going somewhat fast around the curve. The train was going significantly fast around the curve. And that's when I put the train into emergency."

 

 

Thanks, Mike (wanswheel) for the informative links:  In the first link Engineer Bastian seems to perfectly describe what used to be referred to as a "MicroNap", now referred to as a " MicroSleep".

See partial description here: "...Microsleeps are brief, unintended episodes of loss of attention associated with events such as blank stare, head snapping, and prolonged eye closure which may occur when a person is fatigued but trying to stay awake to perform a monotonous task like driving a car or watching a computer screen.  These are potentially among the most dangerous consequences of insomnia.

Microsleep episodes last from a few seconds to two minutes, and often the person is not aware that a microsleep has occurred. In fact, microsleeps often occur when a person's eyes are open. While in a microsleep, a person fails to respond to outside information. A person will not see a red signal light or notice that the road has taken a curve, which is why this phenomenon is of particular interest to people who study drowsy driving. During a microsleep, a pilot might not be aware of flashing alarm lights in the cockpit..."

This description (partial) is from this source @ http://www.sleepdex.org/microsleep.htm

Before retiring from Tucking ( transportation safety) The explanations for what were then referred to as micro naps was just being discussed and efforts to research it were just getting to be funded. It was then thought that it was a rational explanation for incidents of trucks rear-ending other vehicles which may or may not have been stopped in travel lanes; as well as incidents that had been described as 'inattentive driving'.

[wanswheel]

Sam, I'm doubting Bostian was relaxed enough to fall asleep, because he seems to have been highly stimulated by the SEPTA train incident in both interviews.

[tree68]

wanswheel

Sam, I'm doubting Bostian was relaxed enough to fall asleep, because he seems to have been highly stimulated by the SEPTA train incident in both interviews.

I don't think that microsleeps require being relaxed.  My mother voluntarily quit driving because she was experiencing something along that line.  She was riding with me one time and announced that it had just happened - a complete "blackout" even though her eyes were open...

Another term that probably fits the description (and may be the same thing) is being "zoned out."

I think many of us have experienced it - suddenly realizing that we don't recall having passed a certain familiar landmark, even though we know that we had to have done so to get where we are...

 

[samfp1943]

wanswheel

Sam, I'm doubting Bostian was relaxed enough to fall asleep, because he seems to have been highly stimulated by the SEPTA train incident in both interviews.

 

Mike(Wanswheel)l:  My own personal experience is that a microsleep is a result of what some refer to as a 'sleep debt', it can be caused by repetive conditons(boring activity). (ie): Long hours of driving in low traffic, or night-time conditions,( simply, driving in the rain with the wipers creating a monotenous motion in the vision field); even driving into a sunrise or even low setting sun will do it for me.

Regardless, the MicroSleep is an unconscious-level perception in the individual's brain; coupled with  that individual's sleep debt.   Whatever, the'tool'( be it a microsleep, or a 'flench' motion, a brain chooses to use to 'protect the individual, and to correct the then current problem/deficit(?)  present with that particular individual. All seems to function in a sub-conscious level in the affected individual.

[tree68]

I was looking through an older issue of Trains or Classic Trains the other day and ran across the story of an engineer who was running a freight, at speed, and apparently asleep.  Nonetheless, according to the author of the story, he never missed a crossing.  He'd wake, blow for the crossing, and be out again...

[samfp1943]

tree68

I was looking through an older issue of Trains or Classic Trains the other day and ran across the story of an engineer who was running a freight, at speed, and apparently asleep.  Nonetheless, according to the author of the story, he never missed a crossing.  He'd wake, blow for the crossing, and be out again...

 

I donknow,Larry (tree68):        The human brain is quite amazing at times!     20+ years OTR taught me how to 'sleep' in many uncomfortable conditions.   Individual reactions to stimulus can be violent, at times, and then sudued, depending on the circumstances one can find themselves in.

My son was a firefighter in a community East of Memphis, I've seen them so busy under unusual circumstances (weather) the crew chose to sleep in turnouts in their truck. Then go to a scene, and pile out looking like zombies, but quickly able to react, and do their jobs. with precision. Amazing! 

[tree68]

samfp1943

Individual reactions to stimulus can be violent, at times, and then sudued, depending on the circumstances one can find themselves in.

Had a friend who put a few holes in his wall when suddenly wakened...

My son was a firefighter in a community East of Memphis, I've seen them so busy under unusual circumstances (weather) the crew chose to sleep in turnouts in their truck.

I recall reading once that boxers were sometimes known to be able to take a "power nap" before a match.