There was a time when I worked a 12 hour shift--three days one week and four days the next week. The pay evened outto a little over forty hours a week. Thus, with four shifts, the work went on twenty-four hours a day and seven days a week. There were some processes which would be begun on one shift and finished on the next shift.
Johnny
BaltACDI am familiar with the three 12 hour days - in a 24/7 enviornment - which is actually a 48 hours in 7 days schedule.
While I don't have any specifics, I got the feeling that this was attempted in a 9-5, 40 hour week environment - maybe a warehouse, or administrative setting.
The fire service has a wide variety of work schedules ranging from 8 hour shifts to 24 on - 24 off, to multi-days on followed by multi-days off, and myriad other arrangements. Most end up with a greater than 40 hour week, but that is addressed in their contracts so doesn't always mean overtime.
Larry Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date Come ride the rails with me! There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...
I also have worked a "3 & 3", three 12 hour days, three days off, three 12 hour nights, three days off or a three on - three off straight days or straight nights. Very efficient, takes 4 people to cover 24x7 (plus another .5 FTE to be vacation relief). I liked it, my family hated it.
Dave H. Painted side goes up. My website : wnbranch.com
CMStPnP MidlandMike You need to show that all freight transport is down before you cane make conclusions about the overall economy. You have posted that more than once and I was pointing out it is incorrect. If loose comments about natural gas prices and trucking rates represent a unit of measure equal to rail carloads broken down monthly by frieght category......then more power to you. When you see automobiles and furniture transported down a pipeline in a slurry, let me know.......I want to see pictures of that. I would even settle for new automobiles delivered via barge. So maybe you could also conclude because of the consumer basket of goods carried by the rails they are included as a unit of measure of the economy? They do not look at pipeline or waterway traffic, as I stated before. Also rail's market share on a ton-mile basis year over year currently is increasing not decreasing and rail is still the most dominant part of the pie. Forecasts of increase of rail freight of up to 35 percent by 2050 over today's figures, given current population growth patterns.
MidlandMike You need to show that all freight transport is down before you cane make conclusions about the overall economy.
You have posted that more than once and I was pointing out it is incorrect.
If loose comments about natural gas prices and trucking rates represent a unit of measure equal to rail carloads broken down monthly by frieght category......then more power to you. When you see automobiles and furniture transported down a pipeline in a slurry, let me know.......I want to see pictures of that. I would even settle for new automobiles delivered via barge. So maybe you could also conclude because of the consumer basket of goods carried by the rails they are included as a unit of measure of the economy? They do not look at pipeline or waterway traffic, as I stated before.
Also rail's market share on a ton-mile basis year over year currently is increasing not decreasing and rail is still the most dominant part of the pie. Forecasts of increase of rail freight of up to 35 percent by 2050 over today's figures, given current population growth patterns.
By "loose comments" you are apparently referring the quotes from the Fed's BeigeBook (the reference you suggested). If they put it in their "Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions" I am going to take it as meaningful. They preface the summary with "Commonly known as the Beige Book, this report is published eight times per year. Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions in its District through reports from Bank and Branch directors and interviews with key business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources." the key word being anecdotal.
In my posts I mention trucking as well as pipelines & waterways, so your comment about sending autos down a pipeline just moves your arguing from trivializing to ridiculous. Additionally, while the Commodity Flow Survey 2012 (latest available) shows that both rail and truck market share ton-miles at about equal at 40% each, the value of what trucks haul is multiple times the value of what rail hauls. (Table 1a.) Warning, the PDF is over 300 pages long:
https://www.census.gov/econ/cfs/2012/ec12tcf-us.pdf
But rather than argue about what modes are predictive of economic activity, I will circle back to the original thesis of the thread, does rail activity=economic activity? Despite car loadings being off, if we listen to the Federal Reserve in their latest July 2016 BeigeBook, "Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicate that economic activity continued to expand at a modest pace across most regions from mid-May through the end of June. "
MidlandMikeAdditionally, while the Commodity Flow Survey 2012 (latest available) shows that both rail and truck market share ton-miles at about equal at 40% each, the value of what trucks haul is multiple times the value of what rail hauls. (Table 1a.) Warning, the PDF is over 300 pages long:
It shows really useful information. As you say, in ton-miles, the shares for rail and truck are very similar: 40.8% vs 42%. But based on value of what is shipped, rail's share is only 3.4% vs truck's 73.1%. Pipeline and air both have similar shares: 3.9% and 3.3%. And the value trend is worse for rail, comparing 2007 with 2012: up 21.6% vs truck's growth of 7.3%.
If coal continues to decline, unless the rails can find a way to recapture more of higher value freight, growth will be more limited or even negative, even in a modestly growing but changing economy. They clearly need more marketing folks like greyhounds, who has a creative vision.
C&NW, CA&E, MILW, CGW and IC fan
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MidlandMike But rather than argue about what modes are predictive of economic activity, I will circle back to the original thesis of the thread, does rail activity=economic activity? Despite car loadings being off, if we listen to the Federal Reserve in their latest July 2016 BeigeBook, "Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicate that economic activity continued to expand at a modest pace across most regions from mid-May through the end of June. "
I believe that rail activity does equal economic activity as I stated in my original thesis. I also said this:
“Which of these is true [good or bad economy] depends on each person’s individual point of view. It can be fact checked, but there are enough published facts to support either viewpoint. So I see it as a personal choice.”
The question of the state of the economy cannot possibly be neutral. You can look out the window and tell if it is raining, but you cannot look out the window and see the state of the economy. The state of the economy is mostly a matter of personal perception just like the state of joy. But unlike the perception of joy, the perception of the economy is subject to powerful forces that want to influence peoples’ perception of the economy. People in power gain or lose power according to the public’s mere perception of the health of the economy. Elections are won or lost according to that simple perception. So there are powerful reasons to “spin” the economic news.
In forming a personal perception of the economy, one can listen to the always nebulous statistics that may or may not be spin. Or one can look at the world around them and observe what happens when they look for jobs, or observe 292 expensive Union Pacific locomotives parked dead because there is nothing for them to haul. In my opinion, the message the park locomotives send is not spin.
For the first time in a very long time something unusual happened in the intermodal sector: total quarterly volume dropped for the first time after 25 quarters of consecutive growth.
That is the word from the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA) in its Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics Report that was released yesterday.....
Intermodal Marketing Companies (IMC) saw strong gains on the highway side, with highway loads up 17.0 percent to 432,239, and highway revenue up 3.8 percent to $599,722,060, although average highway revenue per load was down 11.3 percent to $1,369. Conversely, intermodal loads dropped 18.1 percent to 408,868, and revenue was down 8.9 percent to $1,044,624,006, while average per intermodal load was up 11.3 percent to $2,555.
IMC highway gains continue to benefit from excess trucking capacity and low fuel prices. When asked if this trend has staying power for the coming quarters, Casey said that may not necessarily be the case, as over-the-road capacity pressures are expected to increase due to regulations, through 2017 and fuel prices have started to move upward, albeit slightly, with both of these factors point to increased opportunities for domestic intermodal services.
http://www.logisticsmgmt.com/article/iana_reports_first_quarterly_decline_in_25_quarters/railfreight
MidlandMikeBy "loose comments" you are apparently referring the quotes from the Fed's BeigeBook (the reference you suggested). If they put it in their "Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions" I am going to take it as meaningful. They preface the summary with "Commonly known as the Beige Book, this report is published eight times per year. Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions in its District through reports from Bank and Branch directors and interviews with key business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources." the key word being anecdotal. In my posts I mention trucking as well as pipelines & waterways, so your comment about sending autos down a pipeline just moves your arguing from trivializing to ridiculous. Additionally, while the Commodity Flow Survey 2012 (latest available) shows that both rail and truck market share ton-miles at about equal at 40% each, the value of what trucks haul is multiple times the value of what rail hauls. (Table 1a.) Warning, the PDF is over 300 pages long: https://www.census.gov/econ/cfs/2012/ec12tcf-us.pdf But rather than argue about what modes are predictive of economic activity, I will circle back to the original thesis of the thread, does rail activity=economic activity? Despite car loadings being off, if we listen to the Federal Reserve in their latest July 2016 BeigeBook, "Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicate that economic activity continued to expand at a modest pace across most regions from mid-May through the end of June. "
Census surveys are used to measure long term demographics and demographic shifts not Economic activity. Further the use of census tracts has to be verified against a secondary source because they are based on a partial survey even though they try to reach everyone......usually they do not. So it is also an extrapolation based on whatever someone writes down on a form and mails in.
This particular census is only performed every 5 years and is extrapolated from a sampling vs a comprehensive reporting as is the AAR freight carloads. It does not admit to cover every shipment or every establishment that ships. Further, it is not audited that I can see. AAR shipments are based on what the Frieght railroads report on their Balance sheets and is audited. So lets see one a week vs once every 5 years (with 2 years additional to compile). Gee I think I will stick with the AAR reporting..........and the Fed does as well for a measure of the economy.
As for your truck and rail market share.......pretty sure the rails still have the trucks beat on ton miles carried. For one, a huge chunck of rail freight share in the commodity survey is discarded as they throw out all rail freight that is carried from border to border or coast to coast and not bound for the United States (or so they presume......shipment destinations are sometimes switched in transit by the shipper). Thats just one portion of the frieght shipments they throw out that the rails carry with their comparisons.
So much of the figures you stated are open to question or are misleading including the split between truck and rail. I stand by the market share percentages I posed earlier as the census likely has garbage in it and more so than the AAR stats as I know it is what the Fed uses. You can Google the internet and find other sources to contradict but none of them are as reliable, as frequent, and probably also not audited like the AAR figures are.
BTW, in regards to: "Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicate that economic activity continued to expand at a modest pace across most regions from mid-May through the end of June. "
Adjusting for a seasonal dip (thats called seasonal adjustment ), doesn't that prognosis also match frieght car loadings as well?.....
https://www.aar.org/pages/freight-rail-traffic-data.aspx
Note the quote is not comparing this year vs last year, it is just commenting on month to month.
EuclidI believe that rail activity does equal economic activity as I stated in my original thesis. I also said this: “Which of these is true [good or bad economy] depends on each person’s individual point of view. It can be fact checked, but there are enough published facts to support either viewpoint. So I see it as a personal choice.”
I would agree. Some feel 1-2% GDP Growth is the new normal and they think it is just great. However, in their mind.......that is where it ends. When you look more in depth at it, you can see there are downstream issues to that approach.
* Much reduced retirement savings across the board for the same amount of years money saved. Downstream this means a far less wealthier United States.....massive loss of the middle class to lower income groups.
* Job growth half of what it really should be with a structural unemployment rate built in that is viewed as acceptable.
* Inability to service the National Debt or pay it down meaningfully, also the risk when Interest rates do rise that further deep cuts in other parts of the budget will be needed to service the debt (increased interest payment). Major fiscal crisis or day of reckoning with no bail out money or stimulus because there is no money left.
Thats where the "new normal" of GDP growth is leading us all at some point.
BTW, American Trucking Association claim they haul approx 70% of all frieght in the United States...........which if it was true, we would be having a much larger issue with worn out infrastructure.
Rio Grande Valley, CFI,CFII
CMStPnP, you make a good case for the reliability of the AAR stats. Nevertheless, the CFS is a joint project between the Census Bureau and DOT. DOT uses those stats in some of their publications, along with AAR stats. Since they handle all modes of transportation, they are in a position to give market share info. Whereas AAR gives only the rail side of the story, whose stats do you use to reference market share. Also you mention that you gave market share percentages in an earlier post, but the only reference I can find is " rail is still the most dominant part of the pie." Can you post a link to your preferred modal market share breakdown.
MidlandMike CMStPnP, you make a good case for the reliability of the AAR stats. Nevertheless, the CFS is a joint project between the Census Bureau and DOT. DOT uses those stats in some of their publications, along with AAR stats. Since they handle all modes of transportation, they are in a position to give market share info. Whereas AAR gives only the rail side of the story, whose stats do you use to reference market share. Also you mention that you gave market share percentages in an earlier post, but the only reference I can find is " rail is still the most dominant part of the pie." Can you post a link to your preferred modal market share breakdown.
Right here. FRA of course.....which the internet domain indicates is part of the DOT.
https://www.fra.dot.gov/Page/P0362
CMStPnP Euclid I believe that rail activity does equal economic activity as I stated in my original thesis. I also said this: “Which of these is true [good or bad economy] depends on each person’s individual point of view. It can be fact checked, but there are enough published facts to support either viewpoint. So I see it as a personal choice.” * Much reduced retirement savings across the board for the same amount of years money saved. Downstream this means a far less wealthier United States.....massive loss of the middle class to lower income groups. * Job growth half of what it really should be with a structural unemployment rate built in that is viewed as acceptable. * Inability to service the National Debt or pay it down meaningfully, also the risk when Interest rates do rise that further deep cuts in other parts of the budget will be needed to service the debt (increased interest payment). Major fiscal crisis or day of reckoning with no bail out money or stimulus because there is no money left. Thats where the "new normal" of GDP growth is leading us all at some point.
Euclid I believe that rail activity does equal economic activity as I stated in my original thesis. I also said this: “Which of these is true [good or bad economy] depends on each person’s individual point of view. It can be fact checked, but there are enough published facts to support either viewpoint. So I see it as a personal choice.”
Some people seem to believe that the state of the economy is just a natural phenomenon. Others believe the economy is guided by economic policies. So if the economy is poor, it must mean that the policies reflect incompetence.
It has to be incompetence because it cannot be intentional. Very few would conclude that a poor economy is intentionally caused. Why would anybody actually want a sluggish economy and apply policies that lead to that result?
Therefore, it raises the question of why there should be a so-called “new normal” of economic growth limited to 1-2%. What would cause a permanently repressed economy? Is the new normal due to the anticipation of a permanent progression of incompetent economic policies? Or does it mean that economic policy makers have discovered a harm in too much economic growth?
In the past, we have only been concerned if the economy is not growing enough. Nobody ever thought there could be too much growth. Who couldn’t use a little more prosperity? Yet, what is notable about the new normal is that its rate is significantly lower than typical economic performance of the past.
If the economy is truly on its own to vary as it naturally does, why should there be any normal? An economic “normal” implies that there is a proper amount of economic growth. That is precisely what is behind the emerging tendency to refer to the very limited economic growth that we have had for the last eight years as the “new normal.”
One of the greatest buzzwords today is sustainability. It refers to living within the boundaries of a supposed limit of the earth and other natural systems to replenish themselves.
Just as burning fossil a fuel is unsustainable for the planet, so is economic growth. Hence we have the emerging umbrella economic-ideological movement known as DEGROWTH. It aims to correct the sin of living beyond the limits of sustainability.
http://clubfordegrowth.org/our_philosophy/
Quote from the link:
Degrowth is the intentional redirection of economies away from the perpetual pursuit of growth.For economies beyond the limits of their ecological systems–which includes not just the United States but all “developed” countries–this will mean a planned and controlled contraction to get back in line with planetary boundaries, with the eventual creation of a steady-state economic system that is in balance with Earth’s limits, once the degrowth process finishes and a stable population level is achieved.
CMStPnPBTW, American Trucking Association claim they haul approx 70% of all frieght in the United States...........which if it was true, we would be having a much larger issue with worn out infrastructure.
How you measure freight hauled can change conclusions dramatically. While ton-miles is probably the most standard measure, value of freight originated, revenue due to freight haulage, and tonnage initiated all give different perspectives. The ATA figure represents tonnage originated, and is correct. This reflects the fact that the vast majority of loads in the US travel very short distances. Since rail is not competive until length of haulage gets to at least several hundred miles, trucks get the vast majority of loads.
Euclid- These people need to go outside and get some fresh air. Come up here to get some perspective on things. Not a clue.
This kind of thinking is against human nature.
I scanned thru the Fed's latest (July) BeigeBook to see if I could find the answer to the question of whether they use truck traffic volumes. Some but not all Districts mention the rail volume changes, but fewer mention trucks, and sometimes more anecdotally. I did find one (Dallas) that was more specific: "Cargo volumes were mixed over the reporting period. Chemical plant expansion along the Gulf Coast boosted truck cargo volumes, while declines in courier and air cargo were reported. Overall rail cargo dipped as well; however, grain shipments rose strongly, leading to increased optimism in outlooks. Airline passenger demand was stable over the reporting period but slightly lower than a year ago."
I also realize why they do not use pipeline volumes. They use the more appropriate production and refinery utilization as economic measurements. They also use rig counts which is really more a traditional (but less useful) oil field fixture that we in the industry have always kept track of.
Miningman Euclid- These people need to go outside and get some fresh air. Come up here to get some perspective on things. Not a clue. This kind of thinking is against human nature.
Miningman,
Yes, degrowth is indeed against human nature. But the people who promote it have a strong need to control others. Unfortunately, that is part of human nature.
Totalitarianism has many branches that all have their roots in evil.
Thanks Euclid. I'm sure we all have fears, worries and doubts about the future yet it is always the positive advancements that astound us all and we keep on keeping on!
Sorry to sound a religious-flavored note, since I hate religious fundamentalism in all its forms. (If there's one thing there's no excuse for being dogmatic about, in my opinion, it's the Great Mysteries.) But I think we are in the Last Days of First Worldism, if you will.
240 years of government have finally succeeded in strangling us in law and regulation, and in bankrupting us with raids on the public treasury for this interest and that. There's no turning back, short of revolution, and talk of that will land you in jail in the U.S. as surely as it does in any Third World country.
In November, we're getting ready to do it to ourselves again. Our excuse will be that Trump is too crude for polite palates. When we have rejected Republican alternatives to more socialism along with Trump -- thrown out the baby with the bathwater -- we will have just about sealed our fate.
Railroads? An incidental casualty.
dakotafred Sorry to sound a religious-flavored note, since I hate religious fundamentalism in all its forms. (If there's one thing there's no excuse for being dogmatic about, in my opinion, it's the Great Mysteries.) But I think we are in the Last Days of First Worldism, if you will. 240 years of government have finally succeeded in strangling us in law and regulation, and in bankrupting us with raids on the public treasury for this interest and that. There's no turning back, short of revolution, and talk of that will land you in jail in the U.S. as surely as it does in any Third World country. In November, we're getting ready to do it to ourselves again. Our excuse will be that Trump is too crude for polite palates. When we have rejected Republican alternatives to more socialism along with Trump -- thrown out the baby with the bathwater -- we will have just about sealed our fate. Railroads? An incidental casualty.
Good Lord! Are you fixin' to shoot yourself?
_____________
"A stranger's just a friend you ain't met yet." --- Dave Gardner
I don't think dakotafred is overstating the problem at all. Once you lose it, it won't come back. It's a tipping point.
Here is another article that was embedded in the one I linked to the original post. It concerns the two opposing economic perceptions that I mentioned.
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/04/29/per-capita-gdp-falls-in-first-quarter-why-economy-feels-lousier-than-gdp/
Euclid I don't think dakotafred is overstating the problem at all. Once you lose it, it won't come back. It's a tipping point.
I've been hearing the same crap for the past two decades (and I'm sure some older members for far longer than that). Amazing any of us are here at all. 8 years of Obama, and the sun still rises and we are still here. Many thought that wouldn't be the case.
Drama queens.
The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer, any other railroad, company, or person.
Oh we will all still be here. That is not the problem.
Ahh, Where is Henny Penny when we need her. The sky is falling isn't it?
Euclid, one's view on the economy certainly may depend on one's personal economic circumstances. However, that will probably result in a very subjective conclusion. I look for more of a deliberative view as might be found in the Fed's publication discussed in this thread. The Federal Reserve is an independent agency, whose officers are picked in staggered sessions that overlap political terms, so that each party in power has had a chance to appoint some of the Fed's members. You were concerned about spin, and the Fed's make-up containing people from different political spectrums would tend to somewhat cancel the worst spin. However, you quote the Club for Growth, which is a libertarian billionaires PAC, where the spin is so far out, that you lose credibility for anti-spin.
[quote user="CMStPnP"]
"BTW, American Trucking Association claim they haul approx 70% of all frieght in the United States...........which if it was true, we would be having a much larger issue with worn out infrastructure."
Hmmm, so the AAR's (an industry trade group) numbers are totally trustworthy but the ATA's (another trade group) numbers are suspect? You just demonstrated the OP's comment about how everyone sees what they want to see in statistics. Good job...
Injuns
MidlandMikeYou were concerned about spin, and the Fed's make-up containing people from different political spectrums would tend to somewhat cancel the worst spin. However, you quote the Club for Growth, which is a libertarian billionaires PAC, where the spin is so far out, that you lose credibility for anti-spin.
Midland Mike,
No, I did not quote the Club for Growth. I quoted the Club for Degrowth. I just wanted to illustrate this relatively new ideology that finds a solid new reason for the well-established resentment in some circles, of competition, success, achievement, and prosperity, through hard work and economic growth. Their new reason to reject those things is that the planet and its natural systems cannot replenish fast enough to sustain an expanding economy.
I just wanted to show that there actually are reasons why public officials might embrace economic policies that intentionally hold the economy down. Such policies might explain why some are referring to this last eight years of stagnant economy as the “new normal.” That is music to the ears of the Degrowthers.
From the link:
“As part of the degrowth movement, we believe that through a voluntary reduction of the economy, we can work less, consume less and live better, fuller, and most importantly sustainable lives.”
They also believe that the “voluntary reduction” should be coerced by regulation.
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