It seems as if we have two economies these days. One hovers on the verge of recession and hampers consumer spending due a scarcity of jobs and falling wages. The other is experiencing a robust recovery, creating thousands of new, good paying jobs, and boasts the lowest unemployment in many years. Which of these is true depends on each person’s individual point of view. It can be fact checked, but there are enough published facts to support either viewpoint. So I see it as a personal choice. The measure of GDP is perhaps one of the more objective statistics, but even that is said to be shaped by such nebulous factors as bad weather.
On the these trains forums and blogs, people frequently talk about the railroad recession, and they typically blame it on the demise of coal and to some extent on shrinking crude oil traffic. Less often do they consider the possibility that the low rail traffic may be one very visible component of a slow national economy.
In my opinion, the economy is being spun to be much better than it really is, and the slump in rail traffic paints a big picture that is hard to spin. So depending on a person’s viewpoint, they either accept the connection of the railroad recession to the national economy, or they come up with other explanations for the railroad recession.
Over on Fred Frailey’s blog, they have concluded that the sudden loss of business is due to incompetent marketing. It seems to me that poor marketing would be a long range problem that would not adequately account for a recession that began only a couple years ago.
Here is an article on the railroad recession.
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/05/04/freight-rail-traffic-plunges-aar-april-report-photos-idled-engines-transportation-recession/
This article shows the locomotives out of service and parked on the Union Pacific RR.
Stored locomotives always evoke concerns about the risk of vandalism, and sympathy for of out of work employees who would be running those locomotives, but the problem is much deeper than that. Here on the U.P. are 292 engines, each worth big bucks, each not producing any revenue, and each depreciating in time and weather. It is the cost of unproductive capital.
Yeah unfortunately I believe the last "good" Economy was under George Bush. You need 3%+ GDP for a healthy economy in my opinion. We really do not know where we stand with unemployment due to bad government statistic gathering.
Whomever the next President is, I hope they fix the stats gathering for the economy, unemployment, and law enforcement agencies. It would fix a lot of the arguing and protesting going on now if we at least had a decent view.
We need to see consistent 250,000+ job growth monthly. Anyhow, we have been running about 1-2% GDP growth and I think that is why the railroads are off on earnings and traffic levels. Some believe that is the new normal. I say with our high immigration levels if that is the new normal than in 20 years we will be a very second rate country with a wide division between rich and poor.
When I worked in support of GM on a EDS contract I remember the railroad marketing folks when they came to call on GM, they would be in the lobby with their nametags and RR heralds on their nametags. Union Pacific was by far the best dressed, with shoes spit-shined, suits pressed and impeccable shirt tie combinations. CSX I never saw anyone there, nor did I ever see NS. BNSF I would rate a close second to UP. Never personally saw their marketing presentations though only how they dressed while in the lobby. This was also back in 1993 so things could have changed since then.
Every thing I see and read sends the image that slow economy is a world wide phenomenom at the present time. With the interconnectedness of economies all over the globe, each affects the other. The times of the US booming and the rest of the world struggling to survive are long past.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
Railroads are only one form of transportation. While coal and CBR are down, new oil and gas pipelines are being built. Has trucking's share of general freight gone up? What about waterways? You need to show that all freight transport is down before you cane make conclusions about the overall economy.
MidlandMike Railroads are only one form of transportation. While coal and CBR are down, new oil and gas pipelines are being built. Has trucking's share of general freight gone up? What about waterways? You need to show that all freight transport is down before you cane make conclusions about the overall economy.
Your funny...
I think most of us were referring to how the Federal Reserve reaches it's conclusions on the Economy. I can't guess who taught you the above but generally they are incorrect. They generally use railroad car loads for the Beige Book NOT pipeline anything, NOT barge anything. I am not sure about Trucking it's been over 22 years since I supported PhD Economists on a Economic Analysis staff. That Economics Staff as well used railroad carload reporting as a primary measure of the economy. I don't remember them using trucking either but I could have missed it.
Pipeline plus Waterway combined have less share of transportation than the rails do. Plus I believe the railways reporting on traffic is much more reliable than the above two. So thats why I suspect they exclude pipelines and internal waterways.
You can read the Federal Reserve Beige Book yourself, it is posted online.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook/default.htm
Please show me or highlight the areas where it refers to Barge or Pipeline Traffic, if you can find it. I only see Railroad carloads referenced as well as container loads referenced at ports.
Up here in the Great White North, aka Canada, our economy is based on natural resources ( always has been, despite attempts and claims to the contrary). Quite often we call ourselves " haulers of water and hewers of wood". I can tell you things are way way down in the mining industry and forestry products. Many suppliers to the mining and oil and gas industry are hurting, in big trouble or closed. Commodity prices for potash, uranium, iron ore and base metal concentrates are all at very low prices. Exploration is virtually non existent as no one is interested in investing big bucks in high risk. Only one doing OK really is gold which really doesn't use rail.
I teach Mining Engineering and Geology. The graduating class from this past June was the first one ever where not one student was offered employment. One of my grads is working as a garbage man for the town. Yah, the economy is not all that healthy.
Miningman Up here in the Great White North, aka Canada, our economy is based on natural resources ( always has been, despite attempts and claims to the contrary). Quite often we call ourselves " haulers of water and hewers of wood". I can tell you things are way way down in the mining industry and forestry products. Many suppliers to the mining and oil and gas industry are hurting, in big trouble or closed. Commodity prices for potash, uranium, iron ore and base metal concentrates are all at very low prices. Exploration is virtually non existent as no one is interested in investing big bucks in high risk. Only one doing OK really is gold which really doesn't use rail. I teach Mining Engineering and Geology. The graduating class from this past June was the first one ever where not one student was offered employment. One of my grads is working as a garbage man for the town. Yah, the economy is not all that healthy.
When I rode the Skeena, Jasper to Prince Rupert about 6-8 years ago, the VIA rail crew pointed out a Gold Ore mine in which they were loading Gold Ore into Gondolas with yellow covers. Could have been BS because that crew was rather strange in other ways. At the time I wondered how they could secure the ore if it wasn't a secret to the rail crews. Also why they would use covered gondolas instead of ore cars. Strange story and I wonder if it was ever true.
In regards to Canada vs U.S. Would be nice if we finally connected Alaska by rail...#1. Then built a Western line across Alaska to a new deep water port and interchange with Russia / China via sea going barge #2. Improve our border crossings between Canada and Mexico to be a LOT more fluid #3. Get Mexico to expand more into Central America with trade agreements along with the U.S. and Canada #4. Connect Guatamala and Mexico's rail system through Central America to South America #5, likewise with the highway system.
We have a long ways to go with building in this hemisphere, in my opinion. We should be focusing on that along with the trade agreements. It would be really cool to some day see standard guage railcars from Central and South America floating around the United States on the rail system up here. Instead of just the Mexican and Canadian rail cars.
CMStPnP When I rode the Skeena, Jasper to Prince Rupert about 6-8 years ago, the VIA rail crew pointed out a Gold Ore mine in which they were loading Gold Ore into Gondolas with yellow covers. Could have been BS because that crew was rather strange in other ways. At the time I wondered how they could secure the ore if it wasn't a secret to the rail crews. Also why they would use covered gondolas instead of ore cars. Strange story and I wonder if it was ever true.
Just speculating - I suspect Gold Ore is probably 99+% other minerals that are probably a lot lighter than iron ore. As such you probably have to process the entire 80 or 90 tons of the Gold Ore to end up with an ounce of gold with the density of the Gold Ore being much less than iron ore, it cubes out before it weighs out, thus the use of ore jennys would not be appropriate. I could be totally mistaken.
Balt, I cannot lay my hands on any definite numbers, but I agree with you--the amount of gold that is in the ore is very small when compared with the total mass--yet it is profitable to mine, especially with what other desired minerals are found in the mass.
Johnny
Gold bearing rock generally gets processed close to its location as the only way it makes the operation feasible. Otherwise the cost of transport for the remaining 99.9% of material that is waste renders it uneconomic. More likely the gondolas had some other ore, possibly lead-zinc-silver or copper, which is found in much higher concentrations. Traces of gold might be mixed in, which might be extracted later, but that would be a little bonus rather than the primary reason for mining an orebody.
I'm sure the crew was taking advantage of the yellow covers to support a good yarn. Maybe I should start one about using reefers to export permafrost.
Most all Gold mines have a mill on site. Gold can be freed through crushing, grinding and then chemical or gravity methods. Some mines do arrange to have their ore "custom milled" at a different mine site. This is usually in the order of 200 to 1,500 tons per day. It is possible that, were a railroad handy nearby and just happened to be going that way then it could be transported by rail.
I worked at a gold mine in Northern Ontario that received shipment's from a mine in Quebec for "custom milling". It was trucked in. It was a Godsend as for a period of time it was a primary source of income.
If it was what we call "VG" or visible gold then no way it gets shipped unless under armed guard. It woud be milled on site. Those types of deposits are rare and even rarer today as all the easy to find stuff has been mined. Gold mines today are in the order of 4-10 GRAMS per ton. It is not visible gold. That is roughly 1/8 to 1/3 of a ounce per TON.
What you saw was likely a base metal, probably a massive sulphide, concentrate. It would be Ziinc, Lead, Iron, Copper, Cobalt and other metallic elements in a concentrate form. This would definitely contain precious metals of gold, silver and platinum but the whole concentrate needs to go to a smelter and refinery before you get anything.
We do ship and sell our concentrate to China for processing. Hudson Bay Mining and Smelting ships concentrate by rail in gondolas. These would have to be covered so the concentrate doesn't go flying out of the gon's in transit. HBM&S shut down their own big smelter in Flin Flon mostly due to the Kyoto Accord ( now expired) but also because the smelter would have to be completely refurbished under today's environmental standards. You can easily see the line of politics throughout this whole thing.
At one of our local stores here in town you can purchase canned pears and fruit cocktail that come from China! Now just 3 or 4 cans makes a bag pretty hefty, imagine gazillions of these things being shipped and all that handling. We grow lots of pears here In many varieties. How is this even remotely feasible? Greater minds than mine I quess.
John Kneiling used to write about oranges from Israel being sold in New York City instead of those from Florida. He used it as an example of dysfunctional surface (rail) transport, even on the East Coast where there were several major north-south lines. Back then he was right, too.
- Paul North.
Miningman The graduating class from this past June was the first one ever where not one student was offered employment. One of my grads is working as a garbage man for the town. Yah, the economy is not all that healthy
Extractive industries are always boom and bust. At least in Canada you have health care.
CMStPnP MidlandMike Railroads are only one form of transportation. While coal and CBR are down, new oil and gas pipelines are being built. Has trucking's share of general freight gone up? What about waterways? You need to show that all freight transport is down before you cane make conclusions about the overall economy. Your funny... I think most of us were referring to how the Federal Reserve reaches it's conclusions on the Economy. I can't guess who taught you the above but generally they are incorrect. They generally use railroad car loads for the Beige Book NOT pipeline anything, NOT barge anything. I am not sure about Trucking it's been over 22 years since I supported PhD Economists on a Economic Analysis staff. That Economics Staff as well used railroad carload reporting as a primary measure of the economy. I don't remember them using trucking either but I could have missed it. Pipeline plus Waterway combined have less share of transportation than the rails do. Plus I believe the railways reporting on traffic is much more reliable than the above two. So thats why I suspect they exclude pipelines and internal waterways. You can read the Federal Reserve Beige Book yourself, it is posted online. http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook/default.htm Please show me or highlight the areas where it refers to Barge or Pipeline Traffic, if you can find it. I only see Railroad carloads referenced as well as container loads referenced at ports.
I was replying to Euclid's OP. He seemed to indicate that the economy-railroad connection was "So depending on a person’s viewpoint,...", rather then some specific Fed rail related measure. There were only 2 subsequent replys to him before my post: one which brought up world economics; and the other which was yours, which seemed to support the OP. So I guess when you say "I think most of us...", then you are referring just to yourself. Knowing that railroads have been losing market share for the past 100 years, any economic measure of transportation that relies solely on rail is inadaquate. It is obvious that the Fed does not solely rely on rail as their measure of economic activity in the transportation sector. From the Fed's Beigebook June 2016:
Page IV-3 "Demand for natural gas is rising as gas displaces coal as the fuel of choice. Investment in pipeline projects moved forward. Some of our contacts believe that wellhead prices may have bottomed out and those prices may start to increase slowly during the fourth quarter."
Page V-2 " An executive at a national trucking firm located in the District said business was uneven, but quotes had increased for dedicated service contracts in which trucks, trailers, and rates are locked in. Regional airports reported flat to slightly stronger revenue growth in passenger and cargo."
Extractive industries are always boom and bust. At least in Canada you have health care.-Ouibejumn
Having been in the mining industry for 40 years I am well aware of the boom/bust cycles in the mining industry, however mining programs in colleges and universities that the companies dole out millions to support, ours no exception, with not one grad being offered employment is rather surprising. It's very scary.
Yes we do have health care. In a fully developed mature economy with only 35 million people on the second largest land mass in the world with 60% of the worlds known natural resources it's easy for governments to afford but yet it's far from ideal for the individual.
Give it all another twenty years and there will be only one guy going to work to push a button and everything happens. What do we do? The machines will figure that out as well.
MiningmanAt one of our local stores here in town you can purchase canned pears and fruit cocktail that come from China! Now just 3 or 4 cans makes a bag pretty hefty, imagine gazillions of these things being shipped and all that handling. We grow lots of pears here In many varieties. How is this even remotely feasible?
It's feasible because ocean transportation costs approach zero.
Consider this ship:
https://www.cma-cgm.com/news/1030/the-cma-cgm-benjamin-franklin-exceptional-dimensions-for-the-largest-vessel-ever-to-call-at-a-u-s-port
It can carry 18,000 TEU (9,000 forty foot containers). With only 26 total crew members! Including the cooks! This ship type is amazingly efficient.
I'll estimate the charge for moving a container from China to North America at $2,000 US. If there are 40,000 pounds of canned pears in the container that works out to five cents per pound. It's next to nothing.
This makes the Chinese cannary "Virtually" in North America. I checked, Del Monte canned pears go for $1.81/pound at Walmart. Five cents per pound for transportation across the Pacific is but 2.8% of the retail sale price. As I said, the transportation cost from China is next to nothing. The Chinese production is virtually in North America because of the efficiency in transporting the pears.
Greyhounds- ....well heck!
Nice analysis. Kudo's to you.
greyhounds Miningman At one of our local stores here in town you can purchase canned pears and fruit cocktail that come from China! Now just 3 or 4 cans makes a bag pretty hefty, imagine gazillions of these things being shipped and all that handling. We grow lots of pears here In many varieties. How is this even remotely feasible? It's feasible because ocean transportation costs approach zero. Consider this ship: https://www.cma-cgm.com/news/1030/the-cma-cgm-benjamin-franklin-exceptional-dimensions-for-the-largest-vessel-ever-to-call-at-a-u-s-port It can carry 18,000 TEU (9,000 forty foot containers). With only 26 total crew members! Including the cooks! This ship type is amazingly efficient. I'll estimate the charge for moving a container from China to North America at $2,000 US. If there are 40,000 pounds of canned pears in the container that works out to five cents per pound. It's next to nothing. This makes the Chinese cannary "Virtually" in North America. I checked, Del Monte canned pears go for $1.81/pound at Walmart. Five cents per pound for transportation across the Pacific is but 2.8% of the retail sale price. As I said, the transportation cost from China is next to nothing. The Chinese production is virtually in North America because of the efficiency in transporting the pears.
Miningman At one of our local stores here in town you can purchase canned pears and fruit cocktail that come from China! Now just 3 or 4 cans makes a bag pretty hefty, imagine gazillions of these things being shipped and all that handling. We grow lots of pears here In many varieties. How is this even remotely feasible?
One might well think 2.8% is miniscule, but it's significant in the world of retail. For example, while Wal-Mart's gross profit margin (markup) was 25.33%, the net profit margin was only 2.66% for the quarter ending 4/30/2016. Pennies do count.
C&NW, CA&E, MILW, CGW and IC fan
MidlandMike CMStPnP MidlandMike Railroads are only one form of transportation. While coal and CBR are down, new oil and gas pipelines are being built. Has trucking's share of general freight gone up? What about waterways? You need to show that all freight transport is down before you cane make conclusions about the overall economy. Your funny... I think most of us were referring to how the Federal Reserve reaches it's conclusions on the Economy. I can't guess who taught you the above but generally they are incorrect. They generally use railroad car loads for the Beige Book NOT pipeline anything, NOT barge anything. I am not sure about Trucking it's been over 22 years since I supported PhD Economists on a Economic Analysis staff. That Economics Staff as well used railroad carload reporting as a primary measure of the economy. I don't remember them using trucking either but I could have missed it. Pipeline plus Waterway combined have less share of transportation than the rails do. Plus I believe the railways reporting on traffic is much more reliable than the above two. So thats why I suspect they exclude pipelines and internal waterways. You can read the Federal Reserve Beige Book yourself, it is posted online. http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook/default.htm Please show me or highlight the areas where it refers to Barge or Pipeline Traffic, if you can find it. I only see Railroad carloads referenced as well as container loads referenced at ports. I was replying to Euclid's OP. He seemed to indicate that the economy-railroad connection was "So depending on a person’s viewpoint,...", rather then some specific Fed rail related measure. There were only 2 subsequent replys to him before my post: one which brought up world economics; and the other which was yours, which seemed to support the OP. So I guess when you say "I think most of us...", then you are referring just to yourself. Knowing that railroads have been losing market share for the past 100 years, any economic measure of transportation that relies solely on rail is inadaquate. It is obvious that the Fed does not solely rely on rail as their measure of economic activity in the transportation sector. From the Fed's Beigebook June 2016: Page IV-3 "Demand for natural gas is rising as gas displaces coal as the fuel of choice. Investment in pipeline projects moved forward. Some of our contacts believe that wellhead prices may have bottomed out and those prices may start to increase slowly during the fourth quarter." Page V-2 " An executive at a national trucking firm located in the District said business was uneven, but quotes had increased for dedicated service contracts in which trucks, trailers, and rates are locked in. Regional airports reported flat to slightly stronger revenue growth in passenger and cargo."
In this case, I tend to agree somewhat with Euclid. Forget coal and crude, it's the rest of railroading's car loads that are down that has me wondering. Especially the "raw materials" type of loads. Much of that can't easily be lost to trucks. Now, that could just mean that the trend for manufacturing to move to other countries is growing. However, it's been reported that international trade has been down. That the growth in railroad intermodal has been domestic rather than international boxes. (Even if the reduced car loadings are a sign of increased manufacturing overseas, IMO it's still a bad sign for our economy.)
Media coverage of the economy seems to be bi-polar, for want of a better expression. One day I read a story of how great things are. Then a day or two later I read a story of how slow things are and the worry of a recession is growing. Often some of the same data is referenced.
As observed, how a person's view of the economy is doing does depend on where one's viewing from. As observed by someone in the state wide paper, "We've gone from an economy that produced full time $18 hr jobs with benefits to one that produces part-time $10 hr jobs with no benefits." Obviously someone who's view is not from the top looking down.
Jeff
schlimmOne might well think 2.8% is miniscule, but it's significant in the world of retail. For example, while Wal-Mart's gross profit margin (markup) was 25.33%, the net profit margin was only 2.66% for the quarter ending 4/30/2016. Pennies do count.
I fully agree that grocery retail is a penny business. Walmart's margin may be 25.33% overall, but I'd wager (and I do wager) that it's much less on groceries.
But! My point was, and remains, that the transportation cost for moving the canned pears across the wide Pacific approaches zero. The Chinese producer only needs to make up for a very slight ($0.05/pound) amount to be price competitive with domestically grown canned pears.
The Chinese obviously can do this little thing. As a result their production of canned pears is competitive with our production of canned pears. It's feasible to import canned pears because of the transportation efficiencies of ocean shipping. That was the point.
BaltACDEvery thing I see and read sends the image that slow economy is a world wide phenomenom at the present time. With the interconnectedness of economies all over the globe, each affects the other. The times of the US booming and the rest of the world struggling to survive are long past.
You might be partially right with the above,
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fiscal-stimulus-economists-gdp-growth-000000335.html
However, I still believe the United States can lead the world as the foremost consumer of goods with a 3-4% GDP Growth rate.....if we try.
One candidate is promising to attempt the 3-4% GDP Growth rate. The other is settling for 2% growth rates or less for their term........which just pizzes me off to no end. The gleeful forecast of 10.4 million jobs over 4 years is an average of 216k a month.......very weak and a cop out in my view. Happy I am not retired yet myself but I feel the folks that are retired are getting royally screwed with the 2% is the new normal philosophy.
The real issue here is that 1-2% additional GDP growth and increased tax reciepts can fix a lot of issues such as the imbalanced budget and the National Debt level. Thats where the anger comes from we are prolonging the pain by not even trying to hit the higher level......it seems the goal is never set that high to begin with. And the attitude seems to be thats OK BUT at some point we are headed for a serious fiscal crisis unless we increase GDP Growth or cut spending much more deeply.
greyhounds schlimm One might well think 2.8% is miniscule, but it's significant in the world of retail. For example, while Wal-Mart's gross profit margin (markup) was 25.33%, the net profit margin was only 2.66% for the quarter ending 4/30/2016. Pennies do count. I fully agree that grocery retail is a penny business. Walmart's margin may be 25.33% overall, but I'd wager (and I do wager) that it's much less on groceries. But! My point was, and remains, that the transportation cost for moving the canned pears across the wide Pacific approaches zero. The Chinese producer only needs to make up for a very slight ($0.05/pound) amount to be price competitive with domestically grown canned pears. The Chinese obviously can do this little thing. As a result their production of canned pears is competitive with our production of canned pears. It's feasible to import canned pears because of the transportation efficiencies of ocean shipping. That was the point.
schlimm One might well think 2.8% is miniscule, but it's significant in the world of retail. For example, while Wal-Mart's gross profit margin (markup) was 25.33%, the net profit margin was only 2.66% for the quarter ending 4/30/2016. Pennies do count.
Understood. I'm pretty sure the sustained average markup on the grocery segment is even less. It's also Wal-Mart's biggest segment.
On a related note, what ever happened to the rails' share of canned fruits, etc. from growing areas in the US? I recall your making a strong case for rails recapturing a share of several other food categories through creative/aggressive marketing. Any thoughts on canned goods?
MidlandMike You need to show that all freight transport is down before you cane make conclusions about the overall economy.
You have posted that more than once and I was pointing out it is incorrect.
If loose comments about natural gas prices and trucking rates represent a unit of measure equal to rail carloads broken down monthly by frieght category......then more power to you. When you see automobiles and furniture transported down a pipeline in a slurry, let me know.......I want to see pictures of that. I would even settle for new automobiles delivered via barge. So maybe you could also conclude because of the consumer basket of goods carried by the rails they are included as a unit of measure of the economy? They do not look at pipeline or waterway traffic, as I stated before.
Also rail's market share on a ton-mile basis year over year currently is increasing not decreasing and rail is still the most dominant part of the pie. Forecasts of increase of rail freight of up to 35 percent by 2050 over today's figures, given current population growth patterns.
jeffhergert "We've gone from an economy that produced full time $18 hr jobs with benefits to one that produces part-time $10 hr jobs with no benefits."
Yes I have seen that quote before as well. It's true for unskilled jobs. Is manufacturing a unskilled job? My Father used to be an Exec at a $40-50 million a year plastic molding firm. I watched the factory floor positions evolve over 15 years from simple press operator (family run business and union shop)........opening and closing the door of a press and remove a part from a injection mold. To finisher, person who scrapes off the plastic flash and polishes the part and then packs it. The press operation part became fully automated with robots and computers. The press operator had two choices. Evolve or get layed-off. When I last saw that plastic firm they were starting to automate some of the finishing and packaging of products as well.
It's not just plastic molding where that is happening. In the 1980's General Motors bought FANUC robotics and started a spree of factory automation. So that is one point, the manufacturing jobs that are staying in the United States are evolving into ones involving more skill. The jobs we are shipping out are by a large percentage unskilled.
Now lets look over in the White Collar area at IT or Computer Programming. When I started you really needed to know your math and your machine language which required a college degree, in my view. Over time, improvements to programming and graphically representing programming languages has made Computer Programming less and less of a "College Degree Required" field. As a consequence a lot of the Computer Programming jobs have shifted over to India or China and have been outsourced as well. So the white collar side of the fence is being hit as well as blue collar and it is one reason for stagnant wages. Any kid these days can learn how to program in Java or a Smartphone application. The salaries for both reflect that.
The Computer programming jobs that have stayed largely in this country require more skill and business knowledge (education and training). So most Computer Progammers have adapted or they work at sub par salaries for the Indian firms. Hot Topic today in IT is the use of outsourcing and the H1b VISA program. A lot of Americans think they are stealing our jobs. In my view they are making the workplace more competitive. Never once have I lost a good job to a H1b VISA or Indian Firm. Even when I interview head to head against them, I usually land the job. Not because of discrimination but because I market better than they do and my skills are more tailored to the job I am applying for. So in my view, yes they hold Salaries down but as far as finding a job.......little to no impact with the H1b VISA holders.
Bottom line is, I think because of our educational system, the quality and requirements of jobs as far as skills are increasing.........Salary is increasing with those jobs. Where you see salary stagnant or falling is with the jobs that do not require as much knowledge.
I don't think we will ever get back the unskilled jobs but I think we can increase the blue collar part of the economy by emphasizing trade school more (2 years after High School). And it seems like our government is going to cover the cost of that soon so, we'll see if it increases the blue collar ranks in which you do not need a college degree but you will need to attend a trade school. You pretty much have to do the same internally to become a railway crew member.....BTW. They don't hire people off the streets with no training and put them in a Locomotive. I am sure that job is evolving with computers and automation as well. If it looks like your being marginalized as a person in the Locomotive cab......time to start thinking about a new profession because full automation is not that far behind.
We are always going to need the Homer Simpson's.
Miningman Give it all another twenty years and there will be only one guy going to work to push a button and everything happens. What do we do? The machines will figure that out as well.
I'll say this, MM. I heard 50 years ago already how the big problem of the future was how all of us were going to spend our leisure time, what with 15-hour workweeks and retirement at 46. No word, of course, on how this was to be financed.
Instead, we find ourselves in a more realistic situation: Workers knocking themselves out, working harder than ever -- only 55 hours a week at a decent salary, if they're lucky -- while everybody else, up to 40 percent, lives off of them. (Not off "the government," which has no money of its own.)
In twenty years? Glad I won't be around for that ugliness. (I suspect it will look a lot like Venezuela and Brazil.)
dakotafredIn twenty years? Glad I won't be around for that ugliness
The idea that you already know how much longer you'll be on this earth surprises me, but hey plan ahead I guess ;).
dakotafred...what with 15-hour workweeks and retirement at 46. No word, of course, on how this was to be financed.
I read some time back about a company that went to a 12 hour day and a 36 hour workweek. Apparently the work was such that such a schedule was possible.
All was good until people discovered that they couldn't afford the time off. After all, if you have four days off, you're more tempted to take a trip, or something of the sort.
They went back to a more conventional schedule.
Larry Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date Come ride the rails with me! There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...
Here in Northern Saskatchewan our mines all work at 2 weeks in, 2 weeks out, 12 hour shifts. A person has to pace themselves as 14 days of 12 hour shifts is pretty tough. They are all fly inn sites.
The CNR should have ( still could actually) put in a switch where the tracks cross the N. Saskatchewan River in Prince Albert right at the point where they swing west to Alberta. This "switch" ( I suppose a junction is a better term), would allow a route north into Northern Saskatchewan and the uranium mines in the Athabasca Basin. Railroads built lines all the way north on either side of us, in Manitoba up to Churchill on Hudsons Bay and in Alberta all the way up to Pine Point in the North West Territories. Alternatively they could build due west from Flin Flon to the centre of the province and then swing north. Yah, we could use a bullet train straight up to our trading post.
tree68 dakotafred I read some time back about a company that went to a 12 hour day and a 36 hour workweek. Apparently the work was such that such a schedule was possible. All was good until people discovered that they couldn't afford the time off. After all, if you have four days off, you're more tempted to take a trip, or something of the sort. They went back to a more conventional schedule.
dakotafred
I am familiar with the three 12 hour days - in a 24/7 enviornment - which is actually a 48 hours in 7 days schedule.
Our community is FREE to join. To participate you must either login or register for an account.