RailvtBottom line, if we think the SW CHIEF should be maintained as a through route then Amtrak must continue to serve tracks exempted by the FRA from PTC
Yep....and the bus bridge idea is dumb - for all the reasons you've stated.
But, Amtrak needs to be sure that everyone has their eyes wide open when they are talking about running without PTC implies and entails.
Amtrak is also correct about requiring solid funding for their routes. Enough with the hand-to-mouth, live to play another day, "place holder" thinking!
-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/)
This argument over revenue passengers ignores what are the RPMs for each leg of the train. That is what is the least traveled leg and the most traveled leg ? Is Kansas City <> CHI much greater than ABQ -?
Maybe KCY <> CHI needs 6 coaches ?
Let's take this from a different angle.
You are Anderson. You spent your whole life in airlines. Moving people from A to B and trying to make a buck. You spent a lot of time figuring out how to best employ your assets and put butts in seats.
You friend from NS asks you about doing a post retirement gig with Amtrak. You accept.
Then, you get the tour. The NEC you understand. It does basically what your airline does. It has levels of service, yield pricing, the whole deal. You get that.
Then you look at your route map. What's up with that? A line through the middle of Kansas? A line through rural SC?
So, you ask your folk. "Why are we running this train? What does it do?"
And you get you get a mixed bag of answers. "Placeholder", Political support, routes in our contract, too hard to change, "they are holding their own".
Then, you learn about PTC and think that's great. If it weren't for fanatical safety protocols and culture for airplanes and airlines, we wouldn't have anywhere near the safety performance airlines have managed.
Then you have a thunderous wreck in the middle of rural SC. Then you find out that certain Amtrak routes are "PTC exempt". What the heck?!?
Worse yet, that route through Kansas has no permanent funding. "We're running a train through the middle of nowhere, in the middle of the night, and we have no secure funding and no PTC? Does anyone think this is a smart idea? Certainly, there are better things to do with our trains."
"When I ran Delta, and we had a lousy route, we redeployed our aircraft elsewhere. Why don't we do that with our trains?"
A perfectly good question.
A way-harder-than-it-should-be answer.
oltmannd ...Amtrak needs to be sure that everyone has their eyes wide open when they are talking about running without PTC implies and entails.
With respect, though ... that does not involve what running without ATS implies and entails, and the safety aspect specific to the SWC over Raton, which is as I understand it the whole of the PTC issue that practically applies, is only the 80 miles it prospectively shares with the commuter operation.
While I understand how little faith we have in Amtrak engineer training, certainly it is not clearly and presently dangerous to operate trains over that full section of route, so little populated by alternative traffic that can't be predicted, without the whole ridiculous, misguided kludge that is mandated PTC at present.
BaltACDHave we reached to point were the Democrats are the Tax and Spend party and the GOP has become the Cut Taxes and Spend even more party? Despite leaving the treasury in a ever increasing deficit position.
I am curious how this all balances out because when the Feds collect a Tarriff it acts like a tax and goes to the Treasury to spend. Likewise when you achieve 3% GDP growth or higher your tax revenues will be higher typically than you projected in your budget resulting in a surplus of taxes paid in. Add that to the tarriffs collected and we might just have a surplus in April 2019 instead of a deficit........which would be humourous, in my opinion.......after a huge forecasted deficit. Add to that even more the discounted tax they are going assess firms bringing their capital back to U.S. shores. No telling what our deficit will be this year and it might even be a surplus.
CMStPnP BaltACD Have we reached to point were the Democrats are the Tax and Spend party and the GOP has become the Cut Taxes and Spend even more party? Despite leaving the treasury in a ever increasing deficit position. I am curious how this all balances out because when the Feds collect a Tarriff it acts like a tax and goes to the Treasury to spend. Likewise when you achieve 3% GDP growth or higher your tax revenues will be higher typically than you projected in your budget resulting in a surplus of taxes paid in. Add that to the tarriffs collected and we might just have a surplus in April 2019 instead of a deficit........which would be humourous, in my opinion.......after a huge forecasted deficit. Add to that even more the discounted tax they are going assess firms bringing their capital back to U.S. shores. No telling what our deficit will be this year and it might even be a surplus.
BaltACD Have we reached to point were the Democrats are the Tax and Spend party and the GOP has become the Cut Taxes and Spend even more party? Despite leaving the treasury in a ever increasing deficit position.
Porcine flight paths.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
Will you be willing to say "I was wrong" when this year's deficit turns out to be HUGE?
Trump admin revised deficit upward: https://www.wsj.com/articles/deficit-projected-to-top-1-trillion-starting-next-year-1531950742
Overmod oltmannd ...Amtrak needs to be sure that everyone has their eyes wide open when they are talking about running without PTC implies and entails. With respect, though ... that does not involve what running without ATS implies and entails, and the safety aspect specific to the SWC over Raton, which is as I understand it the whole of the PTC issue that practically applies, is only the 80 miles it prospectively shares with the commuter operation. While I understand how little faith we have in Amtrak engineer training, certainly it is not clearly and presently dangerous to operate trains over that full section of route, so little populated by alternative traffic that can't be predicted, without the whole ridiculous, misguided kludge that is mandated PTC at present.
Certainly, PTC is a 5 lb maul to hammer in 4d nails.... but, it's a mandate that the RRs "earned" by their failure to advance the ball toward the goal on their own.
So, being that it exists... and the reason it exists, it does seem reasonable to me that Anderson would question the lack of universality. It seems that he's walked back a bit by talking about "reviews" and "alternative methods".
I would think Batory and the FRA would be particularly useful in this regard. He knows "what's what".
I would be surprised if any train is going to stop running because of lack of PTC.
oltmanndWill you be willing to say "I was wrong" when this year's deficit turns out to be HUGE?
How could I be wrong? I didn't predict anything in the post. I only said no telling what our deficit is going to be for this year.
Ah yes, interest rates on the 20 trillion National Debt are also increasing with the Feds Interest Rate hikes, that should be interesting to watch (no pun intended).
CMStPnP oltmannd Will you be willing to say "I was wrong" when this year's deficit turns out to be HUGE? How could I be wrong? I didn't predict anything in the post. I only said no telling what our deficit is going to be for this year. Ah yes, interest rates on the 20 trillion National Debt are also increasing with the Feds Interest Rate hikes, that should be interesting to watch (no pun intended).
oltmannd Will you be willing to say "I was wrong" when this year's deficit turns out to be HUGE?
You said in an earlier post "it might even be a surplus." Sounds like a prediction, same as saying "it might rain today" minus a probability number.
Does the 550 mile bus trip come with a barf bag?
Only for First Class sleeper passengers.
Coach passengers must bring their own.
RailvtThe bus bridge alone, per bus, per day can be expected to run $1200-1500 per day times at minimum two buses.
Eh, those bus rates seem a little high to me, I chartered a full size bus from the Milwaukee Amtrak Depot to Mineral Point, WI for approx $700 RT not too long ago........8 hour trip in duration for the driver.
You were exceptionally lucky if you got an 8 hour charter for $700 in the last few years. For the past 35 years I worked full time in the tour industry and arranged typically 20-30 bus charters each season. I speak from long experience.
For example, a 10-day charter for a New England tour in the fall of 2016 cost us over $12,000, plus driver rooms. Of course rates can be lower--especially when daily mileage/gas consumption will be low, but the bus bridge will not be that--particularly if run from Dodge City to Albuquerque.
For the SW CHIEF bus bridge Amtrak will need a very select level of bus provider. They will be looking at needing (at least initially) a provider who can give them 2-4 coaches each way each day to cover the loads generally on-board on the SWC. This will rapidly decline to probably 1-2 busses, as patronage collapses as passengers face half a day (overnight?) on the bus, but for awhile 150-200 riders will need to be accommodated each way. 56 is the typical capacity of a standard American motorcoach if every seat is filled.
The bus operator will need enough drivers to deal with the possibility of a second driver being required, if they can not complete the route in 10-11 hours. On paper Google suggests around 8 hours for the run, but that ignores the need to go in/out of seven stations and the need for driver and passengers to make at least two extended meal/rest stops in the long run from Albuquerque to Dodge City. At an average of 55mph 10 hours driving time alone will be needed, plus stops and breaks. East of Trinidad, CO they will be on traditional non-Interstate roads as well.
High standard coches will be needed to stand up to the demanding conditions incurred while dealing with the mountain grades between ABQ and Trinidad, CO and to stand up both to winter snows and summer heat. It is very likely that the service will have to come from an Albuquerque provider, as it is unlikely a qualified coach operator can be found in central Kansas with enough equipment to protect such a demanding charter in terms of both staff levels and needed coaches. From past experience I can attest that the Albuquerque area is not a bargain priced region for charters.
Of course Amtrak may get a good rate by commiting to a long-term contract, but for a bus company this is a very demanding and somewhat risky program. Even if it stays within the hours of service requirements to use only one driver per day per bus, a lot of staff will be needed (and unable to be assigned to other chartes) and extra coaches will be essental to cover such a demanding assignment, as after running this route on a daily basis wear and tear on the bus will be significant and the coach can not be home every night.
Bottom line is this will not be cheap and Amtrak will not be able to rely on a low-end charter company with older equipment. And all of this argument about costs belies the most important point--a half-day charter in the middle of the route, requiring two changes for a through rider, will not be accepted by Amtrak riders. Worse it will probably be an overnight ride if Amtrak tries to run the stub trains primarily by day to get rid of sleepers/diner service on the stub trains. This is a scenario to assure the end of service on the line and Amtrak of course knows it.
RailvtYou were exceptionally lucky if you got an 8 hour charter for $700 in the last few years. For the past 35 years I worked full time in the tour industry and arranged typically 20-30 bus charters each season. I speak from long experience. For example, a 10-day charter for a New England tour in the fall of 2016 cost us over $12,000, plus driver rooms. Of course rates can be lower--especially when daily mileage/gas consumption will be low, but the bus bridge will not be that--particularly if run from Dodge City to Albuquerque. For the SW CHIEF bus bridge Amtrak will need a very select level of bus provider. They will be looking at needing (at least initially) a provider who can give them 2-4 coaches each way each day to cover the loads generally on-board on the SWC. This will rapidly decline to probably 1-2 busses, as patronage collapses as passengers face half a day (overnight?) on the bus, but for awhile 150-200 riders will need to be accommodated each way.46 is the typical capacity of a standard American motorcoach. The bus operator will need enough drivers to deal with the possibility of a second driver being required, if they can not complete the route in 10-11 hours. On paper Google suggests around 8 hours for the run, but that ignores the need to go in/out of seven stations and the need for driver and passengers to make at least two extended meal/rest stops in the long run from Albuquerque to Dodge City. At an average of 55mph 10 hours driving time alone will be needed, plus stops and breaks. East of Trinidad, CO they will be on traditional non-Interstate roads as well. High standard coches will be needed to stand up to the demanding conditions incurred while dealing with the mountain grades between ABQ and Trinidad, CO and to stand up both to winter snows and summer heat. It is very likely that the service will have to come from an Albuquerque provider, as it is unlikely a qualified coach operator can be found in central Kansas with enough equipment to protect such a demanding charter in terms of both staff levels and needed coaches. From past experience I can attest that the Albuquerque area is not a bargain priced region for charters. Of course Amtrak may get a good rate by commiting to a long-term contract, but for a bus company this is a very demanding and somewhat risky program. Even if it stays within the hours of service requirements to use only one driver per day per bus, a lot of staff will be needed (and unable to be assigned to other chartes) and extra coaches will be essental to cover such a demanding assignment, as after running this route on a daily basis wear and tear on the bus will be significant and the coach can not be home every night. Bottom line is this will not be cheap and Amtrak will not be able to rely on a low-end charter company with older equipment. And all of this argument about costs belies the most important point--a half-day charter in the middle of the route, requiring two changes for a through rider, will not be accepted by Amtrak riders. Worse it will probably be an overnight ride if Amtrak tries to run the stub trains primarily by day to get rid of sleepers/diner service on the stub trains. This is a scenario to assure the end of service on the line and Amtrak of course knows it.
I'm not going to argue the point but I can tell from the above you don't have a clue on the costs or the equipment available a long the route despite your experience. Bus charter companies are a dime a dozen. Oh and I rented a new 56 Passenger bus from Coach USA, pretty sure it could handle Mountain Grades from what the driver said where he had driven the bus.........and guess what.......it was based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Though I would never rate the grades along the Santa Fe Trail as challenging for motor vehicles. There is a reason why it was a trail for horse pulled wagons.
Before we descend to name calling bus companies are anything but a dime a dozen, at least ones able to meet Amtrak’s needs in Dodge City.
There are many small operators, mostly with school bus type equipment and there are local tour services who typically use older handed down coaches that are fine for day trips, but would not hold up to this sort of regime.
I do not dispute for a minute what you paid the local Coach USA in MKE for a bus. But in western Kansas Amtrak will need a volume operator. If they have to deadhead in from Wichita or Topeka that will add costs and time. At best the driver will be barely legal under hours in service running just Dodge City to ABQ. A deadhead to/from a bus base will assure the need for multiple drivers each day.
You got a great rate, but that won’t be likely here. And even if Amtrak did somehow get 1990s rates in 2019, the long bus bridge would kill far more ridership and revenue than Amtrak would save. This is a terrible idea regardless of the price
this may be all moot as some senators seeem to be adding amendments to the Amtrak bill.
So apparently the Senate just passed a bill with another $50 million in it for the Southwest Chief and a requirement it continue to run on the same route. Anderson can ignore the will of Congress of course but he undoubtedly will be removed if he does since Congress is the main paymaster here. A fact I am fairly sure he is aware of.
CMStPnP So apparently the Senate just passed a bill with another $50 million in it for the Southwest Chief and a requirement it continue to run on the same route. Anderson can ignore the will of Congress of course but he undoubtedly will be removed if he does since Congress is the main paymaster here. A fact I am fairly sure he is aware of.
I'd be shocked if Anderson bucked Congress. His complaint all along was the lack of long term funding. If this fills the bill, then it's good to go.
I have a REALLY hard time swallowing that this whole thing is a ruse for killing the train.
oltmannd CMStPnP So apparently the Senate just passed a bill with another $50 million in it for the Southwest Chief and a requirement it continue to run on the same route. Anderson can ignore the will of Congress of course but he undoubtedly will be removed if he does since Congress is the main paymaster here. A fact I am fairly sure he is aware of. I'd be shocked if Anderson bucked Congress. His complaint all along was the lack of long term funding. If this fills the bill, then it's good to go. I have a REALLY hard time swallowing that this whole thing is a ruse for killing the train.
Maybe Anderson used the plan of breaking the train in two and busing the gap as a ruse to get more funding to continue the status quo?
oltmanndI'd be shocked if Anderson bucked Congress. His complaint all along was the lack of long term funding. If this fills the bill, then it's good to go. I have a REALLY hard time swallowing that this whole thing is a ruse for killing the train.
I don't think he will either because no Amtrak President in the past has ignored legislation passed. Maybe he will use some of the money as an opportunity to improve the train beyond just keeping the route in place.
charlie hebdo oltmannd CMStPnP So apparently the Senate just passed a bill with another $50 million in it for the Southwest Chief and a requirement it continue to run on the same route. Anderson can ignore the will of Congress of course but he undoubtedly will be removed if he does since Congress is the main paymaster here. A fact I am fairly sure he is aware of. I'd be shocked if Anderson bucked Congress. His complaint all along was the lack of long term funding. If this fills the bill, then it's good to go. I have a REALLY hard time swallowing that this whole thing is a ruse for killing the train. Maybe Anderson used the plan of breaking the train in two and busing the gap as a ruse to get more funding to continue the status quo?
I kind of doubt that was "plan A". I suspect the guiding principle was "no hand-to-mouth funding/no sending good money for a short term solution".
So, with no real funding plan in place, there were two real options. Don't run the train in the gap at all or bustitution. Amtrak chose the latter.
I would think the "no train" option would be the one you'd pick if you were trying to get others to extort money from Congress for you.
The only problem with the money that seems to have appeared is it still appears that Amtrak is on the hook for $3M per year to keep the line maintained. The legislation requires Amtrak to spend that money there. This is really just more Congressional micro-management of Amtrak. I hope Amtrak can make the best of it.
oltmannd .....it still appears that Amtrak is on the hook for $3M per year to keep the line maintained.
Is Amtrak committed for any up-front capital expenditures to upgrade the line to required passenger train speeds? This would be in addition to the $3 million.
Rio Grande Valley, CFI,CFII
I don't think that Anderson is that stupid, to ignor the wishes of Congress. How he really feels about the SWC, is unknown, and may remain that way.
As far as extorting money from Congress goes, no one has probably done a better job of this than airline and trucking industries, over the past century, outside of course, the Pentagon and the 16 or 17 national security agencies. The Deep State gets what it wants. This of course, also includes the giant international corporations and the top one-tenth of one per cent "earners" of our citizenry.
I believe it is best to keep the SWC on its current route, because of the apparent rejection of the BNSF to reroute it via Amarillo, and the lack of any reasonable alternatives (including killing the train altogether). Amtrak, with the help of BNSF and the ajacent states, will hopefully all step-up to accomplish this.
.......Edward Johnson (RR Johnson)
charlie hebdo Maybe Anderson used the plan of breaking the train in two and busing the gap as a ruse to get more funding to continue the status quo?
I think that the claimed necessity of breaking the route into two stubs because of the absence of PTC was the ruse.
Bob Johnston's article in the Sept. '18 issue of Trains magazine makes it sound like Anderson's presentation was careful to avoid mentioning any benefit that the Chief offered. '
Had the presentation been a solicitation for more funding, I'm sure it would have been extolling "benefits" worth-dying-for to save.
While this is old (1941) and I suspect that the AT&SF had similar PR films, this is what the major railroads used to provide for passengers. Note that mention is made that the dining car is not a profit center. And since CSX was a piedmont based RR, smoking was approved, even in the dining car.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-vgXt3zVvlo
Electroliner 1935 While this is old (1941) and I suspect that the AT&SF had similar PR films, this is what the major railroads used to provide for passengers. Note that mention is made that the dining car is not a profit center. And since CSX was a piedmont based RR, smoking was approved, even in the dining car. Chesapeake & Ohio Railroad newsreel - "George Washington Railroad" - 1941 Trains https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-vgXt3zVvlo
If you look around on YouTube you will find most every railroad in the 30's 40's 50's had some kind of publicity film made for their passenger srvice.
RailvtThis is really an attempt to cost shift. Amtrak claims to favor new trains in Colorado, Kansas, and Oklahoma in lieu of the SW CHIEF. But it knows perfectly well these trains will never run. Services like the suggested "Front Range Corridor" from Cheyenne, WY to Pueblo, CO would require 100% state support, as would a new Chicago to KC mini Corridor. More improbably, these new services would require multi-state compacts.
After reviewing Amtrak's proposed schedule for the new bus-bridge routing, I'm surprised they don't lengthen the bus segment by a coupkle hundred miles at each end, so that the remaining rail segments both fall under 750 miles, thus requiring state funding.
I am still really boiling angry on this issue. To say that bus bridge is Safer!!!! than a railroad protected by automatic block signals and automatic train-stop is so rediculous as to indicate mental incompetence.
And to assume that ridership will hold steady with a bus bridge indicates mental incompetence as well. But is less important.
Amtrak needs a new Chief and as soon as possible!
I think I'd better start my own regular letter-writing campaign to Congressmen and Senators.
Am I correct in thinking that the SWC route between Albuquerque & Dodge City has ATS. In the current Trains article with pictures of semaphore signals, I don't see any induction "shoes" anywhere in the photos. Are they located some distance from the signals which is why I don't see them?
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