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Minnesota Dreaming

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Posted by schlimm on Thursday, March 3, 2016 5:59 PM

MikeF90
I like to see expansion of train travel between large metro areas

Two large metro areas NOT currently served are Columbus, OH MSA (1,967,066) and Phoenix MSA (4,489,109).

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Posted by dakotafred on Thursday, March 3, 2016 5:07 PM

There is an Indian casino at Hinckley, about midway on the route and popular with Twin Cities people, on which a lot of hopes are pinned for ridership. The tribe may even have promised to help with sponsorship.

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Posted by MikeF90 on Thursday, March 3, 2016 4:52 PM

schlimm
1. From MSP (a large metro area) to Duluth (metro area <300K) is only end to end. If you examine a map, you will see there is not a whole lot between the two metro areas. Once you leave the TC, might as well run non-stop. The existing lines are not anywhere near a 90 mph condition, not even 79 mph.

2. Interstate 35 is a pretty good road running parallel.

Exactly the point. Having driven it, this a very pleasant two hour road trip and is rarely congested except near M-SP. 

I like to see expansion of train travel between large metro areas, and the pleasant city of Duluth does Not qualify at this time. There are many other markets that deserve preference for public or private investment.

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Posted by Wizlish on Thursday, March 3, 2016 2:17 PM

schlimm
1. From MSP (a large metro area) to Duluth (metro area <300K) is only end to end. If you examine a map, you will see there is not a whole lot between the two metro areas. Once you leave the TC, might as well run non-stop. The existing lines are not anywhere near a 90 mph condition, not even 79 mph. 2. Interstate 35 is a pretty good road running parallel.

Makes me really, REALLY want to see their data and their assumptions. 

Specifically including whether they expect the 90 to 110 mph upgrading to be as (relatively) simple and cheap with modern equipment, materials, and techniques as some of the work in Illinois was 'supposed' to be...

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Posted by schlimm on Thursday, March 3, 2016 1:43 PM

Wizlish

 

 
schlimm
How can anyone compare Duluth-MSP to CHI-MKE for ridership? What business is in Duluth TODAY that would create a one million annual ridership?

 

I get the idea that much of this is not 'end-to-end' traffic.  I also wonder whether roads in this corridor might be so poor that a good 90-mph-plus service represents a reasonable alternative for many trips that would otherwise 'not be taken'.

On the other time, note the very significant invocation of the word TIGER in this report.  If you're going to apply for grant money quick, it makes sense to start with good-looking approximation numbers.  Explain exactly where the folks are supposed to come from after the grant award period, perhaps...

 

1.  From MSP (a large metro area) to Duluth (metro area <300K) is only end to end.   If you examine a map, you will see there is not a whole lot between the two metro areas.  Once you leave the TC, might as well run non-stop.  The existing lines are not anywhere near a 90 mph condition, not even 79 mph.

2. Interstate 35 is a pretty good road running parallel.

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Posted by CMStPnP on Thursday, March 3, 2016 1:06 PM

schlimm
How can anyone compare Duluth-MSP to CHI-MKE for ridership?  What business is in Duluth TODAY that would create a one million annual ridership?

I agree, hate to say it but the Amtrak numbers also seem a little suspect to me but the Twin Cities is a rather large metroplex.     No idea what is up in Duluth and last time I was there it looked a lot smaller than Green Bay, WI.     Green Bay at least has both paper mills and small to medium sized ship building just to the North so Green Bay and just North.....plenty of industrial.....sucking up raw materials.    And then there is ore mining even a little further north of the Shipbuilding.

I think a better bet would be restoring passenger service to Green Bay, WI via the Fox River Valley (Fond Du Lac, Oshkosh, Appleton).

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Posted by Wizlish on Thursday, March 3, 2016 11:25 AM

schlimm
How can anyone compare Duluth-MSP to CHI-MKE for ridership? What business is in Duluth TODAY that would create a one million annual ridership?

I get the idea that much of this is not 'end-to-end' traffic.  I also wonder whether roads in this corridor might be so poor that a good 90-mph-plus service represents a reasonable alternative for many trips that would otherwise 'not be taken'.

On the other time, note the very significant invocation of the word TIGER in this report.  If you're going to apply for grant money quick, it makes sense to start with good-looking approximation numbers.  Explain exactly where the folks are supposed to come from after the grant award period, perhaps...

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Posted by schlimm on Thursday, March 3, 2016 6:58 AM

CMStPnP
Amtrak's ridership projections of 750,000 riders the first year with just 4 frequencies of 90 mph trains with anticipation ridership will hit up to 1,000,000 with more trains.    Most annual support costs recovered from fare box............similar performance to current Chicago-Milwaukee corridor.

How can anyone compare Duluth-MSP to CHI-MKE for ridership?  What business is in Duluth TODAY that would create a one million annual ridership?

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Posted by CMStPnP on Thursday, March 3, 2016 12:46 AM

So here is the 1979 schedule on the former Amtrak North Star (see link below).    Note the sleeping car service and the very convienent times departing Chicago and arriving the Twin Cities, business travelers loved the setup.     Later the train was cut back to just Twin Cities to Duluth only service and the departure times from the Twin Cities to Duluth and vice versa were only changed slightly..........not a lot of experimentation with more convienent times departing the Twin Cities.

http://www.timetables.org/full.php?group=19791001&item=0040

 

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Posted by CMStPnP on Thursday, March 3, 2016 12:17 AM

schlimm

Why would there be that much business these days to Duluth other than in summer, from the TC, much less to/from Chicago?  

Amtrak's ridership projections of 750,000 riders the first year with just 4 frequencies of 90 mph trains with anticipation ridership will hit up to 1,000,000 with more trains.    Most annual support costs recovered from fare box............similar performance to current Chicago-Milwaukee corridor.    Here is the full story:

https://csanders429.wordpress.com/tag/amtraks-north-star/

 As I posted long ago somewhere in these Forums, Amtraks overnight North Star train to MSP from Chicago and Milwaukee was popular with business travelers to the Twin Cities because the departure and arrival times to Chicago were pretty convienent..     Departure from MSP to Duluth was not all that great so they could not show competitive figures MSP to Duluth.     So with these new corridor trains with costs shared between Wisconsin and Minnesota 50/50, it's thought both states could create what amounts to a self sufficient cooridor with minimal annual subsidy.

If the projections are correct, it would improve the Economy of Duluth / Superior by making them more accessible.......more companies would be attracted there by frequent trains to the Twin Cities.     Ultimately thats what has both Wisconsin and Minnesota salvating.

My own opinion is they probably have the traffic in the Summer because of tourism and rich folks from the Twin Cities accessing their Summer homes up there.    Winter.......I would be real curious where the traffic is comming from.

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Posted by schlimm on Wednesday, March 2, 2016 9:54 PM

Why would there be that much business these days to Duluth other than in summer, from the TC, much less to/from Chicago?  

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Wednesday, March 2, 2016 8:18 PM

Could only be a success if one train continued MSP <> CHI as a night train and night train from Duluth connected with Builder. 

But same old problem where do you get equipment ?

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Posted by schlimm on Wednesday, March 2, 2016 7:49 AM

Please explain how such a service makes sense.  Duluth itself has a population of only 86,265 and in decline since 1960.  Duluth (Twin Ports) MSA has a population of 279,711.  The RoW is inadequate; it is paralled by I 35 and there are few communities of any size in between.

http://www.duluthnewstribune.com/opinion/our-view/3955686-our-view-train-duluth-when-not-if

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Posted by MidlandMike on Tuesday, March 1, 2016 9:53 PM

The line has to go thru a small corner of Wisconsin, so it probably won't happen.

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Posted by SD70M-2Dude on Tuesday, March 1, 2016 7:47 PM

dakotafred

Ridership is projected at up to 800,000 passengers a year.

Famous last keywords.  But seriously a Duluth link makes sense and if this gets the money flowing to upgrade track and build it more power to them.

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Posted by petitnj on Tuesday, March 1, 2016 6:23 PM

These SWAG's are trying to get the numbers high enough to justify the Federal expenditure. This might be the case where the ridership cannot be estimated until they start running the train. I hope this line can be reestablished and we can see if it succeeds. This is the modern version of statistical studies when wild guesses are used to justify the expenditures. In years past, one would establish the train and then continue it it if the riders show up. 

 

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Minnesota Dreaming
Posted by dakotafred on Tuesday, March 1, 2016 5:00 PM

A story in today's NewsWire quotes a Superior, Wisc., newspaper as reporting that a "downsized" Northern Lights Express project, of which we've heard before, would feature FOUR round trips daily between Minneapolis and Superior-Duluth, Minn., with four stops and AVERAGING 60 mph. Ridership is projected at up to 800,000 passengers a year.

"Downsized"? Gosh, from what?

This level of service would surely be unmatched anywhere in the U.S. outside the Northeast Corridor and maybe, one day, Chicago-St. Louis. My questions for the Minnesota Department of Transportation begin with where they think they're going to find 274 passengers for 2,920 trains a year between Minneapolis and Duluth. I'd also like to know how they think they're going to manage that 60 mph, start to stop, on this old freight-only line.

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