A story in today's NewsWire quotes a Superior, Wisc., newspaper as reporting that a "downsized" Northern Lights Express project, of which we've heard before, would feature FOUR round trips daily between Minneapolis and Superior-Duluth, Minn., with four stops and AVERAGING 60 mph. Ridership is projected at up to 800,000 passengers a year.
"Downsized"? Gosh, from what?
This level of service would surely be unmatched anywhere in the U.S. outside the Northeast Corridor and maybe, one day, Chicago-St. Louis. My questions for the Minnesota Department of Transportation begin with where they think they're going to find 274 passengers for 2,920 trains a year between Minneapolis and Duluth. I'd also like to know how they think they're going to manage that 60 mph, start to stop, on this old freight-only line.
These SWAG's are trying to get the numbers high enough to justify the Federal expenditure. This might be the case where the ridership cannot be estimated until they start running the train. I hope this line can be reestablished and we can see if it succeeds. This is the modern version of statistical studies when wild guesses are used to justify the expenditures. In years past, one would establish the train and then continue it it if the riders show up.
dakotafred Ridership is projected at up to 800,000 passengers a year.
Ridership is projected at up to 800,000 passengers a year.
Famous last keywords. But seriously a Duluth link makes sense and if this gets the money flowing to upgrade track and build it more power to them.
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The line has to go thru a small corner of Wisconsin, so it probably won't happen.
Please explain how such a service makes sense. Duluth itself has a population of only 86,265 and in decline since 1960. Duluth (Twin Ports) MSA has a population of 279,711. The RoW is inadequate; it is paralled by I 35 and there are few communities of any size in between.
http://www.duluthnewstribune.com/opinion/our-view/3955686-our-view-train-duluth-when-not-if
C&NW, CA&E, MILW, CGW and IC fan
Could only be a success if one train continued MSP <> CHI as a night train and night train from Duluth connected with Builder.
But same old problem where do you get equipment ?
Why would there be that much business these days to Duluth other than in summer, from the TC, much less to/from Chicago?
schlimm Why would there be that much business these days to Duluth other than in summer, from the TC, much less to/from Chicago?
Amtrak's ridership projections of 750,000 riders the first year with just 4 frequencies of 90 mph trains with anticipation ridership will hit up to 1,000,000 with more trains. Most annual support costs recovered from fare box............similar performance to current Chicago-Milwaukee corridor. Here is the full story:
https://csanders429.wordpress.com/tag/amtraks-north-star/
As I posted long ago somewhere in these Forums, Amtraks overnight North Star train to MSP from Chicago and Milwaukee was popular with business travelers to the Twin Cities because the departure and arrival times to Chicago were pretty convienent.. Departure from MSP to Duluth was not all that great so they could not show competitive figures MSP to Duluth. So with these new corridor trains with costs shared between Wisconsin and Minnesota 50/50, it's thought both states could create what amounts to a self sufficient cooridor with minimal annual subsidy.
If the projections are correct, it would improve the Economy of Duluth / Superior by making them more accessible.......more companies would be attracted there by frequent trains to the Twin Cities. Ultimately thats what has both Wisconsin and Minnesota salvating.
My own opinion is they probably have the traffic in the Summer because of tourism and rich folks from the Twin Cities accessing their Summer homes up there. Winter.......I would be real curious where the traffic is comming from.
So here is the 1979 schedule on the former Amtrak North Star (see link below). Note the sleeping car service and the very convienent times departing Chicago and arriving the Twin Cities, business travelers loved the setup. Later the train was cut back to just Twin Cities to Duluth only service and the departure times from the Twin Cities to Duluth and vice versa were only changed slightly..........not a lot of experimentation with more convienent times departing the Twin Cities.
http://www.timetables.org/full.php?group=19791001&item=0040
CMStPnPAmtrak's ridership projections of 750,000 riders the first year with just 4 frequencies of 90 mph trains with anticipation ridership will hit up to 1,000,000 with more trains. Most annual support costs recovered from fare box............similar performance to current Chicago-Milwaukee corridor.
How can anyone compare Duluth-MSP to CHI-MKE for ridership? What business is in Duluth TODAY that would create a one million annual ridership?
schlimmHow can anyone compare Duluth-MSP to CHI-MKE for ridership? What business is in Duluth TODAY that would create a one million annual ridership?
I get the idea that much of this is not 'end-to-end' traffic. I also wonder whether roads in this corridor might be so poor that a good 90-mph-plus service represents a reasonable alternative for many trips that would otherwise 'not be taken'.
On the other time, note the very significant invocation of the word TIGER in this report. If you're going to apply for grant money quick, it makes sense to start with good-looking approximation numbers. Explain exactly where the folks are supposed to come from after the grant award period, perhaps...
I agree, hate to say it but the Amtrak numbers also seem a little suspect to me but the Twin Cities is a rather large metroplex. No idea what is up in Duluth and last time I was there it looked a lot smaller than Green Bay, WI. Green Bay at least has both paper mills and small to medium sized ship building just to the North so Green Bay and just North.....plenty of industrial.....sucking up raw materials. And then there is ore mining even a little further north of the Shipbuilding.
I think a better bet would be restoring passenger service to Green Bay, WI via the Fox River Valley (Fond Du Lac, Oshkosh, Appleton).
Wizlish schlimm How can anyone compare Duluth-MSP to CHI-MKE for ridership? What business is in Duluth TODAY that would create a one million annual ridership? I get the idea that much of this is not 'end-to-end' traffic. I also wonder whether roads in this corridor might be so poor that a good 90-mph-plus service represents a reasonable alternative for many trips that would otherwise 'not be taken'. On the other time, note the very significant invocation of the word TIGER in this report. If you're going to apply for grant money quick, it makes sense to start with good-looking approximation numbers. Explain exactly where the folks are supposed to come from after the grant award period, perhaps...
schlimm How can anyone compare Duluth-MSP to CHI-MKE for ridership? What business is in Duluth TODAY that would create a one million annual ridership?
1. From MSP (a large metro area) to Duluth (metro area <300K) is only end to end. If you examine a map, you will see there is not a whole lot between the two metro areas. Once you leave the TC, might as well run non-stop. The existing lines are not anywhere near a 90 mph condition, not even 79 mph.
2. Interstate 35 is a pretty good road running parallel.
schlimm1. From MSP (a large metro area) to Duluth (metro area <300K) is only end to end. If you examine a map, you will see there is not a whole lot between the two metro areas. Once you leave the TC, might as well run non-stop. The existing lines are not anywhere near a 90 mph condition, not even 79 mph. 2. Interstate 35 is a pretty good road running parallel.
Makes me really, REALLY want to see their data and their assumptions.
Specifically including whether they expect the 90 to 110 mph upgrading to be as (relatively) simple and cheap with modern equipment, materials, and techniques as some of the work in Illinois was 'supposed' to be...
Exactly the point. Having driven it, this a very pleasant two hour road trip and is rarely congested except near M-SP.
I like to see expansion of train travel between large metro areas, and the pleasant city of Duluth does Not qualify at this time. There are many other markets that deserve preference for public or private investment.
I smell the strong aroma of boondoggle.
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There is an Indian casino at Hinckley, about midway on the route and popular with Twin Cities people, on which a lot of hopes are pinned for ridership. The tribe may even have promised to help with sponsorship.
MikeF90I like to see expansion of train travel between large metro areas
Two large metro areas NOT currently served are Columbus, OH MSA (1,967,066) and Phoenix MSA (4,489,109).
schlimm MikeF90 I like to see expansion of train travel between large metro areas Two large metro areas NOT currently served are Columbus, OH MSA (1,967,066) and Phoenix MSA (4,489,109).
MikeF90 I like to see expansion of train travel between large metro areas
Two glaring instances -- yet there is no money for correction, even if Amtrak had the initiative to seek it.
There is great disagreement about the proper role of government. Amtrak is one case in which -- looking at support for highways, airports, waterways, other transportation what-have-yous -- and given the ridership support of existing Amtrak services -- I would be in favor of a big outlay, perhaps one-time, to give it a little wiggle room to fill in gaps in the map as above.
I, for one, would rather borrow from China, if necessary, for a tangible public service than for yet more money for the endless entitlement ratholes for the middle class and otherwise. (Two-thirds of the budget and growing.)
dakotafred There is an Indian casino at Hinckley, about midway on the route and popular with Twin Cities people, on which a lot of hopes are pinned for ridership. The tribe may even have promised to help with sponsorship.
This is exactly what I remembered. Thanks for confirming my recollection.
MidlandMike dakotafred There is an Indian casino at Hinckley, about midway on the route and popular with Twin Cities people, on which a lot of hopes are pinned for ridership. The tribe may even have promised to help with sponsorship. This is exactly what I remembered. Thanks for confirming my recollection.
Casinos use chartered buses to bring folks into casinos from the TC for free. There is a huge one in Red Wing but folks don't take the train there, they drive or take the free buses. Unless the casino is right on the RoW, it is unlikely that would generate much traffic.
schlimm Casinos use chartered buses to bring folks into casinos from the TC for free. There is a huge one in Red Wing but folks don't take the train there, they drive or take the free buses. Unless the casino is right on the RoW, it is unlikely that would generate much traffic.
The advantage of buses is greater flexibility of routing and scheduling throughout the day and night. Also curb to door service.
schlimm The advantage of buses is greater flexibility of routing and scheduling throughout the day and night. Also curb to door service.
The buses pick up folks in various areas of the TC, some focusing on small thnis groups such as the Vietnamese and Hmong. They then go directly to the casino, this providing one-seat service. A train cannot compete with that. The service to Duluth would depend on the desire of TC folks to go to the Twin Ports as well as vice versa. Seems unlikely.
As far as metro pairs go, CHI to Rockford has alot more potential than MSP-Duluth. Rockford MSA is 346,360 and the CSA is 447,038 with several population nodes en route (Belvidere, Marengo, Elgin). Blackhawk restoration was planned and work was started. However, CN/IC stalled and backed out on an agreement, the route was switched to UP/CNW west of Elgin and then the Illinois financial mess blew up.
schlimm As far as metro pairs go, CHI to Rockford has alot more potential than MSP-Duluth. Rockford MSA is 346,360 and the CSA is 447,038 with several population nodes en route (Belvidere, Marengo, Elgin). Blackhawk restoration was planned and work was started. However, CN/IC stalled and backed out on an agreement, the route was switched to UP/CNW west of Elgin and then the Illinois financial mess blew up.
Chicago to Rockford is not going to get funding from MN or WI.
I do actually think Illiniois will resume the project at some point. I think they should invite a private-public partnership in on some of this stuff to speed it up instead of the go it alone with taxpayer money though........thats what is slowing illinois down. They don't seem to want to experiment like Indiana has with privately run freeways and with open bid on Amtrak routes.
Euclid It seems that there has always been a backdrop of advocacy for bringing back passenger service from Twin Cities to Duluth. The point seems to be mostly to add passenger rail to Minnesota. So when looking for two points to connect, Twin Cities and Duluth are obvious. The issue of whether or not it would pay for itself is not critical to the proposals, although there is always that premise of “build it and they will come.” I cannot imagine that many would find a practical reason to take the train if it were available. The plan would need to be structured around the train schedule, and would be subject to delays. Although it would take people to downtown Duluth, there are attractions in Duluth that are spread out some distance, which would require secondary transportation. For cars, there are not parking problems in Duluth that could be avoided by taking the train. The road route has a 75 mph speed limit nearly the entire distance, and there is nothing that requires slowing down. You can probably go 80 mph all the way and not risk a ticket. The traffic is never dense enough to require slowing down. The only potential issue with driving is a construction zone, but that can be determined in advance. The only markets that I can see are people who don’t own a car and want to see Duluth; and people who want to experience a train ride.
It's actually Twin Cities to Duluth/Superior. I am pretty sure the project is dead without the discount provided by Wisconsin DOT money. And given that Wisconsin DOT is participating........don't you think it is a little premature to presume the depot will be in downtown Duluth?
I feel the project is being looked at within the context of eventual increased frequencies between Chicago and MSP and not in isolation of that. Wisconsin DOT spent boatloads of money (in the hundreds of millions) upgrading Northwoods airports to accomodate rich folks from Southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois. Which I would say is a fairly small constituency. They did it not to carry political favor but to expand tourism and tourist spending in the North of Wisconsin which increases land values and taxes up there. That was their logic back in the 1970's to 1990's when they went on a rural airport spending binge back then.
I see the building up of the St. Paul to Duluth / Superior corridor as in the same context. They are not doing it for the pople living there now. They are doing it to attract tourism, companies and people to those two cities, increase land values and collection of taxes......just like the rural airport expansion and upgrade projects earlier.
The plan shows stops in both Superior and Duluth.
I will say, if I want to go to Duluth, they'd better NOT dump me in Superior, which is, well, a dump, as well as a pretty long taxi ride.
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