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HSR around the world

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Posted by schlimm on Wednesday, April 8, 2015 7:26 AM

blue streak 1
Schlimm:   As asked the question was to compare  " lane miles " Also the population of China is how many times that of the USA.  Third we should have a comparsion of the expressway connections between major cities.

I do not now how many road lanes there are in China or the US.  Do you?  Maybe you should look it up since that is so important to you.  You originally said: " IMO the 800# bear in China is the lack of roads and automobiles."     which says just that, that there are few [modern] roads or automobiles.   I really do not know what your point is.  China has 4X as many people but a similar area, 3.7 mil. sq. miles vs US 3.6 mil. sq. miles..

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Posted by gardendance on Wednesday, April 8, 2015 4:11 AM

CMStPnP

 if you ask the average Mexican on the street what they think.........they do not like it and wish the government spent the money on either a more advanced and cleaner system or on an alternative means.

I know I'm picking a minor nit in an off topic item, but since when has the Mexico City subway been considered dirty? The photos I've seen show it to be a lot cleaner than my beloved home city Philadelphia's subway.

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Tuesday, April 7, 2015 8:05 PM

schlimm
 
blue streak 1

IMO the 800# bear in China is the lack of roads and automobiles.  Road lane miles per capital is probably very much less than the USA.  Even the NEC may have many more lane miles than China.  Any one have access to the figures ?

 

 

 

 
As is typical with regard to China, many folk's impressions are based on conditions 10-20 years ago.  As of 2014, China had the most miles of expressway of any nation in the world (69,560 mi) while the US had  47,856 Ditto with the number of vehicles: 240 million (120 million autos) as of the end of 2012.   In the US in 2012, the total was 254 million vehicles.
 

Schlimm:   As asked the question was to compare  " lane miles "

Also the population of China is how many times that of the USA.  Third we should have a comparsion of the expressway connections between major cities.

 

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Posted by schlimm on Tuesday, April 7, 2015 5:33 PM

blue streak 1

IMO the 800# bear in China is the lack of roads and automobiles.  Road lane miles per capital is probably very much less than the USA.  Even the NEC may have many more lane miles than China.  Any one have access to the figures ?

 

 
As is typical with regard to China, many folk's impressions are based on conditions 10-20 years ago.  As of 2014, China had the most miles of expressway of any nation in the world (69,560 mi) while the US had  47,856 Ditto with the number of vehicles: 240 million (120 million autos) as of the end of 2012.   In the US in 2012, the total was 254 million vehicles.

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Posted by PNWRMNM on Tuesday, April 7, 2015 2:24 PM

Streak,

You hit the nail on the head. In that context investment in rail is probably the most economical choice, even in a communist country.

We choose to invest in the interstate highways and junk our railroads. Fourtunately private management managed to save much of the freight network.

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Tuesday, April 7, 2015 12:23 PM

IMO the 800# bear in China is the lack of roads and automobiles.  Road lane miles per capital is probably very much less than the USA.  Even the NEC may have many more lane miles than China.  Any one have access to the figures ?

 

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Posted by CMStPnP on Monday, April 6, 2015 10:12 PM

schlimm

In 2025, China will have a state-of-the-art 21st century infrastructure to support the largest economy in the world, while we...........

China has a whole host of issues that the United States does not have.    Including the following:

1. Aging Demographic with no meaningful younger demographic to replace it.

2. Lack of the ability to innovate and create their own designs without reverse engineering.....demonstrated most vividly in the lack of patents.   Even the Chinese have mentioned this internally among Communist Party members that it threatens the future.

3. Lack of representative government.

4. Fairly severe pollution and environmental issues.

5. Seem to be hell bent on atagonizing their neighbors with brute military displays and land grabs.

......just to name a few.

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Posted by Phoebe Vet on Sunday, April 5, 2015 9:01 PM

schlimm

In 2025, China will have a state-of-the-art 21st century infrastructure to support the largest economy in the world, while we...........

... will have an even larger military budget than we do now.

Dave

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Posted by schlimm on Sunday, April 5, 2015 8:54 PM

In 2025, China will have a state-of-the-art 21st century infrastructure to support the largest economy in the world, while we...........

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Posted by CMStPnP on Sunday, April 5, 2015 11:30 AM

schlimm

The first article invokes "making an operating profit" as though that were the most important attribute.   That is a typical, but false assumption, especially when all benefits are taken into account.  The article does give support to the idea that HSR makes sense only in shrter, densely populated corridors.  In the US, that remains the east coast (not just NEC), CA, possibly TX and some midwestern routes.   Less than high speed (LHSR) might have additional corridors to link.

The second confirms what I have said.  The HSR (CHR) in China is very heavily patronized and not just by the wealthy, which should be obvious, given the numbers cited.

Lets see I believe there was even a graph in there that only 13% of the HSR traffic came from the automobile, the rest was bus, air and conventional trains running on the same route.    In fact I think the study pointed out that most of the traffic growth of HSR was not from other modes but from HSR riders taking multiple instead of single trips.

Yes it does make a difference if the service shows a profit.    I know that some political persuasions believe that money grows on trees and you only need to run out to the backyard and pluck a few dollars off (or you just raises taxes in perpetuity....a strategy that got Illinois, especially Chicago in the current trouble it is in today).    

However, the reality is either profits have to pay for expansion or your going into debt financing expansion with no financial return.    Debt has a nasty habbit of slowly accumulating and building along with debt service payments to support it.     While not really mentioned in the above articles it is clearly mentioned in the below article what impact this disregard for debt in exchange for HSR construction might have on China as well as demonstrating the impact on the airlines as well....

http://www.sabreairlinesolutions.com/pdfs/ChallengesinChina.pdf

 

 

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Posted by schlimm on Sunday, April 5, 2015 9:38 AM

The first article invokes "making an operating profit" as though that were the most important attribute.   That is a typical, but false assumption, especially when all benefits are taken into account.  The article does give support to the idea that HSR makes sense only in shrter, densely populated corridors.  In the US, that remains the east coast (not just NEC), CA, possibly TX and some midwestern routes.   Less than high speed (LHSR) might have additional corridors to link.

The second confirms what I have said.  The HSR (CHR) in China is very heavily patronized and not just by the wealthy, which should be obvious, given the numbers cited.

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Posted by CMStPnP on Sunday, April 5, 2015 8:24 AM
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Posted by schlimm on Saturday, April 4, 2015 8:42 PM

CMStPnP
Based on many of the Chinese who live there saying so.   In fact if the government would allow an opinion poll on the matter I think you would see that most Chinese feel HSR benefits the upper class and tourists more than it does them.

Again, based on what?  You said correctly there are no opinion polls on that. [There are plenty of opinion polls for market research, BTW.]  So what is your source?   Mine is based on personal observations as well as discussions with many Chinese friends.

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Posted by CMStPnP on Saturday, April 4, 2015 7:20 PM

schlimm
Based on what?   Try hanging out in the Shanghai, Beijing or Hangzhou stations and observe.

Based on many of the Chinese who live there saying so.   In fact if the government would allow an opinion poll on the matter I think you would see that most Chinese feel HSR benefits the upper class and tourists more than it does them.

It's one of those minor problems you have when you do not have representative government.   Government does what it thinks is best and it might appear to be the best but it falls far short of what the mass of people wanted.

Somewbat akin to the rubber tired Mexico City Metro system, yes a lot of people ride it (due to no other alternative) but if you ask the average Mexican on the street what they think.........they do not like it and wish the government spent the money on either a more advanced and cleaner system or on an alternative means.

The decision to buy the rubber tired metro system was not based on opinion poll or plebicite, bond issue voted on, etc.     It was just one government planner who thought he knew what was best for Mexico City pushing the plan through.

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Posted by schlimm on Friday, April 3, 2015 8:39 PM

Wizlish

 

 
schlimm
Try hanging out in the Shanghai, Beijing or Hangzhou stations and observe.

 

But we all know that patronage doesn't tell us much, if anything, about practical return on investment!  If we looked at the traffic on the New York Connecting Railroad we might think there's plenty of profit.  But even more cost ... and then factor in what will be involved with the Portal project, the Gateway tunnels, and the renovations in the North River tunnels.

I have not seen reliable numbers on the cost of the Chinese HSR system, but I suspect he is justified in thinking it will be a 'long time' before revenue from HSR pays back its capital cost ... let alone a fair measure of opportunity cost involved in its allocation of capital.

Not that there is anything wrong with building HSR as a 'jobs program', especially if it's using so much of the money from our balance-of-trade deficit... in ways that do not involve purchasing our real-estate or productive capability, etc.  Wish it would work here.  (Wish the Chinese could be inveigled into paying to build it here...)

 

There are other ways of measuring ROI besides revenue or profit as a percentage of funds invested in a project, particularly when infrastructure and public services and indirect benefits are included in the numerator.

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Posted by Wizlish on Friday, April 3, 2015 12:41 PM

schlimm
Try hanging out in the Shanghai, Beijing or Hangzhou stations and observe.

But we all know that patronage doesn't tell us much, if anything, about practical return on investment!  If we looked at the traffic on the New York Connecting Railroad we might think there's plenty of profit.  But even more cost ... and then factor in what will be involved with the Portal project, the Gateway tunnels, and the renovations in the North River tunnels.

I have not seen reliable numbers on the cost of the Chinese HSR system, but I suspect he is justified in thinking it will be a 'long time' before revenue from HSR pays back its capital cost ... let alone a fair measure of opportunity cost involved in its allocation of capital.

Not that there is anything wrong with building HSR as a 'jobs program', especially if it's using so much of the money from our balance-of-trade deficit... in ways that do not involve purchasing our real-estate or productive capability, etc.  Wish it would work here.  (Wish the Chinese could be inveigled into paying to build it here...)

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Posted by schlimm on Friday, April 3, 2015 6:58 AM

CMStPnP

Well I can't speak for Korea but China I think overdid it with HSR and was just using it as a jobs program.    I think it will be a long time before China sees the return on investment it spent on HSR.

 

Based on what?   Try hanging out in the Shanghai, Beijing or Hangzhou stations and observe.

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Friday, April 3, 2015 12:02 AM
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Posted by CMStPnP on Thursday, April 2, 2015 8:39 PM

Well I can't speak for Korea but China I think overdid it with HSR and was just using it as a jobs program.    I think it will be a long time before China sees the return on investment it spent on HSR.

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Posted by schlimm on Thursday, April 2, 2015 12:36 PM

 "HSR around the world.  Korea opens another section of HSR"

It would be even greater if more forum members would be happy if the headline were "HSR around the US.  [choose a state] opens another section of HSR."

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HSR around the world
Posted by blue streak 1 on Thursday, April 2, 2015 8:54 AM

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