Sam1 In an earlier post I expressed some doubt as to the extent people arriving in Dallas by high speed rail, or any other commercial mode for the matter, would use public transport to get to their final Dallas area destination. I suggested further that the results from the Orange Line, which goes to DFW International Airport, could provide an indication of how many passengers might connect to or from local transit. Here are a few thoughts regarding the Orange Line from Roger Jones's Transportation Blog, which is a regular feature in the Dallas Morning News. This blog data was posted on November 7th. According to DART, a little over 1,000 people per day are using the Orange Line to get to and from DFW International Airport. Whether it is 1,000 people or 1,000 riders is not clear. Since DART counts passengers when they get on a train or bus, I suspect the count is 500 people per day. DART's spokesperson also said that they - DART - see a lot of people on the train with luggage, but he did not provide a count or explain what he meant by a lot of people. According to DART Chief Gary Thomas, DART expects most of the people who use the Orange Line will be airport workers. DFW International has more than 60,000 on site workers, making it one of the largest concentrations of employees in the Metroplex. The early figures suggest that the Orange Line is attracting a substantial number of riders to and from the airport. But the number of airline passengers appears to be small. This does not bode well for the argument that people arriving in Dallas or Houston on a high speed train will opt for public transport to reach their final destination.
In an earlier post I expressed some doubt as to the extent people arriving in Dallas by high speed rail, or any other commercial mode for the matter, would use public transport to get to their final Dallas area destination. I suggested further that the results from the Orange Line, which goes to DFW International Airport, could provide an indication of how many passengers might connect to or from local transit.
Here are a few thoughts regarding the Orange Line from Roger Jones's Transportation Blog, which is a regular feature in the Dallas Morning News. This blog data was posted on November 7th.
According to DART, a little over 1,000 people per day are using the Orange Line to get to and from DFW International Airport. Whether it is 1,000 people or 1,000 riders is not clear. Since DART counts passengers when they get on a train or bus, I suspect the count is 500 people per day.
DART's spokesperson also said that they - DART - see a lot of people on the train with luggage, but he did not provide a count or explain what he meant by a lot of people.
According to DART Chief Gary Thomas, DART expects most of the people who use the Orange Line will be airport workers. DFW International has more than 60,000 on site workers, making it one of the largest concentrations of employees in the Metroplex.
The early figures suggest that the Orange Line is attracting a substantial number of riders to and from the airport. But the number of airline passengers appears to be small. This does not bode well for the argument that people arriving in Dallas or Houston on a high speed train will opt for public transport to reach their final destination.
I never understood why the speed limits on the Orange line as it approaches the Belt Line Road crossing are so slow or even for that matter so slow near Love Field on the elevated portion. Have my doubts the Orange Line will be trully successful unless they can increase speed limits on it. Especially in the areas where it is traversing the farmer fields...........I mean C'mon put the petal to the metal. It is sheer torture almost to ride it on some portions due to the slow speed......and watching common birds fly past the train in parallel at a faster clip.
dakotafredas one congressman reproached another in the 19th century, "never opens his mouth without subtracting from the sum total of human knowledge."
Thanks for that great quip; now, unfortunately, more true than ever.
C&NW, CA&E, MILW, CGW and IC fan
Overmod dakotafred The key, Milwaukee, is what is copyrighted material. Newspaper stories do not fall into that category. The key is, indeed, what is copyrighted material, and a newspaper (like other periodicals) can file in the Catalog of Copyright Entries... at which point its stories would, I think, indeed 'fall into that category." And it would appear that there are copyright renewals for the Dallas Morning News in the online CCE up to 2010, which would strongly indicate to me that it would be wise to secure permission for that story before posting to a list that observes copyright (as I believe Kalmbach's do). I think, given the circumstances, you might want to edit the post to link to the content rather than copying or quoting it directly. Personally, I appreciated having the whole article visible directly in the post, without having to click on it and then disable a bunch of associated site spam in NoScript, so this isn't intended as a criticism, just an observation. My understanding is that newspaper articles under copyright qualify as 'works for hire' and have the associated 95-year protection. That's been the case at least since 1992, to my knowledge.
dakotafred The key, Milwaukee, is what is copyrighted material. Newspaper stories do not fall into that category.
The key, Milwaukee, is what is copyrighted material. Newspaper stories do not fall into that category.
The key is, indeed, what is copyrighted material, and a newspaper (like other periodicals) can file in the Catalog of Copyright Entries... at which point its stories would, I think, indeed 'fall into that category."
And it would appear that there are copyright renewals for the Dallas Morning News in the online CCE up to 2010, which would strongly indicate to me that it would be wise to secure permission for that story before posting to a list that observes copyright (as I believe Kalmbach's do). I think, given the circumstances, you might want to edit the post to link to the content rather than copying or quoting it directly.
Personally, I appreciated having the whole article visible directly in the post, without having to click on it and then disable a bunch of associated site spam in NoScript, so this isn't intended as a criticism, just an observation.
My understanding is that newspaper articles under copyright qualify as 'works for hire' and have the associated 95-year protection. That's been the case at least since 1992, to my knowledge.
dakotafredNot so, Milwaukee. Newspaper stories, at least, are fair game for free dissemination, even when "copyrighted" (as the rare story will claim, in a tag). Even attribution is a courtesy, not a legal requirement. I speak as 20-year newspaperman.
I would clarify that with the Moderators here because typically on other websites cut and pastes are grounds for suspension as well as a violation of the terms of service.
This is from the TRAINS TERMS OF USE thread in the first post of the first forum on the list:
CMStPnP ^^^ Not trying to get you in trouble but I can tell you as a long ago Moderator myself, you can't cut and paste a news article like that to the Trains website without exposing Kalmbach publishing to a lawsuit by either the author or original content owner. Linking is OK but a direct cut and paste is going to get this website in trouble fast.
^^^ Not trying to get you in trouble but I can tell you as a long ago Moderator myself, you can't cut and paste a news article like that to the Trains website without exposing Kalmbach publishing to a lawsuit by either the author or original content owner. Linking is OK but a direct cut and paste is going to get this website in trouble fast.
I modified my original post re: DART's plans for expanded transit in downtown Dallas. I noted that most of the plans, at this point, are an unfunded wish list.
The Dallas Morning News article is mostly about DART's and the City Council's wish list for expanded rail in downtown Dallas. The list has been around for a long time. Funding is the biggest challenge.
Here is a test. Ride the light rail line late at night. The Red or Blue Lines will do nicely. Look closely at your fellow passengers. Then ask yourself this question? How many business people, arriving in Dallas on a late night high speed train from Houston, are likely to want to chance riding on public transit in Dallas, or any major American city for that matter, late at night? Or at anytime for many of them?
I lived in Uptown Dallas for more than four years. Most of my neighbors, who for the most part were pretty well off, did not use public transit, even though the McKinney Avenue Trolley was nearly at their doorstep. I was a rare exception. I rode it most days.
I don't believe that a significant percentage of people arriving in Dallas, either by rail or air, are going to use public transit, at least not as long as they have better options to get around.
Sam1 Whether DART is accelerating transit projects near downtown Dallas or anywhere else in anticipation of the Texas Central Railway project is not supported. There are a number of enhancements underway that were started before the plan for the Texas Central Railway was announced, i.e. completion of the McKinney Avenue Trolley loop along St. Paul, the Oak Cliff streetcar line, and the replacement of the rail along the light rail transit way in downtown. The extension of the McKinney Avenue Trolley tracks has reach Federal Street, which is one block short of the St. Paul light rail station. It will be another six to nine months before the project is complete, and cars can begin to run to Federal Street, where they will loop over to Olive Street, and run back towards McKinney Avenue. The line will not come close to any conceivable high speed railway station in Dallas, even if the Texas Central Railway uses Union Station. The Oak Cliff streetcar line runs from Union Station - not the convention center - across the Houston Street Viaduct to Colorado Blvd, where it turns to go a block or two to North Beckley Avenue and stops. Which is great if one is gong to El. Fenix or the CVS Pharmacy! There is been a lot of chatter about building a second transit way through downtown Dallas for the light rail system. Unfortunately, no one has found the money to build it. As the Dallas Morning News opined in a column, there is not likely to be any money for it. If the Texas Central Railway uses Union Station, passengers would be able to connect to the TRE, Oak Cliff streetcar, and DART light rail, as well as several bus routes. How many of them would do so is problematic. As it is only 1.8 per cent of the people who live in the cities served by DART's light rail system use it. If the Texas Central Railway decides on a terminal in the southern part of the county, the number of people who might want to connect to public transit is really questionable. To put it bluntly, most of those who will be able to afford to ride a high speed railway train from Houston to Dallas are not going to ride on a transit vehicle peopled largely by low income people, which is the predominate population in southern Dallas County. An interesting test case, in time at least, will be to see how many people ride the Orange Line from DFW Airport to downtown and vice versa. I rode it a month or so ago. Very few passengers went to the airport, although the service is still new.
Whether DART is accelerating transit projects near downtown Dallas or anywhere else in anticipation of the Texas Central Railway project is not supported.
There are a number of enhancements underway that were started before the plan for the Texas Central Railway was announced, i.e. completion of the McKinney Avenue Trolley loop along St. Paul, the Oak Cliff streetcar line, and the replacement of the rail along the light rail transit way in downtown.
The extension of the McKinney Avenue Trolley tracks has reach Federal Street, which is one block short of the St. Paul light rail station. It will be another six to nine months before the project is complete, and cars can begin to run to Federal Street, where they will loop over to Olive Street, and run back towards McKinney Avenue. The line will not come close to any conceivable high speed railway station in Dallas, even if the Texas Central Railway uses Union Station.
The Oak Cliff streetcar line runs from Union Station - not the convention center - across the Houston Street Viaduct to Colorado Blvd, where it turns to go a block or two to North Beckley Avenue and stops. Which is great if one is gong to El. Fenix or the CVS Pharmacy!
There is been a lot of chatter about building a second transit way through downtown Dallas for the light rail system. Unfortunately, no one has found the money to build it. As the Dallas Morning News opined in a column, there is not likely to be any money for it.
If the Texas Central Railway uses Union Station, passengers would be able to connect to the TRE, Oak Cliff streetcar, and DART light rail, as well as several bus routes. How many of them would do so is problematic. As it is only 1.8 per cent of the people who live in the cities served by DART's light rail system use it.
If the Texas Central Railway decides on a terminal in the southern part of the county, the number of people who might want to connect to public transit is really questionable. To put it bluntly, most of those who will be able to afford to ride a high speed railway train from Houston to Dallas are not going to ride on a transit vehicle peopled largely by low income people, which is the predominate population in southern Dallas County.
An interesting test case, in time at least, will be to see how many people ride the Orange Line from DFW Airport to downtown and vice versa. I rode it a month or so ago. Very few passengers went to the airport, although the service is still new.
Some of what you say seems to be in conflict with the recent Morning News article. But then we know the press doesn't always get it right!
By BRANDON FORMBY
Transportation Writer
Members of the Dallas City Council’s transportation committee Monday signaled strong support for a three-pronged $983.4 million expansion of downtown transit.
Meanwhile, the private developer of a high-speed rail line from Dallas to Houston said it’s now focusing on five potential stations, all of which are in the city’s central business district.
Texas Central Railway, the city and Dallas Area Rapid Transit hope to tie together several transit modes. DART sees this as a chance to dramatically reshape the southwest corner of downtown by 2021, when the first bullet trains could connect the state’s two largest metropolitan areas.
DART’s expansion plan includes the first phase of a second downtown light-rail line and a streetcar connection from Oak Cliff’s Bishop Arts District to Uptown’s M-Line trolley. And while that second downtown rail has long been on Dallas and DART’s wish list, officials now believe there’s a good shot at securing what’s long blocked construction: funding.
DART officials have pieced together a list of several funding sources to finance their expansion plans. A key component of the light-rail addition and streetcar extension is $400 million in federal funds earmarked for “core capacity” projects.
Federal authorities urged the agency to apply for the funds after hearing details about its expansion plan, DART president and executive director Gary Thomas told Dallas city leaders.
“We received a fair amount of push to submit on the core capacity bucket of money,” he said.
The other component of DART’s plan will probably be completed first. That piece of the overall expansion will lengthen 28 train stations outside of downtown. That will allow the agency to run an additional car on each train along the Red and Blue lines. That means carrying 493 riders per train instead of the current 329. The downtown stations and Orange and Green lines can already accommodate three cars per train.
DART and Dallas have struggled for years to find financing for a second downtown light-rail track. City Council members indicated excitement that at least a portion of the second line — from Victory to Union stations — could become a reality.
Thomas said the line would probably run underground south of Woodall Rodgers Freeway. The end of the first phase would probably be near Union Station or close by on Young Street. Thomas told city officials that the rest of the new line, which would connect the southwest corner of downtown to Deep Ellum’s existing Green Line, would still be decades away.
“It is extremely smart to go ahead with phase one while we have the potential for federal money,” said Vonciel Jones Hill, chair of Dallas’ Transportation and Trinity River Project Committee.
Bullet train
DART won’t pick the exact route and stations for the second downtown line until after Texas Central Railway announces where it plans to put the end point for its high-speed line from Dallas to Houston. The company originally said it was looking at three general areas — one in downtown and two along Interstate 45. But a company official said Monday the entity has zeroed in on downtown and has five potential spots in mind.
A downtown terminus would put the bullet train near the city’s convention center, its adjacent hotel, Union Station (which now serves two DART lines), the TRE commuter line to Fort Worth, Amtrak and a streetcar that will begin running to Oak Cliff next year.
“It would be speculative to discuss a specific location at this time, but the requirement for any location must include connectivity to existing intermodal transportation (DART, TRE, Amtrak) and future rail lines going to the west, as well as other forms of transportation,” said Travis Kelly, the company’s vice president for government relations.
DART documents show a massive transit-oriented development in that part of downtown that would connect several transportation modes with pedestrian bridges, a possible underground shopping concourse and new office and residential buildings.
The documents identify land occupied by The Dallas Morning News and WFAA-TV (Channel 8) as “potential redevelopment blocks.” Officials with DART and The News’ parent company said the illustrations are just the transit agency’s ways of showing what potential the possible transit hub has for transit-oriented development.
Officials with both entities said there have been no behind-the-scenes discussions about A.H. Belo Corp. selling the site. An A.H. Belo executive said the media company is not marketing the newspaper’s building and has not received any offers on it. Dan Blizzard, A.H. Belo’s senior vice president and secretary, said the company was not involved in DART’s plans for the downtown expansion or the presentation the agency gave to Dallas officials Monday.
“There’s a lot of ideas you could come up with for this site,” Blizzard said of DART’s presentation. “We’ve had zero involvement in those.”
Streetcar plans
DART’s presentation Monday also showed the planned streetcar expansion connecting the Oak Cliff line to the Uptown trolley by cutting across Main Street. But Thomas said that alignment is far from final. He said the line could eventually run along another downtown street.
“We’ve drawn the map to start the conversation,” he said.
Thomas said once the two modes connect on the north side of downtown, DART could run its streetcars on McKinney Avenue Transit Authority’s track through Uptown during the day. Thomas said the old-fashioned trolleys could still operate at night, on weekends and during special events.
MATA chairman and co-founder Phil Cobb said that’s one idea his organization currently opposes. Not that the two agencies are at war over the matter.
“We could be convinced down the road,” he said.
Follow Brandon Formby on Twitter at @brandonformby.
Whether DART is accelerating transit projects near downtown Dallas or anywhere else in anticipation of the Texas Central Railway project is not clear. DART has a long wish list of projects that it would like to implement, but whether it can get the funding is problematic. In any case, completion of most of the projects, according to DART's executive director, may be decades away.
There are a number of enhancements underway that were started before the plan for the Texas Central Railway was announced, i.e. completion of the McKinney Avenue Trolley loop, the Oak Cliff streetcar line, and the replacement of the rail along the light rail transit way in downtown.
The extension of the McKinney Avenue Trolley tracks has reached Federal Street, which is one block short of the St. Paul light rail station. It will be another six to nine months before the project is completed, and cars can begin to run to Federal Street, where they will loop over to Olive Street, and run back towards McKinney Avenue. The line will not come close to any likely high speed railway station in Dallas, even if the Texas Central Railway uses Union Station.
The Oak Cliff streetcar line runs from Union Station - not the convention center - across the Houston Street Viaduct to Colorado Blvd, where it turns to go a block or two to North Beckley Avenue, where it ends. Which is great if one is gong to El. Fenix - one of the oldest Mexican restaurants in Dallas, Methodist Hospital, or CVS Pharmacy!
There is been a lot of chatter about building a second transit way through downtown Dallas for the light rail system. Unfortunately, no one has found the money to fund it. As the Dallas Morning News opined in a column several months ago that there is not likely to be any money for it.
If the Texas Central Railway decides on a terminal in the southern part of the county, the number of people who might want to connect to public transit is questionable.
To put it bluntly, most of those who will be able to afford to ride a high speed railway train from Houston to Dallas are not going to ride on a transit vehicle used largely by low income people, which is most of the population in southern Dallas County.
The number of airline passengers who use the Orange Line to get to and from DFW Airport to downtown and vice versa could provide some indication of whether people coming from Houston on a train would use public transport. I rode the Orange Line a month or so ago. Very few passengers went to the airport, although the service is still new, and many people probably are not aware of it.
Calculating the payback period for a project is a reasonable 50,000 foot technique to determine the likelihood of recovering the investment.
However, unless the project developers plan to pay cash for the project, which is highly unlikely, the debt service cost, which is always calculated using TVM factors, increases the cost of the project. The question of how much is a function of the funding plan.
What is unknown to outsiders are the financing variables that will impact the final cost of the project. Unless one has access to the debt financing plan, he is not able to calculate a tight estimate of the project cost. But he can say that it will be more than the stated cost of the project.
Whether the proposed Dallas/Houston High Speed Railway can be built for $10 billion is unknown. One might want to keep in mind the original cost projections for the California High Speed Railway. The initial project was approximately $32 billion. It grew eventually to nearly $98 billion, before some sanity swept through California, an unusual condition, and the cost of the project was scaled back to $68 billion. And that's before inclusion of the cost of financing.
Gramp Here are a couple of links to recent articles appearing in Houston and Dallas Business Journals. The first one describes where public meetings have recently been held, and links to maps of the routes under consideration. http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/morning_call/2014/10/possible-routes-revealed-for-bullet-train-between.html The second article delves into DART's thinking regarding serving the influx of travelers the bullet trains would bring to central Dallas. Also, comment is made about Southwest Airlines offering long-haul flights from Love Field while reducing short-haul ones. http://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/blog/2014/11/how-dart-is-getting-ready-for-high-speed-rail-in.html Interesting to see how momentum builds.
Here are a couple of links to recent articles appearing in Houston and Dallas Business Journals.
The first one describes where public meetings have recently been held, and links to maps of the routes under consideration.
http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/morning_call/2014/10/possible-routes-revealed-for-bullet-train-between.html
The second article delves into DART's thinking regarding serving the influx of travelers the bullet trains would bring to central Dallas. Also, comment is made about Southwest Airlines offering long-haul flights from Love Field while reducing short-haul ones.
http://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/blog/2014/11/how-dart-is-getting-ready-for-high-speed-rail-in.html
Interesting to see how momentum builds.
Another passenger rail advocacy group, the Midwest High Speed Rail Association, sent this comment in their weekly e-mail:
"Midwesterners who want better public transit should pay attention to an unlikely role model. Texas, known better for its love of the automobile, is moving forward on what they hope will be America’s first operational high-speed rail line. The proposed bullet train between Dallas and Houston is a private enterprise in association with Japanese high-speed rail. The project’s planners recently announced route alternatives, and major decision-makers have taking notice. In response to the route alternatives, Dallas Area Rapid Transit (DART) just decided to accelerate transit projects in downtown Dallas. The goal is to complete upgrades including a new light rail line and streetcar service by the time the bullet train is finished. DART is quickening these plans to convince the high-speed rail planners (Texas Central) to choose the route alternative that terminates in downtown Dallas over two other more distant options. Texas Central has stated a preference for locating the new station near public transit connections. The confluence of high-speed rail and public transit in Dallas shows how the two are so inextricably linked. A high-speed rail line can be the impetus for significant transit expansion because it can bring in millions of additional riders, and make the surrounding transit services more useful and attractive. Additionally, though not the case in Dallas, infrastructure from new high-speed rail projects can often be directly used by existing commuter trains. It's exciting to see other projects, like Dallas' new light rail or the Bay Area's Caltrain electrification, gain momentum because of high-speed rail. We shouldn't be surprised if high-speed rail makes all the difference for other American transit projects too."
I have to say that I think the $10 Billion estimate is excessive given that they have a fairly firm estimate on how many acres of land will be impacted via emeninent domain (I think it was 3-5,000 acres). The route is going to largely follow existing railway ROW and probably even be on it. Some railway ROW in Texas are 200 feet wide with just one track on them............more than enough to add double track HS route. Can't speak for which route they are going to choose but I suspect it is the Union Pacific fomerly the Texas Central (exT&NO) route between Houston and Dallas AND that is definitely a 200 foot wide ROW for the majority of the distance.
I remember that once upon a time....Chicago-Milwaukee was estimated at $5 Billion for a measely 85 miles to upgrade to 150 mph.......that was an over estimate as well, more than likely.
PNWRMNM Don, Agree, except you forgot about the time value of money. $10 B today is about twice the present value of $500 million for 20 years. That is a fine way to make a small fortune out of a big fortune. Mac
Don,
Agree, except you forgot about the time value of money. $10 B today is about twice the present value of $500 million for 20 years. That is a fine way to make a small fortune out of a big fortune.
Mac
If I started down the time value of money path, I'd have quit and gone for another cup of coffee! (That's why I just used a relatively long simple pay-back period as a proxy.) As my Engineering Economics professor said, "A bad economic analysis is better than none at all."
-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/)
Texas Central Railways is still working out the details of how the project will be financed. As I understand it, they won't have good cost estimates until the environmental impact study has been completed and a route has been chosen. Given the tendency of projects of this magnitude to come in late and over cost, estimating the final cost is a dicey exercise.
Whenever someone says that a large project will cost a number, e.g. $10 billion, I discount it. Having been involved in developing the cost estimates for several power plant construction projects, we never gave a specific number. We came up with a range of numbers based on scenario probabilities.
Ignorniing my own admonition, if the project were built for the quoted $10 billion and, furthermore, if the construction work in progress were funded with short term construction loans, whilst the permanent financing was funded at the current U.S. Treasury long bond rate, and the long term financing was placed at the time the construction work in progress was closed to plant and equipment in service, the cost of the project would be approximately $15.5 billion. To this one would need to add the cost of the construction work in progress loans. Needless to say, this is a lot of ifs.
If the project sponsors get substantial financial support from the equipment manufacturer, as well as the Japanese export/import bank, the total cost could be less because of the lower debt service cost.
This project is as much about giving Japanese high speed railway equipment manufacturers a platform to export their technologies to the United States as it is about meeting the passenger transport needs of Texas. If the project is successful, it could open wide the U.S. market for Japanese high speed rail technology. That's OK as long as the Japanese continue to buy Boeing airplanes.
Time for some back of the envelope estimates.
Cost to build: $10B.
Payback period: 20 years. (Yes, I know payback period is the "wrong" way to do this - I told you it was "back of envelope")
Operating ratio (margin): 67% (33%).
Revenue needed per year: $1.5B
Revenue per passenger (250 miles at $1 per mile - typical of Acela) = $250
Daily pax to produce $1.5B in revenue: 165,000
Daily trains at 400 pax per train = 400, 200 in each direction.
Train freqency over a 20 hour day: one train every 6 minutes each way.
MARTA doesn't run this frequently - even at rush hour - in Atlanta.
I thnk there is money to be made in doing the engineering, building and sales of equipment. There may be good, solid reasons to build HSR between Dallas and Houston, but it's really doubtful they include "making money" unless you expand the project scope beyond just having fares cover capital expense and include land development (or some other thing) like AAF.
081552 Smart article that is well-balanced and detailed.
Smart article that is well-balanced and detailed.
Except for the Randall Otoole quote. He unbalanced nearly all the time. (if he can just chuck is opinion out there about HSR w/o supporting facts, I can do it about him, no?)
Sam1 Here is a column from the Dallas Morning News on the Texas Central Railway. It contains some interesting insights on the motives for the railway, as well as its objectives, risks, and challenges. http://www.dallasnews.com/business/columnists/mitchell-schnurman/20141101-mitchell-schnurman-texas-bullet-train-plan-banks-on-japan.ece
Here is a column from the Dallas Morning News on the Texas Central Railway. It contains some interesting insights on the motives for the railway, as well as its objectives, risks, and challenges.
http://www.dallasnews.com/business/columnists/mitchell-schnurman/20141101-mitchell-schnurman-texas-bullet-train-plan-banks-on-japan.ece
Here's the line that caught my eye: "Last month, officials from Japan and the U.S. were promoting an alternative system based on magnetic levitation. It’s much more expensive (and 100 mph faster), and an investor group is pushing a plan for the Northeast corridor. To help win support, the Japanese government offered to pay $5 billion of the $10 billion costs for a line between Washington and Baltimore."
Washington to Baltimore is 40 miles. Washington to Boston is 450 miles. Do the math. That would be $115B for a new NEC spine - done in maglev! I believe Amtrak's figure for a new HSR NEC spine was $170B?
Me thinks Amtrak is gold plating and not efficient. Japanese are low-balling to get in the game.
My own feeling is if they stick to their business goals.........no stops or one stop and stick with their route and goal speed of at least 200 mph. I think they will kick it out of the ballpark as far as being profitable.
I watched Chicago-Milwaukee grow from just 2-3 trains each way and a horrendous loss to where it is today.....just below break even. People will amend their travel plans and drive downtown Milwaukee to catch a train vs driving to the airport to fly........proven in Wisconsin. Even with the airport stop they will still drive to downtown Milwaukee (I know I do when I ride).
They are even now trying to fund three additional train frequencies between Milwaukee and Chicago that would be non-stop express trains and shave 11 more minutes off the schedule. Perhaps those additional frequencies push the corridor above break even..........perhaps not. We'll see.
I think Dallas to Houston will be a winner if they stick with all their original goals.
Houston business journal article. Note long time to complete study. One grammar problem is article says 68 trips Dallas - Houston. actually it is 68 trips between the 2 cities or 34 round trips.
http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/morning_call/2014/07/bullet-train-goal-68-trips-a-day-from-dallas-to.html?page=all
November 13, 1974
Dear Mr. MacDonald:
It has come to my attention that you and your fellow members of the AMTRAK Board of Directors will consider initiation of Dallas-Houston service at your meeting of November 20, 1974. I want to strongly urge that you support the establishment of this new route for many pragmatic and economic reasons.
The City of Dallas is currently in the process of renovating its Union Terminal facility—a multi-modal downtown station which services both Surtran (buses from Dallas-Fort Worth Regional Airport) and AMTRAK. Additionally, Hunt Properties is in the process of building a $210 million office, shopping and hotel complex which will adjoin Union Terminal.
This continued interest in establishing excellent inter-city rail-passenger terminal facilities and accommodations, combined with our metroplex population of 2.3 million, leaves no doubt in my mind that our citizens would warmly welcome and generously support the addition of a Dallas-to-Houston route to our current AMTRAK service. I hope you will weigh our advantages for your passenger transportation system and agree with me.
If I may be of assistance in answering any questions you may have concerning the metropolitan Dallas area, please do not hesitate to contact me.
With my regards,
Wes Wise
***************************************************************************************************
November 16, 1974
Dear Mayor Wise:
Thank you for your letter of November 13.
I think it is pretty well known by now that I believe that we should have a National Railroad Passenger Service that truly meets the needs of our Country, not just one that concentrates on the Northeast Corridor.
I feel that there are a number of gaps in the Amtrak Basic System as originally established, that left it inadequate to that purpose. As you may know, I had something to do with plugging two of the gaps – Washington-New York-Montreal via my native state of Vermont, and Boston-Chicago via Cleveland – prior to my appointment to the Amtrak board.
I have been studying material on the Texas routes sent to me by Congessman Alan Steelman and Dr. Dan Monaghan. I concur on the essentiality of service between Dallas and Houston. I also admire the people of Dallas for having put their money where their mouths are, in getting the Dallas Transportation Center organized. If you don’t mind my saying so, you’ve acted just like the Vermonters, who rolled up their sleeves and fixed up the seven closed stations in Vermont so that they are now open, alive, and filling the restored Montrealer with cash customers.
Monday night I expect to spend the evening aboard the Broadway Ltd. enroute to our November 20 Board meeting, with Charlie Luna, to get more background on the matter.
Unless there is something overriding to the contrary that I don’t know about at this writing, I intend to support the rerouting of the Chicago-Houston Lone Star to run via Dallas to Houston.
Sincerely,
Joseph V. MacDonald
P.S. Any time the Great State of Vermont can be of assistance to its sister Great State of Texas, we’re always happy to do so. We got an unreserved coach added to the all-reserved Montrealer, and while we were at it, we got one added to the Lone Star, too!
This is kind of off-topic, but as I’ve mentioned before, my father, Joe MacDonald, was a ‘consumer rep’ on the Amtrak board. Here’s a little news item from January 10, 1975.
Amtrak Chance Seen for Dallas
DALLAS (AP) - There is a "fair chance" Amtrak passenger train service from Chicago to Houston may be rerouted to include Dallas, an Amtrak board director said Wednesday. In a telephone interview with the Dallas Times Herald, Joseph V. MacDonald of Chicago said Amtrak's board has shown a "favorable reaction" to routing the train through Dallas. The train presently reaches Houston through Fort Worth and Temple. MacDonald said costs would be the primary reason for rerouting the train. "I feel the people of Dallas showed their interest in train service with the approval of the $6 million in bonds to buy and upgrade Union Terminal," he said. He said the board is likely to vote on the rerouting issue this month.
http://www.rrpicturearchives.net/showPicture.aspx?id=43352
Mike MacDonald
jclass Isn't it a case of, "Some things come before other things"? It's indicated that more information will become available once the EIS is completed. And I would think it would be an advantage to have people involved that are well-versed in navigating the political/regulatory thicket a project like this faces.
Isn't it a case of, "Some things come before other things"? It's indicated that more information will become available once the EIS is completed. And I would think it would be an advantage to have people involved that are well-versed in navigating the political/regulatory thicket a project like this faces.
Well, IMO I wouldn't even expend any effort with funding until the EIS is completed because that is going to tell you how much in remediation needs to be added to the project.........and that is $$$. Also, keep in mind way back when this project was announced, pretty sure it's completion date was 2020 or before if my memory is correct and holding up. I suspect they slid the date once already although I am basing that only on memory.
The reason they have the politically connected people is exactly due to what you see here in this discussion. Lots of well meaning people that want their ideas accepted as sound. They need to navigate around a good portion of that if they want to keep their costs low and their marketabilty high. I would also suspect a good portion of their investment money will come from overseas vs the United States.
I think the $10-12 Billion cost estimate might be a little on the high side given they will follow existing ROW most of the way, the route is flat AND the two major station projects (Dallas and Houston) might be real estate plays that pay for themselves.
Excerpts from 2002 Taipei Times article:
The George W. Bush administration is about to name Richard Lawless, a long-time intelligence officer and businessman with strong commercial ties to Taiwan, as the Pentagon's next leading Asia expert, Pentagon sources say….
Lawless is the chairman of USAsia Commercial Development Corp, a firm he founded in 1987 whose main current focus is Taiwan and South Korea.
Before starting the firm, Lawless spent 15 years in the CIA, where he rose to director of operations. He also served in State Department positions in Seoul, Tokyo, Vienna and Washington. In addition, he has long-term ties to President Bush's brother, Florida Governor Jeb Bush.
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2002/08/05/159059
Excerpts from 2007 Taipei Times article:
Top US defense policymaker for Asia Richard Lawless has quit at a critical time for the administration of President George W. Bush, which is under pressure to devise a strategy to counter China's military ambitions…
Lawless's departure "is an extraordinary loss," said Daniel Blumenthal, the Pentagon's senior director for China, Taiwan and Mongolia until November 2004.
"He does not see Asia through Sino-centric lenses like so many in the administration. He is committed to a Japan and allies-first policy in Asia, where others think that what is good for China is good for America," Bluementhal said.
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/world/archives/2007/04/06/2003355486
Excerpt from Dallas News column by Mitchell Schnurman:
Lawless and his team have been meeting quietly for three years with local and state officials. But many details have not been disclosed yet, including the price tag and investors. Estimates for the project have been $10 billion to $12 billion, depending on the final route…
Another environmental study has begun for a separate, related project. A rail spur between Fort Worth and Dallas, with a stop in Arlington, is being considered. While the Texas Central Railway has agreed to operate that leg with high-speed trains, it won’t pay for construction.
Some of that would fall to federal and local government, and local officials are leading the effort.
The pitch will go something like this: Let’s leverage the private investment with maybe a 20 percent match from the feds and build something even more special.
The trip from Fort Worth to Dallas would be 20 minutes, slashing commute times. Sports fans would have easy access to football and baseball in Arlington.
http://www.dallasnews.com/business/columnists/mitchell-schnurman/20140405-in-texas-even-high-speed-rail-may-work.ece
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