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Calculating the payback period for a project is a reasonable 50,000 foot technique to determine the likelihood of recovering the investment. However, unless the project developers plan to pay cash for the project, which is highly unlikely, the debt service cost, which is always calculated using TVM factors, increases the cost of the project.  The question of how much is a function of the funding plan.  What is unknown to outsiders are the financing variables that will impact the final cost of the project.  Unless one has access to the debt financing plan, he is not able to calculate a tight estimate of the project cost.  But he can say that it will be more than the stated cost of the project.  Whether the proposed Dallas/Houston High Speed Railway can be built for $10 billion is unknown.  One might want to keep in mind the original cost projections for the California High Speed Railway.  The initial project was approximately $32 billion.  It grew eventually to nearly $98 billion, before some sanity swept through California, an unusual condition, and the cost of the project was scaled back to $68 billion.  And that's before inclusion of the cost of financing.
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