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Amtrak cuts

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Posted by schlimm on Tuesday, March 4, 2014 12:47 PM

Your statements do not correspond to offical Amtrak reports.  Average daily ridership on each A-T train in Dec. 2013 was 386.   According to the PRIIA Section 210 Performance Improvement Plan (published September 2012), the A-T was equipped with Superliner (bi-level) equipment all of FY 2012.

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Posted by ACY Tom on Tuesday, March 4, 2014 1:27 PM
The average passenger counts on the A-T in 2012 or 2013 are history. They have absolutely no relevance to the realities of the actual maximum numbers in March, 2014. The train has to be capable of serving the maximum actual numbers. Some current mid-week counts are 325, 425, and 448. Those are MID-WEEK numbers! Last weekend we had 555 on the train!
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Posted by Overmod on Tuesday, March 4, 2014 1:30 PM

ACY
That was 2 years ago. Also, the average may be interesting, but we have to be prepared every day for the maximum.

This is interesting.  Does that mean that the commissary has to be prepared to stock the train ... in Lorton ... with up to 550 meals until they get the 'final' ticketing numbers?  Or just be sure to have the capability on hand to source that many meals? 

What is done with any meals that are prepared and not required?  Or with the food, or meals, that have been loaded but remain uneaten?  And how is that formally accounted for in the documentation we're considering?

Beginning to suspect there is some formal convention that is making the A-T commissary numbers read so high than those for comparable (Florida sleeper) LD trains...

(How much more difficult can it be to put a buffet section... even with electrical heating to the steam tables... in the upper section of a Superliner?  I don't see anything particularly showstopping about it, or about provisioning it... but then, I'm not experienced in Amtrak train service, so tell me what I should be 'designing in' to such a facility...)

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Posted by ACY Tom on Tuesday, March 4, 2014 1:48 PM
The actual numbers have recently approached 600 at times for a one-way trip, especially on weekends. The Commissary stocks enough food for the round trip Lorton - Sanford - Lorton, using the actual numbers of reservations, plus a an extra factor to allow for late additions to the passenger count. Since we don't know in advance what each passenger will order, an extra factor is added to be sure we have enough for everybody. I have no way of knowing how much food is kept on hand at the Washington DC (Ivy City) Commissary in order to be prepared for the demand. Meals that are prepared but wasted or rejected or otherwise not served, must be condemned and thrown away per F.D.A. regulations. They must be accounted for as "Condemned". The amount of work required to modify Superliner diners for buffet service would be daunting. Don't forget that installation of buffet-style food-dispensing facilities upstairs would necessarily reduce the number of usable diner seats in cars that already are over crowded.
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Posted by ACY Tom on Tuesday, March 4, 2014 1:53 PM
I should add that food that is loaded but not prepared can be kept aboard and added to the stock available for the next crew to prepare. This can mean a reduction in the amount that needs to be ordered. The important thing is to keep it stored properly. Other trains are generally stripped of supplies at each terminal, but the Auto Train is not. Frankly, that would involve unnecessarily moving an awful lot of supplies every day.
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Posted by schlimm on Tuesday, March 4, 2014 3:51 PM

Of no relevance?   Please!!  December 2013 is only two months earlier.  Soon we should have the January 2014 numbers for comparison.  And for planning and evaluation, the overall average for an entire year is relevant in any endeavor that serves customers.  The best stat is current month vs one year prior. 

You said the Superliners were not used before so the passenger counts would have been lower in 2012 than currently. Not so, according to Amtrak.

Average daily ridership for A-T:

Dec 2013 = 360 [I overstated in the earlier post]   Dec. 2012 = 360

Jan. 2013 =  351  Jan. 2012 = 293

Feb. 2013 = 317 Feb 2012 = 359  

Your numbers are surprisingly higher in the summer. Aug. 2013 = 417.

These are all Amtrak's numbers and they include the number of passengers they budget for.  If you are serving 550 at times,then you will far exceed the budgeted numbers, which have been very close to actual numbers. Is there some explanation?

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Posted by V.Payne on Tuesday, March 4, 2014 8:12 PM

I would tend to believe Acy in regard to the peak numbers, which are not the average found in reports.

"An answer to the ridiculously high commissary charge for the A-T ($13,969,000 vs only $1,450,000 for the Silver Star) should be found soon.  It becomes very hard to take Amtrak seriously with such an obvious boondoggle going on."

The answer may simply be that this is an artifact of an accounting system that allocates 80% of costs. In other words a host of overhead unrelated to production might be roled into these numbers atop the Aramark contract. There is Corporate Support in the Commissary numbers as far as I can tell per the link to a presentation by Tom Hall at Amtrak. Even still the cost recovery ratio has made an impressive improvement. Sometimes costs are allocated by revenue, instead of cost drivers.

I would still like to see a Industrial Engineering type analysis of future stocking efficiency (commissary cost) with a refrigerated cart system that I thought was coming with Viewliner-2.

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Posted by henry6 on Tuesday, March 4, 2014 8:36 PM

I see and hear a lot of people knowing how to cut and remove and save and whatever Amtrak.  Does anyone have a single plan from top to bottom, side to side, front to back how to organize, equip, man, finance, market, and operate Amtrak?.  Has to be total plan not just sentences of what should or shouldn't be done.

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Posted by oltmannd on Tuesday, March 4, 2014 8:49 PM

henry6

I see and hear a lot of people knowing how to cut and remove and save and whatever Amtrak.  Does anyone have a single plan from top to bottom, side to side, front to back how to organize, equip, man, finance, market, and operate Amtrak?.  Has to be total plan not just sentences of what should or shouldn't be done.

Got $10 or 20 million?  That's about what it would cost to do what you are asking.  You want a strategy?  Read my blog: Feb 2012...

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Posted by schlimm on Tuesday, March 4, 2014 8:53 PM

V.Payne

I would tend to believe Acy in regard to the peak numbers, which are not the average found in reports.

"An answer to the ridiculously high commissary charge for the A-T ($13,969,000 vs only $1,450,000 for the Silver Star) should be found soon.  It becomes very hard to take Amtrak seriously with such an obvious boondoggle going on."

The answer may simply be that this is an artifact of an accounting system that allocates 80% of costs. In other words a host of overhead unrelated to production might be roled into these numbers atop the Aramark contract.

I do not doubt ACY's experience.  But there must be either: 1. an extreme range in day-to-day loaded passenger numbers to arrive at the officially reported averages month after month.  or 2.  ACY's 550 passengers is an extreme outlier.   In either case, it would mean the A-T either has a large reserve pool of equipment to use on those 500+ days or else most of the time there are a lot of 1/3 empty passenger cars, as well as a lot of unused food which eventually is discarded.   Perhaps that explains some (not much) the high commissary cost.

As far as commissary cost being almost 10x that of the Silver Star, your speculation that it represent overhead makes little sense.   1. It is outsourced, so Amtrak cannot tack its overhead onto that.  2.  Even if it were so, why would the overhead tacked on be so much higher than the Silver Star or any other LD food service.  Until I see some official explanation, the hypothesis of corrupt practices (kickback on a sweetheart contract) looks quite possible

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Posted by ACY Tom on Tuesday, March 4, 2014 9:45 PM
I'm being misquoted again, just as I was on a different thread last fall, and by the same people. I did not say when Superliners were introduced on A-T. For the record, that happened in the 1990's. Sorry, I don't remember the day and year. I certainly did not say we had some other equipment in 2012. Figures for December, 2013 and January, 2014 ARE OF NO RELEVANCE because they reflect the capacity of a train with 4 coaches and 6 sleepers. The fifth coach was added about a month ago, and that is when the passenger count rose to the 550 range, sometimes approaching 600. 550 is NOT an outlier. THAT CAPACITY is what is relevant today. It is possible to get that many people on the train with the increased capacity that the 5th coach affords. The unanswered question involves the problem of serving all those people with the same three diners and one fewer lounge car. Why is anybody surprised that the A-T has high counts in both directions during the summer? That's when the kids are out of school and Mom & Dad take them to see Mickey Mouse. Unlike Schlimm, I do not see a crook under every rock. I'll admit it's possible that somebody is crooked. If it's true, I don't know about it. I suspect V. Payne may be on the right track with regard to the accounting, but that's out of my line so I don't know. Henry, I'm the first to admit I don't have the plan you're seeking.
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Posted by V.Payne on Tuesday, March 4, 2014 10:01 PM

"It is outsourced, so Amtrak cannot tack its overhead onto that..."  take a look at the presentation to which I am showing a link. There is a discussion regarding Corporate costs, such as developing the point of sale system. Who is to say that the Commissary Cost is not just a catchall bucket of Aramark costs, Corporate cost, IT costs, that is allocated by prorating to revenue?

Further, the amount of Commissary cost does not make sense at the route level. I bet something got miscoded but the erstwhile IG didn't apply some basic back checking of numbers to figure this out.

We are getting pretty deep into Amtrak's internal cost allocation. I did however see that there are about $61 million worth of purchases (assume food and contract services) system wide per the PDF but $91 million in total costs for "Commisary Provision & Management".

Here are the Corporate Support functions, I wonder what is the cost of such?

Business Planning and Contract Management
Business Analytics and Decision Support
Information Systems Support (WIMS/POS)
Regulatory Compliance – FDA, Amtrak Public Health, DOT, FMCSA, etc.
Facility and Asset Management

This all gets back to the only way to really drive efficiency is to change the subsidy for Amtrak to a per passenger mile subsidy off the corridor at least.

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Posted by schlimm on Wednesday, March 5, 2014 12:09 AM

ACY
Unlike Schlimm, I do not see a crook under every rock.

Hardly.  But if you think the contract with Aramark in the past for a food service that cost almost 10X the Silver Star commissary and served fewer passengers makes any sense, then you really need to take off your rose colored glasses and get real.  IG reports use the figures from Amtrak, examined by skilled, experienced auditors.  If you or V. Payne think they are in error, prove it.   

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Posted by daveklepper on Wednesday, March 5, 2014 2:46 AM

It makes some sense to me.   The Silver Florida trains share commisary and many other costs with many trains, particularly at the north end of their runs.   These are two trains out of at least 50 requiring food service at Sunnyside, and possibly 100.   The Auto Train's commisary and other costs are unique to it, since its endpoints must be located with very different criteria than all other passenger trains.

To reduce costs without dropping quality and one would have to work out a method where by the Washington, DC commissary, if there is one, could service Lorton.  I am unsure if this is possible.  Or possibly the Dulles Airport Sky Chefs operation.  And Orlando Airport Sky Chefs at the south end.

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Posted by ACY Tom on Wednesday, March 5, 2014 8:03 AM
The DC Commissary, located at the Ivy City service area, does service the Auto Train. Every morning, they receive an order from the crew of inbound no. 52. They fill the order by loading up a truck and driving about 20 miles (each way) to Lorton, where the truck is unloaded with supplies for the six sleepers, two lounges, and two kitchens. Sanford has a small Commissary to provide "top-off" service at the turn-around. As for the cracker-jack accountants who provided the info to the I.G. last fall, it is every bit as logical to suggest that they made mistakes and false assumptions, as it is to suggest that somebody at the Commissary is crooked. To tell you the truth, I don't know. Now I have to go to work.
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Posted by oltmannd on Wednesday, March 5, 2014 8:20 AM

ACY
Every morning, they receive an order from the crew of inbound no. 52

The inbound crew orders for next outbound train?  How do they know what the passenger count for the next outbound train is?   Certainly, this could be done better from current bookings plus history....

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Posted by oltmannd on Wednesday, March 5, 2014 8:29 AM

ACY
Since we don't know in advance what each passenger will order, an extra factor is added to be sure we have enough for everybody. I have no way of knowing how much food is kept on hand at the Washington DC (Ivy City) Commissary in order to be prepared for the demand.

This is not a particularly difficult problem to solve.  The train has a long history and that history (in data) plus some simple statistical analysis could be used to predict rather closely what's needed by day of week, week of year, etc, etc.

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Posted by ACY Tom on Wednesday, March 5, 2014 8:30 AM
The Chief gets info on the numbers of reservations for the next crew's round trip. The obs employees count their onhand stock and allow for items that might be close to expiration date (milk, etc.). They determine how much is needed to bring stock levels up to an appropriate level for the next crew. Other trains are entirely stripped upon arrival and a full order is supplied; but on the Auto Train, this would be impractical because it would involve moving too much stuff. Can't take any more time. Must hit the road now.
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Posted by schlimm on Wednesday, March 5, 2014 8:33 AM

oltmannd
This is not a particularly difficult problem to solve.  The train has a long history and that history (in data) plus some simple statistical analysis could be used to predict rather closely what's needed by day of week, week of year, etc, etc.

As I was saying in an earlier post, but he and his chief think the past history is irrelevant.   Sounds like totally over-matched management.   But even that doesn't explain the ridiculous commissary costs for the A-T.

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Posted by schlimm on Wednesday, March 5, 2014 8:54 AM

We are told the A-T has an outsourced food service on the FL end with Aramark.  Then we are told there is a commissary at Sanford serving only the A-T.     It uses the Ivy City commissary on the north end.  Is that shared with any other trains?    Why use commissaries which serve few or zero other trains (to distribute overhead) if the train uses an outsourced supply?   What a mess.   In any case, the fare is insufficient to cover the food service costs.   Underpricing.

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Posted by daveklepper on Wednesday, March 5, 2014 2:12 PM

A-C, Shlimm and I know that Autotrain loses a lot less money per passenger than most if not all the long distance services.   So it is logical to suspect that some other costs are being passed on to Autotrain to make make some real disaster elsewhere look better.

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Posted by schlimm on Wednesday, March 5, 2014 4:20 PM

daveklepper

A-C, Shlimm and I know that Autotrain loses a lot less money per passenger than most if not all the long distance services.   So it is logical to suspect that some other costs are being passed on to Autotrain to make make some real disaster elsewhere look better.

Better than any other LD train, losing only $0.14 ppm in FY 2013.   However, the shorter corridors lost only $0.089 ppm.  The NEC overall had a positive contribution of $0.20 ppm mile to help subsidize the rest of Amtrak.  Acela by itself contributed $0.375 ppm, yet folks like henry imply it is overpriced.   In fact, if Amtrak actually was forced to break even on all operations, the Acela fares would be cut and LD fares would be raised a large percentage. 

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Posted by PNWRMNM on Thursday, March 6, 2014 7:22 AM

Schlimm

The NEC contribution should not subsidize the rest of ATK. It should offset some of the corporate overhead costs. Anything left over after that should go to capital costs of the NEC where ATK has to support the whole railroad in marked contrast to the LD trains which are being subsidized by the freight carriers through  "marginal cost" payment for train slots.

Who knows what ATK's books show? Not me. But if I were the boss and I want Congress to see the cost of LD trains, I would set my books up by product line, probably NEC, corridors, and LD.

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Posted by schlimm on Thursday, March 6, 2014 7:50 AM

PNWRMNM
NEC where ATK has to support the whole railroad in marked contrast to the LD trains which are being subsidized by the freight carriers through  "marginal cost" payment for train slots.

Yet another subsidy LD routes receive.   I would like to see an equal level of subsidization on all product lines.  I also think capital costs of new corridors and the NEC should not count against Amtrak, but be born by a separate corporation that owns the track, as in the UK.  

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Posted by daveklepper on Thursday, March 6, 2014 8:48 AM

1..   If capitol costs were included, I believe the NEC would show just about as taxpayer subsidized as LD.  If you add the state subsidies for commuter service, possibly a lot more so!   The least subsidized by taxpayers are the other short distance corridors, and one or two (VA, NC) actually break even or make money if one does not count the hidden subsidy by the freight railroads.

2.   I have zero problem with freight railroads subsidizing passenger service as long as the subsidy is a tiny part  of operating expenses.  The subsidy was part of the agreement for them to exit the passenger business, and the passenger business bought them eminent domain and other needed advantages that put them in business in the firstplace.

3.    On a per-taxpayer basis, of course, things look differently.   "I use Amtrak LD once a year for vacation travel.  The Amtrak taxpayer subsidy to me is probably 1/20th the  subsidy a Phily-NY commuter 2 times a week gets, Acela or regional."   Or "I pay taxes, I want my train, even if I never use it."

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Posted by PNWRMNM on Thursday, March 6, 2014 1:13 PM

schlimm

I also think capital costs of new corridors and the NEC should not count against Amtrak, but be born by a separate corporation that owns the track, as in the UK.  

Schlimm,

I have never understood the logic of those who think this is a good idea.

As I understand it the NEC has two problems.

One is that ATK is forced by law to charge the commuter train operating entities on the basis of marginal costs which are far less than average costs on say a per train mile basis. The practical effect is that ATK is subsidizing the commuters, or more baldly Federal Taxpayers are subsidizing New Jersey taxpayers, who are subsidizing NJ residents who choose to ride NJT to NYC.

The second is that the NEC needs big bucks to increase capacity, particularly at the Baltimore Tunnels and between NJ and NYC. For the sake of simplicity I will assume that the NEC is in a state of good repair, which many well not be true.

The undercharging of commuters is a matter of Federal Law. As such Federal Law could/should be changed to eliminate the undercharging. Do not need a new owner to do that, but I do see how a new owner might be a flag of convenience under which to make the case for charging the commuters fairly.

Creating a new entity to own and maintain the fixed plant in and of itself does nothing to address the investment needs. If the new entity is to be for profit, they need to raise everyone's charges to generate the cash flow to support the multi billions in debt they will incurr to fix just the two items I mentioned. If the new entity is just another Federal bureaucracy all we have done is provided fertile ground for fights between the "owner" and the "operators" and shifted the Federal capital spending from ATK to the NEW ENTITY. I really do not see the point. The expenditures will or will not be made. What difference does it matter if they are made thru ATK or the NEW ENTITY?

Anyone who favors this approach should study hard the series of wrecks in Britian that followed shortly after their implementation of this policy. Railroads are vertically integrated as between operations, maintenance, and capital investments because that is the most effective and efficient way to organize the business, even a loss making business like the NEC.

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Posted by schlimm on Thursday, March 6, 2014 1:50 PM

PNWRMNM
Anyone who favors this approach should study hard the series of wrecks in Britian that followed shortly after their implementation of this policy. Railroads are vertically integrated as between operations, maintenance, and capital investments because that is the most effective and efficient way to organize the business, even a loss making business like the NEC.

I may have this wrong, but the problems in the UK occurred when they privatized all rail, including track with a separate company.  That error was corrected by semi-nationalizing all RoW so that it was properly maintained to higher standards.  Since then, there have been much fewer track-related accidents.

It is a "not-for-dividend" company.

 http://www.networkrail.co.uk/about-us/

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Thursday, March 6, 2014 5:24 PM

PNWRMNM

As I understand it the NEC has two problems.

One is that ATK is forced by law to charge the commuter train operating entities on the basis of marginal costs which are far less than average costs on say a per train mile basis. The practical effect is that ATK is subsidizing the commuters, or more baldly Federal Taxpayers are subsidizing New Jersey taxpayers, who are subsidizing NJ residents who choose to ride NJT to NYC.

The second is that the NEC needs big bucks to increase capacity, particularly at the Baltimore Tunnels and between NJ and NYC. For the sake of simplicity I will assume that the NEC is in a state of good repair, which many well not be true.

The undercharging of commuters is a matter of Federal Law. As such Federal Law could/should be changed to eliminate the undercharging.

1.   Doesn't the latest law change require that an  " EQUITABLE " charge system for railroads using the NEC are to be negotiated by the end of this FY ?  Three charges might be all that is necessary for any line segment.?  Examining the Frailey article in April's Trains shows commuters are much more frequent than Amtrak on most of the NEC.

     a.  A per train charge 

     b.  A per axel count with motor ( Loco ) added in at a higher rate ?

     c.  Electric metering of CAT power consumption.  Will cause regenerative braking equipment to be much more desirable.  That will reduce total electric consumption needed.

2.  Yes the need for infrastructure improvements is very evident. 

     a.  The north end ---  Hudson river tunnels, Penn station expansion, Portal and Dock bridges is the pressing need in NJ.

     b.  Easing of curves Trenton  -  PHL  in Pennsylvania.

     c.  4 tracking from Marcus Hook - WASH.  Didn't Fred point out that commuter trains BAL - WASH had dropped to 2 RTs a day during PC days ?  

     d.  B & P tunnels ( 4 track ) at Baltimore

     e.  3 draw bridges in Maryland need replacing with 4 tracks and raised so the draw bridges no longer need opening

     f.  Expanding platforms for longer trains will keep number of new trains at a minimum  until other improvements are completed.

     g.  Make full NYP  --  WASH route 160 MPH capable thereby improving fluidity and reducing travel time to what ?  2:00 NYP - WASH.?  

3.  The CAT replacement needs to go forward now before any more trains are needed to operate on the NEC

      a.  The shut down of 2 tracks at a time between CP to  do this work is imperative.  Look at the problems MNRR is having  trying to finish New Rochelle -- New Haven.

     b.  Ever location that are CP crossovers will take special work windows for the CAT changing tracks.  Possibly weekends and / or night times with only one track open  ( 1 or 4 ? )

     c.  Upgrading CAT in 2 track territory will be even more difficult ?

4.  State of good repair.  No maybe fair but whole NYP --  WASH needs undercutting.

.

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Posted by PNWRMNM on Thursday, March 6, 2014 6:46 PM

Schlimm,

FWIW, I could not get the network rail link to work despite three time separated tries.

The real issue is how splitting an operation that is vertically integrated for good reasons makes sense. The split itself will increase costs of coordination. Why do that?

Mac

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Posted by schlimm on Thursday, March 6, 2014 9:19 PM

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