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The future of passenger travel

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Posted by oltmannd on Wednesday, December 4, 2013 6:13 AM

V.Payne

I agree, we just recently finished the legal battles and recalls over the supposed electronic throttle problems in cars. That was a fairly simple flash based lookup table technology. Can you imagine the " theories " advanced by the deceased lawyers for a system of inertial equations and pattern recognition.  You just have to get a jury to go along.

If accident risk was dropped, you would still have the possibility of animals, other drivers, insurance scammers, and mechanical failures. If you built a new series of lanes, who would pay for them? All told if you wanted to cover the costs for either option, insurance or upgraded infrastructure, it would maybe be $0.20 a mile or so extra atop $0.25 variable or $0.56 full driving cost.

All good points, but we have most of this risk now (animals, mechanical failure, weather, etc.) plus driver error and inattentiveness.   I figure existing lanes will get converted to "smart" highway/vehicle systems because of capacity demand and the lack of funds to add any lanes.

We are already seeing some of the building blocks in cars such as adaptive cruise control, lane change warning, reactive braking, tire pressure monitoring, et. al.  We are seeing some smart highway  tech, too, such as variable tolling based on conditions and traffic/speed monitoring.  

I think intelligent highways/vehicle systems can grow organically and are a way to wring more capacity out of existing infrastructure.  I don't think this will effect the future of rail passenger travel one bit.  After all, is the passenger train in any worse position now than it was in 1971 when automobiles were considerably cruder and took twice as much fuel to go a mile and before airfare dropped to Greyhound fare levels?

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

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Posted by V.Payne on Tuesday, December 3, 2013 8:27 PM

I agree, we just recently finished the legal battles and recalls over the supposed electronic throttle problems in cars. That was a fairly simple flash based lookup table technology. Can you imagine the " theories " advanced by the deceased lawyers for a system of inertial equations and pattern recognition.  You just have to get a jury to go along.

If accident risk was dropped, you would still have the possibility of animals, other drivers, insurance scammers, and mechanical failures. If you built a new series of lanes, who would pay for them? All told if you wanted to cover the costs for either option, insurance or upgraded infrastructure, it would maybe be $0.20 a mile or so extra atop $0.25 variable or $0.56 full driving cost.

The hyperloop makes no sense...

http://pedestrianobservations.wordpress.com/2013/08/13/loopy-ideas-are-fine-if-youre-an-entrepreneur/

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Posted by BaltACD on Tuesday, December 3, 2013 7:18 PM

Self driving cars are devices built by man (and man's machines) - man is falible and as much as we hate to admit it - there will be crashes with self driving cars - The big question is who and how the vehicles will be insured and how the responsiblity for whatever crashes happen will be adjudicated through the courts.  Who will be the deep pockets for failure?

In theory, theory  equals reality, in reality theory rarely equals reality. 

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

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Posted by oltmannd on Tuesday, December 3, 2013 2:37 PM

The self-driving car is the one that's really interesting.  I can see a future when you'll have to make a reservation for a slot on an interstate to make an intercity trip and you'll have to have a self-driving car so that capacity and safety can be maintained.  The highway will be intelligent, too.  It'll be able to slot you in a few feet from the car ahead.  You'll be moving in a "pack" - like a train w/o couplers.  This is technology they've messed with out in SouCal.

Hyper loop?  I suspect the details will kill this for quite a while.  There have been proposals for linear induction motor "space cannons" for decades and decades and we don't have one of those yet, either.  

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

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Posted by carnej1 on Tuesday, December 3, 2013 11:48 AM

IMHO, the self driving car technology will become commonplace but incrementally. over a long period of time because of the fact that it will have to use the same ROW as conventional vehicles.

 The major problem with hyperloop i the enormous capital required to get even a short system up and running. Similar systems have been promoted over the last half century but they never seem to get off the drawing board for lack of funding..

"I Often Dream of Trains"-From the Album of the Same Name by Robyn Hitchcock

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The future of passenger travel
Posted by A McIntosh on Tuesday, December 3, 2013 9:19 AM

 Two items caught my eye recently that got me to thinking about how we will travel 20or so years from now.

One of them is the self driving car that Google is helping to develop. The potential to reduce traffic deaths

is quite apparent. It could also ease roadway congestion if deployed properly by convoying rush hour traffic.

the other potential development is the  hyperloop  idea that Elon Musk has promoted. At the speeds that

it would travel, it could replace domestic air travel the way air travel replaced long distance train travel.

So, am I totally off base, or is there some validity to this? Remember, people scoffed at air travel back

when.

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