Driving boom slows?

[schlimm]

http://usa.streetsblog.org/2015/01/07/the-feds-quietly-acknowledge-the-driving-boom-is-over/

[blue streak 1]

Graph is interesting.  Note 2006 was the highest year with it essentially flat awterwards.  Projection for miles to stay flat to the noted increase will be suspect.  Will lower gasoline prices have any effect?

[Dragoman]

And does this portend a shift to greater use of other transportation modes (potentially good for Amtrak and other passenger transport), or a trend to less travel in general (due to increased video conferencing for business, vacationing closer to home for pleasure, etc.)?

[schlimm]

Dragoman

And does this portend a shift to greater use of other transportation modes (potentially good for Amtrak and other passenger transport), or a trend to less travel in general (due to increased video conferencing for business, vacationing closer to home for pleasure, etc.)?

 

Maybe all of the above and more vacations with flights?

[zugmann]

Fuel expenses, cars that are boring anymore (and obscenely expensive), congestion, traffic lights, speed/red light cameras, every other moron screwing with their phone instead of paying attention to the road, road rage all the time, etc. No wonder nobody wants to drive. There's no fun in it - just hassle.   Esp. up here in the northeast with outdated, overcrowded highways.  Wish I could take mass transit to work.

 

But I think Schlimm is on to it.  I beleive it's a combination. 

[dakotafred]

Streetsblog sounds like it has a point of view; and, if that point of view includes a windfall for public transportation, it might be disappointed.

Sure, driving will fall off if we continue to let our streets, highways and bridges languish. But assuming the public sector that let these fail will step up to provide a quality substitute is optimistic.

There's always the possibility of letting the people muddle through as best they can with their deteriorating choices, which we are already living with in other public sectors.

Sticking to just transportation, I think one mode that is in for a big adjustment in, oh, the next five years is the airlines. Eventually, businesses are going to realize they're paying for a lot of travel for the transaction of stuff that could be done by fax, never mind the iPad or smart phone.

Sell your airline stock at the top of the market -- now! 

 

[blue streak 1]

Although could not find details the collaspe of an overpass onto southbound I-75 might cause a few drivers from driving.  Seems like a major highway bridge falls down about once a year.

The bridge problems in this country are not going to get better.  That is especialy true for RR bridges that are 2 - 3 times older.

 

[schlimm]

dakotafred

I think one mode that is in for a big adjustment in, oh, the next five years is the airlines. Eventually, businesses are going to realize they're paying for a lot of travel for the transaction of stuff that could be done by fax, never mind the iPad or smart phone.

 

Sounds plausible, but we've been hearing that for at least 40 years, albeit with somewhat clumsier devices than now.

[blue streak 1]

Found information about collaspe.  Happened in Cincinnati on I-75 south bound.  A bridge was slated for removal as it was deficient (?).  Preliiminary work was being done for the removal   For thru traffic at least there is a detour around on I-275.  Traffic to downtown can use I-275 / I-71.

Note this link has several videos after the initial one.

 

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/01/19/southbound-i-75-closed-after-major-bridge-collapse/22031819/

 

 

[A McIntosh]

Since many people get jaded by the latest in cool technical gadgets, would the availability of self driving (automonous) cars make "driving" more enjoyable with all the related gee whiz stuff that goes along with it?

[dakotafred]

Speaking of crumbling highways and streets: I wonder if self-driving cars will "do" potholes, or if avoiding those will still be up to the driver?

[Anonymous]

The combined rate of growth in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) between 2012 and 2042 is expected to slow but not stop.   

The forecasts and data tables are contained in Forecasts of Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT): May 2014.  The study was performed by IHS, an international forecasting firm, for the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA).   

Light duty-vehicles (cars, SUVs, pick-ups, etc.) account for approximately 90 per cent of VMT.  In 2012 they racked up 2.66 trillion miles.  Using them to gage the change in VMT over the study period is a good proxy for the total VMT.  Moreover, these are the vehicles used my most people who might choose an alternative mode of transport. The report does not address transport alternatives.  

The researchers used a variety of variables, i.e. GDP, population, income, etc. to predict VMT through 2042.  They acknowledged the flaws in long term statistical forecasts.  The volatility that is embedded in them is significant. Accordingly, they developed three scenarios, i.e. pessimistic, baseline, and optimistic.   

The combined rate of estimated growth under the pessimistic scenario is .65%, which would result in 3.23 trillion VMT in 2042 as compared to 2.66 trillion VMT in 2012.  The rate for the baseline scenario is .67%, which would result in 3.25 trillion VMT in 2042, whilst the optimistic is .71%, which would generate 3.29 trillion VMT in 2042.  

The researchers acknowledge that changes in their projections for trends in population, GDP, disposable income, housing patterns, and technological breakthroughs, as well the decline in vehicle ownership and use, especially amongst the young could have a significant impact on their projections.   

The report does not discuss the causes for the decline of VMT.  These factors could be major contributors.  

• Many young people cannot afford a car because they are having difficulty finding a good job. 
• The over 65 population, most of whom are retired, has grown from 31.1 million in 1990 to 35 million in 2000, to 40.3 million in 2010, as per Table 7, U.S. Statistical Abstract.  Retired people don’t commute to work and, therefore, they amount of driving that they do is usually reduced.
• More people are living closer to work.  Their commute is not as long as it has been. In Dallas, for example, in the 70s and 80s fewer than 500 people lived downtown.  Today, according to the Dallas Morning News, nearly 8,000 people live downtown, and this number is expected to increase to 25,000 in the next 10 to 15 years.

[schlimm]

Actual driving has essentially flat-lined since 2006, according to the graph.

[carnej1]

It will be interesting to see what the steep drop in gasoline prices will do to this trend. Of course, the energy market is volatile so how long it lasts is anyone's guess...

 

[MidlandMike]

Telecommuting is also saving miles.  Some workers do it occasionally, while others are contract workers, working out of their home, or coffee shops.

[zugmann]

A McIntosh

Since many people get jaded by the latest in cool technical gadgets, would the availability of self driving (automonous) cars make "driving" more enjoyable with all the related gee whiz stuff that goes along with it?

 

With all the people messing with their phones, half the cars on the road could already be condsidered driverless. 

Anyhow, here's The Oatmeal's view on the subject:

 

http://theoatmeal.com/blog/google_self_driving_car

[Anonymous]

The decline in VMT between 2006 and 2012, as per Table 1-36, National Transportation Statistics, was 1.5 per cent. 

VMT data is drawn from 50 state DOT’s.  There is considerable room for error when summing it for national results.  Moreover, the data is drawn from statistical sampling, which means the results have to be projected to the population as a range as opposed to a whole number.  

The actual decline in VMT probably ranged from slightly less than 1.5 per cent to slightly than 1.5 per cent. Without access to the sampling model, it is impossible to know.  In any case, the change in total VMT was minimal. 

A deeper analysis reveals a mixed picture in the 2006 – 2012 data.  As shown in the study referenced in a previous post, the decline in VMT that began in 2006 is not likely to be permanent.   

Urban VMT increased from 1,977 billion in 2006 to 1,992 billion in 2012 or .76 per cent.  Over the same period urban interstate VMT increased from 477.3 billion to 484.6 billion or 1.5 per cent.  Other urban arterial VMT declined from 1.060 billion to 1,052 billion or .75 per cent, whilst urban collector VMT increased from 173.2 billion to 179.5 billion or 3.6 per cent.  Urban local VMT increased from 266.5 billion to 275.9 billion or 3.6 per cent.

Rural VMT declined from 1,037 billion in 2006 to 976.2 billion in 2012 or 5.8 per cent.  Over the same period rural interstate VMT decreased from 257.9 billion to 245.9 billion or 5.1 per cent.  Other rural arterial VMT declined from 394.5 billion to 372 billion or 6.9 per cent, whilst rural collector VMT decreased from 251.4 billion to 228.8 billion or 6.2 per cent.  Rural local VMT declined from 131.7 billion to 130 billion or 2.4 per cent.

Between 2005 and 2012, as per Table 3.12, National Transportation Statistics, the average price for a gallon of gasoline in the United States increased from $2.34 to $3.70 in nominal dollars or 58 per cent.  It increased from $2.48 to $3.34 in 2007 constant dollars or 34.4 per cent.  Constant dollars dampen the impact of inflation.  Over the same period the CPI for all goods and services increased 17.6 per cent whilst the cost of all motor fuels increased 59.8 per cent.

The run-up in the real cost of gasoline and other motor fuels, combined with the downside consequences of the Great Recession, probably were factors in the decline of VMT between 2006 and 2012.  The decline in rural VMT, which was the major contributor to the overall decline in VMT, could be a function of higher fuel costs.  People in rural areas tend to drive further than urban dwellers, although it is not clear how many trips they take compared to urban drivers.