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The combined rate of growth in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) between 2012 and 2042 is expected to slow but not stop.    The forecasts and data tables are contained in Forecasts of Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT): May 2014.  The study was performed by IHS, an international forecasting firm, for the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA).    Light duty-vehicles (cars, SUVs, pick-ups, etc.) account for approximately 90 per cent of VMT.  In 2012 they racked up 2.66 trillion miles.  Using them to gage the change in VMT over the study period is a good proxy for the total VMT.  Moreover, these are the vehicles used my most people who might choose an alternative mode of transport. The report does not address transport alternatives.   The researchers used a variety of variables, i.e. GDP, population, income, etc. to predict VMT through 2042.  They acknowledged the flaws in long term statistical forecasts.  The volatility that is embedded in them is significant. Accordingly, they developed three scenarios, i.e. pessimistic, baseline, and optimistic.    The combined rate of estimated growth under the pessimistic scenario is .65%, which would result in 3.23 trillion VMT in 2042 as compared to 2.66 trillion VMT in 2012.  The rate for the baseline scenario is .67%, which would result in 3.25 trillion VMT in 2042, whilst the optimistic is .71%, which would generate 3.29 trillion VMT in 2042.   The researchers acknowledge that changes in their projections for trends in population, GDP, disposable income, housing patterns, and technological breakthroughs, as well the decline in vehicle ownership and use, especially amongst the young could have a significant impact on their projections.    The report does not discuss the causes for the decline of VMT.  These factors could be major contributors.   <ul> <li> <div class="Default" style="margin:1em 0px;text-align:justify;">Many young people cannot afford a car because they are having difficulty finding a good job.  </div> </li> <li> <div class="Default" style="margin:1em 0px;text-align:justify;">The over 65 population, most of whom are retired, has grown from 31.1 million in 1990 to 35 million in 2000, to 40.3 million in 2010, as per Table 7, U.S. Statistical Abstract.  Retired people don’t commute to work and, therefore, they amount of driving that they do is usually reduced. </div> </li> <li> <div class="Default" style="margin:1em 0px;text-align:justify;">More people are living closer to work.  Their commute is not as long as it has been. In Dallas, for example, in the 70s and 80s fewer than 500 people lived downtown.  Today, according to the Dallas Morning News, nearly 8,000 people live downtown, and this number is expected to increase to 25,000 in the next 10 to 15 years. </div> </li> </ul>
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