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<p><span style="font-family:Calibri;">The decline in VMT between 2006 and 2012, as per Table 1-36, National Transportation Statistics, was 1.5 per cent. </span></p> <div style="margin:0in 0in 8pt;"><span style="font-family:Calibri;">VMT data is drawn from 50 state DOT’s.  There is considerable room for error when summing it for national results.  Moreover, the data is drawn from statistical sampling, which means the results have to be projected to the population as a range as opposed to a whole number.   </span></div> <div style="margin:0in 0in 8pt;"><span style="font-family:Calibri;">The actual decline in VMT probably ranged from slightly less than 1.5 per cent to slightly than 1.5 per cent. Without access to the sampling model, it is impossible to know.  In any case, the change in total VMT was minimal.  </span></div> <div style="margin:0in 0in 8pt;"><span style="font-family:Calibri;">A deeper analysis reveals a mixed picture in the 2006 – 2012 data.  As shown in the study referenced in a previous post, the decline in VMT that began in 2006 is not likely to be permanent.   </span></div> <div style="margin:0in 0in 8pt;"><span style="font-family:Calibri;">Urban VMT increased from 1,977 billion in 2006 to 1,992 billion in 2012 or .76 per cent.  Over the same period urban interstate VMT increased from 477.3 billion to 484.6 billion or 1.5 per cent.  Other urban arterial VMT declined from 1.060 billion to 1,052 billion or .75 per cent, whilst urban collector VMT increased from 173.2 billion to 179.5 billion or 3.6 per cent.  Urban local VMT increased from 266.5 billion to 275.9 billion or 3.6 per cent.</span></div> <div style="margin:0in 0in 8pt;"><span style="font-family:Calibri;">Rural VMT declined from 1,037 billion in 2006 to 976.2 billion in 2012 or 5.8 per cent.  Over the same period rural interstate VMT decreased from 257.9 billion to 245.9 billion or 5.1 per cent.  Other rural arterial VMT declined from 394.5 billion to 372 billion or 6.9 per cent, whilst rural collector VMT decreased from 251.4 billion to 228.8 billion or 6.2 per cent.  Rural local VMT declined from 131.7 billion to 130 billion or 2.4 per cent. </span></div> <div style="margin:0in 0in 8pt;"><span style="font-family:Calibri;">Between 2005 and 2012, as per Table 3.12, National Transportation Statistics, the average price for a gallon of gasoline in the United States increased from $2.34 to $3.70 in nominal dollars or 58 per cent.  It increased from $2.48 to $3.34 in 2007 constant dollars or 34.4 per cent.  Constant dollars dampen the impact of inflation.  Over the same period the CPI for all goods and services increased 17.6 per cent whilst the cost of all motor fuels increased 59.8 per cent. </span></div> <div style="margin:0in 0in 8pt;"><span style="font-family:Calibri;">The run-up in the real cost of gasoline and other motor fuels, combined with the downside consequences of the Great Recession, probably were factors in the decline of VMT between 2006 and 2012.  The decline in rural VMT, which was the major contributor to the overall decline in VMT, could be a function of higher fuel costs.  People in rural areas tend to drive further than urban dwellers, although it is not clear how many trips they take compared to urban drivers.     </span> </div>
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