MP173 wrote:Michael:You appear to be narrowing a statement down to one issue (comparison of income statement to balance sheet)...the number of shares.Personally, I look to the income statement for the number of shares, not the balance sheet.ed
Well, a passing remark certainly became an issue to some. My reference point was to shares issued, because, between shares outstanding and treasury shares purchased with cold hard company cash, trends with significant financial implications can be read more clearly whereas the shares outstanding on the Income Statement tells a more limited story. Depends on what you are looking for. The Balance Sheet, of course, tells the whole story, including shares outstanding (issued - treasury) and to me, presents the complete picture.
However, what is significant about stock buybacks at BNSF which is somewhat different than a typical stock buyback is that over the past decade, BNSF has had generally negative cash flow. Typically, corporations with free cash flow will use it buy stock back, not corporations like BNSF.
"BNSF’s ratio of total debt to total capital was 47.8 percent at the end of 2000, 41.6 percent at the end of 1999, and 41.2 percent at the end of 1998. The increase in 2000 over the prior year is attributable to the increase in debt and lower equity due primarily to higher share repurchases." P. 25, Year 2000 Annual Report.
Stock buybacks at BNSF are typically achieved with borrowed money, and that has four implications.
1) the company incurs future interest expense, further eroding cash flow. BNSF spent roughly $1.5 billion on its stock buyback that year. The company is still paying interest on that buyback at between 7 and 8%.
2) the price of the remaining outstanding stock "may" rise as a result, but then the dividend declines as a percentage of return, making the stock look less, not more, valuable. A 4% dividend might go to 3%, even though the dividend amount remains the same. Is that attractive to institutional investors? Doubt it. I think that creates a downward pressure on the price as institutional investors cash out looking for the better return.
3) the stockholder's overall equity declines as a result of the increase in treasury shares at the same time that, in the specific case of BNSF, interest charges increase. A double whammy.
4) significant number of shares are placed on the market seeking compensation, rather than measuring the market price for investment purposes. This dilutes the power of the market to effectively appraise the true market value of BNSF stock. The fact that a large buyer is also in the market, regardless of share price, further erodes the essential function of the market pricing mechanism.
Yet, with significant quantities of management shares diluting the market on a continuing basis what would they do?
Well, that is the conundrum of putting the people who manage the company into a position of a vested interest in the stock price as a compensation tool, rather than as an investment strategy and to me, that represents the weakness of a stock repurchase program based on executive compensation, rather than as a logical use of free cash flow.
MP173 wrote:Michael:Of course BNSF's treasury stock is listed as a liability. As is every other company's stock. Take a look at any balance sheet and show me where treasury stock or any kind of equity is listed. Always as "Liabilities and stockholders equity."
The part that Strawbridge misunderstood was in his contention that a buyback was entirely positive. In the case of BNSF, it isnt. That shows, first of all, in how Treasury shares are treated under GAAP. That shows, second of all, his misunderstanding of what is actually occuring during a buyback. Thirdly, he thought a balance sheet showed the same thing as an income statement.
greyhounds wrote: beaulieu wrote:I think what Michael is saying is that the difference is because of unexercised options. One statement is covering actual outstanding shares, while the other covers outstanding shares plus shares held by the company treasury to cover issued options, that have not yet been exercised. So he's counting unexercised options as "shares"? If he does that he'll get the answer he wants. And the answer he usually wants is the one that makes the BNSF look bad. <>When they buy the stock back it doesn't cease to exist - it becomes treasury stock. But it's not outstanding. They've taken 85,000,000 shares into treasury. That's about $5.6 billion at today's value. <>
beaulieu wrote:I think what Michael is saying is that the difference is because of unexercised options. One statement is covering actual outstanding shares, while the other covers outstanding shares plus shares held by the company treasury to cover issued options, that have not yet been exercised.
So he's counting unexercised options as "shares"? If he does that he'll get the answer he wants. And the answer he usually wants is the one that makes the BNSF look bad.
When they buy the stock back it doesn't cease to exist - it becomes treasury stock. But it's not outstanding. They've taken 85,000,000 shares into treasury. That's about $5.6 billion at today's value.
greyhounds wrote: <>And year to year fluctuations in the shares outstanding don't mean a thing.. In 10 years BNSF reduced the number of shares outstanding from 468 milion to 381 million. You can falsely present that anyway you want, but they reduced the number of shares outstanding by 85,000,000 while investing heavily in expanding their capacity. What a great railroad! <>
bobwilcox wrote: Michael - Why would not the shares outstanding be the same on the P&L and on the balance sheet?
Michael - Why would not the shares outstanding be the same on the P&L and on the balance sheet?
greyhounds wrote: So is it your contention that the number of shares outstanding is different on the Income Statement than it is on the Balance Sheet.? They can't be. You're just blowing Montana Smoke again.
So is it your contention that the number of shares outstanding is different on the Income Statement than it is on the Balance Sheet.? They can't be. You're just blowing Montana Smoke again.
"That can't be."
Remember those words.
This confirms my long-standing position on your comments. You didn't look, and you don't know. You just talk.
Go to the Income Statement. Then go to the Balance sheet.
One reports shares outstanding. One reports shares issued. They are different. It can be, and almost always is. You didn't know that?
For instance:
From the Balance Sheets.
Pre-merger BN, 1996:
Stockholders’ equity:
Common stock, $.01 par value, 300,000,000 shares authorized;
154,198,088 shares issued
Treasury stock, at cost, 196,122,000 shares
In 1997, BNSF Annual Report
Stockholder's equity:
Common stock, $.01 par value, 600,000,000 shares authorized;
470,240,000 shares issued [merger shares]
Treasury stock, at cost, 6,961,000 shares.
Looking at the BNSF 2005 Annual Report,
Common stock, $0.01 par value 600,000,000 shares authorized;
527,289,000 shares issued
Treasury stock, at cost, 155,718,000 shares
There are reasons for looking at shares outstanding [dividend distribution, which is why it is on the Income Statement], and there are reasons for looking at shares issued [shareholder equity allocation, which is why it is on the Balance Sheet].
This is why the Income Statement reports one, and the Balance Sheet reports the other. Interestingly, Greyhounds confesses he never knew this difference existed, argues it can't exist... just "Montana Smoke," even though the reporting follows GAAP reporting principles.
Beaulieu is correct.
MichaelSol wrote: These numbers are Income Statement numbers, I am using Balance Sheet numbers.
These numbers are Income Statement numbers, I am using Balance Sheet numbers.
And year to year fluctuations in the shares outstanding don't mean a thing.. In 10 years BNSF reduced the number of shares outstanding from 468 milion to 381 million. You can falsely present that anyway you want, but they reduced the number of shares outstanding by 85,000,000 while investing heavily in expanding their capacity. What a great railroad!
MP173 wrote:Michael:Got a minor disagreement with you on your comment about same number of shares for BNSF as 10 years. Morningstar shows the number of shares as follows:1996 - 468 mil1997 - 4711998 - 4761999 - 4662000 - 4152001 - 3902002 - 3802003 - 3722004 - 3762005 - 381Obviously they took a lot of the company out of the market a few years ago.
Four of ten years on the Income Statement show decreases, while six of then ten show increases.
Ed, IIRC our wonderful Federal Government played to populism a few years ago and limited the amount a corporation could deduct from its income taxes for CEO pay to $1,000,000.
I think good CEO talent is pretty rare (see Snow at CSX, Davidson at UP, etc. Who was that woman at Sara Lee? Problems, problems) A bad CEO will hurt a company faily quickly. So the good ones are in high demand.
Now a person who can manage Pfizer is obviously worth more than $1 million/year. So says the CEO market.
Pfizer gets around the asinine tax law (the govt. shouldn't try to influence what Pfizer pays its management) by granting stock options.
I don't think it's a big deal. If he gets the stock up to $30 he's done his job well and he'll be rewarded with $5 million/year less his own taxes. I don't think that's outrageous pay for someone who can do that job.
People with rare talents and abilities get paid well. That's a good thing. And I don't see anyone being harmed by the stock options.
The best stock option deal I ever had was when I was a programer at MCI. (In the time before Bernie Ebers) The purchase price was set at the beginning of the year at 85% of the current market price. That's the most we ever paid. If MCI stock went up our purchase price didn't. If MCI stock went down, we paid only 85% of the market price. This was open to all MCI employees. We could buy the stock by payroll deduction.
Naturally, I maxed out my purchases. I left the company and sold all my MCI stock before that bad CEO, Bernie Ebers, crashed the company. He's in the jailhouse now, or at least on his way there.
I don't get upset by CEO pay. A good one is worth his/her weight in gold.
MP173 wrote:<snipped> Turning to something I do understand a little bit...I find it interesting that the railroads, particularly BNSF will continue to purchase it's shares on the open market (share buyback) and not invest that $$$ into it's own infrastructure. Now, I realize that budgets are established and any free cash must be utilized in order to maximize ROE, but if a company buys back stock, yet borrows for capex, what is the point? Unless it is to mask the increasing number of stock options, which might be the case. ed
Getting back to the original subject, another "quote of note:"
"Any program that provides sufficient funds..."
This is the same question that's been floating in all these threads on this subject. It doesn't matter if the government or a private company owns the rails, they still need a BIG investment to make his dreams come true.
Notice that this guy is living in a theoretical world. He can't even tell you where the money will come from. In the real world, none of these investments in any type of infrastructure construction or improvements will get started until that question is answered. And there's a LOT of other projects and special interests looking to get a piece of that same pot of money.
MP173 wrote:I find it interesting that the railroads, particularly BNSF will continue to purchase it's shares on the open market (share buyback) and not invest that $$$ into it's own infrastructure. Now, I realize that budgets are established and any free cash must be utilized in order to maximize ROE, but if a company buys back stock, yet borrows for capex, what is the point? Unless it is to mask the increasing number of stock options, which might be the case.
I would say that the improvements in the efficiency of global communication and transportation systems and the elimination of political and monetary barriers to free trade were needed to facilitate the shift. Further, in 1966, there was not all that much institutional knowledge on the subject of manufacturing in a foreign environment.
In 1966 it was much more difficult to take advantage of labor costs than it is today.
I don't mean to suggest that there is no risks involved in the current situation. If China decides to let the Yuan float or political changes in the Far East result in a major disruption in manufacturing, I think we may find ourselves hanging out to dry.
"We have met the enemy and he is us." Pogo Possum "We have met the anemone... and he is Russ." Bucky Katt "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." Niels Bohr, Nobel laureate in physics
MP173 wrote:Dave:IHowever, the discussion of who the beneficiaries are (domestic vs foreign) is opening up a very large can of worms. We are already sending strong signals regarding investment in our country...the Chinese were not allowed to invest in oil ( I think Unical) and the ports on the east coast were addressed recently.
I think it would be very hard to invest in one and not the other. Most main lines that need upgrading have both domestic and foreign traffic on them, so how to do determine which lines get the help? Also, it would have been nice to see the railroads response to this, but as usual Dave only posts stuff to support his arguement. What's the matter Dave, you were made to look like a fool on the Touble in Open Access Paradise thread, so you had to try to turn it around???
Bert
An "expensive model collector"
jeaton wrote: I didn't make the assertion, FM did. My opinion is only based on anecdotal information, but I would place labor cost as the first factor.
I didn't make the assertion, FM did. My opinion is only based on anecdotal information, but I would place labor cost as the first factor.
But, labor cost has always been a significant differential -- more so 40 years ago than today. Does that explain why manufacturing has moved overseas?
The Yuan is undervalued by many reports, by as much as 40%.
Tariffs and transportation costs have changed significantly. Perhaps the three together have leveraged the shift.
Michael
I understand that China has its currency pegged to the US dollar. I think they produce the largest share of US imports (except for Canada and Mexico), but they are certainly not the only Far East source of consumer goods. If China's currency was allowed to float, just what would be the change and how would it impact the balance of trade?
It is true that a manufacturing facility can be thrown up in China without meeting environmental or safety requirements, provided, of course, that the Chinese government approves. But how does that explain why companies close down perfectly good manufacturing facilities in the US and move production out of the country?
Maybe a comparison of the actual cost of shipping a consumer good to, let's say, Denver from Chicago vs. Denver from any Chinese port city might be a reasonable illustration of the alleged inbalance of import vs domestic rates.
jeaton wrote: futuremodal wrote: MP173 wrote:Dave:I think that is a reasonable quid pro quo 25% investment tax credit for "addressing concerns."However, the discussion of who the beneficiaries are (domestic vs foreign) is opening up a very large can of worms. We are already sending strong signals regarding investment in our country...the Chinese were not allowed to invest in oil ( I think Unical) and the ports on the east coast were addressed recently.The US has always invested heavily in outside countries. This attempt by corporations to have it both ways (the ability to invest overseas while restricting investment or marketing of products here) sends very mixed signals and is extremely short sighted.The reason the containers are streaming in from Asia is not the low rail prices, it is the inability of the United States corporations to produce at market prices. As long as labor rates overseas are what they are (India will probably be the next China) we will have this problem.ed All good points, but one thing remains paramount - if it is the US taxpayers who are (indirectly) paying for the infrastructure investments, then said investments should favor domestic over foriegn interests, right? Relative labor rates overseas are not the number one reason for the inability of US firms to compete in the US consumer market. Number one is the currency manipulation by the Chinese to keep the Chinese currency artificially low vs the US dollar. Number two is the environmental/regulatory/litigatory red tape that prevents US corporations from making the capital investments necessary to adjust to global changes in semi-real time. (It took the Chinese about 6 months from the development of the idea to actual begining of construction of the new Chinese rail lines. The DM&E saga has run over a decade now and they have yet to turn a spade of dirt for the new railroad grade.) Number three is the imbalance of import transportation rates vs export transportation rates (of which US railroads play a major role). Number four is the relative labor rate differential. The source of the above is You?
futuremodal wrote: MP173 wrote:Dave:I think that is a reasonable quid pro quo 25% investment tax credit for "addressing concerns."However, the discussion of who the beneficiaries are (domestic vs foreign) is opening up a very large can of worms. We are already sending strong signals regarding investment in our country...the Chinese were not allowed to invest in oil ( I think Unical) and the ports on the east coast were addressed recently.The US has always invested heavily in outside countries. This attempt by corporations to have it both ways (the ability to invest overseas while restricting investment or marketing of products here) sends very mixed signals and is extremely short sighted.The reason the containers are streaming in from Asia is not the low rail prices, it is the inability of the United States corporations to produce at market prices. As long as labor rates overseas are what they are (India will probably be the next China) we will have this problem.ed All good points, but one thing remains paramount - if it is the US taxpayers who are (indirectly) paying for the infrastructure investments, then said investments should favor domestic over foriegn interests, right? Relative labor rates overseas are not the number one reason for the inability of US firms to compete in the US consumer market. Number one is the currency manipulation by the Chinese to keep the Chinese currency artificially low vs the US dollar. Number two is the environmental/regulatory/litigatory red tape that prevents US corporations from making the capital investments necessary to adjust to global changes in semi-real time. (It took the Chinese about 6 months from the development of the idea to actual begining of construction of the new Chinese rail lines. The DM&E saga has run over a decade now and they have yet to turn a spade of dirt for the new railroad grade.) Number three is the imbalance of import transportation rates vs export transportation rates (of which US railroads play a major role). Number four is the relative labor rate differential.
MP173 wrote:Dave:I think that is a reasonable quid pro quo 25% investment tax credit for "addressing concerns."However, the discussion of who the beneficiaries are (domestic vs foreign) is opening up a very large can of worms. We are already sending strong signals regarding investment in our country...the Chinese were not allowed to invest in oil ( I think Unical) and the ports on the east coast were addressed recently.The US has always invested heavily in outside countries. This attempt by corporations to have it both ways (the ability to invest overseas while restricting investment or marketing of products here) sends very mixed signals and is extremely short sighted.The reason the containers are streaming in from Asia is not the low rail prices, it is the inability of the United States corporations to produce at market prices. As long as labor rates overseas are what they are (India will probably be the next China) we will have this problem.ed
All good points, but one thing remains paramount - if it is the US taxpayers who are (indirectly) paying for the infrastructure investments, then said investments should favor domestic over foriegn interests, right?
Relative labor rates overseas are not the number one reason for the inability of US firms to compete in the US consumer market. Number one is the currency manipulation by the Chinese to keep the Chinese currency artificially low vs the US dollar. Number two is the environmental/regulatory/litigatory red tape that prevents US corporations from making the capital investments necessary to adjust to global changes in semi-real time. (It took the Chinese about 6 months from the development of the idea to actual begining of construction of the new Chinese rail lines. The DM&E saga has run over a decade now and they have yet to turn a spade of dirt for the new railroad grade.) Number three is the imbalance of import transportation rates vs export transportation rates (of which US railroads play a major role). Number four is the relative labor rate differential.
The source of the above is You?
Jay, those are all good points. Which ones do you disagree with, and why? Or how would you order them differently, and why?
Best regards, Michael Sol
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