QUOTE: Originally posted by ridinrails2099 QUOTE: Originally posted by BNSF railfan. Ya well how about NO MAN CREW TRAINS? Trains on the Main line running them selves without no crews at all. Just think,Won't have no one to wave at. According to the UP that day is a coming! I am a conductor for the BNSF, as unfortunate as all of this sounds, this is all a reality...the No Man Crew might still be a little ways off...however the 1 man crew is right on the doorstep, our unions and the company are currently in Austin TX doing their collective bargaining process working up new agreements and such. I have heard and read a message from John Fleps with the BNSF that basically says that they will not settle until the crew consist agreement is shortened. Also on a sidenote, I spoke with my union rep a couple weeks ago while coming on duty, and he said he had recently spoke with a Road Foreman of Engines who said that the new locomotives are coming out with GPS technology, essentially the conductor will board the train, swipe his card, and the GPS will be activated, the train will then proceed. On the locomotive a remote control beltpack will be mounted, when a setout or pickup is to be made, the conductor will link up his RCO and make the setout or pickup, then when hes done, board the locomotive and swipe his/her card again, and off the train goes again. I am fully against this "technology" simply because this is stealing jobs, especially younger guys such as myself, i have a little over 2 years seniority, and over 3000 under me systemwide...but my job is now in jeopardy thanks to this madness...
QUOTE: Originally posted by BNSF railfan. Ya well how about NO MAN CREW TRAINS? Trains on the Main line running them selves without no crews at all. Just think,Won't have no one to wave at. According to the UP that day is a coming!
QUOTE: Originally posted by jeaton In their 2003 annual report to the Surf, the UP reported unit, through and way train mileage of about 162 million miles. T&E payroll was about $1.12 billion. That comes to about $6.91 per train mile for crew costs. Add about 15% for fringe benefits and you are at $7.95. If engineers get a little more than half that, let us say that the potential savings for the one man is somewhere around $3.95 per train mile. That is assuming that the lonesome pay is insignificant. I think *** Davidson shot himself in the foot by saying that one man would only be use where technology is in place. The UTU may talk the talk about no one man crews allowed, but may find that they are not going come away with total victory. It seems to me the union's fall back position would be to have the contract spell the technology that has to be in place. "One man engine assignments if CTC and Positive Train Control are in place along with effective monitoring of the condition of the man". If they can't play the safety card for that position, you UTU guys need another negotiating crew. So what happens next. Going back to 2003, the UP reported cost for train crews (separated from engine crews) at $493 million so maybe some portion of that cost can be reduce when the new contract goes in effect. What about expansion of the trackage with the required technology in place. Consider this. I have seen the number of $1 million per mile to install CTC. If 8% is the cost of capital, that means interest of $80,000 per year on the investment. If, BIG IF, 55 trains a day are running that mile of track, the cost savings for one man will cover the interest. $3.95X55 trainsX365 days=$79,296. Don't look for massive upgrading with new technology everwhere. Shorter trains? I doubt it. Assume a 2500 mile run from Chicago to the West Coast. One man saves about $10,000. Isn't that about the revenue from four or five cars? In other words, a one man train could only be four or five cars shorter and still provide the same dollars to common costs, overhead and profit. Bottom line is, I am not going to bet that "one man" is diesalization or two man crews. Jay
QUOTE: Originally posted by greyhounds QUOTE: Originally posted by BNSFGP38 QUOTE: Originally posted by macguy It's going to be interesting to see how this kind of thing progresses, not only to see what kinds of technology are brought in, but also to see what kinds of new jobs are created and how many of the old ones will be axed. Some please explain to my feeble short line mind how cutting half the operation positions......IE conductors creates jobs????????????[zzz] If the cost of running a train is reduced more trains will be run. There will be more engineers needed. The equation for maximizing profits is marginal costs = marginal revenue. Reducing the costs of running a train will reduce the revenue needed to justify a train. So more engineers will be needed. Additionally, there will be workers needed to assist the engineer in certain situations - these will also be added workers. I love this idea.
QUOTE: Originally posted by BNSFGP38 QUOTE: Originally posted by macguy It's going to be interesting to see how this kind of thing progresses, not only to see what kinds of technology are brought in, but also to see what kinds of new jobs are created and how many of the old ones will be axed. Some please explain to my feeble short line mind how cutting half the operation positions......IE conductors creates jobs????????????[zzz]
QUOTE: Originally posted by macguy It's going to be interesting to see how this kind of thing progresses, not only to see what kinds of technology are brought in, but also to see what kinds of new jobs are created and how many of the old ones will be axed.
QUOTE: Originally posted by jeaton What about expansion of the trackage with the required technology in place. Consider this. I have seen the number of $1 million per mile to install CTC. If 8% is the cost of capital, that means interest of $80,000 per year on the investment. If, BIG IF, 55 trains a day are running that mile of track, the cost savings for one man will cover the interest. $3.95X55 trainsX365 days=$79,296. Don't look for massive upgrading with new technology everwhere.
"We have met the enemy and he is us." Pogo Possum "We have met the anemone... and he is Russ." Bucky Katt "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." Niels Bohr, Nobel laureate in physics
QUOTE: You must be a Kerry supporter cause that is some fuzzy math! Example. Railroad with 100 engineers, 100 conductors. I keep the 100 engineers and I cut 75 condcutor positions keeping the other 25 for yeard duty. I keep another 25 guys as "technicans" paying them to do what they already did. Thats still 50 people out of work with familys to support. And I cant run anymore trains cause my capcity sucks.
QUOTE: Originally posted by jeaton LC I know that the Indiana Railroad has put stuff to work so they can run one man trains. I am not saying that the Class 1's couldn't drop the road conductor position on everything-tomorrow, if they wanted-save for the union contract work rules. My guess is that they are not going to get carte blanche in the next contract and the savings will fall far short of the Wall Street estimate (in writing). But, don't make any stock moves on my say. Jay
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