Vermontanan2 NS 145: I agree that the CPKC line from Mexico City to Laredo has the most dense amount of traffic. But I don't with your statement, "CPKC will force the long haul to the furthest distant US interchange points possible. And with that $31 billion purchase price they are going to have to milk the cow dry. Circuity won't matter when the longest CPKC service routes are the cheapest ones for shippers." This seems contradictory. It's true that $31 billion price tag is an albatross that needs to be addressed, but there is a point when circuity matters. And circuity is what is going to limit what CPKC can charge and still make money. Example: A car from Mexico to Indianapolis for CSX delivery. On the UP routing, UP takes the car to interchange to CSX in St. Elmo, Illinois (on a run-through train), then direct to Indianapolis, 1294 miles from Laredo. If CPKC forces the interchange to CSX in Chicago (their nearest location), the mileage balloons to 1917 miles or almost 50% more. So on a strictly distance basis, CPKC is going to take half again as long. Throw in CPKC's limitation of a single route with steeper grades versus UP's directional running across Texas and Arkansas on flatter terrain and with much greater meet/pass capability, and the "new" CPKC routing will likely take twice as long or more. That begs the question: So can CPKC really afford to be cheaper and still pay of its debt? And is it only artificially cheaper to get the business but isn't covering the cost of the operation? And, given the doubling of car cycle time, can the shipper really afford the extra transit time? This depends on the commodity, but the bottom line is that CPKC's route (and there really is just one) is so skeletal, that situations like this Indianapolis example will be the rule more often than the exception. Sure, CPKC could force cars for Mobile and Wichita to move hundreds of extra miles via Shreveport to interchange at New Orleans and Dallas for a longer haul on their railroad (with great cost), but they're not going to "corner the market" on traffic for the Western USA; UP's still going to get that. In the end, traffic tends to gravitate to the most-efficient, lowest-cost routes. And that's never going to be CPKC north of the Mexico-USA border.
NS 145: I agree that the CPKC line from Mexico City to Laredo has the most dense amount of traffic. But I don't with your statement, "CPKC will force the long haul to the furthest distant US interchange points possible. And with that $31 billion purchase price they are going to have to milk the cow dry. Circuity won't matter when the longest CPKC service routes are the cheapest ones for shippers."
This seems contradictory. It's true that $31 billion price tag is an albatross that needs to be addressed, but there is a point when circuity matters. And circuity is what is going to limit what CPKC can charge and still make money. Example: A car from Mexico to Indianapolis for CSX delivery. On the UP routing, UP takes the car to interchange to CSX in St. Elmo, Illinois (on a run-through train), then direct to Indianapolis, 1294 miles from Laredo. If CPKC forces the interchange to CSX in Chicago (their nearest location), the mileage balloons to 1917 miles or almost 50% more. So on a strictly distance basis, CPKC is going to take half again as long. Throw in CPKC's limitation of a single route with steeper grades versus UP's directional running across Texas and Arkansas on flatter terrain and with much greater meet/pass capability, and the "new" CPKC routing will likely take twice as long or more. That begs the question: So can CPKC really afford to be cheaper and still pay of its debt? And is it only artificially cheaper to get the business but isn't covering the cost of the operation? And, given the doubling of car cycle time, can the shipper really afford the extra transit time? This depends on the commodity, but the bottom line is that CPKC's route (and there really is just one) is so skeletal, that situations like this Indianapolis example will be the rule more often than the exception. Sure, CPKC could force cars for Mobile and Wichita to move hundreds of extra miles via Shreveport to interchange at New Orleans and Dallas for a longer haul on their railroad (with great cost), but they're not going to "corner the market" on traffic for the Western USA; UP's still going to get that.
In the end, traffic tends to gravitate to the most-efficient, lowest-cost routes. And that's never going to be CPKC north of the Mexico-USA border.
CPKC will poison-pill their portion of joint rates with UP to meet or beat the combined CPKC/UP routing rates.
See paragraph 4 in the UP lawsuit newswire story - this is exactly what UP is concerned about:
https://www.trains.com/trn/news-reviews/news-wire/laredo-and-houston-concerns-prompted-union-pacific-lawsuit-over-stbs-canadian-pacific-kansas-city-southern-merger-decision/
Post-Staggers/PSR, the most efficient routes don't always win out if one railroad has dominant control over a traffic source. Its just too easy to manipulate joint rates and special car handling charges at interchange gateways. All the shippers care about is what the final price is. I'm sure many of them know that they are getting swindled in many cases, but its pretty obvious that the STB is useless in resolving these situations. Typical American approach. The ICC had too much power so we'll fix things by creating a new entity with not enough power. Bad outcomes in both cases, but at least they're different bad outcomes. Mission accomplished.
Ed:Great report. I look forward to seeing it daily. While the train count is important, to me the critical number is the number of revenue loads (containers) on the 180/181. It will be of interest to see how that volume changes over the next few months.
On a totally unrelated topic...has anyone seen the new Virtual Railfan "Big 10 Curve" webcam? Not much action on the line (ex Rio Grande west of Denver) but it is quite a view. Sorry to hijack this thread. If discussion warrants I will start a new thread.
ed
This morning (May 25, 2023) finally saw a sizable southbound stack train through Iowa. Train 180 had 44 platforms with 86 Schneider containers, about 30 containers more than any prior train.
Meanwhile, Train 181 has still been intermittent, running only eight times during the past 12 days through Ottumwa. On May 22 it carried a peak of 63 containers after not running the day before.
A few doublestacks have even appeared through Dubuque on manifests headed north. These were not Schneiders.
Overall train counts are little changed from before. During the past 11 days an average of 6.6 trains have passed Ottumwa daily, including 2.5 manifest, 1.5 intermodal, and 1.1 tank trains. The rest have been covered hopper, sand, or coal unit trains. Train counts ranged from 5 to 8 per day.
CPKC can corner the market on the traffic that they control originating in Mexico. According to a TRAINS article in November 2013, the KCSM lines moved 40-45% of all the rail traffic in Mexico. They also serve something like 13 of the 16 auto plants in Mexico. Ferromex looks way bigger and badder on a map, but in reality its mostly made up of a lot of light density lines.
With control of that traffic, CPKC will force the long haul to the furthest distant US interchange points possible. And with that $31 billion purchase price they are going to have to milk the cow dry. Circuity won't matter when the longest CPKC service routes are the cheapest ones for shippers. And with traffic terminating in Mexico, they can raise their Mexico-only joint rates with UP high enough to make it more cost-effective to move traffic south in their new single line service. There is a real threat here to UP's near-monopoly between Chicago and Mexico, which is why they are initiating legal action.
In all fairness, though, IF UP was willing to make use of its more direct routes and lower operating costs to undercut CPKC's rates by a considerable margin, I do think that UP could put CPKC in great peril. The trouble is no Class I wants to steal traffic away from another carrier using such means. Can't get a 55 OR going that route. I don't dispute your "UP is physically superior argument", but given how rail economics currently work it all becomes irrelevant (which just goes to show how distorted everything has become in the rail industry).
MidlandMike Vermontanan2 UP still gets more traffic at Laredo than CPKC, ... It's unknown what will happen now that the former KCS has become part of a single line that goes beyond KC.
Vermontanan2 UP still gets more traffic at Laredo than CPKC, ...
It's unknown what will happen now that the former KCS has become part of a single line that goes beyond KC.
NS145 CPKC is superior because they control the best rail franchise in Mexico and can corner the market. Any traffic to/from UP via Laredo will be subject to a joint rate that CPKC will set for the portion of the movement south of Laredo. Not too hard to imagine how CPKC can work this situation to their advantage, especially if you're UP (they know all about cornering markets).
Vermontanan2UP still gets more traffic at Laredo than CPKC, ...
CPKC is superior because they control the best rail franchise in Mexico and can corner the market. Any traffic to/from UP via Laredo will be subject to a joint rate that CPKC will set for the portion of the movement south of Laredo. Not too hard to imagine how CPKC can work this situation to their advantage, especially if you're UP (they know all about cornering markets).
Los Angeles Rams Guy Oh, then I guess it's just my imagination that UP has its undies all bunched up acct the Laredo gateway then, huh?
Los Angeles Rams Guy So much for our "inferior" routing.
Vermontanan2 CMStPnP So I can tell from the comments above you have never been to Dallas Been there literally hundreds of times in the 22 years I lived in the Metroplex. Try again. CMStPnP and just looking at a route map which in the case of DFW is somewhat generalized and vague. They have one mainline into Garland which is a suburb of Dallas. I would not call it a "branch line" from the maintenence standards maybe might be operationally. Off that mainline they have a branch to Plano from Wylie and I believe off to Fort Worth (Alliance). As for minimal customer access, they have more than one intermodal facility here. I don't know about frieght yards as their trackage is too extensive and spread out through out the metro area. Would take days to follow it all. Not really. KCS's presence in the Dallas area is pretty limited. Actually, their line from Shreveport to Dallas is up to main line standards - good for 60 MPH for intermodal trains and has CTC. Most of the intermodal traffic is to/from NS interchange at Meridian, Mississippi. They only have the one intermodal facility at Wylie. Most KCS activity in the Metroplex is limited to this area North and Northeast of Dallas, though they do interchange with UP and DG&NO. KCS (or CPKC) does operate trains (once a day is about it) through to BNSF's Alliance Yard via the former ATSF Dallas line through Lewisville to Metro (then on BNSF from Metro to Alliance). But overall, KCS's presence in Fort Worth - the area's railroad center - is zilch. The many UP and BNSF yards (Intermodal and otherwise) in the Metroplex dwarf anything the KCS has. Arlington, Midlothian, Irving, Saginaw are just a few of the examples of HUGE areas of traffic generation in the Metroplex where KCS isn't even an afterthought. They're just not there. But despite the fact that you failed to prove KCS has significant relevance in the Dallas/Fort Worth area, you also missed the point: Dallas is but one place, and all the other aforementioned places (in my previous post) CPKC will continue to be shut out of since they just have such a limited "network" in Texas. In fact, "network" is a bit of misnomer as they have a very skeletal route structure. Not only do BNSF and UP serve most of the customers in Texas, but unlike CPKC, they don't for the most part have just a singular route. Should traffic to/from Texas balloon as you suggest, BNSF and UP will benefit to a much greater extent than CPKC can ever hope for considering their fantastically inferior routes.
CMStPnP So I can tell from the comments above you have never been to Dallas
So I can tell from the comments above you have never been to Dallas
Been there literally hundreds of times in the 22 years I lived in the Metroplex. Try again.
CMStPnP and just looking at a route map which in the case of DFW is somewhat generalized and vague. They have one mainline into Garland which is a suburb of Dallas. I would not call it a "branch line" from the maintenence standards maybe might be operationally. Off that mainline they have a branch to Plano from Wylie and I believe off to Fort Worth (Alliance). As for minimal customer access, they have more than one intermodal facility here. I don't know about frieght yards as their trackage is too extensive and spread out through out the metro area. Would take days to follow it all.
and just looking at a route map which in the case of DFW is somewhat generalized and vague. They have one mainline into Garland which is a suburb of Dallas. I would not call it a "branch line" from the maintenence standards maybe might be operationally. Off that mainline they have a branch to Plano from Wylie and I believe off to Fort Worth (Alliance). As for minimal customer access, they have more than one intermodal facility here. I don't know about frieght yards as their trackage is too extensive and spread out through out the metro area. Would take days to follow it all.
Not really. KCS's presence in the Dallas area is pretty limited. Actually, their line from Shreveport to Dallas is up to main line standards - good for 60 MPH for intermodal trains and has CTC. Most of the intermodal traffic is to/from NS interchange at Meridian, Mississippi.
They only have the one intermodal facility at Wylie. Most KCS activity in the Metroplex is limited to this area North and Northeast of Dallas, though they do interchange with UP and DG&NO. KCS (or CPKC) does operate trains (once a day is about it) through to BNSF's Alliance Yard via the former ATSF Dallas line through Lewisville to Metro (then on BNSF from Metro to Alliance). But overall, KCS's presence in Fort Worth - the area's railroad center - is zilch. The many UP and BNSF yards (Intermodal and otherwise) in the Metroplex dwarf anything the KCS has. Arlington, Midlothian, Irving, Saginaw are just a few of the examples of HUGE areas of traffic generation in the Metroplex where KCS isn't even an afterthought. They're just not there.
But despite the fact that you failed to prove KCS has significant relevance in the Dallas/Fort Worth area, you also missed the point: Dallas is but one place, and all the other aforementioned places (in my previous post) CPKC will continue to be shut out of since they just have such a limited "network" in Texas. In fact, "network" is a bit of misnomer as they have a very skeletal route structure. Not only do BNSF and UP serve most of the customers in Texas, but unlike CPKC, they don't for the most part have just a singular route.
Should traffic to/from Texas balloon as you suggest, BNSF and UP will benefit to a much greater extent than CPKC can ever hope for considering their fantastically inferior routes.
Oh, then I guess it's just my imagination that UP has its undies all bunched up acct the Laredo gateway then, huh? So much for our "inferior" routing.
The new Steel Highway Railcam in Clinton, IA is scheduled to go live midweek of the coming week. Due to the location of the host it will be best for CPKC, but will have a limited view of the UP mainline. I have been waiting for this camera as it will give a view of the Chicago trains out of Nahant Yd. It will also allow viewers to see the result of block swapping done at Nahant Yard (Davenport, IA) when combined with the Railcams at Muscatine.
Vermontanan2And there's a whole lot of Texas CPKC doesn't serve, like Houston/Texas City/Galveston, San Antonio, Austin, Fort Worth, Lubbock, El Paso, Amarillo, Odessa-Midland, Killeen-Temple, Waco, Wichita Falls, etc. CPKC serves Beaumont/Port Authur and Corpus Christi. Dallas at the end of a branch line and customer access is minimal. They will retain whatever interchange is available with NS at Meridian, MS, but otherwise they don't go to most places in Texas or their route is highly inferior. And accent on route, as in singular. Unlike BNSF and UP, CPKC's route to Texas from the Upper Midwest - as circuitous as it is - is all they got, circuity, heavy grades and all.
So I can tell from the comments above you have never been to Dallas and just looking at a route map which in the case of DFW is somewhat generalized and vague. They have one mainline into Garland which is a suburb of Dallas. I would not call it a "branch line" from the maintenence standards maybe might be operationally. Off that mainline they have a branch to Plano from Wylie and I believe off to Fort Worth (Alliance). As for minimal customer access, they have more than one intermodal facility here. I don't know about frieght yards as their trackage is too extensive and spread out through out the metro area. Would take days to follow it all.
CMStPnP So everyone is focused on Mexico because of the press releases from the merger obviously. Have you looked at or considered CP's new access to Texas? Texas is growing very rapidly and should fly by California in the next 5-10 years in terms of Economy and Population growth. Seems to me that has a corresponding impact to railroad revenue and traffic. It's not just Mexico.
So everyone is focused on Mexico because of the press releases from the merger obviously. Have you looked at or considered CP's new access to Texas? Texas is growing very rapidly and should fly by California in the next 5-10 years in terms of Economy and Population growth. Seems to me that has a corresponding impact to railroad revenue and traffic. It's not just Mexico.
And there's a whole lot of Texas CPKC doesn't serve, like Houston/Texas City/Galveston, San Antonio, Austin, Fort Worth, Lubbock, El Paso, Amarillo, Odessa-Midland, Killeen-Temple, Waco, Wichita Falls, etc. CPKC serves Beaumont/Port Authur and Corpus Christi. Dallas at the end of a branch line and customer access is minimal. They will retain whatever interchange is available with NS at Meridian, MS, but otherwise they don't go to most places in Texas or their route is highly inferior. And accent on route, as in singular. Unlike BNSF and UP, CPKC's route to Texas from the Upper Midwest - as circuitous as it is - is all they got, circuity, heavy grades and all.
And, of course, something changed! While southbound Train 180 has been consistent, and slowly growing (30 cars with 57 containers on May 19), northbound Train 181 did not appear at all through Iowa on Thursday May 18, 2023. On Friday May 19, it arrived many hours later than it had previously but also with many more containers and with a tail end surprise. 181 crossed the Ottumwa Subdivision during the early to mid-afternoon (Muscatine at 1522) with KCS 4182/4532 leading 16 intermodal platforms carrying 25 containers, 5 autoracks, and, at its end, filled out with 48 presumably-empty covered hoppers!
Wednesday May 17, 2023 saw 180/181 again meet somewhere between Muscatine waterfront and Washington, Iowa. Southbound 180 had 4 autoracks and 22 well cars with 43 containers, most or all Schneider, passing Muscatine at 0555. Counterpart 181 had two well cars with 3 containers and 21 autoracks passing Muscatine at 0732. Two locomotives on each train.
With a pattern established, I'll only update going forward if something changes. I'll be watching for heavier container loadings on 181 for example. All of those Schneiders going south have to come back eventually, right?
traisessive1 SD60MAC9500 APL Logistics is not a part of APL anymore. APL Logistics is owned by KWE Group. APL Logisitics and American President Lines are not the same thing. American President Lines APL is owned by CMA CGM. APL Logistics containers are blue as well. That's my mistake.
SD60MAC9500 APL Logistics is not a part of APL anymore. APL Logistics is owned by KWE Group.
APL Logistics is not a part of APL anymore. APL Logistics is owned by KWE Group.
Never said they were the same. I'm fully aware of who owns APL these days. Before APL was bought by Neptune Orient Lines in 1997 they operated a few divisions including the container line. APL Land Transport (domestic intermodal network which became Pacer Stacktrain now STG Logistics), and American Eagle Tanker(which NOL sold in 2003). To get techinal NOL operations(NOL remained the name of the holding company)assumed APL's brand and image for recognition so in that regard the original APL didn't exist after 1997. APL Logistics was created in 2001 for the domestic intermodal market and forwarding service. KWE Group bought APL Logistics in 2015 from NOL prior to the CMA-CGM acquisition of NOL/APL Group in 2016.
10000 feet and no dynamics? Today is going to be a good day ...
Ed Kyle Today's (Tuesday May 16, 2023) intermodals must have met near Muscatine. 180 passed the Muscatine, Iowa waterfront southbound at 0458, 2x0 with 30 well or spine cars and 48 containers (ish). 181 passed northbound at 0620, 2x0 with 8 autoracks and 5 well cars with 8 containers. Adding to the fun was a northbound sand train at 0436. Train 181 has been slowly growing since it began, but is still tiny.
Today's (Tuesday May 16, 2023) intermodals must have met near Muscatine. 180 passed the Muscatine, Iowa waterfront southbound at 0458, 2x0 with 30 well or spine cars and 48 containers (ish). 181 passed northbound at 0620, 2x0 with 8 autoracks and 5 well cars with 8 containers. Adding to the fun was a northbound sand train at 0436. Train 181 has been slowly growing since it began, but is still tiny.
MP173I think a good marketing tool would have been to offer either free service or dramatically reduced rates for the first few trips to allow potential customers to review service.
Any shipper that 'needs convincing' will watch while competitors try out the system, discover the bugs and failures and lies, and run up the 'learning curve' of the new operation. Once it is provable established, at a minimum of risk and cost together, they may divert some of their traffic.
Evidently CPKC guaranteed enough QoS to Schneider that they contracted. Right there you have a need to 'run the franchise' if only with midget consists or power-balancing moves.
Meanwhile, whether or not you throw away prospective revenue, the costs associated with damage or other concerns will still be applicable, but now without any financial upside at all. In my opinion the only reason to run a 'longer' consist for very small load is if you need the additional axles in some way, for signaling integrity or adequate braking.
Going to take awhile for the loads to show up on those intermodals.
Consistant service will allow growth.
I think a good marketing tool would have been to offer either free service or dramatically reduced rates for the first few trips to allow potential customers to review service.
Ed
SD60MAC9500 traisessive1 JayBee Ed, I checked, the blue containers were APL Logistics. APL is a subsidiary of CMA CGM. APL Logistics is not a part of APL anymore. APL Logistics is owned by KWE Group.
traisessive1 JayBee Ed, I checked, the blue containers were APL Logistics. APL is a subsidiary of CMA CGM.
JayBee Ed, I checked, the blue containers were APL Logistics. APL is a subsidiary of CMA CGM.
Ed, I checked, the blue containers were APL Logistics.
APL is a subsidiary of CMA CGM.
Can't tell the players without a updated scorecard. The players in many cases want all the confusion they can generate to stay ahead of their reputations.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
CPKC = Very awark. How about == See Peck?
Note to anyone wishing to view this train, the railcam's timeclock is still on Central Standard Time so the timestamp is 00:08.
The second 181 passed Ottumwa around 0108 this morning (May 15, 2023) with about 10 locomotives but only two well cars with four containers! This train appeared to pick up a manifest and a string of empty well cars before it passed Muscatine at 0402. Only runt trains heading into Bensenville so far. Is the bulk of these trains making it to Kansas City?
Ed Kyle I've been reviewing the Steel Highway cams. They have cams at Muscatine, Washington, and Ottumwa, Iowa on the CPKC Ottumwa Subdivision. They also have cams showing CPKC at Dubuque and a couple other places. It is interesting to see a train pass a series of cams. It is equally interesting to see one pass a cam and then sort of disappear. A manifest passed Washington the other day, for example, and did not reach Muscatine - only 38 or so miles away - until 18 hours had passed!
I've been reviewing the Steel Highway cams. They have cams at Muscatine, Washington, and Ottumwa, Iowa on the CPKC Ottumwa Subdivision. They also have cams showing CPKC at Dubuque and a couple other places. It is interesting to see a train pass a series of cams. It is equally interesting to see one pass a cam and then sort of disappear. A manifest passed Washington the other day, for example, and did not reach Muscatine - only 38 or so miles away - until 18 hours had passed!
MP173 Ed Kyle:Do you live in Muscatine or that area or is there a webcam you access. I always enjoyed my travels to Muscatine...busy small town with lots of industry. The drive on Iowa 22 along the Mississippi (and the CP line, ex Rock Island) was scenic. Ed
Ed Kyle:Do you live in Muscatine or that area or is there a webcam you access.
I always enjoyed my travels to Muscatine...busy small town with lots of industry. The drive on Iowa 22 along the Mississippi (and the CP line, ex Rock Island) was scenic.
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