Trains.com

The designated (off-topic) Ukraine war thread Locked

32865 views
802 replies
1 rating 2 rating 3 rating 4 rating 5 rating
  • Member since
    November 2021
  • 211 posts
Posted by JayBee on Monday, April 11, 2022 2:02 PM

NorthBrit

I believe once they have captured Dombas Russia will seek peace with Ukraine.

David

 
The Russians won't stop until they reach the border with NATO countries or they are stopped by the Ukrainians. Russian soldiers are just expendable tools for their Kremlin masters. The only reasson they would stop at the NATO border is that they will need another batch of conscripts and their leaders might need time to formulated some kind of plan.
  • Member since
    October 2020
  • 3,604 posts
Posted by NorthBrit on Monday, April 11, 2022 1:10 PM

Now that Russia has destroyed parts of North Ukraine their attention is to be the Donbas Region where a  large percentage of people are 'Russian'.

I believe once they have captured Dombas Russia will seek peace with Ukraine.

Meanwhile Russia has been attacking Moldovan shipping.   The area in Moldova called Transnistra already has Russian soldiers stationed there.   There are 'proposals in Transnistra for joining the Russian Federation'.   The Moldovan Government has repeatedly asked Russia to withdraw their troops.  It has to be remembered that Moldova is a neutral country.

Russia has warned both Sweden and Finland not to join NATO.   Since Russia's attack on Ukraine both countries are looking at their own safety against Russian aggression.   Joining NATO would be one way.

 

David

To the world you are someone.    To someone you are the world

I cannot afford the luxury of a negative thought

  • Member since
    February 2018
  • From: Flyover Country
  • 5,557 posts
Posted by York1 on Monday, April 11, 2022 1:06 PM

Deleted by poster.

York1 John       

  • Member since
    December 2001
  • From: Northern New York
  • 25,020 posts
Posted by tree68 on Monday, April 11, 2022 1:05 PM

charlie hebdo
That situation does not exist in the same manner with Putin.

I tend to agree.  Putin may be the face of the Russion effort, but I would opine that there are a lot of frustrated former Soviets behind him.  

LarryWhistling
Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) 
Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you
My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date
Come ride the rails with me!
There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...

  • Member since
    September 2017
  • 5,636 posts
Posted by charlie hebdo on Monday, April 11, 2022 12:52 PM

Backshop

 

 
Euclid
My point is that I have expected this war to be portrayed very up close and personal.  It will strongly market the idea that we simply must fight to save Ukraine.  The advocates for doing just that are probably about 75% of the “West” already.  The pressure to end the carnage will become unstoppable, and NATO will simply cave out of overpowering sympathy and a big heart.  They will do the “right thing" to save Ukraine, and the result will take the world into nuclear war.  That was my point.

 

 

I disagree.  Things will just stay as a proxy war.  NATO would never be unanimous in taking on a new mission.  While you hear about the US, UK,France and the ex-Warsaw Pact countries wanting to do more, Italy, Spain, Turkey, etc., have been very quiet.

 

 

Most likely that is what this will remain, IMO. Fighting in the East, stalemate and a negotiated settlement.

  • Member since
    September 2017
  • 5,636 posts
Posted by charlie hebdo on Monday, April 11, 2022 12:45 PM

CMStPnP

 

 
Euclid
This will be identical to the premise that we should have stopped Hitler on the same moral imperative.  

 

I think you mean stopped the Nazi's.   Because they probably could have shot Hitler and Goring or Himmler would have taken over. 

Hindsight is also 20-20.    We have no clue what else is going on in Russia or what atrocities are happening across that country to maintain Putins power and we won't have an idea until after Putin is gone likely.    It was the same with the Nazi's for the most part.

 

It's hardly a foregone conclusion or widely accepted by historians that there would have been continuity if Hitler had been removed. Obviously the various groups behind the 20 July plot would not agree with your assumption.

In the Third Reich, all military and other personnel swore an oath to Hitler, which coupled with his charismatic popularity made disobedience very difficult unless he were removed.  That situation does not exist in the same manner with Putin.

 

 

 

  • Member since
    July 2016
  • 2,631 posts
Posted by Backshop on Monday, April 11, 2022 12:27 PM

Euclid
My point is that I have expected this war to be portrayed very up close and personal.  It will strongly market the idea that we simply must fight to save Ukraine.  The advocates for doing just that are probably about 75% of the “West” already.  The pressure to end the carnage will become unstoppable, and NATO will simply cave out of overpowering sympathy and a big heart.  They will do the “right thing" to save Ukraine, and the result will take the world into nuclear war.  That was my point.

I disagree.  Things will just stay as a proxy war.  NATO would never be unanimous in taking on a new mission.  While you hear about the US, UK,France and the ex-Warsaw Pact countries wanting to do more, Italy, Spain, Turkey, etc., have been very quiet.

  • Member since
    July 2016
  • 2,631 posts
Posted by Backshop on Monday, April 11, 2022 11:59 AM

charlie hebdo

kgbw49:.

The idea of Ukraine invading Russian territory seems like a silly fantasy. Your conclusions  on the endgame seem spot on.  

 

I think Ukraine invading Russian territory is a bad idea.  Ukraine being in a position to invade Russian territory is a good idea.  That would be when a settlement beneficial to Ukraine would be agreed to.

  • Member since
    May 2003
  • From: US
  • 25,292 posts
Posted by BaltACD on Monday, April 11, 2022 11:45 AM

CMStPnP
 
BaltACD
BaltACD wrote the following post 2 hours ago: One persons view points on Russia going into the future -  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwPMtmuuVNw 

China is in even worse shape in regards to depopulation.   China is so bad in that area I cannot follow how they will ever overtake us economically.    That seems like someones personal pipe dream.     The date for the Chinese Economy to grow larger than the United States......seems to keep sliding backwards and backwards in time.    Long ago the date was in 2020 sometime.

Personally I don't think it will ever happen that China will overtake us.

China's present leadership is trying to reign in what has been expansionist economic policy and is going to prevent China being the worlds largest economic power.

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

  • Member since
    December 2007
  • From: Georgia USA SW of Atlanta
  • 11,919 posts
Posted by blue streak 1 on Monday, April 11, 2022 11:16 AM
  • Member since
    June 2009
  • From: Dallas, TX
  • 6,952 posts
Posted by CMStPnP on Monday, April 11, 2022 11:06 AM

Euclid
This will be identical to the premise that we should have stopped Hitler on the same moral imperative.  

I think you mean stopped the Nazi's.   Because they probably could have shot Hitler and Goring or Himmler would have taken over. 

Hindsight is also 20-20.    We have no clue what else is going on in Russia or what atrocities are happening across that country to maintain Putins power and we won't have an idea until after Putin is gone likely.    It was the same with the Nazi's for the most part.

  • Member since
    January 2014
  • 8,221 posts
Posted by Euclid on Monday, April 11, 2022 10:56 AM

Overmod

Yes, but...

look at what he says starting at about 2:00.  How you see NATO adopting 'collective offense' produces that result, and no other.

 

Oh absolutely.  But I must clarify that I did not post that video about NATO going outside of their mission to offensively drive Russia out of Ukraine as being something I prefer.  No, it would be the end of civilization which already has a good chance of happening without NATO taking on that mission. 
 
My point is that I have expected this war to be portrayed very up close and personal.  It will strongly market the idea that we simply must fight to save Ukraine.  The advocates for doing just that are probably about 75% of the “West” already.  The pressure to end the carnage will become unstoppable, and NATO will simply cave out of overpowering sympathy and a big heart.  They will do the “right thing" to save Ukraine, and the result will take the world into nuclear war.  That was my point.
  • Member since
    June 2009
  • From: Dallas, TX
  • 6,952 posts
Posted by CMStPnP on Monday, April 11, 2022 10:44 AM

kgbw49
One observation - maybe right, maybe wrong - take it for what it is worth. But it seems the US and NATO are not 100% behind a Russian complete defeat.

I think your misreading that.    I think they are following the old Gen. Colin Powell saying that if you break it...........you fix it.     So militariliy via conquest they don't want to break Russia due to the tremendous costs of administering and running that country (look at what the cost was in Iraq a much smaller model where we got looped into even paying to upgrade their old and outdated infrastructure which had zero to do with the war) but Economically with sanctions...........no problems there on taking Russia to the cleaners.

Former PM Gordon Brown of UK is on YouTube in an interview.     He said we can no longer do business with Putin at all.   He has to leave power and he sees some kind of negotiated settlement at the end of all this where Putin leaves power and stands trial as do some of his buddies and order takers.   I guess time will tell there but if Brown is saying that publicy,  Putin has to have heard similar by now and so he must know by now there is no scenario he remains in power except where he takes on NATO and defeats or splits it.

  • Member since
    June 2009
  • From: Dallas, TX
  • 6,952 posts
Posted by CMStPnP on Monday, April 11, 2022 10:37 AM

BaltACD
BaltACD wrote the following post 2 hours ago: One persons view points on Russia going into the future -  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwPMtmuuVNw

China is in even worse shape in regards to depopulation.   China is so bad in that area I cannot follow how they will ever overtake us economically.    That seems like someones personal pipe dream.     The date for the Chinese Economy to grow larger than the United States......seems to keep sliding backwards and backwards in time.    Long ago the date was in 2020 sometime.

Personally I don't think it will ever happen that China will overtake us.

  • Member since
    September 2003
  • 21,669 posts
Posted by Overmod on Monday, April 11, 2022 10:35 AM

Yes, but...

look at what he says starting at about 2:00.  How you see NATO adopting 'collective offense' produces that result, and no other.

  • Member since
    January 2014
  • 8,221 posts
Posted by Euclid on Monday, April 11, 2022 9:41 AM
 
Look at this starting exactly at 1:05
 
 
 
This is what I have expected since this invasion began.  The world will only take so much of the horror before forcing NATO to see defeating Putin as a moral necessity. It will be outside of the normal NATO charter of collective defense under Article 5.  This will be identical to the premise that we should have stopped Hitler on the same moral imperative.  

 

  • Member since
    September 2017
  • 5,636 posts
Posted by charlie hebdo on Monday, April 11, 2022 9:31 AM

kgbw49:.

The idea of Ukraine invading Russian territory seems like a silly fantasy. Your conclusions  on the endgame seem spot on.  

  • Member since
    May 2003
  • From: US
  • 25,292 posts
Posted by BaltACD on Monday, April 11, 2022 7:50 AM

One persons view points on Russia going into the future - 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwPMtmuuVNw

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

  • Member since
    June 2009
  • From: Dallas, TX
  • 6,952 posts
Posted by CMStPnP on Monday, April 11, 2022 1:58 AM

double post.....

  • Member since
    June 2009
  • From: Dallas, TX
  • 6,952 posts
Posted by CMStPnP on Monday, April 11, 2022 1:53 AM

So this Ukrainian fighting position was well thought out due to it's location.

The fighting position uses various urban structures as cover as well as looks like it has some decent camo (until it fires a round which.....smoke from the round gives away the fighting position)    Notice where the tank is and it is using the house next to it as cover.    The Russians finally spot it and try to fire back but the house is in the way and blocks the shot.    Note though that at first the Russians have no clue where the tank is or if it is even there still and just sweep the area with suppressive fire as a precaution in the hope of suppressing the tank or anyone else out there.   The Ukrainian tank also looks like it is dug in as well using the ground as protection for part of it's hull and making it harder to hit with a round.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S27kw7XVvSA

 

  • Member since
    November 2021
  • 211 posts
Posted by JayBee on Monday, April 11, 2022 12:10 AM

A ceasefire or a peace isn't guaranteed to last, Russia lied when it seized Crimea and the Dombass. Russia could very easily just wait after a so called "peace" for the Western coallition to weaken after a year or two and use the time to reorganize. Certainly Russia will not discuss a ceasefire until they can no longer seize more ground from Ukraine.

  • Member since
    January 2015
  • 2,678 posts
Posted by kgbw49 on Sunday, April 10, 2022 11:30 PM

A few factors to consider for the idea of Ukraine invading Russia:

1. Current Ukraine supply lines from the west are not secure and are being sporadically interdicted by the Russians. That is likely to continue and increase over time as the war drags on.

2. Advancing into Russia would extend those fragile supply lines.

3. Ukraine lacks numbers in offensive weapons such as tanks and airplanes. Strategic offensives use up fuel at an increased rate compared to defensive positions.

4. Open country in Russia around Kursk (site of the largest tank battle in history in WWII) would make Ukraine armor easier targets for Russian armor. Kursk is north of Kharkiv, sort of "on the road to Moscow".

5. Ukraine does not control the air. It is hard to mount a strategic offensive if you do not control the air.

6. Russia has not thrown their whole army in to the Ukraine fight yet. An incursion into Russia would result in the rest of the Russian Army being brought to that front.

7. Russia has a sizeable advantage in artillery. While artillery is not traditionally thought of as an anti-armor weapon, with the right type of rounds coming from artillery that is sited in on specific choke points, artillery can acquit itself very well against armor.

8. If Russia is invaded, Russia will certainly use that as justification for chemical warfare against advancing Ukraine units. And perhaps tactical nukes. Also, chemical warfare could be brought to bear on Kyiv and other cities via aircraft or missiles, so it would not be just the front lines that are affected.

9. The Ukraine Army probably is not large enough to protect its country and also occupy any seized Russian Territory.

10. Ukraine has been asking for more offensive weapons including tanks and planes, but so far the US and NATO have not agreed to any of those types of equipment going to Ukraine.

One observation - maybe right, maybe wrong - take it for what it is worth. But it seems the US and NATO are not 100% behind a Russian complete defeat.

The West did nothing when Russia gobbled up the Crimean Peninsula (and Georgia).

Early in the thread I surmised that one outcome could be a divided country.

Given the lack of full commitment for offensive weapons, it is looking more and more like the Western Countries are going to try a negotiated settlement where there is a partitioned country, just like South Korea and North Korea. They will be able to force that by telling Ukraine they will cut off aid if they don't take the deal.

Unfotunately, this war could go on for months and also go on into 2023.

 

  • Member since
    November 2021
  • 211 posts
Posted by JayBee on Sunday, April 10, 2022 8:33 PM
  • Member since
    January 2014
  • 8,221 posts
Posted by Euclid on Sunday, April 10, 2022 6:43 PM

Murphy Siding
That makes zero sense.

Why do you conclude that?

  • Member since
    May 2005
  • From: S.E. South Dakota
  • 13,569 posts
Posted by Murphy Siding on Sunday, April 10, 2022 6:22 PM

Euclid

 

 
Murphy Siding

I think the Ukraine invading Russia and heading towards Moscow is just a short step away from tilting at windmills. If anything, wouldn't the Ukraine want to start by taking back the Crimea that Russia had seized previously?

 

 

 

Generally, as far as reasons for Ukraine to go into Russia, the point would be to inflict more pain on Russia than they are receiving from Ukraine defense when Russia invades Ukraine.  Both defense and offense play a part in defeating an enemy.  Ukrain started out seemingly overmatched by Russia, so it was natural to concentrate on defense.   But Ukraine's determination plus more weapons is proving that Ukraine is capable of also going on the offense.  

 

That makes zero sense.

Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.

  • Member since
    May 2003
  • From: US
  • 25,292 posts
Posted by BaltACD on Sunday, April 10, 2022 5:40 PM

The old saying - Don't be the one to start a fight, be the one that FINISHES IT.

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

  • Member since
    January 2014
  • 8,221 posts
Posted by Euclid on Sunday, April 10, 2022 4:59 PM

Murphy Siding

I think the Ukraine invading Russia and heading towards Moscow is just a short step away from tilting at windmills. If anything, wouldn't the Ukraine want to start by taking back the Crimea that Russia had seized previously?

 

Generally, as far as reasons for Ukraine to go into Russia, the point would be to inflict more pain on Russia than they are receiving from Ukraine defense when Russia invades Ukraine.  Both defense and offense play a part in defeating an enemy.  Ukrain started out seemingly overmatched by Russia, so it was natural to concentrate on defense.   But Ukraine's determination plus more weapons is proving that Ukraine is capable of also going on the offense.  

  • Member since
    January 2014
  • 8,221 posts
Posted by Euclid on Sunday, April 10, 2022 4:48 PM

Overmod

 

 
Euclid
 
Another scary item is the Ukrainian Army fighting East.    There is no real geographical obstacle between the Eastern Ukrainian border and Moscow.   If they break through the Russian lines will they stop at the border?   I wonder if they have given assurances to the West in that regard.......or not.

Why do you refer to that as a scary item?

 

Putin, and some of his apparent advisors, have made it clear from nearly the outset that they view 'donations' of weapons by NATO or NATO countries to be tantamount to acts of war, they reserved to themselves the right to interdict such donated weapons before they could reach Ukraine, and they at least threatened strategic-level retaliation should there be "problems" with such strikes.

 

Active invasion of Russia by Ukrainian forces, especially enabled by weapons like S-300s donated from NATO countries, is scary to me on that basis alone.

 

Yes, I too find it scary.  The whole thing is scary because there is a good chance we will be drawn into a war with Russia. I only asked the question as to why CMStP&P felt Ukraine invading Russia was scary to find out if he meant there was something that prevented them from doing so.  He did reply that we may have restrictions on how Ukraine uses the weapons we send them.  I can see that being possible.
 
But also, when Ukraine went into Russia a couple weeks ago to attack that fuel depot, I found it interesting how CNN covered that.  They did not exactly seem to want to say it, but their comments clearly meant that they disapproved of Ukraine’s action inside of Russia.  They sounded like they felt it was a reckless escalation of the conflict that threatened NATO/U.S.  They acted like it was also unfair to Russia because it broke some kind of rule that required Ukraine to only fight defensively like NATO is required to do under their Article 5.  But again, they did not really explain their objections.
 
 
  • Member since
    May 2005
  • From: S.E. South Dakota
  • 13,569 posts
Posted by Murphy Siding on Sunday, April 10, 2022 3:52 PM

I think the Ukraine invading Russia and heading towards Moscow is just a short step away from tilting at windmills. If anything, wouldn't the Ukraine want to start by taking back the Crimea that Russia had seized previously?

Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.

  • Member since
    July 2016
  • 2,631 posts
Posted by Backshop on Sunday, April 10, 2022 3:49 PM

Overmod

Putin, and some of his apparent advisors, have made it clear from nearly the outset that they view 'donations' of weapons by NATO or NATO countries to be tantamount to acts of war, they reserved to themselves the right to interdict such donated weapons before they could reach Ukraine, and they at least threatened strategic-level retaliation should there be "problems" with such strikes. 

What Russia "threatens" and what they do, are two different things.  No way would Russia attack any NATO countries to destroy any weapons provided to Ukraine.  They know that they couldn't handle the retribution.

Join our Community!

Our community is FREE to join. To participate you must either login or register for an account.

Search the Community

Newsletter Sign-Up

By signing up you may also receive occasional reader surveys and special offers from Trains magazine.Please view our privacy policy