NorthBrit I believe once they have captured Dombas Russia will seek peace with Ukraine. David
I believe once they have captured Dombas Russia will seek peace with Ukraine.
David
Now that Russia has destroyed parts of North Ukraine their attention is to be the Donbas Region where a large percentage of people are 'Russian'.
Meanwhile Russia has been attacking Moldovan shipping. The area in Moldova called Transnistra already has Russian soldiers stationed there. There are 'proposals in Transnistra for joining the Russian Federation'. The Moldovan Government has repeatedly asked Russia to withdraw their troops. It has to be remembered that Moldova is a neutral country.
Russia has warned both Sweden and Finland not to join NATO. Since Russia's attack on Ukraine both countries are looking at their own safety against Russian aggression. Joining NATO would be one way.
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York1 John
charlie hebdo That situation does not exist in the same manner with Putin.
I tend to agree. Putin may be the face of the Russion effort, but I would opine that there are a lot of frustrated former Soviets behind him.
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Backshop Euclid My point is that I have expected this war to be portrayed very up close and personal. It will strongly market the idea that we simply must fight to save Ukraine. The advocates for doing just that are probably about 75% of the “West” already. The pressure to end the carnage will become unstoppable, and NATO will simply cave out of overpowering sympathy and a big heart. They will do the “right thing" to save Ukraine, and the result will take the world into nuclear war. That was my point. I disagree. Things will just stay as a proxy war. NATO would never be unanimous in taking on a new mission. While you hear about the US, UK,France and the ex-Warsaw Pact countries wanting to do more, Italy, Spain, Turkey, etc., have been very quiet.
Euclid My point is that I have expected this war to be portrayed very up close and personal. It will strongly market the idea that we simply must fight to save Ukraine. The advocates for doing just that are probably about 75% of the “West” already. The pressure to end the carnage will become unstoppable, and NATO will simply cave out of overpowering sympathy and a big heart. They will do the “right thing" to save Ukraine, and the result will take the world into nuclear war. That was my point.
I disagree. Things will just stay as a proxy war. NATO would never be unanimous in taking on a new mission. While you hear about the US, UK,France and the ex-Warsaw Pact countries wanting to do more, Italy, Spain, Turkey, etc., have been very quiet.
Most likely that is what this will remain, IMO. Fighting in the East, stalemate and a negotiated settlement.
CMStPnP Euclid This will be identical to the premise that we should have stopped Hitler on the same moral imperative. I think you mean stopped the Nazi's. Because they probably could have shot Hitler and Goring or Himmler would have taken over. Hindsight is also 20-20. We have no clue what else is going on in Russia or what atrocities are happening across that country to maintain Putins power and we won't have an idea until after Putin is gone likely. It was the same with the Nazi's for the most part.
Euclid This will be identical to the premise that we should have stopped Hitler on the same moral imperative.
I think you mean stopped the Nazi's. Because they probably could have shot Hitler and Goring or Himmler would have taken over.
Hindsight is also 20-20. We have no clue what else is going on in Russia or what atrocities are happening across that country to maintain Putins power and we won't have an idea until after Putin is gone likely. It was the same with the Nazi's for the most part.
It's hardly a foregone conclusion or widely accepted by historians that there would have been continuity if Hitler had been removed. Obviously the various groups behind the 20 July plot would not agree with your assumption.
In the Third Reich, all military and other personnel swore an oath to Hitler, which coupled with his charismatic popularity made disobedience very difficult unless he were removed. That situation does not exist in the same manner with Putin.
charlie hebdo kgbw49:. The idea of Ukraine invading Russian territory seems like a silly fantasy. Your conclusions on the endgame seem spot on.
kgbw49:.
The idea of Ukraine invading Russian territory seems like a silly fantasy. Your conclusions on the endgame seem spot on.
CMStPnP BaltACD BaltACD wrote the following post 2 hours ago: One persons view points on Russia going into the future - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwPMtmuuVNw China is in even worse shape in regards to depopulation. China is so bad in that area I cannot follow how they will ever overtake us economically. That seems like someones personal pipe dream. The date for the Chinese Economy to grow larger than the United States......seems to keep sliding backwards and backwards in time. Long ago the date was in 2020 sometime. Personally I don't think it will ever happen that China will overtake us.
BaltACD BaltACD wrote the following post 2 hours ago: One persons view points on Russia going into the future - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwPMtmuuVNw
China is in even worse shape in regards to depopulation. China is so bad in that area I cannot follow how they will ever overtake us economically. That seems like someones personal pipe dream. The date for the Chinese Economy to grow larger than the United States......seems to keep sliding backwards and backwards in time. Long ago the date was in 2020 sometime.
Personally I don't think it will ever happen that China will overtake us.
China's present leadership is trying to reign in what has been expansionist economic policy and is going to prevent China being the worlds largest economic power.
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Russian railways in default on loan.
Credit derivatives committee says failure to pay has occurred on Russian Railways (msn.com)
EuclidThis will be identical to the premise that we should have stopped Hitler on the same moral imperative.
Overmod Yes, but... look at what he says starting at about 2:00. How you see NATO adopting 'collective offense' produces that result, and no other.
Yes, but...
look at what he says starting at about 2:00. How you see NATO adopting 'collective offense' produces that result, and no other.
kgbw49One observation - maybe right, maybe wrong - take it for what it is worth. But it seems the US and NATO are not 100% behind a Russian complete defeat.
I think your misreading that. I think they are following the old Gen. Colin Powell saying that if you break it...........you fix it. So militariliy via conquest they don't want to break Russia due to the tremendous costs of administering and running that country (look at what the cost was in Iraq a much smaller model where we got looped into even paying to upgrade their old and outdated infrastructure which had zero to do with the war) but Economically with sanctions...........no problems there on taking Russia to the cleaners.
Former PM Gordon Brown of UK is on YouTube in an interview. He said we can no longer do business with Putin at all. He has to leave power and he sees some kind of negotiated settlement at the end of all this where Putin leaves power and stands trial as do some of his buddies and order takers. I guess time will tell there but if Brown is saying that publicy, Putin has to have heard similar by now and so he must know by now there is no scenario he remains in power except where he takes on NATO and defeats or splits it.
BaltACDBaltACD wrote the following post 2 hours ago: One persons view points on Russia going into the future - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwPMtmuuVNw
One persons view points on Russia going into the future -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwPMtmuuVNw
double post.....
So this Ukrainian fighting position was well thought out due to it's location.
The fighting position uses various urban structures as cover as well as looks like it has some decent camo (until it fires a round which.....smoke from the round gives away the fighting position) Notice where the tank is and it is using the house next to it as cover. The Russians finally spot it and try to fire back but the house is in the way and blocks the shot. Note though that at first the Russians have no clue where the tank is or if it is even there still and just sweep the area with suppressive fire as a precaution in the hope of suppressing the tank or anyone else out there. The Ukrainian tank also looks like it is dug in as well using the ground as protection for part of it's hull and making it harder to hit with a round.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S27kw7XVvSA
A ceasefire or a peace isn't guaranteed to last, Russia lied when it seized Crimea and the Dombass. Russia could very easily just wait after a so called "peace" for the Western coallition to weaken after a year or two and use the time to reorganize. Certainly Russia will not discuss a ceasefire until they can no longer seize more ground from Ukraine.
A few factors to consider for the idea of Ukraine invading Russia:
1. Current Ukraine supply lines from the west are not secure and are being sporadically interdicted by the Russians. That is likely to continue and increase over time as the war drags on.
2. Advancing into Russia would extend those fragile supply lines.
3. Ukraine lacks numbers in offensive weapons such as tanks and airplanes. Strategic offensives use up fuel at an increased rate compared to defensive positions.
4. Open country in Russia around Kursk (site of the largest tank battle in history in WWII) would make Ukraine armor easier targets for Russian armor. Kursk is north of Kharkiv, sort of "on the road to Moscow".
5. Ukraine does not control the air. It is hard to mount a strategic offensive if you do not control the air.
6. Russia has not thrown their whole army in to the Ukraine fight yet. An incursion into Russia would result in the rest of the Russian Army being brought to that front.
7. Russia has a sizeable advantage in artillery. While artillery is not traditionally thought of as an anti-armor weapon, with the right type of rounds coming from artillery that is sited in on specific choke points, artillery can acquit itself very well against armor.
8. If Russia is invaded, Russia will certainly use that as justification for chemical warfare against advancing Ukraine units. And perhaps tactical nukes. Also, chemical warfare could be brought to bear on Kyiv and other cities via aircraft or missiles, so it would not be just the front lines that are affected.
9. The Ukraine Army probably is not large enough to protect its country and also occupy any seized Russian Territory.
10. Ukraine has been asking for more offensive weapons including tanks and planes, but so far the US and NATO have not agreed to any of those types of equipment going to Ukraine.
One observation - maybe right, maybe wrong - take it for what it is worth. But it seems the US and NATO are not 100% behind a Russian complete defeat.
The West did nothing when Russia gobbled up the Crimean Peninsula (and Georgia).
Early in the thread I surmised that one outcome could be a divided country.
Given the lack of full commitment for offensive weapons, it is looking more and more like the Western Countries are going to try a negotiated settlement where there is a partitioned country, just like South Korea and North Korea. They will be able to force that by telling Ukraine they will cut off aid if they don't take the deal.
Unfotunately, this war could go on for months and also go on into 2023.
Railway map of Ukraine and Moldova
Murphy SidingThat makes zero sense.
Why do you conclude that?
Euclid Murphy Siding I think the Ukraine invading Russia and heading towards Moscow is just a short step away from tilting at windmills. If anything, wouldn't the Ukraine want to start by taking back the Crimea that Russia had seized previously? Generally, as far as reasons for Ukraine to go into Russia, the point would be to inflict more pain on Russia than they are receiving from Ukraine defense when Russia invades Ukraine. Both defense and offense play a part in defeating an enemy. Ukrain started out seemingly overmatched by Russia, so it was natural to concentrate on defense. But Ukraine's determination plus more weapons is proving that Ukraine is capable of also going on the offense.
Murphy Siding I think the Ukraine invading Russia and heading towards Moscow is just a short step away from tilting at windmills. If anything, wouldn't the Ukraine want to start by taking back the Crimea that Russia had seized previously?
I think the Ukraine invading Russia and heading towards Moscow is just a short step away from tilting at windmills. If anything, wouldn't the Ukraine want to start by taking back the Crimea that Russia had seized previously?
Generally, as far as reasons for Ukraine to go into Russia, the point would be to inflict more pain on Russia than they are receiving from Ukraine defense when Russia invades Ukraine. Both defense and offense play a part in defeating an enemy. Ukrain started out seemingly overmatched by Russia, so it was natural to concentrate on defense. But Ukraine's determination plus more weapons is proving that Ukraine is capable of also going on the offense.
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The old saying - Don't be the one to start a fight, be the one that FINISHES IT.
Overmod Euclid Another scary item is the Ukrainian Army fighting East. There is no real geographical obstacle between the Eastern Ukrainian border and Moscow. If they break through the Russian lines will they stop at the border? I wonder if they have given assurances to the West in that regard.......or not. Why do you refer to that as a scary item? Putin, and some of his apparent advisors, have made it clear from nearly the outset that they view 'donations' of weapons by NATO or NATO countries to be tantamount to acts of war, they reserved to themselves the right to interdict such donated weapons before they could reach Ukraine, and they at least threatened strategic-level retaliation should there be "problems" with such strikes. Active invasion of Russia by Ukrainian forces, especially enabled by weapons like S-300s donated from NATO countries, is scary to me on that basis alone.
Euclid Another scary item is the Ukrainian Army fighting East. There is no real geographical obstacle between the Eastern Ukrainian border and Moscow. If they break through the Russian lines will they stop at the border? I wonder if they have given assurances to the West in that regard.......or not. Why do you refer to that as a scary item?
Another scary item is the Ukrainian Army fighting East. There is no real geographical obstacle between the Eastern Ukrainian border and Moscow. If they break through the Russian lines will they stop at the border? I wonder if they have given assurances to the West in that regard.......or not.
Why do you refer to that as a scary item?
Putin, and some of his apparent advisors, have made it clear from nearly the outset that they view 'donations' of weapons by NATO or NATO countries to be tantamount to acts of war, they reserved to themselves the right to interdict such donated weapons before they could reach Ukraine, and they at least threatened strategic-level retaliation should there be "problems" with such strikes.
Active invasion of Russia by Ukrainian forces, especially enabled by weapons like S-300s donated from NATO countries, is scary to me on that basis alone.
Overmod Putin, and some of his apparent advisors, have made it clear from nearly the outset that they view 'donations' of weapons by NATO or NATO countries to be tantamount to acts of war, they reserved to themselves the right to interdict such donated weapons before they could reach Ukraine, and they at least threatened strategic-level retaliation should there be "problems" with such strikes.
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