The designated (off-topic) Ukraine war thread

[Overmod]

Euclid

 

Another scary item is the Ukrainian Army fighting East.    There is no real geographical obstacle between the Eastern Ukrainian border and Moscow.   If they break through the Russian lines will they stop at the border?   I wonder if they have given assurances to the West in that regard.......or not.

Why do you refer to that as a scary item?

Putin, and some of his apparent advisors, have made it clear from nearly the outset that they view 'donations' of weapons by NATO or NATO countries to be tantamount to acts of war, they reserved to themselves the right to interdict such donated weapons before they could reach Ukraine, and they at least threatened strategic-level retaliation should there be "problems" with such strikes.

Active invasion of Russia by Ukrainian forces, especially enabled by weapons like S-300s donated from NATO countries, is scary to me on that basis alone.

[CMStPnP]

Euclid

I understand, but if Ukraine wants to risk the consequences of invading Russia, it is their call.  So, if Ukraine is willing to do it, why do you say it would be scary?    You seem to be suggesting that it would be wrong for Ukraine to act offensively in addition to their effort at defense.  Aren’t both part of war?    Just because NATO is limited to only defense, why should Ukraine likewise limit themselves?   Russia is using both offence and defense.  Why shouldn’t Ukraine to the same?

Usually, we do not just give weapons away for use without restriction.   We have restrictions on their use and distribution, sometimes.  Though I do not know if that was a restriction for Ukraine.    I would tend to think we still had restrictions, even for Ukraine.    We'll see how it unfolds.    If we do have restrictions on their use and Ukraine breaks those terms, not going to reflect positively on Ukraine and could even impact ongoing support for Ukraine.

[Murphy Siding]

charlie hebdo

Euclid has cited and linked several persons who are or have been involved in leadership positions with NATO or a policy group. If that doesn't make them more expert with this situation, what does?

You have not been linking to any sources. You attempt to disqualify a former (recent) NATO deputy andUK General because he wrote a book several years ago. So to you are writing  books a disqualification for being considered to have a degree of expertise on that subject?

 

The NATO experts should know what they're talking about, but would be giving their opinions with a slant towards their way of thinking-no? Once you mention policy group, well, right or wrong,there you're talking about a group that was formed to slant things their way.

Either way,those guys would know a lot more about the subject than any of us. Whether they are giving us the straight dope or not cannot be confirmed.

[charlie hebdo]

Euclid has cited and linked several persons who are or have been involved in leadership positions with NATO or a policy group. If that doesn't make them more expert with this situation, what does?

You have not been linking to any sources. You attempt to disqualify a former (recent) NATO deputy andUK General because he wrote a book several years ago. So for you is writing  books a disqualification for being considered to have a degree of expertise on that subject?

[Euclid]

CMStPnP

 

 

 

Euclid

Why do you refer to that as a scary item?

 

 

Well, it depends on what military units are between Moscow and Ukraine's border but if they have the capability to approach Moscow by land,   Moscow would do everything it's power to stop an invasion of it's capital.    We'll have to wait and see.    The S300 air defense system is portable and can be act as an umbrella and move with advancing troops.

 

I understand, but if Ukraine wants to risk the consequences of invading Russia, it is their call.  So, if Ukraine is willing to do it, why do you say it would be scary? 

 

You seem to be suggesting that it would be wrong for Ukraine to act offensively in addition to their effort at defense.  Aren’t both part of war? 

 

Just because NATO is limited to only defense, why should Ukraine likewise limit themselves?

 

Russia is using both offence and defense.  Why shouldn’t Ukraine to the same?

[CMStPnP]

Euclid

Why do you refer to that as a scary item?

Well, it depends on what military units are between Moscow and Ukraine's border but if they have the capability to approach Moscow by land,   Moscow would do everything it's power to stop an invasion of it's capital.    We'll have to wait and see.    The S300 air defense system is portable and can be act as an umbrella and move with advancing troops.

[charlie hebdo]

CMStPnP

Another scary item is the Ukrainian Army fighting East.    There is no real geographical obstacle between the Eastern Ukrainian border and Moscow.   If they break through the Russian lines will they stop at the border?   I wonder if they have given assurances to the West in that regard.......or not.

Do you seriously think that is likely to occur? I realize this is your speculation so no sourcing is necessary but one wonders where you came up with such a notion.

Sam1 is not here, of course. You attacked a person unable to defend his many opinions on Amtrak finances in a rather snide way. Now you say he was not an expert. My contention is that he had years of experience in the world of corporate accounting and finance at a high level. Does anyone else on here have anything close to that?   Do you?  He always said that without access to all the Amtrak records, no one including himself could accurately determine how Amtrak apportioned overhead costs. He was not some bookkeeper or guy using QuikBooks. In other words, in that field, by training and experience, he was a professional. 

You work in IT apparently and I would consider you knowledgeable, i.e., an expert. Although I have been an end user of computers and software for 40 years, I would never suggest I am an expert in IT/IS. 

 

 

 

 

[Euclid]

CMStPnP

Another scary item is the Ukrainian Army fighting East.    There is no real geographical obstacle between the Eastern Ukrainian border and Moscow.   If they break through the Russian lines will they stop at the border?   I wonder if they have given assurances to the West in that regard.......or not.

Why do you refer to that as a scary item?

[BaltACD]

CMStPnP

...

Another scary item is the Ukrainian Army fighting East.    There is no real geographical obstacle between the Eastern Ukrainian border and Moscow.   If they break through the Russian lines will they stop at the border?   I wonder if they have given assurances to the West in that regard.......or not.

If they would - it would only prove how inept Putin's Russian military is.

[blue streak 1]

Has anyone been able to construct a railway map of Ukraine showing locations that are severed?  It would be interesting to see how those lines are surviving.  Also the connections to other countries.

[CMStPnP]

BaltACD

Wasn't 'Impressment' one the the 'fighting points' between the USA and Britain during the War of 1812 - where the Brits were capturing US merchant ships and 'impressing' those sailors into the British Fleet. I believe Hitler impressed civilians off the street into the defense of Berlin.

I think your right but I am not a Naval Historian I believe it was partly due to the British stopping our ships to search or interrogate and then leaving with a good portion of said crew as new British Naval Recruits. 

Some of the stories from the video sound bizarre.   One guy said he found himself in Russian territory (my take is he got lost near a border or something) and then the next thing he knew he was in the Russian Army in that Armored Personnell Carrier.     

There are whole entire Russian Army units refusing to mobilize saying the orders are illegal.   There was another youtube video on an elite Airborne unit in the far East of Russia that refused to mobilize.    No idea how they are handling that but I hope they are not using press gangs to fill the gaps.

I am starting to wonder if Putin followed the proper procedure to declare war.   He first did not call it a war.   Additionally he got this "Security Council" to second his decision.    Which I never heard of that Security Council until this whole Ukraine thing came up.    What happened to the Russian legislature and a formal declaration of war?    Beats me what their official process is though.

Another scary item is the Ukrainian Army fighting East.    There is no real geographical obstacle between the Eastern Ukrainian border and Moscow.   If they break through the Russian lines will they stop at the border?   I wonder if they have given assurances to the West in that regard.......or not.

[BaltACD]

CMStPnP

I am not sure I am interpreting the audio correctly but.....    These men appear to claim they are not even in the Armed Forces but were just plucked off the street in Russia and given uniforms and rifles and put into Eastern Ukraine..........so in military terms.....I think they call that recruitment by a "press gang".    It is an old technique from the 1800's or before, surprised it is still used.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kV9DLy2NI_8

Wasn't 'Impressment' one the the 'fighting points' between the USA and Britain during the War of 1812 - where the Brits were capturing US merchant ships and 'impressing' those sailors into the British Fleet.

I believe Hitler impressed civilians off the street into the defense of Berlin.

[CMStPnP]

I am not sure I am interpreting the audio correctly but.....    These men appear to claim they are not even in the Armed Forces but were just plucked off the street in Russia and given uniforms and rifles and put into Eastern Ukraine..........so in military terms.....I think they call that recruitment by a "press gang".    It is an old technique from the 1800's or before, surprised it is still used.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kV9DLy2NI_8

 

[CMStPnP]

Overmod

It is perfectly OK to say '...that statement doesn't pass my smell test' (or similar opinion comment) just as it was to say that in your opinion accountants sometimes manipulate semantics.  It's always ethically better to back up opinions with some source material or even references, but if you say it's your opinion, no one should do other than state why their opinion is contrary... and of course back that up with facts, references, etc. if they intend readers to trust, or accept, their opinion 'more

Sorry the quote feature has issues for me, not sure if it is the website or the laptop.

No your missing the point on Accountants.    Accounting is a general field roughly analogous to a general practicioner of medicine.    Would I take my pet Donkey to a GP for advice?    No I would not.   Hence conveying someone as an "expert" because they have knowledge in a general area is overkill in my view.    Additionally, if we are talking military there is usually a designation of SME in an area in addition to rank or title (wasn't LTC Vindiman an SME?   Wasn't it so designated?).    The argument is moot though for an informal discussion forum which is opinion based by nature.    As I stated many times over and over, this is not an academic forum for peer review.

[CMStPnP]

Overmod

I have not yet seen where you comment in detail where you disagree with the 'source', with reasons why.

Have you looked?

From 1 post above, though I made the comment several times across several posts in various ways.    But here it is again.

I believe NATO and their historical timeline.    This guy is not only pushing a book but selling himself as an "I told you so" victim.   Which disqualifies himself as being objective, in my view.    Further he is giving his own personal opinion, it is not official nor is it expert. 

On top of all that you misinterpreted what he is saying.   He is not saying Russia is in Ukraine because of NATO he is saying it will become a war with NATO.....look at his book which claims the same thing. 

[Overmod]

CMStPnP

Agree and you have to read the exchange in entirety not just read the last post and you would see I made that point throughout as well among other valid points.

I have not yet seen where you comment in detail where you disagree with the 'source', with reasons why.

It is perfectly OK to say '...that statement doesn't pass my smell test' (or similar opinion comment) just as it was to say that in your opinion accountants sometimes manipulate semantics.  It's always ethically better to back up opinions with some source material or even references, but if you say it's your opinion, no one should do other than state why their opinion is contrary... and of course back that up with facts, references, etc. if they intend readers to trust, or accept, their opinion 'more'.

[CMStPnP]

Overmod

No, what we have is a 'disagreement' on what, supposedly, was in question about his opinion, or what your reasons (or knowledge) to question that opinion might be. Has nothing to do with 'credentials', but it does have to do with knowledge or experience or reading other sources.

Agree and you have to read the exchange in entirety not just read the last post and you would see I made that point throughout as well among other valid points.

 

 

[Overmod]

Ron, if you are not familiar with 'autocatalytic war' you should read up on it.  Been a 'thing' even since the original cross-pollination of Douhet with Borden in 'There Will Be No Time'.

[Euclid]

How will NATO Respond if Russia

Uses Nukes in Ukraine?

 

 

NOTE: From this point to the link below is from that linked article by Ivo Daalder.

 

"Putin may ramp up his war in Ukraine – here’s how Nato should respond"

 

Ivo Daalder

 

"It is vital Moscow understands that escalation will not be risk-free, and expects a proportionate response"

 

"Ivo Daalder is the president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. He served as US ambassador to Nato between 2009 and 2013"

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/24/putin-war-ukraine-nato-moscow-escalation

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

 

Previously, I posted some hypothetical questions just to find out what the NATO method or doctrine requires as a possible NATO military response if Putin radically escalates the conflict in Ukraine.  On the face of it, I would not expect that NATO would not respond at all because it would not be an attack on NATO. 

 

However, in this video, Ivan Daalder sheds light on this issue by saying that if Russia escalates in by using nuclear or chemical weapons in Ukraine, NATO will respond militarily. 

 

The author lists the hypothetical scenarios that Russia might execute and then states how NATO should/would respond.  He lists these scenarios in order of seriousness from least to most.  In each case, the author first describes the escalatory action by Russia (in red), followed by the NATO response (in blue):

 

Russian escalation:  The [unintended] possibility of a missile hitting NATO territory.

 

NATO response:  Take out the launcher or aircraft that sent the missile.

 

Russian escalation:  Bomb an industrial chemical or biological research facility and blame the resulting damage on Ukraine [I assume this includes cases of untargeted collateral damage]. 

 

NATO response:  Let such an escalation go unanswered. At the very least, it should take out the forces responsible for bombing the facilities with surgical strikes.

 

Russian escalation:  Use industrial chemical agents such as chlorine or ammonia to target civilians.

 

NATO response:  Impose a real no-fly zone to prevent further Russian aerial attacks.  If needed, attack Russian aircraft and air defenses threatening NATO planes.

 

Russian escalation:   Use actual chemical weapons (such as mustard gas or sarin nerve agents), biological agents, or even a nuclear weapon.

 

NATO should come to the direct defense of Ukraine – deploying its air, ground and naval forces to ensure Russia’s defeat and the full restoration of Ukraine’s independence and sovereignty.

 

The author concludes with this comment:

 

“No one wants to start world war three. But Putin should know that if he escalates, Nato’s calculation of risks and rewards will change. Letting Moscow know that Nato would come to Ukraine’s direct defense under these circumstances would not only be legal and legitimate, but necessary to demonstrate to Russia and others that escalation does not pay.”

 

What is unclear to me is whether NATO doctrine actually requires these responses or if the author is simply recommending that NATO tell Russia that NATO will respond as listed.  I assume that the doctrine does not require the listed responses.  However, I must also assume that NATO is free to make these Reponses as their option, and might very well decide to make the responses. 

 

In any case, the author seems to assume total protection from the doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction, as shown by his complete exclusion of any possibility that if Russia escalates, and NATO punishes them, Russia will not escalate further. 

 

This condescending attitude completely denies that while NATO can defeat Russia in conventional warfare, Russia still retains the ability to make NATO/U.S. disappear in one afternoon.

[Overmod]

CMStPnP

I said or implied his opinion was open to question.  So we obviously have a very major disagreement on what constitutes an unbiased expert on a subject matter area.

No, what we have is a 'disagreement' on what, supposedly, was in question about his opinion, or what your reasons (or knowledge) to question that opinion might be.

Has nothing to do with 'credentials', but it does have to do with knowledge or experience or reading other sources.

[kgbw49]

Already have.  Donated several weeks ago. And will continue.

We have an acquaintance who is a legal immigrant from Ukraine. He seeved in the Ukraine Army as a field medic before coming to America. He has gone back to serve, leaving his wife and children here. Of course, he and his wife still have family in Ukraine.

Contact almost any Greek (Eastern) Orthodox Carholic Church in your area and they will almost surely have a fund raiser going as well as collecting any type of clothing and other supplies that a refugee will need.

[charlie hebdo]

greyhounds

Nothing anyone says on this thread is going to make a bit of difference.

 

Meanwhile, millions of Ukrainians have had their lives wrecked, their families torn apart, and their loved ones killed or wounded.

 

Come on!  You’ve got $100.  Donate it and buy some food, bandages, clothing, whatever for these victims of Russian aggression.

 

+1 And thanks, Ken.

Pitch in and donate (or help) whatever you can. Some refugees are starting to show up here.

[greyhounds]

Nothing anyone says on this thread is going to make a bit of difference.

 

Meanwhile, millions of Ukrainians have had their lives wrecked, their families torn apart, and their loved ones killed or wounded.

 

Come on!  You’ve got $100.  Donate it and buy some food, bandages, clothing, whatever for these victims of Russian aggression.

[kgbw49]

Ukraine is getting an S-300 antiaircraft system from Slovakia. About time. Maybe the dam will break and other countries will join in.

Here is a video of the system being loaded on - wait for it - a train - for shipment.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNEStBdM7EI

The US is providing Slovakia a Patriot battery as replacement.

[Electroliner 1935]

You guys are back to the old fight. He said, No, HE said. Get back on track before this gets "locked" by the monitor, PLEASE

[CMStPnP]

charlie hebdo

I'm not sure you have any relevant background in history or else you would not have made your comment about experts. Generally speaking an expert is someone by training and relevant experience who is knowledgeable about a particular area or discipline. Actual experts are not self-proclaimed ones. I am not an expert on this and do not pretend to be one. I don't know if Shirreff is right or not. However the fact that he has written books does not disqualify him as knowledgeable about NATO, Russia and Ukraine.   

Note, I did not say he was not knowledgeable, you came up with that all on your own.    I said or implied his opinion was open to question.     So we obviously have a very major disagreement on what constitutes an unbiased expert on a subject matter area.   Regardless, that point is irrelevant to this forum as well.    As it is an informal discussion forum not an academic peer review forum.

BTW, "experts" are wrong too, so don't get fixated on that term......please.

[charlie hebdo]

I'm not sure you have any relevant background in history or else you would not have made your comment about experts. Generally speaking an expert is someone by training and relevant experience who is knowledgeable about a particular area or discipline. Actual experts are not self-proclaimed ones.

I am not an expert on this and do not pretend to be one. I don't know if Shirreff is right or not. However the fact that he has written books does not disqualify him as knowledgeable about NATO, Russia and Ukraine. 

 

 

[CMStPnP]

charlie hebdo

General Shirreff's relevant background certainly qualifies him as an expert.

That is your opinion, it is not stated nor does he state he is an expert.   You do realize the difference?    Not only that he is hawking a book with his point of view.   Last I don't believe he stated anywhere the war in Ukraine was because of NATO.   If he did I missed it or he is contrary to official NATO position.   Which I will take a command's opinion over that of a deputy commander that is disgruntled.

I never said I was an "expert" I am having a discussion of opinion.   My opinion differs from Euclid and I am explaining why before you took us on this tangent.

[CMStPnP]

charlie hebdo

Your post shows you are unable to support your positions. All you have is blustering and ad hominem attacks on all who challenge your assertions.

It's called a discussion.   I thought you were making an argument before people should be thick skinned.....what happened to that position?    Apparently you can't get over this fixation on  links or that you should be the guy that attempts to enforce their use.   Is this your forum or are you a poster like everyone else?

You'll generally find that if you treat others respectfully they will respond in kind.   You posted that ridiculous post assailing what I said and then now are surprised I refuted it?    What did you expect.     That I would start posting links with every post now?   Please.

[charlie hebdo]

Your post shows you are unable to support your positions. All you have is blustering and ad hominem attacks on all who challenge your assertions.

General Shirreff's relevant background certainly qualifies him as an expert.  Can you say the same about your own?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Shirreff