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CN is winning the bidding war. What happens to CP after CN acquired KCS?

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Friday, May 14, 2021 7:31 AM

Convicted One

Norfolk and Western!

 

Norfolk & Pacific?

Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.

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Posted by Ulrich on Friday, May 14, 2021 7:21 AM

China will buy CP and Elon Musk will move his rocket factory to Moose Jaw, SK.. 

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Posted by Backshop on Friday, May 14, 2021 7:12 AM

Why would CSX give up the former PM?

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Posted by kgbw49 on Friday, May 14, 2021 6:37 AM

The Wall Street Journal has details. CN increased the shares to be received for each share of KCS stock and agreed to pay the $700 million breakup fee to CP.

If CP puts itself on the market, perhaps it could be "Conrailed".

CSX buys everything west of Chicago and north of Toronto and BNSF pays cash for everything east of Chicago including ownership of the former Pere Marquette.

This is like speculation for the NFL draft.

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Posted by Lithonia Operator on Friday, May 14, 2021 3:10 AM

Still in training.


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Posted by LANDON ROWELL on Thursday, May 13, 2021 10:09 PM

If the STB approves a voting trust CN can buy, but not control KCS until merger approval. If the merger is later denied, CN would have to sell KCS, probably at a loss. It seems to me that under the new merger rules, CN will have to agree to a lot of conditions, possibly including line sales, to secure approval. Splitting KCS with CP makes a lot of sense and would go a long way towards addressing competitive concerns.

However, CN seems confident they can get approval and may not be willing to deal. Could we see a repeat of the Santa Fe-Southern Pacific merger attempt? SP was put in a voting trust, and the railroads were so confident of ICC approval, they started painting locos. They also didn’t agree to a lot of conditions to address concerns. They ended up having to sell SP (to Rio Grande) for what they could get.

If this does go through, I would see CP merging with CSX, NS, or UP. BNSF and CP have too many parallel lines from Chicago through Minnesota and North Dakota. Also, CP connects with UP via the old Spokane International. Though is see more competitive issues with CN/KCS than CP/KCS, if the railroads do eventually merger into 2 systems, I don't want KCS with UP, which already dominates the south central region. Therefore maybe it is better to put KCS with CN, which is more likely to end up with BNSF, provided adequate conditions for CP are agreed to.

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Posted by SALfan1 on Thursday, May 13, 2021 8:20 PM

CN may be winning the bidding war, but I have to believe a CN-KCS merger will have a harder time getting past the STB & DOJ's Antitrust Division than a CP-KCS merger would.  I'm not saying it can't happen, but CP and KCS only touch in Kansas City, while CN and KCS at least somewhat overlap north of New Orleans and in Mississippi.  Guess we'll find out.

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Posted by BaltACD on Thursday, May 13, 2021 8:17 PM

I feature that the STB views the CP as a small transaction and the CN as a large one.  With different rules applying to each.

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

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Posted by SteamRoller88 on Thursday, May 13, 2021 8:05 PM

If you truly believe that cp will be gone then no way the STB allows this deal happens. Too many jobs will be lost. That's not pro competition and US/CANADIAN jobs will be gone.

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Posted by Convicted One on Thursday, May 13, 2021 7:55 PM

Norfolk and Western!

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Posted by wasd on Thursday, May 13, 2021 7:46 PM

MidlandMike

Aren't CN and CP Canadian (crown?) corporations?  Won't the Canadian government weigh in?  Do they want to see a CN mired in debt, and CP strugling to stay viable?

CN was privatized in 1995 and CP was never a crown corporation.

I think CP as we know it is now dead. There is now way they will survive alone now. Their corporate indentity not survive a merger with a larger US carrier.

It is sad to see the demise of a Canadian institution like this.

 

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Posted by SteamRoller88 on Thursday, May 13, 2021 7:13 PM

UNION PACIFIC CANADIAN PACIFIC LETS GOOOO

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Posted by MidlandMike on Thursday, May 13, 2021 7:10 PM

Aren't CN and CP Canadian (crown?) corporations?  Won't the Canadian government weigh in?  Do they want to see a CN mired in debt, and CP strugling to stay viable?

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Posted by Backshop on Thursday, May 13, 2021 6:36 PM

So CP will become the new "KCS", a midget amongst giants.  Other than the upper Midwest, they don't have a large US presence.  I don't know if their Canadian lines are a big enough lure for anyone to buy them as they now are.

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Posted by wasd on Thursday, May 13, 2021 6:14 PM

https://twitter.com/TrainsMagazine/status/1392977573928394753?s=19

My source.

CN won. Does anyone want to take bets on who will buy CP? Union Pacific or CSX?

Regardless, this is pretty bad. An anticompetitive merger in the same sense as SPSF, ICG, BN, SCL and Penn Central.

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Posted by Ulrich on Thursday, May 13, 2021 3:48 PM

What are your sources? I haven't seen anything that would suggest that CN has the upper hand. 

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CN is winning the bidding war. What happens to CP after CN acquired KCS?
Posted by wasd on Thursday, May 13, 2021 3:14 PM

Fairly self explainatory title. CN is winning the bidding war for KCS. They are likely to sweeten the deal even further. CN has more letters of support and a CN KCS merger is also very likely to get regulatory approval according to many analyts.

This leaves the question as to what will happen to CP after the merger. CP will be left as effectively a regional railroad, about half the size of the nearest contemporary. This leaves them as a target for an opportunistic US railroad eastern or western. This could then set off the final round of consolidation for class ones.

How far do you think this will go, and what do you think the final continent-spanning megarailroads would look like?

 

 

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