oltmanndSo, will electric, self-driving trucks, or some other combo of new technology kill RRs? Maybe. It depends on if they are wise enough to peer more than 5 years into the future and mak a plan. If you wait for change to come and then react to it, you will be too late. Where is Baldwin now, for example? In this day and age, you have to be the leader of change, or you will be left behind.
I think the answer to this question is yes. The trucking industry is far more competent and nimble. They provide a service that is quicker, more convenient and user friendly. They have the full weight ofthe tech industry behind them and the railroads are a massive underdog with almost no investment or technological development. When rail loses its environmental credentials and the cost gap narrows or disappears, you will have shippers wondering why they are using rail at all.
Remember, as forum member Bruce Gillings has said, if the railroads disappeared tommorow, you would see a 20-30% increase in truck traffic at most. The disparity in freight transported is huge. Railroads have a pitifully small market share and have been waiting for a coupe de grace for decades. The rail industry doesn't have a way to fight back against any of this. They have exhausted most of their opportunities to cut cost and improve efficiency. Rail freight has reached its technological limit.
ttrraaffiicc oltmannd So, will electric, self-driving trucks, or some other combo of new technology kill RRs? Maybe. It depends on if they are wise enough to peer more than 5 years into the future and mak a plan. If you wait for change to come and then react to it, you will be too late. Where is Baldwin now, for example? In this day and age, you have to be the leader of change, or you will be left behind. I think the answer to this question is yes. The trucking industry is far more competent and nimble. They provide a service that is quicker, more convenient and user friendly. They have the full weight ofthe tech industry behind them and the railroads are a massive underdog with almost no investment or technological development. When rail loses its environmental credentials and the cost gap narrows or disappears, you will have shippers wondering why they are using rail at all. Remember, as forum member Bruce Gillings has said, if the railroads disappeared tommorow, you would see a 20-30% increase in truck traffic at most. The disparity in freight transported is huge. Railroads have a pitifully small market share and have been waiting for a coupe de grace for decades. The rail industry doesn't have a way to fight back against any of this. They have exhausted most of their opportunities to cut cost and improve efficiency. Rail freight has reached its technological limit.
oltmannd So, will electric, self-driving trucks, or some other combo of new technology kill RRs? Maybe. It depends on if they are wise enough to peer more than 5 years into the future and mak a plan. If you wait for change to come and then react to it, you will be too late. Where is Baldwin now, for example? In this day and age, you have to be the leader of change, or you will be left behind.
I am going to ask "reference, please."
I have the impression that railroading is biased towards the heavier, bulk commodities which doen't bring in, per ton-mile, anywhere near the revenue trucks do with what they ship.
I have to be convinced, however, if railroads went "poof", that our highways wouldn't be clogged beyond measure with excessive, road-surface busting tonnage taking an inordinate amount of fuel to move.
As to railroads being green or not green, no one cares about this apart from environmental advocates along with passenger-train advocates trying to get environmentalists to support favored projects. Or railroad companies engaged in "feel good" advertising about their industry.
OK, Bing is my friend and it found this link
U.S. Ton-Miles of Freight | Bureau of Transportation Statistics (bts.gov)
It turns out trucks carry more ton miles than trains, but not by much, so an immediate shutdown of the railroad industry would not be some small increase in trucks on the highway.
If GM "killed the electric car", what am I doing standing next to an EV-1, a half a block from the WSOR tracks?
Paul MilenkovicIt turns out trucks carry more ton miles than trains, but not by much, so an immediate shutdown of the railroad industry would not be some small increase in trucks on the highway.
I believe the rule of thumb is three trucks for every bulk rail car. That translates into 300 trucks on I75 from the Toledo docks to Middletown, OH five days a week. And 300 trucks likely returning empty on the same highway. Multiply as necessary.
Larry Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date Come ride the rails with me! There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...
tree68 Paul Milenkovic It turns out trucks carry more ton miles than trains, but not by much, so an immediate shutdown of the railroad industry would not be some small increase in trucks on the highway. I believe the rule of thumb is three trucks for every bulk rail car. That translates into 300 trucks on I75 from the Toledo docks to Middletown, OH five days a week. And 300 trucks likely returning empty on the same highway. Multiply as necessary.
Paul Milenkovic It turns out trucks carry more ton miles than trains, but not by much, so an immediate shutdown of the railroad industry would not be some small increase in trucks on the highway.
Returning empty is railroad industry thinking. The truckers have figures out how to carry something, sometimes anything, sometimes for little money, on the "back haul."
That is one thing that has clobbered railroads. Once trucks have a sizeable fraction of shipping, their back-haul is a substantial fraction of whatever railroads carry of any value, and trucking can way underbid.
Paul MilenkovicReturning empty is railroad industry thinking. The truckers have figures out how to carry something, sometimes anything, sometimes for little money, on the "back haul."
Overmod Paul Milenkovic Returning empty is railroad industry thinking. The truckers have figures out how to carry something, sometimes anything, sometimes for little money, on the "back haul." Keep in mind we're discussing bulk shipment. Not too likely that truck bodies optimized for most bulk shipments will be easily adapted to general backhaul, which is probably ignored by those who think ton-miles are fungible.
Paul Milenkovic Returning empty is railroad industry thinking. The truckers have figures out how to carry something, sometimes anything, sometimes for little money, on the "back haul."
Keep in mind we're discussing bulk shipment. Not too likely that truck bodies optimized for most bulk shipments will be easily adapted to general backhaul, which is probably ignored by those who think ton-miles are fungible.
Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.
So what do you back haul in a bulk commodity track back to the bulk commodity loading point besides air, in most cases. Maybe 1 in 100 can get some form of paying back haul.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
BaltACDSo what do you back haul in a bulk commodity track back to the bulk commodity loading point besides air, in most cases. Maybe 1 in 100 can get some form of paying back haul.
Looking at some of the trains I see on the Deshler cam - coil cars, slab cars, auto racks, to name a few. Those cars are built to handle a specific commodity. Finding a reasonable backhaul for an open coil car will be a challenge.
Besides - many of those cars are in dedicated service. The EXWYEZEE Steel Company may not want to negotiate such an arrangement, and they'll certainly be upset if the railroad usurps their car(s) for something else, even if the railroad owns the car.
Our community is FREE to join. To participate you must either login or register for an account.