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Papers, please.

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Posted by mvlandsw on Saturday, March 21, 2020 9:30 PM

Has it been determined that having the virus confers immunity? I haven't seen anything stated one way or the other.

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Posted by tree68 on Saturday, March 21, 2020 5:13 PM

I'm not sure how many times our local hospitals have gone on "medical diversion" already this year - it's quite a few, and well before SARS-CoV-2 made its appearance.

So far, my county is sitting at exactly one positive, with one person from another area who was here for several days also being positive.  Testing is available for those exhibiting symptoms.  at this point just 30 tests have been given, per this morning's paper.

Meanwhile, NY had over 7,000 confirmed flu cases this past week, down 15% from last week.  Flu season in general is waning.

According to CDC information, the number of new cases of SARS-CoV-2 may already be dropping.  The folks who aren't sick today would have been infected around two weeks ago, before all the panic set in.

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Posted by zugmann on Saturday, March 21, 2020 1:24 PM

tree68
This will pass, regardless of what the government tries to do to stem the tide.  In fact, the current actions may actually prolong the problem.

Isn't that the point, though?  

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

It's been fun.  But it isn't much fun anymore.   Signing off for now. 


  

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Posted by Semper Vaporo on Saturday, March 21, 2020 12:25 AM

tree68
This will pass, regardless of what the government tries to do to stem the tide.  In fact, the current actions may actually prolong the problem.

 

It will probably pass, and, yes, the current actions WILL prolong the problem.  But, if they don't "slow it down" the health care system will be overwhelmed and totally fail, thus lots more will die.  If you look at some of the charts the government is showing there is either a short (time wise) peak or a prolonged curve.  The short peak will kill more than the long curve, but the long curve is MANY MONTHS instead if a few Weeks.  The number of deaths in the few weeks would be many more than the number over the many months.  Thus they are shooting for the long curve.

Will it work?  Won't know until it is over and then it is only a guess as to whether some other course of action would have been better.  Unless you'd like to start over with some other virus and play it some other way, and then you can compare those two courses of action and know which was better, but would that "better" one be better than some other course of action?

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Posted by tree68 on Friday, March 20, 2020 11:04 PM

SALfan
You are absolutely correct, and I agree with you 100%.  HOWEVER, the same mindless hysterics who cleaned out the grocery stores will be screaming for a doctor after the first cough.

Word has been put out by the medical people locally pretty much as Gerald points out.  The ERs are triaging pretty heavily - show up with something you don't need to be there and you'll likely get shown the door.  Several satellite clinics have been closed.

Similarly, our emergency dispatchers are asking some pointed questions.  While they can't refuse to dispatch an ambulance, just having to answer the questions might discourage some who really don't need to go.  Or they can just call a cab.

I've talked to a number of friends who aren't all to sure they haven't already had this virus.  There was a bug going around in the December-January timeframe that was suspiciously similar.

It still really bugs me that so far this flu season there have been some 22,000 deaths from the flu, yet no one has closed down businesses or schools (except those which didn't have enough people to bother opening - that happened to several schools here earlier in the year).  "Social distancing," which should have been a fact of life for those at risk (the same people who are at risk with SARS-CoV-2), but hadn't even been thought of.

This will pass, regardless of what the government tries to do to stem the tide.  In fact, the current actions may actually prolong the problem.

LarryWhistling
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Posted by PJS1 on Friday, March 20, 2020 10:55 PM
The coronavirus is a serious health threat.  It deserves carefully thought out responses. 
 
A universal lockdown is a kneejerk response that does not appear to take into consideration legitimate exceptions.  Nor does it factor in downside consequences. 
 
The authorities in my neck of the woods closed the schools, as well as restaurants, bars, etc.  What they did not seem to realize is doing so meant more people would eat at home.  And use more toilet paper at home.  The impact of their decision on the supply chain, i.e. long lines and empty shelves at the supermarket, did not dawned on them until they read about it in the paper. 

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Posted by SALfan on Friday, March 20, 2020 10:51 PM

GERALD L MCFARLANE JR

 

Correction, they're under equipped to handle all the cases including the ones they don't need to handle, like the 80% of people that will exhibit mild to no symptoms.  If you fall in that 80% category you don't need to do anything, I myself wouldn't bother going to the Dr. with mild symptoms, why waste their time and mine.  By the time I've recovered my body will have made it's anti-bodies and I'll have nothing to worry about a re-occurence.  Let them handle the ones that need it, the elderly and those with underlying medical conditions that make them more susceptible.  I'm actually not even concerned about getting the virus, just like all the spring breakers, I want to get it, just so my body can do it's job.

"Social distancing" is an oxymoron, you can't be social and distance yourself at the same time...it doesn't work, just like shelter-in-place, this isn't some gas leak or chlorine spill, it's a virus, heck it's not even Ebola, MERS, or SARS, each of which are considerably more deadly.

 

You are absolutely correct, and I agree with you 100%.  HOWEVER, the same mindless hysterics who cleaned out the grocery stores will be screaming for a doctor after the first cough.

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Posted by tree68 on Friday, March 20, 2020 10:50 PM

Ironically, it's turning out that one of the early manifestations of SARS-CoV-2 is gastrointestinal problems - a phenomenon that is just now being realized.

Maybe those folks hoarding TP were actually on to something...

LarryWhistling
Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) 
Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you
My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date
Come ride the rails with me!
There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...

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Posted by Paul of Covington on Friday, March 20, 2020 10:12 PM

Electroliner 1935

Speaking of TP, has anyone noticed how the makers have nattowed the rolls. When my home was built 22 years ago, the bathroom TP holder was designed for rolls being 4.5 inches wide. Then I was seeing 4.25 in. Now most are 3.9 or 4.0 in wide. And the toilet paper in the big roll in the restroom at Wal-Mart is 3 inches wide. Enough. Seems like they are soon going to string.

 

   Yeah, I thought so.  I've never measured them, but they do look narrower on the holder.

_____________ 

  "A stranger's just a friend you ain't met yet." --- Dave Gardner

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Posted by Electroliner 1935 on Friday, March 20, 2020 10:05 PM

Speaking of TP, has anyone noticed how the makers have nattowed the rolls. When my home was built 22 years ago, the bathroom TP holder was designed for rolls being 4.5 inches wide. Then I was seeing 4.25 in. Now most are 3.9 or 4.0 in wide. And the toilet paper in the big roll in the restroom at Wal-Mart is 3 inches wide. Enough. Seems like they are soon going to string.

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Posted by MMLDelete on Friday, March 20, 2020 9:53 PM

Well, I hope for your sake that you're exaggerating, at least a little.

Take care of yourself.

I will be seeing a dermatologist about an ugly thing growing on my leg. Sad

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Posted by Semper Vaporo on Friday, March 20, 2020 9:27 PM

Lithonia Operator

{Snip}...

I'm figuring that other than one scheduled doc appt and the grocery, I'm not going anywhere for at least a month. I accept that. It sucks, but that's my own plan.

 

That is pretty much my life for the last 14 years anyway; so no change in lifestyle for me.

Semper Vaporo

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Posted by SD70Dude on Friday, March 20, 2020 9:15 PM

Since this thread's title is about paper, I think this is on-topic:

Post image

Greetings from Alberta

-an Articulate Malcontent

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Posted by MMLDelete on Friday, March 20, 2020 8:33 PM

The stay-at-home orders and social distancing is necessary to flatten the curve of the transmission rate. If the curve continues on its current trajectory, the health care system will be overwhelmed, and the death rate will skyrocket.

Personal freedom is all fine and good. But this is a national emergency, and everyone should do their part. It's great to be young and feeling invincible and partying on the beach during spring break. But when they go home and pass the virus on to Mom, and Mom passes it on to Grandpa ...

Yes, solo fishing and train-watching are harmless; and if you can sneak out, heck yeah, do it. But if you are a cop, are you going to know who's really going to the grocery? Some other guy could be going to a poker game or a pickup basketball game or something else risky. The more people staying home the better. I'm figuring that other than one scheduled doc appt and the grocery, I'm not going anywhere for at least a month. I accept that. It sucks, but that's my own plan.

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Posted by Deggesty on Friday, March 20, 2020 7:53 PM

BaltACD

There is a retirement community near my house.  Today they had a 'Closed to Visitors' sign prominately displayed.

 

Where I live, no vistors are allowed. when I came back from seeing my opthalmologist this afternoon, I had to ask someone inside to let me in, my temperature was taken, and i had to use dsinfectant on my hands.

Johnny

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Posted by GERALD L MCFARLANE JR on Friday, March 20, 2020 7:46 PM

MikeF90
 
Flintlock76
Yes we know some are in danger, yes we have to slow or stop the spread, yes we have to take precautions, but STOP treating us like children!

I assume that you mean the CiC. Saying the situation is under control is an outrageous lie. The virus is here and insulting redirections like about the virus origin need to stop. When testing catches up and reveals the true scope, you skeptics will need to revisit your comments. Our health care professionals are way under equipped to deal with new cases - stay well away from hospitals!

 

~SNIP!~

Correction, they're under equipped to handle all the cases including the ones they don't need to handle, like the 80% of people that will exhibit mild to no symptoms.  If you fall in that 80% category you don't need to do anything, I myself wouldn't bother going to the Dr. with mild symptoms, why waste their time and mine.  By the time I've recovered my body will have made it's anti-bodies and I'll have nothing to worry about a re-occurence.  Let them handle the ones that need it, the elderly and those with underlying medical conditions that make them more susceptible.  I'm actually not even concerned about getting the virus, just like all the spring breakers, I want to get it, just so my body can do it's job.

"Social distancing" is an oxymoron, you can't be social and distance yourself at the same time...it doesn't work, just like shelter-in-place, this isn't some gas leak or chlorine spill, it's a virus, heck it's not even Ebola, MERS, or SARS, each of which are considerably more deadly.

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Posted by greyhounds on Friday, March 20, 2020 6:59 PM

MikeF90
BTW our shelter-in-place measures show how extremely fragile our supply chains are; toilet paper production hasn't been redirected from inactive businesses to retail outlets yet.

Horse Feathers!  Our supply chains (plural) aren't fragile at all.  They're stong, robust and reslient.   Unless the various governments mess them up by doing such things as shutting down rest stops for truckers.

You have absolutely no substantiation that TP manufacturers are continuing to ship toilet paper to shut down businesses.  You've just made that up.  And I'm tired of people doing that.  One of the first things a business that is forced to shut down will do is preserve cash.  That means they don't order what they don't need and at least try to cancel existing orders for what they don't need.  

To maintain that TP manufacturers are mindlessly shipping product to businesses that don't want or need it while Walmart, Kroger, et. al. are screaming for the stuff is absurd.

The "Shortage" is due to hoarding by consumers.  That's it.  This "Shortage" could be mitigated if the retail outlets would significantly increase the price.  That would reduce hoarding.  However, the outlets would be vilified for "Gouging" (whatever that is).  So they prefer bare shelves to being vilified.

BTW, I was able to buy four rolls today at a gas station convenience store.  $1.99/roll, but I got some.  They had more, but I declined to hoard.

"By many measures, the U.S. freight rail system is the safest, most efficient and cost effective in the world." - Federal Railroad Administration, October, 2009. I'm just your average, everyday, uncivilized howling "anti-government" critic of mass government expenditures for "High Speed Rail" in the US. And I'm gosh darn proud of that.
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Posted by Flintlock76 on Friday, March 20, 2020 6:31 PM

I won't say who I mean Mike, people can draw their own conclusions. 

What I will say is the lockdowns, business closings, "shelter-in-place," banning of gatherings, and other things are going to have to stop before we have an economic collapse and / or a societal breakdown.  Maybe the virus crisis will be over by the time we get to that point but if it isn't, there's going to have to be some hard choices made about acceptable levels of personal risk, some by government, and some by individuals.

As far as saving lives, we all want to save lives, that's a given.  Who knows how many lives we could save if we set a national speed limit of 25mph?  Would all the disruption that would cause be worth it?  I leave it to you all to answer that. 

Risk is inherant in life.  We are all at risk from the moment we're born until the moment we die, from something, either a car crash or plain old age.  So we have a choice, we can hide from death, but that can also mean hiding from life itself.  

Ah, enough.  Next thing you know the Forum's going to be "All coronavirus, all the time!"  What do I know anyway?

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Posted by MikeF90 on Friday, March 20, 2020 5:23 PM

Flintlock76
Yes we know some are in danger, yes we have to slow or stop the spread, yes we have to take precautions, but STOP treating us like children!

I assume that you mean the CiC. Saying the situation is under control is an outrageous lie. The virus is here and insulting redirections like about the virus origin need to stop. When testing catches up and reveals the true scope, you skeptics will need to revisit your comments. Our health care professionals are way under equipped to deal with new cases - stay well away from hospitals!

Flintlock76
And can the 'All coronavirus all the time' news reporting! You're not helping matters, you're inciting panic! Especially in those prone to panic anyway!"

Agree. Most news video is like a VCR that cannot be replayed. Gov't health related web sites and a few tech oriented ones like this are my first source for information.

BTW our shelter-in-place measures show how extremely fragile our supply chains are; toilet paper production hasn't been redirected from inactive businesses to retail outlets yet.

Part of the fragility and shortsidedness is online sites locked to instant gratification (two day delivery or less) - back and repeat schedule ordering capability is very hard to find.

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Posted by tree68 on Friday, March 20, 2020 5:02 PM

PJS1
These lockdowns, which are an overreaction, will ultimately lead to a societal breakdown, if indeed it has not happened already.  Widespread hoarding and cheating are occurring now Texas.  

NY's governor is locking down the state starting Sunday.  I've been saying right along that this is a test.  The threat of the virus is real.  The restrictions, I feel, are a test on how much they can pull off before people push back.

LarryWhistling
Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) 
Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you
My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date
Come ride the rails with me!
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Posted by BaltACD on Friday, March 20, 2020 4:46 PM

There is a retirement community near my house.  Today they had a 'Closed to Visitors' sign prominately displayed.

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

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Posted by PJS1 on Friday, March 20, 2020 4:43 PM

greyhounds
 There are exceptions.  We're allowed to go get groceries for example.  If only toilet paper and cooking oil were available.   I'd guess going out to watch trains by yourself or going fishing alone are forbidden.  

I'm 69 years old and I already was taking measures to limit personal contact.  At some point the government is going to have to trust us to take care of ourselves. 

Now that many of my normal activities have been curtailed or limited, I drive to my favorite train watch spot, which is about 35 miles from home.  It is isolated, so I rarely see anyone there, and I go by myself.  I have tried to get the cat interested in train watching, but she is having none of it.

If the Governor of Texas, who appears to have retained some sanity in this situation, locks down Texas, I can tell whoever tries to enforce it that I am going to the grocery store, which is just up the road from my train watching spot.  

These lockdowns, which are an overreaction, will ultimately lead to a societal breakdown, if indeed it has not happened already.  Widespread hoarding and cheating are occurring now Texas.  

Rio Grande Valley, CFI,CFII

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Posted by Flintlock76 on Friday, March 20, 2020 4:42 PM

SD70Dude

Too late Wayne, the panic already happened.  The empty store shelves are proof of that. 

Nothing like a good old-fashioned mass-hysteria!

 

Yeah 'Dude, I know.  Captain Eddie Rickenbacker said it a long time ago, "Never underestimate the power of hysteria!" 

All those empty TP shelves, among others.  Just unbelieveable!

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Posted by SD70Dude on Friday, March 20, 2020 4:39 PM

Too late Wayne, the panic already happened.  The empty store shelves are proof of that. 

Nothing like a good old-fashioned mass-hysteria!

Greetings from Alberta

-an Articulate Malcontent

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Posted by Flintlock76 on Friday, March 20, 2020 4:34 PM

I'm guessing, and it's just a guess, that a "tipping point's" going to come sooner or later.  What I mean by that is people are going to say "Enough already!  Yes we know some are in danger, yes we have to slow or stop the spread, yes we have to take precautions, but STOP treating us like children!  And can the 'All coronavirus all the time' news reporting!  You're not helping matters, you're inciting panic!  Especially in those prone to panic anyway!"

But I could be guessing wrong.  I'm not infallable.

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Posted by greyhounds on Friday, March 20, 2020 4:18 PM

The governor of Illinois just impossed a "Shelter in Place" order for the entire state starting at 5:00 PM tomorrow.  So, that letter from the UP could be necessary.

I have no medical training.  So I can't really judge the propriety of this drastic measure.  But I know I don't like it.  Taken literally it means "Don't leave home."

There are exceptions.  We're allowed to go get groceries for example.  If only toilet paper and cooking oil were available.   I'd guess going out to watch trains by yourself or going fishing alone are forbidden.  

I'm 69 years old and I already was taking measures to limit personal contact.  At some point the government is going to have to trust us to take care of ourselves. 

"By many measures, the U.S. freight rail system is the safest, most efficient and cost effective in the world." - Federal Railroad Administration, October, 2009. I'm just your average, everyday, uncivilized howling "anti-government" critic of mass government expenditures for "High Speed Rail" in the US. And I'm gosh darn proud of that.
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Posted by Overmod on Friday, March 20, 2020 2:15 PM

I have been, and continue to be, a firm and enthusiastic proponent of the RealID program for licenses.  And for its use in certain forms of preferential access to Federally-overseen things, particularly flight security (or the likely-impending extension of "TSA" functions to Amdreck.)

It is as ridiculous for RealIDs to become acceptable 'alternate ID' to private government facilities as it would be -- as was seriously proposed here a few years ago -- to make your library card an acceptable form of voter registration.  I had my absolute and total fill of any state-issued form of ID 'counting' on a Federal level long ago, in part with experience in New Jersey with fraud, and in Tennessee with attempted outright terrorism.  Any system that does not involve dynamic realtime verification of personal identity backed up with private identifiers -- in other words anything that requires you to tote some piece of paper that keeps you from arrest or worse -- is not an answer to the fundamental things a "RealID" should enable.

And no, it shouldn't display your SSN directly or allow someone to hack a chip or inadequately-dereferenced database to harvest it...

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Posted by samfp1943 on Friday, March 20, 2020 12:24 PM

[quote user="Ulrich"]

Too bad they make you feel unimportant in normal times. Most probably know crews are important, but "the system" is setup to not show it..i.e., no positive feedback.. only negative. Good article in the most recent Trains issue that sums it up.. 

 [/quote]
 
  I guess it is about time to "throw a penalty flag" Off Topic and remind us of the 'new'  DRIVER's License system of REAL ID's  that is working its way around the ole USA these days...Dots - SignBang Head
 
"...The "what" & "why" of the REAL ID Act.."

The REAL ID Act was passed by Congress in 2005 with the goal to “set minimum security standards for license issuance and production.” The Act established identical requirements for state-issued licenses and ID cards nationwide. While it is not a "national ID," per se, it does provide federal authorities with the assurance that the holder of a REAL ID-compliant license or identification card has met the level of security it deems appropriate for access to certain types of federally overseen locations..."

See link @ https://www.dmv.org/drivers-license/real-id

 My guess ,is that this is not going too far with many employers, OR the railroads...But it sure adds anorther level of the gobernment bureaucrats getting into/ or onto our citizenry....Sigh

 

 


 

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Posted by Ulrich on Friday, March 20, 2020 8:10 AM

Too bad they make you feel unimportant in normal times. Most probably know crews are important, but "the system" is setup to not show it..i.e., no positive feedback.. only negative. Good article in the most recent Trains issue that sums it up.. 

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Posted by SD70Dude on Friday, March 20, 2020 3:40 AM

CN seems to be taking this seriously.  They claim they are actually going to clean the locomotive cabs!

Greetings from Alberta

-an Articulate Malcontent

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